Free Agent Power Rankings

In the four weeks since the first edition of our Free Agent Power Rankings, two players listed (albeit, as honorable mentions) have inked extensions, as defensive end Derek Wolfe agreed to a four-year, $36.75MM pact with the Broncos, while fellow defensive end Mike Daniels signed a four-year, $42MM deal with the Packers. There’s still an impressive crop of 2016 free agents heading for the open market, however, so let’s check in on the status of the top unrestricted free agents, ranked by projected guaranteed money.

1. Von Miller, LB: Miller did nothing over the final four weeks of the season to lose his top spot, picking up two sacks (to finish the year with 11) while being named both a first-team All Pro and and Pro Bowler. Nothing has changed regarding his contract expectations, but the Broncos’ quarterback situation could have an effect on Miller’s status. Denver probably won’t have to worry about using the franchise tag on Brock Osweiler now that he’s lost his starting job, meaning the tag will be in play for Miller.

2. Alshon Jeffery, WR: Jeffery missed two of the season’s final four games, and was ultimately placed on injured reserve prior to Week 17. He only played in nine games on the year, but it’s hard to think that his nagging injuries will affect his free agent stock, as most teams will likely assume he’ll be at full health by next season. And Jeffery was productive when he played, averaging nearly 90 yards per game, and the Bears are open to an extension. Jeffery doesn’t sound as amenable to such an offer, however, so the threat of the franchise tag looms.

3. Kirk Cousins, QB: Perhaps no player in the league did more over the last four weeks of the regular season to help their stock than Cousins, who completed 74% of his passes for nearly 1,200 yards, while posting a 12:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio to go along with a 134.0 quarterback rating. Washington has made it clear that it will retain Cousins one way or another, and they’ve indicated that a long-term extension is the preferred option. Just 27 years old and having shown he can serve as a franchise QB, Cousins could ask for the Ryan Tannehill contract ($77MM total, $21.5MM guaranteed) — or more.

4. Kelechi Osemele, G/T: Osemele moves up from sixth to fourth primarily due to the Ravens’ decision to play him at left tackle for the final three games of the season. Already an outstanding guard, the ability to handle tackle only increases Osemele’s value, and Baltimore agrees, as a report last month indicated that the club would be willing to pay up for a quality left tackle (whereas they probably couldn’t justify retaining Osemele as a guard given that they’ve already extended Marshal Yanda). Osemele himself sounds optimistic about his chances to stay, noting that he had a positive end-of-the-year conversation with GM Ozzie Newsome.

5. Josh Norman, CB: Compared to Norman’s outstanding first three-quarters of the regular season, it’s difficult to call his final four games anything other than a disappointment. He was still a solid corner, to be sure, but he wasn’t the top-notch standout he had been during Weeks 1-13. For example, when I listed Norman on the first edition of these rankings, he graded as the league’s No. 1 corner, per Pro Football Focus — but he finished the season at No. 13, indicating a precipitous dropoff. At 28, he’s a little older than a typical first-time free agent, so he might need to set his sights a little lower than the Richard Sherman/Patrick Peterson territory.

6. Muhammad Wilkerson, DE: Wilkerson suffered an unfortunate injury in Week 17, breaking his leg in a loss against the Bills that prevented the Jets from earning a playoff berth. He should be able to fully recover by the start of the regular season, but there is a chance that he’ll miss some training camp activity. New York has expressed an interest in re-signing Wilkerson, but with a defensive line already chock full of talent, the club’s best route might be assigning him the franchise tag and then attempting to trade him, a possibility that has been floated.

7. Sam Bradford, QB: Bradford’s first season in Philadelphia is a little hard to value production-wise. He ranked 11th in completion percentage, 18th in passing yards, 22nd in touchdowns, and 26th in quarterback rating. Pro Football Focus graded him as the 11th-best QB, but he ranked just 26th in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (a metric that grades performance against replacement level). Bradford didn’t put up the type of numbers that some thought he might in Chip Kelly‘s offense, but the fact remains that QBs get paid. With so many teams looking for mere competency at the position, Bradford will earn a nice contract.

8. Cordy Glenn, T: Recently-extended Bills GM Doug Whaley said last week that re-signing both Glenn and fellow offensive lineman Richie Incognito would be a “major point of emphasis” this offseason. While Incognito should only require a short-term deal, Glenn will want both a longer contract and more money. The 26-year-old Glenn was outstanding this season (PFF’s No. 10 tackle) and is nothing if not durable — he’s only missed three games in his career, all during his rookie season.

9. Russell Okung, T: Okung has name value after being a former top-10 pick, but his play has continued to deteriorate (he slid all the way to No. 32 among tackles per PFF).Okung will probably point to the extensions signed by Trent Williams and Tyron Smith as he negotiates his next deal, but the fact is that he’s not that caliber of player. I wonder if he might get a little bump simply by being a part of successful team in Seattle, but I predict he’ll come up short of his contractual target.

10. Eric Berry, S: Berry has moved down a few spots since the previous edition of our rankings, but that’s not because of his production. Safeties just don’t get paid like other positions included here do, and while Berry could certainly hit the $9MM/year mark, his guarantees likely won’t match what the quarterbacks, tackles, pass-rushers, corners, and receivers earn. Still, it should be all good news for Berry this offseason, and he’s certainly the favorite for Comeback Player of the Year.

Dropped out: Brock Osweiler, QB.

There are still four weeks left in the regular season, but let’s turn our attention to the offseason for a moment, and take a look at the first edition of our 2016 NFL Free Agent Power Rankings. This list — compiled using our list of 2016 free agents — is comprised only of upcoming unrestricted free agents, and is sorted by projected guaranteed money.

1. Von Miller, LB: The 26-year-old Miller has the highest draft pedigree of any player on this list, having been selected second overall back in 2011. He’s certainly lived up to that draft billing, posting 58 sacks in 68 starts during his five years in the league. The advanced metrics like Miller as well, as he grades as the fourth-best edge defender in the NFL per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), which also rates him as the best pure pass-rusher at his position. PFR’s Luke Adams examined Miller’s extension case last November, projecting a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $75MM, but given that Miller has continued his high level of production in the year-plus since, I think it’s fair to argue that he’ll garner even more. His target will be Ndamukong Suh‘s ~$19MM average salary, and while he might not get there, $18MM annually isn’t out of the question.

2. Alshon Jeffery, WR: Injuries have hampered Jeffery thus in 2015, as he’s been limited to playing in only seven of 12 games. But when he has been active, he’s been as consistent as ever, averaging nearly 100 yards per game through the air while acting as the only reliable option in the Bears’ passing attack. Jeffery is as good a candidate as any to receive a franchise tag next spring, as he’s not only the real option for such a tender on the Chicago roster, but he’s easily the best receiver of the 2016 free agent class. Such a tender will obviously hinder his market value (at a one-year cost of about $14.5MM, per Joel Corry’s projections), but otherwise he’d be in line for a Julio Jones-esque deal: five years at more than $14MM per season.

3. Josh Norman, CB: Like Jeffery, Norman will almost certainly be franchise-tagged, essentially locking him onto the Panthers’ roster while the two sides attempt to knock out an extension. It’s been a true breakout season for Norman, who turns 28 years old on Tuesday — through Week 13, he grades as the best corner in the league (per PFF), just a touch better than Tyrann Mathieu. I looked at Norman’s case for an extension last month, arguing that Norman has certainly earned the going rate for top cornerbacks: five years, $70MM or so. That $14MM AAV would put him right in line with the league’s other top defensive backs, such as Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman, and Patrick Peterson.

4. Muhammad Wilkerson, DE: Trade rumors surrounded Wilkerson during the draft following the Jets’ selection of Leonard Williams, who was added to an already loaded New York defensive line that also fields Sheldon Richardson and Damon Harrison. Wilkerson ultimately stuck with Gang Green, but cut off extension talks before camp, determined to play out his current contract. Not only has Wilkerson continued to exhibit his high level of play, but he’s remarkably active, having played the fifth-most snaps of any defensive lineman in the league. He’s another candidate for the franchise tag, as he’ll be likely be looking for a contract that makes him the second highest-paid 3-4 defensive end (after J.J. Watt). PFR’s Rob DiRe profiled Wilkerson — and his case for a new deal — in July.

5. Russell Okung, T: The 28-year-old Okung hasn’t always been the most consistent or the most durable player, as he missed an average of four games during the first five years of his career. But he’s got a first-round pedigree, and he’s been a part of one of the more successful clubs in the NFL during the past few seasons (including perhaps the preeminent running game). As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap noted earlier this week, Okung — playing on one of the last surviving contracts signed under the old CBA — has already set a floor for talks with his six-year, $48.5MM rookie deal. He probably won’t match the $13MM annual salary reached by Trent Williams earlier this year, but Okung could aim for the second tier of tackle contracts ($10-11MM per year). I looked at Okung as an extension candidate earlier this year.

6. Kelechi Osemele, G: The Ravens likely won’t re-sign Osemele, having already handed fellow guard Marshal Yanda a four-year, $32MM deal earlier this year. I actually thought Yanda, who might be the single best interior lineman in the NFL, took less than he was worth, and I expect Osemele to not only aim higher, but seek to top the five-year, $40MM ($15.75MM guaranteed) contract inked by Mike Iupati last offseason, a topic I broached in my analysis of Osemele and Yanda’s extension arguments. He’d be worth the money, as he ranks as the fifth-best guard in the league per PFF (Yanda, ever the stalwart, ranks first).

7. Cordy Glenn, T: Glenn has perhaps the least name value of any on this list, as the former second-round pick has spent the entirety of his career in the relative anonymous confines of Buffalo. He’s been incredibly durable (just three missed starts in his career, all during his rookie season), and he’s performing quite well in his platform year, grading as the sixth-best tackle in the league per PFF. Glenn is solid option, not a star, but despite the decreasing disparity in importance between left and right tackles, those who protect the blind side still earn the bigger contracts.

8. Eric Berry, S: Perhaps the best story in the NFL this season, Berry is not only cancer-free about a year after being diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, but he’s playing the best football of his career, ranking as the league’s best overall safety per PFF. I expect he’ll return to the Chiefs, the club that drafted him with the fifth pick in 2010 (and the only team he’s ever played for). But there could be a hefty contract available on the free agent market, as safety salaries have steadily risen in recent years. Like Okung, he already scored a large rookie deal (more than $8MM annually), so he’ll probably be looking for more this time around. He’ll probably slide in just under Earl Thomas and Devin McCourty at $9MM per year or so.

9. Brock Osweiler, QB: The first wild card on the list, Osweiler has only three career starts to his name, but he is set up to earn a significant contract in free agency. His numbers thus far aren’t world-beating — he’s averaging just 208 yards passing per game while completing about 61% of his passes — but the dearth of quarterback talent in the NFL at the moment cannot be overstated. Any signal-caller who displays even a modicum of competence is potentially in line for a nice deal (let’s not forget Nick Foles garnered $12MM in guarantees this offseason). Also in Osweiler’s favor: Denver will likely use its franchise tag on Miller, meaning Osweiler could hit the open market unfettered.

10. Kirk Cousins, QB: The fact that the NFL has seen more of Cousins than Osweiler is, in my mind, a strike against the Washington quarterback — in other words, the league has seen the poor game tape of Cousins, where as Osweiler is still mostly projection. Still, there’s no denying that Cousins has played better football this year, and while he probably isn’t a candidate for the franchise tag, I’d be surprised if Washington doesn’t seek to work out a long-term deal.

Also considered: Kelvin Beachum, Mike Daniels, Malik Jackson, Olivier Vernon, Eric Weddle, Derek Wolfe.