Offseason Outlook: Washington Commanders

While Jayden Daniels' injuries protected him from labels of a sophomore slump, the Commanders acted swiftly with interesting changes following their wildly disappointing season. The 2024 NFC runner-ups crashed back to earth with a 5-12 finish. Washington cleaned house on the coordinator level, booting Kliff Kingsbury and Joe Whitt after two seasons. Their replacements are less experienced, and Dan Quinn has moved closer to the hot seat.

The Commanders also came into last season with the NFL's oldest roster. They have plenty of work to do to surround Daniels and other core players with younger supplementary pieces as they attempt to dig out of this current hole.

Coaching/front office:

Quinn yanked play-calling duties from Whitt midseason, making the Washington DC position likely to become vacant. But the Kingsbury ouster was unexpected. Resurfacing as a coveted HC interviewee in 2025, the veteran play-caller was out of a job a year later. Teams still called up Kingsbury for HC interviews this offseason, but his Commanders exit brings significant questions.

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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles entered 2025 as reigning Super Bowl champions, but they rarely resembled the juggernauts who steamrolled the Chiefs en route to a Lombardi Trophy a year ago. While the Eagles earned their second straight NFC East title, their win total fell from 14 to 11 and their point differential dropped from plus-160 to plus-54. Their only victories by double-digit points came against the lowly Giants, Raiders and Commanders.

The Eagles also lost to each of the division rival Giants, Commanders and Cowboys - all sub-.500 teams. Those defeats, particularly the regular-season finale against Washington, proved costly for a Philadelphia team that frittered away the second seed in the NFC. Instead of hosting the free-falling, seventh-seeded Packers in the wild-card round, the Eagles took on the sixth-seeded 49ers, who narrowly missed out on the No. 1 spot in the conference. The 49ers walked into Philadelphia and ended the Eagles' season with a 23-19 victory.

Since the Eagles' unceremonious first-round exit on Jan. 11, Nick Sirianni's coaching staff has undergone radical changes on the offensive side. The team is now a month away from potentially losing a few noteworthy contributors to free agency. Wide receiver A.J. Brown is not in position to hit the open market, but a trade looms as a possibility for the three-time Pro Bowler. Deciding on the uber-talented Brown's future will be one of the most important items on general manager Howie Roseman's plate this offseason.

Coaching/front office:

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Offseason Outlook: New York Giants

The Giants have finished with double-digit losses nine times since the 2014 season. The second half of Eli Manning's career has stalled his path to Canton, while Daniel Jones bombed on his second contract. The latter development led Brian Daboll to the firing precipice, but the Giants still let their embattled head coach drive the bus for a Jones successor. Struggles closing games in Jaxson Dart's rookie year prompted the franchise to fire Daboll, but GM Joe Schoen remains.

This offseason included several instances of teams holding HCs accountable for undesired results while keeping GMs employed. Schoen, however, has drifted downward in the Giants' organizational pecking order. After four unsuccessful coaching hires post-Tom Coughlin, the Giants swung big and landed this market's top prize. John Harbaugh agreed to take over in New York, and the longtime Baltimore leader now runs the show. The Super Bowl-winning HC will be tasked with turning around a franchise that has not experienced sustained success since Manning's early years.

Coaching/front office:

The Chiefs' reign atop the AFC held back the Bills and Ravens, with only the Bengals sneaking through to a Super Bowl between 2019-24. Buffalo also bested Baltimore twice in the playoffs during Lamar Jackson's run. More Jackson injury trouble surfaced in 2025, and a do-or-die game going the Steelers' way without D.K. Metcalf available proved too much for Steve Bisciotti to stomach. The Ravens' 8-9 season ended with Harbaugh refusing to separate from OC Todd Monken, with the coach's relationship with Jackson not believed to be on solid ground by season's end. The Ravens fired their 18-year head coach soon after Tyler Loop's season-ending missed field goal.

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Offseason Outlook: New Orleans Saints

Although the Buccaneers and Panthers vied for the NFC South's mandated playoff spot, the Saints finished with more momentum than anyone in the eternally mediocre division. After spinning their wheels for two years post-Drew Brees and then predicably hitting a bloop single with Derek Carr, the Saints saw Tyler Shough show considerable promise after being inserted into the starting lineup around midseason.

New Orleans' midwinter cap situation is also in better shape than it has been in ages. The franchise is, gasp, nearly under the projected 2026 salary ceiling. This is a team that has been more than $100MM over a projected cap this decade, with the team carrying by far the NFL's worst cap situation at this point last year. More medicine is coming via the Carr dead money penalty, but New Orleans may be on the verge of turning a corner after winning four of its final five games.

Another offseason of transition is on tap, with a few Sean Payton-era holdovers either out of contract or representing dead money. But the Saints' finish to the season injects some life into what has been a lower-middle-class NFL staple for most of this decade.

Coaching/front office:

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2026 NFL Offseason Outlook Series

Pro Football Rumors is breaking down how all 32 teams’ offseason blueprints are shaping up. Going forward, the Offseason Outlook series is exclusive to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, and that link provides details on how to sign up for an annual membership.

This post will be updated as more Outlooks are published.

AFC East

  • Buffalo Bills
  • Miami Dolphins
  • New England Patriots
  • New York Jets

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

  • Chicago Bears
  • Detroit Lions
  • Green Bay Packers
  • Minnesota Vikings

NFC South

NFC West

  • Arizona Cardinals
  • Los Angeles Rams
  • San Francisco 49ers
  • Seattle Seahawks

Offseason Outlook: Denver Broncos

Enjoying near-2024 Chiefs-level success in one-score games, the Broncos rode to a 14-3 record and the AFC's No. 1 seed. Denver far outdistanced longtime AFC West kingpin Kansas City and won the division by three games. The team's recent extension recipients led the way, with six players extended in 2024 or 2025 earning original-ballot Pro Bowl nods and four collecting All-Pro honors.

More impressively, the Broncos extended their season to the AFC championship game with Russell Wilson's $32MM cap figure topping their payroll. While Denver fell just short of Super Bowl LX -- with Bo Nix's season-ending ankle injury bringing one of the bigger what-ifs in recent NFL history -- the team has a clear window to continue as a top-tier operation in 2026. The Broncos are now clear of Wilson's record-setting dead money sum, and with Nix on a rookie contract, 2026 represents a sweet spot of sorts for the rejuvenated franchise.

Coaching/front office:

Significant changes are on tap for Sean Payton's staff, though Denver's 2026 coach roster will include Joseph -- despite extensive HC interest -- and Webb even though teams pursued the latter for HC and OC jobs. Webb's status likely led to Lombardi's ouster. The longtime Payton underling was not viewed as a head coaching candidate despite the Broncos' recent success, and credit for Nix's development generally went to Payton and Webb. Lombardi, a three-stint Payton replacement, has landed with the Ravens.

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Offseason Outlook: Detroit Lions

After finishing as the NFC’s No. 1 seed in 2024, the injury-riddled Lions suffered a one-and-done exit in the playoffs. Expectations were high for another strong showing in 2025, a year in which Dan Campbell proceeded with several new faces on his coaching staff.

The expected departures of Ben Johnson, Aaron Glenn and others during last year’s head coaching hiring cycle led to questions about Detroit’s ability to remain among the league’s elite this time around. Many members of the Lions’ core were still present, but the team battled inconsistency throughout the season. Detroit salvaged a 9-8 record by upsetting Chicago in Week 18, but the three-game losing streak which preceded it ensured a return to the playoffs would not be possible.

That leaves Campbell, general manager Brad Holmes and Co. with a number of crucial decisions to make over the coming weeks. A few notable staffing changes have already taken place, but several ascending players currently face an uncertain future beyond 2026. With cap maneuvering and a potential offensive line rebuild on the way, the Lions figure to be busy managing a number of in-house situations this spring.

Coaching/front office moves:

  • Fired offensive coordinator John Morton
  • Hired Drew Petzing as OC replacement
  • Added former Giants interim head coach Mike Kafka to staff
  • Defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard interviewed for Dolphins’ head coaching position

Campbell elected to go internal with one coordinator move last offseason but tapped Morton as an outside hire. The latter faced the tall task or replicating the success enjoyed under Ben Johnson, who led Detroit to three straight top-five finishes in scoring during his OC tenure. Under Morton – who worked with the Lions in 2022 – the team managed to finish fourth in points. A substantial regression in the running game proved to be a problem, however.

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Offseason In Review: Houston Texans

Although the Texans showed their 2023 rebound was far from a fluke, DeMeco Ryans‘ second season saw the team plateau. C.J. Stroud did not take the second-year step many anticipated, and Houston finished with an even point differential despite playing in one of the NFL’s worst divisions. After a second straight 10-7 season, the Texans made widespread offensive changes while fortifying Ryans’ defense for the long term.

As Houston attempts to infiltrate the AFC’s upper crust and reach the first conference championship game in franchise history, some points of emphasis emerged between free agency and the draft.

Trades:

The Texans made the interesting decision to both label their offensive line a problem, the correct determination, while also trading away the best piece from it. Tunsil is out after six Texans seasons, having commanded two monster contracts since the 2019 blockbuster trade brought him in from Miami.

ESPN’s pass block win rate metric slotted Tunsil just outside the top 10 in 2023 and ’24, and the nine-year veteran had stayed mostly healthy since his injury-plagued 2021. Tunsil represented a key component in the Texans’ Stroud developmental effort, and they will pivot from a five-time Pro bowler (all five nods coming in Houston) to an eight-year vet (Cam Robinson) without any honors on his resume. Though, the Texans addressed this position early in the draft as well.

Tunsil is also weeks from his 31st birthday and would have been a candidate for an even higher-priced extension, as two seasons remain on his three-year, $75MM accord. Even though the Texans are light in terms of salary along their O-line — beyond Tytus Howard‘s three-year, $54MM deal — Tunsil said the team was prioritizing younger players over his fourth contract. That could have become a disruption along an O-line that had become a problem in 2024.

That said, this is a gamble due to the potential downgrade Tunsil to Robinson could bring. Still, the Texans fetched a nice haul for a player acquired before Nick Caserio‘s GM tenure began.

One of Caserio’s failed O-line projects is now in Philadelphia, being dealt for a proven safety. As Green did not pan out, the Texans will bet against the Eagles resurrecting his career a la their Mekhi Becton effort. Green struggled during his two seasons on the field while missing all of 2023 due to an offseason injury. A midseason IR trip ended Green’s starter run last season, as the Texas A&M product returned as a seldom-used backup by year’s end. One year remains on Green’s rookie deal; the Eagles declined his fifth-year option.

Gardner-Johnson is an interesting bet, especially in giving up an underperforming guard. Two years also remain on the two-time Super Bowl starter/renowned trash talker’s three-year, $27MM contract. No guaranteed money remains on Gardner-Johnson’s deal post-2025, giving the Texans flexibility if this fit does not work out. The Eagles have now ended both CJGJ’s stints at one season, letting him walk (to the Lions) in 2023 and trading him for a Becton replacement option after the second season.

Philly did see Gardner-Johnson prove an important piece. He tied for the NFL INT lead, with six, in 2022 despite missing five games. Although the Eagles had changed their defensive scheme yet again by the time Gardner-Johnson re-signed, he matched that six-INT season for a No. 1-ranked defense in 2024. Pro Football Focus graded Gardner-Johnson 14th among safety regulars last season, ranking him sixth in terms of coverage.

The former Saints draftee is also still just 27, creating upside in Ryans’ defense. Gardner-Johnson’s arrival could be much more important after Jimmie Ward‘s recent arrest, but he adds to an equation featuring Ward and emerging talent Calen Bullock at safety.

Capitalizing on Stroud’s rookie contract, the Texans parted with low-end compensation to add Kirk. This flier carries considerable upside, as the veteran slot receiver had been the Jaguars’ top Trevor Lawrence-era target. The retooling Jags were prepared to cut Kirk; the Texans made sure they would obtain his rights, picking up the final season of the 1,000-yard weapon’s four-year, $72MM contract.

The Jags’ 2023 freefall came just after Kirk’s season-ending core muscle malady. They went 1-5 without Kirk available down the stretch. The former Cardinals second-round pick had notched his first 1,000-yard season (1,108) in 2022 to justify a contract most labeled outlandish earlier that year. Kirk then beat that per-game yardage number by averaging a career-best 57.6 in 2023.

While Kirk was not as productive to start 2024, he drew trade interest before suffering a broken collarbone. A year after trading for Stefon Diggs, the Texans made a lower-stakes move with a younger cog; Kirk will not turn 29 until November. Given Diggs’ departure and Tank Dell‘s uncertain future, Kirk is probably a low-cost bet worth making.

Ingram is a true flier, having been benched by the Vikings last season. A former second-round pick out of LSU, Ingram made 41 starts with Minnesota. He factors into a crowded Houston guard mix. PFF ranked Ingram 66th among guard regulars last season, and while the advanced metrics site did slot him inside the top 40 in 2023, the Texans are attempting to revive a depressed asset.

Extensions and restructures:

This offseason featured the first batch of highly drafted Caserio players become extension-eligible, marking a turning point for an organization that had bottomed out earlier this decade. Once deploying rosters chock full of average or subaverage veterans, Caserio restocked it with several extension-worthy performers. The fifth-year GM operated proactively, potentially establishing a blueprint for when Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. are up for new deals in 2026.

After an abbreviated rookie season, Stingley has become one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks. Caserio’s initial first-round pick as a GM hit big, intercepting five passes in back-to-back seasons and reaching the first-team All-Pro level. The Texans chose Stingley one spot over Sauce Gardner in 2022, and while the LSU product initially trailed the physical Jets cover man, a changing of the guard occurred — as the No. 1 contender for Patrick Surtain‘s belt, if you will — in 2024.

Pro Football Focus rated Stingley fifth among CB regulars last season, after placing him ninth in 2024, while Gardner struggled. Stingley, 24, already established himself by 2023, though, as his coverage metrics from last season closely resemble his second-year work. After allowing a 47.9% completion rate as the closest defender in 2023, Stingley posted a 47.1 number last year. His passer rating allowed only climbed from 41.3 to a still-elite 51.2, and the boundary defender’s yards-per-target number dropped significantly — from 12.5 to 9.6. A natural in Ryans’ defense, Stingley has become the Texans’ top player. Houston paid him as such.

Despite Surtain’s Defensive Player of the Year season, he now trails Stingley by $6MM in terms of AAV. Both players are signed through 2029, as the Texans still had two years of control on Stingley’s rookie deal (via a fifth-year option that would have been exercised), and the extension includes no full guarantees beyond 2026. Though, a rolling guarantee structure makes this a more player-friendly agreement. Stingley’s 2027 base salary locks in by March 2026; that pattern recurs a year later for his 2028 paragraph 5 number.

Although Stingley does not have a runaway lead in terms of two- and three-year cash flows like he does in CB AAV, it was still surprising to see the Texans agree to make him the NFL’s first $30MM-per-year DB on just a three-year contract. The corner market did not move between May 2022 and September 2024, needing Surtain to break through a $21MM-per-year ceiling — one that had fallen behind safeties by spring 2024. Seeing Surtain and Jalen Ramsey set the table, Stingley collected the final piece of leverage when Jaycee Horn scored a then-market-setting $25MM-per-year deal in early March.

Is Hunter quietly building a Hall of Fame resume? No first-team All-Pro accolades hurt that potential case, but the consistent sack artist’s prime has gone against those of Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons. The youngest player to reach 50 sacks also saw his prime interrupted by injury, as he missed 26 games between the 2020 and ’21 seasons. Despite this sizable chunk of missed time, Hunter ranks 11th in career sacks through an age-30 season (99.5) in NFL history. Houston could be ground zero for a back-door Canton ascent, and Caserio ensured the Hunter-Anderson duo would last longer.

The Texans gave the 2024 free agent signee a deal that narrowly eclipsed Maxx Crosby‘s $35.5MM AAV number, though this obviously differs from the Raiders’ three-year extension. After griping about his Vikings extension — a deal that was team-friendly at the time and only swung further in that direction — for years, Hunter has done well for himself in Houston. He scored a near-fully guaranteed first Texans contract (two years, $49MM; $48MM guaranteed), and the team effectively gave him a $6.1MM raise for 2025. More importantly, Hunter’s re-up secured a near-fully guaranteed 2026.

Hunter, 30, tacked a fifth Pro Bowl onto his resume with a 12.5-sack season. The Texans-Vikings’ Hunter-Jonathan Greenard free agency switch proved a win-win, as the latter earned Pro Bowl recognition as part of a top-five Minnesota defense. Since returning from a 2021 chest injury, Hunter has not missed a game and has displayed consistency by staying between 22 and 23 QB hits in each of those three seasons. Being paired with Anderson will allow a good chance at a seventh double-digit sack season, while his presence helped the younger rusher make strides forward.

Houston moved Pitre from safety to the slot last year, and the early extension reflects a belief that change worked. Shortly after making Stingley the NFL’s highest-paid perimeter corner, the Texans moved Pitre to the top of the slot salary list. This set the bar for Kyler Gordon‘s Bears extension to raise the ceiling to $13.3MM per year.

The slot market keeps growing, as teams are taking advantage of a bargain rate attached to this underrated position. As recently as March 2024, no pure slot had crossed the eight-figure-per-year barrier; after historic cap spikes in 2024 and ’25, six pure slot CBs are there now.

This came after Pitre’s season-ending pectoral injury, which required surgery. The contract certainly renders that a nonissue, as the Texans have the makings of a long-term CB trio. These two deals pair well with Kamari Lassiter‘s rookie pact. The 2024 second-rounder’s rookie deal runs through 2027.

Free agency additions:

Having a biannual look at Robinson through his AFC South past, the Texans decided to add one of this market’s top players days into free agency. While it appeared Robinson’s market — thanks to Ronnie Stanley and Alaric Jackson taking themselves off the table via pre-free agency agreements — would rival Dan Moore Jr.‘s, the longtime Jags LT-turned-Vikings stopgap took a one-year accord with an eye on 2026. Based on the Texans’ offseason, this looks set to be a one-year partnership.

The pure left tackle carrying 101 career starts divided some entering free agency, as no Pro Bowls are on his resume. Then again, Pro Bowl LTs entering age-30 seasons rarely hit the market barring noteworthy injury concerns. PFF slotted Robinson outside the top 50 among tackles last season, and his 88.2% pass block win rate did not wow. But the Texans will add the twice-franchise-tagged blocker as a stopgap while second-round pick Aireontae Ersery develops.

The Hall of Fame will need to adjust its criteria if modern running backs are to be enshrined, as workloads plummeted compared to prior eras. Chubb looked to be one of the players who could create a case, provided the goalposts are moved to accommodate some of this period’s best ballcarriers, but the injuries he sustained in 2023 and ’24 altered that path. The former Browns dynamo missed 15 games in 2023 due to a severe knee injury, one that kept him from debuting until late October of 2024. He then saw a broken foot shelve him after eight games last season. As a result, Chubb’s free agency predictably tanked.

Chubb, 29, had taken a steep Browns pay cut after his 2023 knee injuries — a partially torn ACL, a fully torn MCL along with medial capsule and meniscus damage — and is certainly at a make-or-break point. The former second-round pick had zoomed to four straight Pro Bowls, running behind a well-built Browns O-line. This included two 1,400-plus-yard rushing seasons (2019, 2022), the first of which coming before the team rebuilt its O-line.

One of the NFL’s top pure runners of the past several years, Chubb now joins Joe Mixon — who is nearly a year younger despite being drafted a year earlier — in Houston’s backfield. After not seeing Dameon Pierce pan out, the Texans have one of the more experienced backfields in recent NFL history.

Chubb did not look himself before going down with the foot injury last season. He averaged 3.3 yards per carry, after topping 5.0 in each of his first five seasons, and is likely done as a regular starter. Still, the Texans have a former top-tier RB on a low-cost contract; they will hope the eighth-year vet being nearly two years removed from the major knee injury can spark a resurgence.

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Offseason Outlook: Denver Broncos

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Demaryius Thomas, WR: $15,200,000
  2. Von Miller, OLB: $14,129,000 (franchised)
  3. DeMarcus Ware, OLB: $11,666,668
  4. Ryan Clady, T: $10,100,000
  5. Aqib Talib, CB: $9,968,750
  6. Chris Harris Jr., CB: $9,000,000
  7. Derek Wolfe, DE: $6,800,000
  8. Louis Vasquez, G: $6,750,000
  9. Emmanuel Sanders, WR: $6,600,000
  10. T.J. Ward, S: $5,750,000
  11. Owen Daniels, TE: $4,500,000
  12. Britton Colquitt, P: $4,000,000
  13. Darian Stewart, S: $3,250,000
  14. Virgil Green, TE: $2,900,000
  15. Sylvester Williams, DT: $2,412,375

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • Football operations: Lost national scout John Spytek, who was hired by Buccaneers as director of player personnel.

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

Enjoying one of the stranger routes to a Super Bowl title, the Broncos capitalized on the collection of talent they managed to fit under their salary cap. Despite teetering on the brink of potentially missing the playoffs after amassing a healthy early-season AFC West lead, the Broncos strung together three dominant defensive performances in the postseason once granted their fourth straight first-round bye. The 2010s Broncos are only the fourth team to do earn four straight byes in the double-bye era that began in 1990.

Oddly, this may have been the Broncos’ least complete roster since Peyton Manning arrived in Denver due to the 39-year-old quarterback’s steep decline and a makeshift offensive line. But the league’s top-ranked defense, which improved from a top-five-ranked unit to one in the conversation for best defense ever, compensated for the offense’s issues.

Residing alongside the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers and 2013 Seahawks among the top Super Bowl-winning defenses from this century, the Broncos featured a similar outfit from the 2014 group that fell to the Colts in the divisional round. Only Darian Stewart was a new starter on the ’15 team, but Wade Phillips‘ arrival doubled as John Elway’s best offseason hire once it unleashed the talent the GM acquired on defense. Ranking No. 1 against the pass and No. 3 against the run, the Broncos made ball-advancement difficult throughout the season. Timely turnovers secured victories against the Ravens, Chiefs, Vikings, Raiders, Browns and Bengals, and the defense helped give an often-stagnant offense a wide safety net. The Broncos went 12-3 overall in games decided by seven points or less.

While his 3-4 scheme helped unleash Malik Jackson and Derek Wolfe as 5-technique ends, and moved Von Miller into the highest-paid defender discussion, Phillips proved malleable in key spots. The Broncos deviated from their blitz-heavy tendencies against the Patriots, yet still posted a staggering 23 quarterback hits to prevent New England from taking advantage of Denver’s conservative offense in the AFC championship game. Using more of a base defense in Super Bowl 50, the Broncos quickly stifled the Panthers’ vaunted zone-read attack and illuminated some weaknesses in Cam Newton‘s game that hadn’t surfaced much during the season.

Denver looks to return the bulk of this defense, one that saw five players — Miller, DeMarcus Ware, Shaquil Barrett, Jackson and Wolfe — register at least 5.5 sacks. The defense’s transition from Jack Del Rio‘s read-and-react approach forced quarterbacks into difficult decisions while managing to be a stout force against the run despite Terrance Knighton‘s departure.

The defense’s performance gave the Broncos’ offense plenty of time to work out issues, but ultimately, the unit settled into a game-managerial style that managed to score enough points while limiting turnovers. The Broncos finished plus-4 in the playoffs, but Manning’s and Brock Osweiler‘s 23 combined regular-season interceptions were the most in the league.

Denver’s offense shifted through several phases during its 19 games. An awkward Manning trying out Gary Kubiak‘s system soon gave way to a pistol-modified version, before Manning’s injury brought back Kubiak’s under-center play-action concepts during Osweiler’s starts. Upon return, Manning’s ball-control-based postseason approach proved reasonably effective, but it obviously looked foreign to those who followed the Hall-of-Fame passer’s career.

Denver finished with two 1,000-yard+ receivers for the fourth straight season, with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders repeating that feat. The departures of Julius Thomas and Wes Welker showed, however, with the Broncos’ auxiliary cast failing to make a steady impact. Denver’s run game also didn’t resemble Kubiak’s usual upper-echelon editions, ranking 17th at 107.4 yards per game. C.J. Anderson‘s early struggles burned fantasy owners and forced Ronnie Hillman into the starting role. Hillman dashed for a career-high 863 yards and seven scores before running out of steam and ceding work to Anderson down the stretch. Although Evan Mathis ranked as Pro Football Focus’ best run-blocking guard, Denver’s offense line took a step back, giving up 39 sacks. The Broncos yielded just 35 combined in 2013 and 2014.

Manning turned out to be worth the five-year, $96MM contract he signed in 2012, guiding the Broncos to 50 total wins and two Super Bowl appearances. His first two and a half seasons in Denver produced historic numbers and turned the Broncos into instant contenders after years of middling play in the Mile High City. Manning seemed to hit a wall midway through the 2014 season, causing the Broncos to become more reliant on their defense and ground game. But becoming the first quarterback to win Super Bowls with two different teams, lifting Denver to six home playoff games and breaking numerous passing records will make the Broncos nearly as relevant as the Colts as part of Manning’s legacy.

Manning transforming the Broncos into an instant powerhouse, and improving on his QB-record 11 12-win seasons, should rank alongside the work he did in Indianapolis in terms of the signal-caller’s stamp on the game.

Now that the Manning era is over, it will be interesting to see how the Broncos attempt to extend what’s been their most consistent period of dominance in team history. Should Miller sign a mega-extension, the defensive pieces are still largely in place. But the luxury of a quarterback providing coach-level knowledge and elite-level on-field work Denver enjoyed for the most part during this stretch won’t be there. Whether the Broncos can maintain will depend on what happens at quarterback.

Key Free Agents:

Obscured partially by odd off-field incidents and other players’ rises over the past few years, Von Miller re-emerged as the most feared outside pass rusher in football. Miller’s 11 sacks were actually the second-worst total of his career, but he maintained his lofty standing with the advanced-metrics community. Pro Football Focus rated Miller as its second-best edge defender behind Khalil Mack, but bestowed its best run-defending grade for edge-rushers on Miller.

Miller long ago displayed his dominance in NFL circles but broke out on a national level during these playoffs.

Not factoring in much in the Broncos’ one-and-done postseason forays in 2012 or ’14, and not playing during Denver’s run to Super Bowl XLVIII due to a torn ACL, Miller turned in one of the league’s greatest playoff showings for a defender. His five sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception over the course of the Broncos’ final two wins illustrated his value. Predictably receiving the franchise tag, the soon-to-be 27-year-old Miller is the first player since Drew Brees to receive the exclusive tag for an impending free agent and the first non-quarterback to be protected in this manner since Richard Seymour in 2007.

Miller’s Broncos talks may be more complicated than the ones that resulted in franchise players Ryan Clady, Matt Prater and Demaryius Thomas being signed in July of 2012, 2013 and 2015, respectively. The star pass rusher appears to be campaigning for Ndamukong Suh-type money (six years, $114MM, $59MM guaranteed), but the Dolphins were paying Suh in comparison to what he could make on the open market after the Lions didn’t tag him. With Miller being tagged for $14.13MM, the Broncos can use that as leverage in an effort to keep Miller’s price under those marks. Still, Miller will surpass Justin Houston‘s league-high linebacker contract of six years and $101MM and be a part of the Broncos’ title defense this season. John Elway‘s track record for signing his top players points to Miller being back on a long-term accord, even though the negotiations could be tricky.

Elway’s talks with Osweiler may have progressed to the point where the ball’s in the court of Peyton Manning‘s longtime apprentice. The Broncos have reportedly offered the 6-foot-8 quarterback a $45MM deal over three years, which surpasses Nick Foles‘ prove-it-type pact with the Rams but falls just shy of the $16MM AAV threshold that poses a figurative line of demarcation for franchise quarterbacks. Sam Bradford‘s deal and Kirk Cousins‘ franchise tag may have increased Osweiler’s value. The 25-year-old comes in No. 1 on PFR’s list of available signal-callers, and it would behoove Osweiler to see what his market is before re-signing in Denver.

Osweiler may be able to earn more money with a team like the Texans, who aren’t in position to draft Jared Goff or Carson Wentz. But his odds of playing out a contract and staying on track to earn an accord in line with top-flight quarterbacks may be best with the Broncos. After going 5-2 as a starter in a strong late-season audition, Osweiler re-signing with Denver would place him back in a system he seems to fit and give him the luxury of operating with a top-tier defense. Should Osweiler sign elsewhere, he wouldn’t necessarily have these amenities and would have to go about learning a new offense. Osweiler may prove not to be worth the money in an environment that forces him to be more of a gunslinger and less of a game manager.

We don’t yet know what kind of guarantees the Broncos are offering, and that could be the delay in Osweiler re-signing. The former second-round pick surveying the market could induce Denver to up the price. Even though Elway has been one of the best GMs in the game in signing players to team-friendly deals, he might cave at the thought of Osweiler leaving and the Broncos having to turn to a journeyman or a rookie to guide his defending champion roster.

Signing Osweiler to a deal that either nears or exceeds $15MM annually, however, based on seven starts would qualify as Elway’s biggest risk as a GM. Osweiler’s 61.8% completion rate and 10-to-6 TD/INT ratio were positive marks based on his limited work in previous low-stakes situations, and the Broncos don’t win a title without his contributions. But Denver’s offense struggled to get first downs during several entire halves under Osweiler, whose ceiling is certainly in question.

A deal for Osweiler that’s only a few million per year shy of Manning’s lucrative salaries will make it difficult to keep Malik Jackson. The burgeoning-star defender has reportedly rebuffed eight-figure-per-season offers from the Broncos and seems likely to hit the market, where teams with more money and in greater need of pass-rushing help await. The reported deal close to $11MM AAV the Broncos offered Jackson would place the fifth-year player in close proximity to the highest-paid 3-4 ends who are not named J.J. Watt.

Jackson, however, has thrived at three different positions over the past three years – 4-3 defensive tackle in 2013, 4-3 end in ’14 and (most notably) 3-4 end under Wade Phillips – and could push for interior pass-rushing money in line with the 4-3 tackles that aren’t Ndamukong Suh. Although the 26-year-old Jackson outworked Gerald McCoy ($15.9MM AAV) and Marcell Dareus ($16.1MM per year) in terms of combined sacks, hits and hurries last year, he probably won’t receive an offer quite that lucrative. Anything in that realm and the Broncos — who already signed Jackson’s 2012 draft classmate, Derek Wolfe, to a four-year, $36.7MM deal — may have to let someone else pay Jackson’s second contract.

Danny Trevathan, however, profiles as the kind of player Elway has let leave. He allowed Wesley Woodyard to exit after 2013 and hasn’t paid the kind of money Trevathan is probably seeking to non-rush linebackers. The only deal of consequence the Broncos have given to an inside backer under Elway’s watch came when the team extended Joe Mays for $4MM per year in 2012, and John Fox benched Mays less than halfway into that season.

Trevathan looks to have a higher ceiling than Woodyard, who signed for four years and $16MM with the Titans in 2014. Despite playing his first season as an inside ‘backer, Trevathan led the Broncos in tackles for the second time and showed teams he has sufficiently recovered from the leg injuries that derailed his 2014 campaign. The former sixth-round pick could conceivably fetch more than $7MM from a linebacker-needy team. Twelve inside ‘backers earn that on average, and Trevathan is younger than most of them. Entering only his age-26 season, Trevathan ranks as PFR’s top inside linebacker UFA and, unlike Jackson, the Broncos haven’t made much of an attempt to keep him off the market.

Ronnie Hillman is a more intriguing case. He stood out for the Broncos in his fourth year and is only 24. Entering the draft after his sophomore season at San Diego State, Hillman is younger than his free agent ball-carrying brethren, but he clearly ranks among the second tier of UFA backs – behind the likes of Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, Matt Forte and possibly a few others – and may not command too much more than the $770K he earned in 2015. Should Hillman’s market dry out, a return to Denver looms plausible.

Hillman did not show well in the playoffs, rushing for just 54 yards compared to C.J. Anderson‘s 234. And despite his profile as a change-of-pace ball-carrier, Hillman didn’t factor into the Broncos’ passing game — the former third-round pick caught just 24 passes for just 111 yards. It’s more likely that the Broncos let someone else give Hillman a slight raise and either team Anderson with Juwan Thompson and a mid-round rookie next season, or select Anderson’s potential successor in the early rounds.

The Broncos’ free agent gridlock includes two starting linemen, Evan Mathis and Ryan Harris. Neither figures to rank too high on the club’s offseason itinerary.

Mathis graded as the best offensive lineman in the Super Bowl for either team, per Pro Football Focus, and proved to be another pivotal signing by the Broncos. Coming to Denver for one year and $4MM, Mathis battled multiple maladies to lead Denver’s three-guard rotation. He’s hinted at retirement and will turn 35 in November. It’s possible Mathis will continue his career and sign a new contract, but with Max Garcia likely to step in at one of Denver’s guard spots, the veteran likely won’t get that new contract from the Broncos.

An emergency signing once Ryan Clady tore his ACL during OTAs, Harris was thrust into the role of left tackle after Ty Sambrailo also was lost for the season. Harris and Michael Schofield doubled as one of the worst tackle tandems in football, according to PFF, however. The 30-year-old Harris could have a route back to Denver, where he has had two stints, but only as a swing tackle on a veteran-minimum-type contract.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The Broncos’ tightrope walk in an effort to keep Brock Osweiler and Malik Jackson could result in some high-profile names being cut.

Ryan Clady has already agreed to discuss a pay reduction, and the Broncos are in talks with their longtime left tackle about doing so. But how much of a salary slash the 29-year-old Clady will accept is uncertain, and so is his future performance level after missing 30 regular-season games — and both Super Bowls in which the team appeared — the past two years. A former two-time first-team All-Pro and a player drafted to block in a zone system identical to the one Gary Kubiak utilizes, Clady is probably a better option than most tackles available. But the Broncos could save $8.9MM by releasing him, a route John Elway likely will consider despite the Broncos’ issues at the position. Clady has two years remaining on the five-year, $52.5MM extension he signed four years ago.

Louis Vasquez resides in a similar place. Injuries nagged the former first-team All-Pro, and he lost snaps to Max Garcia in the Broncos’ guard shuffle. Although Vasquez played most of the snaps in the playoffs, he’s entering the final saeson of his four-year contract. The Broncos can save $5.5MM by cutting their right guard. As is the case with Clady though, they don’t have an in-house replacement.

One of these performers could well receive the ax, with DeMarcus Ware‘s lofty cap figure ($11.67MM) looming as one the Broncos would probably like to reduce but only ditch as a last-resort measure. Ware delivered more quarterback hits in the playoffs than Miller despite recording 3.5 sacks to Miller’s five. The Broncos may not have qualified for the Super Bowl had Ware not torched Sebastian Vollmer in the AFC title game, showing no ill-effects from the back injury that forced him to miss a career-most five games during the regular season.

Ware, however, will be 34 and the Broncos sport pass-rushing depth. Shaquil Barrett stood out as Ware’s primary replacement, collecting 7.5 sacks. The ex-UDFA could team with 2015 first-rounder Shane Ray to help the Broncos compensate for a Ware release. However, neither can match Ware’s explosiveness, and a scenario where the Broncos lose Ware and Manning in one week may be a lot to digest for a defending champion whose roster reveres those presences. The Broncos can save $10MM by jettisoning Ware.

Positions Of Need:

If the Broncos can’t reach an agreement with Brock Osweiler this week, their options dwindle fast, especially if the Jets retain Ryan Fitzpatrick. Chase Daniel and Matt Moore are the proven backup options, with potentially available higher-risk players like Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III not yet officially available. The latter duo at their respective peaks would represent upgrades over Osweiler, but both come with significant baggage and aren’t the offensive caretakers Osweiler and the postseason version of Peyton Manning proved to be. Kaepernick may require the Broncos to surrender as much as a second-round pick as well.

Rookie prospects like Connor Cook or Dak Prescott may be contingency plans in case Osweiler does receive a monster offer and the Broncos need to sign a veteran backup. Manning’s workmanlike playoff outings proved the Broncos didn’t need stellar quarterback play to win, but their defense might not be quite as good if certain UFAs bolt. And having to go with a rookie learning from a veteran like Moore or even Tarvaris Jackson would potentially be a steep downgrade from Osweiler.

The Broncos’ overtures to Osweiler make it likely he returns, but if John Elway believes preserving this defense supersedes employing a highly-paid quarterback, it will be a very interesting offseason for the defending champions. Only one eventual Super Bowl champion in the free agency era has allowed its starting quarterback to defect via free agency – the Ravens upon replacing Trent Dilfer with Elvis Grbac – so there’s not a lot of precedent for what could transpire in Denver if its Manning succession plan backfires.

Denver’s offensive line will need reinforcements regardless of how Elway handles Louis Vasquez and Ryan Clady. Pro Football Focus ranked the Broncos’ front 20th last season, and the group’s top-rated performer, Evan Mathis, isn’t expected to be back. The Broncos probably turn to Matt Paradis and Max Garcia at two spots, with likely one of Clady and Vasquez occupying a third and Ty Sambrailo expected back at one of the tackle positions. But Sambrailo didn’t perform well in his brief debut, so adding a tackle should be a priority. Clady is a short-term solution at this point.

The bulk of the UFA tackles are power-blocking players, and with the salary crunch in which the Broncos find themselves, a high-priced player is presumably off the table. Texas Tech’s Le’Raven Clark or Indiana’s Jason Spriggs may be available when the Broncos pick at No. 31, and this figures to be an early-round need. Elway, however, hasn’t been big on drafting for need, exemplified first by his bypassing Patrick Peterson and Marcell Dareus for Von Miller, then the best-player-available tendencies surfacing again the past two years. In 2014, the Broncos drafted Bradley Roby after already having Aqib Talib and Chris Harris in the fold, and last year traded up to pick Shane Ray to play behind Miller and DeMarcus Ware.

Guard is also a need, and there are some UFA candidates. Former Gary Kubiak charges in Houston, Brandon Brooks and Ben Jones, make sense. Both Kubiak-drafted players began their careers as zone-blockers and possess extensive seasoning as starters. Brooks and Jones started at least 10 games in a season under Kubiak during his Texans tenure, and each has been a Houston starter the past two years. Before moving to center, Jones played guard under Kubiak.

Pro Football Focus hasn’t enjoyed Zane Beadles‘ work in Denver or Jacksonville, but the recently released guard has proven durable in being healthy for every game of his six-year career. Denver would be able to sign him for less than what the Jaguars paid to bring in the now-29-year-old interior man. Guard is a position the Broncos will also likely address in the draft. They haven’t taken a guard or tackle in the draft’s first two rounds since using a second-rounder on Orlando Franklin in 2011.

Should Jackson depart, the Broncos could save money by shifting Vance Walker to end and acquiring depth. Walker played end with the Chiefs and functioned well as a reserve tackle/end last season in Denver. PFF ranked Walker as its No. 27 interior defender, and he’s due back with the Broncos on a $1.5MM salary in 2016. Mike DeVito is one of the many UFAs that could depart Kansas City and won’t cost as much as Jaye Howard. DeVito had a decent season, but the Chiefs’ well-fortified front didn’t have room for him. Cedric Thornton did well for himself in his contract year, but possibly too well. There aren’t a lot of players who fit Jackson’s description; his replacement will be cheaper and almost certainly inferior.

Running back and inside linebacker qualify as needs, but the Broncos are unlikely to allocate much capital toward filling them, even though some mock drafts have the team going for Derrick Henry in Round 1. With C.J. Anderson‘s postseason work sample showing he’s a starting-caliber back, the Broncos need a player who can complement him by being a receiving threat instead of someone who has a similar skill set. Utah’s Devontae Booker (622 receiving yards in two seasons) or Louisiana Tech’s Kenneth Dixon (464 air yards, seven touchdown receptions in 2015) make more sense as a second- or third-round pick to supplement Anderson and potentially take over once Denver’s current starter’s contract expires after 2016.

Todd Davis looms as the top in-house option to succeed Trevathan. The Broncos, in all likelihood, won’t spend much more than a mid- or late-round pick here and almost certainly won’t bring in a pricey veteran.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Signed to what turned out to be a steal at three years and $15MM, Emmanuel Sanders enters a contract year in 2016. Gary Kubiak‘s offense traditionally funnels through its No. 1 receiver, as Rod Smith and Andre Johnson have shown, but Sanders has arguably been better than Demaryius Thomas the past two seasons at a fraction of the cost. This proved true in the playoffs, when Sanders served as Peyton Manning‘s top weapon in hauling in 16 passes for 230 yards compared to Thomas’ 7/60 line.

Entering his age-29 season this fall, Sanders could see his worth escalate a year from now. Assuming Alshon Jeffery and the Bears come to an agreement, Sanders could be the top receiver on the 2017 market prior to cuts being made, especially if the Texans extend DeAndre Hopkins or exercise his fifth-year option. Doug Baldwin and Michael Floyd are the other prominent 2017 UFAs as of now. Sanders’ versatility to line up outside and in the slot should put him in line for a final big payday.

To sign Sanders, the Broncos will need to up his price somewhat. If their now-conservative offense looks a lot like what it displayed in 2015, securing Sanders’ early-30s services might not be a high priority at the price he could command. After all, Thomas currently represents the team’s largest cap hold at $15.2MM in ’16. However, unlike this year, the Broncos don’t look to have a deep crop of departing UFAs, which could spark interest in retaining their No. 2 target.

Sylvester Williams‘ third season was largely overlooked due to the abundance of talent around him. The Broncos’ nose tackle proved serviceable in his first year without Terrance Knighton but came off the field on most passing downs due to Malik Jackson and Derek Wolfe‘s abilities at creating inside rushes. With Jackson perhaps on his way out of Denver, the Broncos may opt for some security on its front without much depth behind Wolfe and Williams.

The Broncos could keep Williams around for two more seasons, with his 2017 option costing them at least $6.15MM, and move on after his first contract expires. Williams entered the league in time for his age-25 season, and if the Broncos pick up his option, he’ll turn 30 during the first season of his next contract. The 27-year-old provides stability now, but barring an uptick in play, Williams may see age affect his earnings down the road.

Denver’s 2013 draft class wasn’t strong. Only Williams and third-rounder Kayvon Webster remain on the team, but Brandon Marshall looms as a de facto ’13 pick due to his rookie-year practice squad time delaying his NFL clock. Marshall, a restricted free agent due to receive a second-round tender from the Broncos, is on track to be a UFA next year and could have a similar market to Trevathan. A former Jaguars fifth-round pick, Marshall being back this season will make it easier for the Broncos to cut ties with Trevathan. But losing both of their No. 1 defense’s starting inside linebackers in two years would put an emphasis on adding at this spot in the draft.

If the Broncos don’t address the ILB position in the draft this year, they could attempt to lock up Marshall early for around $5MM-$6MM per season. The 26-year-old Marshall’s eventual asking price may depend on what Trevathan receives this week. With players like DeMarcus Ware, Louis Vasquez and possibly Ryan Clady and Aqib Talib (the latter due $32MM in non-guaranteed money for his age-31, 32 and 33 seasons) coming off the books, extending someone like Marshall may prove to be important.

Overall Outlook:

While it will be difficult to duplicate what the Peyton Manning years brought, the Broncos are well-positioned in the short-term. John Elway‘s ability to sign outside talent, keep his top players and unearth gems in the late rounds and via UDFA signings have his team looking like the favorite to win the AFC West for a sixth straight season.

Their defensive capabilities notwithstanding, the Broncos’ viability as a long-term contender will come down to Brock Osweiler‘s development if he re-signs. If Osweiler builds on his late-season work, the Broncos’ title window can potentially extend longer than expected. If the league adjusts to the thus-far middling talent, it’s hard to place the defending champions among the favorites to challenge teams like the Patriots or Steelers for conference supremacy.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Green Bay Packers

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Aaron Rodgers, QB: $19,250,000
  2. Clay Matthews, LB: $13,750,000
  3. Sam Shields, CB: $12,000,000
  4. Julius Peppers, OLB: $10,500,000
  5. Randall Cobb, WR: $9,150,000
  6. Jordy Nelson, WR: $8,300,000
  7. Mike Daniels, DE: $7,400,000
  8. Josh Sitton, G: $6,850,000
  9. T.J. Lang, G: $6,181,250
  10. Morgan Burnett, S: $5,956,250
  11. Bryan Bulaga, T: $5,462,500
  12. Letroy Guion, DT: $3,516,666
  13. Datone Jones, DE: $2,455,282
  14. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S: $2,274,137
  15. Damarious Randall, S: $1,799,029

Notable coaching/front office moves:

Draft:

  • No. 27 overall pick
  • No traded draft picks

Other:

Overview:

Another season, another disappointing finish for the Green Bay Packers. Since winning the Super Bowl in 2011, the team has only made one conference championship appearance, despite employing arguably the world’s best quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. The Packers’ demise this past season could certainly be attributed to injuries up and down the roster, and the club still deserves praise for willing its way to 10 victories in a difficult NFC.

Ted ThompsonFor those looking to point fingers, the majority of the blame could be placed at the top. General manager Ted Thompson has received criticism for his lack of moves in free agency, even reportedly drawing the ire of head coach Mike McCarthy. According to a January report from Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel – one that was dismissed by Thompson and McCarthy – the coach “is fed up with his boss’ unwillingness to take a chance and reinforce the roster with veteran players that might be unknown to the Packers but have the talent to contribute.”

Thompson has consistently put together winning rosters, but he has done so with his own players. The Packers have brought in a handful of outside free agents in recent years (including Julius Peppers), but you rarely see the team mentioned as a probable suitor in discussions of destinations for some of the league’s top free agents.

Why is this significant? The Packers’ current crop of free agents certainly played an important role for the team this past season, but none of the players are essential to maintaining the team’s success. Green Bay has depth up and down its roster, making talented players like Casey Hayward, B.J. Raji, and James Starks expendable. Armed with more than $22MM in cap space, Thompson has an opportunity to add some reinforcements to his roster, and there are several holes that could use upgrades (including inside linebacker and tight end).

Thompson could ultimately take his usual route, which would mean extending his 2017 free agents and relying on his previously-drafted players. However, with an abundance of available cash, this offseason represents an opportunity for the Packers GM to drastically improve his roster.

Key Free Agents:

The majority of the Packers’ core should remain intact for next season, and the team retained one of its most important free agents earlier this past week, inking Mason Crosby to a four-year extension. The nine-year veteran has spent his entire career with the Packers, providing the sort of consistency and stability at the position that many teams would envy. Since a dreadful 2012 campaign, Crosby has re-established himself as one of the top kickers in the league, and Green Bay’s offseason becomes a whole lot easier now that the 31-year-old is sticking around.

Casey HaywardOutside of Crosby, the Packers certainly wouldn’t be sweating if any of their free agents left town. Many teams would make retaining a young talented defensive back like Casey Hayward a priority, after the 26-year-old established himself as a solid starting cornerback last season, ranking 16th among the 111 qualified players at the position graded by Pro Football Focus. However, the Packers have the luxury of having both Quinten Rollins (20th) and Sam Shields (25th) on their roster, and the team also drafted Damarious Randall in last year’s first round. Shields and Randall project to be the outside options, and Rollins can easily replace Hayward on the inside. Considering the contract he’s expected to demand, it would be a surprise if Hayward is wearing green and yellow next season.

James Starks, a longtime Packer, had arguably the best season of his career in 2015, finishing with close to 1,000 yards from scrimmage. The 30-year-old ended up bailing out Eddie Lacy, who struggled with inconsistency throughout the season. Coming off a career year, Starks has set himself up nicely for a payday — while he played his 2015 role as a backup and insurance policy to Lacy perfectly, the veteran could decide to seek a starting opportunity elsewhere.

The Packers’ defense has some depth on the edge (especially if Clay Matthews makes his long-awaited switch), but their linebacker core does have two major free agents in Mike Neal and Nick Perry. Neal started 15 games last season, finishing with 36 tackles and four sacks. That wasn’t near the production of his breakout 2013 campaign, but the 28-year-old has proven to be a consistent presence on the field. With Julius Peppers and Matthews already under contract, Neal may be able to find more playing time elsewhere. Perry, meanwhile, is arguably one of the best backup linebackers in the league, and the 25-year-old has averaged more than 16 tackles and three sacks over his four seasons in Green Bay. Perry has experience within the system, and he’s solid insurance in case the Peppers/Matthews duo misses time.

Say what you will about B.J. Raji’s production on the field, but the veteran has been a consistent presence in the middle of the Packers defense for years. Re-signing Letroy Guion to a new contract eases the urgency to retain the older defensive tackle, though the team might lack a bit of depth at the position as Mike Pennel sits out the first four games of next season due to a suspension. Still, Raji could probably command a larger contract elsewhere, and the Packers could find a replacement for the 29-year-old via free agency or the draft.

James JonesThe same could be said for veteran fullback John Kuhn and wideout James Jones. Kuhn is a fan favorite in Green Bay, and he has consistently ranked among the best fullbacks in the game. If Kuhn did leave town, it wouldn’t be impossible to replace his production, but the 33-year-old won’t command a huge contract on the open market, so the Packers should be optimistic about retaining him.

Jones, meanwhile, is a bit of a different story. The 31-year-old returned to the Packers following a single season in Oakland, and he managed to put together one of the strongest years of his career. Jones would seem to be in line for a payday, but teams may be wary of his lack of production outside of Green Bay. The Packers won’t have any reason to overspend to retain his services, considering Jordy Nelson is returning from injury and there are several young wideouts standing in the wings. If the veteran receiver wants a bigger role or more money, he won’t be staying in Green Bay.

“I was hoping it would go be back to Green Bay, but I don’t know what’s going to happen,” Jones recently said on SiriusXM NFL Radio, per Henry Buggy of HNGN.com. “Like I said before, I would love to finish my career as a Green Bay Packer, but we all know this business is extremely crazy so it looks like I’m going to hit the open market again so we’ll see what’s going to happen and hopefully I get a little more action this time.”

Offensive tackle Don Barclay was part of the Packers’ four-man rotation at offensive tackle, but the team has plenty of depth with Bryan Bulaga, J.C. Tretter, and David Bakhtiari still in the mix. The same logic applies to tight ends Andrew Quarless and Justin Perillo. The duo combined for only 251 snaps, barely more than a quarter of Richard Rodgers’ 940 snaps. The team could easily replace their depth, or they could opt to improve at the position. Finally, Scott Tolzien’s tenure in Green Bay seems to be over, and the team could either bring in a veteran quarterback or rely on Brett Hundley.

Possible Cap Casualties:

When Julius Peppers signed a team-friendly three-year deal with the Packers in 2014, there was some skepticism about whether the veteran linebacker would ever see the end of his contract. This sentiment was logical: the 36-year-old has a 2016 cap hit up $10.5MM, and the organization could free up $8MM by letting go of the nine-time Pro Bowler. Since signing, however, Peppers has had two solid seasons in Green Bay, averaging 40 tackles and more than eight sacks per year.

Although there was some speculation immediately following the season that Peppers may decide to retire, the veteran was adamant that he intends to play next season, and it doesn’t appear as if he’s going anywhere.

Julius Peppers“I think somebody kind of took (my comments after the season) out of context,” Peppers told Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press. “They asked me after the game what did I think about next year, and I was just saying that pretty much everybody has decisions to make and that type of thing. But as far as I know, I think I’m going to be playing next year, unless something happens that I don’t know about. And that’s possible.”

With Mike Neal and Nick Perry set to hit free agency, the Packers will need Peppers to help solidify their linebacking corps.

Since Peppers will presumably be sticking around, there aren’t other clear cap casualties on the Packers roster. Green Bay could decide to move on from punter Tim Masthay, who despite setting several franchise records last year actually rated as below-average. However, cutting the longtime Packer wouldn’t open up much cap room ($1.3MM), and they’d have to find a replacement.

If the Packers ink James Starks to a lucrative contract, they could decide to cut Eddie Lacy, but the modest savings ($850K) probably aren’t enough incentive to give up on the 25-year-old. In both these situations, the player’s release wouldn’t necessarily be influenced by the cap savings.

Positions Of Need:

Packers fans have consistently been calling for Clay Matthews to return to his natural outside linebacker position, and it certainly sounds like the team is open to the idea. However, that kind of move would open up the hole inside that necessitated the change in the first place. For what it’s worth, Mike McCarthy recently hinted to Ryan Wood of PackersNews.com that he’d like to see it happen.

Clay Matthews“Frankly, my goal with Clay is for him to play outside linebacker,” the coach said in January. “That’s always been the case. I’ve never really made any bones about it. I think it shows the type of player Clay is, just as far as the type of teammate he is, to go inside and to play as much as he did really full time there.”

The Packers have some depth among their other inside linebackers, but none of the players have proven that they can be relied on full-time. Following a solid 2014 campaign, Sam Barrington sat out the majority of the 2015 season due to injury. Nate Palmer, his original replacement, compiled 64 tackles last season, but he was eventually replaced by rookie Jake Ryan.

While the Packers can perhaps count on one of those players to run with a starting role, a Matthews transition to outside linebacker would require two of them to start. Plus, depending on what happens with Mike Neal and Nick Perry, the team may also need to add multiple edge rushers to its roster.

The Packers already locked up Letroy Guion, who established career-highs in several categories last season. Their other starter, B.J. Raji, is an unrestricted free agent, and it sounds like the two sides have had some talks regarding an extension. However, Raji barely cracked Pro Football Focus’ top 100 among inside defenders, so we’ll see how far the team is willing to go to retain his services.

Eddie Lacy was disappointing last season, finishing with career-lows in attempts (187), yards (758), and touchdowns (three). The third-year running back was criticized by McCarthy for not being in shape, and recent photos have shown a slimmed-down Lacy. Still, there’s only a year left on the 25-year-old’s contract, and there have to be some questions within the organization about whether the team can commit to him long term.

Eddie Lacy“He’s got a lot of work to do,” McCarthy said of Lacy (via Dan Hanzus of NFL.com). “His offseason last year was not good enough and he never recovered from it. He cannot play at the weight he played at this year.”

Meanwhile, James Starks, Lacy’s backup, had one of the most productive seasons of his career, but the lifelong Packer is set to be an unrestricted free agent. Starks may attempt to find a starting job elsewhere, which would presumably price the Packers out of negotiations. Green Bay could attempt to keep Starks and move forward with the solid duo, or the team could look to blow-up its backfield altogether. Plus, beloved fullback John Kuhn is set to be a free agent, meaning we could see Rodgers handing off to multiple new backfield mates in 2016.

Speaking of Rodgers, the team should consider adding some targets to the quarterback’s arsenal, particularly at tight end. Richard Rodgers had something of a breakout year in 2015, but the 24-year-old is a far cry from Jermichael Finley. McCarthy appeared dissatisfied with the position’s production, evident by the firing of tight ends coach Jerry Fontenot. Andrew Quarless is hitting free agency, so the team could look to add a veteran to pair with Rodgers.

The Packers will hold onto most of their offensive line depth, but the front office should consider improving the entire unit. The club allowed the eighth-most QB hits last season, and Aaron Rodgers was sacked 46 times, his highest total since 2012. Rodgers will be turning 33 years old in December, and the organization’s championship window closes a bit each year. The team wouldn’t want to compromise that short timeline and see Rodgers get hurt.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

David BakhtiariThe Packers’ offseason has the potential to be pretty subdued in terms of player acquisitions, so the front office could look to extend several of the team’s 2017 free agents. The club will have a trio of expiring contracts on its offensive line: David Bakhtiari, Josh Sitton, and T.J. Lang. Bakhtiari is the youngest of the bunch, and the former fourth-rounder could be eyeing a contract north of $10MM annually. Thompson and the Packers organization have prioritized retaining their own players, and the general manager has a tendency to ink his young players to contracts during the final year of their rookie pacts. Don’t be surprised if the two sides come to an agreement on a long-term deal, especially since Bakhtiari wants to stay in Green Bay long term.

“I think it’s mutual,” Bakhtiari told Ryan Wood of PackerNews.com. “I like it here, and they like me. I have another year. So I think if they want to do it early, awesome. If not, then we have one more year to work together. So we can talk about it then. I do think it’s too early though.”

Sitton and Lang are both wrapping up their first extensions, and each of them will be in line for another sizable contract next offseason. It would be difficult for the Packers retain both of those guards, especially since the team invested in lineman Bryan Bulaga last year. Bakhtiari should be an extension priority, but the front office will likely be more willing to let Sitton and Lang hit free agency.

Overall Outlook:

If the Packers follow their usual blueprint and have a relatively silent offseason, the focus may be unfairly shifted to Mike McCarthy. The coach regained his offensive play-calling duties during the regular season, and he seemed to repair his relationship with Aaron Rodgers as the year progressed. Even if the coach did want to partially attribute the team’s failures to lack of veteran reinforcement, someone’s going to have to eventually take the blame for the Packers’ inability to reach the Super Bowl. Considering Ted Thompson’s track records of drafting and developing successful squads, it may end up being McCarthy on the hot seat if the team fails in the playoffs once again.

There’s little reason for pessimism in Green Bay, however. The Packers have set themselves up nicely for the 2016 season. As is, the team should certainly be considered a contender in the NFC, and with more than $20MM in cap space, Green Bay has an opportunity to make itself bona fide Super Bowl favorites.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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