Late-December/early-January football offers myriad playoff scenarios, but incentives also play a key part during this sector of the NFL season. Here are a handful of incentive storylines to follow as the regular season winds down:
- Sam Darnold, QB (Seahawks). As we touched on in March, Darnold’s three-year, $100.5MM deal includes $5MM per year in incentives. He can earn $500K apiece by eclipsing a 100.0 passer rating, throwing at least 28 TD passes and finishing with a completion rate higher than 67.5%. Darnold sits on 25 TD passes and carries a 67.2% completion rate into Week 18. The nomadic QB also holds a 99.2 rating entering the 49ers matchup, putting $1.5MM in play. Darnold also earned $500K by guiding the Seahawks to the playoffs, ESPN.com’s Marc Raimondi notes. While no incentive exists for a Seattle wild-card win, the free agent signing would collect $1MM for a divisional-round win, $1.5MM for reaching Super Bowl LX and $2.5MM for winning it.
- Baker Mayfield, QB (Buccaneers). Mayfield’s three-year, $100MM deal includes a $2.5MM incentive package that can fully or partially trigger depending on the QB’s finishes in five statistical categories. Mayfield can earn $500K apiece if he finishes in the top 10 NFL QBs or top five among NFC arms in passer rating, TD passes, yards, completion percentage and yards per attempt, Ramondi adds. Mayfield sits 12th in yards (sixth NFC) and 11th in TDs (fifth NFC) but outside the top 17 in the other three categories, likely putting only $1MM in play.
- Bradley Chubb, OLB (Dolphins). Chubb can do quite well by season’s end. After agreeing to an offseason rework, the injury-prone edge rusher is set to cash in based on playing time escalators. Sitting at 72% playing time, Chubb is on track to earn more than $3.1MM, which he will do by finishing the season north of 70%, per Raimondi. The former top-five pick has already cashed in a $1.23MM sack incentive by reaching six; he can earn another $900K with eight. Chubb sits at 6.5 through 16 games.
- Keenan Allen, WR (Chargers). Returning to the Chargers on a one-year, $3MM contract, Allen has earned $1MM in reception incentives already, sitting at 73. He is at $750K on his receiving yardage incentives, per Raimondi. The two-stint Charger also has banked $750K by reaching 60 catches and the Bolts qualifying for the playoffs.
- Morgan Moses, RT (Patriots). Moses’ three-year, $24MM deal included a $1.5MM bump for playing 90% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps, ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweets. Moses, who has not missed a game in his 12th season, locked that in during the Pats’ Week 17 win over the Jets. This is good news for the Jets, who let Moses walk in free agency. This is expected to bump the value of the 2026 compensatory pick tied to his exit from the seventh round to the fifth, OverTheCap’s Nick Korte notes.
- Joey Bosa, DE (Bills). Avoiding injuries for the most part this season, Bosa has five sacks on his one-year, $12.61MM Bills deal. If he nets No. 6 in Week 18, the 10th-year veteran will earn an additional $250K, per Raimondi. Bosa (15 games played — his most since 2019) is also on track to collect an additional $750K for playing at least 55% of the Bills’ defensive snaps.
- Deebo Samuel, WR (Commanders). Washington did not extend Samuel upon acquiring him via trade, but his deal does include a number of incentives. Already netting $250K in receiving yardage bonuses, Samuel (707 yards) can bump that to $450K if he reaches 800 yards. Samuel already banked $450K by reaching 70 receptions, Raimondi adds.
- Three NFC defenders earned six-figure bumps recently. Cameron Jordan (Saints) collected a $600K bonus by reaching nine sacks, per ESPN.com’s Katherine Terrell. The 15th-year defensive end, who has 9.5 sacks in a bounce-back year, agreed to a reworked contract in March. Fellow veteran D-end DeMarcus Lawrence earned an additional $500K by being selected to the Pro Bowl in his first Seahawks slate, according to Spotrac. Panthers cornerback Mike Jackson earned $500K for intercepting a fourth pass this season, ESPN’s Field Yates adds.
Vikings could have kept Darnold and traded McCarthy for a haul when he still had mysterious prospect sheen on him.
They would have been stacked for the next half decade or more.
Years ago Dave Dameshek did a very entertaining feature for the NFL entitled “N if L”. He would have a field day with some of the moves teams have done recently. They should really consider reprising that series…it was great.