It’s been two weeks since Terry McLaurin publicly revealed his trade request, and a resolution doesn’t appear to be in sight. Thanks to ESPN’s John Keim, we’re starting to get more insight into how the Commanders are approaching negotiations…and how they run counter to their star wide receiver’s financial desires.
[RELATED: Commanders’ Terry McLaurin Requests Trade]
As we’ve assumed all along, the Commanders are wary of giving McLaurin a lucrative contract that would extend well into the player’s 30s. As Keim notes, the Commanders “rely heavily on analytics,” and those numbers aren’t particularly kind to receivers on the wrong side of 30. They may be onto something. Per ESPN Research, over the past five years, only three receivers 31 years or older have played at least 10 games and averaged 70-plus receiving yards per game (that number jumps to six players if you adjust for 60-plus receiving yards).
Further, the team can simply point to the NFL landscape, as other teams are also clearly wary of paying aging wideouts. Among the 24 active wide receivers who are attached to the most guaranteed money, only Tyreek Hill was older than 30 when the deal was signed. McLaurin has continually pointed to his lack of mileage despite his age; he barely played during his first two years at Ohio State, meaning he may not have the same wear and tear as similar players his age.
McLaurin is also naturally pointing to the stat sheet, as the receiver has continually produced despite uncertain QB play, uncertain ownership, and a handful of different coaching staffs. Per Keim, the Commanders don’t want to pay McLaurin based on his past performance, with the front office preferring to shape any future contracts based on his projections for age-31-plus seasons. The organization also doesn’t want to set a new precedent by paying McLaurin, as it could convince future veterans to push for lucrative deals in their 30s.
While McLaurin has taken the drastic measure of requesting a trade out of Washington, the organization is still convinced they have leverage in this showdown. After all, the player is still under contract for the 2025 campaign, meaning McLaurin will have to forfeit game checks if he sits out games. The team could even choose to slap him with the franchise tag next offseason (which could come in north of $30MM), meaning they’re in full control of the player’s fate moving forward.
The team is also skeptical that another suitor is going to willingly pay McLaurin the type of money he’s seeking. Per Keim, there’s doubts around the league about whether another team would be willing to meet the receiver’s demands. Even if a clear suitor does emerge, Keim makes it clear that Washington’s front office won’t give the star away without receiving a haul.
We heard recently that McLaurin wasn’t necessarily seeking a deal that matched fellow 2019 draftee D.K. Metcalf‘s deal with the Steelers. However, Keim says Metcalf’s contract has generally served as a guide for McLaurin, although it’s uncertain whether the Commanders wideout is looking to match the AAV ($33MM) or total guarantees ($60MM).
Ultimately, one source believes the Commanders may agree to pay McLaurin a contract that will pay $28MM per year. Of course, it’s uncertain if the player would even accept that offer. If that hypothetical maximum offer doesn’t end in a signing, a divorce may be the logical next step.
He dropped his trade request? So he’s no longer demanding a trade?
Drop as in reveal, but I changed the wording to be more clear.
Good to go.
They traded multiple picks for Lattimore and his contract based on past performance, but won’t just pay the most consistent member of the organization who’s also the best player on the team other than Daniels.
I think that all contracts reflect past performance and are using the past performance to project future production. That is to say, there is no reason to assume that an unproductive player will suddenly become productive if you pay them more. The other factors are the value of past contracts for players of your age at your position, and how easily can that production be replaced in free agency and the draft. This is part of the NFL, and will be, so long as there are “contracts” that are not guaranteed. Teams will cut players they don’t want to pay before their contract is up and players will ask for more money when they feel like they can. I don’t think there is a right or wrong side to this. I hope he stays because Daniels is electric, and it would be better for the NFL if he has weapons that are also electric!
Then trade him. Go see how far you’ll get with declining Deebo Samuel as your number one.
He’s still 29 and had limited use in college and his first season was age 24. He only has 6 years in the league. I can see a 3 year deal.
Smart, Father Time is undefeated.
Trade him then
It’s rather comical to have the oldest roster in the league and then say you’re concerned about paying veterans 🙂
I’m sure they don’t want to… but that’s how contracts work. What an absolute nonsense position for them to take. You think this organization has turned a corner and then this comes out. 3 or 4 years at market value.
How do you pay someone based on their future performance 😂
That’s how analytics works, project likely outcome and base on that. Fairly simple concept.
They caved on their name. Clearly this is a shiz organization. However, following analytics is a hard thing to argue. Truth hurts.