Prospect Profile: Ty Simpson

Last year, we ended our Prospect Profile series with the 2025 NFL Draft’s most controversial quarterback. This year, we’ll start with one, and no quarterback prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft is driving more controversy right now than Alabama’s Ty Simpson.

While recent highly drafted quarterbacks have been benefactors of the transfer portal, this year’s draft class features some passers who have bucked that trend. Simpson, a consensus five-star prospect that 247Sports ranked as the 29th-best overall recruit and the fourth-best quarterback, committed to the only college he would end up attending when he was just a junior at Westview HS (Tenn.). The two top-ranked quarterback recruits of the class of 2022 — Drew Allar and Cade Klubnik — will also finish their collegiate careers having worn only one logo.

The son of a football coach — specifically, Jason Simpson, who has held the head coaching position at Tennessee-Martin since 2006 — Simpson was receiving college scholarship offers before he even arrived on his high school campus. Michigan offered him as an eighth grader, and Kentucky, Mississippi State (his dad’s alma mater), Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Baylor all offered him the summer before his freshman year. Over the years, he received every offer a recruit could ever dream of and took unofficial visits to several of those schools, making sure to cover his bases with some in-person research.

It wasn’t until the summer just before his sophomore year that he attended a Crimson Tide summer football camp and received an offer from Nick Saban. He returned in September to attend a home game against Ole Miss, during which he watched Tide passer Tua Tagovailoa complete 72.2 percent of his passes for 418 yards and six touchdowns (five to Devonta Smith). At the end of his junior year, he chose Alabama over Clemson, Ole Miss, and Tennessee, then he proceeded to sign in December and enroll early.

Simpson made his collegiate debut in the Tide’s season opener, appearing for some garbage time snaps as a true freshman. He would appear in three more games that year but be limited to just those games in order to preserve his redshirt. As a redshirt freshman and sophomore, Simpson continued in his garbage-time duties after Jalen Milroe, a four-star recruit from the class before his, took over starting duties. After three years of waiting, Simpson finally got his opportunity to start as a redshirt junior.

After a disappointing (and, in hindsight, shocking) season opening loss to Florida State, in which Simpson would complete only 53.5 percent of his passes and average only 5.9 yards per attempt, Simpson rebounded in a big way. Leaving his performance against the eventual 5-7 Seminoles in the rearview, Simpson established himself as the clear top quarterback through the first nine games of the season. At that point, he had completed 66.9 percent of his passes for 21 touchdowns and only one interception while averaging 273.4 yards per game. The next six weeks saw a stunning decline as he completed only 60.5 percent of his passes for seven touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging only 184.3 yards per game.

Simpson’s deterioration down the stretch of the season could be the result of many factors. The slide started with a loss at home to Oklahoma, a top-seven defense in both points and yards allowed, and many believe the Sooners revealed a blueprint for finding success against the Tide, though that theory would lose credibility once Alabama got revenge in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Others put stock into the players around Simpson, pointing out that a usually potent Alabama rushing unit finished 125th in the FBS in yards per game last season, while freshman phenom wide receiver Ryan Williams developed a bit of a sophomore slump, disappearing for just 13 receptions, 161 yards, and no touchdowns in those last six games.

Simpson’s health may have played into his struggles, as well. It’s believed that he played through a lower back injury and elbow bursitis starting sometime in October, while also suffering from gastritis that caused his weight to dip almost 20 pounds. To top it all off, his season ended with a fractured rib, suffered in a season-ending loss to the eventual champion Hoosiers. Regardless of the exact reason(s), fair or not, the documented struggles will throw up red flags for scouts, either concerning his performance itself, his response to external factors, or his health and durability.

For all his struggles that sit fresh in mind from his most recent performances, Simpson still displayed some draft-worthy traits throughout his lone season as a starter. He’s at his best in the short- to intermediate-game, seeding throws with anticipation, accuracy, and velocity. He can air it out, as well, but the accuracy and timing on deep balls are far less consistent. He’ll need to develop a bit more touch, as well, to really get the most out of his game by implementing different degrees of arc on all levels of throws. Simpson isn’t heavy-footed, and though he doesn’t run much, he uses his feet to extend plays effectively.

One of Simpson’s best assets is his mental game. His ability to read defenses and process coverages pre- and post-snap is a testament to the time he spent sitting and learning before ever starting. He can also be a bit over-aggressive with his first instinct reactions after things go off script, and there’s also been loads of debate and concern over his decision to declare for the draft after only starting one season at the college level. There have been several examples of others doing the same, and the results have often been overwhelmingly more negative than positive.

Regardless, Simpson is widely seen as the QB2 of the 2026 NFL Draft class, behind only presumed No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza out of Indiana. That won’t likely land Simpson as the No. 2 overall pick, though. Over the past several weeks, Simpson’s draft stock as varied wildly, with some projecting him as a top-10 pick and others grading him as a third-round talent or later. The truth likely falls somewhere in the middle and will depend on external factors like the level of need that certain teams will have for his position and the actions of those teams before and during the draft.

The most recent projections have him either getting taken in the mid- to late-first round by a team that likely trades up for him or getting drafted on Day 2. I would be remiss not to remind that Shedeur Sanders held similar projections as the perceived QB2 behind Cam Ward for much of the pre-draft process last year. It will certainly be interesting to see if any other similarities play out from here.

5 Key Stories: 3/29/26 – 4/5/26

With the annual league meeting now in the books, attention around the NFL will increasingly turn to the upcoming draft. That will bring about several key storylines, but the past few days have been busy as well. Here is a quick recap of the past week’s top stories:

  • Walker Lands Jaguars Extension: Talks between Travon Walker and the Jaguars proved to be successful. Team and player agreed to a four-year, $110MM deal which will keep the former No. 1 pick in place through 2030. Walker secured $77MM in total guarantees along with $50MM fully locked in at signing. The 25-year-old saw his sack total drop to 3.5 in 2025 after two straight double-digit campaigns, but he will be counted on as a mainstay along the defensive front for years to come. This deal comes two years after Jacksonville’s previous regime inked Josh Hines-Allen to a big-ticket deal of his own. The Jags are also in negotiations with receiver Parker Washington and tight end Brenton Strange, so it will be interesting to see if agreements can be reached with them prior to the start of the 2026 season.
  • Cousins Joins Raiders: Following his Falcons release, Kirk Cousins drew interest from a number of teams. The free agent quarterback elected to join the Raiders, though, setting him up for a stint atop the depth chart early next season. Vegas is still universally expected to draft Fernando Mendoza first overall, and the Heisman winner will of course be viewed as the team’s quarterback of the future. Cousins, 38 in August, nevertheless managed to add further to his impressive total in terms of guaranteed money with this agreement. He will collect $10MM in 2026 (much of which will be Atlanta’s responsibility) while another $10MM is set to be paid out early next offseason as a roster bonus. Cousins’ future past that point is unclear, but he has his next NFL gig lined up.
  • Chiefs’ Rice Will Not Be Suspended: Rashee Rice is the subject of a civil lawsuit alleging domestic violence, something which prompted an NFL investigation. The Chiefs wideout will not be subject to a suspension, however, with the league’s probe concluding that the personal conduct policy was not violated in this case. Rice opened the 2025 season with a six-game suspension for his role in a hit-and-run incident, but the coming campaign will begin under different circumstances. The former second-rounder is entering the final year of his rookie contract; a strong showing would provide Kansas City’s offense with a needed playmaker while also increasing his chances of remaining in the fold beyond 2026.
  • Rams’ Nacua Staying At Rehab Center: It was recently learned that Rams wideout Puka Nacua checked himself into a rehab facility in Malibu, California in March. He remains there at this time, with a focus on “personal growth” being the target. Nacua, 24, has been involved in multiple off-field matters early in his NFL career, including accusations made by a woman regarding an alleged incident on New Year’s Eve in 2025. Nacua is now the subject of a lawsuit filed by the alleged victim, with a hearing scheduled for next week. Nacua has been one of the NFL’s top receivers since arriving in Los Angeles three years ago, but no extension is imminent in his case as he approaches the final year of his rookie contract.
  • Bears Already Planning Williams Extension: As a 2024 draftee, Caleb Williams will not be eligible for an extension until next offseason at the earliest. The Bears will nevertheless devote time this summer to exploring the terms of a new deal for their franchise quarterback. Williams enjoyed a strong first year playing under Ben Johnson in 2025, helping lead Chicago to the divisional round of the playoffs. Especially if the former No. 1 pick delivers a similar showing this year, a monster commitment will likely be in store. In any case, Williams is likely to have his fifth-year option exercised next spring, something which would keep him under team control through 2028.

Poll: Will Eagles Trade A.J. Brown?

The future of Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown has been in question since he voiced his frustration with their offense on multiple occasions in 2025. The heat has turned up since the Eagles’ season ended with a listless offensive showing in a 23-19 loss to the visiting 49ers in the wild-card round. Trade rumors centering on Brown have persisted over the past two-plus months, and that may be the case for at least several more weeks.

Eagles general manager Howie Roseman has considered dealing Brown, though it does not appear that he will budge for less than a first-round pick as this month’s draft approaches. One GM confirmed to Ben Volin of the Boston Globe that the Eagles have asked for “a one and change” this offseason. It would come as a surprise if a trade occurs before or during the draft, Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports writes, as the finances would work heavily against Philadelphia.

Trading Brown before June 1 would leave the Eagles with a $43.51MM dead cap hit — a record for his position — and cost them $20.12MM in space. A trade on June 2 or later would enable the Eagles to spread the dead money over two years. They would take on $16.35MM in 2026 and $27.1MM in ’27, though parting with Brown would open up $7MM in breathing room next season. While that makes a summer swap more likely, Jones does not “get the impression” a deal will come together immediately on June 2.

As for teams that could acquire Brown, the Patriots, Chargers, Bills and Chiefs are reportedly on the three-time Pro Bowler’s wish list. Los Angeles, Buffalo and Kansas City have not shown much interest, though perhaps they or other teams will enter the sweepstakes depending on how the draft unfolds. L.A.’s more successful franchise, the Rams, engaged in talks with the Eagles, but a trade between the NFC powers is unlikely to occur.

On the other hand, it would not surprise anyone if the Patriots reel in the soon-to-be 29-year-old Brown. Even after adding ex-Packer Romeo Doubs on a four-year, $68MM contract in free agency, the Pats are considered the favorites to acquire Brown (there is a “broad assumption” they will, Volin writes). He would offer a more-than-capable replacement for the reigning AFC champions’ 2025 leading receiver, the released Stefon Diggs. Brown also has a strong relationship with head coach Mike Vrabel dating to their time together in Tennessee from 2019-21. Now a seven-year veteran, Brown registered two of his six 1,000-yard seasons as a Titan.

The Patriots or any other acquiring team would expect Brown to notch a fifth straight 1,000-yard campaign in 2026, but losing his consistently solid production would weaken a contending Eagles team. With Philadelphia expected to push for a third consecutive NFC East title next season, Roseman may be content to keep the Brown-DeVonta Smith receiver tandem intact. How do you expect this saga to play out?

What will happen with A.J. Brown?

  • The Eagles will trade him between June 2 and the start of the season 55% (751)
  • The Eagles will keep him 36% (488)
  • The Eagles will trade him before June 1 9% (123)

Total votes: 1,362

2027 NFL Fifth-Year Option Tracker

NFL teams have until May 1 to officially pick up fifth-year options on 2023 first-rounders. The 2020 CBA revamped the option structure and made them fully guaranteed, rather than guaranteed for injury only. Meanwhile, fifth-year option salaries are now determined by a blend of performance- and usage-based benchmarks:

  • Two-time Pro Bowlers (excluding alternates) will earn the same as their position’s franchise tag
  • One-time Pro Bowlers will earn the equivalent of the transition tag
  • Players who achieve any of the following will receive the average of the third-20th top salaries at their position:
    • At least a 75% snap rate in two of their first three seasons
    • A 75% snap average across all three seasons
    • At least 50% in each of first three seasons
  • Players who do not hit any of those benchmarks will receive the average of the third-25th top salaries at their position

PFR’s Offseason Outlook series examined each of these decisions in-depth, and weeks remain until this year’s deadline. In the meantime, we will use the space below to track all the 2027 option decisions from around the league:

  1. QB Bryce Young, Panthers ($25.9MM): To be exercised
  2. QB C.J. Stroud, Texans ($25.9MM): To be exercised
  3. DE Will Anderson Jr., Texans ($21.51MM)
  4. QB Anthony Richardson, Colts ($22.48MM)
  5. CB Devon Witherspoon, Seahawks ($21.16MM): Exercised
  6. LT Paris Johnson Jr., Cardinals ($19.07MM)
  7. DE Tyree Wilson, Raiders ($14.48MM)
  8. RB Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($11.32MM)
  9. DT Jalen Carter, Eagles ($27.13MM)
  10. RT Darnell Wright, Bears ($19.07MM)
  11. G Peter Skoronski, Titans ($19.07MM)
  12. RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($14.29MM)
  13. DE Lukas Van Ness, Packers ($13.75MM)
  14. LT Broderick Jones, Steelers ($19.07MM)
  15. DE Will McDonald, Jets ($13.75MM): To be exercised
  16. CB Emmanuel Forbes, Rams ($12.63MM)
  17. CB Christian Gonzalez, Patriots ($18.12MM): Exercised
  18. LB Jack Campbell, Lions ($21.93MM)
  19. DL Calijah Kancey, Buccaneers ($14.48MM)
  20. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks ($23.85MM): Exercised*
  21. WR Quentin Johnston, Chargers ($18MM)
  22. WR Zay Flowers, Ravens ($27.3MM): To be exercised
  23. WR Jordan Addison, Vikings ($18MM): To be exercised
  24. CB Deonte Banks, Giants ($12.63MM)
  25. TE Dalton Kincaid, Bills ($8.16MM): Exercised
  26. DT Mazi Smith, Jets ($13.93MM)
  27. RT Anton Harrison, Jaguars ($19.07MM): Exercised
  28. DE Myles Murphy, Bengals ($14.48MM)
  29. DT Bryan Bresee, Saints ($13.93MM)
  30. DE Nolan Smith, Eagles ($13.75MM)
  31. DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Chiefs ($13.75MM)

* = Seahawks gave Smith-Njigba four-year, $168.6MM extension

5 Key Stories: 3/22/26 – 3/29/26

The coming days will be worth watching closely as aways thanks to the annual league meeting taking place. This past week has nevertheless seen a few notable developments as well, though. Here is a quick recap of the top stories from the past few days:

  • Smith-Njigba Lands Record-Breaking Seahawks Extension: One of the top Seahawks priorities for this offseason was extending former first-rounders Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Devon Witherspoon. One of those was taken care of, with Smith-Njigba agreeing to a record-breaking receiver deal. The 2025 Offensive Player of the Year landed $42.15MM in average annual value on a four-year extension. As such, he is on the books with Seattle through 2031. The pact contains over $69MM fully guaranteed at signing and ensures Smith-Njigba, 24, will remain a focal point on offense for years to come. Attention will now turn to Witherspoon, whose next contract could reset the cornerback market.
  • Buccaneers Icon David Retires: The Buccaneers will be without a franchise icon at the heart of their defense in 2026. Linebacker Lavonte David announced his retirement at the age of 36, bringing an end to his 14-year career. All of that decorated span was spent with Tampa Bay, and the former second-rounder remained a foundational member of the team’s defense throughout that span. David only collected one Pro Bowl nod and a single appearance on the first All-Pro team, but he will go down as one of the best players in franchise history and one of the most accomplished linebackers of his generation. He won a Super Bowl and collected over $103MM in career earnings. The Bucs will now prepare for a season without David or Mike Evans in the fold.
  • Mendoza Preparing For Raiders Selection: Since the Raiders clinched the first overall pick in April’s draft, they have been universally expected to select Fernando MendozaSigns continue to point in that direction, with the Heisman-winning quarterback spending time alongside Brian Griese to acclimate to the offense Vegas will be running in 2026. Mendoza has understandably scheduled a top 3o visit with the Raiders, and there will be little need for him to speak with other teams in the build-up to the draft. Vegas is in position to start over at the QB spot, and a new coaching staff along with a revamped roster will soon be officially joined by Mendoza.
  • Flacco Staying With Bengals: During the early stages of free agency, Joe Flacco examined his options with respect to an opportunity to compete for a starting gig in 2026. With none presenting themselves, the journeyman made the expected decision to re-sign with the Bengals. Flacco filled in for an injured Joe Burrow midway through this past season. He will be counted on to do the same if Burrow is once again unable to remain healthy. At the age of 41, Flacco will extend his career for at least one more year. The former Super Bowl MVP has racked up 209 career appearances, and a notable QB2 role will once again be in store in his case.
  • Jets Among Simpson’s Suitors: Mendoza’s situation is not subject to doubt at this point, but the draft range for fellow quarterback Ty Simpson remains the subject of considerable speculation. The Alabama product recently visited the Jets, a team in position to select a long-term option under center next month. New York owns pick Nos. 2 and 16, so there will be opportunities to bring in Simpson during the first round. Whether or not that will take place remains to be seen, and with the countdown to the draft continuing there is still a wide range of opinions on when his name will be called. Interest from the Jets and other suitors will be worth monitoring closely over the coming weeks.

5 Key Stories: 3/15/26 – 3/22/26

With the initial wave of free agency in the books, things have slowed down to a large extent around the NFL. Teams remain busy on the roster-building front with plenty of time remaining before the draft, however. Here is a quick recap of this week’s top stories:

  • Dolphins Send Waddle To Broncos: In the initial wake of the Dolphins‘ decision to move on from several veterans as part of their rebuild, it appeared as though Jaylen Waddle would remain in place. Instead, a trade agreement was reached with the Broncos. The veteran wideout was exchanged for Denver’s first- and third-round selections in this year’s draft, with 2026 fourth-rounders also changing hands. Waddle will offer a welcomed boost to the Broncos’ receiving corps as they seek increased efficiency and production in the passing game. The 27-year-old is under contract through 2028, so his arrival will overlap with quarterback Bo Nix‘s rookie deal. Having already released Tyreek Hill, meanwhile, Miami’s WR depth chart could use plenty of work during the remainder of the offseason.
  • Chiefs Acquire Fields From Jets: Since his midseason benching, Justin Fields was expected to see his Jets tenure come to an end. That proved to be the case when a trade was worked out with the Chiefs. Fields and a seventh-round pick in April’s draft were dealt from New York to Kansas City for a 2027 sixth-rounder. Patrick Mahomes continues to recover from the ACL tear which ended his season late in the 2025 campaign, and his Week 1 availability is in question. This move will give the Chiefs an experienced fill-in starter early in the year, and it will provide Fields with a period leading up to the fall where he handles first-team reps. The former first-rounder has largely struggled through his time in Chicago, Pittsburgh and New York. A brief stint atop the depth chart on his latest team will likely now await.
  • Tretter Lands Top NFLPA Job: Months after resigning from the NFL Players Association, J.C. Tretter has returned to lead the organization. The NFLPA’s vote for a new executive director resulted in Tretter winning the full-time position over interim leader David White and American Conference commissioner Tim Pernetti. Tretter and White were considered the contenders leading up to the vote, one which marks a key development for the union as it pertains to pending CBA negotiations. Tretter will aim to rebuild his stock and that of the NFLPA in general upon taking over. Meanwhile, free agent linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin will continue as the union’s president.
  • Seahawks Exercise Smith-Njigba, Witherspoon’s Options: First-round picks from the 2023 draft class are subject to fifth-year option decisions this spring. To no surprise, the Seahawks have picked up the option for both of wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba and cornerback Devon Witherspoon. The move ensures the Pro Bowlers will remain in place through at least 2027. Smith-Njigba earned Offensive Player of the Year honors this past season while leading the league in receiving yards. Witherspoon received a second-team All-Pro nod thanks to another high-end campaign as part of Seattle’s elite secondary. The Super Bowl champions can extend both players at any time this offseason. New deals in each case being finalized sometime between the draft and training camp in particular would come as little surprise.
  • Wentz Reunites With Vikings: The Vikings made one quarterback splash early in free agency by lining up a one-year deal with Kyler Murray. They were not done adding veteran passers, however, with Carson Wentz returning to Minnesota. In 2025, Wentz made five starts in place of an injured J.J. McCarthy before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. McCarthy is still in the fold, but the former first-round pick’s Vikings outlook is the subject of considerable speculation. Murray is expected to operate as the team’s starter for 2026, and Wentz will give head coach Kevin O’Connell another veteran option to turn to. It will be interesting to see how McCarthy’s development will be handled this summer coming of a rookie season missed through injury and a 2025 campaign marred by struggles when on the field.

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2026 NFL Top 50 Free Agents

While this year did not bring a record-setting salary cap spike, a $20MM-plus bump occurred for the third straight offseason and fourth over the past five years. We continue to see year-to-year leaps that dwarf what the 2011 CBA brought.

Now that the franchise tag application deadline has passed, a clearer picture of the 2026 free agent market emerges. The aim for PFR’s top 50 remains contract-based, but as our Offseason Outlook series has illustrated, numerous deals carrying creative vesting structures have seen players secure favorable guarantees without the full amounts being locked in up front. So, this year’s list leans a bit more toward total guarantees as opposed to upfront security.

Although players like Travis Kelce and Aaron Rodgers are bound for the Hall of Fame, they will not appear here. Big names are still present within this value-based collection, however. Players who could be released at the start of the 2026 league year – as likely post-June 1 cuts – or soon after are not included, only those out of contract for the ’26 season appear below. Teams have until 11am CT March 9, when the legal tampering period begins, to keep free agents-to-be off the market.

In Year 34 of full-fledged NFL free agency, here are the top options for teams to target once the legal tampering period starts:

1. Tyler Linderbaum, C. Age in Week 1: 26

The fifth-year option not being truly position-based affects a few of this year’s free agents, none more so than Linderbaum. Because all offensive linemen are grouped together under the tag formula, centers are almost never tagged. Few guards are. Linderbaum has presented the best case for a center tag in many years, and he is days away from bridging the gap that exists between the two interior offensive line positions.

There are seven guards earning $20MM per year, yet Creed Humphrey’s $18MM-AAV contract tops the center market. Only two centers (Humphrey and Cam Jurgens) earn more than $12MM – now that Drew Dalman surprisingly elected to retire and the Titans have cut Lloyd Cushenberry. Linderbaum will almost definitely become the NFL’s first $20MM-per-year center, and this free agency could remind of when Antoine Winfield Jr.’s 2024 Bucs extension briefly dragged the safety market past cornerback.

Baltimore has offered Linderbaum a market-topping deal, and after the Combine, the 2022 first-round pick likely knows his price range. The Ravens only have a few days left before ceding exclusive negotiating rights and losing the best center in team history.

The Ravens have seen four center Pro Bowl seasons in their 30-year history; Linderbaum has three of them (Jeremy Zuttah received the other). The Iowa alum has anchored the Ravens’ interior O-line, as the team continues to see guards come and go. Losing him would be significant for the AFC North franchise.

ESPN’s pass block win rate metric ranked Linderbaum fourth among all interior O-lineman last season; he ranked 13th in 2024. Pro Football Focus, conversely, has graded Linderbaum as a far superior run blocker. The agile lineman has certainly made a considerable difference for a run-reliant offense. The Ravens were able to keep Ronnie Stanley from testing free agency at the last minute in 2025, though the longtime LT was seeking a third contract. Will they do the same with Linderbaum?

Humphrey’s Chiefs deal includes just more than $50MM guaranteed in total. Tyler Smith’s $81.26MM number tops the guard market. I would expect Linderbaum’s guarantee to land closer to the Cowboys guard than the Chiefs center.

Corey Linsley set a center AAV record as a 2021 free agent; Linderbaum should blow the current mark out of the water. Citing cap inflation, Adam La Rose’s most recent PFR mailbag pegged a price around $21MM per year as realistic. In the event of a widespread bidding war, something close to Smith’s $24MM AAV could even be required to close this deal. With Humphrey, Jurgens and Frank Ragnow before them not testing the market when they signed big-ticket deals, future center extension aspirants may owe a debt of gratitude to Linderbaum moving forward

2. Alec Pierce, WR. Age in Week 1: 26

Like the changing of the guard the Colts observed when Michael Pittman Jr. usurped T.Y. Hilton in the wideout pecking order, Pierce made his case as Indianapolis’ WR1 in 2025. The former second-round pick ripped off his first 1,000-yard season despite the Colts splitting their final five games between Riley Leonard and a 44-year-old Philip Rivers at quarterback. Pierce paced the NFL in yards per reception for a second straight season, posting a 21.3-yard average a year after managing (somehow) a 22.3-yard number and 824 total with Anthony Richardson targeting him.

Richardson completed fewer than 48% of his passes that season, one of the least accurate starter slates this century, but Pierce (824 yards in 2024) continued his ascent from the Matt Ryan/Gardner Minshew years. He hit another gear in 2025 (1,003 yards in 15 games) and will benefit soon – from either a Colts re-signing or a big-ticket free agency deal. With George Pickens franchise-tagged, Pierce tops this year’s receiver market.

That is an interesting distinction for a player who has never caught more than 47 passes in a season. Pierce is maybe more high-end No. 2 than true No. 1, but this is typically the type of player who cashes in on the market. As Daniel Jones is the best quarterback Pierce has played with (with Ryan at the end by his Indianapolis stint), teams undoubtedly see growth potential in the deep threat.

Fifteen receivers are tied to $50MM guarantees; not counting Travis Hunter’s rookie deal, another six secured at least $40MM in total guarantees. Every player among that contingent caught at least 58 passes in a season before signing his second contract (11 recorded at least one 90-reception season). Of that group, all but two (Jameson Williams and Jerry Jeudy) had posted 70-catch seasons. Williams $66.13MM guaranteed without the benefit of free agency, while Eagles WR2 DeVonta Smith is at $69.99MM. Both may be better than Pierce, but the open market awaits.

Pierce’s Devery Henderson-like profile differs, making him an unusual player with regards to this WR salary bracket. But he will be able to infiltrate it soon. It will be interesting to see if the team that signs Pierce will call on him to be its lead wideout – the expected salary would make that likely – or cast him as a high-end complementary cog. The former second-round pick will soon be an outlier when it comes to reception volume among upper-crust WR earners.

3. Jaelan Phillips, EDGE. Age in Week 1: 27

This year brings a deep crop of free agent edge rushers. With this being a premium position, questions surround the lot of prime-years players available. Phillips is coming off a bounce-back season, once under-the-hood numbers are considered, and will garner considerable free agency attention. The Eagles were able to keep breakthrough linebacker Zack Baun from testing the market last year, but they are running out of time with Phillips.

Philly sent Miami a third-round pick for the rental rusher, and while he only finished his comeback season with five sacks, the 2021 first-rounder’s 35 QB pressures ranked 12th leaguewide. His pressure rate (18.8% — far north of Trey Hendrickson or Odafe Oweh’s 2025 numbers) ranked fourth among players with at least 250 defensive snaps.

Finishing a season healthy did maybe as much for Phillips’ stock, after he went down with Achilles (2023) and ACL (2024) tears. Phillips’ injury past stretches back to college, when he briefly retired from the sport after a concussion and other maladies (including some from a moped accident). A transfer to Miami, however, reenergized him.

The former five-star recruit landed on the first-round radar with the Hurricanes and showed plus form with the Dolphins, combining for 15.5 sacks over his first two seasons. Year 2 included a career-high 25 QB hits. The 6-foot-5 EDGE was on his way to a career-best season in 2023, tallying 6.5 sacks and seven tackles for loss in eight games. A Black Friday Achilles tear stalled his momentum, and a September 2024 ACL tear continued the midcareer misery.

Josh Sweat did not carry injury concerns and received “only” $41MM guaranteed in total from the Cardinals. That topped last year’s EDGE market, where Chase Young – who did carry major injury concerns – received $33MM guaranteed. Phillips hovers between these two in age, but his extensive injury past may place a cap on this market.

But with the NFL’s salary ceiling rising yet again, it would be hard to see this market settling south of $20MM per year. Last year, the Chiefs and Bills agreed to extensions (with George Karlaftis and Greg Rousseau, respectively) that included $64.8MM and $54MM in total guarantees. Phillips’ camp, representing a player who matches that duo with zero Pro Bowls, can aim for that range next week.

4. Trey Hendrickson, EDGE. Age in Week 1: 31

Among this market’s prime pass rushers, Hendrickson’s resume laps his peers. The Bengals sack ace finished back-to-back seasons with 17.5 sacks and has two more campaigns (2020, 2021) with at least 13. Hendrickson recorded at least 24 QB hits from 2020-24, topping out at 36 in managing to finish as Defensive Player of the Year runner-up on a bad 2024 Cincinnati defense. The Bengals appear set to lose their five-year defensive end cornerstone; this was preventable, but the team’s antiquated stand against post-Year 1 salary guarantees prevented an extension from being completed in 2025.

The Bengals offered Hendrickson a backloaded extension – three years, $95MM – last year but saw the disgruntled D-end reject it due to insufficient guarantee protection beyond Year 1. The Steelers’ T.J. Watt extension included full guarantees for the 2026 and ’27 seasons. Watt is more accomplished than Hendrickson, but he is also 31 and had tallied fewer sacks between the 2023 and ’24 seasons. The Bengals’ offer also trailed the Texans’ Danielle Hunter AAV of $35.6MM despite the latter being the same age with a similar resume.

Hendrickson agreed to a one-year, $21MM extension in 2023 in fear the Bengals would use the franchise tag on him in 2025. With the Tee Higgins saga lasting past that point, Hendrickson miscalculated that. He now resides in a similar situation to Haason Reddick.

Also starting slowly, Reddick joined Hendrickson as a 2017 draftee who broke through in a 2020 contract year. Both players signed $15MM-per-year deals – Hendrickson in 2021, Reddick in 2022 – they outplayed. Age became an issue for Reddick, whose 2024 holdout backfired, and it is worth wondering how much it will impact Hendrickson’s free agency.

Last year represented a clear window for Hendrickson to cash in – at 30 and coming off the two straight top-level pass-rushing seasons – but he was negotiating with a difficult adversary. And he underwent season-ending core muscle surgery after a seven-game campaign. That will dock Hendrickson’s stock, but by how much?

From 2016-25, there have been 79 10-sack seasons from players aged 27-30. In that span, only 17 such seasons exist from players aged 31-34. These are the years a Hendrickson suitor is acquiring. Among pure EDGE players, that age-31-34 sack number plummets to 11. Hendrickson should do well next week, but the decision to sign that Bengals extension in 2023 could cost him thanks to an injury-shortened 2025.

5. Rasheed Walker, T. Age in Week 1: 26

When the Rams and Ravens respectively took Alaric Jackson and Ronnie Stanley off last year’s market, Dan Moore Jr. benefited. A much-criticized Steelers tackle on his rookie contract, Moore became the NFL’s seventh-highest-paid left tackle at the time of signing. His four-year, $82MM deal – one that outflanked Jackson and Stanley’s pre-free-agency deals and Dion Dawkins and Garett Bolles’ 2024 extensions – represents a good guide for Walker, who received better reviews on his Packers rookie pact.

The Packers turned to Walker, a 2022 seventh-round pick, as their David Bakhtiari fallback option and saw him far outplay his draft position. Walker started 48 games from 2023-25, fending off first-round pick Jordan Morgan for the Green Bay LT gig. Morgan is poised to commandeer it (by default, as Broderick Jones did in Pittsburgh post-Moore), but Walker will cash in elsewhere.

Walker ranked 11th in pass block win rate last season and 14th in 2024. PFF was a bit less bullish due largely to the Penn State product’s run blocking. The advanced metrics site never ranked Walker higher than 40th overall among tackles. Similar skepticism did not derail Moore, and Walker will almost definitely do better than the $50MM guarantee Moore received from the Titans.

Seven LTs are on contracts that include at least $50MM in total guarantees. Not counting Will Campbell’s rookie deal, four more secured at least $40MM guaranteed. It would be stunning if Walker did not land at least $40MM guaranteed. Considering how rare it is that early-prime LTs hit the market – like the Steelers, the Packers used a first-round pick on a blindside successor (Morgan) – the former No. 249 overall pick will be one of this year’s FA winners.

6. John Franklin-Myers, DL. Age in Week 1: 30

The Broncos extended six players between late July and their bye week. After paying top-priority talents Courtland Sutton, Zach Allen and Nik Bonitto in camp, Denver turned to three other regulars – center Luke Wattenberg, defensive tackle Malcolm Roach and kicker Wil Lutz – during its bye. Franklin-Myers did not expect a new deal and has likely known what is about to happen on the market.

Although Franklin-Myers is approaching an age-30 season, the runway is clear for him to cash in. He is the best interior D-line option on this market – probably by a wide margin. After last year produced Milton Williams and other attractive interior D-line options, no one is rivaling Franklin-Myers – as of now, at least – in terms of unattached inside pass rushers.

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5 Key Stories: 2/22/26 – 3/1/26

This past week has seen the annual NFL Combine take place in Indianapolis. The event is always an interesting one to follow based on the developments which take place as teams prepare for the new league year. In case you missed any the top stories from the past seven days, here is a quick recap:

  • Cowboys Tag Pickens: Well in advance of the deadline for applying the franchise tag, the Cowboys took the expected route of tagging George Pickens. The fifth-year wideout had long been mentioned as a tag candidate, and the non-exclusive tender was applied. That leaves Pickens free to negotiate with other teams, but he is on course to play for Dallas in 2026. Whether or not a long-term pact – something both sides have expressed an openness for – can be worked out by July 15 will now become a storyline to watch closely. A new deal will very likely cost more on an annual basis than the value of the tag ($27.3MM), adding further to the cost of Dallas’ high-octane offense.
  • Jets, Titans Agree To Trade: Once the new league year begins in mid-March, the Jets and Titans will finalize a one-for-one player swap. Edge rusher Jermaine Johnson will head to Tennessee, while New York will acquire defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat in return. Scheme changes brought on by the hires of both teams played a role in the deal being agreed to. Johnson is set to play out his fifth-year option, so his level of play upon reuniting with Robert Saleh in Tennessee will go a long way in determining his value for next offseason. Sweat’s rookie contract runs through 2027, and he will look to carve out a run-stopping role with the Jets as they contemplate further trades this spring.
  • Pitts Receives Falcons Tag: The other franchise tag decision made so far concerns Kyle Pitts. The Falcons placed the tag on him and by doing so ensured he will play at least a sixth season in Atlanta. The former No. 4 pick will collect $15.05MM next year in the absence of a long-term pact being agreed to. Pitts has seen his production vary quite a bit from one year to the next, but he is coming off a strong campaign. With a completely new group of decision-makers in place for Atlanta, it will be interesting to see if a strong push is made to keep Pitts, 25, in place beyond 2026 or if he again spends the year as a pending free agent.
  • Browns Planning QB Competition: New head coach Todd Monken will oversee a quarterback competition during his first year leading the Browns. Cleveland still has Deshaun Watson under contract, and 2025 draftees Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel remain in the fold as well. Outside options (via free agency and/or the draft) will receive consideration as well, though, while Gabriel has been mentioned as a trade candidate. The Watson trade has proven to be a disaster for Cleveland, while Sanders’ NFL ceiling remains to be seen. Major improvement will be needed on offense in 2026, but that could include a signal-caller not currently on the roster.
  • NFLPA Exec. Director Finalists Emerge: Since Lloyd Howell‘s resignation, the NFL Players Association has operated with David White as its interim executive director. White is one of three finalists for the full-time position. The list also contains J.C. Tretter – who previously worked as the union’s president and chief strategy officer before himself resigning under controversial circumstances – and American Conference commissioner Tim Pernetti. March will see the NFLPA’s annual meeting for its 32 player reps take place. At that point, further clarity will emerge regarding who has the best odds of leading the embattled organization and when a final vote will take place.

2026 NFL Offseason Outlook Series

Pro Football Rumors is breaking down how all 32 teams’ offseason blueprints are shaping up. Going forward, the Offseason Outlook series is exclusive to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, and that link provides details on how to sign up for an annual membership.

Here are PFR’s 2026 rundowns of the 32 teams’ offseason blueprints:

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

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