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5 Key Stories: 4/7/24 – 4/14/24

April 14th, 2024 at 1:46pm CST by Adam La Rose

The countdown to the draft continues, and teams around the league remain busy hosting prospects set to be selected at every point in the order. Plenty of intrigue is building regarding the teams positioned to add a potential franchise quarterback in particular, though some notable developments concerning established players have also taken place. Here is a quick recap of the NFL’s top stories from the past week:

  • Jags Extend Allen: Another franchise tag recipient landed a long-term deal when the Jaguars inked Josh Allen to a five-year extension. Falling in line with the deal Brian Burns landed upon arrival with the Giants, Allen secured $28.25MM in annual base value and $76.5MM guaranteed at signing. That places him near the top of the edge market and cements his status as a foundational member of Jacksonville’s defense for the foreseeable future. Allen, 26, set a new franchise record with 17.5 sacks in 2023 after failing to reach double digits in that regard each of the past three years. Repeating last season’s success would represent a major development for the Jaguars’ front seven.
  • Chiefs’ Rice Facing Eight Felony Charges: As expected, Rashee Rice now faces charges stemming from his involvement in a hit-and-run incident during which two vehicles which were racing were involved in a six-car crash. The Chiefs wideout – who was driving one of the cars – has been charged with eight felonies (seven counts related to collision involving bodily harm and one count of aggravated assault). Rice turned himself in to police and posted a $40K bail. The 23-year-old’s situation therefore remains one worth monitoring closely in terms of legal developments and the potential league discipline which could accompany them. Theodore Knox, a former teammate of Rice at SMU, was driving the other vehicle; he has been suspended from the Mustangs’ football team and he now faces the same charges as Rice.
  • Daniels Likely Commanders’ Selection At No. 2? The Commanders represent a key turning point in the upcoming draft by owning the second overall pick. With Caleb Williams likely to come off the board first, Washington will have a choice of Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy and Jayden Daniels at the No. 2 slot. Many around the league expect the latter to be the Commanders’ ultimate selection, although the team has ‘top-30’ visits lined up with all three passers. Daniels won the Heisman in 2023, his second season at LSU. The Arizona State transfer has drawn praise for his processing as a passer along with his rushing abilities, but concerns over his age and build have been raised. Whichever rookie heads to the nation’s capital this summer will likely have the chance to compete for the starter’s gig right away, and Daniels’ floor could position him well to see early playing time in 2024.
  • Bucs, Winfield Making Progress On Market-Setting Extension: Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. remains on track to play on his franchise tag in 2024. That one-year pact carries a value of $17.12MM, but a more lucrative long-term agreement could be on the horizon. Optimism exists Winfield and the Buccaneers could work out a deal making him the league’s highest-paid player at his position. While the veteran safety market took a notable hit ahead of this year’s free agent period, keeping Winfield in place for years to come would likely prove to be a valuable move on Tampa Bay’s part. The second-generation defensive back earned first-team All-Pro acclaim in 2023, and at the age of 25 he is positioned to be a staple of the team’s backend for years to come. GM Jason Licht is confident a deal with both Winfield and standout left tackle Tristan Wirfs can be hammered out.
  • Eagles Begin Smith Extension Talks: Like Winfield, DeVonta Smith could soon have a second contract in hand. The latter is now negotiating an Eagles extension, and optimism exists an agreement can be worked out relatively soon. Smith has been a key figure in Philadelphia’s passing game during his three-year tenure, reaching the 1,000-yard mark in each of the past two campaigns. The Eagles’ offense already features a number of lucrative commitments (from quarterback Jalen Hurts to offensive linemen Landon Dickerson, Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson as well as fellow receiver A.J. Brown). Smith – who will no doubt have his fifth-year option picked up this spring, keeping him in place through 2025 – could be in line to command a sizable raise compared to his rookie pact, though. No wideouts have been extended in their first offseason of eligibility during the era of fifth-year options, so it will be interesting to see if a Smith pact can be finalized this spring or summer.

Prospect Profile: Cooper DeJean

April 13th, 2024 at 10:10pm CST by Ely Allen

The University of Iowa has been a bit of a surprise team of late with a number of former Hawkeyes going pro and making a big impact in the NFL. Joining the ranks of Lukas Van Ness, Jack Campbell, Sam LaPorta, Tyler Linderbaum, and Tristan Wirfs, junior cornerback Cooper DeJean is expected to be the next Iowa alum selected early in an NFL draft.

DeJean grew up in Iowa as a multi-sport athlete, excelling in baseball, basketball, track, and football. At OABCIG HS in Ida Grove, Iowa, DeJean was a star athlete on the gridiron, playing wide receiver, quarterback, and defensive back while also returning punts. He earned All-State honors as a receiver his sophomore year and then led his team to undefeated, state championship seasons at quarterback the following two years.

Despite ranking as a consensus four-star recruit and a top-ten safety in the nation, according to 247sports.com, DeJean only garnered one FBS offer. His first offer came from Iowa Western CC before he earned offers from FCS programs like Illinois State, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, and Northern Iowa. He earned his first and only FBS offer from the Hawkeyes following a Junior Day visit and committed two months later.

At Iowa, DeJean played sparingly as a freshman, appearing in seven games and making one start but staying mostly off the stat sheet. His sophomore season was a different story as he exploded onto the scene. Starting all 13 games in his second season with the Hawkeyes, DeJean finished the season with second-team All-Big Ten honors after leading the team with five interceptions and 13 passes defensed while playing across from Broncos cornerback Riley Moss. DeJean demonstrated his return abilities on those interceptions, returning three of them for touchdowns. He also demonstrated his return abilities on returns, averaging 16.5 yards per return on ten punts fielded.

DeJean’s junior year at Iowa was similarly impressive. He received first-team All-Big Ten honors as both a defensive back and punt returner while also being named Big Ten DB of the Year and Big Ten PR of the Year. On 21 punt returns, DeJean had 241 return yards and a touchdown. Seeing far fewer targets, DeJean continued to produce as a cornerback with two interceptions and seven passes defensed, but a broken fibula in his right leg in November would require season-ending surgery that sidelined him for the remainder of the year and for the pre-draft process until very recently.

This past week, DeJean was able to host a private workout for scouts. He demonstrated an impressive explosiveness on his vertical and broad jump and clocked in at 4.42 seconds (unofficial) for his 40-yard dash, per Jeff Risdon of USA Today. The mini-pro day did much to prove that his recovery was progressing well and that the injury likely won’t be a factor in his rookie season.

DeJean is slightly shorter than the prototypical cornerback size (just over six feet tall), but as an athlete who was moved around to safety and hybrid roles in Iowa City, he has decent size to go along with his above average speed. His reaction time can be a hindrance at times, but he often masks it with great anticipation. His playing experience as a quarterback, receiver, and cornerback gives him a unique insight that allows him to anticipate better than most other defenders. He’s one of the better tackling cornerbacks in this draft and plays physical even when the opponent is not carrying the ball. His combination of speed and physicality allow him to use a variety of man coverage techniques with success. His lack of solid reaction time leads to the occasional overrunning of a route, and he can get grabby to avoid losing coverage, but these are rare occasions in what is usually stellar coverage.

ESPN’s Matt Miller ranks DeJean as the fourth-best cornerback and the 26th-best prospect overall. Dane Brugler of The Athletic seems to agree, slotting DeJean as the fourth-best corner and the 25th-best prospect overall. DeJean seems like a no-brainer in the mid- to late- first round. He shows versatility with experience playing all over the secondary and becomes an immediate special teams asset as a rookie. DeJean will hope to land with a team who can utilize him early and often as he attempts to join LaPorta, Linderbaum, and George Kittle as the most recent Pro Bowl Hawkeyes in 2024.

Traded NFL Draft Picks For 2024

April 10th, 2024 at 10:21pm CST by Sam Robinson

As the 2024 draft nears, numerous picks have already changed hands. A handful of picks have already been moved twice, with a few being traded three times. Multiple deals from 2021 impact this draft. Here are the 2024 picks to have been traded thus far:

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

Round 5

Round 6

Round 7

Poll: What Will Commanders Do At No. 2 Overall?

April 9th, 2024 at 10:17pm CST by Sam Robinson

When Washington last held the No. 2 overall pick, players like Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert were not realistic targets. Although both have become successful in the pros, Washington had chosen Dwayne Haskins 15th overall in 2019. That tied Ron Rivera and Co. to the best non-QB available, which led to a Chase Young investment.

As another new regime takes over in Washington, the decks are clear for a quarterback. Dan Quinn effectively confirmed the team would leave this draft with one, and while the new HC did not guarantee that player would be chosen at No. 2, the Commanders have a clear opportunity — in what is believed to be a strong QB draft — to select their next starter without giving up assets to do so. The question that will form this draft’s path comes next.

Which signal-caller should the Commanders choose? Washington has been connected to three arms with the No. 2 choice. With a Caleb Williams–Kliff Kingsbury reunion obviously appealing to the NFC East team, that is almost definitely not an option. With the Bears all but set to start the draft with the USC standout, the Commanders have other options worthy of the No. 2 slot. Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and the fast-rising J.J. McCarthy have been tied to Washington. Barring something unexpected, one of them will be the team’s long-term QB hopeful.

Maye came into last season near Williams’ level, but after a statistical step backward in 2023, the North Carolina-developed talent has generated questions. Suddenly, Maye appears a high-variance prospect. Still, Sam Howell‘s Tar Heels QB1 successor dazzled as a redshirt freshman, throwing 38 touchdown passes to seven interceptions. Maye accounted for 5,019 yards (698 rushing) in 14 games in 2022. While less prolific last year (24 TDs, nine INTs, 4,057 total yards — in 12 games), the 6-foot-4, 223-pound prospect still brings plus arm strength and upside. At 21, he is also more than two years younger than the other QB most frequently mocked to the Commanders.

Daniels, who will turn 24 before year’s end, dominated as a senior to rise up prospect rankings lists. The Arizona State transfer accounted for 4,946 yards (1,134 rushing) and finished with a 40-4 TD-INT ratio in his second and final LSU season. Daniels’ frame is a slight concern, as he weighed 210 pounds at the Combine. His playing weight may well check in south of that number. Daniels played five college seasons, capitalizing on his COVID year. Mel Kiper Jr.’s ESPN.com big board places Daniels second, while Daniel Jeremiah’s latest NFL.com rankings tab him sixth. Maye checks in sixth and fifth on those lists, respectively, adding intrigue to this Commanders call.

Prior to his Heisman offering, Daniels was not expected to be an early-first-round pick. But McCarthy made a more surprising rise. Even in the days following Michigan’s national championship win, McCarthy was viewed as maybe a mid-first-round choice. That no longer looks possible. Despite not posting numbers that rivaled Maye’s or Daniels’ offerings, the national championship-winning QB wowed evaluators at his pro day. To go along with his accuracy in a pro-like system under Jim Harbaugh, McCarthy now seems likely to be a top-six pick.

Many mocks have the 21-year-old prospect rising to the No. 4 spot via trade. A player without a 3,000-yard passing season going that high would be quite rare, though McCarthy exited several games early last year due to Wolverines dominance. He also finished his two-year starter run with a 44-9 TD-INT ratio.

McCarthy surfaced as a candidate to go No. 2 overall last month, and a recent report lent support to the Michigan product’s rise reaching this point. Neither Kiper nor Jeremiah have placed that as likely yet, though their mocks disagree on the Maye-Daniels debate. The Commanders joined the Patriots in having the largest contingent at Maye’s pro day, while Daniels is coming to Washington for a “30” visit. As of late March, Daniels was believed to be in pole position to go second to Washington, and a recent poll of NFL executives revealed a 3-2 edge to the LSU alum in the Daniels-or-May debate. Several teams will obviously have vested interests in how the Commanders proceed, with the draft taking shape based on which direction the NFC East team goes.

Washington is rebuilding. They could stockpile considerable draft capital — likely two future first-round picks — by trading down. This would likely not apply to the Giants, as they would almost definitely need to find a different gateway into the top four, but a big offer could prompt a meeting. But the Commanders have a clear path to a top QB prospect now. Waiting could introduce future hurdles into their QB equation, one that has not been stable since Kirk Cousins‘ two-franchise tag exit. And even that brought numerous headlines due to the contractual breakdown.

How will Washington proceed at 2? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this pivotal decision in the comments section.

5 Key Stories: 3/31/24 – 4/7/24

April 7th, 2024 at 4:45pm CST by Adam La Rose

With the calendar having flipped to April, the countdown to the draft continues. As teams further evaluate the top prospects in this year’s class, a number of key decisions involving established players have taken place recently. Here is a recap of the league’s top headlines from the past week:

  • Bills Deal Diggs To Texans: Stefon Diggs saw his four-year Bills run come to an end with a deal sending him to the Texans being worked out in short order. Buffalo will receive a 2025 second-round pick in return for the four-time Pro Bowler and two Day 3 selections. Diggs, 30, has been the subject of controversy and speculation over time, although Bills GM Brandon Beane planned on retaining him for the 2024 campaign prior to talks with Houston picking up. The Texans now boast a six-time 1,000-yard receiver on an offense which already had high expectations ahead of the coming season, although the team has notably removed the post-2024 years on Diggs’ deal. Carrying a dead cap charge of over $31MM and now dealing with another receiver departure, meanwhile, the Bills will be a team to watch with respect to a pass-catching addition in the draft.
  • Panthers Extend Brown: The Panthers’ negotiations with Derrick Brown on a lucrative new deal produced a four-year, $96MM agreement. The former top-10 pick thus became the latest young defensive tackle to earn a monster second contract, securing $41MM fully guaranteed in the process. Brown earned his first career Pro Bowl nod last season, and the departures of several key defenders – including Brian Burns – will add even further to his importance on Carolina’s defense. Days away from his 26th birthday, Brown continued ascending as a run defender in 2023 (103 tackles), although his career has included marginal sack production compared to his positional peers. New general manager Dan Morgan is nevertheless confident the Auburn product can remain an anchor along the Panthers’ defensive interior for the foreseeable future.
  • Mailata Lands New Eagles Deal: The Eagles have already given guard Landon Dickerson a record-setting extension but the 2024 offseason has also seen another major financial investment up front. Left tackle Jordan Mailata landed a three-year, $66MM extension despite being on the books through 2025. The converted rugby player will now earn an average of $22MM per season, a figure which ranks fourth amongst all left tackles. Mailata, 27, has been a foundational member of the Eagles’ O-line for the past four seasons and he will remain in place for years to come as a result of this agreement. Philadelphia’s offensive front will look different in the middle after center Jason Kelce’s retirement; the blindside will have a familiar face in 2024 and beyond, though.
  • Dugger Replaces Transition Tag With Patriots Contract: The Patriots kept Kyle Dugger from reaching the market by placing the rarely-used transition tag on him last month. The sides remained free to negotiate a long-term deal, though, and efforts on that front produced a four-year agreement. The versatile defensive back will receive up to $66MM on his new contract, including $32.5MM guaranteed. New England has managed to retain a number of pending free agents this offseason, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Dugger, 28, has proven to be a high-end producer in the run game throughout his four-year career, although his work in coverage has led to less-than stellar evaluations. As the team transitions to new head coach Jerod Mayo, he will remain a focal point of the New England’s secondary in 2024 and beyond.
  • Chiefs’ Rice Set To Face Charges? Rashee Rice was involved in a hit-and-run incident, during which six vehicles crashed. Two cars were believed to be street racing, and the Chiefs wideout was driving one of them before fleeing the scene. As a result, Rice’s lawyer expects charges to be filed in the near future, though the 23-year-old has cooperated with police’s investigation and he plans on covering the victims’ expenses generated by the accident. NFL discipline does not require legal action being taken, but the league may very well wait until after any charges are laid before proceeding with a punishment. Rice is currently on track to play a large role in Kansas City’s receiving corps for 2024 after enjoying a strong rookie campaign.

Revisiting 2021 First-Round QB Picks

March 31st, 2024 at 10:02pm CST by Adam La Rose

With the 2024 draft approaching, this year’s crop of quarterbacks will increasingly become the center of attention around the NFL. Acquiring rookie passers is viewed as the surest route to long-term success, and the urgency teams feel to generate quick rebuilds fuels aggressive moves aimed at acquiring signal-callers deemed to have high upside.

Each class is different, though, and past drafts can offer a cautionary tale about the downfalls of being overly optimistic regarding a young quarterback. In the case of the 2021 draft, five signal-callers were selected on Day 1, and to varying extents things have not gone according to plan in each case. Three quarterbacks (quite possibly four, depending on how the immediate future plays out) have been traded, while the other has not lived up to expectations.

Here is a breakdown of all five QBs taken in the first round three years ago:

Trevor Lawrence (No. 1 overall, Jaguars)

Lawrence entered the league with enormous expectations after his high school and college success, having been touted as a generational prospect. The Clemson product (like the rest of the Jaguars) endured a forgettable season under head coach Urban Meyer as a rookie, however. The latter’s firing paved the way for the arrival of Doug Pederson, known to be a QB-friendly coach. Lawrence improved in 2022, earning a Pro Bowl nod and helping guide the team to the divisional round of the postseason.

This past campaign saw the 24-year-old battle multiple nagging injuries, and he was forced to miss a game for the first time in his career. Jacksonville failed to find a rhythm on offense throughout the year, and a late-season slump left the team out of the playoffs altogether after a division title seemed to be in hand. In two seasons under Pederson, Lawrence has totaled 46 touchdown passes and 22 interceptions – figures which fall short of what the pair were thought to be capable of while working together. Nonetheless, no changes under center will be forthcoming.

Following in line with his previous stance on the matter, general manager Trent Baalke confirmed last month extension talks with Lawrence have begun. The former college national champion will be on his rookie contract through 2025 once the Jaguars exercise his fifth-year option, but megadeals finalized in a QB’s first year of extension eligibility have become commonplace around the NFL. Lawrence profiles as Jacksonville’s answer under center for years to come, something of particular significance given the team’s past struggles to find a long-term producer at the position.

Four young passers inked second contracts averaging between $51MM and $55MM per year last offseason. Lawrence is positioned to be the next in line for a similar deal, though his generally pedestrian stats could hinder his leverage to a degree. At a minimum, he will see an AAV much higher than that of his 2025 option ($25.66MM) once his next contract is in place.

Zach Wilson (No. 2, Jets)

The Jets’ decision to take Sam Darnold third overall in 2018 did not prove fruitful, and in short order the team was in need of another young passer. Wilson was immediately installed as the team’s starter, but in both his rookie campaign and his follow-up season he struggled in a number of categories. A lack of improvement regarding accuracy and interception rates made it clear a more proven commodity would be required for a team internally viewed as being a quarterback away from contention.

That drove the decision to trade for Aaron Rodgers last offseason, a move aimed at relying on the future Hall of Famer in the short term while allowing Wilson to develop as a backup. Four snaps into the season, though, Rodgers’ Achilles tear upended that plan and thrust Wilson back into a starting role. Playing behind a struggling (and injury-marred) offensive line, the BYU alum guided an offense which finished 29th in scoring and 31st in yardage. In the wake of the poor showing, owner Woody Johnson publicly disparaged Wilson in vowing to upgrade the QB2 spot.

With Tyrod Taylor now in place (and Rodgers aiming to continue playing into his 40s), Wilson’s New York days are believed to be numbered. The Jets have given him permission to seek a trade, which comes as little surprise given the team’s decision to bench him on a few occasions over the past two seasons. A fresh start for both parties could be beneficial, although value on a deal will come well short of the capital used to draft him. Offers for the 24-year-old have nevertheless been received, so a deal could be struck in relatively short order.

Once that takes place, New York will have once again cut bait with a failed QB project. Wilson could follow Darnold’s path in taking on a backup gig before receiving another starting opportunity with a new team. For the time being, though, he will aim to find the ideal supporting role in an attempt to rebuild his value.

Trey Lance (No. 3, 49ers)

Aggressively pursuing a Jimmy Garoppolo upgrade, San Francisco moved up the board at a substantial cost. The 49ers sent the Dolphins a package including three first-round picks and a third-rounder, banking on Lance’s athletic upside. After a year sitting behind Garoppolo, the North Dakota State product was positioned to take over in 2022.

However, a Week 2 ankle fracture cut Lance’s season was cut short; this proved to mark an end to his San Francisco tenure. In all, Lance made just four regular-season starts with the 49ers, as the 2022 season unintentionally resulted in Brock Purdy taking over the starter’s role. The emergence of the former Mr. Irrelevant paved the way for Lance to be traded, but his injury history and inconsistent play when on the field limited his trade market. The Cowboys won a brief bidding war, acquiring Lance for a fourth-round pick.

Lance did not see the field in his first season as a Cowboy, but Dallas will keep him in the fold for the 2024 campaign. He will thus be in line to serve as Dak Prescott’s backup for a year; the latter is not under contract for 2025, but he remains firmly in the team’s plans. Unless Prescott were to depart in free agency next offseason, a path to a No. 1 role does not currently exist for Lance.

The 23-year-old could nevertheless still be viewed as a worthwhile developmental prospect given his age and athletic traits. The Lance acquisition has clearly proven to be a mistake on the 49ers’ part, though, especially given the success the team has had without him. What-ifs will remain a part of this 49ers chapter’s legacy (particularly if the current core cannot get over the Super Bowl hump) considering the substantial price paid to move up the board and the draft picks not available in subsequent years as a result.

Justin Fields (No. 11, Bears)

Like San Francisco, Chicago did not wait on the chance of having a top QB prospect fall down the draft board. The Bears moved two first-round picks, along fourth- and fifth-rounders, to move ahead of the Patriots and add a presumed long-term answer under center. Fields saw playing time early enough (10 starts as a rookie), but his performance that year left plenty of room for improvement.

A head coaching change from Matt Nagy to Matt Eberflus also brought about the arrival of a new offensive coordinator (Luke Getsy). Fields did not make the expected jump as a passer in the new system, averaging less than 150 yards per game through the air and taking 55 sacks. He became only the third quarterback to record over 1,000 yards on the ground in a season, though, showcasing his rushing ability. The Ohio State product made only incremental progress in 2023, despite an improved offensive line and the trade acquisition of wideout D.J. Moore.

As a result, speculation steadily intensified that general manager Ryan Poles – who was not a member of the regime which drafted Fields – would move on from the 25-year-old. Fields received endorsements from Eberflus, Poles and others in the building, but the team decided to move on and pave the way for (in all likelihood) Caleb Williams being drafted first overall. A conditional sixth-round pick sent Fields to the Steelers, his preferred destination.

In Pittsburgh, Fields is slated to begin as the backup Russell Wilson. Both passers face uncertain futures beyond 2024, especially with the former not on track to have his fifth-year option exercised. Fields could play his way into the starter’s role in relatively short order given the 10-year age gap between he and Wilson, who flamed out in Denver. That, in turn, could see his market value jump higher than that of the other non-Lawrence members of this class given their respective situations.

Mac Jones (No. 15, Patriots)

Drafted to become the Tom Brady successor of both the short- and long-term future, Jones was immediately installed as New England’s starter. Coming off a national title with Alabama, he appeared to set the stage for a long Patriots tenure by earning a Pro Bowl nod and finishing second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. Nothing went according to plan for team or player beyond that point, however.

Jones saw Josh McDaniels depart in the 2022 offseason, leaving head coach Bill Belichick to hand the offensive reins over to Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. That move resulted in widespread struggles on offense, and Jones regressed. Following a 2021 playoff berth, the inability to venture back to the postseason the following year led to increased speculation about the team’s future under center. That became particularly true amid reports of tension between Jones and Belichick.

With both coach and quarterback under pressure to rebound, optimism emerged when the Patriots hired Bill O’Brien as OC. That move did not produce the desired results, though, and by the end of the year Jones was benched in favor of Bailey Zappe. With a Belichick-less regime set to start over at the quarterback spot, the former was dealt to the Jaguars for a sixth-round pick.

Jones has publicly stated the deal (which sent him to his hometown team) was a mutual parting of ways. A backup gig behind Lawrence could allow the pocket passer to regain some of his confidence generated by his rookie success, but his showings over the past two seasons will no doubt give teams considerable pause with respect to viewing him as a starter down the road. Jones’ athletic profile is also a less favorable one than that of Wilson, Lance and especially Fields, something which could further consign him to QB2 duties for the foreseeable future.

Four quarterbacks are considered locks to hear their names called on Day 1 of the 2024 draft, one in which each of the top three picks may very well once again be used on signal-callers. Other QB prospects are also in contention for Round 1 consideration, meaning they and their new teams will be subject to considerable scrutiny. To put it lightly, all parties involved will hope the top of this year’s class pans out better than that of its 2021 counterpart.

5 Key Stories: 3/24/24 – 3/31/24

March 31st, 2024 at 2:14pm CST by Adam La Rose

Teams continue to make adjustments to their rosters in advance of the upcoming draft, something which has produced a few notable moves in recent days. The recent league meetings also produced a number of noteworthy developments. Here is a quick recap of this past week’s top stories from around the NFL:

  • Eagles, Jets Agree To Reddick Trade: The Eagles’ edge rush group faced a number of questions this offseason, owing in large part to the uncertain status of Haason Reddick. The two-time Pro Bowler was traded to the Jets with one year remaining on his contract, although a new deal could be coming in short order. In exchange, Philadelphia will receive a conditional 2026 third-round pick; the selection could become a second-rounder if the 29-year-old logs a snap share above 67.5% and records at least 10 sacks. The Eagles signed Bryce Huff to a lucrative free agent deal, casting further doubt on Reddick’s future. The latter will now join a strong Jets defensive front and either secure a new big-money pact or set himself up as one of the top members of the 2025 free agent class.
  • NFL Approves New Kickoff Format: Among the rule changes approved by the league’s owners, the most notable one was the decision to green-light a dramatically new alignment for kickoffs. The proposal (which passed by a vote of 29-3) will see the NFL essentially adopt – on a one-year, trial basis – the system which was in place in the XFL over the past two years. The change is aimed at staving off the steep decline in kick returns the NFL has seen in recent years, punctuated by a Super Bowl which included all 13 kickoffs resulting in a touchback. The league also agreed to push back the 2024 trade deadline by seven days; it will now fall on the Tuesday following Week 9.
  • Jaguars Extend Oluokun: Jacksonville added Foye Oluokun as a free agent in 2022, and the team has elected to keep him the fold for the foreseeable future. The 28-year-old inked a four-year extension which has a maximum value of $48MM and includes $22.5MM fully guaranteed. Oluokun – who has led the NFL in tackles twice in his career – is now under contract through 2028. The ex-Falcon ranked fourth in the league in terms of annual average value amongst linebackers on his previous contract ($15MM). That figure will be lowered via this extension, but it ensures Oluokun will remain a key member of Jacksonville’s defense for years to come while providing financial security relative to the remaining term on his old pact.
  • Browns Set To Extend Stefanski, Berry: Changes on the sidelines and in the front office have been commonplace for the Browns, but that trend is set to come to an end with respect to head coach Kevin Stefanski and general manager Andrew Berry. Both members of that pair are in line to receive contract extensions. A recent report indicated that would be the case, and with only one year remaining on their current deals a re-up would be sensible. Stefanski has earned Coach of the Year honors twice during his four-year run in Cleveland, helping lead the team to the postseason in 2020 and ’23. Berry’s tenure (which will of course be defined by the blockbuster trade acquisition of Deshaun Watson, one which has to date not gone as planned) has included a number of savvy veteran and draft additions. Both staffers should be in place for years to come once their new deals are signed.
  • Clowney Signs With Panthers: Continuing his career arc of short-term stints around the league, Jadeveon Clowney has once again found a new team. The former first overall pick signed a two-year, $20MM deal with the Panthers following the success of his one-and-done Ravens tenure. A new deal with Baltimore (as well as one with the Jets) seemed to be a possibility, but the Rock Hill, South Carolina native and former Gamecock ultimately elected to join a Panthers team which no longer has Brian Burns or hybrid linebacker Frankie Luvu in the fold. Clowney matched his career high with 9.5 sacks last season, and a repeat of that performance in 2024 would help Carolina’s rebuilding efforts on defense. It could also help the 31-year-old secure a long-term future in Carolina after spending time with five teams over the past six seasons.

5 Key Stories: 3/17/23 – 3/24/23

March 24th, 2024 at 4:32pm CST by Adam La Rose

With free agency having slowed down considerably compared to the opening days of the league year, attention will increasingly turn toward the draft. The first week between the two major offseason checkpoints saw a number of notable developments, though. Here is a quick recap of the league’s top stories from the past seven days:

  • Chiefs Deal Sneed To Titans: Even before L’Jarius Sneed received the franchise tag, it was expected he would be traded away by the Chiefs at some point. The defending champions made Chris Jones a higher financial priority, and he has a new long-term deal in place. Shortly after reports emerged detailing the hurdles a Sneed contract represented to a Titans acquisition, the veteran corner was indeed dealt to Tennessee. Kansas City received a 2025 third-round pick as compensation, while the teams swapped 2024 seventh-rounders. Upon arrival, Sneed inked a $19MM-per-year extension including $55MM guaranteed to take the place of his tag. The 27-year-old will thus find himself near the top of the cornerback market for the foreseeable future in his new home, while the Chiefs will move forward with their incumbent secondary starters and avoid a Sneed free agent departure in 2025.
  • Sutton’s Arrest Warrant Prompts Lions Release: On March 7, an arrest warrant was issued for cornerback Cameron Sutton. One day after that went public, the Lions elected to release Sutton with a post-June 1 designation. The 29-year-old is wanted on a charge of domestic battery by strangulation stemming from an incident in Lutz, Florida. Police are still unable to locate Sutton, who signed a three-year deal with Detroit last offseason. He remained a full-time starter during his debut campaign, but the team (which has already made multiple CB additions this offseason) has a vacancy to fill in the secondary. The guaranteed money on Sutton’s pact will be voided, and Detroit will see $1.5MM in cap savings for this season as a result of the move.
  • Browns Extend Jeudy: Jerry Jeudy has yet to play a game for the Browns, but the former first-round receiver already has a three-year extension in place worth up to $58MM. Jeudy is now on the books through 2027, and he will receive $41MM guaranteed at signing. The 24-year-old’s play to date has not matched expectations given his draft stock, but the Browns will attempt to maximize his potential with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Amari Cooper has proven to be an effective lead receiver in Cleveland, but he is under contract for only one more year at the moment. Jeudy will be in place as the team’s No. 2 wideout now and into the future regardless of what happens with Cooper.
  • Cardinals, Chargers Open To Trading Down: In consecutive days, both Monti Ossenfort (Cardinals) and Joe Hortiz (Chargers) publicly stated they are willing to trade the fourth and fifth selections in next month’s draft, respectively. Quarterbacks are widely expected to come off the board with the top three picks, and Chicago, Washington and New England are set to retain their places in the order. As such, Arizona and Los Angeles are the top targets for teams looking to maneuver up the order, likely to add the next-best quarterback available. The Cardinals and Chargers each have a need at receiver, and Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers project as the best non-QBs in the 2024 class. It would come as no surprise if either team stayed put to select their preferred wideout, but interest in a swap will no doubt pick up over the coming weeks.
  • Williams Chooses Jets: Mike Williams found himself on the market after being cut by the Chargers in a cost-shedding move. The veteran deep threat quickly drew interest from a number of teams, but his Jets visit yielded agreement on a one-year deal. Williams will earn a base value of $10MM, but another $5MM is available via incentives; the prove-it nature of the pact comes as little surprise since the 29-year-old will be coming off a torn ACL in 2024. The Jets will aim to have a healthy Aaron Rodgers under center next season, but upgrades at the receiver spot were a top offseason priority. If Williams can return to his previous 1,000-yard form, his addition will prove to be effective and his 2025 free agent value will see a notable spike.

Prospect Profile: Michael Penix Jr.

March 23rd, 2024 at 9:18pm CST by Ely Allen

At this point, it’s starting to become extremely clear who we should be expecting to see as the first player and quarterback taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft next month. We also know UNC quarterback Drake Maye is fighting off LSU Heisman winner Jayden Daniels as QB2 of the draft and that Michigan national champion J.J. McCarthy and Oregon’s Bo Nix are enjoying their own late surges towards the first round. One other quarterback seems to polarize more than the rest, as Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. continues to work to prove himself as a top football player.

As a three-star recruit out of Tampa Bay Tech HS (Florida), Penix struggled to stand out in the talent-laden state of Florida. He quickly picked up local offers from Group of 5 schools like USF and FAU before attending a camp at Tennessee and earning his first Power 5 offer. 10 months later, after receiving only a few other offers, Penix committed to the Volunteers. After the school’s firing of Butch Jones, the head coach to whom he had committed, Penix decommitted, taking the week before an early National Signing Day to consider his options before ultimately signing to attend Indiana.

Penix would redshirt his freshman year with the Hoosiers, appearing in only three games before tearing his ACL. After returning from his injury, Penix entered his redshirt freshman year as the starter, winning the job over incumbent quarterback Peyton Ramsey. In six starts, Penix led the Hoosiers to a 5-1 start to the season while completing 68.8 percent of his pass attempts for 1,394 yards and 10 touchdowns with four interceptions. He also added 119 yards on the ground for two touchdowns. Unfortunately, Penix’s season ended there after a sternoclavicular joint sprain and clavicle fracture on his non-throwing, right shoulder would keep him out for the remainder of the season.

Penix would return in 2020 as the starter once again and once again lead the team to a 5-1 start. His completion percentage suffered as the team leaned more heavily on his arm, but he would increase his production to 1,645 passing yards and 14 touchdowns before suffering a second torn ACL to end his third season. In his final year as the Indiana starter, Penix looked like a shell of his former self. The Hoosiers started the season 2-3 as Penix threw for 939 yards, four touchdowns, and seven interceptions in five starts while only completing 53.7 percent of his passes. His time in Bloomington ended, once again, with his fourth season-ending injury, this one a dislocated joint in his throwing shoulder.

Instead of laying down to watch his football career die, Penix opted to hop into the transfer portal. Thanks to his utilized redshirt and the extra year of eligibility granted to players in school during the 2020 COVID-19 impacted season, the lefty passer still had two years of eligibility left, and finally, in Seattle, Penix was offered the opportunity to play for a contender. Penix became the starter at Washington and immediately led the Huskies to a winning season following their 4-8 2021 campaign.

At Washington, Penix rediscovered his accuracy, completing just over 65 percent of his passes in both years with the team. During the team’s 2022 campaign, Penix led the country in passing yards per game en route to becoming the school’s all-time single-season passing leader with 4,641 yards while scoring 31 touchdowns through the air and four more on the ground. He followed that up with a 14-1 season that would take Washington to the National Championship game, ultimately falling to McCarthy’s Wolverines. Still, in 2023, Penix broke his own single-season record with 4,903 passing yards (thanks to two extra games) and passed for 36 touchdowns while rushing for three more. He led the FBS in passing yards, but even with his extra games, he also led the country in passing yards per game for the second season in a row.

Now, finally out of eligibility, Penix is ready to head to the NFL following a successful college career. He brings an aggressive approach to the passing game with an ability to deliver quick strikes and throw competitive balls downfield for his receivers to win. He doesn’t lack confidence, showing a willingness to make every throw at every level of the field but could still stand to improve in some of those areas, namely intermediate passes across the middle of the field. This can lead to a few missed passes and, while he did post impressive completion percentages, ranking 28th in the country at 65.4 in 2023, his fellow draft candidates, USC’s Caleb Williams (12th at 68.6), Daniels (seventh at 72.2), McCarthy (sixth at 72.3), and Nix (first at 77.4), all showed better accuracy this past year.

Other nitpicks on Penix revolve around inconsistent mechanics and an inability to sense pressure (perhaps a symptom of left-handedness in a right-hander’s game), but the biggest areas of concern surround his health. Before transferring, Penix suffered four season-ending injuries in as many years. Many placed the utmost importance on his medical evaluations at the NFL scouting combine, and Ian Rapoport of NFL Network delivered the good news that his medical testing “went well,” claiming that “any medical questions that Penix had seem to be kind of pushed a little back under the radar.”

With that, let the speculation begin. The claims of Penix’s polarization come from the fact that mock drafts place him anywhere from No. 8 overall to the second and third round. Both ESPN’s Mel Kiper and Dane Brugler of The Athletic rank Penix as the draft’s sixth-best passing prospect, following the five mentioned above. Both pundits also have him slipping into the second round of the draft, with both citing injuries as a main concern. Perhaps, they believe that his combine clearance was more sweeping his injury potential under the rug than declaring it a non-issue.

Still, it only takes one front office to disagree. The consensus seems to be that Penix has first-round potential in his game, but he has to stay on the field in order to show it. If any team sees his 28 straight healthy games at Washington and feels confident about his health, or if any team feels confident in their offensive line’s ability to keep Penix on the field, there’s absolutely a possibility that we hear his name called on Day 1 of the draft, especially if we see a run on quarterbacks early. If not, there are several teams with temporary or non-cemented options at quarterback that could easily take a flyer on Penix in the second round.

The Bears, Commanders, Patriots, and Broncos have been seen as teams obviously looking to select a passer in the first round, but the Giants, Vikings, and Raiders could also be tempted. New York has never showed much commitment to Daniel Jones and could be interested in drafting his heir apparent. The Vikings brought in Sam Darnold, who has never spent a full season as a starter, so they may be interested in a young passer to mold. Las Vegas brought in Gardner Minshew to compete with Aidan O’Connell but may be interested in a passer with more potential upside. Also keep an eye on teams like the Seahawks and Rams, who have aging veterans and may want to bring in a rookie to compete with their other young, developing backups.

There’s no limit of possibilities for where we may see Penix go in late-April. He may be the league’s first left-handed quarterback taken in the first round since Tua Tagovailoa, or he could free fall into the second or third round. There are plenty more mock drafts to come between now and then around the internet, so keep an eye on the consistent rise and fall of Penix’s draft stock in the weeks between now and the draft.

2024 Top 50 NFL Free Agents

March 7th, 2024 at 11:03pm CST by Sam Robinson

With the franchise tag application deadline in the rearview mirror, we have a clearer picture of who will be available in free agency. Barring 11th-hour deals, starting quarterbacks and a future Hall of Fame defensive tackle will drive the class in the 32nd year of full-fledged free agency in the NFL.

In addition to the Kirk Cousins–Baker Mayfield–Chris Jones trio, interior offensive linemen will cash in as part of this year’s crop. Last year’s tackle class was a bit deeper; this year, O-line dollars figure to be funneled inside.

The NFL’s legal tampering period, which gives players a window to speak with other teams and reach unofficial agreements, begins at 11am CT on March 11. The new league year opens two days later, though much of the frenzy will take place during the tampering period.

This list ranks free agents by earning potential, with guaranteed money serving as the general measuring stick. This is one of the great running back classes in free agency annals, but even though some of the RBs’ accomplishments far eclipse many of the players ranked above them, the position’s market has absorbed numerous hits. Older standouts, including potential Hall of Famers, not having the earning power they once did also factors into this equation.

Here is this year’s PFR top 50 free agents list, along with potential landing spots for each player.

1. Kirk Cousins, QB. Age in Week 1: 36

Cousins hitting free agency in his prime six years ago brought countless rumors about his value and future. Quarterback movement was less common then. Cousins made that foray count, scoring a landmark deal from the Vikings – a fully guaranteed three-year, $84MM pact. We are back here again because Cousins and the Vikings could not agree on a fourth extension, with the sides’ 2023 talks breaking down in part because Minnesota refused to provide guarantees into a third year. Cousins is coming off an Achilles tear, but given the need here, the 13th-year veteran is back atop a free agent value list.

Thanks to Cousins’ two-franchise tag path out of Washington in the late 2010s, the Vikings could not realistically tag their quarterback. No one has been tagged a third time since the 2006 CBA made doing so prohibitive. While the Vikings and Cousins have each expressed interest in a reunion, time is running out due to the structure of Cousins’ third Vikings contract. And a clear threat has emerged.

If Minnesota cannot re-sign Cousins before the start of the 2024 league year, $28.5MM in dead money will move onto the team’s 2024 cap sheet. Considering the dead cap awaiting and the Vikings holding the No. 11 overall draft slot, the team is in crunch time at quarterback. Minnesota will need to decide on perhaps one final contract with one of the NFL’s all-time financial mavens, and with Justin Jefferson interested in the team’s decision with the quarterback that helped him to a historic start, the NFC North club is navigating a layered process.

Never confused with a top-tier quarterback, Cousins has been in the league’s upper third for much of his career. The former Washington fourth-rounder had thrown 18 TD passes compared to five INTs before the Week 8 Achilles tear shut him down, finishing this productive stretch with Jefferson sidelined three games. QBR slotted Cousins seventh last season but rehabbing this injury in his mid-30s certainly will not make teams feel great about the offers required to win this derby. Still, this is the cost of doing business with above-average QBs.

Cousins has all of one Pro Bowl as a non-alternate, coming in 2022. Illustrating the value this position brings and Cousins having the upper hand on the Vikings in negotiations thanks to the fully guaranteed deal he landed in 2018, the Michigan State alum has made more than $231MM in his career. That number will almost definitely balloon past $300MM by 2025. Cousins has signed deals worth $28MM, $33MM and $35MM per year. Although Derek Carr scored a $37.5MM-AAV Saints pact and a practical guarantee of $70MM, Cousins’ consistency and financial shrewdness may still top that even near the end of his mid-30s.

Only Fran Tarkenton and Tommy Kramer have served as Vikings QB1s longer than Cousins, but Minnesota also must begin planning for the future. The team has seen Cousins and Jefferson form a dominant connection; Minnesota has also won just one playoff game since signing Cousins, failing to reach the postseason in three of his healthy years. If the Vikings pass and set their sights on the draft, who will make the payment?

Facing incomprehensible dead money due to the Russell Wilson extension going bust, the Broncos could certainly use Cousins as a bridge. Denver’s dead cap — $85MM over the next two years once Wilson is designated a post-June 1 cut — will make this signing difficult. The Broncos bowed out of the Cousins sweepstakes six years ago, signing Case Keenum; they may not have the resources to make a competitive bid now.

Cousins-to-Atlanta is producing enough smoke it is time to closely monitor this relocation; this reality would put Terry Fontenot’s skill-position draftees in better position to thrive, after Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder held them back. While Justin Fields odds pointed the Bears QB to Atlanta last week, it looks like the Falcons prefer a proving passing option. Hiring ex-Rams QBs coach Zac Robinson as OC, the Falcons appear the Vikings’ top threat if Cousins hits the tampering period unsigned.

Best fits: Falcons, Vikings, Broncos

2. Baker Mayfield, QB. Age in Week 1: 29

Were this an accomplishments-based ranking, Mayfield would not sniff this tier. Starting QBs in their primes get paid, as they rarely reach the market. Mayfield is not exactly a set-it-and-forget-it option, as this era has featured less QB patience than previous NFL periods. But he is being linked in the $35MM-per-year range. That marks a staggering transformation from 2023, when one team was willing to make the former No. 1 pick its starter favorite.

Mayfield turned down slightly more lucrative offers to vie against only Kyle Trask — after the Bucs passed on Will Levis, whom they brought in for a “30” visit — last year. The bet on a return to form in Dave Canales’ system paid off, though it is important to note how far the ex-Browns QB1 fell over the previous two seasons. Rumblings of a franchise-level extension — in the $30MM-plus-AAV range, when that number meant more — surrounded Mayfield’s 2021 offseason, which followed the ’20 Browns nearly upsetting the Chiefs in the divisional round. That remains Cleveland’s lone Round 2 playoff run since 1989. Had Mayfield built on the progress he showed in 2020, an alternate NFL reality — in which the Falcons have Deshaun Watson and the Bucs pursue a different post-Tom Brady stopgap — probably ensues. But the ’21 season tanked Mayfield’s stock, which had farther to fall in 2022.

An early-season injury to Mayfield’s non-throwing shoulder plagued him in 2021, and after the Browns’ unrefusable Watson offer led Mayfield to Carolina, horrid form keyed a last-place QBR finish in 2022. Mayfield’s 2023 QBR (54.3) trails his 2020 number (65.5), and the Bucs went from 3-0 to 4-7 to the divisional round. This rollercoaster ride provided a nice microcosm of Mayfield’s pro career, which also involved a steep 2019 dip due largely to Freddie Kitchens being overmatched as a head coach. But the inconsistency should matter here, to a degree.

If the Bucs let Mayfield hit the market, the statuses of Cousins and Justin Fields will be intertwined with his as teams without top-three draft real estate determine their options. It is not out of the question clubs could view Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew or Ryan Tannehill at a far lower price as a more cost-effective option than Mayfield. The Giants faced same question last year; was there a team willing to go to the $40MM-per-year place had Big Blue let Daniel Jones hit free agency? The Jones contract has likely come up in Mayfield negotiations, complicating the Bucs’ decision.

Mayfield established new career-high marks in TD passes (28) and yards (4,044). He also limited his INTs to 10 in Canales’ offense. The Bucs gave Mayfield input in their OC search, which produced ex-Rams OC Liam Coen, providing an obvious signal they do not intend to let him get away. The Bucs just made the playoffs with Brady’s $35.1MM void years-driven dead money on their payroll. While Mayfield’s deal would be backloaded, Tampa Bay would not see too much change here with Mayfield set to go from a $4MM base salary to likely beyond $30MM.

Geno Smith’s three-year, $75MM deal should serve as Mayfield’s floor, as it is the veteran-QB1 basement presently. But Smith agreed to Seahawks-friendly terms. A pay-as-you-go contract is unlikely here, with the Jones and Derek Carr deals respectively producing practical guarantees of $81MM and $70MM. Mayfield is also four years younger than Smith. Mayfield might not match Jones and Carr for AAV, but the Bucs will need to pay him more per year than they did Brady ($25MM).

Passing would make the Bucs start over from a poor draft slot to do so (No. 25), arming Mayfield’s camp with more leverage. The Vikings being unable to complete a deal with Cousins could make them a Mayfield suitor, and while the Patriots have quite a few connections to the former Heisman winner — including Eliot Wolf and OC Alex Van Pelt — it does not make too much sense for the Pats taking this route given the shape of their roster. With Fields and Cousins in the mix and the Steelers setting their sights lower, Mayfield’s options are still somewhat limited. That will play into the Bucs’ hands; both sides need to be careful here.

Best fits: Buccaneers, Falcons, Vikings

3. Chris Jones, IDL. Age in Week 1: 30

The Chiefs secured dynasty status after trading Tyreek Hill and, barring some playoff surges, missing on the Frank Clark contract. They have not paid cornerbacks during this stretch, highlighting the importance of Steve Spagnuolo’s centerpiece defender. (L’Jarius Sneed’s franchise tag, coming with heavy trade rumors, points to the Chiefs going in this direction again.) Patrick Mahomes and, especially over the past year, Travis Kelce receive most of the attention. Jones has been the clear third Chiefs pillar during this period, racking up five All-Pro honors and being the only pure defensive tackle in the sack era (1982-present) to record two 15-sack seasons.

Jones has also been durable, missing more than two games in a season just twice and suiting up for all but one contest during Kansas City’s back-to-back Super Bowl-winning campaigns. That makes the Chiefs’ defensive struggles in Week 1, during Jones’ holdout, notable. Rightfully asking for money in the Aaron Donald neighborhood, Jones bet on himself rather than accept a Chiefs offer that placed him on the same plane as less proven DTs — in the second tier that formed thanks to 2023’s Jeffery Simmons, Quinnen Williams, Daron Payne and Dexter Lawrence extensions. With Nick Bosa raising the defender ceiling to $34MM per year in September, Jones reaching $30MM AAV is in play on the open market. The Chiefs’ top priority is preventing Jones reaching free agency.

Kansas City franchise-tagged Jones in 2020, which always made a 2024 tag – at 120% of his pre-restructure 2023 salary, pushing the total past $32MM — unrealistic. Although Jones has said on multiple occasions he wants to stay in Missouri, the Chiefs’ negotiations last year created the risk of losing one of the best players in franchise history. From a pass-rushing standpoint, Jones has surpassed Donald (the current Donald version, that is) during the Chiefs’ back-to-back Super Bowl-winning years. He is three years younger than the Rams all-time great. Donald needed to threaten retirement to secure his landmark raise at 31; Jones reaching the open market healthy — in a year when a record cap spike occurred — effectively maximizes his leverage.

Javon Hargrave scored a $21MM-per-year pact; it took only $40MM fully guaranteed for the 49ers to land him. From an accomplishments and impact standpoint, Jones’ free agency is closer to Reggie White’s than Hargrave. White was 31 when his 1993 free agency tour commenced. Albert Haynesworth (2009) and Ndamukong Suh (2015) scored record-setting deals when they hit the market. Jones probably will not top Bosa’s AAV, but eclipsing the current DT guarantee high (Williams’ $66MM) seems likely.

The Chiefs have shown they can get by after losing corners; they have not shown they can win without Jones, who has made countless pivotal plays while rushing from inside and outside. The most recent led to a 49ers overtime field goal, which set up a championship-cementing Chiefs drive. Kansas City will need to make a monster offer to keep Jones off the market, but at this point, the champs must prepare to outbid other teams as their future Hall of Fame DT is less than a week away from testing the market.

Bears GM Ryan Poles was in Kansas City when the Chiefs drafted Jones in the 2016 second round, and Chicago is likely to restart its QB contract clock via a Caleb Williams pick soon. The Texans also have a rookie-QB contract (and Will Anderson on a rookie pact) around which Jones’ guaranteed years could be structured. With budgets increasing as of the recent cap news, teams could enter this bidding for one of the best defenders to ever hit free agency.

Best fits: Chiefs, Texans, Bears

4. Christian Wilkins, IDL. Age in Week 1: 28

The stars have aligned for Wilkins. From the Dolphins’ cap status to Justin Madubuike being franchise-tagged and the rest of the high-level D-tackles from Wilkins’ draft class being extended last year, the charismatic Clemson alum is about to reap the rewards of hitting free agency at this point. Excelling against the run and coming off his best pass-rushing season, the five-year veteran is likely to land a deal in the ballpark of those given to the rest of the 2019 first-round DT contingent. If the Chiefs re-sign Chris Jones, suddenly the player the Dolphins shied away from extending is the market’s top D-tackle prize.

Negotiations dragged on last summer, and other deals set the market. The Commanders extended Daron Payne in March, while the Titans reached an agreement with Jeffery Simmons in April. Dexter Lawrence followed in May, and the Jets hammered out their Quinnen Williams re-up just before training camp. Each pact was worth between $22.5-$24MM per year, creating a new second tier behind Aaron Donald’s outlier accord, and brought between $46-$47.9MM guaranteed at signing. This is a narrow range, making it a bit odd nothing was finalized. The Dolphins offered a top-10 DT salary, but that falls short of the Payne-Simmons-Lawrence-Williams range. It is possible the Dolphins also used 2019 first-round DT Ed Oliver’s deal, which came in lower ($17MM AAV, $24.5MM guaranteed at signing) as a comp in these talks. That would naturally introduce a complication.

A September rumor suggested the Dolphins were hesitant to go into the above-referenced price range due to Wilkins’ low sack output (11.5 sacks from 2019-22). He responded with a career year, tallying nine sacks — twice as many as his previous best — and 23 QB hits (10 more than his prior best). Wilkins finished 13th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate metric. This came after ESPN’s run stop win rate metric viewed Wilkins as a dominant presence, ranking him first in 2022 and second in 2021. Wilkins, who also deflected 15 passes from 2020-22, adding a pass rush piece will be valuable soon.

Residing in poor cap shape, the Dolphins already released Jerome Baker and Emmanuel Ogbah and are set to cut Xavien Howard. They have also paid two D-line pieces — DE Bradley Chubb, DT Zach Sieler — eight figures per year and have Jaelan Phillips presumably on the extension radar. Will Wilkins, acquired during Brian Flores’ first year, need to find his money elsewhere? Flores’ Vikings could be waiting.

Best fits: Texans, Vikings, Patriots

5. Jonathan Greenard, Edge. Age in Week 1: 27

Already a lower-profile franchise, the Texans saw their on-field work drift off the radar as their Bill O’Brien-run operation cratered and produced two subsequent HC one-and-dones. One of the players who was worth monitoring during this bleak period broke through to help Houston re-emerge under DeMeco Ryans. Greenard delivered a 12.5-sack season, leading the Texans in sacks by a wide margin and providing Will Anderson with a quality bookend.

A fringe tag candidate entering the offseason, Greenard had already tallied an eight-sack season (in 2021) before an injury-plagued 2022 stalled his early-career momentum. But last season brought new territory. Ranking 20th with 33 quarterback pressures, Greenard smashed his career-high with 22 QB hits. He ranked sixth among edge rushers in ESPN’s pass rush win rate metric in 2023. Reinvigorated in Ryans’ scheme, Greenard profiles as a player the Texans want to re-sign. But rumblings about his price will put Houston to the test. An AAV in the $22MM neighborhood could be in the offing for a player whose best work should still be ahead. Teams look eager to land Greenard.

Sitting in the top five in cap space and having Anderson and C.J. Stroud tied to rookie deals through at least 2025, the Texans can afford to make some investments elsewhere. They have begun doing so via the Dalton Schultz re-signing. Beyond its O-line, Houston’s cap sheet is light on big payments. Regularly stocking the roster with two-year deals at lower-middle-class rates, GM Nick Caserio has not gone to this financial territory to retain a player just yet. The Patriots would regularly let this type of player walk, as the Trey Flowers 2019 Detroit defection illustrates. The Texans’ Stroud and Anderson situations, however, support a re-signing.

Best fits: Texans, Commanders, Bears

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