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Offseason In Review: Baltimore Ravens

August 18th, 2017 at 9:40am CST by Rory Parks

The Ravens narrowly missed the playoffs last year, blowing a golden opportunity to put themselves in the driver’s seat for a divisional title in Week 16 before allowing the Steelers to drive the length of the field in the game’s waning moments. That was essentially the story of the season for Baltimore, as missed opportunities and fourth quarter collapses turned what might have been a successful campaign into a disappointment.

Depending on who you ask, the offseason has not been much better. The Ravens focused most of their attention, both in free agency and in the draft, on the defensive side of the ball when the offense sorely needed help. While Jeremy Maclin surprisingly falling into their laps late in the spring helped to mitigate that somewhat, the offensive line is still a major question mark. It’s also fair to wonder how wise it is for the team to depend so heavily on third-year wideout Breshad Perriman considering that he missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury, had an up-and-down 2016, and is currently being held out of training camp with hamstring soreness (thus halting the momentum he had built in spring and in the early stages of camp).

The Ravens have a fair amount of talent and could make some noise in the AFC North, though their recent spate of injuries is threatening to derail the season before it starts. One might also ask whether the conservative and predictable play-calling of offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg and defensive coordinator Dean Pees will get the most out of their talent, and whether a mixed bag of an offseason will be enough to get Baltimore back to the postseason.

Notable signings:

Brandon Williams, DT: Five years, $52.5MM. $24.5MM guaranteed.
Tony Jefferson, S: Four years, $34MM. $19MM guaranteed. $3MM available via incentives.
Jeremy Maclin, WR: Two years, $11MM. $6MM guaranteed. $3MM available via incentives.
Brandon Carr, CB: Four years, $24MM. $4MM guaranteed.
Danny Woodhead, RB: Three years, $8.8MM. $3.25MM guaranteed.
Anthony Levine, S: Three years, $4.2MM. $1.3MM guaranteed.
Lardarius Webb, S: Three years, $6.3MM. $1.2MM guaranteed. $1.4MM available annually via incentives. Had previously been released.
Michael Campanaro, WR: One year, $1.2MM. $250K guaranteed. $800K available via incentives.
James Hurst, T: One year, $1.2MM. $250K guaranteed.
Austin Howard, T: Three years, $16MM. Guarantees unknown.
Ryan Jensen, G: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Terrance West, RB: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Brandon Boykin, CB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Larry Donnell, TE: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Thaddeus Lewis, QB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Bobby Rainey, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Trevin Wade, CB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Griff Whalen, WR: One year, minimum salary benefit.

The Ravens landed two key offensive pieces late in the offseason in Maclin and Austin Howard, but until that point, they had invested the vast majority of their assets into the defensive side of the ball. One of the most curious moves of the offseason was the massive payday Baltimore doled out to Brandon Williams. Williams is a terrific player to be sure, but he’s not a generational talent, and Baltimore has a quality defensive tackle in Michael Pierce that might have filled in capably for Williams at a fraction of the price. Plus, the Ravens have always been able to find quality defensive linemen. It has been more of a struggle to find quality offensive pieces, and the fact that Baltimore spent so lavishly on Williams and Tony Jefferson while letting right tackle Ricky Wagner walk in free agency and ignoring free agent wideouts like Alshon Jeffery and Terrelle Pryor — who both signed relatively inexpensive deals — certainly raised some eyebrows.

Luckily for the Ravens, it may have worked out anyway, though it’s hard to say it was by design. No one expected a receiver like Maclin to become available when he did, and while Howard could be a solid replacement for Wagner, he is coming off an injury-plagued season in which his performance took a noticeable dip. Danny Woodhead, who for a long time was Baltimore’s big offensive acquisition, offers a nice complement to the bruising running style of Terrance West, and if he can stay healthy — a big “if” for players wearing purple and black these days — he should be a big contributor as a receiver out of the backfield and will surely line up in the slot a fair amount.

Jefferson will join last year’s big free agent splurge, Eric Weddle, to form arguably the best safety tandem in the game, and the Ravens also signed Brandon Carr to bolster its cornerback corps, which has been thin in recent seasons and which has really suffered when No. 1 corner Jimmy Smith has been forced to sit out due to injury. Unfortunately for Baltimore, sophomore corner Tavon Young, who was excellent in his rookie season, tore his ACL and will miss all of 2017, which precipitated the Brandon Boykin signing. Maurice Canady, another sophomore corner who enjoyed a terrific spring and a strong start to training camp, was the favorite to replace Young, but he, too, went down with a potentially serious knee injury, so it looks as if Smith and Carr will man the perimeter while Boykin or stalwart Lardarius Webb will line up in the slot (though first-round draft choice Marlon Humphrey could replace Carr later in the season). That sounds like a decent enough group of CBs, but one more injury could lead to the same problems in coverage that the Ravens have experienced of late.

Nonetheless, the defense looks strong as a whole, and with the influx of young athleticism that the team added to that side of the ball in the draft, the only thing holding that unit back (outside of injury) is Pees. Wideouts Maclin, Mike Wallace, and Perriman offer considerable talent and complementary skill-sets on the offensive side of the ball, and if the Ravens can find some production from the tight end spot — see below — and if Joe Flacco can overcome his back injury, Baltimore should be in pretty good shape.

Kamar Aiken, WR
Kyle Arrington, CB: Released
Vlad Ducasse, G
Matt Elam, S
Lawrence Guy, DL
Marqueston Huff, S: Tender withdrawn
Kyle Juszczyk, FB
Kendrick Lewis, S: Released
Chris Lewis-Harris, CB
Zach Orr, LB: Retired (now attempting comeback)
Dennis Pitta: Released
Jerraud Powers, CB: Retired
Jumal Rolle, S: Tender withdrawn
Steve Smith, WR: Retired
John Urschel, C: Retired
Ricky Wagner, T
Shareece Wright, CB: Released

Many of the Ravens’ losses will not be missed, as they were marginal starters or roster filler. Steve Smith‘s production should be more than adequately replaced by Maclin and a more seasoned Perriman, and while Zach Orr‘s retirement (?) was an unpleasant surprise, he is hardly irreplaceable. The surprise retirement that arguably hurt the team more was that of John Urschel. His departure from the game, along with the subsequent season-ending injuries to Alex Lewis and Nico Siragusa, have left a massive void at left guard that has led the team to consider signing Jeremy Zuttah (Zuttah would play center and shift Ryan Jensen to left guard). Zuttah was a turnstile in 2016, he does not fit in a power-running scheme, and the Ravens thought so little of him that they traded him to the 49ers earlier this offseason for the right to move up 12 spots in the sixth round of the draft (Zuttah was later released by San Francisco and is currently a free agent).

Much has been made of Dennis Pitta‘s release, which was precipitated by yet another hip injury, and the hole that will leave in the Ravens’ offense. In reality, although Pitta did haul in 86 catches last year, very few of his receptions went for significant yardage, and he was more of a dump-off option (in a dump-off heavy offense) in 2016. The Ravens’ tight end corps is far from reliable, given that Ben Watson is 36 and is coming off a torn ACL, Crockett Gillmore suffered a season-ending knee injury, Maxx Williams has had difficult staying healthy in his young career, and Darren Waller managed to get himself suspended for the entire 2017 season. Nonetheless, it is hard to argue that Pitta will be missed from an on-the-field perspective, as he had no explosiveness in 2016 and his YAC was non-existent. He was a fan favorite and it is a shame that his career has been (presumably) cut short by a series of unfortunate hip injuries, but it was time for Baltimore to move on.

Aside from the above-mentioned departure of Wagner and Urschel’s retirement, the only notable losses the Ravens sustained this offseason were due to injury, not free agency.

Trades:

Acquired a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 186) from the 49ers in exchange for C Jeremy Zuttah and a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 198).
Acquired a 2017 third-round pick (No. 74) from the Eagles in exchange for DT Timmy Jernigan and a 2017 third-round pick (No. 99).

Draft picks:

1-16: Marlon Humphrey, CB (Alabama)
2-47: Tyus Bowser, LB (Houston)
3-74: Chris Wormley, DT (Michigan)
3-78: Tim Williams, LB (Alabama)
4-122: Nico Siragusa, OL (San Diego State)
5-159: Jermaine Eluemunor, OL (Texas A&M)
6-186: Chuck Clark, S (Virginia Tech)

The Ravens waited until the fourth round to select an offensive player in this year’s draft, and while their fourth-round selection, Siragusa, was a quality pick, he will miss the season with a torn ACL. Nonetheless, the team began making a concerted effort in 2016 to infuse its defense with sorely-needed speed and athleticism, and that was never going to be a one-year project. Adding Bowser and Williams should be a boost to a flagging pass rush, and Bowser has looked like a three-down back in training camp. Those rookies, along with second-year linebacker Matt Judon and the aging but still effective Terrell Suggs, should allow the Ravens to generate consistent pressure on the quarterback in 2017.

The selection of Humphrey puzzled many observers, as the Ravens could have selected an offensive play-maker like O.J. Howard even though their top wide receiver targets were off the board long before Baltimore was on the clock. However, Humphrey has plenty of promise as an outside corner, and the same analysts who criticized the team for failing to select an offensive talent were also quick to point out in recent seasons that the Ravens needed to address their thin secondary. While Humphrey is not suited to play in the slot, the injuries to slot corners Young and Canady underscore the need to continuously restock the defensive backfield, and Jimmy Smith’s injury history — and the Ravens’ struggles when he is unable to suit up — made Humphrey a solid choice. Thus far, he has validated his draft status with a strong showing in spring and in training camp.

Eluemunor was selected as a raw talent that the team hoped to bring along slowly, but he could be thrust into the starting lineup sooner rather than later considering the holes that the Ravens have on their O-line. Indeed, he could emerge as one of the surprise impact players of 2017 if he can somehow start living up to his potential right away.

Extensions and restructures:

Jimmy Smith, CB: Restructured contract. Created $5.15MM in cap space by converting $7.725MM in 2017 base salary into signing bonus.
Ben Watson, TE: Accepted pay cut. Reduced 2017 base salary from $3MM to $1.25MM ($750K guaranteed). Incentives can bring total back to $3MM.

The Ravens were forced to restructure Jimmy Smith’s contract for the second straight year to give themselves a little breathing room, especially since they will probably need to sign at least one more offensive lineman before the regular season begins. The team has been tight against the cap for the past several seasons, and contracts like the one they handed out to Williams have exacerbated that problem. Baltimore actually has so much D-line depth at the moment that it will probably need to trade at least one quality player in the coming weeks, which further emphasizes the point that it could have spent its money more wisely.

Other:

Hired former Bills OC Greg Roman as senior offensive assistant/tight ends coach.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for LB C.J. Mosley ($8.718MM).
Learned RB Kenneth Dixon would miss the 2017 season (torn meniscus). Dixon had been suspended four games (PEDs).
Learned TE Crockett Gillmore would miss the 2017 season (torn meniscus).
Learned OL Alex Lewis would miss the 2017 season (shoulder surgery).
Learned OL Nico Siragusa would miss the 2017 season (torn ACL).
Learned CB Tavon Young would miss the 2017 season (torn ACL).
Learned TE Darren Waller was suspended at least one year (substance abuse).
Signed 15 undrafted rookie free agents.

The theme of the Ravens’ offseason has been injuries. We have already touched on most of the injuries referenced here, but the Dixon injury will also hurt the team in a big way. While West is a competent back, and Woodhead offers solid ability as a receiver out of the backfield, Dixon has explosive playmaking ability that the Ravens will sorely miss in 2017. The team brought in Greg Roman to strengthen a run game that was among the league’s worst in 2017, but his task becomes considerably more difficult in light of Dixon’s torn meniscus. At this point, UDFA Taquan Mizzell might be the second-best back on the roster, and Baltimore could look into adding a player like Ryan Mathews to replace Dixon.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Joe Flacco, QB: $24,550,000
Jimmy Smith, CB: $12,600,000
Marshal Yanda, G: $9,125,000
Mike Wallace, WR: $8,000,000
Terrell Suggs, DE: $6,950,000
Brandon Williams, DT: $6,000,000
Eric Weddle, S: $5,750,000
Tony Jefferson, S: $5,500,000
Ronnie Stanley, T: $4,655,530
Eugene Monroe, T: $4,400,000 (dead money)

The Ravens are clearly a team with some holes, particularly along the O-line. Tight end and running back are also a bit of question mark, and if Flacco is not 100%, Baltimore is not going anywhere, Colin Kaepernick or no Colin Kaepernick.

But the Ravens also have talent. They have quality receivers (if they can stay healthy), and they have all the makings of a top-5 defense, which they will probably need to rely on heavily in 2017. The biggest obstacle for the defense, aside from health, might be Pees, who has struggled to get the most out of his defenses in his career as a defensive coordinator, and whose conservative philosophies led to some of the team’s late game collapses last year.

Luckily for Baltimore, their AFC North foes also have some serious flaws, and the Ravens have enough talent to be competitive in every game they play. If they can win one or two more of the “toss-up” games that they dropped last season, they could find themselves back in the playoffs, despite a postseason that generated as many groans as grins.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Ryan Mathews

August 15th, 2017 at 5:29pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Eagles finally ended the NFL’s longest charade today, releasing veteran running back Ryan Mathews months after it became clear they’d do so. Philadelphia had reason to wait, of course, as now that Mathews has received medical clearance, the club is off the hook for $1.15MM in injury protection.

Mathews, a first-round selection back in 2010, has mostly been defined by his lack of availability through seven NFL campaigns. He’s appeared in all 16 games just one time, and has missed roughly a quarter of the 112 total games in which he could’ve played. Additionally, Mathews is now on the wrong side of 30, and is hitting an age when some running backs break down.

Those negative attributes are obvious, but Mathews still has quite a bit to offer interested NFL clubs. In fact, he’s perhaps the perfect NFL backup running back. Here’s why:

Production

Given that Mathews has missed so much time during his career, it’s more informative to assess his production on a per-play basis rather than in the aggregate. Defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) is a Football Outsiders metric that measures value on a rate basis, and can be applied to either team or individual performance. In seven NFL seasons, Mathews has ranked among the top-20 running backs in DVOA five times, including a No. 3 finish in 2015. So while Mathews’ counting statistics might not be all that impressive (he’s crossed the vaunted 1,000-yard threshold only twice), he’s been extremely valuable when he’s been on the field.

Success rate is another Football Outsiders metric that’s often helpful when evaluating running backs, at it determines how well a back keeps an offense moving. In general, a run will deemed a success if a back gains 40% of the needed yards on first down, 60% of the needed yards on second down, and 100% of the needed yardage on third down.

Different situations can adjust those percentage tiers, but overall the formula is a good indicator of how well a back is keeping an offense “on schedule,” as Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com writes. Mathews grades incredibly well based on success rate: In his seven NFL campaigns, he’s finished as a top-25 back in success rate six times, and ranked among the top-10 twice (2013 and 2015).

While he’s not an above-average pass blocker, Mathews can be useful in the passing game. He’s averaged 26 receptions per season during his career, and even reached 50 catches in 2011. Since entering the league in 2010, Mathews ranks eighth among all running backs with a 79.3% catch rate on 226 targets, so he can be relied on as a passing game weapon. Fumbles have been an issue for Mathews, however, as he ranks first among NFL backs with 21 fumbles since 2010.

As a backup running back, Mathews would — by definition — see his touches reduced. Not only would that perhaps allow Mathews to stay healthy, but he can still remain productive when he is called upon. Not being asked to play starter’s snaps would help both Mathews and the team that signs him.

Scheme Fit

When the Eagles signed Mathews prior to the 2015 season, NFL Films producer Greg Cosell called him a “decisive downhill runner,” and Fran Duffy of PhiladelphiaEagles.com explained why those traits worked so well for what was — at the time — a zone-blocking-Eagles run game. But Mathews can conceivably fit in any number of offenses, as Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus explained to me.

“I think [Mathews] can be a useful member of a backfield,” said Monson. “I actually think he’s quite scheme diverse and pretty versatile as a back, so he should have options.”

Additionally, Mathews has played under a number of offensive minds who are still employed in various roles throughout the league. That list includes Mike McCoy (Broncos offensive coordinator), Rob Chudzinski (Colts OC), Pat Shurmur (Vikings OC), Hal Hunter (Browns offensive line coach), and Jason Michael (Titans quarterbacks coach), meaning there’s no shortage of offensive coaches who have firsthand experience with Mathews.

Cost

Coming off an injury-plagued season in 2014, Mathews landed a three-year deal worth $11MM ($5MM guaranteed) with the Eagles. As he hits free agency for the second time in his career, Mathews won’t come anywhere near that total: while he’s offered solid production on a rate basis over the past two seasons, he’s also two years older and just recovered from a serious neck injury.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise if Mathews can only score a minimum salary benefit deal in the coming weeks. Such a contract would allow a club to pay Mathews at the seven-year veteran rate of $900K while only using $615K in cap space. Mathews could also receive a signing bonus of up to $80K.

Recent contracts for veteran running backs include Jacquizz Rodgers (two years, $3.3MM), Robert Turbin (two years, $2.7MM), and Lance Dunbar (one year, $1.5MM). Dunbar is probably the best comparable given that he’s spent most of the past two seasons dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness, but he’s also three years younger than Mathews. Whichever team signs Mathews should plan on taking on an eminently affordable salary, and cap space won’t be a barrier.

Signing Mathews would also eliminate another potential opportunity cost — the draft pick capital it may require to trade for a running back. Earlier today, I examined several backs that could be dealt in the near future, including Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill, and T.J. Yeldon, all of whom are probably upgrades on Mathews, but all of whom will require the sacrifice of a draft pick. For clubs that aren’t inclined to trade away future value, signing Mathews would cost only money, not picks.

Market

Mathews became the best available free agent running back the second he was released by the Eagles. While other veteran options include Rashad Jennings, DeAngelo Williams, and James Starks, none offer the combination of talent and relative youth that does Mathews. Any team looking for running back help should instantly vault Mathews to their top of their free agent lists.

With that said, here’s a look at several clubs that could make sense as a landing spot for Mathews:

Baltimore Ravens: Kenneth Dixon was already going to miss the first four games of the season after being suspended, but now he’ll be sidelined for the entire 2017 campaign after undergoing knee surgery. Terrance West looks like Baltimore’s bell-cow, while Danny Woodhead will play on passing downs. Mathews could give the Ravens another viable option in the backfield, and Baltimore’s coaches “have a lot of respect for” Mathews, as Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun tweets.

Detroit Lions: On an NFL-low 350 rushing attempts, the Lions finished 27th in yards per carry, 25th in DVOA, and 31st in adjusted line yards last season. Detroit has already upgraded its offensive line by signing Ricky Wagner and T.J. Lang, but the club is still relying on Ameer Abdullah, Dwayne Washington, Zach Zenner, and free agent addition Matt Asiata at running back. The Lions have reportedly talked with Rashad Jennings, but Mathews is a better player.

Los Angeles Chargers: Back to where it all began? With new head coach Anthony Lynn in town, the Chargers figure to lean heavily on the run, meaning Melvin Gordon could need a breather every once in awhile. Los Angeles’ reserves behind Gordon — Kenneth Farrow, Branden Oliver, Kenjon Barner, Andre Williams — are nothing to write home about, so Mathews could help out, especially as a pass-catcher.

Miami Dolphins: Mathews makes sense for the Dolphins, opines Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald (Twitter link), especially given that Jay Ajayi is recovering from a concussion. Ajayi, who dealt with knee injuries in college, needs a solid backup behind him in case injury issues crop up again. Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake (also battling a concussion) are interesting players, but Mathews is a more known commodity.

New York Giants: Big Blue ranked 26th in rushing DVOA last season, and the only investment they’ve made at the running back position since has been fourth-round rookie Wayne Gallman. While the Giants have made noise about Paul Perkins serving as a three-down back, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports Perkins “hasn’t blown anyone away” at camp, meaning the club could be searching for reinforcements.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Franchise-tagged running back Le’Veon Bell hasn’t yet reported to training camp, and while the Steelers may expect him to show up before the regular season starts, Pittsburgh might not want to rely too heavily on Fitzgerald Toussaint and rookie James Conner. Playing behind one the league’s best offensive lines, Mathews could have success with the Steelers.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Top 30 NFL Trade Candidates

August 15th, 2017 at 10:00am CST by Dallas Robinson

While the NFL isn’t a trade-happy league like the NBA or MLB, deals are becoming more common as each season progresses. Draft pick swaps will always dominate any listing of NFL trades, deals involving veteran players aren’t as rare as they once were. Seven trades involving veteran players have occurred since the draft ended — at this time last year, only one such deal had gone down. As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap noted in his excellent salary cap book, Crunching Numbers, trades are likely to become ordinary as front offices are taken over by younger, more out-of-the-box thinkers.

The players listed below as trade candidates aren’t ranked in any specific order — rather, we’ve attempted a league-wide look at players who could conceivably be on the move in the coming weeks or months. Contract status, overall ability, scheme fit, age, and coaching staff alterations all play a role in value, and each trait was factored into the likelihood of an individual player being dealt.

As always, you can find PFR’s complete list of 2017 NFL Trades right here.

Quarterback

A.J. McCarron, Bengals
Brock Osweiler, Browns

Although the Bengals haven’t openly shopped A.J. McCarron, they haven’t completely sealed off the idea of dealing their backup quarterback. The asking price is extremely high, however, as Cincinnati reportedly wants a first-round draft choice for McCarron. An unidentified team offered a second-rounder for McCarron this offseason, and the Bengals declined, an indication of the value the club places on McCarron.

Most likely, Cincinnati will need an injury to strike — and a club to get desperate — in order to meet its demands. In 2016, for example, the Vikings shipped a first-round pick to the Eagles in exchange for Sam Bradford after incumbent signal-caller Teddy Bridgewater went down. That situation presented the perfect opportunity for Philadelphia to reap compensation for Bradford, as Minnesota was a contending team with an immediate need under center. Bradford offered much more NFL experience than does McCarron, so a trade of the Bengals No. 2 quarterback remains unlikely.

Brock Osweiler, meanwhile, has a chance to act as the Browns’ Week 1 starter, but he’s not a long-term option for a club that used a second-round pick on DeShone Kizer. Cleveland has already rejected at least one trade offer for Osweiler this offseason, but it simply doesn’t make sense for the team to retain him on their roster. Having already acquired a second-round choice in exchange for taking on Osweiler’s contract, the Browns should convert most of his base salary guarantee into a signing bonus (thus reducing the cap hit for any interested parties) and send him to a quarterback-needy club.

Running back

Jeremy Hill, Bengals
Carlos Hyde, 49ers
Matt Jones, Redskins
Charles Sims, Buccaneers
T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars

New coaching staffs and pending free agency are key factors in labeling a player a trade candidate, and Carlos Hyde fits into both those buckets. Reports near the draft indicated the new 49ers regime wasn’t sold on Hyde, who has just one year left on his rookie contract, and the club has added several running backs this year, including free agent Tim Hightower and draft choice Joe Williams. Squarely in the midst of a rebuild, San Francisco has no reason to hold onto Hyde if it doesn’t plan to re-sign him, and early indications are Hyde hasn’t been offered an extension.

Charles Sims could play a key role for the Buccaneers while Doug Martin is suspended for the first three games of the season, but his long-term role with Tampa Bay is unclear. General manager Jason Licht said earlier this year that Martin “looked as good as [he’s] ever seen him,” and I’d guess Martin will reclaim the Bucs’ starting job once he returns. Until that point, Tampa Bay could probably get by with a committee of Jacquizz Rodgers, Peyton Barber, and Jeremy McNichols if it decides it can get a draft pick for Sims, who is scheduled for free agency in 2018.

There are enough teams around the NFL looking for depth at running back that each of these backs should be able to create some sort of trade market. Speculative fits: Jeremy Hill, Giants; Hyde, Ravens; Matt Jones, Lions; Sims, Steelers; T.J. Yeldon, Chargers.

Wide receiver

Phillip Dorsett, Colts
Cody Latimer, Broncos

Despite being selected 29th overall just two years ago, Phillip Dorsett appears to be in danger of not earning a Colts roster spot. He’s behind former undrafted free agent Chester Rogers and free agent signee Kamar Aiken on Indianapolis’ depth chart, and new general manager Chris Ballard doesn’t have any allegiance to the former Miami wideout. Eric Galko of the Sporting News (Twitter link) suggested the Jets — who recently lost Quincy Enunwa for the year — could be a fit for Dorsett, while the Bills, 49ers, Panthers, and Browns also make some deal of sense.

Garrett Celek/Vance McDonald, 49ers
Zach Miller, Bears
Richard Rodgers, Packers

The Bears reportedly told rival teams at this year’s scouting combine they’d be open to trading Zach Miller if they drafted a tight end, and draft a tight end they did. Chicago selected Ashland’s Adam Shaheen in the second round, and also signed former Dolphins tight end Dion Sims to a three-year, $18MM deal. An acquiring club would take on $2.5MM by trading for Miller, with $1MM of that total tied to per-game roster bonuses. Given that the Bears like fellow tight end Daniel Brown (who is just 25 years old as opposed to Miller’s 31), they could be motivated to make a deal.

Vance McDonald, meanwhile, is potentially the most obvious trade candidate listed here, as 49ers general manager John Lynch admitted that he dangled McDonald in talks. Previous San Francisco GM Trent Baalke inked McDonald to a five-year, $35MM extension that begins in 2017, and other teams are unlikely to be interested in taking on that contract. And because the 49ers have so many tight ends, Garrett Celek might be available as well, as Jason La Canfora of CBSports.com hinted at Monday.

Unlike McDonald, Richard Rodgers hasn’t been mentioned in any trade rumors, so his inclusion is completely speculative. But the Packers made investments at tight end this offseason, signing both Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks to multi-year deals, and with Rodgers entering a contract year, Green Bay could conceivably look to move him. Kendricks is already playing ahead of Rodgers, per Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, and has never spent time on special teams. The Packers don’t use two tight end sets much (just 12% of plays, 31st in the league), so rostering three offense-only tight ends may not work.

Offensive line

John Greco, Browns
Jason Kelce, Eagles

Offensive linemen are tough to acquire this late in the offseason given that continuity is such a large part of the front five, but trades do happen: Just last week, the Eagles shipped guard Allen Barbre to the Broncos, and he’s already taking starting snaps. Another Philadelphia lineman, center Jason Kelce, has been on the trade block for some time, but the Eagles may not want to make any more offensive line trades after moving Barbre. Kelce has four years remaining on his contract, but an acquiring club wouldn’t be taking on any guarantees. The Ravens, who desperately need help on the interior, should see if Kelce is still available.

Defensive line

Arik Armstead, 49ers
Star Lotulelei, Panthers
Steve McLendon, Jets
Sheldon Richardson, Jets

Any inkling the Panthers may have had to trade Star Lotulelei likely evaporated when fellow defensive tackle Vernon Butler suffered a knee sprain in Carolina’s first preseason contest. Even if Butler only misses a few games, the Panthers aren’t going to erode their defensive line depth by moving Lotulelei. That’s not to say dealing him wouldn’t be the right move for the long haul, though. Given that Carolina has already locked up Kawann Short to an extension, it will be hard-pressed to keep Lotulelei when his contract expires next spring.

Call it rebuilding, call it tanking — the Jets are not trying to win in 2017. Therefore, it makes so sense for Gang Green to keep defenders like Steve McLendon or Sheldon Richardson on the roster, especially if there’s a market for either player. General manager Mike Maccagnan‘s goal of acquiring some sort of substantial draft pick compensation is a fool’s errand, as no club is going to sacrifice a high pick for a mercurial pass rusher with effort and contract questions.

Either of McLendon or Richardson should be of interest to the Saints, who are still figuring out how to replace Nick Fairley. Other teams with needs along the defensive line include the Dolphins, Colts, Broncos, Raiders, Lions, and Packers, the latter of whom has recently lost Letroy Guion (release) and Montravius Adams (short-term injury).

Edge defender

Jeremiah Attaochu, Chargers
Adrian Clayborn/Brooks Reed/Derrick Shelby, Falcons
Kony Ealy, Patriots
Aaron Lynch, 49ers

Hat tip to Justis Mosqueda of Setting the Edge (Twitter link) for tossing out both Jeremiah Attaochu and Aaron Lynch as possible trade targets for the Lions, who on Sunday lost one of their best edge rushers in Kerry Hyder. Attaochu left the Chargers’ preseason game with a hamstring yesterday, so he may no longer be an option, but Lynch is an intriguing fit for Detroit. Still only 24 years old, Lynch managed 34.5 quarterback hurries as recently as 2015, per the 2017 Football Outsiders Almanac, but has since dealt with injuries and a suspension.

Listing all three of Adrian Clayborn, Brooks Reed, and Derrick Shelby is admittedly cheating, but the Falcons might have too many edge rushers. Depth is never a bad thing, to be sure, but Atlanta probably isn’t going to keep more than nine defensive linemen. Undrafted rookie J’Terius Jones has posted a solid showing during camp, according to Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com, and could make the final squad, meaning a veteran would likely get pushed out.

Kony Ealy posted the best game of his career in Super Bowl 50 as a member of the Panthers, but the former second-round pick has quietly been a disappointment during his three-year career. He’s managed only 14 total sacks, and performed terribly against the run in 2016, something Patriots head coach Bill Belichick won’t abide. New England essentially acquired Ealy for free, as it only moved down eight spots in the draft to pick up the 25-year-old. Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reported last week that Ealy is in a “legitimate fight” to earn a Patriots roster spot.

Linebacker

Stephone Anthony, Saints
Mychal Kendricks, Eagles
Reggie Ragland, Bills

Stephone Anthony and Mychal Kendricks have been visibly on the trade block for some time, but Reggie Ragland could conceivably be dealt out of Buffalo before he ever plays an NFL down. The Bills aren’t quite going full Jets just yet, but they’re clearly planning for the future, as they traded Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby last week in exchange for lesser players and (more importantly) 2018 draft picks. Ragland, who was chosen in the second round a year ago and missed his entire rookie season with injury, is playing behind both Preston Brown and Gerald Hodges, and may not have a place in new head coach Sean McDermott‘s scheme.

Defensive back

Delvin Breaux, Saints
Kyle Fuller, Bears
Joe Haden, Browns
Trumaine Johnson, Rams
Kenny Vaccaro, Saints

Delvin Breaux admittedly wouldn’t have been on this list before a report indicating that the Saints are in fact shopping him, and while New Orleans has a bit more cornerback depth after selecting Marshon Lattimore in the first round, it doesn’t make much sense to trade Breaux when his value is at its lowest following an injury-plagued 2016 campaign. Vaccaro, on the other hand, is coming off his third excellent season in four years and has only one year left on his deal. If the Saints don’t reach an extension with him before the season, they could explore trading Vaccaro, especially after using second-round picks on Vonn Bell and Marcus Williams in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

The Rams have been discussing a Trumaine Johnson trade ever since placing the franchise tag on him in March, but despite reported interest from the Browns, Saints, and Steelers, no deal has been made. Johnson is now the league’s highest-paid corner after being franchised for two consecutive seasons, and Los Angeles doesn’t appear likely to retain him beyond 2017. Still, the Rams might be reticent to trade Johnson after dealing fellow corner E.J. Gaines to the Bills last week.

Kyle Fuller missed all of last season with a knee injury, and the Bears are counting on him for next season (or thereafter). Chicago signed free agents Prince Amukamara and Marcus Cooper this offseason, and subsequently declined Fuller’s 2018 fifth-year option. A rival club could be willing to take a chance on his draft pedigree, but his recent injury history could scare teams off.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Atlanta Falcons

August 14th, 2017 at 9:29pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Falcons suffered the most heartbreaking loss in Super Bowl history earlier this year, blowing a 28-3 lead to the Patriots after storming through the NFC bracket. Clearly, that defeat will stick with Atlanta and its fans for some time, but that shouldn’t take away from the excellent 2016 season the club posted. With most of a high-scoring offense (except for offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan) and a young, exciting defense returning, the Falcons’ offseason figured to be relatively quiet.

Notable signings:

Dontari Poe, DT: One year, $8MM. $7.5MM guaranteed.
Levine Toilolo, TE: Three years, $12MM. $4.5MM guaranteed.
Jack Crawford, DE: Three years, $9.9MM. $3MM guaranteed.
Matt Schaub, QB: Two years, $9MM. $2.5MM guaranteed.
Kemal Ishmael, S: One year, $2MM. $1MM guaranteed.
Andre Roberts, WR: One year, $1.8MM. $750K guaranteed. $500K available via incentives.
LaRoy Reynolds, LB: One year, $1.3MM. $250K guaranteed.
Courtney Upshaw, DL: One year, $1.15MM. $150K guaranteed. $200K available via incentives.
Taylor Gabriel, WR: One year, $2.746MM. Signed second-round RFA tender.
Derrick Coleman, FB: One year, $690K.
Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB: One year, minimum salary benefit.

Boasting one of the more complete rosters in the NFL, the Falcons didn’t have many areas of weakness to be addressed during the free agent period. Ameliorating their run defense was one such focal point, however, as Atlanta ranked 28th in DVOA against the run. In a market where Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams received more than $20MM in full guarantees on multi-year contracts, the Falcons declined to overpay and landed Dontari Poe on a one-year, $8MM deal.

Poe certainly has his positive attributes: he’s young (26), durable (just two career missed games), athletic despite his 6’3″, 250-pound stature, and can rush the passer from the interior. But it’s unclear just how helpful Poe will be at stopping the run. Among 115 qualified interior defenders, Poe graded 87th in run defense, according to Pro Football Focus. The Chiefs, Poe’s former employer, ranked 30th in total adjusted line yards last season and dead last in yards middle of their defensive line. That’s not to place all the blame at Poe’s feet, but he played the most snaps of any Kansas City defensive lineman in 2016.

While the Poe signing was certainly defensible, Atlanta’s addition of former Cowboys defensive end Jack Crawford made little sense, at least at the required price. While he did an admirable job guiding Clarice Starling in her encounters with Hannibal Lecter, Crawford doesn’t provide much that the Falcons defensive line didn’t already have. He’s a remarkably similar player to incumbent options Adrian Clayborn and Courtney Upshaw, the latter of whom also re-signed with Atlanta this offseason. Crawford isn’t as talented as either of those players, however, and at a cost of $3.3MM annually, he’s earning a similar salary to that of Erik Walden, Connor Barwin, and Julius Peppers, all of whom I’d take over Crawford.

The Falcons didn’t need to add much to an offense that ranked first in DVOA last year, but they did bring back two key insurance pieces: quarterback Matt Schaub and tight end Levine Toilolo. Now in his second stint as a backup in Atlanta, Schaub attempted only three passes in relief of Matt Ryan. While he’s a capable reserve, there’s little question the Falcons’ season would go down in flames if Schaub is forced to step in for Ryan for any serious length of time. Toilolo, meanwhile, is the perfect No. 2 tight end, as he’s a willing blocker who also plays on special teams. In 2016, Toilolo played 55% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps while rookie Austin Hooper saw roughly 40% playtime. Expect those percentages to flip next season.

The only external additions made by the Falcons — wide receiver Andre Roberts and fullback Derrick Coleman — should slot in as replacements for two departed Atlanta free agents, Eric Weems and Patrick DiMarco. Roberts will likely become the primary return man for the Falcons in 2017, although his roster spot isn’t a given just yet, per Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com. Entering his eighth NFL campaign, Roberts handled 33 kickoffs and 20 punt returns for Detroit last season. Coleman, 26, was out of of the NFL in 2016 following an alleged hit-and-run, but he should see ample playing time next season, as DiMarco played the second-most offensive snaps of any fullback in the league a season ago.

Notable losses:

As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap explained in an excellent offseason study, the Falcons are returning the majority of the players who contributed to their Super Bowl run, as they finished 29th in the NFL in terms of percentage of snaps lost. Additionally, Atlanta finished dead last with only 3.8% quality snaps lost, which factors in the amount of departed players who went on to sign with other clubs. The entire piece is well-worth a full read, but the main takeaway is that the Falcons didn’t lose a ton from the corps that led them to an NFC Championship title.

Veteran guard Chris Chester was the only Falcons player on either side of the ball that played more than 50% of his unit’s snaps and won’t return in 2017. Chester actually never left the field when Atlanta had the ball, as he played all 1,039 offensive snaps for the Falcons last season. Although he ultimately decided to retire, Chester wasn’t in the Falcons’ 2017 plans, anyway, as the team had no interest in re-signing him. With rookie Sean Harlow still adjusting to life as a guard, Ben Garland and Wes Schweitzer are competing to take over for Chester on the right side.

The rest of the Falcons’ notable losses on the offensive side of the ball were essentially bit players, veterans who played a role but were never a focal point on Atlanta’s offensive game plan. Patrick DiMarco, was one of the league’s most-deployed fullbacks, but he still played on less than a third of the Falcons’ offensive snaps. He was replaced by Derrick Coleman for a fraction of the cost. Tight end Jacob Tamme was Atlanta’s second-leading receiver in 2015, but is still in the midst of a lengthy recovery period following shoulder surgery. And Aldrick Robinson was a serviceable deep ball threat (six catches of 20+ yards), but he’s approaching age-30 and plays the same role as Taylor Gabriel.

Along the defensive line, Atlanta bid one longtime Falcon adieu, but hasn’t made a decision on its other age-35+ defender. Defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux had been the longest-tenured Falcon, as he’d spent the entirety of his 12-year NFL career in Atlanta, starting 133 games during that time. He’s expected to continue his career, but the Falcons made no attempt to re-sign him this spring. On the other hand, Atlanta hasn’t ruled out a reunion with defensive end Dwight Freeney, who only played on 27% of the Falcons’ defensive snaps but still finished with 18 quarterback hurries (39th in the NFL).

Atlanta’s decision to add several young linebackers over the past two seasons meant the club had no use for a trio of veteran ‘backers: Paul Worrilow, Philip Wheeler, and Sean Weatherspoon. Among that group, Wheeler played the most defensive snaps (339) while Worrilow chipped in the most on special teams (253 plays). With Deion Jones, De’Vondre Campbell, and Duke Riley now on board, the Falcons are going with youth at the second level of their defense.

Trades:

Acquired a 2017 first-round pick (No. 25; DE Takkarist McKinley) from the Seahawks in exchange for a 2017 first-round pick (No. 31), a 2017 third-round pick (No. 95; S Delano Hill), and a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 249; RB Chris Carson).
Acquired a 2017 third-round pick (No. 75; LB Duke Riley), 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 149; CB Damontae Kazee), and a 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 156; RB Brian Hill) from the Bills in exchange for a 2017 second-round pick (No. 63; OL Dion Dawkins).

Draft picks:

1-25: Takkarist McKinley, DE (UCLA)
3-75: Duke Riley, LB (LSU)
4-136: Sean Harlow, OL (Oregon State)
5-149: Damontae Kazee, CB (San Diego State)
5-156: Brian Hill, RB (Wyoming)
5-174: Eric Saubert, TE (Drake)

The Falcons had one of the league’s smallest draft classes, as they were one of only six clubs with fewer than six choices — but they made the picks count, specifically targeting areas of need and focusing in on particular players. On Day 1, Atlanta traded up in to acquire UCLA’s Takkarist McKinley in an attempt to find another edge rusher to pair with Vic Beasley. While Beasley led the league with 15.5 sacks in 2016, he managed only 16 quarterback knockdowns, leading to a 96.9% sack-per-knockdown rate that ranks second-highest over the past five seasons, according to Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com.

With Beasley likely to regress to the mean, the Falcons need more help on the edge, especially given that they rarely blitz. Atlanta will have a new defensive coordinator in 2017, but last year it rushed only four defenders 74.7% of the time, third-most in the NFL, per the 2017 Football Outsiders Almanac. McKinley has a “relatively raw approach and skill set,” says Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, but also boasts an excellent motor. While McKinley’s measurables aren’t all that impressive — he wasn’t a 2017 Force Player and ranked just 30th in SPARQ score among edge rushing prospects — it wouldn’t be surprise if he’s able to rack up sacks during his rookie season as opposing offensive linemen focus on other Atlanta defenders.

Duke Riley is the second LSU linebacker to be drafted by the Falcons in as many years, but he (and his 4.58 speed) will likely spend 2017 on special teams. Atlanta only played three-linebacker packages 19% of the time last season, so unless Riley usurps De’Vondre Campbell to play alongside Deion Jones in base sets, he may not see the field much. Likewise, offensive lineman Sean Harlow hasn’t even been mentioned as a contender for the Falcons’ right guard job, while Damontae Kazee and Brian Hill are buried on the depth chart thanks to Atlanta’s depth at cornerback and running back, respectively.

Extensions and restructures:

Devonta Freeman, RB: Extended through 2022. Five years, $41.25MM. $17.3MM guaranteed.
Desmond Trufant, CB: Extended through 2022. Five years, $68.75MM. $20.776MM guaranteed.
Ryan Schraeder, T: Restructured contract. Created $4.8MM in cap space by converting 2017 $6MM roster bonus into signing bonus.

While the merits of signing running backs to long-term contracts can be debated, Devonta Freeman is exactly the type of back who deserves to be paid if a club decides its going to ink a runner for several seasons. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2015, Freeman leads NFL running backs in approximate value (Pro Football Reference’s catch-all metric), and has reached 1,500 total yards and 13 total touchdowns in both campaigns. He’s now the league’s highest-paid running back on a multi-year deal (trailing only the franchise-tagged Le’Veon Bell), and his extension almost assuredly means fellow back Tevin Coleman will leave Atlanta when his contract expires following the 2018 season.

Freeman wasn’t the only player the Falcons extended through 2022 this offseason, as the club also locked up cornerback Desmond Trufant, making the fifth-year defensive back the NFL’s fifth-highest paid corner on a multi-year pact. Trufant missed the final six games of the regular season plus Atlanta’s postseason run with a pectoral injury, but the Falcons clearly feel that he’ll rebound to full health. Pro Football Focus ranked Truant as the league’s No. 32 cornerback in 2016, the lowest mark of his career.

Atlanta has several more extension candidates on the horizon, including quarterback Matt Ryan and left tackle Jake Matthews, each of whom is signed through 2018. Franchise owner Arthur Blank has indicated a willingness to make Ryan the highest-paid player in the league, which means Ryan could be earning close to $30MM by the time talks wrap up. The Falcons are already tight on 2018 cap space, however, as their ~$9MM ranks sixth from the bottom.

Other:

Hired Steve Sarkisian as offensive coordinator to replace Kyle Shanahan.
Promoted Marquand Manuel to defensive coordinator to replace Richard Smith.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for T Jake Matthews ($12.496MM).
Learned CB Jalen Collins would be suspended 10 games (PEDs).
Signed 21 undrafted rookie free agents.

While continuity has defined the Falcons’ offseason from a personnel standpoint, Atlanta is replacing both of its coordinators in 2016. New DC Marquand Manuel was promoted from within, so the club’s defensive strategies may not change all that much, but new OC Steve Sarkisian was hired from the college ranks, as he’ll replace Kyle Shanahan after one season with Alabama. Atlanta has an extremely defined offensive scheme and notable tendencies, such as their repeated use of play-action (27% of offensive plays, first in the NFL). Sarkisian doesn’t need to alter the offense after the Falcons boasted the league’s best offense in 2016, but he’ll certainly add his own ingredients to the mix.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Matt Ryan, QB: $23,750,000
Julio Jones, WR: $13,900,000
Robert Alford, CB: $9,600,000
Alex Mack, C: $9,050,000
Dontari Poe, DT: $8,000,000
Mohamed Sanu, WR: $7,400,000
Andy Levitre, G: $6,625,000
Adrian Clayborn, DE: $5,406,250
Jake Matthews, T: $5,227,568
Brooks Reed, DE: $5,040,000

The NFC South is possibly the NFL’s strongest division, as the Panthers, Saints, and Buccaneers all have legitimate postseason hopes in 2016. The Falcons are defending champions, however, and have as good a chance as any other club in the division to take the crown. While Atlanta’s offense could certainly regress towards the mean, the Falcons’ defense could take a step up under Dan Quinn & Co. Double-digit wins and a division title should be the immediate goal for Atlanta, with a Super Bowl appearance (and a win this time) ranking as the team’s ultimate aspiration.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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PFR Originals: 8/6/17 – 8/13/17

August 13th, 2017 at 6:21pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

With the 2017 regular season only several weeks away, PFR began its annual Offseason In Review series, assessing the major signings, departures, trades, and other notable events for each of the 32 NFL clubs. We covered two teams this week:
- Green Bay Packers
- Oakland Raiders
A recent report indicated the Bengals rejected a second-round pick for backup quarterback A.J. McCarron this offseason, so I attempted to figure out which clubs may have been involved in such talks with Cincinnati. I tossed out options such the Jets, Broncos, 49ers, and Browns, the latter of whom is the most likely contender for the mystery McCarron suitor, per a PFR reader poll at the end of the piece.

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Let’s Figure Out Who Offered A Second-Rounder For A.J. McCarron

August 11th, 2017 at 9:59pm CST by Dallas Robinson

An unidentified team reportedly offered the Bengals a second-round pick for backup quarterback A.J. McCarron this offseason, as Albert Breer of TheMMQB.com reported earlier this week. Cincinnati rejected the offer, as it apparently wants a first-rounder for McCarron, who will once again act as a reserve behind starter Andy Dalton in 2017.

McCarron, 26, doesn’t have much NFL experience, as he’s only made four total starts (all following a 2015 Dalton injury) during his three-year career. Although he posted a decent showing in those appearances, tossing seven touchdowns against two interceptions, the former fifth-round pick’s track record is admittedly limited. McCarron’s contract situation is also up in the air: while the Bengals reportedly believe he’ll be a restricted free agent in 2018 because he spent his rookie season on the non-football injury list, McCarron and his agent may have a different take. An arbitrator hearing and resolution likely won’t come until next season.

With those caveats in mind, let’s look at the possible candidates for who offered a second-round pick for McCarron:

Arizona Cardinals

Let’s start off this exercise with the one true wild card on this list, as the Cardinals already have their starting quarterback in another former Bengal, 37-year-old Carson Palmer. Given that Palmer hinted at retirement all offseason, it’s entirely feasible 2017 will be his final NFL season, and Arizona hasn’t established a plan for the future. Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert aren’t realistic options to take over under center if Palmer does hang up his cleats after the upcoming campaign, so it’s possible the Cardinals would have floated a Day 2 selection in order to land a long-term successor like McCarron. General manager Steve Keim hasn’t been afraid to trade draft picks in the past, although his other significant deal — sending a second-rounder to the Patriots for edge rusher Chandler Jones — was a win-now move. McCarron’s 2014 NFL.com draft profile noted his lack of a “big-time, vertical arm,” which would theoretically present a problem in a Bruce Arians offense.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills hemmed and hawed on whether to retain incumbent signal-caller Tyrod Taylor, and though it appeared as though he’d hit free agency, Taylor ultimately agreed to a short-term pact that will keep him Buffalo through the 2018 season. While McCarron would seemingly fit in new play-caller Rick Dennison‘s offense, the timeline of the Bills’ front office turnover makes it unlikely they were involved in McCarron trade discussions. Buffalo reached a new deal with Taylor just prior to the start of the 2017 league year in early March, and former general manager Doug Whaley was fired two months later. Targeting another quarterback just after working out a fresh pact with Taylor seems improbable, and Buffalo’s ownership wouldn’t have let a lame duck like Whaley make such a franchise-altering decision.

Chicago Bears

While the Bears were never linked to McCarron, they were interested in trading for another high-profile backup quarterback — the Patriots’ Jimmy Garoppolo. Rival clubs didn’t believe Chicago would be forced to part with its No. 3 overall pick in order to land Garoppolo, as a package of multiple second-round selections was thought to be enough to get a deal done. Clearly, that view was misguided in regards to Garoppolo’s availability, but the Bears were obviously willing to ship away draft choices in order to bring in a passer. Ultimately, Chicago not only signed free agent Mike Glennon, but sent a bevy of picks to the 49ers in order to move up one spot in the first round for UNC’s Mitch Trubisky. Sending a second-rounder to Cincinnati for McCarron, then, wouldn’t have been out of the question.

Cleveland Browns

The one club known to have held McCarron trade talks with the Bengals is the Browns, who were reportedly discussing McCarron as late as the first day of the draft in April. However, negotiations between Cincinnati and Cleveland apparently didn’t get very far, as the Bengals were had assigned a high price tag to its backup quarterback. Based on familiarity alone, the Browns were an excellent fit for McCarron, as Cleveland head coach Hue Jackson was the Bengals’ offensive coordinator when McCarron entered the league in 2014. The Bengals didn’t seem to have any qualms about dealing McCarron to a division rival, and Cleveland seems like an obvious contender for the mystery team that offered Cincinnati a second-round pick, especially given that it owned two of them heading into the draft.

Denver Broncos

An armchair psychologist might say general manager John Elway‘s insistence that the Broncos are not currently trying to trade for McCarron (“150% false) is a bit on the defensive side, but even if Denver isn’t looking into McCarron at the moment, that doesn’t mean the club wasn’t interested in him earlier this year. Yes, the Broncos used a first-round pick on Paxton Lynch just a year ago, but reports on him and fellow quarterback Trevor Siemian haven’t been positive. Plus, Denver was linked to at least one signal-caller upgrade — veteran Tony Romo — this offseason, meaning the Broncos were willing to put Lynch and Siemian on the bench if a better option was discovered.

Houston Texans

One of the three clubs on this list that ultimately traded up to select a quarterback in the first round of the draft, the Texans are now set for the future with Clemson’s Deshaun Watson under center. But would they have been willing to ship a relatively early pick to the Bengals for McCarron before acquiring Watson? Possibly, although the fact that McCarron would likely need to be extended relatively quickly may have presented a problem. The Texans are staring at long-term deals for wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, so cap space could quickly get tight. And after general manager Rick Smith whiffed on Brock Osweiler in 2016, Texans ownership may not have given approval for the front office to spend both draft pick capital and more cash on another unproven quarterback.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs actually selected another quarterback — Georgia’s Aaron Murray — one pick before McCarron came off the board to Cincinnati in the fifth round of the 2014 draft. But McCarron doesn’t look like a perfect fit for Kansas City, and like Houston, cap space problems would have likely come into play. The Chiefs are currently projected to be nearly $5MM over the cap in 2018, so extending or franchising McCarron would have possibly been untenable. As such, Kansas City needed the benefits of a rookie quarterback contract, and instead opted to trade up to acquire Patrick Mahomes out of Texas Tech.

New York Jets

Writing in early March, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com suggested the Jets may have looked into a possible Sheldon Richardson-for-McCarron trade, noting his belief that Cincinnati would have had to insert a draft pick to get a deal done. I completely disagree on that last point, as a quarterback — even a reserve — has more value than a unproductive edge rusher/defensive tackle (plus, Richardson is scheduled to earn nearly $8MM more than McCarron in 2017), the idea of Gang Green trading for McCarron wasn’t completely out of the question. New York isn’t trying to win during the upcoming season, however, and will limp through the campaign with Josh McCown, Bryce Petty, and Christian Hackenberg before presumably finding a quarterback in next year’s draft.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are one of the more interesting clubs on this list, as new head coach Kyle Shanahan should be allowed to essentially handpick his quarterback of the future at this point. San Francisco signed free agents Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley, and drafted Iowa’s C.J. Beathard in the third round, but any talks regarding McCarron likely would have occurred before the 49ers made those moves. Still, the idea that San Francisco would have offered a second-round pick for McCarron seems unlikely for a few reasons. First, the Niners’ second-rounder was No. 34 overall, an extremely valuable draft choice, and second, San Francisco is probably holding off on adding a long-term quarterback until the 2018 free agent status of Kirk Cousins — Shanahan’s former pupil — is resolved.

What do you think? Did one of these clubs offer a second-round pick for McCarron? Or was it another unidentified team? Weigh in here:

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Green Bay Packers

August 10th, 2017 at 6:23pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Packers have earned postseason berths in eight consecutive seasons, but they haven’t made a Super Bowl appearance since the 2010 campaign. While most NFL clubs would be satisfied with that record of sustained success, anything less than a championship is a disappointment for a team that boasts one of the league’s two best quarterbacks. Green Bay is hardly ever active during the free agent period, but the club’s front office had work to do — especially on the defensive side of the ball — this offseason.

Notable signings:

Nick Perry, LB: Five years, $60MM. $18.5MM guaranteed.
Martellus Bennett, TE: Three years, $21MM. $6.3MM guaranteed.
Lance Kendricks, TE: Two years, $4MM. $1.2MM guaranteed. $1.2MM available via incentives.
Davon House, CB: One year, $2.8MM. $850K guaranteed.
Jayrone Elliott, LB: One year, $1.6MM. $350K guaranteed.
Ricky Jean-Francois, DL: One year, $2MM. $250K guaranteed.
Jahri Evans, G: One year, $2.25MM. $200K guaranteed.
Don Barclay, OL: One year, $1.025MM. $150K guaranteed.
Jordan Tripp, LB: One year, $690K.

The Packers made Nick Perry the 28th overall selection in the 2012 draft, but after he started only 16 total games through his first four seasons in Green Bay, it was fair to label the USC Trojan a bust. He hit the open market in 2016 at the age of 25 after the Packers declined his fifth-year option, but after generating little interest as a free agent, Perry re-signed with Green Bay for just $5MM on a one-year contract.

Things changed in 2016: as Perry explained to Robert Mays of the Ringer, he began “expanding his vision” and acting “more aggressive in his initial movements,” and the results were almost immediate. Perry reached a career-high with 14 starts and played on nearly 60% of the Packers’ defensive snaps. In that time, he registered 11 sacks, 47 quarterback pressures, and 37 defensive stops, with that final total being good for ninth among edge defenders, per Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus. For his efforts, Perry was rewarded with a pact which ranks 10th among pass rushers in annual value and 15th in full guarantees.

While Perry’s return should help the Packers maintain a pass rush that ranked eighth in adjusted sack rate last season, new addition Ricky Jean-Francois will assist in the run game, where Green Bay finished 14th in DVOA. Jean-Francois, 30, is a classic Packers signing: he’s a not-too-flashy veteran who’d been cut by his previous team (the Redskins), meaning his signing won’t affect the 2018 compensatory formula. With Letroy Guion now off the roster, and rookie defensive lineman Montravius Adams expected to miss time, Jean-Francois — whom Green Bay had reportedly been interested in for years — should see ample playing time.

Fixing the front seven wasn’t the main concern for the Packers this offseason, however, as the team’s secondary was its primary area of weakness in 2016. Green Bay ranked 23rd in pass defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and finished 26th, 26th, and 28th, against opposing No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 wide receivers. To address their defensive backfield, the Packers brought back a familiar face, signing Davon House — who spent 2011-14 in Green Bay — to a one-year deal. House lost his starting role with the Jaguars a season ago, but he’s now back with defensive coordinator Dom Capers, under whom House played well during his prior Packers stint. The early reviews on the 28-year-old have been positive, and it won’t be surprising if he’s a starting corner in Week 1.

On offense, Green Bay signed veteran right guard Jahri Evans, who will be entering his 12th NFL season. Now 33 years old, Evans has been extremely durable throughout his career, as he’s missed only seven total games. 2016 will mark his first campaign as a non-Saint, but Evans should immediately slide into the right guard vacancy created by T.J. Lang‘s free agent defection. While Evans isn’t the All Pro lineman he was in the latter portion of the 2000s, he’s still an above-average guard: last year, Evans graded as the league’s No. 33 guard among 75 qualifiers, according to Pro Football Focus.

The Packers double-dipped at tight end, agreeing to multi-year contracts with both Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks. While both are assured of roster spots, Bennett will undoubtedly play more snaps, as he’s arguably the best tight end Aaron Rodgers have ever played with. Catching passes from Tom Brady in 2016, Bennett managed 73 receptions for 701 yards and seven touchdowns while finishing fifth among NFL tight ends in yards per target. Bennett posted those totals while dealing a myriad of injuries, so if he’s able to stay healthy during the upcoming season, he could reach or surpass career-highs in several statistical categories.

Kendricks, meanwhile, will allow the Packers to run two-tight end sets, something they did on only 9% of plays a season ago, per the Football Outsiders Almanac. The 29-year-old Kendricks has reportedly ingratiated himself in Green Bay, as he’s already running ahead of fellow tight end Richard Rodgers in some offensive packages, as Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com writes. Despite playing on one of the league’s worst offense last season, Kendricks posted a career-high 50 receptions, but still earned atrocious blocking grades from PFF.

Notable losses:

Aside from Ty Montgomery, who shifted from wide receiver to running back midway through the 2016 season, every running back who attempted a carry for the Packers last season is now off the roster. James Starks, Christine Michael, and Don Jackson were all cut, while Eddie Lacy was allowed to leave as a free agent. Green Bay reportedly had some interest in retaining Lacy, as he indicated in February that general manager Ted Thompson & Co. had been “very vocal” about bringing Lacy back. However, subsequent reports said the Packers weren’t offering Lacy much money, and he eventually signed with Seattle for one year and $4.25MM. Lacy is only 26 years old, but he hadn’t been effective, healthy, or in shape for the past two seasons, so his loss won’t loom large in 2017.

The Packers probably won’t miss tight end Jared Cook, either, but that’s not because he wasn’t productive a season ago. Despite missing six games, Cook still posted 30 receptions for 377 yards and a score, and he seemed to come into his own near the end of the regular season and into the playoffs. Cook averaged 4 catches and 59 yards in Green Bay’s final three regular season contests, and then totaled 18 receptions, 229 yards, and two scores in the Packers’ three postseason games. It was a solid showing that made Cook the second-best tight end available on the free agent market — but Green Bay added the No. 1 free agent tight end in Martellus Bennett, rendering Cook superfluous.

Although the Packers have allowed starting offensive linemen to walk in consecutive free agent periods, it remains to be seen if that strategy will hurt the club up front. In 2016, Green Bay released All Pro guard Josh Sitton, but subsequently improved along the line, going from 25th to 19th in adjusted line yards and 23rd to 11th in adjusted sack rate. This year, the Packers lost both T.J. Lang and J.C. Tretter, and while Green Bay probably didn’t make much of an effort to retain Tretter given the presence of Corey Linsley at center, the club did attempt to bring back Lang, who narrowed his choices to Detroit, Seattle, and Green Bay before inking a three-year deal with the Lions. The Packers reportedly offered only $21.5MM over three years and $6.5MM guaranteed, while the Lions handed Lang $28.5MM and $19MM in guarantees over the same three-year term.

Green Bay didn’t appear to make a serious effort to re-sign defensive back Micah Hyde, either, and he went on to land a five-year, $30MM pact with the Bills. While Hyde wasn’t necessarily an exceptional player, he was a serviceable jack-of-all-trades who could function at either cornerback or safety. Last year, the 26-year-old Hyde appeared in all 16 games (11 starts) and played roughly 80% of the Packers’ defensive snaps. He also saw action on more than half the club’s special teams plays, so Hyde was a true four-down player. That’s a valuable skill-set, especially given Green Bay’s woes in the secondary, but the Packers didn’t seem interested in keeping Hyde, who graded as the league’s No. 55 corner, per PFF.

While Hyde saw his snap percentage increase in 2016, veteran edge rusher Julius Peppers had had his snap count reduced in each of the past three seasons. In his age-36 campaign, Peppers started 11 games but only played on 58% of the Packers’ defensive snaps (down from 66% in 2015 and 74% in 2015). While his sack total dipped to 7.5, Peppers still finished 29th among 3-4 outside linebackers in PFF’s pass rush productivity metric. Perhaps looking to get younger on the defensive side of the ball, Green Bay wasn’t interested in matching Carolina’s $3.5MM offer to Peppers.

Earlier today, the Packers made the decision to cut ties with defensive tackle Letroy Guion, who started 15 games for the club in 2016. Already set to serve a four-game suspension for violating the NFL’s PED policy, Guion was arrested for DUI in June and may have had extra games tacked onto his ban. Despite his talent at stopping the run, Guion had run afoul of bylaws one too many times, and though Green Bay had looked past his transgressions in the past, the team had seen enough. Because the Packers had already restructured Guion’s contract by delaying his roster bonuses, the club is on the hook for fewer than $200K in dead money.

Trades:

Acquired a 2017 second-round pick (No. 33; CB Kevin King) and a 2017 fourth-round pick (No. 108; LB Vince Biegel) from the Browns in exchange for a 2017 first-round pick (No. 29; TE David Njoku).
Acquired a 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 175; WR DeAngelo Yancey) and a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 238; RB Devante Mays) from the Broncos in exchange for a 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 172; WR Isaiah McKenzie).

Draft picks:

2-33: Kevin King, CB (Washington)
2-61: Josh Jones, S (North Carolina State)
3-93: Montravius Adams, DT (Auburn)
4-108: Vince Biegel, LB (Wisconsin)
4-134: Jamaal Williams, RB (BYU)
5-175: DeAngelo Yancey, WR (Purdue)
5-182: Aaron Jones, RB (UTEP)
6-212: Kofi Amichia, T (USF)
7-238: Devante Mays, RB (Utah State)
7-247: Malachi Dupre, WR (LSU)

While the Packers didn’t necessarily address all their weak areas during the free agent period, they did so in the draft, using half of their 10 selections on the secondary or the backfield. After trading out of the first round, Green Bay picked up Washington corner Kevin King with the first choice of Day 2, and he’s already impressed during camp and is expected to start during his rookie year. Exceptional against long balls, King didn’t give up a single touchdown on 36 deep passes (20+ air yards) over the past three seasons, per Pro Football Focus.

After losing a cavalcade of veteran backs this spring, Green Bay revamped its backfield by selecting thee runners on Days 2 and 3 of the draft: BYU’s Jamaal Williams, UTEP’s Aaron Jones, and Utah State’s Devante Mays. Although Jones is excellent in the passing game, Williams is already making a charge for the Packers’ starting running back job, as Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com recently wrote. Specifically, Williams has been working on blitz pickup, a skill which could allow him to play on passing downs.

Elsewhere, defensive tackle Montravius Adams could miss the start of the season after undergoing foot surgery, and his loss — combined with Letroy Guion‘s release– could force the Packers to lean on inexperienced players or scour the free agent market. Second-rounder Josh Jones will serve as Green Bay’s third safety (and potential future Morgan Burnett replacement), and both he and linebacker Vince Biegel will likely begin their respective careers on special teams duty. Receiver DeAngelo Yancey was considered an undrafted free agent but went in the fifth round, per Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, while fellow wideout Malachi Dupre offers an intriguing blend of size/speed (here’s his MockDraftable profile) and pedigree (he’s a former five-star recruit who ranked as the top wideout in the 2014 high school class).

Extensions and restructures:

Letroy Guion, DT: Restructured contract. Delayed 2017 roster bonuses from March and May to Weeks 9 and 15, respectively. Reduced roster bonuses from $400K each to $300K each. Was subsequently released.

Other:

Exercised fifth-year option for S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix ($5.597MM).
Placed P Jake Schum on injured reserve.
Learned WR Geronimo Allison was suspended one game (substance abuse).
Signed 15 undrafted rookie free agents.

Green Bay’s decision to pick up Ha Ha Clinton-Dix‘s fifth-year option was a complete no-brainer, as the fourth-year pro has quietly become one of the NFL’s most underrated defensive backs. He’s played more than 1,000 snaps in each of the past three campaigns, and last year graded as the league’s No. 22 safety per PFF while being named second-team All Pro. While he’s now under control through 2018, Clinton-Dix is a candidate for an extension in the near future, probably at an annual cost north of $10MM.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Aaron Rodgers, QB: $20,300,000
Clay Matthews, LB: $15,075,000
Randall Cobb, WR: $12,656,250
Jordy Nelson, WR: $11,550,000
Mike Daniels, DL: $10,400,000
Bryan Bulaga, T: $7,850,000
Morgan Burnett, S: $6,981,250
David Bakhtiari, T: $6,171,000
Nick Perry, LB: $5,925,000
Martellus Bennett, TE: $3,850,000

Green Bay’s offseason was — by almost any measure — a success, as the club’s front office re-signed one of the team’s best defensive players, used its top draft pick to add to aid a poor pass defense, and added three young running backs to an RB corps lacking options. With Aaron Rodgers in tow, the NFC North is always an expected prize. A Super Bowl victory is the ultimate end game, and the Packers look to have as good a chance of taking the title belt as any team in the NFC.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Oakland Raiders

August 7th, 2017 at 4:32pm CST by Sam Robinson

After more than a decade as a bottom-tier franchise, the Raiders broke out last season and are suddenly the favorites to win their first AFC West title in 15 years. The team added a few veterans that figure to help an already potent offense and, understandably, devoted its draft to defense.

The Raiders also took care of cornerstones from the much-praised 2014 draft via extensions. However, all of this optimism comes against what could be a strange backdrop — especially for a Super Bowl contender. The Raiders’ decision to move to Las Vegas, eventually, will make Oakland Coliseum games interesting this season.

While the Raiders have yet to prove they can win the big games necessary to contend with the Patriots, they may have as good of a chance as anyone to topple the defending champions based on their roster construction. And they should be poised to be a top-tier AFC contender for the foreseeable future.

Notable signings:

Jared Cook, TE: Two years, $10.6MM. $5MM guaranteed.
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR: Two years, $8.5MM. $5MM guaranteed. $2MM available via incentives.
Marshall Newhouse, T: Two years, $3.5MM. $500K guaranteed.
Jon Condo, LS: One year, minimum salary benefit. $300K guaranteed.
Jelani Jenkins, LB: One year, $1MM. $100K guaranteed.
EJ Manuel, QB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
IK Enemkpali, DE: One year, contract terms unknown.

Somewhat interestingly, Oakland chose to address its stronger unit in free agency while leaving its defense largely unchanged until the draft. Cook and Patterson could bring explosiveness the Raiders have not enjoyed at these positions in many years. While neither is a surefire bet for consistency, both figure to enhance the Raiders’ offensive capabilities.

The Raiders haven’t presented many imposing matchups from the tight end position in the modern era. Cook lost time to injury in 2016, but his late-season re-emergence coincided with some of the best play of Aaron Rodgers‘ career. Oakland acquiring Cook on a $5.3MM-per-year accord looks like a team-friendly deal.

The athletic tight end surpassed 600 yards in three seasons despite having suboptimal quarterbacks throwing to him. As the No. 3 option behind Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, the 30-year-old Cook will be in position to threaten defenses in a way Derek Carr‘s previous tight ends couldn’t. This acquisition will help compensate for the Raiders’ lack of a steady No. 3 wideout.

Oakland’s Patterson signing stands to benefit the offense more so from a field-position standpoint. A two-time All-Pro kick returner with the Vikings, Patterson did not become what Minnesota’s brass envisioned as a receiver. While a potentially dangerous gadget player — especially on an offense possessing the kind of weaponry Oakland’s does — Patterson is no lock to beat out incumbent Seth Roberts for the Raiders’ top slot job. Patterson’s prodigious return acumen will put the Raiders in better position to score, and like Cook, his skill set is one the team hasn’t enjoyed much lately.

Newhouse resides in a strong position to start. A Packers draft choice during Reggie McKenzie‘s Green Bay years, Newhouse has been given plenty of first-string chances — including 20 first-unit games with the Giants from 2015-16 — but has not distinguished himself much and figures to be the clear weak link on the Raiders’ starting line.

The Raiders did not attempt to upgrade much at backup quarterback, with Manuel having been one of the more disappointing first-round passers in years. Carr coming off a broken leg that torpedoed the Silver and Black’s season, the Raiders passing on more proven backups like Chase Daniel, Nick Foles or Ryan Fitzpatrick to sign Manuel for the league minimum is curious. Connor Cook continues to develop but wouldn’t be viewed as an above-average backup if he were to win the job, at least based on his emergency-circumstance work sample last season.

Jenkins would seemingly have the inside track to replace Malcolm Smith on the outside. He signed on a prove-it deal and given the Raiders’ lack of options opposite Bruce Irvin in their base sets, the former Dolphins starter should have a chance to showcase his abilities this season. But Jenkins has trended in the wrong direction since posting a 110-tackle 2014. Pro Football Focus tabbed him as one of the league’s worst linebackers last season. Also considering the Raiders’ gamble on unproven players in the middle, off-ball linebacker profiles as a risk since the team is without both of its nickel-package ‘backers from 2016.

Nate Allen, S
Daren Bates, LB
D.J. Hayden, CB
Andre Holmes, WR
Austin Howard, T: Released
Taiwan Jones, RB: Released
Stacy McGee, DL
Matt McGloin, QB
Latavius Murray, RB
Perry Riley, LB
Mychal Rivera, TE
Malcolm Smith, LB
Brynden Trawick, S
Menelik Watson, T
Dan Williams, DT: Released

Murray’s 12 rushing touchdowns represented the third-most by a Raiders back during a season in franchise history. The Raiders discussed a new deal with Murray, but judging by their refusal to match Murray’s Vikings-friendly agreement, felt like they could replicate the fifth-year player’s production elsewhere. Oakland returns its top four offensive linemen from 2016, and that quartet played a big role in the former sixth-round pick’s success.

The 27-year-old runner presented an interesting case for a re-up, especially at the $5MM-per-year rate (on a team-friendly setup) he agreed to in Minnesota, considering he has only been a starter for two years and has just 543 career carries. But the Raiders went in a different direction.

Neither Hayden nor Smith worked out to the Raiders’ liking. Hayden was one of McKenzie’s biggest missteps while running the Raiders, and Smith — despite being the central figure at non-rush linebacker for the Raiders over the past two seasons — did not impress. The 49ers gave Smith a big raise (five years, $26.5MM) with guarantees that tie him to the team for at least the next two seasons. Nevertheless, the Raiders paid Jenkins far less to replace Smith, who is now lost for the season with a torn pectoral muscle.

T.J. Carrie picked up the slack at nickel after the ineffective and injury-prone Hayden went down midway through last season, and Oakland added 2017 sub-package pieces in the first two rounds of the draft. Oakland did let a promising defender leave without bringing in a replacement, though, when McGee left for Washington. Although McGee missed some time with injuries last season, the defensive tackle was productive. He started nine games after being a rotational presence in his three previous Bay Area seasons.

The Raiders did not address this position in free agency and cut Dan Williams, a quality run-stopper in 2015 but a player whom the team benched last season. Justin Ellis remains as a Williams replacement, but on passing downs, the Raiders could be light on interior pass-rushing ability.

Del Rio specifically addressed this facet of his defense after the season, one that ended with the Raiders ranking 32nd in sacks (25) despite employing defensive player of the year Khalil Mack. But the team lost two players and only used a third-round pick on a replacement. However, the Raiders selected Mario Edwards and Jihad Ward in the second round of the previous two drafts. Oakland is counting on each uncertain commodity in 2017.

Jack Del Rio said Newhouse had a leg up on Howard in the right tackle competition over the summer, and the Raiders subsequently released Howard. The Raiders’ right tackle the past two seasons, Howard was coming off shoulder surgery. He played well at right tackle in 2015, after a down ’14 at guard, but was slowed by injuries last season. The 30-year-old’s release saddles the Raiders with $1.5MM in 2017 dead money, although that’s the only dead-money figure on the Raiders’ ’17 payroll.

Trades:

Acquired RB Marshawn Lynch and a 2018 sixth-round pick from the Seahawks in exchange for a 2018 fifth-round pick.
Acquired a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 221; DB Shalom Luani) and a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 231; T Jylan Ware) from the Cardinals in exchange for a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 208; S Johnathan Ford).

After a lengthy process, the Raiders pulled the trigger on a trade for Lynch. They are not paying him what the Seahawks did. Lynch pocketed more than $12MM in 2015 as part of a Seahawks extension. His new contract is more in line with the veteran running back market: two years, $9MM, $2.35MM guaranteed. Nothing is guaranteed beyond this season. The Raiders could save $6MM in 2018 by cutting Lynch, who is almost certainly not going to be part of his hometown franchise’s move to Las Vegas.

The Raiders will upgrade in raw talent from Murray to Lynch, who stampeded to four straight Pro Bowls in Seattle. However, it’s uncertain what kind of form the 31-year-old bruiser will be in after a year off and more than 2 1/2 years removed from his most recent healthy season. Lynch missed nine games in 2015 and saw Thomas Rawls look far better than he did for the Hawks that season, with the cornerstone ball-carrier averaging just 3.8 yards per carry.

Oakland still has multipurpose-type backs in DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard — each of whom averaged more than five yards per handoff as rookies — so they could still form a committee around Lynch as they did with Murray. Lynch, though, brings the kind of short-yardage punch the younger backs don’t, and behind a stacked Raiders interior offensive line, the starter should be a potent weapon around the goal line.

Draft picks:

1-24: Gareon Conley, CB (Ohio State)
2-56: Obi Melifonwu, S (UConn)
3-88: Eddie Vanderdoes, DT (UCLA)
4-129: David Sharpe, OL (Florida)
5-168: Marquel Lee, LB (Wake Forest)
7-221: Shalom Luani, DB (Washington State)
7-231: Jylan Ware, T (Alabama State)
7-242: Elijah Hood, RB (North Carolina)
7-244: Treyvon Hester, DT (Toledo)

Expected to go in the top half of the first round prior to a sexual assault allegation that surfaced during draft month, Conley received a life raft from the Raiders. And after it was announced charges won’t come the cornerback’s way in connection with the aforementioned allegation at a Cleveland hotel, the Raiders figure to have the full services of a talent that otherwise would not have been available to them. Conley will provide the Raiders with vital depth and supply a young cornerback prospect to a team in need of them.

Conley could push Sean Smith and David Amerson for time at some point. Neither returning starter has any guaranteed money owed to them beyond 2017, and Smith is already oddly running with the second team in camp. So, this pick could put a cornerback contingent — one that helped permit an NFL-worst 61 completions of at least 20 yards last season — on notice.

Melifonwu also has veterans in front of him, with the Raiders having Reggie Nelson and Karl Joseph back, but the UConn product could be tabbed for starting duty as soon as next season. Nelson’s two-year contract expires after this his age-34 season. A Combine freak who worked out as a corner for some teams during the pre-draft process, Melifonwu is an old-school Raiders selection hearkening back to the Al Davis speed-obsessed era. The 6-4 talent could profile as a sub-package cog early; the Raiders did not have much safety depth coming into the draft and they are currently without Keith McGill due to a fractured foot.

Conley and Melifonwu inject some high-end athleticism and depth to a Raiders secondary that didn’t have many options for years.

The Raiders selected an interior defender on Day 2 of the draft for a third straight year. A UCLA talent, Vanderdoes did not boast impact stats during his four-year career (4.0 sacks, 13.5 tackles for loss) but does have a 3-4 end body type (6-4, 305 pounds) for a team that hired John Pagano — the Chargers’ DC who utilized that front during his San Diego stay. Vanderdoes figures to add to a largely unproven rotation.

Lee has an opportunity for early playing time despite being selected on Day 3. The former Demon Deacons tackler is the latest of McKenzie’s Day 3 linebacker picks. The GM is emulating former boss Ted Thompson by not over-investing in non-rush linebackers. Plenty of late-round and UDFA players populate this position group. Lee’s already seeing first-team reps and could be the latest young talent installed there.

Extensions and restructures:

Derek Carr, QB: Extended through 2022. Five years, $125.05MM. $40MM guaranteed.
Gabe Jackson, G: Extended through 2022. Five years, $56MM. $26MM guaranteed (unknown if figure is full guarantee).
Marshawn Lynch, RB: Agreed to new contract following trade. Two years, $9MM. $2.35MM guaranteed. $5.9MM available via incentives.
Lee Smith, TE: Accepted pay cut. Created $750K in cap space by reducing 2017 base salary of $1MM to $1MM base salary and $1MM roster bonus.

The late-June week that brought extensions for Carr and Jackson represented a historic span for the Silver and Black, whose previous payroll became dominated by outside hires. The Raiders and these two cornerstones reaching extension agreements doubles as a pivotal point in the franchise’s timeline. Many years have passed since the team had young talents of this caliber willing to make commitments like this.

The first young, franchise-level quarterback that’s ended up signing a Raiders extension in decades, Carr admitted he left money on the table to help his teammates — mentioning Jackson, Mack and Amari Cooper, who becomes extension-eligible next year — remain with the franchise. Carr stands to bring in more money once the Raiders move to Las Vegas, since Nevada does not have a state income tax. But given the Raiders’ struggles at quarterback post-Rich Gannon, they were probably all too happy to pay the 26-year-old Pro Bowler. The highest of this deal’s cap figures comes at $25MM in 2018. The Raiders have been big on frontloading deals under McKenzie, and Carr’s did not deviate from the blueprint.

Although he was not one of the three Raiders offensive linemen selected for the most recent Pro Bowl, Jackson has continually impressed. He remained a stalwart interior blocker after moving from left to right guard last season. His extension locks in the Raiders’ formidable interior O-line core through 2019. Jackson’s extension elevates his 2017 cap number to $10.47MM, and following a $10.5MM figure next year, the frontloaded deal does not have an eight-figure cap number attached to it. All of the guaranteed money in Jackson’s accord comes in 2017 and ’18. Kelechi Osemele and Rodney Hudson‘s UFA contracts were structured the same way.

Other:

Learned NFL owners approved plan to relocated to Las Vegas.
Promoted Todd Downing to offensive coordinator to replace Bill Musgrave.
Hired former Chargers DC John Pagano as assistant head coach/defense.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for DE Khalil Mack ($13.846MM).
Signed 17 undrafted rookie free agents.
Donald Penn is holding out in hopes of a reworked contract

The elephant in the room could double as a dark cloud over an otherwise promising Raiders season. While the team thrived in 2016 as a Vegas prospect loomed, now that it’s official, the Oakland atmosphere could be strange. The Raiders have become the only NFL franchise that’s agreed to ditch its original market twice, and their lame-duck experiment has the league discussing alternative options if 2017 goes poorly. The Nevada venture marks a controversial move, ditching one of the league’s most identifiable local fanbases for an unknown market. But the record $750MM in public money secured made 31 owners view this opportunity as too good to bypass.

The Raiders will also become a rare contending team that’s agreed to leave its market, making for a fascinating backdrop in a season where the franchise figures to deploy a Super Bowl contender. No post-AFL-NFL merger departure agreement has occurred with a city’s team coming off a playoff berth until the Raiders’ decision. Additionally, the last time a team planned on staying in its previous city for multiple years while a stadium was being built elsewhere came when the Houston Oilers attempted to do so. They ended up leaving Houston for Tennessee after one season, an ugly 1996 campaign, and playing the following two slates in a college stadium while the current Titans venue was constructed.

For a team that subjected its local fanbase to more than a decade of futility only to field a contender Oakland at the 11th hour, it could bring some complications for said championship push.

The Raiders made a curious move in jettisoning the coordinator who oversaw a No. 6 ranking and retaining one who piloted a defense to a No. 26 finish for a second straight season. But other teams expressed interest in hiring Downing as OC, so the Raiders promoted the 37-year-old position coach. Musgrave caught on with the Broncos as QBs coach but once again spent two seasons as OC for a Del Rio-coached team. He was not retained after two Jaguars seasons during the 2000s. Pagano will add another key voice to a team that already has a defensive-minded head coach, although it might cut into Ken Norton Jr.‘s authority to some degree.

Mack was one of a few easy fifth-year decisions a front office had to make involving a 2014 draftee. While the reigning defensive player of the year having to wait behind Jackson for an extension makes for strange optics, other teams have not committed to their 2014 first-round picks yet either. Nevertheless, Mack is on one of the most franchise-friendly agreements in football. He stands to make $5.94MM this season and $13.84MM in 2018.

Jackson’s extension also left Penn as the fourth-highest-paid Raiders lineman despite having made the most Pro Bowls of anyone on the unit. Set to make $5.8MM in base salary this season, Penn wants top-10 left tackle money. The two-year, $14MM deal has him well off that pace — especially given how much certain teams committed to lesser tackles in free agency. The Raiders do not have a replacement close to Penn’s caliber, so this is an interesting tactic from the 11th-year blocker. McKenzie might not be keen on redoing a two-year contract, but the team’s status as a Super Bowl contender and the gulf between Penn and the rest of Oakland’s tackle contingent could make the GM pay up to satisfy his disgruntled employee.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Derek Carr, QB: $15.731,691
Kelechi Osemele, G: $13,500,000
Gabe Jackson, G: $10,647,844
Sean Smith, CB: $9,500,000
David Amerson, CB: $8,500,000
Donald Penn, T: $7,150,000
Michael Crabtree, WR: $7,000,000
Bruce Irvin, LB: $7,000,000
Rodney Hudson, C: $6,950,000
Austin Howard, T: $6,400,000

Oakland has its best roster in place since its 2002 AFC championship campaign, but the team must navigate a tough AFC West and prove it can beat contenders. The Silver and Black went 2-5 against winning teams last season, although two of those losses came without Carr. But a Chiefs team in apparent transition and a Broncos outfit that may be constrained by a lower-level offense could set the Raiders up for a playoff home game.

While that would certainly stand to be awkward considering the Vegas decision, the Raiders have a chance at a special season. Their Super Bowl window appears to be opening.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images and via Pro Football Rumors on Instagram.

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PFR Originals: 7/30/17 – 8/6/17

August 6th, 2017 at 2:14pm CST by Sam Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

The 2017 regular season is less than two months away. PFR has begun its annual Offseason In Review series, assessing the major signings, departures, trades, and other notable events for each of the 32 NFL clubs. We covered the Washington Redskins this week.
There have been some high-profile young quarterbacks on the UFA market for some time now, and PFR’s Zach Links asked readers which was going to sign first. Colin Kaepernick won a competitive race. However, Ryan Tannehill‘s sudden injury prompted the Dolphins to go with a wild-card entrant. Adam Gase lured Jay Cutler out of retirement.

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Offseason In Review: Washington Redskins

August 1st, 2017 at 8:10pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Redskins narrowly missed earning a second consecutive postseason appearance in 2017, as a tie with the Bengals in London ended up costing Washington another playoff berth. That frustration seemed minor compared to the upheaval that began on the first day of free agency, when the Redskins fired general manager Scot McCloughan and began a summer-long saga of unfruitful negotiations with quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Notable signings:

Kirk Cousins, QB: One year, $23.944MM. Fully guaranteed. Signed franchise tag.
Vernon Davis, TE: Three years, $15MM. $7.5MM guaranteed.
Terrell McClain, DL: Four years, $21MM. $7.25MM guaranteed.
Stacy McGee, DL: Five years, $25MM. $6.25MM guaranteed.
D.J. Swearinger, S: Three years, $13.5MM. $6MM guaranteed.
Terrelle Pryor, WR: One year, $6MM. Fully guaranteed.
Zach Brown, LB: One year, $2.3MM. $700K guaranteed. $2.3MM available via incentives.
Ziggy Hood, DL: Two years, $2.7MM. $300K guaranteed.
Chris Carter, LB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
Brian Quick, WR: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
Chris Thompson, RB: One year, $2.746MM. Signed second-round RFA tender.
Will Compton, LB: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.

Kirk Cousins has played the free agent game perfectly: assigned the franchise tag for two consecutive seasons, Cousins has now raked in nearly $44MM from 2016-17, and will earn another ~$34.48MM if the Redskins use the franchise tender again in 2018. Exerting all his leverage, Cousins rejected an offer from Washington that the team claims included $53MM in full guarantees, noting that he wanted more time to evaluate an organization that has seen considerable turnover both on the field and in the front office.

While Cousins clearly isn’t the league’s best quarterback, he’s going to be paid like it next season, either through another franchise tag, an extension with the Redskins, or a free agent deal with another club. Over the past two seasons, Cousins has completed 68.3% of his passes while averaging more than 4,500 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. That level of production will earn a quarterback a massive contract on the open market — especially given that Cousins’ former offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, is now the head coach of a quarterback-needy 49ers club — and Cousins will easily clear the $27MM per year mark if he reaches unfettered free agency.

Cousins will be throwing to a new group of wideouts that includes former Brown Terrelle Pryor, whom the Redskins landed on one of the best value free agent signings of 2017. Pryor is only 28 years old, and posted 77 receptions, 1,007 yards and four touchdowns in his first season as a wide receiver. Given that he was a quarterback until 2016, many clubs seemed reticent to invest in Pryor despite his excellent statistics, but Washington took the plunge. It’s a worthwhile risk, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Redskins attempt to extend Pryor in-season if he continues his run of receiving success.

While receiver Brian Quick may not even make Washington’s final roster, veteran tight end Vernon Davis could play a key role for the club after re-signing on a three-year pact. Starting tight end Jordan Reed has had difficulty staying healthy during his four-year career (four missed games last season), and has already been placed on active/PUP with a toe issue. Davis, who looked finished in Denver two years ago, put up 44 receptions for more than 500 yards in his first season as a Redskin. While he still can’t block (bottom-10 among tight ends in the run game, per Pro Football Focus), Davis is a serviceable starter if Reed is sidelined again.

On defense, the Redskins sought to beef up a defensive line that ranked just 27th against the run, according to Football Outsiders‘ adjusted line yards metric. While Stacy McGee and Terrell McClain should do just that along Washington’s front, both signed contracts that can be escaped relatively easily. McClain, notably, is two years older than McGee, but received a larger guarantee, a larger signing bonus, and a longer contract than the former Raider. While both interior defenders will see time up front on a rotational basis, both players could see their deals effectively turn into effective one-year pacts.

At the second level, Washington made an addition that rivals its signing of Pryor in terms of value, inking linebacker Zach Brown to a one-year deal. Finally utilizing the speed and athleticism that made him a second-round pick in 2012, Brown played 91.2% of Buffalo’s defensive snaps a year ago while posting 149 tackles, four sacks, and one interception. That performance earned Brown second-team All Pro honors, but his market never developed, as interest from the Raiders, Dolphins, Colts, and incumbent Bills never materialized into a deal. Landing a linebacker of Brown’s caliber for just $2.3MM is an absolute steal.

Like Brown, safety D.J. Swearinger is a former second-round draft choice who never put it all together until 2016, when he started 12 games for Arizona and graded as the NFL’s No. 9 safety, per PFF. Swearinger, who is already drawing praise for his work in Washington, is expected to line up next to Su’a Cravens (yet another ex-second-rounder) in the Redskins’ secondary. The Redskins ranked 25th in DVOA against tight ends last season, so the club is hoping Swearinger can help cover the middle of the field.

Chris Baker, DL
Pierre Garcon, WR
Terence Garvin, LB
Kedric Golston, DL
Duke Ihenacho, S
DeSean Jackson, WR
Ricky Jean-Francois, DL: Released
Cullen Jenkins, DL
John Sullivan, C
Greg Toler, CB
Donte Whitner, S

If Kirk Cousins struggles in 2017 and doesn’t land a gargantuan contract next spring, he may look back at the Redskins’ decision to let his top two receiving options — DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon — leave via free agency. That’s not to say either decision was incorrect, as both Jackson and Garcon are on the wrong side of 30 and received at least $17MM in full guarantees. But Washington is certainly taking a leap of faith by not re-signing Jackson or Garcon, who together accounted for roughly 35% of Cousins’ 2016 targets.

The loss of Jackson will likely hurt the Redskins’ offense more than Garcon, as Jackson’s deep speed — last season, he led the league in yards per reception for the third time in his career — allowed Cousins to work in the middle of the field with passes to tight end Jordan Reed and slot receiver Jamison Crowder. It’s an open question as to whether free agent addition Terrelle Pryor or 2016 first-round pick Josh Doctson (who essentially redshirted during his rookie campaign) can provide that sort of deep-ball threat.

The rest of Washington’s notable losses came on the defensive side of the ball, starting with three defections along the defensive interior. Chris Baker‘s absence will hurt the most, as the 29-year-old posted 10.5 sacks over the past two seasons and graded as the NFL’s No. 18 defensive tackle in 2016, per PFF. The Redskins anonymously questioned Baker’s worth ethic on the way out the door, but he was a productive player for Washington, especially against the run. Ricky Jean-Francois (released) and Cullen Jenkins (free agent) are also gone, but neither played more than 40% of the Redskins’ defensive snaps last season, and have been replaced by arguably better players.

Similarly, several members of Washington’s secondary have departed but been exchanged for more productive options. Safeties Duke Ihenacho and Donte Whitner both played on at least 40% of the club’s snaps in 2016, but neither was very effective. Ihenacho graded as a bottom-10 defensive back, per PFF, while Whitner has yet to find a new NFL home. With D.J. Swearinger now in tow, and Su’a Cravens expected to play a larger role, Ihenacho and Whitner won’t be missed.

Trades:

Acquired a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 199; C Chase Roullier) and a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 230; S Josh Harvey-Clemons) from the Vikings in exchange for a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 201; TE Bucky Hodges) and a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 220; DE Ifeadi Odenigbo).

Draft picks:

1-17: Jonathan Allen, DL (Alabama)
2-49: Ryan Anderson, LB (Alabama)
3-81: Fabian Moreau, CB (UCLA)
4-114: Samaje Perine, RB (Oklahoma)
4-123: Montae Nicholson, S (Michigan State)
5-154: Jeremy Sprinkle, TE (Arkansas)
6-199: Chase Roullier, C (Wyoming)
6-209: Robert Davis, WR (Georgia State)
7-230: Josh Harvey-Clemons, S (Louisville)
7-235: Joshua Holsey, S (Auburn)

In the months leading up to the draft, Jonathan Allen was thought to be a surefire top-five selection, but a shoulder issue apparently worried some clubs. The Redskins weren’t scared off by the injury, as they considered trading up to acquire Allen on draft day. Instead, the Alabama product — who led all interior linemen with 67 pressures last season, according to Pro Football Focus — fell to pick No. 17, and Washington landed a player who could potentially start on its defensive line for the next decade.

The Redskins continued to add pieces to their defense on Day 2, including linebacker Ryan Anderson, who boasts a “disciplined, assignment-based approach” that will win over defensive coordinators, per Lance Zierlein on NFL.com, and cornerback Fabian Moreau, who posted the second-highest SPARQ score among draft-eligible corners. Like Allen, Moreau slid in the draft based on injury, as he underwent pectoral surgery in March. Neither Anderson nor Moreau figures to start immediately, but both could be high-impact players by their second or third season in the nation’s capital.

In the fourth round, Washington targeted the offensive side of the ball, picking up a bowling ball of a running back in Oklahoma’s Samaje Perine. At 5’10”, 233 pounds, Perine is a “thick, compact, bruising runner with good feet,” says Matt Miller of Bleacher Report, who also notes the heavy toll placed upon Perine’s legs at the collegiate level. Incumbent starter Rob Kelley shouldn’t be promised anything after averaging 4.2 yards per carry last year (and posting sub-par athletic testing numbers prior to the 2016 draft), and John Keim of ESPN.com has already projected Perine to receiver the lion’s share of the carries in 2017.

Extensions and restructures:

Morgan Moses, T: Extended through 2022. Five years, $38.25MM. $14.047MM guaranteed.
DeAngelo Hall, S: Accepted pay cut. Reduced 2017 base salary from $4.25MM to $2.3MM. $250K available via incentives.

Other:

Fired general manager Scot McCloughan.
Extended head coach Jay Gruden through 2020.
Promoted Matt Cavanaugh to offensive coordinator to replace Sean McVay.
Promoted Greg Manusky to defensive coordinator to replace Joe Barry.
Learned LB Trent Murphy would be suspended four games (PEDs).
Signed eight undrafted rookie free agents.

Following the firing of ex-general manager Scot McCloughan on the first day of the free agent period, Washington’s front office is in perhaps the most precarious position of any personnel team in the league. Several executives, including Doug Williams and Eric Schaffer, have been handed promotions, but team president Bruce Allen is essentially still running the show. Allen, who’s shown no ability to manage a front office in his past stops, essentially worked off McCloughan’s draft and free agent board during the spring, so the real test for the new staff will be the 2018 offseason, when McCloughan’s hints are no longer available.

The turmoil in the Redskins’ front office is in contrast to the surprising stability exhibited on the field, where the club extended head coach Jay Gruden and found internal replacements for both of its departed coordinators. If Gruden sticks it out through the end of his contract in 2020, he’ll be the longest tenured Washington coach since Joe Gibbs‘ first stint in DC. Promoting Greg Manusky to defensive coordinator was a curious choice, however, as he was part of the staff that led the Redskins to a 25th-place DVOA ranking.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Kirk Cousins, QB: $23,943,600
Josh Norman, CB: $20,000,000
Trent Williams, T: $15,137,500
Ryan Kerrigan, LB: $11,700,000
Terrelle Pryor, WR: $6,000,000
Brandon Scherff, G: $5,786,083
Jordan Reed, TE: $5,737,500
Shawn Lauvao, G: $5,000,000
Terrell McClain, DL: $3,734,375
Morgan Moses, T: $3,621,394

The NFC East figures to be one of the more competitive divisions in the NFL next season, as Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders indicates the NFC East is one of only two divisions where every club is projected to win at least seven games. Washington figures to be in the thick of things thanks to an excellent offense and an improving defense, but whether the Redskins can earn another playoff appearance in 2017 is anyone’s guess.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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