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Assessing Where QB Market Stands

February 27th, 2025 at 10:19pm CST by Sam Robinson

This year’s veteran quarterback market consists of at least one Hall of Famer, possibly two. Although Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are no longer in their primes, each is expected to play in 2025. Kirk Cousins is also lingering as a potential option.

Sam Darnold, however, headlines this free agent class — one that features four of the five QBs chosen in the 2021 first round. Only Justin Fields qualifies as a starter-level option from that quintet, as Mac Jones, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance will not garner attention on that level this year. Daniel Jones also hovers as an interesting option, despite his rough 2023 and ’24 showings.

The trade market, which technically includes Cousins, also has introduced a big name. The Rams continue to dangle Matthew Stafford. Even if this is merely to pinpoint his value as the sides haggle over a new contract, a handful of teams — chiefly the Raiders and Giants — have entered the fray for the former Super Bowl winner. Here is where these markets stand at the Combine:

Making sense of Stafford saga

It has now been five days since it became known the Rams were letting Matthew Stafford speak with other teams. Rather than seeking another reworking, Stafford is gunning for a new contract — and to become the oldest member of the $50MM-AAV club since Rodgers, who was there for a season. No one tied to a long-term deal averaging north of $50MM is older than 31; Stafford will play an age-37 season in 2025.

He is partially at fault for this value discrepancy. After all, Stafford had left money on the table during his initial Rams negotiations in an effort to help the team around him. That led to Stafford signing for four years and $160MM; that matched the Dak Prescott terms — though with less player-friendly language — at the time. It now sits 15th at the position..

The Browns and Steelers were loosely tied to Stafford, but the Giants and Raiders have stepped to the forefront. It would make more sense, were Stafford angling to jump to a roster that could form a contender, for him to consider the AFC North teams. But it is not known if they made serious pushes. As it stands, Giants and Raiders teams respectively coming off 3-14 and 4-13 seasons are in pursuit. The Giants have met with Stafford’s camp and asked about the QB before last year’s deadline, as their Jones plan was imploding. But the Silver and Black have done far more to indicate they are serious.

No matter how it happened, Stafford and new Raiders power broker Tom Brady met in Montana to discuss a potential fit. The Raiders have since come close on contract parameters, though it is not believed trade terms are worked out. Neither the Giants nor Raiders are open to meeting the Rams’ first-rounder asking price, as the teams hold Nos. 3 and 6. A high second-rounder headlining the package, or a potential future first, would make more sense.

Like the 49ers did with Brandon Aiyuk, the Rams still have the final say. They can opt to pay Stafford his modest roster bonus ($4MM) and work out a deal to ensure continuity for a team that has mounted stiff playoff challenges over the past two years. (As of now, however, L.A. is balking at a $50MM-per-year number.) Otherwise, the Rams risk falling backward without a quarterback plan.

Rodgers-Rams link emerges; who else makes sense for 20-year vet?

If the Rams truly go to the edge with Stafford, a report has emerged depicting Rodgers as an interested observer. Rodgers has been tied to wanting to join the Rams and to take Davante Adams with him once again. Adams was mentioned as a potential Rams target before Rodgers was thrown into the mix. It would be interesting to see the Rams try a formula that did not work for the Jets, but Rodgers — albeit at 41 — would be a capable option for far less than Stafford.

Our late-December poll about Rodgers fits did not place the Steelers as a realistic destination. Ditto the Browns. Both teams would benefit from a high-profile placeholder, though the four-time MVP’s current form may not be worth the baggage that also now comes with him.

While the Jets may not have issued an ultimatum regarding Rodgers’ Pat McAfee Show appearances, they are believed to have discussed the matter — as Gang Green’s new regime quickly decided to move on. A Jets team that lacks a surefire route to acquiring a more talented QB in 2025 announcing it would move on from Rodgers so soon is rather telling.

The Giants have not been tied to Rodgers, despite their Stafford pursuit and the team having no QBs contracted presently. If the Titans were to trade down from No. 1 overall, a veteran bridge would be logical as well. Thus far, however, Rodgers connections beyond the Rams have not surfaced.

Steelers to make internal call?

Thus far, the Steelers have been tied to a Wilson-or-Fields decision. The team has entered talks with both players, as the longstanding organizational policy prevents in-season negotiations. Early rumors pointed to Fields having a better chance to come back than Wilson, and the fifth-year veteran is interested in staying — should he receive a legitimate chance to start. Considering the raise the Steelers would need to authorize to either keep Fields off the open market or outbid other curious teams, it would stand to reason any arrangement in which Fields stays in Pittsburgh would come with a good chance to start.

Fields has long believed to have support in the Steelers’ building, dating back to when he closed the gap on Wilson — long positioned as the favorite for the job during the 2024 offseason — leading to a late Mike Tomlin decision. Although Fields did not show much improvement from his Bears form as a passer while filling in for Wilson, the Tomlin call to give the veteran the job back was not unanimous.

After Wilson struggled down the stretch (albeit with a limited receiving corps), suddenly he has not been as closely linked to the Steelers (though, he has repeatedly stated he wants to stay). Wilson, 36, would be competing with Rodgers (and perhaps Cousins) as a high-profile stopgap were the Steelers to work out something with Fields.

The Giants have been loosely tied to Wilson, whom they hosted on a short visit last year. That could be a team to monitor if this Steelers situation breaks Fields’ way, but a Pete Carroll reunion in Vegas — if Stafford and/or the Rams balk about a divorce — has been floated as a possibility.

Will Falcons really keep Cousins as backup?

Terry Fontenot has twice indicated the Falcons are fine keeping Cousins as a backup. He would be the most expensive backup in NFL history, being on a four-year deal worth $180MM. That contract came with $90MM at signing, covering Cousins’ 2025 salary. The Falcons would also owe him $10MM more, in the form of a 2026 roster bonus that vests a year out, if he is still on the roster on Day 5 of the 2025 league year.

The team paying Cousins that bonus would be interesting, but this situation does differ a bit from the Broncos’ decision to cut Wilson, as they the AFC West club was protecting itself against his 2025 base salary becoming guaranteed. The Falcons already have to eat a $27.5MM base, regardless of how they proceed with the 14th-year vet, but they would have a faint hope of trading the Cousins contract. That makes Atlanta’s route interesting, as Fontenot is now 0-for-4 in playoff berths or .500 seasons as a GM. Michael Penix Jr. emerging as a solid starter would minimize the damage from the Cousins miss, but time would seem to be running out on a struggling decision-maker.

The Browns have been linked to Cousins, who played under Kevin Stefanski for two seasons in Minnesota. Considering the Browns’ Deshaun Watson mess extends through 2026, Cousins on a vet-minimum deal — what he would almost certainly be tied to due were the Falcons to cut him, due to offset language in his current contract — would seem rather enticing for Cleveland. Cleveland also has a direct path to either Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders, however. Cousins may be leery of finding himself in the same situation as 2024, but after a down season, the soon-to-be 37-year-old’s options will be limited.

The Vikings’ decision

In a more commanding position with Darnold than they were with Cousins in 2024, the Vikings could send the best free agent option to the market or hang onto him as either high-priced J.J. McCarthy insurance (via the franchise tag) or a trade asset (in a tag-and-trade move). Either way, this is a much better spot for Minnesota compared to last year, when its starter left and stuck the team with a $28.5MM dead money bill.

Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has been cagey about his choice, but less than a week remains until the Vikings must decide on a tag. No tag by 3pm CT on March 4 would effectively send Darnold to free agency. This would be a better financial path for the rejuvenated passer, who played for $4.5MM in 2023 and $10MM in 2024. A host of QB-needy teams would pursue Darnold, ensuring plenty of guaranteed money will be available beyond Year 1. The Raiders were connected early, and other teams would be ready to enter the mix. Back in December, the Browns were mentioned as a party monitoring this situation

We have heard the Vikings being a bit leery of applying the tag, at more than $40MM, which could open the door to the team letting Darnold walk and huddling back up with Jones as a much cheaper McCarthy insurance option. Kevin O’Connell has spoken highly of Jones, who could be a Darnold-, Baker Mayfield– or Geno Smith-like rejuvenation candidate under the reigning Coach of the Year. Jones would be far less costly than Darnold. The six-year Giant would be a bridge candidate elsewhere, on a one-year deal, but he would naturally be interested in seeing how the Vikings handle the Darnold matter.

A rumor about McCarthy needing plenty of work included a GM predicting the Vikings tag Darnold to protect themselves; more Darnold tag rumors also surfaced before his struggles in Week 18 and in Round 1. Despite his late-season faceplant, the former No. 3 overall pick belatedly delivered on his USC hype under O’Connell. After Mayfield and Smith proved their resurgences were far from fluky, Darnold will be the unquestioned prize on this year’s market. The Vikings will, then, have the most important say in this year’s free agency.

Re-Examining Jets’ Aaron Rodgers Addition

February 23rd, 2025 at 9:14pm CST by Adam La Rose

When the Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers, the move was known to be a short-term acquisition. Still, the future Hall of Famer’s abbreviated tenure in New York took a form neither he nor the team anticipated and both sides are now moving on.

In the spring of 2023, the Jets faced the task of once again attempting to find a feasible solution at the quarterback spot. The Sam Darnold selection (third overall, 2018) did not work out as planned, and the decision to trade him to the Panthers after three seasons as a starter signaled another reset at the position. Zach Wilson (second overall, 2021) underwhelmed during his first two years atop the depth chart and was ultimately traded away like three of the other passers taken on Day 1 from his draft class.

After inheriting Darnold, general manager Joe Douglas was tasked with moving on and finding a suitable replacement. The Wilson selection did not meet that goal, and in 2023 adding an established signal-caller represented an obvious priority. A roster featuring former Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year (Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner) on their initial contracts offered intriguing potential with stable quarterback play. With a Rodgers-Packers separation on the table, the possibility of a trade increased.

Rodgers made public his desire to continue his decorated career with the Jets, and a swap was ultimately worked out in April. Two of his four career MVP awards came in the 2020s, so expectations were high upon arrival in New York for a stretch atop the depth chart with Wilson serving as an understudy. That plan was of course altered right away as a result of Rodgers’ Achilles tear four snaps into his Jets debut. Wilson and Co. struggled on offense en route to a 7-10 record.

By the time Rodgers was back on the field, Wilson had been dealt to the Broncos while Douglas, head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett remained in place after receiving a mulligan from ownership. Issues on offense persisted early in 2024, however, and in the midst of what became a five-game losing streak Saleh was fired. That move was accompanied by Hackett (who worked with Rodgers in Green Bay and was added to the staff not long before the trade was made) being demoted, something Saleh contemplated during the offseason.

While Rodgers managed to remain in the lineup for all 17 games, the staff changes and even the trade acquisition of longtime Packers teammate Davante Adams did not produce the desired results. After dismissing Douglas midway through the campaign, signs pointed to the Jets moving in a new direction once again this offseason. The new regime led by Darren Mougey and Aaron Glenn will now take on the renewed task of finding a short- and long-term solution under center.

As that process unfolds, a look back on the price paid to add Rodgers reveals the extent of the commitment the Jets made in acquiring him. Here is the final breakdown of the trade with Green Bay which resulted in his New York arrival:

Jets received:

Packers received:

  • No. 13 pick in 2023 draft (used on OLB Lukas Van Ness)
  • No. 42 pick in 2023 (used on TE Luke Musgrave)
  • No. 207 pick in 2023 (used on K Anders Carlson)
  • No. 41 pick in 2024 (subsequently traded for the selection used on LB Edgerrin Cooper along with a collection of other Day 3 picks)

McDonald certainly enjoyed a much more productive Year 2 than Van Ness, but Cooper’s potential shown late in his rookie campaign in particular has him on track to operate as a key Packers defender for the foreseeable future. From Green Bay’s perspective, of course, the Rodgers swap also allowed the team to move out the remainder of his contract and marked the beginning of the full-fledged commitment to Jordan Love at quarterback.

Rodgers accepted a considerable pay cut upon arrival with the Jets, agreeing to a new pact which took into account his intention of playing at least two years for his new team. Even with that move, he would up collecting $75.05MM for his pair of campaigns in New York. The Jets’ decision to move forward with a release will likely take the form of a post-June 1 cut, something which will generate a dead cap charge of $49MM spread across 2025 and ’26.

Of course, the Rodgers experiment also brought with it the acquisition cost for several of his former Packers teammates. That included the free agent signings of Allen Lazard (four years, $44MM) and Randall Cobb (one year, $3MM) in 2023. The latter retired after his one-and-done Jets campaign, while the former did not produce as expected even when Rodgers was healthy. A Lazard release is expected in the near future, and if the move does not carry a post-June 1 designation New York’s $6.63M in savings will essentially be balanced out by the dead money charge of $6.55MM.

As for Adams, the trade which brought him from the Raiders to the Jets cost a third-round pick (since the conditions required to upgrade it to a second-rounder were not met). The six-time Pro Bowler averaged over 77 receiving yards per contest and scored seven touchdowns in 11 games with New York, but with Rodgers on the way out he is likely to be cut. Moving on from Adams will create considerable savings for the Jets, but doing so before the start of the new league year will nevertheless generate $8.36MM in dead money.

While it is true the Jets would have made other additions at the receiver spot without Rodgers in place over the past two years, the team’s 2023 and ‘24 aggressiveness proved to be quite costly. Counting the Day 1 and 3 selections used in his trade as a wash while adding in the money and cap commitments also made to the Cobb-Lazard-Adams trio (plus the pick used to acquire the latter), the final tally stands at two second-rounders, one third-round selection, roughly $111MM in cash and nearly $64MM in dead money across the next two years. In all, the Jets went 12-22 in the Rodgers era.

In the wake of his split with the team’s new regime, it has been learned Rodgers still has the door open to continuing his career in 2025. Regardless of what happens on that front, it is clear Mougey and Glenn will hope to have better success at the quarterback spot than their predecessors.

2025 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates

February 20th, 2025 at 10:04pm CST by Sam Robinson

Last year’s salary cap spike created another opportunity for teams to retain talent, and once the upcoming cap surge (roughly $25MM) produces a number, the 2020 CBA will have produced four straight single-year jumps by at least $16MM. These climbs, which dwarf the per-year jumps the 2011 CBA brought, have both helped teams retain talent and pay for free agents while also ballooning the costs of franchise tags.

That said, last year featured eight players given the franchise tag and one (Kyle Dugger) receiving the transition tender. Illustrating the cap climb’s impact, eight of those nine players landed extensions. None of them occurred near the July 15 extension deadline for tagged players, leaving only the Bengals and Tee Higgins‘ non-negotiations still outstanding by the time the usually action-packed stretch arrived. Higgins is back among this year’s lot of potential tag recipients, but not as many players join him.

We are now in Year 33 of the franchise tag, a retention tool that came about during the same offseason in which full-fledged free agency spawned. With clubs having until 3pm CT on March 4 to apply tags, here is who may be cuffed:

Likely tag recipients

Tee Higgins, WR (Bengals)
Tag cost: $26.18MM

It never made too much sense for the Bengals to pass on tagging Higgins, who would at least — in the event the team would squash Joe Burrow‘s crusade to retain the veteran Ja’Marr Chase sidekick — fetch draft capital in a trade. A second Higgins tag comes in at 120% of his 2024 tag price ($21.82MM). It would be interesting if the Bengals went from not negotiating with Higgins during his four months on the tag last year — and generally being prepared to move on in 2025 — to circling back and paying him a market-value deal, but that does seem to be in play.

Burrow’s push would see the team having roughly $70MM per year allocated to the receiver position; that would squash where even the Eagles and Dolphins have gone for their high-end wideout duos. Higgins, 26, was unable to market his age-25 season thanks to the tag. If the latest rumors surrounding the former second-round pick are accurate, he would be kept off the open market once again. That is a fairly significant window to miss; then again, he would have banked $48MM during that period.

The Bengals are projected to carry more than $53MM in cap space, making this a solution they can afford. But after extensive negotiations with Chase last year and Burrow stumping for Higgins, the team has an important decision to make soon.

Cincinnati has less than two weeks to give Higgins a long-term deal. It would mark quite the about-face to do so. The organization has not seriously negotiated with the WR since the first half of 2023, and even when talks did commence, no proposal came too close to $20MM per year. Those talks predictably broke down, and Higgins’ new price is believed to be around $30MM. With plenty of suitors awaiting — the cap-rich Patriots among them — that would be doable for the 6-foot-4 target, who is coming off a better season compared to his 2023 showing.

Higgins zoomed back to his usual form by hauling in 73 passes for 911 yards and a career-high 10 touchdowns; his 75.9 yards per game trailed only his 2021 number (77.9). Higgins, however, missed five games for a second straight season. Hamstring and quad injuries kept Higgins off the field last year, but his market does not appear to have cooled as a result. At worst, the Bengals could fetch Day 2 draft capital in a trade. A first-round pick may be tougher here due to an acquiring team needing to authorize a pricey extension, but teams have been calling ahead of the past two deadlines. Cincinnati still has options, but its Higgins plans will certainly need to be run by Burrow given how much he has stumped for the team to retain the five-year vet.

On tag radar

Sam Darnold, QB (Vikings)
Projected tag cost: $42.39MM

Rumors have not pointed to a clear-cut plan here. At least, the Vikings’ vision for their would-be bridge QB has not become public. But the sides are still talking. Minnesota saw the formerly underwhelming starter break through at 27, taking advantage of the Vikings’ weaponry and Kevin O’Connell‘s ability to coach up quarterbacks. Darnold earned original-ballot Pro Bowl acclaim, throwing 35 touchdown passes (to 12 INTs) and smashing more career-high marks in yardage (4,319) and completion percentage (66.2). Previously in place to hold down the fort while J.J. McCarthy developed, Darnold saw the rookie’s meniscus tear change his Twin Cities outlook.

McCarthy has undergone two surgeries and may have a long way to go in his rehab. As McCarthy went down before playing a regular-season snap, it would make sense for the Vikings to give strong consideration to cuffing Darnold as a pricey insurance measure. On the other hand, the Vikings have a few key performers set to hit the market soon. Byron Murphy, Camryn Bynum and Aaron Jones are moving toward the market. A Darnold cap hold of more than $40MM would clog Minnesota’s payroll ahead of free agency, though the team is projected to carry $63.3MM in space.

Darnold’s late-season letdown undoubtedly factors into the Vikes’ equation, as $42.39MM can be viewed as a bit steep for a player who did not consistently impress in New York or Carolina. But Darnold has proven he can excel in O’Connell’s system. As we detailed on a recent Trade Rumors Front Office post, a multiyear deal for Darnold would not make as much sense; the team still has high hopes for McCarthy. Unless the Vikings plan to entertain the expected trade calls for last year’s No. 10 overall pick, the only way Darnold would stay would be via the tag.

A tag would not be in Darnold’s best interests, as the soon-to-be 28-year-old passer has rare momentum ahead of an offseason featuring several teams with QB needs. A much-criticized draft class at the position would also benefit Darnold, who has been linked to potentially scoring a Baker Mayfield-like deal (three years, $100MM). With the cap now climbing to around $280MM, the seven-year vet could conceivably aim higher. The Vikings hold the cards here in the meantime, as this represents one of the more interesting tag decisions in several years.

Big markets await otherwise

Jevon Holland, S (Dolphins)
Projected tag cost: $20.13MM

Already cutting Raheem Mostert, Kendall Fuller and Durham Smythe to save space, the Dolphins are not expected to roll out a tag for Holland. This would mark a second straight year the Dolphins will send one of the top free agency-eligible players to the market. Miami let Christian Wilkins and Robert Hunt walk in 2024; each lineman signed a top-market deal. Holland would be expected to follow suit, as the former second-round pick has started 57 games and is going into his age-25 season. The Dolphins are projected to hold barely $1MM in cap space, mandating more moves ahead of the 2025 league year.

The British Columbia, Canada, native has five career sacks, five picks and five forced fumbles. This comes along with 25 pass breakups. The past two free agencies have seen one safety check in much higher than his peers contractually, with Jessie Bates (four years, $64MM) and Xavier McKinney (4/67) scoring top-five contracts. The latest cap spike will help Holland, who can aim for the $16MM-AAV Bates tier as a floor.

Although PFF viewed Holland as better under Vic Fangio (third overall) than Anthony Weaver (56th), the months-long Miami extension candidate will still do very well if he hits the market. Extension talks with the Oregon alum did not pick up before last season, and the Dolphins appear close to losing another quality starter early in free agency.

Trey Smith, G (Chiefs)
Projected tag cost: $25.8MM

Over the past 15 years, only two guards have been tagged: Brandon Scherff and Joe Thuney. Washington cuffed Scherff twice, letting him walk in 2022. New England kept Thuney as a placeholder during a busy 2020 on the tag front. Both players scored then-guard-record deals on the open market. Smith is expected to follow suit, as the Chiefs are viewed as unlikely to apply this pricey placeholder on their four-year right guard starter. Despite having attempted to extend Smith for a bit last summer, the former sixth-round find remains unsigned.

Kansas City looks likely to go left tackle shopping, as Thuney proved overmatched in his final fill-in assignment there, and its four-year LG starter is under contract for one more season. The Chiefs’ four-year, $80MM Jawaan Taylor misstep carries an already-guaranteed 2025 base salary ($19.5MM), thanks to the ex-Jaguar RT being on the Chiefs’ roster last March, and the team handed All-Pro Creed Humphrey a deal that easily made him the NFL’s highest-paid center. Losing Smith may be the cost of doing business, unless the three-time defending AFC champions can craft an 11th-hour solution to keep the 25-year-old Pro Bowler via the tag.

Ronnie Stanley, T (Ravens)
Projected tag cost: $25.8MM

It is highly unlikely the Ravens use the tag here, as they already gave Stanley a pay cut in 2024. That said, Baltimore wants to work something out with its longtime left tackle. Stanley’s injury history also would make a $25.8MM guarantee lofty, but this also could be a placeholder to ensure he does not leave in free agency. The Ravens lost three O-line starters in 2024, and this is the costliest position up front.

Then again, the Ravens faced a similar situation in 2019, and they let C.J. Mosley walk rather than overpay on the tag. The Ravens have used the tag in each of the past two offseasons, but it was to retain younger players (Lamar Jackson, Nnamdi Madubuike). They currently are projected to carry barely $12MM in cap space. As PFF notes, only six players 28 and older have been tagged over the past five years. No player over 30 has been tagged since the Bengals retained A.J. Green in 2020. Green was 32 that season; Stanley will turn 31 in March.

The Garett Bolles–Dion Dawkins–Taylor Decker tier, as our Nikhil Mehta pointed out, may be the place to watch for Stanley, who reestablished momentum last season after playing 17 games for the first time in his career and making the Pro Bowl. He is in position to command a nice third contract. Will it come from the Ravens? After the tag window closes, Baltimore has until March 10 to negotiate exclusively with the nine-year blocker.

Release Candidate: Von Miller

February 17th, 2025 at 9:04pm CST by Adam La Rose

When Von Miller signed a six-year, $120MM free agent deal in 2022, questions were raised about how he would be able to remain productive over the life of that pact. Halfway through the deal, a release looms as a distinct possibility.

Miller had a strong debut campaign with Buffalo, notching eight sacks in 11 games. An ACL tear ended his season, however, and it delayed his debut the following year. The former Bronco and Ram Super Bowl winner managed to suit up for 12 contests in 2023, but he was held without a sack and handled only a rotational role. That was followed by a pay cut being worked out last March.

The 35-year-old was again a part-time contributor off the edge in 2024, logging a snap share of 33%. Miller did rebound to an extent on the statsheet with six sacks and 16 pressures in 13 games (played on either side of his four-game suspension), but reducing his impact on the team’s cap moving forward is a sensible goal. Unless Miller agrees to reduce his pay again, Joe Buscaglia writes a release can be expected (subscription required).

Miller’s scheduled compensation ranges from $17.5MM to $30MM over the next three years, but none of his base salaries over that span are guaranteed. A release before June 1 would create a larger dead money charge than cap savings for the Bills. If the team designated him a post-June 1 cut, though, $17.44MM in cap space would be created while incurring a dead money charge of only $6.37MM. Miller’s scheduled cap hit of $23.81MM certainly leaves the door open to such a move.

The Bills are led along the edge by Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa. The former is currently on track to play on his $13.39MM fifth-year option in 2025, but it would come as no surprise if the team targeted a long-term extension in his case. The latter, meanwhile, inked a two-year pact last March. Buffalo could continue to depend on those young pass rushers moving forward with 2024 fifth-rounder Javon Solomon in place as a developmental option.

Veteran Dawuane Smoot is a pending free agent, though, and losing him on the open market in addition to cutting Miller would leave the Bills in need of depth additions via free agency and/or the draft. The 2025 class contains a number of highly-regarded pass rush prospects and with 10 projected selections this April Buffalo will have plenty of opportunities to add at least one. Moving on from Miller would of course be a sign the team prefers to go in a younger direction along the edge for 2025 and beyond.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Ronnie Stanley

February 16th, 2025 at 9:52pm CST by Nikhil Mehta

After taking a $7.5MM pay cut ahead of the 2024 season, left tackle Ronnie Stanley started every game for the first time in his career and earned Pro Bowl honors as a crucial piece of the Ravens’ league-leading offense.

Now, he is set to enter free agency following his best and healthiest season since his devastating ankle injury in October 2020. Stanley tried to come back to start the 2021 season but played just one game before undergoing surgery for a second time. He took a more gradual approach to his return in 2022, waiting until Week 4 to start and even rotating snaps with Patrick Mekari. He missed a few weeks with another injury, but returned as the Ravens’ full-time left tackle for the rest of the year. The injury concerns continued when Stanley missed Weeks 2 to 4 in 2023 and ended the season once again rotating with Mekari.

Stanley bounced back in 2024, starting all 17 games with a career-high 1,089 snaps. The 2016 first-round pick is still not the dominant pass protector that earned first-team All-Pro honors in 2019, but he is clearly one of the more capable left tackles in the NFL. Given the league’s scarcity at the position, Stanley will likely draw a strong market in free agency.

The Ravens may not let him get that far. Baltimore used the sixth overall pick – the franchise’s highest selection since 2000 – on Stanley in 2016 and signed him to a five-year, $98.75MM extension just three days before his 2020 injury. He has been the team’s preferred left tackle for his entire career when healthy, including the duration of the Lamar Jackson era.

With Mekari also hitting free agency, the Ravens have an uncertain future at the position. They could flip second-year tackle Roger Rosengarten to the blindside, but they would then have to replace him on the right side and deal with the bumps of two new starters on the offensive line. Re-signing Stanley would allow them to bring some continuity into 2025 and keep Rosengarten in the spot where he showed tremendous growth as a rookie. Stanley is an also an excellent fit in Todd Monken‘s offense and a respected leader in the Ravens’ locker room.

Stanley proved his value after accepting a pay cut, so he will be looking to re-establish himself as one of the league’s highest-paid left tackles. He has expressed a desire to stay in Baltimore for the rest of his career, but that doesn’t mean he will give the Ravens a hometown discount. Stanley will likely be seeking upwards of $20MM per year after Garett Bolles signed a $20.5MM APY extension with the Broncos in December. Given his injury history and struggles against elite competition like Myles Garrett and Trey Hendrickson in 2024, Stanley will likely find it difficult to break into the top tier of left tackle contracts at $22MM APY and above.

Stanley is the most proven pending free agent as his position, though a number of potential starters will be available in March. Cam Robinson and Alaric Jackson started for most of last season, while Tyron Smith, Joseph Noteboom, and Jedrick Wills all missed significant time due to injury. None played as well as Stanley in 2024, though he did benefit from Lamar Jackson‘s elite ability to evade pressure and avoid sacks.

Unlike last year’s tackle-rich draft class, the 2025 draft has just two surefire first-round tackles: Will Campbell out of LSU and Kelvin Banks Jr. out of Texas. Neither is expected to fall to the Ravens at the 27th overall pick, and general manager Eric DeCosta is extremely unlikely to trade up. Re-signing Stanley has long seemed like Baltimore’s best and most likely option, though the team was willing to gamble with their offensive line last year.

In addition to the Ravens, Stanley could receive interest from teams like the Patriots and the Jaguars. Both teams have ample cap space this offseason and need new left tackles to protect their franchise quarterbacks. After their stunning Super Bowl defeat due to a leaky offensive line, the Chiefs could also be a dark-horse contender for Stanley’s services. However, he will be 31 by the time the 2025 regular season rolls around. The longtime Raven may very well conclude that his best fit and chance to win a championship will be in Baltimore where he has spent his entire career.

2025 NFL Cap Space, By Team

February 15th, 2025 at 9:45pm CST by Adam La Rose

Free agency is roughly one month away, and teams are preparing for the first major roster-building checkpoint on the offseason calendar. In several cases, of course, the lead-in to the start of the new league year will require cost-cutting measures.

Teams expect the 2025 cap ceiling to check in somewhere between $265MM and $275MM, providing a general target to aim for before the final figure is unveiled by the NFL. Using a projected cap of $272.5MM, here is a look at where all 32 teams currently stand (courtesy of Over the Cap):

  1. New England Patriots: $119.8MM
  2. Las Vegas Raiders: $92.53MM
  3. Washington Commanders: $75.21MM
  4. Arizona Cardinals: $71.33MM
  5. Los Angeles Chargers: $63.41MM
  6. Chicago Bears: $62.97MM
  7. Minnesota Vikings: $58.01MM
  8. Pittsburgh Steelers: $53.26MM
  9. Cincinnati Bengals: $46.26MM
  10. Detroit Lions: $45.69MM
  11. San Francisco 49ers: $44.26MM
  12. Tennessee Titans: $44.08MM
  13. New York Giants: $43.38MM
  14. Green Bay Packers: $42.14MM
  15. Los Angeles Rams: $38.33MM
  16. Denver Broncos: $34.78MM
  17. Jacksonville Jaguars: $32.27MM
  18. Indianapolis Colts: $28.25MM
  19. Carolina Panthers: $20.33MM
  20. Philadelphia Eagles: $18.08MM
  21. New York Jets: $16.86MM
  22. Baltimore Ravens: $5.96MM
  23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $2.24MM
  24. Houston Texans: $99K over the cap
  25. Kansas City Chiefs: $916K over
  26. Dallas Cowboys: $2.85MM over
  27. Miami Dolphins: $5.44MM over
  28. Atlanta Falcons: $11.15MM over
  29. Seattle Seahawks: $13.46MM over
  30. Buffalo Bills: $14.18MM over
  31. Cleveland Browns: $30.17MM over
  32. New Orleans Saints: $54.11MM over

These figures will of course change based on where the final cap ceiling winds up for the year, but they take into account each team’s carryover amount for 2025. Even with those savings in play, more than one quarter of the league finds itself in need of cost-shedding moves to simply achieve cap compliance by mid-March.

With the Patriots leading the way in terms of spending power, they will be a team to watch closely once free agency begins. The team’s willingness (or lack thereof) to make major free agent additions last year was a talking point, and it will be interesting to see if the regime featuring de facto general manager Eliot Wolf and new head coach Mike Vrabel takes a different approach in 2025. A serious push for Tee Higgins – by far the most sought-after wideout set to hit the market – can be expected.

Aside from Higgins, the Bengals have a number of financial priorities. Working out a monster extension for fellow receiver Ja’Marr Chase and a new deal (and accompanying raise) for edge rusher Trey Hendrickson are key goals for the franchise. Quarterback Joe Burrow is prepared to restructure his own pact to create cap space for this offseason, but the team will no doubt need to break with tradition in terms of contract structure and guarantees to keep its core intact.

The Colts’ offseason has been defined in large part by a focus on retaining in-house players during recent years. That approach has not paid off as hoped, and general manager Chris Ballard said last month he plans to oversee a shift in roster-building philosophy this year. With the finances to make at least a modest addition or two on the open market, Indianapolis could be a suitor for some of the middle-class free agent options.

Over the coming weeks, many teams will proceed with extensions and restructures to free up cap space; the Seahawks recently took the latter route with defensive lineman Leonard Williams. Teams like the Steelers (in the case of edge rusher Preston Smith) and Dolphins (with running back Raheem Mostert as well as corner Kendall Fuller and tight end Durham Smythe) have already begin cutting veterans to free up cap space. That will increasingly continue in the near future with respect to the teams currently slated to be over the cap in particular.

Poll: Which Team Made Best 2025 HC Hire?

February 12th, 2025 at 10:06pm CST by Sam Robinson

With the Saints making their post-Super Bowl Kellen Moore hire official, the NFL’s 2025 HC carousel has stopped. Nearly a fourth of the league has now changed coaches. Who fared the best with their hire?

Starting in Chicago makes sense, as the Bears convinced picky candidate Ben Johnson to sign on. Johnson was squarely on the Jaguars and Raiders’ radars, to the point it is safe to assume the three-year Lions OC was the favorite for both AFC teams. Johnson expressed concern about the Jaguars’ then-Trent Baalke-centered front office setup, and the Raiders could not entice the highly valued play-caller with a rumored big offer.

The Bears are believed to be giving Johnson a $13MM-per-year deal — more than twice Matt Eberflus‘ salary — to develop Caleb Williams after an uneven rookie season. After Johnson played the lead role in reviving Jared Goff‘s career and turning the Lions’ offense into a dominant attack, this is the most anticipated Bears hire in decades. Johnson will work with holdover GM Ryan Poles, who is expected to receive an extension, and team president Kevin Warren.

As this marks a third straight instance of the Bears drafting a first-round quarterback then firing their HC one season into that player’s career, the Patriots are in the same boat. They jettisoned Jerod Mayo one year into Drake Maye‘s career, capping a tough year for Robert Kraft, who passed on a head coaching search in 2024 due to having identified Mayo as Bill Belichick‘s long-term successor years ago. Kraft’s initial plan was for Belichick to coach through the 2024 season, giving Mayo more on-the-job training. But the Pats’ 4-13 2023 record scuttled that aim. After Belichick’s firing, Mayo did not prove ready — in the eyes of Kraft and most other observers.

Enter Mike Vrabel, who will make his return to Foxborough 16 years after being included in the Matt Cassel tag-and-trade transaction. The 2021 NFL Coach of the Year made sense as an option in 2024, when the Pats had a vacancy, but the team had inserted language in Mayo’s contract naming him the HC-in-waiting. New England has Vrabel set up to have the final say moving forward, though both he and de facto GM Eliot Wolf will report to Kraft. Vrabel was viewed as having overachieved in Tennessee, leading the Titans to their first AFC championship game since 2002 and following that up with two more playoff berths — including a No. 1 seed in 2021.

The Jaguars enjoyed a much more complicated route to complete its HC hire. After favorite Liam Coen initially rejected a second interview, Shad Khan fired Baalke — who was again viewed as a hindrance in a coaching search — and conducted stealth negotiations with Coen to reconsider. He ultimately did, and despite the one-and-done Buccaneers OC not having worked for the same team in back-to-back years since a three-season Rams tenure that ended in 2020, he is believed to be tied to a Johnson-level contract and will effectively pick the next Jaguars GM.

This is quite the coup for Coen, after he helped Baker Mayfield to a 41-touchdown pass season, and the exit — after Coen had agreed on a Bucs extension — certainly ruffled feathers in Tampa. But the Jags were desperate for an offense-minded coach to boost Trevor Lawrence, whom the team gave a $55MM-per-year extension ahead of a 4-13 season.

The Raiders pivoted to Pete Carroll, who is set to become the oldest HC in NFL history. Carroll, who will turn 74 in September, profiles as a short-term option. The Raiders gave the former Seahawks Super Bowl-winning leader a three-year deal, which is shorter than the typical HC contract. Carroll will work with powerful minority owner Tom Brady in aiming to turn the Raiders around. The Raiders have gone through four HCs and four GMs (John Spytek the latest) this decade, and they will hope Carroll can calm things down. Carroll was linked to conducting his interviews with a potential successor in mind. The team, however, hired 61-year-old OC Chip Kelly and kept Josh McDaniels‘ DC choice (Patrick Graham); this points to Carroll’s successor not yet being with the team.

Like Vrabel, Aaron Glenn is returning to the team with which his playing career is best identified. The former Jets first-round CB is being given more power than Robert Saleh held, being set to report to ownership. Woody Johnson went so far as to label GM Darren Mougey as Glenn’s sidekick, illustrating both a tremendous opportunity for Glenn and the state of a Jets organization that had trouble attracting candidates (Vrabel and Johnson among them) after a turbulent year.

Glenn, who comes over after elevating the Lions into a top-10 defense despite Aidan Hutchinson‘s injury, is already making his voice heard. Aaron Rodgers is not expected back, with Glenn and Mougey believed to have pressed the QB on ditching his Pat McAfee Show segments in an effort to focus on football. After two years of the Jets catering to Rodgers, they are in the hunt for a new passer — one Glenn will have a significant say in identifying.

Prior to his Cowboys meetings, Brian Schottenheimer had not conducted a head coaching interview since PFR launched in 2014. The second-generation NFL coach has made the stunning leap from off-radar candidate, who had been Mike McCarthy‘s non-play-calling OC, to Jerry Jones‘ next sideline leader. The Cowboys again conducted a strange HC change, waiting a week to ditch McCarthy — after term length proved a negotiating sticking point — before being tied to Deion Sanders, who never officially interviewed.

Schottenheimer beat out three candidates, as Dallas’ past three HC changes have now featured an interim promotion (Jason Garrett), a two-candidate pool (McCarthy) and now an off-grid option. Schottenheimer has, however, been a four-time NFL OC, dating back to 2006. He was in place for some strong Russell Wilson Seahawks showings, albeit having been fired from that post after three seasons.

The Saints saw McCarthy, Joe Brady and Kliff Kingsbury bow out, as their perennially bad cap situation — one featuring an onerous Derek Carr contract — certainly may have deterred some candidates. But Moore stuck with the team, agreeing to terms despite Super Bowl LIX having raised his stock considerably. The three-time OC will call plays in New Orleans, which will aim to find a post-Carr answer during Moore’s tenure.

Although the new Saints HC’s staff has yet to take shape, Moore will aim to elevate New Orleans after four straight non-playoff seasons. He comes to Louisiana after helming an Eagles offense that peaked at the right time, as the team overpowered the Commanders and Chiefs to claim the championship.

Which teams did the best (and worst) this year? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the 2025 HC carousel in the comments section.

Updated 2025 NFL Draft Order

February 10th, 2025 at 8:58am CST by Adam La Rose

With Super Bowl LIX in the books, the 2024 campaign has come to a close. The final first-round order for April’s draft is now set as a result.

All 32 teams currently own a Day 1 selection, leaving the door open to each one adding a prospect in the first round for the first time since expansion in 2002. Any number of trades will no doubt take place between now and the draft, though, and it will be interesting to see how teams maneuver in the lead-in to the event. Of course, Tennessee in particular will be worth watching closely with a move to sell off the No. 1 pick being seen as a distinct possibility.

A weak quarterback class will leave teams like the Titans, Browns, Giants and Raiders with plenty of key offseason decisions. The free agent and trade markets do not offer many short-term alternatives which are seen as surefire additions, and teams which do not make moves in March will rely on the incoming group of rookies as part of their efforts to find a long-term solution under center. The two prospects seen as the clear-cut top options in 2025, however, are two-way Colorado star Travis Hunter and Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter.

For non-playoff teams, the draft order is determined by the inverted 2024 standings plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule. Playoff squads are slotted by their postseason outcome and the reverse order of their regular season record.

Here is a final look at the first-round order:

  1. Tennessee Titans (3-14)
  2. Cleveland Browns (3-14)
  3. New York Giants (3-14)
  4. New England Patriots (4-13)
  5. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13)
  6. Las Vegas Raiders (4-13)
  7. New York Jets (5-12)
  8. Carolina Panthers (5-12)
  9. New Orleans Saints (5-12)
  10. Chicago Bears (5-12)
  11. San Francisco 49ers (6-11)
  12. Dallas Cowboys (7-10)
  13. Miami Dolphins (8-9)
  14. Indianapolis Colts (8-9)
  15. Atlanta Falcons (8-9)
  16. Arizona Cardinals (8-9)
  17. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
  18. Seattle Seahawks (10-7)
  19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
  20. Denver Broncos (10-7)
  21. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
  22. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
  23. Green Bay Packers (11-6)
  24. Minnesota Vikings (14-3)
  25. Houston Texans (10-7)
  26. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
  27. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
  28. Detroit Lions (15-2)
  29. Washington Commanders (12-5)
  30. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
  31. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
  32. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Injured Reserve Return Tracker

February 8th, 2025 at 6:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

This offseason brought a change in how teams could construct their 53-man rosters while retaining flexibility with injured players. Clubs were permitted to attach return designations to two players (in total) placed on IR or an NFI list before setting their initial rosters.

In prior years, anyone placed on IR before a team set its initial 53-man roster could not be activated in-season. All August 27 IR- or NFI-return designations, however, already count against teams’ regular-season limit of eight. This introduces more strategy for teams, who will be tasked with determining which players injured in-season will factor into activation puzzles as the year progresses.

All players designated for return on August 27 were eligible to be activated beginning in Week 5, though any player placed on IR after a team set its initial 53 has not been designated for return and therefore does not yet count toward a club’s eight-activation limit. Players who receive return designations after Week 5 also appear on this list.

This offseason also brought a second adjustment, with teams who qualify for the playoffs set to have two additional activations at their disposals. With the playoffs upon us, the two additional activations have been added to each team’s ledger. Here is how the Chiefs and Eagles’ activation puzzles look going into Super Bowl LIX:

Kansas City Chiefs

Designated for return:

Reverted to season-ending IR

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 4

Philadelphia Eagles

Designated for return from IR (August 27):

Designated for return:

Reverted to season-ending IR:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 3

Poll: Who Will Win Super Bowl LIX?

February 7th, 2025 at 10:40pm CST by Sam Robinson

After outscoring opponents by 211 points in a 14-game 1975 season, the Steelers pitched five shutouts in 1976. Pittsburgh’s regular-season-ending nine-game win streak featured only two touchdowns allowed. As the 1989 49ers outscored playoff opposition 126-26, their 1990 edition went 14-2 and rostered back-to-back MVP Joe Montana. The Cowboys’ 1994 threepeat attempt saw both the Jerry Jones-Jimmy Johnson separation and a free agent-laden 49ers team play featured roles in their season.

All three dynasties saw their efforts at a third straight Super Bowl win stall in the conference championship round. The Packers did win three straight titles in the 1960s, though the first — in 1965 — came before the Super Bowl’s launch. This Chiefs run, for myriad reasons, has not brought the level of reverence compared to the above-referenced dynasties. While Kansas City’s effort has largely lacked the dominance the aforementioned operations displayed, Andy Reid‘s crew is the closest in the Super Bowl era to completing a signature NFL accomplishment.

The Chiefs are the first threepeat-seeking team to reach a Super Bowl. Although many would probably have a difficult time reconciling this Kansas City tightrope walk as the blueprint that pulls off this historic feat, as none of the Chiefs’ past three teams probably come too close to the juggernauts that headline lists of the league’s all-time greatest teams. However, even if the Chiefs’ present form does not exactly remind of the explosive start to their dynasty (as back-to-back 15th-place offensive rankings show), no team had even managed to win back-to-back Super Bowls since the 2003-04 Patriots.

Regardless of how the Chiefs made it here, they have shown historic reliability. The Reid- and Patrick Mahomes-fueled superpower has secured this opportunity due to unprecedented execution in close games. The Chiefs have won their past 17 one-score contests, setting a record. Will the Eagles wreck their well-crafted threepeat bid?

Although the Chiefs’ one-score streak does not quite stretch back to Super Bowl LVII, they emerged victorious in that matchup. A hotly debated holding call on James Bradberry denied the NFC champions a chance at a potential game-winning drive, but that Eagles team saw its top-10 defense unravel in the second half. Even as Jalen Hurts carved up a well-regarded Chiefs defense that night, the Eagles fell just short largely because of mistakes on defense and special teams. After last season’s Sean Desai–Matt Patricia defense cratered to do enough to create Nick Sirianni hot-seat rumors, the Eagles have stabilized this unit via their Vic Fangio hire.

Not as reliant on sacks as the 2022 team was, the Eagles allowed fewer yards per play (4.7) with 41 sacks than they did with 70 two years ago (4.8). The team has seen emergences from All-Pros Jalen Carter and Zack Baun, the latter reaching first-team status on a one-year, $3.5MM deal, fuel its first two levels while rookie cornerback investments Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have been quick studies on the back end. The team’s decision to give Bryce Huff a $17MM-per-year deal has not paid off yet, but agreeing to a rework with Josh Sweat — before trading Haason Reddick — has benefited a defense that ranked first in yardage and second in scoring this season.

Philadelphia also carries a far more imposing run game into this matchup compared to 2022, as the three-year, $37.75MM Saquon Barkley pact — a zag after several years passed without the team allocating much at running back — has provided tremendous value. The NFL’s ninth 2,000-yard rusher already sits seventh for ground yards in a single postseason (442). Only two RBs (John Riggins, Terrell Davis) have amassed 500 in one playoff journey. The Eagles’ extensions for Landon Dickerson and Jordan Mailata, and Jason Kelce succession plan featuring Cam Jurgens, each preceded All-Pro or Pro Bowl accolades.

As Barkley has soared in Philly, Hurts has not factored in as prominently into Kellen Moore‘s offense. The high-priced QB threw 361 passes — 99 fewer than his 2022 output in the same number of games — but cut down on interceptions from 2023 (15 down to five) while matching his per attempt figure (8.0) from his breakthrough season. The pass-game volume decreasing has impacted A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith following their extensions, however. While Hurts does not rival Mahomes in terms of stature in the game, he is the more interesting component in Sunday’s matchup due to the latter’s big-game dependability.

Even when their 38-0 Broncos result is removed, the Chiefs’ point differential is worse than any 15- or 14-win team in NFL history. The first 14-plus-win team to outscore opponents by less than 100 continued to get by with late-game execution, though officiating in these close games certainly became a hot-button topic as well.

The Chiefs are here without Mahomes earning a Pro Bowl nod and as Travis Kelce averaged a career-low 8.5 yards per reception. But the Chiefs finished as the NFL’s second-best third-down team. As Mahomes has become more short- and mid-range merchant than deep-ball assassin, Kansas City has made this setup work without reliable tackle play; All-Pro LG Joe Thuney is expected to start there as a stopgap again Sunday.

Ex-Eagles assistant Steve Spagnuolo‘s defense ranks in the top 10 for the fifth time in six years, however, and it held the Bills to one first down on a potential go-ahead fourth-quarter drive. The decision to give Chris Jones a DT-record $95MM guaranteed, rather than take their chances in free agency, has paid off as well. The top prize from the Tyreek Hill trade, versatile CB Trent McDuffie has remained an elite cover man — on a rookie contract, which the Chiefs effectively mandate at corner — and operates as their second-most important defender.

Although the Eagles may again have more talent top to bottom, the Chiefs’ Reid-Mahomes-Kelce-Jones setup — which is 3-1 in Super Bowls — has elevated them to a slight favorite. Do the Eagles have enough to nix a Chiefs coronation or will this Kansas City dynasty, via a fourth title in six years, keep moving up the all-time ranks? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on Super Bowl LIX in the comments section.

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