2026 NFL Offseason Outlook Series
Pro Football Rumors is breaking down how all 32 teams’ offseason blueprints are shaping up. Going forward, the Offseason Outlook series is exclusive to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, and that link provides details on how to sign up for an annual membership.
This post will be updated as more Outlooks are published.
AFC East
- Buffalo Bills
- Miami Dolphins
- New England Patriots
- New York Jets
AFC North
- Baltimore Ravens
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Cleveland Browns
- Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South
- Houston Texans
- Indianapolis Colts
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Tennessee Titans
AFC West
NFC East
- Dallas Cowboys
- New York Giants
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Washington Commanders
NFC North
- Chicago Bears
- Detroit Lions
- Green Bay Packers
- Minnesota Vikings
NFC South
- Atlanta Falcons
- Carolina Panthers
- New Orleans Saints
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West
- Arizona Cardinals
- Los Angeles Rams
- San Francisco 49ers
- Seattle Seahawks
Colts QB Anthony Richardson Requests Trade; Mutual Vikings Interest?
Signs continue to point to Anthony Richardson playing elsewhere in 2026. The embattled quarterback has requested a trade, James Boyd of The Athletic reports. 
To little surprise, ESPN’s Stephen Holder adds the Colts have given Richardson’s camp permission to seek a trade. The former No. 4 pick’s value will not be particularly high given how his NFL career has played out so far. Nevertheless, the lack of established QBs on the market this offseason could lead to at least some interest.
When speaking at the Combine yesterday, Colts GM Chris Ballard offered praise for Richardson. The 23-year-old has only made 15 starts and 17 appearances during the regular season so far. An orbital bone fracture kept Richardson sidelined through the end of the 2025 campaign, although Ballard said he has now been cleared for football activities. Boyd confirms Richardson has regained full vision in his right eye.
That will be a welcomed development for all involved, but it remains to be seen how many teams will be willing to proceed with a trade acquisition in this case. In December, a trio of NFL staffers pegged Richardson’s value at a fourth-round pick (the cost paid by the Cowboys when they acquired Trey Lance). A deal along those lines would obviously represent a massive disappointment for Indianapolis, but it would pave the way for Riley Leonard to handle backup duties in 2026. Of course, the Colts are in the midst of negotiations on a new Daniel Jones contract to ensure he remains atop the depth chart moving forward.
As for potential Richardson landing spots, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network points to Minnesota as one to watch. He reports there is a mutual interest between the Vikings and Richardson. Kevin O’Connell has established a track record of quarterback development during his time as Minnesota’s head coach, and taking on another reclamation project would make plenty of sense. Given J.J. McCarthy‘s struggles so far, the Vikings are expected to bring in competition under center this spring.
That could entail pursuing a more experienced option on the open market like Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr. Alternatively, the Vikings could look at Richardson as a buy-low candidate capable of winning the QB1 gig for 2026 while McCarthy develops. Richardson has one year remaining on his rookie contract and he is set to carry a cap charge of $10.82MM in 2026. A trade would essentially create an even split of that figure between cap savings and dead money for the Colts.
Colts, S Nick Cross In Talks; LB Zaire Franklin On Roster Bubble?
Making no secret of Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce being their top priorities, the Colts have big decisions to make in the coming days. The quarterback and 1,000-yard wide receiver’s statuses point Nick Cross out the door.
The former third-round pick has been a quality starter at safety over the past two seasons, and while multiple factors (the Jones and Pierce matters among them) could point the young DB out of town, Chris Ballard said (via the Indianapolis Star’s Nathan Brown) he has spoken with Cross’ agent about a possible re-signing.
“I’m proud of Nick; I’m happy for Nick. Look, sometimes for players, there’s going to come a point where you and I don’t agree, and you don’t like me because of finances,” Ballard said during an appearance on The Fan Morning Show. “There’s this big pie, and I can slice it up and give you a piece of the pie, but someone (else) might be willing to give you a bigger piece, and if that happens, we’ve both done our jobs.
“We’ve done our jobs developing you, and you’ve done your job taking the coaching and getting better each and every year, and you deserve that opportunity. So we’ll see what the future holds with Nick. He made it to free agency on a high note, and we’ll see how that works out.”
Not only is the QB-WR duo taking precedence here, but the Colts (projected $35.7MM in cap space, per OverTheCap) already made tremendous commitments in the secondary last year. They gave Camryn Bynum a four-year, $60MM deal and handed Charvarius Ward a three-year, $54MM contract in free agency. Months later, Indianapolis traded two first-round picks and Adonai Mitchell for Sauce Gardner, whom the Jets had just given a four-year, $120.4MM extension. With Kenny Moore on a three-year, $30MM contract, there does not seem to be room for Cross in Indy’s secondary on a second contract.
The Colts traded a 2023 third-round pick to move into the 2022 third round for Cross, who only made four starts over his first two seasons. From 2024-25, however, the Maryland product was a prolific tackler (266 combined stops) and registered 11 tackles for loss in that span. Cross, 24, started all 34 Colts games from 2024-25 and will be poised to land a nice second contract.
That said, this is a crowded safety market. Big money will not be available for the full lot of starter-level FAs. Jaquan Brisker, Bryan Cook, Alohi Gilman, Jalen Thompson, Kamren Curl, Coby Bryant, Jaylinn Hawkins and Andre Cisco are all 20-something starters unsigned. Veterans Kevin Byard, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Kyle Dugger and Donovan Wilson are among the older starter-caliber cogs headed to the market. Some teams in need of safety help will benefit from this glut, which presents a buyer’s market. Though, Cross (25 in September) being on the young end will benefit him.
Age may be working against one of Indianapolis’ core defenders. Ballard did not ensure Zaire Franklin would be back with the Colts for a ninth season. Franklin (30 in July) is tied to a three-year, $31.26MM contract. The Colts would save $9MM by cutting their top tackler, who is due an $8.24MM base salary in 2026 — the final year of his deal.
“I think you guys all know my feelings for Zaire Franklin,” Ballard said, via Brown. “We have a very close relationship. I thought he played good football, and the addition of Pratt, when we got him into the mix, he ended up adding a much needed will that we needed. The future, we’ll see. Pratt’s up. Zaire’s under contract, so we’ll see how that ends up playing out.”
When injuries slowed Shaquille Leonard, the Colts received a boost from another member of their deep 2018 draft class. A seventh-rounder out of Syracuse, Franklin has been a regular starter since the 2021 season. Primarily a special-teamer prior to that, Franklin became a late-blooming LB who landed three Colts contracts. He has two 170-plus-tackle seasons under his belt. After a 179-tackle 2023, Franklin led the NFL with 173 in 2024 en route to second-team All-Pro acclaim.
The Colts made a change at linebacker last year by letting E.J. Speed walk. They added ex-Lou Anarumo charge Germaine Pratt in-season. Pro Football Focus did not like the Franklin-Anarumo fit, ranking him as the NFL’s second-worst linebacker regular in 2025. Franklin, 29, would still generate considerable FA interest if released. With money perhaps needed for a franchise tag, veteran defenders like Franklin and perhaps Grover Stewart will be places to look for cap space.
WR Alec Pierce Expected To Have Strong Market
Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce is expected to draw heavy interest in free agency with several teams already interested in signing him.
In fact, Pierce is expected to receive more interest – though not a bigger contract – than fellow Colts pending free agent Daniel Jones, per ESPN’s Stephen Holder. The veteran quarterback has an uncertain outlook for the 2026 season as he recovers from a torn Achilles, but the Colts see him as their long-term starter. Other teams may be less certain, especially with a number of quarterbacks – including Anthony Richardson – also coming available this offseason.
The wide receiver market is less crowded. With the Cowboys using the franchise tag on George Pickens, Pierce will be the most valuable one available. The Colts might be more justified using the franchise or transition tag on him rather than Jones.
The transition tag, projected by OverTheCap to be $25MM, certainly makes sense. It is easy to see Pierce reaching that AAV on the open market. He is an excellent deep threat, having led the league in yards per catch in the last two years, and rounded out his game in 2025. He is also just 25 years old and clearly has the potential to grow further.
However, the tag would take up a significant portion of the Colts’ current salary cap space. They would have to make more room via restructures and cuts, though there are several candidates. Agreeing to an extension with Pierce would reduce his cap hit, but the transition tag would give him a chance to test his market.
The franchise tag, however, would likely keep Pierce in Indianapolis. Other clubs are unlikely to be willing to move two first-round picks and hand him a contract the Colts would not match. The franchise tag is projected to be $28.8MM, which would raise the floor in extension negotiations. But if Pierce’s value is approaching that figure anyway, Indianapolis may be best served by keeping him off the market.
Using a tag on Pierce would take it out of play for Jones and increase pressure on the Colts to get a deal done with the latter before free agency.
Colts GM Chris Ballard On Anthony Richardson, Michael Pittman Jr.
Injuries and disappointing play have defined Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson‘s career since he entered the NFL as the fourth overall pick in 2023. The former Florida Gator has played just 17 NFL games, including two brief appearances in 2025, and there is widespread skepticism that he will turn into a viable starter. However, Colts general manager Chris Ballard is not writing off the 23-year-old yet.
“I see a future (for Richardson in the NFL). Yeah, kinda like with any player, you don’t know what’s going to happen. Things change,” Ballard said Tuesday (via Nathan Brown of the Indianapolis Star). “But we like Anthony.”
Andrew Luck‘s shocking preseason retirement in 2019 left the Colts without a long-term plan under center. The Luck-less Colts deployed Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz as their starter for a year apiece from 2019-22. Tired of cycling through short-term stopgaps, Ballard bet big on the athletically gifted Richardson going from raw prospect to franchise quarterback.
The Richardson gamble has not worked out at all. Various injuries and demotions limited him to 15 starts in his first two seasons. During an 11-start 2024, the 6-foot-4, 244-pounder completed an astoundingly low 47.7% of 264 pass attempts. The Colts left the door open for Richardson to remain their QB1 last year, but he would have had to beat out free agent acquisition Daniel Jones. Not only did Jones win the summer competition, but the former Giants first-rounder went on to enjoy the best season of his career.
Jones’ resurgent season concluded with a ruptured Achilles in Week 14, which could have opened the door for a healthy Richardson down the stretch. Unfortunately for Richardson, he was on the shelf then after suffering an orbital fracture in a freak accident with an exercise band in October. Richardson finished 2025 on IR while continuing to deal with vision problems. He is now “cleared to play football,” Ballard announced.
With both Jones and Richardson unavailable last December, the Colts stunned in calling the 44-year-old Rivers out of retirement. Rivers, then a Pro Football Hall of Fame finalist, agreed to reset his Canton clock five years and come back in an effort to save the free-falling Colts. All three of Rivers’ starts were must-see TV, but the Colts didn’t win any of them. After going 8-5 in Jones’ starts, the Colts went 0-4 with Rivers and Riley Leonard to complete a second-half collapse.
The Colts will not run it back again with Rivers, who went back into retirement at the end of the season. Meanwhile, Jones is coming off a serious injury and without a contract for next 2026. However, the pending free agent is expected to re-sign with the Colts and continue as their starter. That would leave Richardson as a backup again, which may be the most likely outcome. Richardson would not bring back much in a trade, and releasing him wouldn’t save the Colts any money.
If Richardson is still on the Colts’ roster on May 1, it would be fair to expect them to decline his projected $23.50MM fifth-year option by then. That would set Richardson up for a trip to free agency in March 2027. He may have to wait until then to potentially salvage his career with another team.
Like Richardson, Colts receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is facing an uncertain future this offseason. The six-year veteran logged 80 catches, 784 yards and seven touchdowns in 2025. Those aren’t bad numbers, but they may not be worth a bloated $29MM cap hit next season. While releasing Pittman before March 15 would save the Colts $24MM, parting with him is not a foregone conclusion.
“I think the world of Pitt and who he is as a player,” Ballard said (via Brown). “Any suggestion that he’s not going to be here (next season) is a pure hypothetical, in my mind.”
Despite Ballard’s affinity for Pittman, he will remain a player to monitor over the next couple of weeks. Getting Pittman’s money off the books may aid the Colts in their quest to keep Jones and pending free agent wideout Alec Pierce.
Colts Working On Re-Signing Daniel Jones, Alec Pierce; Franchise Tag In Play
FEBRUARY 24: Colts general manager Chris Ballard said at the Combine (via Chappell) that the team was planning to retain both Jones and Pierce. He added that “both sides are driven to get it done,” and characterized the ongoing negotiations as “very positive.”
Ballard also acknowledged the possibility of using the franchise tag on one of the two players, saying “it’s not what we want to do, but it’s a tool we have.”
FEBRUARY 23: The Colts were one of the biggest stories in the NFL in 2025, for reasons good and bad.
The good was a surprising 8-2 start anchored by an even more surprising player: quarterback Daniel Jones. The bad was an 0-7 finish to the year, which included Jones’ fractured fibula and torn Achilles in Week 13 and Philip Rivers‘ dramatic return to the NFL as his replacement.
The Colts had vastly different strengths of schedule during the two halves of their season, with a relatively easy slate to start and a murderer’s row of opponents down the stretch. That, combined with Jones’ injury, makes it hard to know if the current iteration of the team can compete in 2026.
The Colts seem to think so. They are pursuing extensions with Jones and wide receiver Alec Pierce, per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. Both are slated to hit free agency in March after breakout years in Indianapolis.
Jones, 28, did not just put up the best numbers of his career in 2025. He finished the year ranked among the NFL’s top 10 quarterbacks in yards per attempt, yards per game, completion percentage, passer rating, and total QBR. He also led three game-winning drives and three fourth-quarter comebacks in just 13 starts.
The seven-year veteran’s play started to slip before his injuries, which are not expected to sideline him into the 2026 season. But his injury history is a concern, and he did not get the chance to prove himself against many top defenses.
That makes Jones’ valuation a little tricky, but somewhere in the region of $35MM would make sense. Fellow 2018 first-round reclamation projects Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield signed for similar amounts after re-establishing themselves as starting-caliber QBs. Jones and the Colts have mutual interest in reaching a deal, according to Pelissero.
Pierce, 25, posted career-highs of 47 receptions and 1,003 receiving yards. He also led the NFL in yards per reception for a second year in a row. With George Pickens likely to be tagged by the Cowboys, Pierce could be the top wideout available in free agency. The Colts will try to lock him up before he hits the open market, but that may require an offer well over $20MM per year.
Discussions with both players “have been good” thus far, per FOX 59’s Mike Chappell, with negotiations expected to continue at the Combine in Indianapolis this week.
A franchise or transition tag is an option for Jones or Pierce (though not both), per Pelissero, though the latter makes far more sense for their valuations. A transition tag for Jones would cost $40.8MM, while Pierce’s would cost $25MM. However, those numbers would be on the high-end for a potential long-term deal and the tagged player would be able to negotiate with other teams.
The Colts are currently projected to have $35.7MM in cap space in 2026, per OverTheCap, with ways to create upwards of $50MM more. The team could afford to extend both players, or extend one and tag the other while still having room to address other needs in free agency.
Colts CB Charvarius Ward Expected To Play In 2026
Cornberback Charvarius Ward entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent from Middle Tennesee State in 2018, but it only took him until the next season to become a full-time starter. The former Chief and 49er was successful enough over his first seven seasons to earn a three-year, $54MM deal with the Colts last March.
Ward’s first year in Indianapolis did not go well, but it had nothing to do with his performance. Three concussions besieged Ward, who missed 10 of the Colts’ 17 games. Nearing his 30th birthday in May, Ward went into the offseason considering retirement. Ward’s father even advised him to walk away from the game, but it appears he will continue his career in 2026 (via Joel A. Erickson of the Indianapolis Star).
“All indications are he’s wanting to move forward and play,” general manager Chris Ballard stated on Tuesday. Meanwhile, head coach Shane Steichen said he and Ward talked “a couple days ago,” adding that the defender is “feeling good.”
With Ward likely returning next season, the Colts will hope he and fellow starting corner Sauce Gardner team up far more often than they did in 2025. Gardner began the season as a Jet, but he ended it as a Colt after a massive trade deadline deal on Nov. 4. With his team then 7-2 and vying for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, Ballard dealt the Colts’ next two first-round picks away for the two-time first-team All-Pro.
On paper, with Gardner joining Ward and slot corner Kenny Moore, the Colts had a superb trio. Unfortunately for Ballard, they seldom played together down the stretch. While Ward was regularly out of the lineup because of his concussions, a calf strain sidelined Gardner for four games. Serious late-season injuries to Ward, Gardner, quarterback Daniel Jones and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner significantly contributed to a post-deadline collapse for Indianapolis. Having to go long stretches without those players against a brutal second-half schedule torpedoed the Colts’ season.
Once 8-2, the Colts lost seven in a row to finish 8-9 and miss the playoffs for the fourth year in a row. Healthier seasons from Ward, Gardner, Jones (a pending free agent who is in negotiations to re-sign) and Buckner would go a long way toward helping the Colts rebound in 2026.
Bears Approaching Indiana Relocation?
FEBRUARY 20: Even if the Bears move to Indiana, they will continue to practice at Halas Hall, their facility in Lake Forest, Illinois, according to Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times. Lake Forest is about 40 miles north of Soldier Field in Chicago and about 60 miles north of Hammond, Indiana. That distance is “largely irrelevant,” Finley adds, “given that the Bears, like every other NFL team, spends the night before each game — both home and away — at a hotel.”
The Bears invested over $100MM in Halas Hall in 2019 and both players and staff live in the area, so moving away would cause a number of unnecessary headaches for the team.
FEBRUARY 19: The Bears have looked into a potential relocation to northwest Indiana as they weigh their new stadium options. A move across the border appears to remain a distinct possibility. 
On Thursday, an amendment to Senate Bill 27 received unanimous approval in the state during a Ways and Means committee hearing in Indiana. As noted by All CHGO’s Adam Hoge, only a direct agreement between governor Mike Braun and the Bears themselves seems to be in the way of a final step regarding relocation. It was confirmed today the Bears are still willing to commit $2 billion to the construction of a new stadium in Indiana, as they have been for a potential move to Arlington Heights in Illinois.
“We’ve identified a promising site near Wolf Lake in Hammond and established a broad framework for negotiating a final deal,” a statement from Braun reads in part. “If approved, the proposed amendment to Senate Bill 27 puts forward the essential framework to complete this agreement, contingent upon site due diligence proceeding smoothly.”
An Illinois House Finance and Revenue committee hearing was scheduled to take place today, but it was canceled. Hoge reports the megaprojects bill which could have granted the Bears “tax certainty” regarding the Arlington Heights project was on the agenda but was not set to be voted on. The Bears still own a plot in Arlington Heights at this time.
“The passage of SB 27 would mark the most meaningful step forward in our stadium planning efforts to date,” a Bears statement reads in part. “We are committed to finishing the remaining site-specific necessary due diligence to support our vision to build a world-class stadium near the Wolf Lake area in Hammond, Indiana… We value our partnership and look forward to continuing to build our working relationship together.”
Hammond falls within a 75-mile radius of downtown Chicago. As such, the Bears already own marketing rights there in line with NFL rules for all of its teams. As noted by the Indy Star’s Joel A. Erickson, the Colts’ stance on this matter has not changed since a Bears relocation to Indiana became possible. The Colts simply “wish the Bears all the best on their stadium initiative.”
Connor Orr of Sports Illustrated reports a move across the Illinois-Indiana border “feels like an inevitability” at this point. Nothing has been finalized, but this is certainly a situation to watch closely. Interestingly, a move to Hammond would see the Bears play in the same location where George Halas spent time as a player in 1919 (h/t Mark Potash of the Chicago Sun-Times). The manner in which Illinois responds to today’s developments will likely play a key role in determining the Bears’ post-Soldier Field future.
Colts Expected To Re-Sign Daniel Jones
After a turbulent six-year run with the Giants, Colts quarterback Daniel Jones‘ resurgence was one of the NFL’s pleasant surprises during last season’s first three months. Jones guided the Colts to an 8-4 record through his first 12 starts, but a torn Achilles in a Week 14 loss to the Jaguars ruined his season and helped sink his team.
Season-ending injuries to Jones and backup Anthony Richardson left the Colts desperate enough to bring 44-year-old Pro Football Hall of Fame finalist Philip Rivers out of retirement. While that made for a fun story, the Colts did not win another game.
Indianapolis was in the catbird seat for a playoff spot for a large portion of 2025, but the team is now reeling from a second straight 8-9 finish. The Colts’ playoff drought climbed to five years during their second-half collapse. To make matters worse, the Colts do not have a first-round pick until 2028 (then 7-2, they traded their next two No. 1s to the Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner) or an established starting quarterback under contract.
Jones is scheduled to reach the free agent market next month, but there is mutual interest in a second Colts deal. The two sides are expected to commence negotiations soon (if they haven’t already). Among teams chasing quarterbacks, there is “growing consensus” Jones will stay in Indianapolis, Jason La Canfora of SportsBoom reports.
“Jones is going back to the Colts. It makes too much sense not to happen,” one general manager told La Canfora.
The fact that Jones is just two-plus months removed from an Achilles tear increases the likelihood of remaining with the Colts, per La Canfora. The belief is that it would make plenty of sense for Jones to re-up with the Colts and recuperate in a familiar setting. Otherwise, in going elsewhere, he’d add the burdensome task of learning a new offense to an arduous recovery process.
Regardless of whether Jones sticks with the Colts, a substantial raise over last year’s $14MM deal is in order despite an inconsistent career and his recent injury. Considering the Colts and other teams are starved for a starting signal-caller, the 28-year-old is a candidate for the franchise tag (worth a projected $47.32MM) or another large contract.
With his stock then on the rise in New York, Jones secured a four-year, $160MM extension in March 2023. It was a disastrous decision by the Giants, who went on to cut Jones in November 2024. He finished the season as a Vikings backup before signing with the Colts in free agency. Jones was a buy-low pickup then, but a year later, he likely has more earning potential than any other pending free agent QB.
While the Colts expect Jones to bounce back from his injury by training camp, there is skepticism GM Chris Ballard will tag him by the March 3 deadline.
“Ballard was going to put the (franchise) tag on him if he didn’t get hurt,” another GM informed La Canfora. “Everybody knew that. Now he can keep him without tagging him.”
If that’s the case, Jones’ next Colts pact would “likely” be incentive-laden, according to La Canfora. Should the Colts work something out with Jones before March 3, it may enable them to tag one of his key weapons, wide receiver Alec Pierce, at a lesser cost (a projected $28.82MM).
Jones formed a nice rapport with Pierce, a soon-to-be free agent who has led the league in yards per catch two years in a row. Despite just 47 receptions, the field-stretching Pierce posted his first 1,000-yard season in 2025. If the Colts don’t franchise Pierce in the next two weeks, it would set up the 2022 second-rounder to reel in a much more valuable deal than the four-year rookie contract he just finished.
2026 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates
We are now in Year 34 of the franchise tag, a retention tool that came about during the same offseason in which full-fledged free agency spawned. The NFL salary cap is rising at a rate allowing teams to hammer out more extensions than in previous periods. That has helped dilute free agency talent pools. This led to a 2025 landscape in which only two players — Tee Higgins and Trey Smith — received the franchise tag. The cap, which stood at $279.2MM in 2025, is expected to rise beyond $301MM this year.
This year’s free agent class looks to feature only one tag lock, but a handful of players make sense as candidates to be kept off the market. An antiquated NFL system regarding positional classifications also affects this year’s free agency crop, as a couple of high-end UFAs-to-be (Tyler Linderbaum, Devin Lloyd) would likely be kept off the market if the league modernized how it sorted positions with regards to tag prices.
Teams who use the franchise or transition tag have until July 15 to complete an extension; otherwise, negotiations cannot restart until after the 2026 season. The transition tag does not bring any compensation back for an unmatched offer sheet, but the two-first-rounder component associated with a franchise tag has not been especially relevant in ages. Although offer sheets have come out in previous eras (Sean Gilbert and Dan Wilkinson signed unmatched offers in the 1990s), clubs avoid these in fear of an unmatched proposal requiring two first-round picks to be sent to the tagging team.
The tag window opens at 3pm CT today. With clubs having until 3pm CT on March 3 to apply tags, here is who may be cuffed:
Likely tag recipients
George Pickens, WR (Cowboys)
Projected tag cost: $28.82MM
The Cowboys have regularly turned to the tag over the past decade. They cuffed DeMarcus Lawrence in 2018 and ’19 before locking down Dak Prescott in 2020 and ’21. The latter Prescott tag was procedural, as the quarterback used the threat of a lofty second tag number hitting Dallas’ cap sheet as leverage toward a player-friendly extension — one that laid the groundwork for his 2024 player-friendly extension. The Cowboys then kept Dalton Schultz (2022) and Tony Pollard (’23) off the market. After two years without unholstering their tag, the Cowboys appear all set to prevent Pickens from reaching free agency.
Acquiring Pickens in a May 2025 trade with the Steelers — which featured a 2026 third-round pick as the top asset going back to Pittsburgh –Dallas reaped immediate benefits from that swap. Pickens, 24, smashed his career-high receiving mark with 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns. That booked the former second-round pick his first Pro Bowl honor; more impressively, Pickens was named a second-team All-Pro. The mercurial ex-Steeler WR1 was more than 300 receiving yards clear of CeeDee Lamb for the Cowboys’ receiving lead; even though Lamb missed three games, Pickens’ per-game average (84.1) better Lamb’s (76.9).
A tag surfaced on the radar here in mid-November, and momentum has steadily built for Pickens to follow in Dez Bryant‘s footsteps as a Cowboy wideout being kept off the market. It will take a near-Saints-level odyssey for the Cowboys to create sufficient cap space for a Pickens tag and reasonable spending room; they are projected to be more than $30MM (per OverTheCap) north of the 2026 salary ceiling, but enough smoke has emerged here — after Pickens fit the tag profile upon arrival — to make it safe to expect this outcome.
The Steelers shipped out Pickens in part because of reliability concerns, but the 6-foot-3 playmaker outperformed — with a considerable QB upgrade in Prescott — his previous work. With Lamb tied to a $34MM-per-year deal and Prescott on an NFL-record $60MM-AAV extension, the Cowboys are far from certain to extend Pickens. A tag-and-trade play has surfaced as a possibility, but with negotiations not having begun as of early February, expect the Cowboys to use the tag to at least buy themselves more time on their ultra-talented WR2.
On tag radar:
Breece Hall, RB (Jets)
Projected tag cost: $14.54MM
The Chiefs offered a fourth-round pick for Hall at the deadline, but the Jets held onto their starting running back after having asked for at least a third-rounder. Hall denied a report he was seeking a New York exit — after the blockbuster deals involving Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams — but he could have a chance to explore his value on the open market soon. The Jets, however, have spoken highly of the 1,000-yard rusher. The tag has surfaced as a possibility.
Hall, 24, is more than two years younger than Etienne. He will thus command more in free agency. The former second-round pick is also more than three years removed from the ACL tear that sidetracked his rookie season. The Jets waited on a Hall extension, keeping him on his rookie contract while giving Gardner and Garrett Wilson big-ticket deals, but Aaron Glenn has spoken highly of the Iowa State alum.
Gang Green wants to retain Hall. The easiest way for that to happen would be to extend his negotiating window via the tag. A $12MM-per-year offer could await the fifth-year player, making a tag logical. If the Jets were to place the transition tag on Hall, it would cost them a projected $11.73MM. They would receive no compensation in the event of an unmatched offer sheet, thus allowing another team to dictate the contract structure a la the Packers’ Kyle Fuller offer sheet in 2018.
The Jets saw Hall sidekick Braelon Allen miss much of the season, but the former Joe Douglas-era fourth-round pick remains signed through 2027. Allen gives the Jets some protection against a Hall exit, with a mid-round 2027 compensatory pick possible as well. But Hall is a dynamic RB that will be an attractive FA commodity if unattached come March 9. The Jets have a big decision to make over the next two weeks.
Trey Hendrickson, DE (Bengals)
Projected tag cost: $34.8MM
The defensive end tag is projected to come in at $27.32MM, but because Hendrickson was attached to a $29MM salary (following a late-summer raise), he is the rare tag candidate to whom the 120% rule would apply. As PFR’s glossary indicates, “the amount of the one-year offer is determined by a formula that includes the salary cap figures and the non-exclusive franchise salaries at the player’s position for the previous five years. Alternately, the amount of the one-year offer can be 120% of the player’s previous salary, if that amount is greater.” In Hendrickson’s case, it would be.
