HEADLINES

2015 Free Agent Market Series

Free Agent Market For Offensive Tackles

February 15th, 2015 at 8:29pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to offensive tackles. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

A year ago, the free agent class of offensive tackles included a handful of solid left tackles, including Branden Albert, Eugene Monroe, and Jared Veldheer, whose new deals all exceeded $35MM in total value. This time around, it would be a surprise if any tackles signed for that much, but it’s not out of the question.

Roos and Dunlap have shown they’re capable of protecting a quarterback’s blind side, and while Roos may very well end up retiring, Dunlap should do well in free agency, assuming he makes it there. Still, it may be Bulaga, a right tackle, who lands the biggest payday of this year’s class. The Packers lineman, who was recently profiled by our Rory Parks, turns just 26 next month, and is coming off a very strong year. While teams may be reluctant to try him on the left side, his new deal should rival the top contracts signed by right tackles.

Newton, Free, Barksdale, and Harris all played right tackle in 2014 as well, and their performances ranged from solid to above-average. Like Bulaga, they may not be trusted to protect a signal-caller’s blind side, but teams looking for stability on the right side should be interested. As for Bell, he’s the trickiest case among this group — he has been a starter for a playoff team in Carolina in each of the last two seasons, but his Pro Football Focus grades weren’t great on the right side and were even worse on the left in 2014 (subscription required). He should find a starting job, but perhaps for a more modest salary than some others on this list.

Other unrestricted options:

If a club targeting an offensive tackle in free agency misses out on a player in our first tier, it may make sense to wait for the draft rather than relying on a player from this group to be a starter. By my count, Oher was the only player here to see more than 600 offensive snaps in 2014, and he was quickly cut by the Titans, who signed him less than a year ago.

Still, there’s a little potential here. Parnell hasn’t seen the field much, acting as a reserve on the NFL’s best offensive line in Dallas, but he has done well with the playing time he has received, and another team may envision a larger role for him. Fox, Reitz, and Winston are among the other players who should be able to provide respectable production in the event of injuries to starters.

For the most part, the players in this group will be signed as the third or fourth tackle on a team’s depth chart, and won’t be relied upon to play major roles in 2015.

Restricted FAs:

Barclay represents the most intriguing name in this group — he started at right tackle for the Packers in 2013, but missed the entire 2014 campaign with an ACL injury. Green Bay has to make a decision on 2014’s right tackle (Bulaga) as well, and it seems logical that the club will keep one or the other. If the club manages to work out a deal with Bulaga, Barclay could garner some interest as a bounce-back candidate.

The Vikings’ Harris filled in at right tackle for the team down the stretch and was solid, so I expect Minnesota to retain him, even if he heads back to the bench. Sowell and New Orleans’ Harris don’t figure to receive RFA tenders.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

Free Agent Market For Tight Ends

February 13th, 2015 at 10:27am CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to tight ends. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Coming into the 2014 season, Cameron and Clay looked like potential top-10 tight ends in the NFL, but both players took a step back over the last few months. Cameron’s drop-off was particularly precipitous, due in part to concussion problems — the Browns tight end caught just 24 passes after racking up 80 receptions in 2013. Still, both players have proven they’re capable of being reliable pass-catchers, so I expect we’ll see them draw plenty of interest from teams that can’t afford Thomas.

Thomas, of course, is the crown jewel of this year’s free agent class, and while he’d be a lock to be franchised by many teams, the Broncos may not have the flexibility to make such a move, since they’ll likely to have to use that tag on Demaryius Thomas. Battling injuries himself down the stretch, the Denver tight end might have seen his stock dip a little after coming out of the gates on fire in 2014, but he should still easily land the biggest contract this winter of any player at the position — a top-five TE salary is definitely within reach.

As for Gresham and Paul, their career arcs look quite different thus far, though they find themselves in similar situations this offseason. Gresham has always put up solid receiving numbers for the Bengals, but has never fully fit in Cincinnati, especially with the team looking to give Tyler Eifert a larger role in the offense. Paul, meanwhile, was nonexistent in Washington’s passing game until 2014, when he broke out with 39 catches and 507 yards. With Jordan Reed still under contract in D.C., Paul may be the odd man out.

Other unrestricted options:

Clubs looking for a pass catcher at tight end should focus primarily on those players in the first group, because there aren’t many here that could be relied upon for consistent production. Still, TE is a position at which pass-catching isn’t necessarily the be-all, end-all to being an effective player, and several of the guys in this group can contribute positive value even without running routes.

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Fells, Green, Pascoe, and Spaeth all graded among the league’s best run blockers at the position. In fact, buoyed primarily by their strong run-blocking performances, Fells, Green, and Spaeth all ranked among PFF’s top 20 tight ends, placing well ahead of notable receiving TEs such as Heath Miller, Antonio Gates, and Coby Fleener. A club may not want to head into the 2014 season with Fells atop its depth chart at the position, but he’s certainly a respectable No. 2 option.

2015 may also be the last chance for Finley to make a comeback — having missed the better part of the last two seasons due to neck issues, the former Packers tight end may simply decide to call it a career and try to collect on his insurance policy. However, if he’s cleared by doctors to return to the field, I’d expect him to try to catch on with another team this year, and if he can prove he’s healthy, his upside should intrigue suitors.

Restricted FAs:

Considering these three players have combined for 32 career receptions, I don’t expect the bidding on their services to be all that competitive this offseason. It would be a surprise if any of them even received a restricted free agent tender from their current clubs, though they could still return to those teams at a lesser salary.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

Free Agent Market For Wide Receivers

February 12th, 2015 at 8:54am CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to wide receivers. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

No other position has the same sort of star power at the top as this year’s free agent group of receivers does. In fact, in our last installment of 2015’s free agent power rankings, four of our top eight players were wideouts, with Bryant, Thomas, Maclin, and Cobb all making the cut.

Still, it’s probably fair to assume that Bryant and Thomas, at least, won’t reach the open market. Their respective teams have the franchise tag at their disposal, and intend to use it if a long-term agreement can’t be reached. Maclin and Cobb, on the other hand, may not warrant a tag, so they’ll be worth watching as free agency nears. If they make it to the open market, long-term deals worth $10MM+ annually aren’t out of the question, considering how many receiver-needy teams have cap room to spare.

While those four players are probably in a tier of their own, Smith isn’t far behind, and Crabtree is only two years removed from an 1,100-yard season. The rest of the list is a mix of reliable veterans (Royal, Washington, Wayne), and players with some upside (Britt, Nicks, Shorts), though teams likely won’t want to make too significant an investment on a guy from either of those groups.

Other unrestricted options:

You could make the case that Welker should be in the top tier of free agent wideouts this offseason, but his history of head injuries, combined with declining production, has him mulling the possibility of retirement, and I don’t think he’s the same guy he was even two or three seasons ago. Nonetheless, he’s one of the more intriguing names among this group, which features a number of players who are either past their primes or have yet to fully realize theirs.

If you’re looking for a player with some upside here, you could do worse than the two Raiders, Brown and Denarius Moore. Jernigan, who turns 26 this year, is also an interesting option — he was poised to assume a much larger role in the Giants’ offense in 2014 before a foot injury cut his season short. Williams also may have something left in the tank after a lost season in Buffalo, but a team shouldn’t invest more than a minimum-salary contract to find out.

In fact, that probably applies to most players on this list. There’s an outside chance a club could find an impact performer in this group, but most of these guys will end up no higher than third or fourth on a team’s depth chart. Others may not even rank that highly, contributing primarily on special teams or in the return game rather than an offense.

Restricted FAs:

It’s not easy to pry away a restricted free agent from a team that wants to keep him, and I assume that will be the case for the more noteworthy names among this year’s RFA wideouts. Guys like Beasley, Holmes, Johnson, Kearse, and Streater should pique the interest of teams in need of wideouts, but I imagine their current clubs will submit contract tenders to bring them back.

In my view, Holmes is the most interesting player in this group, but considering how much cap room the Raiders have, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Raiders placed a higher tender on the 26-year-old to discourage rival suitors from courting him. Typically, a minimum-level RFA tender is enough to scare off potential bidders, but for less than $1MM, Oakland could increase its offer to a second-round tender, meaning that any club hoping to sign Holmes would have to part with a second-round pick to land him.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

Free Agent Market For Running Backs

February 10th, 2015 at 4:06pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to running backs. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

While the free agent market for quarterbacks lacks a real difference-maker, that’s not the case at running back. The position may have become devalued in recent years, but the lack of impact deals in free agency last winter could largely be attributed to the lack of impact players available. If the NFL’s leading rusher (Murray) hits the open market, he’ll do very well, despite potential concerns about his 2014 workload, or about a production drop-off behind a new offensive line.

Murray isn’t the only potential starter in this group. Mathews and Ingram have been inconsistent since entering the league as first-round draft picks, but have shown plenty of promise, and should provide value if they can stay healthy. Gore and Forsett will both be on the wrong side of 30 by the end of 2015, but are coming off very impressive 2014 campaigns, and I’d bet on them having something left in the tank.

Outside of Murray, the most intriguing name on this list might be Spiller. Like Mathews and Ingram, he has been plagued by injuries in recent years, but his big-play ability makes him very appealing, especially if he comes on the cheap. I could envision Spiller approaching free agency the same way that Jeremy Maclin did a year ago, taking a one-year deal with the hopes of having a big season and landing a more sizable contract the following year.

Rounding out this top tier: Bradshaw and Ridley, who will look to return from season-ending injuries; and Helu and Vereen, who will appeal to teams looking to add a receiving threat out of the backfield.

Other unrestricted options:

Most of the notable names on this list have huge question marks hovering over them as they prepare to enter the open market. McFadden has averaged 3.4 yards per carry or less for three consecutive seasons; Moreno is coming off elbow and ACL injuries that ended his year prematurely; Tate played for three different teams in 2014 and didn’t do much to impress at any of those three stops; and Rice’s production appeared to be on the decline even before he lost a season dealing with the aftermath of his domestic violence incident.

Are there worthwhile backups and change-of-pace options among this group? Sure. McKnight and Antone Smith are a couple of home-run hitters who could shine for the right team, and Powell has shown some potential. There are also several veterans on this list who could contribute on special teams, either in kick coverage or in the return game, which will give them a little more value than the more one-dimensional backs.

Still, given the going rate for running backs these days, many of these players will likely sign minimum-salary contracts with modest guarantees for the 2015 season, if they land with a team at all.

Restricted FAs:

In many cases, these young backs are insurance policies for veteran starters, and while they may not be as cheap as restricted free agents as they were during their first three seasons, their respective teams should have interest in bringing them back.

I anticipate that players like Cadet, Polk, and Dunbar, who have spent all three seasons with their current teams, will be good candidates for the low-end restricted free agent tender. Rainey and Todman should also receive tenders, and may be the backs in this group most likely to draw interest from rival suitors. Neither player figures to head into 2015 as the top running back on his team’s depth chart, but they’ve both been productive in their limited opportunities.

Asiata is perhaps the most recognizable name here, if only because his nine touchdowns in 2014 made him a popular – if unreliable – fantasy football commodity. The 27-year-old has only averaged 3.5 yards per carry in over 200 career attempts, and is older than most of the other players on this list. But with Adrian Peterson a good bet to be traded or released by the Vikings, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Minnesota bring back Asiata.

Previously:

Free Agent Market For Quarterbacks

February 9th, 2015 at 2:32pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position, starting today with quarterbacks. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Outside of Moore and Ponder – who have combined for more than 60 career NFL starts in past seasons – everyone in this group saw at least a little time in a starting lineup during the 2014 season. Of course, many of them didn’t finish the season as starters, or were only forced into duty due to injuries.

Nonetheless, if a club is looking to the free agent market for a veteran to compete for a starting job with its incumbent QB, this is probably the first group of players that team will consider. Sanchez and Hoyer are perhaps the top available options here, as both players showed several flashes of effectiveness as they led their respective teams to records of .500 or better during their starts.

Other intriguing names on this list include Mallett, who backed up Tom Brady for several seasons before getting a brief look in Houston; Locker and Ponder, 2011 first-rounders who were relegated to backup roles during the final year of their rookie contracts; and Moore, who has been one of the league’s most highly-paid No. 2 QBs for the last two seasons.

Other unrestricted options:

Whether you’re looking for a veteran who can play in a pinch (Campbell, Hasselbeck) or a younger option with some upside (Taylor, Tolzien), there’s something for everyone in this group — albeit not many names that inspire excitement.

McCoy and Clausen had some good moments during their limited playing time in 2014, and Jackson hasn’t been terrible during his stints as a starter. Still, none of those three players should be more than backups at this point in their playing careers, and the same goes for virtually everyone else on this list as well. In some cases, these guys were listed third on their respective teams’ depth charts.

I’d expect a good percentage of these players to return to their current teams, or to follow an old coach or coordinator to his new club. When it comes to backup quarterbacks, familiarity with an offensive system is crucial, and would certainly be a tiebreaker if the gap in talent between two players is marginal. Flynn might be the best example of this, as he hasn’t had much success anywhere besides Green Bay.

Restricted FAs:

Davis and Lindley saw some action in 2014, but neither player was overly effective — Lindley, in particular, had a ton of trouble moving the Cardinals’ offense when he was forced into action after injuries knocked out Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton. Generally, if a team wants to keep a restricted free agent, that team has most of the leverage, so if one of these players is wearing a different uniform in 2015, I expect it’ll be because his club had little to no interest in re-signing him.