Free Agent Stock Watch: Wan’Dale Robinson
The Giants have spent much of the 2025 season without Malik Nabers. That has dealt a blow to the team’s offense but it has also helped allow for fellow receiver Wan’Dale Robinson to enjoy a career year. 
Robinson received a whopping 140 targets in 2024, a season in which he was used heavily as a slot receiver. The former second-rounder only averaged 7.5 yards per catch as a result, but he has handled a more varied workload this season. Seeing more time on the perimeter, Robinson has remained a focal point on offense in 2025 but he has seen a notable uptick in efficiency along the way.
Thanks to a strong performance on Sunday, Robinson has surpassed the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career. The Kentucky product’s target total is identical to his 2024 figure and the same is essentially true of his 92 catches, but his yards per reception mark has increased to 11.0, comfortably a new personal best. As a pending free agent, the timing of this step up in production could lead to a lucrative payday.
When speaking to Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post, one NFL scout pegged Robinson’s market at $15MM-$16MM per season. A team executive agreed with that assessment, pointing to Christian Kirk‘s contract as the ceiling in this case. In 2022, eyebrows were raised when Kirk signed a four-year, $72MM pact during his first trip to free agency. Surges in the salary cap and the receiver market since then have changed the financial landscape at the position, though.
Robinson’s case is somewhat unique based on his size (5-8, 185 pounds). As Dunleavy notes, there are 27 receivers currently attached to an AAV of $16MM or more. That group only includes three under six feet in height, though (Kirk along with the Dolphins’ Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle). That factor could limit Robinson’s market to an extent, although a considerable raise can nevertheless be expected on his second NFL contract.
Robinson is set to turn 25 next week, so his next pact will cover the prime of his career. Whether it will come from the Giants or an outside suitor will be interesting to see. New York already has Darius Slayton on the books through 2027, and his pact includes considerable guarantees for next year. A monster Nabers extension can be signed as early as the 2026 offseason and it will of course need to be budgeted for. New York is currently projected to have roughly $17.5MM in cap space this spring, although that figure will change once cost-cutting season begins.
The group of pending free agent receivers is headlined by George Pickens, who looms as a Cowboys franchise tag candidate. Alec Pierce (Colts), Romeo Doubs (Packers), Rashid Shaheed (Seahawks) and Jalen Nailor (Vikings) are also in line to receive their second contract in the near future. Older wideouts could parlay their longer track record of production into a notable deal as well, but Robinson’s consistency over the past two years and his expanded role in 2025 should make him one of the top options at the position.
Last month, Robinson stated his desire to remain with the Giants. If that feeling is mutual and a deal is worked out, he will be in line to operate as a key figure in New York’s young offensive core for years to come. Otherwise, his market will be one worth monitoring closely.
Poll: Will Raiders Fire Pete Carroll?
Pete Carroll became the oldest head coach in NFL history when the Raiders hired him last January. With a resume that includes a Super Bowl championship and a national title, expectations were that the Raiders would give the 74-year-old a long leash. However, now a week away from finishing a disastrous season under Carroll, the Raiders may go in another direction in 2026.
In a game featuring 2-13 teams and top contenders for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft, the Raiders took a 34-10 beating at the hands of the Giants on Sunday. The outcome may be good for the Raiders’ future – they’re now in pole position to draft first – but it continued a brutal run for the Carroll-led club. Las Vegas has now dropped 10 in a row. The Raiders haven’t been competitive during several games in that stretch. They’ve lost three by 24-plus points and two via shutout.
With the Raiders showing little life on the field, Carroll has reportedly been on the hot seat for weeks. Moves to shake up his first (and perhaps only) Raiders coaching staff haven’t gotten the team out of the basement. Carroll parted with special teams coach Tom McMahon and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly at different points in November, but the losing hasn’t stopped.
Even though Kelly was the league’s highest-paid OC, and although part-owner Tom Brady was instrumental in hiring him, the Raiders cut the cord on the experienced play caller. The philosophies of Carroll and Kelly clashed during their 11-game run together.
The Raiders’ offense averaged a horrid 15 points per game with Kelly at the controls, but replacing him with Greg Olson hasn’t worked. The number has fallen to 14.2 since Kelly’s ouster. Not surprisingly, the Raiders are last in the league in scoring.
Hoping to improve Carroll’s chances of immediate success, the Raiders reunited him with quarterback Geno Smith. They traded a 2025 third-rounder to Seattle for Smith and immediately handed him a two-year, $75MM extension. While Smith performed well as Carroll’s starter in Seattle from 2022-23, that hasn’t been the case in a new city. Smith has been among the league’s least effective QBs this year, which is among the reasons Carroll may be at risk of a one-and-done tenure in Las Vegas.
While this has easily been the worst season of Carroll’s 19 as an NFL head coach, he still believes Raiders ownership (Mark Davis and Brady) is in his corner. Brady’s presence helped steer Carroll to Las Vegas, but the results have been so poor that the two sides may be on their way to a divorce a year later. It wouldn’t be the first short-lived Vegas marriage.
Do you expect the Raiders to dismiss Carroll? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and have your say in the comments section.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Breece Hall
With 111 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries, the Jets’ Breece Hall was among the NFL’s most productive running backs in Week 17. He was a rare bright spot for the Jets in a 42-10 blowout loss to the Patriots. As a pending free agent, it’s possible a Week 18 matchup in Buffalo will be the last time Hall dons a Jets uniform.
Hall joined the Jets as a second-round pick from Iowa State in 2022. The 5-foot-11, 217-pounder totaled single-digit carries in each of his first three games as a rookie, but the Jets leaned on him more after that.
Hall posted his first career 100-yard rushing game in Week 6. He followed that up with a 62-yard touchdown during a four-carry, 72-yard showing the next week, but he suffered a season-ending ACL tear that day in a win over the Broncos. Hall’s rookie campaign ended with 463 yards on 80 carries – good for a robust 5.8 YPC – and five TDs (four rushing, one receiving) in seven games.
While Hall hasn’t approached the YPC mark he logged in his first season, there haven’t been any durability concerns since then. Hall missed a game in 2024, but he played in all 17 the previous year and is on track for perfect attendance again.
Although his injury sapped him of some explosiveness, Hall still averaged 216 carries, 935 yards and five scores as a rusher from 2023-24. He complemented his output on the ground with prolific pass-catching numbers during that two-year stretch, as he averaged 67 receptions, 537 yards and roughly four TDs per season.
With 36 catches, 350 yards and TD, Hall’s impact as a receiver has dropped this year as part of the league’s worst-ranked passing offense. However, as a runner, he has already set career highs in carries (243) and yards (1,065) heading into the season finale. The 24-year-old is also one rushing TD away from tying a personal-best five.
Regardless of how he performs Sunday, Hall will finish the season as the Jets’ first 1,000-yard rusher since Chris Ivory hit the mark in 2015. It’s especially impressive considering the lack of help around him. The Jets have tried three different quarterbacks – Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor and Brady Cook – but haven’t found anything resembling an answer at the position. They’ll also go a 10th game without No. 1 wide receiver Garrett Wilson on Sunday. Wilson’s knee issues have left Hall as the Jets’ only significant weapon for most of 2025.
Other teams have taken notice of Hall’s success this season, which bodes well as he gears up for a potential trip to the open market. He was popular in trade rumors leading up to the Nov. 4 deadline. The Chiefs, among the teams with interest, reportedly offered a fourth-round pick for Hall. That wasn’t good enough for the Jets, who decided to ride out 2025 with their No. 1 back.
First-year head coach Aaron Glenn wasn’t with New York when the team drafted Hall, but he has made his affinity for the running back known. Glenn and rookie general manager Darren Mougey, both expected to return in 2026, will likely make some attempt to retain Hall. If the two sides can’t come together on a multiyear agreement by early March, the Jets will have the option of keeping Hall from reaching the market unfettered with the franchise tag. They’d have three choices in that case: 1. Keep him for another year at around $14MM; 2. Trade him; 3. Hammer out an extension by the July 15 deadline.
In the event he becomes a free agent and shops himself around the league, Hall’s next deal could check in around $12MM per year, Rich Cimini of ESPN writes. That would match the average annual value the Packers’ Josh Jacobs landed on the four-year, $48MM contract he inked as a free agent in 2024. Jacobs now ranks sixth among RBs in AAV, and he continues to lead the position in total contract value, but the pact only came with $12.5MM in guarantees.
While Jacobs had a better track record then than Hall does now, the salary cap continues to rise. That should boost Hall’s chances of approaching Jacobs’ payday or at least matching or exceeding $10MM per annum. Nine backs are currently raking in eight figures per year. Hall and other soon-to-be free agents in the Jaguars’ Travis Etienne and the Seahawks’ Kenneth Walker may have an opportunity to join the club in the offseason. All have enjoyed strong careers, but it works in Hall’s favor that he’s the youngest of the three.
Updated 2026 NFL Draft Order
Aside from tonight’s Rams-Falcons game, Week 17 is in the books. Most of the playoff field has been set in both conferences, but there is still plenty to be determined regarding the first-round draft order.
By virtue of their loss on Sunday, the Raiders are now in pole position to secure the No. 1 pick. Vegas sits at 2-14 on the year, with four teams sporting a record of 3-13. Only one of those, however – the Giants – is still in contention to land the top selection. Vegas will play against Kansas City in Week 18, while New York’s season will end against Dallas.
Fernando Mendoza looms as the projected top quarterback option in the 2026 class, with the futures of Dante Moore and Ty Simpson still uncertain. Demand usually outweighs supply at the top of the draft when it comes to signal-callers, and scarcity at the position could very well come into play in April. Mendoza may find himself on the radar of teams not immediately in need of a quarterback depending on how things play out.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order is determined by the inverted 2025 standings plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule. Playoff squads are slotted by their postseason outcome and the reverse order of their regular season record.
Here is an updated look at the first-round order:
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-14)
- New York Giants (3-13)
- New York Jets (3-13)
- Tennessee Titans (3-13)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-13)
- Cleveland Browns (4-12)
- Washington Commanders (4-12)
- New Orleans Saints (6-10)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)
- Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)
- Los Angeles Rams (via Falcons)
- Miami Dolphins (7-9)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
- Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1)
- Detroit Lions (8-8)
- Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
- Minnesota Vikings (8-8)
- New York Jets (via Colts)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
- Dallas Cowboys (via Packers)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-5)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-4)
- Cleveland Browns (via Jaguars)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
- New England Patriots (13-3)
- Denver Broncos (13-3)
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
Updated 2026 NFL Draft Order
Several dominoes have fallen so far in Week 16 with respect to the NFL’s playoff picture. The Cowboys have been eliminated while the Patriots, Seahawks, Bears, Eagles and 49ers have locked in a postseason berth.
The final two weeks of the campaign will determine the remaining playoff spots, but they will also sort out the top of the draft order. Six teams remain within striking distance of the No. 1 pick, although the Titans’ win on Sunday greatly weakened their chances of landing the top selection for the second year in a row. One contest in particular will be worth monitoring next week with respect to draft positioning.
The Giants and Raiders each sport a record of 2-13. They will play each other in Week 17, meaning the loser of that contest will have the inside track for the No. 1 pick. New York already has a head coaching vacancy while Pete Carroll is in danger of going one-and-done in Vegas. Plenty of incentive for winning will exist for Carroll in particular, but the outcome of that game will have major implications on the draft order.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order is determined by the inverted 2025 standings plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule. Playoff squads are slotted by their postseason outcome and the reverse order of their regular season record.
Here is an updated look at the first-round order:
- New York Giants (2-13)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-13)
- Cleveland Browns (3-12)
- New York Jets (3-12)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-12)
- Tennessee Titans (3-12)
- Washington Commanders (4-11)
- New Orleans Saints (5-10)
- Cincinnati Bengals (5-10)
- Miami Dolphins (6-9)
- Los Angeles Rams (via Falcons)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-9)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1)
- Baltimore Ravens (7-8)
- Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8)
- Detroit Lions (8-7)
- New York Jets (via Colts)
- Carolina Panthers (8-7)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6)
- Dallas Cowboys (via Packers)
- Philadelphia Eagles (10-5)
- Houston Texans (10-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-4)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-4)
- San Francisco 49ers (11-4)
- Cleveland Browns (via Jaguars)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-4)
- Chicago Bears (11-4)
- New England Patriots (12-3)
- Denver Broncos (12-3)
- Seattle Seahawks (12-3)
Poll: How Will Falcons Proceed With HC Raheem Morris, GM Terry Fontenot?
Entering the 2025 season, expectations were elevated for the Falcons. The first full year with Michael Penix Jr. atop the quarterback depth chart coupled with a renovated defense brought with it the possibility for a return to the playoffs. 
Atlanta’s most recent winning season came in 2017. Since then, the team has been mired in mediocrity (at best) while struggling through the post-Matt Ryan era. That stretch will continue through the end of 2025, a season in which improvements in some areas on defense have taken place. Nevertheless, the fate of head coach Raheem Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot remains unclear as the campaign winds down.
Owner Arthur Blank is in the process of evaluating the Falcons’ football operations. He will continue to do so through the remainder of the season before deciding on any changes along the sidelines and/or in the front office. The veteran owner offered an endorsement of both Morris and Fontenot in August, but things have not gone according to plan since then.
Injuries to Penix – a well-documented concern in his case upon entering the NFL – and others on offense have hindered the Falcons on that side of the ball. The team’s defense has, on the other hand, enjoyed a resurgence in the pass rush department after years of struggling on that front. That is of course thanks in large part to the pair of first-round rookies the Falcons have along the edge.
After drafting Jalon Walker last April, Fontenot traded back into the Day 1 order to select James Pearce. As a result of the move, Atlanta’s 2026 first-rounder (which could very well end up being a top-10 pick) will belong to the Rams. That is an illustration of how far the Falcons have fallen short of expectations this year.
Fontenot drew criticism for the team’s succession plan – or lack thereof – once Ryan’s Atlanta tenure ended. Efforts were made to add short- and long-term stability under center last spring when the Penix selection was preceded by the Kirk Cousins signing. Eyebrows were raised at how Atlanta handled the situation, and since being benched late last season Cousins has been the subject of speculation regarding his future.
The four-time Pro Bowler’s contract makes a trade unlikely, although Penix’s injury highlights the need for veteran depth of some kind. Still, Fontenot’s track record (five years and counting with a mark no better than 8-9) could lead to a reset and a new voice being trusted to sort out Atlanta’s direction at the QB spot moving forward. Likewise, Morris is not viewed as being on solid footing.
Atlanta reunited with the 49-year-old during the 2024 hiring cycle, doing so after taking a long look at Bill Belichick. The Falcons managed to win on Sunday, but that only moved their 2025 record to 5-9. Morris thus has an overall mark of 35-56 as a head coach taking into account his time in Tampa Bay along with his interim HC stint with Atlanta in 2020. The decision this past offseason to replace defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake with Jeff Ulbrich has not yielded the desired improvement in many categories on that side of the ball. Given Morris’ defensive background, that could prove to be a factor working against him.
A report from earlier this month indicated a head coaching change this offseason is essentially considered inevitable. No public developments since then have suggested Morris is any likelier to be retained or fired, and the final two games of the season could sway Blank’s thinking. There are currently two HC openings around the NFL, but more vacancies will no doubt emerge after the regular season ends.
Whether or not the list of openings on the sidelines and/or in the front office winds up including Atlanta will be one of the team’s central storylines through the coming weeks. Fontenot had a lengthy spell with the Saints before taking his first GM gig in Atlanta. Morris, meanwhile, has drawn praise for his work as a defensive coordinator and another DC gig could await him in the event he were to be dismissed by the Falcons for a second time.
How do you see the team proceeding on this front? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and have your say in the comments section.
2025 NFL Dead Money, By Team
As we head toward the playoffs, three NFL teams are carrying more than $100MM in dead money. That represents more than a third of the salary cap. The 49ers are also on track to make the playoffs with more than $100MM allocated to players no longer on their 53-man roster. Here is where the 32 teams stand for dead money (via OverTheCap) with three weeks left in the regular season:
- New Orleans Saints: $107.83MM
- San Francisco 49ers: $103.77MM
- New York Jets: $102.1MM
- Las Vegas Raiders: $87.79MM
- Philadelphia Eagles: $87.27MM
- Seattle Seahawks: $86.1MM
- Jacksonville Jaguars: $85.49MM
- Cleveland Browns: $83.22MM
- Miami Dolphins: $72.45MM
- Houston Texans: $66.44MM
- Tennessee Titans: $59.42MM
- Green Bay Packers: $57.98MM
- Los Angeles Rams: $56.23MM
- New England Patriots: $50.56MM
- Denver Broncos: $42.78MM
- Dallas Cowboys: $41.34MM
- Detroit Lions: $40.71MM
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $40.39MM
- Los Angeles Chargers: $38.78MM
- Baltimore Ravens: $38.38MM
- Buffalo Bills: $37.58MM
- Carolina Panthers: $36.55MM
- New York Giants: $33.74MM
- Pittsburgh Steelers: $33.7MM
- Minnesota Vikings: $30.6MM
- Washington Commanders: $27.29MM
- Atlanta Falcons: $27MM
- Cincinnati Bengals: $20.99MM
- Kansas City Chiefs: $20.33MM
- Indianapolis Colts: $17.37MM
- Arizona Cardinals: $16.51MM
- Chicago Bears: $8.6MM
The $100MM trio dwarfs last year’s leaders — the Broncos — in this unwanted area. The Saints began taking some overdue medicine for their cap-gymnastics past by trading Marshon Lattimore last year. That move coming after June 1 pushed $31.67MM onto New Orleans’ 2025 cap sheet. Derek Carr also counts $19.2MM on this year’s Saints cap, while Ryan Ramczyk‘s retirement covers more than $11MM.
The Carr punishment covers $55.88MM in total, meaning nearly $37MM from the QB’s retirement will land on New Orleans’ 2026 payroll. Mickey Loomis‘ spree of restructures on that contract created that inflated figure.
Deebo Samuel brought a receiver-record dead money total to the 49ers, who absorbed $34.12MM by trading the seventh-year veteran in March. The second leg of the post-June 1 Arik Armstead transaction from 2024 created a $15MM dead cap hit this year, with void years on Charvarius Ward‘s deal covering more than $12MM.
Gang Green took on barely $20MM combined from the Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams trades and will do the same next year, reflecting the low signing bonus figure on the Gardner extension. The Jets, though, have taken $56MM in total from the Aaron Rodgers release ($21MM this year, $35MM next). That is the second-highest total dead cap hit in NFL history.
The team that authorized the highest dead money sum in league annals — Denver, via the 2024 Russell Wilson release — is still carrying $32MM on that contract. It comes off the books next year, and the Broncos do not have any other player counting more than $3MM in dead cap on their 2025 payroll.
The Eagles and Seahawks are also moving toward the playoffs with higher dead money counts compared to the 2024 Broncos, though it should be noted the cap’s $24MM increase from last year plays into this. Philadelphia is still carrying a combined $26MM from the 2024 Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox retirements. Josh Sweat void years also comprise $16.44MM of this year’s cap. The Seahawks’ D.K. Metcalf trade brought $21MM in dead cap, while Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett and Dre’Mont Jones combine to cover more than $41MM in dead money.
Amari Cooper and Za’Darius Smith‘s 2024 Cleveland exits via trade tagged the Browns with more than $36MM in dead money together, while the Dolphins are dealing with more than $30MM combined from the post-June 1 designations on Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey. The latter counts $15.7MM in dead money this year and $20.9MM in 2026. That eclipses Lattimore’s defender-record total for dead cap.
Franchise Tag Candidate: Kyle Pitts
The Falcons have only used the franchise tag three times since the NFL introduced it in 1993. With tight end Kyle Pitts a pending free agent, he could become the fourth Falcon to receive the tag during the upcoming offseason. Pitts’ late-season surge has turned it into a possibility, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com says.
Pitts entered the league with great fanfare as the fourth overall pick of the 2021 draft. The former Florida Gator became the highest-drafted tight end in league history, an honor he continues to hold. Although Pitts only caught one touchdown as a rookie, he hauled in 68 receptions for 1,026 yards. That was enough for the 6-foot-6, 250-pounder to earn a Pro Bowl nod, but he was unable to build on that during his next three seasons.
Hamstring and knee injuries limited Pitts to 10 games and 28 catches in his second year. Pitts bounced back to notch consecutive 17-game seasons from 2023-24, though his numbers were more decent than great. He averaged 50 catches, 635 yards, and approximately four touchdowns per year during that span.
The Falcons picked up Pitts’ fifth-year option after 2023, but they weren’t willing to commit to an extension entering this season. That left Pitts to play out 2025 for $10.88MM, a price tag he has justified.
With 73 catches through 14 games, Pitts has already posted a career high. He has also tied a personal best with four scores. Having amassed 797 yards with three games left, Pitts has a chance to reach 1,000 for the second time.
Thanks largely to a scintillating stretch over the past few weeks, Pitts ranks second among tight ends in yards and third in catches. The 25-year-old has piled up 24 catches and 338 yards in his past three games. He was at his best in a Week 15 upset over the Buccaneers, whom he torched for 11 receptions, 166 yards, and three touchdowns.
Pitts’ late-season dominance is what Terry Fontenot expected when he used his first draft pick as a general manager on the pass catcher. It hasn’t worked out as hoped for the Falcons, who haven’t made the playoffs since 2018. Fontenot, in charge for a half-decade, isn’t a sure bet to return in 2026 as a result.
Whether it’s Fontenot or a different GM running the show, that individual will have to decide whether to tag Pitts for approximately $15.88MM. David Mulugheta, Pitts’ agent, “hates the franchise tag,” according to Rapoport. He’d surely prefer a long-term pact. However, the Falcons may have higher priorities in running back Bijan Robinson and wide receiver Drake London. The team could lock up either or both of them on mega-deals during the upcoming offseason.
A sub-$16MM cost for one year of Pitts doesn’t look unreasonable, but the Falcons are projected to have just under $1MM in spending space in 2026, per Over the Cap. They could tag Pitts and then try to find a taker in a trade. Otherwise, they’ll need to clear more room to keep Pitts and meaningfully address other areas of their roster, potentially including quarterback.
While Pitts and backup QB Kirk Cousins have formed an excellent rapport lately, that wasn’t the case when the latter started over a larger sample in 2024. Cousins, who has taken over since Michael Penix Jr. suffered a partially torn ACL in Week 11, is a clear release candidate heading into the offseason.
Cutting Cousins would open up a sizable chuck of cap for Atlanta. It would also lead to more uncertainty under center for the Falcons, who may not have Penix at the beginning of next season. Cousins and Penix are part of an unspectacular group of starting QBs who have worked with Pitts during his time in Atlanta. Matt Ryan (at the twilight of his career), Marcus Mariota, and Desmond Ridder are the others. Not pairing up with a high-level passer has likely held Pitts back to some degree. Nevertheless, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Falcons place the franchise tag on him in a couple of months.
If the Falcons don’t tag or re-sign Pitts, he could wind up as the most appealing tight end on the open market. Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, David Njoku, and Zach Ertz are also scheduled to reach free agency. Pitts is by far the youngest member of the group. Kelce, who’s likely in Kansas City-or-retirement mode, Goedert, and Ertz are all on the wrong side of 30. Njoku will turn 30 in July, and Ertz will enter 2026 off a recent ACL tear. That’s assuming the 35-year-old continues his career next season.
Updated 2026 NFL Draft Order
Sunday’s action provided more clarity on a number of fronts relating to the playoff pushes in each conference. The list of teams still in contention for the top pick in the 2026 draft remains long, however.
Week 15 saw the Broncos and Rams clinch a postseason berth. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, Bengals and Vikings have each officially been eliminated from the playoffs. They will join the group of teams turning their attention to offseason planning. That of course includes extensive evaluation of the top prospects in this year’s class; several have already turned pro (with some exceptions).
Sunday’s results mean there are nine teams with two, three or four wins. Each of them remain candidates to secure the No. 1 selection, although victories by the Saints and Commanders yesterday will greatly hinder their chances of moving to the top of the order. Jockeying amongst teams like the Raiders, Jets and Cardinals (each on track to pursue a new quarterback this spring) will be a storyline worth following closely down the stretch.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order is determined by the inverted 2025 standings plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule. Playoff squads are slotted by their postseason outcome and the reverse order of their regular season record.
Here is an updated look at the first-round order:
- New York Giants (2-12)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
- Tennessee Titans (2-12)
- Cleveland Browns (3-11)
- New York Jets (3-11)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-11)
- New Orleans Saints (4-10)
- Washington Commanders (4-10)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-10)
- Los Angeles Rams (via Falcons)
- Miami Dolphins (6-8)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
- Minnesota Vikings (6-8)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)
- Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
- Carolina Panthers (7-7)
- Detroit Lions (8-6)
- New York Jets (via Colts)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
- Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)
- Houston Texans (9-5)
- Dallas Cowboys (via Packers)
- Buffalo Bills (10-4)
- Chicago Bears (10-4)
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
- San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
- Cleveland Browns (via Jaguars)
- New England Patriots (11-3)
- Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-3)
- Denver Broncos (12-2)
Poll: Who Will Win NFC West?
It only took 10 wins to earn the NFC West title a year ago. Two of the division’s four teams have already reached that total 14 weeks into 2025. The 10-3 Rams are in first place and on track to win the division for the second straight season, but the Seahawks share the same record. Meanwhile, the 49ers (9-4) are right on their tails. At 3-10, the Cardinals are the only non-contender in the division, leaving the other three clubs to battle for the title over the next four weeks.
The Rams rank second in the NFL in point differential, trailing only the Seahawks in that category. However, the Rams got the better of the Seahawks in their first matchup of the season in Week 11. Playing at home, the Rams took advantage of four Sam Darnold interceptions to eke out a 21-19 win. Those two will meet again in Seattle in Week 16. The Seahawks also lost their previous meeting with the 49ers, who took a 17-13 decision on the road in Week 1. Seattle will seek revenge in San Francisco in Week 18, potentially with the division at stake. Having already split their season series, the Rams and 49ers are done with each other unless a rubber match occurs during the playoffs.
Despite Darnold’s disastrous showing against the Rams last month, the 28-year-old has been terrific for the second season in a row. Between his one-off with the Vikings and his first 13 games as a Seahawk, Darnold has gone 24-6 as a starter since 2024. He’s in the MVP running this year, but Stafford is the favorite in his age-37 season.
Both Stafford and Darnold have benefited from immensely talented receivers. The Rams have a stellar one-two punch in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Nacua leads the NFL in catches (93), and Adams is atop the league in receiving touchdowns (14). Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ Jaxon Smith-Njigba is easily pacing the league in yards (1,428). He has a shot to break Calvin Johnson‘s single-season record of 1,964.
While their offenses have gotten most of the headlines, the Rams and Seahawks have also prevented scoring at an elite clip. The Seahawks have given up 17.4 points per game to the Rams’ 17.5. Only the Texans (16.0) have done a better job keeping points off the board than those two clubs. Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula and Seahawks DC Aden Durde could soon draw head coaching interest as a result of their work this year.
The Rams’ Sean McVay and the Seahawks’ Mike Macdonald will likely earn Coach of the Year consideration. The same should be true for the 49ers’ Kyle Shanahan, who has kept his team in the hunt despite an absurd number of notable injuries.
The 49ers survived an extended period without starting signal-caller Brock Purdy and tight end George Kittle, who have returned from the shelf in recent weeks. They’ve also had to get by for most of the year without their two best defensive players, linebacker Fred Warner and end Nick Bosa. Warner suffered a fractured and dislocated ankle in Week 6. Bosa tore his ACL in Week 3. Without Bosa coming off the edge, the 49ers rank last in the league in sacks. Nevertheless, coordinator Robert Saleh has still cobbled together the game’s eighth-ranked scoring defense. Despite a failed run with the Jets, Saleh’s performance this season could earn him a second shot as a head coach in 2026.
The NFC West is setting up as a three-way fight to close out the season, but ESPN’s Football Power Index pegs the Rams as overwhelming favorites. They have a 56.3% chance to win the division. The Seahawks (27.5) and 49ers (16.3) are lagging well behind. How do you think it will play out? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.