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5 Key Stories: 3/31/24 – 4/7/24

April 7th, 2024 at 4:45pm CST by Adam La Rose

With the calendar having flipped to April, the countdown to the draft continues. As teams further evaluate the top prospects in this year’s class, a number of key decisions involving established players have taken place recently. Here is a recap of the league’s top headlines from the past week:

  • Bills Deal Diggs To Texans: Stefon Diggs saw his four-year Bills run come to an end with a deal sending him to the Texans being worked out in short order. Buffalo will receive a 2025 second-round pick in return for the four-time Pro Bowler and two Day 3 selections. Diggs, 30, has been the subject of controversy and speculation over time, although Bills GM Brandon Beane planned on retaining him for the 2024 campaign prior to talks with Houston picking up. The Texans now boast a six-time 1,000-yard receiver on an offense which already had high expectations ahead of the coming season, although the team has notably removed the post-2024 years on Diggs’ deal. Carrying a dead cap charge of over $31MM and now dealing with another receiver departure, meanwhile, the Bills will be a team to watch with respect to a pass-catching addition in the draft.
  • Panthers Extend Brown: The Panthers’ negotiations with Derrick Brown on a lucrative new deal produced a four-year, $96MM agreement. The former top-10 pick thus became the latest young defensive tackle to earn a monster second contract, securing $41MM fully guaranteed in the process. Brown earned his first career Pro Bowl nod last season, and the departures of several key defenders – including Brian Burns – will add even further to his importance on Carolina’s defense. Days away from his 26th birthday, Brown continued ascending as a run defender in 2023 (103 tackles), although his career has included marginal sack production compared to his positional peers. New general manager Dan Morgan is nevertheless confident the Auburn product can remain an anchor along the Panthers’ defensive interior for the foreseeable future.
  • Mailata Lands New Eagles Deal: The Eagles have already given guard Landon Dickerson a record-setting extension but the 2024 offseason has also seen another major financial investment up front. Left tackle Jordan Mailata landed a three-year, $66MM extension despite being on the books through 2025. The converted rugby player will now earn an average of $22MM per season, a figure which ranks fourth amongst all left tackles. Mailata, 27, has been a foundational member of the Eagles’ O-line for the past four seasons and he will remain in place for years to come as a result of this agreement. Philadelphia’s offensive front will look different in the middle after center Jason Kelce’s retirement; the blindside will have a familiar face in 2024 and beyond, though.
  • Dugger Replaces Transition Tag With Patriots Contract: The Patriots kept Kyle Dugger from reaching the market by placing the rarely-used transition tag on him last month. The sides remained free to negotiate a long-term deal, though, and efforts on that front produced a four-year agreement. The versatile defensive back will receive up to $66MM on his new contract, including $32.5MM guaranteed. New England has managed to retain a number of pending free agents this offseason, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Dugger, 28, has proven to be a high-end producer in the run game throughout his four-year career, although his work in coverage has led to less-than stellar evaluations. As the team transitions to new head coach Jerod Mayo, he will remain a focal point of the New England’s secondary in 2024 and beyond.
  • Chiefs’ Rice Set To Face Charges? Rashee Rice was involved in a hit-and-run incident, during which six vehicles crashed. Two cars were believed to be street racing, and the Chiefs wideout was driving one of them before fleeing the scene. As a result, Rice’s lawyer expects charges to be filed in the near future, though the 23-year-old has cooperated with police’s investigation and he plans on covering the victims’ expenses generated by the accident. NFL discipline does not require legal action being taken, but the league may very well wait until after any charges are laid before proceeding with a punishment. Rice is currently on track to play a large role in Kansas City’s receiving corps for 2024 after enjoying a strong rookie campaign.

Revisiting 2021 First-Round QB Picks

March 31st, 2024 at 10:02pm CST by Adam La Rose

With the 2024 draft approaching, this year’s crop of quarterbacks will increasingly become the center of attention around the NFL. Acquiring rookie passers is viewed as the surest route to long-term success, and the urgency teams feel to generate quick rebuilds fuels aggressive moves aimed at acquiring signal-callers deemed to have high upside.

Each class is different, though, and past drafts can offer a cautionary tale about the downfalls of being overly optimistic regarding a young quarterback. In the case of the 2021 draft, five signal-callers were selected on Day 1, and to varying extents things have not gone according to plan in each case. Three quarterbacks (quite possibly four, depending on how the immediate future plays out) have been traded, while the other has not lived up to expectations.

Here is a breakdown of all five QBs taken in the first round three years ago:

Trevor Lawrence (No. 1 overall, Jaguars)

Lawrence entered the league with enormous expectations after his high school and college success, having been touted as a generational prospect. The Clemson product (like the rest of the Jaguars) endured a forgettable season under head coach Urban Meyer as a rookie, however. The latter’s firing paved the way for the arrival of Doug Pederson, known to be a QB-friendly coach. Lawrence improved in 2022, earning a Pro Bowl nod and helping guide the team to the divisional round of the postseason.

This past campaign saw the 24-year-old battle multiple nagging injuries, and he was forced to miss a game for the first time in his career. Jacksonville failed to find a rhythm on offense throughout the year, and a late-season slump left the team out of the playoffs altogether after a division title seemed to be in hand. In two seasons under Pederson, Lawrence has totaled 46 touchdown passes and 22 interceptions – figures which fall short of what the pair were thought to be capable of while working together. Nonetheless, no changes under center will be forthcoming.

Following in line with his previous stance on the matter, general manager Trent Baalke confirmed last month extension talks with Lawrence have begun. The former college national champion will be on his rookie contract through 2025 once the Jaguars exercise his fifth-year option, but megadeals finalized in a QB’s first year of extension eligibility have become commonplace around the NFL. Lawrence profiles as Jacksonville’s answer under center for years to come, something of particular significance given the team’s past struggles to find a long-term producer at the position.

Four young passers inked second contracts averaging between $51MM and $55MM per year last offseason. Lawrence is positioned to be the next in line for a similar deal, though his generally pedestrian stats could hinder his leverage to a degree. At a minimum, he will see an AAV much higher than that of his 2025 option ($25.66MM) once his next contract is in place.

Zach Wilson (No. 2, Jets)

The Jets’ decision to take Sam Darnold third overall in 2018 did not prove fruitful, and in short order the team was in need of another young passer. Wilson was immediately installed as the team’s starter, but in both his rookie campaign and his follow-up season he struggled in a number of categories. A lack of improvement regarding accuracy and interception rates made it clear a more proven commodity would be required for a team internally viewed as being a quarterback away from contention.

That drove the decision to trade for Aaron Rodgers last offseason, a move aimed at relying on the future Hall of Famer in the short term while allowing Wilson to develop as a backup. Four snaps into the season, though, Rodgers’ Achilles tear upended that plan and thrust Wilson back into a starting role. Playing behind a struggling (and injury-marred) offensive line, the BYU alum guided an offense which finished 29th in scoring and 31st in yardage. In the wake of the poor showing, owner Woody Johnson publicly disparaged Wilson in vowing to upgrade the QB2 spot.

With Tyrod Taylor now in place (and Rodgers aiming to continue playing into his 40s), Wilson’s New York days are believed to be numbered. The Jets have given him permission to seek a trade, which comes as little surprise given the team’s decision to bench him on a few occasions over the past two seasons. A fresh start for both parties could be beneficial, although value on a deal will come well short of the capital used to draft him. Offers for the 24-year-old have nevertheless been received, so a deal could be struck in relatively short order.

Once that takes place, New York will have once again cut bait with a failed QB project. Wilson could follow Darnold’s path in taking on a backup gig before receiving another starting opportunity with a new team. For the time being, though, he will aim to find the ideal supporting role in an attempt to rebuild his value.

Trey Lance (No. 3, 49ers)

Aggressively pursuing a Jimmy Garoppolo upgrade, San Francisco moved up the board at a substantial cost. The 49ers sent the Dolphins a package including three first-round picks and a third-rounder, banking on Lance’s athletic upside. After a year sitting behind Garoppolo, the North Dakota State product was positioned to take over in 2022.

However, a Week 2 ankle fracture cut Lance’s season was cut short; this proved to mark an end to his San Francisco tenure. In all, Lance made just four regular-season starts with the 49ers, as the 2022 season unintentionally resulted in Brock Purdy taking over the starter’s role. The emergence of the former Mr. Irrelevant paved the way for Lance to be traded, but his injury history and inconsistent play when on the field limited his trade market. The Cowboys won a brief bidding war, acquiring Lance for a fourth-round pick.

Lance did not see the field in his first season as a Cowboy, but Dallas will keep him in the fold for the 2024 campaign. He will thus be in line to serve as Dak Prescott’s backup for a year; the latter is not under contract for 2025, but he remains firmly in the team’s plans. Unless Prescott were to depart in free agency next offseason, a path to a No. 1 role does not currently exist for Lance.

The 23-year-old could nevertheless still be viewed as a worthwhile developmental prospect given his age and athletic traits. The Lance acquisition has clearly proven to be a mistake on the 49ers’ part, though, especially given the success the team has had without him. What-ifs will remain a part of this 49ers chapter’s legacy (particularly if the current core cannot get over the Super Bowl hump) considering the substantial price paid to move up the board and the draft picks not available in subsequent years as a result.

Justin Fields (No. 11, Bears)

Like San Francisco, Chicago did not wait on the chance of having a top QB prospect fall down the draft board. The Bears moved two first-round picks, along fourth- and fifth-rounders, to move ahead of the Patriots and add a presumed long-term answer under center. Fields saw playing time early enough (10 starts as a rookie), but his performance that year left plenty of room for improvement.

A head coaching change from Matt Nagy to Matt Eberflus also brought about the arrival of a new offensive coordinator (Luke Getsy). Fields did not make the expected jump as a passer in the new system, averaging less than 150 yards per game through the air and taking 55 sacks. He became only the third quarterback to record over 1,000 yards on the ground in a season, though, showcasing his rushing ability. The Ohio State product made only incremental progress in 2023, despite an improved offensive line and the trade acquisition of wideout D.J. Moore.

As a result, speculation steadily intensified that general manager Ryan Poles – who was not a member of the regime which drafted Fields – would move on from the 25-year-old. Fields received endorsements from Eberflus, Poles and others in the building, but the team decided to move on and pave the way for (in all likelihood) Caleb Williams being drafted first overall. A conditional sixth-round pick sent Fields to the Steelers, his preferred destination.

In Pittsburgh, Fields is slated to begin as the backup Russell Wilson. Both passers face uncertain futures beyond 2024, especially with the former not on track to have his fifth-year option exercised. Fields could play his way into the starter’s role in relatively short order given the 10-year age gap between he and Wilson, who flamed out in Denver. That, in turn, could see his market value jump higher than that of the other non-Lawrence members of this class given their respective situations.

Mac Jones (No. 15, Patriots)

Drafted to become the Tom Brady successor of both the short- and long-term future, Jones was immediately installed as New England’s starter. Coming off a national title with Alabama, he appeared to set the stage for a long Patriots tenure by earning a Pro Bowl nod and finishing second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. Nothing went according to plan for team or player beyond that point, however.

Jones saw Josh McDaniels depart in the 2022 offseason, leaving head coach Bill Belichick to hand the offensive reins over to Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. That move resulted in widespread struggles on offense, and Jones regressed. Following a 2021 playoff berth, the inability to venture back to the postseason the following year led to increased speculation about the team’s future under center. That became particularly true amid reports of tension between Jones and Belichick.

With both coach and quarterback under pressure to rebound, optimism emerged when the Patriots hired Bill O’Brien as OC. That move did not produce the desired results, though, and by the end of the year Jones was benched in favor of Bailey Zappe. With a Belichick-less regime set to start over at the quarterback spot, the former was dealt to the Jaguars for a sixth-round pick.

Jones has publicly stated the deal (which sent him to his hometown team) was a mutual parting of ways. A backup gig behind Lawrence could allow the pocket passer to regain some of his confidence generated by his rookie success, but his showings over the past two seasons will no doubt give teams considerable pause with respect to viewing him as a starter down the road. Jones’ athletic profile is also a less favorable one than that of Wilson, Lance and especially Fields, something which could further consign him to QB2 duties for the foreseeable future.

Four quarterbacks are considered locks to hear their names called on Day 1 of the 2024 draft, one in which each of the top three picks may very well once again be used on signal-callers. Other QB prospects are also in contention for Round 1 consideration, meaning they and their new teams will be subject to considerable scrutiny. To put it lightly, all parties involved will hope the top of this year’s class pans out better than that of its 2021 counterpart.

5 Key Stories: 3/24/24 – 3/31/24

March 31st, 2024 at 2:14pm CST by Adam La Rose

Teams continue to make adjustments to their rosters in advance of the upcoming draft, something which has produced a few notable moves in recent days. The recent league meetings also produced a number of noteworthy developments. Here is a quick recap of this past week’s top stories from around the NFL:

  • Eagles, Jets Agree To Reddick Trade: The Eagles’ edge rush group faced a number of questions this offseason, owing in large part to the uncertain status of Haason Reddick. The two-time Pro Bowler was traded to the Jets with one year remaining on his contract, although a new deal could be coming in short order. In exchange, Philadelphia will receive a conditional 2026 third-round pick; the selection could become a second-rounder if the 29-year-old logs a snap share above 67.5% and records at least 10 sacks. The Eagles signed Bryce Huff to a lucrative free agent deal, casting further doubt on Reddick’s future. The latter will now join a strong Jets defensive front and either secure a new big-money pact or set himself up as one of the top members of the 2025 free agent class.
  • NFL Approves New Kickoff Format: Among the rule changes approved by the league’s owners, the most notable one was the decision to green-light a dramatically new alignment for kickoffs. The proposal (which passed by a vote of 29-3) will see the NFL essentially adopt – on a one-year, trial basis – the system which was in place in the XFL over the past two years. The change is aimed at staving off the steep decline in kick returns the NFL has seen in recent years, punctuated by a Super Bowl which included all 13 kickoffs resulting in a touchback. The league also agreed to push back the 2024 trade deadline by seven days; it will now fall on the Tuesday following Week 9.
  • Jaguars Extend Oluokun: Jacksonville added Foye Oluokun as a free agent in 2022, and the team has elected to keep him the fold for the foreseeable future. The 28-year-old inked a four-year extension which has a maximum value of $48MM and includes $22.5MM fully guaranteed. Oluokun – who has led the NFL in tackles twice in his career – is now under contract through 2028. The ex-Falcon ranked fourth in the league in terms of annual average value amongst linebackers on his previous contract ($15MM). That figure will be lowered via this extension, but it ensures Oluokun will remain a key member of Jacksonville’s defense for years to come while providing financial security relative to the remaining term on his old pact.
  • Browns Set To Extend Stefanski, Berry: Changes on the sidelines and in the front office have been commonplace for the Browns, but that trend is set to come to an end with respect to head coach Kevin Stefanski and general manager Andrew Berry. Both members of that pair are in line to receive contract extensions. A recent report indicated that would be the case, and with only one year remaining on their current deals a re-up would be sensible. Stefanski has earned Coach of the Year honors twice during his four-year run in Cleveland, helping lead the team to the postseason in 2020 and ’23. Berry’s tenure (which will of course be defined by the blockbuster trade acquisition of Deshaun Watson, one which has to date not gone as planned) has included a number of savvy veteran and draft additions. Both staffers should be in place for years to come once their new deals are signed.
  • Clowney Signs With Panthers: Continuing his career arc of short-term stints around the league, Jadeveon Clowney has once again found a new team. The former first overall pick signed a two-year, $20MM deal with the Panthers following the success of his one-and-done Ravens tenure. A new deal with Baltimore (as well as one with the Jets) seemed to be a possibility, but the Rock Hill, South Carolina native and former Gamecock ultimately elected to join a Panthers team which no longer has Brian Burns or hybrid linebacker Frankie Luvu in the fold. Clowney matched his career high with 9.5 sacks last season, and a repeat of that performance in 2024 would help Carolina’s rebuilding efforts on defense. It could also help the 31-year-old secure a long-term future in Carolina after spending time with five teams over the past six seasons.

5 Key Stories: 3/17/23 – 3/24/23

March 24th, 2024 at 4:32pm CST by Adam La Rose

With free agency having slowed down considerably compared to the opening days of the league year, attention will increasingly turn toward the draft. The first week between the two major offseason checkpoints saw a number of notable developments, though. Here is a quick recap of the league’s top stories from the past seven days:

  • Chiefs Deal Sneed To Titans: Even before L’Jarius Sneed received the franchise tag, it was expected he would be traded away by the Chiefs at some point. The defending champions made Chris Jones a higher financial priority, and he has a new long-term deal in place. Shortly after reports emerged detailing the hurdles a Sneed contract represented to a Titans acquisition, the veteran corner was indeed dealt to Tennessee. Kansas City received a 2025 third-round pick as compensation, while the teams swapped 2024 seventh-rounders. Upon arrival, Sneed inked a $19MM-per-year extension including $55MM guaranteed to take the place of his tag. The 27-year-old will thus find himself near the top of the cornerback market for the foreseeable future in his new home, while the Chiefs will move forward with their incumbent secondary starters and avoid a Sneed free agent departure in 2025.
  • Sutton’s Arrest Warrant Prompts Lions Release: On March 7, an arrest warrant was issued for cornerback Cameron Sutton. One day after that went public, the Lions elected to release Sutton with a post-June 1 designation. The 29-year-old is wanted on a charge of domestic battery by strangulation stemming from an incident in Lutz, Florida. Police are still unable to locate Sutton, who signed a three-year deal with Detroit last offseason. He remained a full-time starter during his debut campaign, but the team (which has already made multiple CB additions this offseason) has a vacancy to fill in the secondary. The guaranteed money on Sutton’s pact will be voided, and Detroit will see $1.5MM in cap savings for this season as a result of the move.
  • Browns Extend Jeudy: Jerry Jeudy has yet to play a game for the Browns, but the former first-round receiver already has a three-year extension in place worth up to $58MM. Jeudy is now on the books through 2027, and he will receive $41MM guaranteed at signing. The 24-year-old’s play to date has not matched expectations given his draft stock, but the Browns will attempt to maximize his potential with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Amari Cooper has proven to be an effective lead receiver in Cleveland, but he is under contract for only one more year at the moment. Jeudy will be in place as the team’s No. 2 wideout now and into the future regardless of what happens with Cooper.
  • Cardinals, Chargers Open To Trading Down: In consecutive days, both Monti Ossenfort (Cardinals) and Joe Hortiz (Chargers) publicly stated they are willing to trade the fourth and fifth selections in next month’s draft, respectively. Quarterbacks are widely expected to come off the board with the top three picks, and Chicago, Washington and New England are set to retain their places in the order. As such, Arizona and Los Angeles are the top targets for teams looking to maneuver up the order, likely to add the next-best quarterback available. The Cardinals and Chargers each have a need at receiver, and Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers project as the best non-QBs in the 2024 class. It would come as no surprise if either team stayed put to select their preferred wideout, but interest in a swap will no doubt pick up over the coming weeks.
  • Williams Chooses Jets: Mike Williams found himself on the market after being cut by the Chargers in a cost-shedding move. The veteran deep threat quickly drew interest from a number of teams, but his Jets visit yielded agreement on a one-year deal. Williams will earn a base value of $10MM, but another $5MM is available via incentives; the prove-it nature of the pact comes as little surprise since the 29-year-old will be coming off a torn ACL in 2024. The Jets will aim to have a healthy Aaron Rodgers under center next season, but upgrades at the receiver spot were a top offseason priority. If Williams can return to his previous 1,000-yard form, his addition will prove to be effective and his 2025 free agent value will see a notable spike.

Prospect Profile: Michael Penix Jr.

March 23rd, 2024 at 9:18pm CST by Ely Allen

At this point, it’s starting to become extremely clear who we should be expecting to see as the first player and quarterback taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft next month. We also know UNC quarterback Drake Maye is fighting off LSU Heisman winner Jayden Daniels as QB2 of the draft and that Michigan national champion J.J. McCarthy and Oregon’s Bo Nix are enjoying their own late surges towards the first round. One other quarterback seems to polarize more than the rest, as Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. continues to work to prove himself as a top football player.

As a three-star recruit out of Tampa Bay Tech HS (Florida), Penix struggled to stand out in the talent-laden state of Florida. He quickly picked up local offers from Group of 5 schools like USF and FAU before attending a camp at Tennessee and earning his first Power 5 offer. 10 months later, after receiving only a few other offers, Penix committed to the Volunteers. After the school’s firing of Butch Jones, the head coach to whom he had committed, Penix decommitted, taking the week before an early National Signing Day to consider his options before ultimately signing to attend Indiana.

Penix would redshirt his freshman year with the Hoosiers, appearing in only three games before tearing his ACL. After returning from his injury, Penix entered his redshirt freshman year as the starter, winning the job over incumbent quarterback Peyton Ramsey. In six starts, Penix led the Hoosiers to a 5-1 start to the season while completing 68.8 percent of his pass attempts for 1,394 yards and 10 touchdowns with four interceptions. He also added 119 yards on the ground for two touchdowns. Unfortunately, Penix’s season ended there after a sternoclavicular joint sprain and clavicle fracture on his non-throwing, right shoulder would keep him out for the remainder of the season.

Penix would return in 2020 as the starter once again and once again lead the team to a 5-1 start. His completion percentage suffered as the team leaned more heavily on his arm, but he would increase his production to 1,645 passing yards and 14 touchdowns before suffering a second torn ACL to end his third season. In his final year as the Indiana starter, Penix looked like a shell of his former self. The Hoosiers started the season 2-3 as Penix threw for 939 yards, four touchdowns, and seven interceptions in five starts while only completing 53.7 percent of his passes. His time in Bloomington ended, once again, with his fourth season-ending injury, this one a dislocated joint in his throwing shoulder.

Instead of laying down to watch his football career die, Penix opted to hop into the transfer portal. Thanks to his utilized redshirt and the extra year of eligibility granted to players in school during the 2020 COVID-19 impacted season, the lefty passer still had two years of eligibility left, and finally, in Seattle, Penix was offered the opportunity to play for a contender. Penix became the starter at Washington and immediately led the Huskies to a winning season following their 4-8 2021 campaign.

At Washington, Penix rediscovered his accuracy, completing just over 65 percent of his passes in both years with the team. During the team’s 2022 campaign, Penix led the country in passing yards per game en route to becoming the school’s all-time single-season passing leader with 4,641 yards while scoring 31 touchdowns through the air and four more on the ground. He followed that up with a 14-1 season that would take Washington to the National Championship game, ultimately falling to McCarthy’s Wolverines. Still, in 2023, Penix broke his own single-season record with 4,903 passing yards (thanks to two extra games) and passed for 36 touchdowns while rushing for three more. He led the FBS in passing yards, but even with his extra games, he also led the country in passing yards per game for the second season in a row.

Now, finally out of eligibility, Penix is ready to head to the NFL following a successful college career. He brings an aggressive approach to the passing game with an ability to deliver quick strikes and throw competitive balls downfield for his receivers to win. He doesn’t lack confidence, showing a willingness to make every throw at every level of the field but could still stand to improve in some of those areas, namely intermediate passes across the middle of the field. This can lead to a few missed passes and, while he did post impressive completion percentages, ranking 28th in the country at 65.4 in 2023, his fellow draft candidates, USC’s Caleb Williams (12th at 68.6), Daniels (seventh at 72.2), McCarthy (sixth at 72.3), and Nix (first at 77.4), all showed better accuracy this past year.

Other nitpicks on Penix revolve around inconsistent mechanics and an inability to sense pressure (perhaps a symptom of left-handedness in a right-hander’s game), but the biggest areas of concern surround his health. Before transferring, Penix suffered four season-ending injuries in as many years. Many placed the utmost importance on his medical evaluations at the NFL scouting combine, and Ian Rapoport of NFL Network delivered the good news that his medical testing “went well,” claiming that “any medical questions that Penix had seem to be kind of pushed a little back under the radar.”

With that, let the speculation begin. The claims of Penix’s polarization come from the fact that mock drafts place him anywhere from No. 8 overall to the second and third round. Both ESPN’s Mel Kiper and Dane Brugler of The Athletic rank Penix as the draft’s sixth-best passing prospect, following the five mentioned above. Both pundits also have him slipping into the second round of the draft, with both citing injuries as a main concern. Perhaps, they believe that his combine clearance was more sweeping his injury potential under the rug than declaring it a non-issue.

Still, it only takes one front office to disagree. The consensus seems to be that Penix has first-round potential in his game, but he has to stay on the field in order to show it. If any team sees his 28 straight healthy games at Washington and feels confident about his health, or if any team feels confident in their offensive line’s ability to keep Penix on the field, there’s absolutely a possibility that we hear his name called on Day 1 of the draft, especially if we see a run on quarterbacks early. If not, there are several teams with temporary or non-cemented options at quarterback that could easily take a flyer on Penix in the second round.

The Bears, Commanders, Patriots, and Broncos have been seen as teams obviously looking to select a passer in the first round, but the Giants, Vikings, and Raiders could also be tempted. New York has never showed much commitment to Daniel Jones and could be interested in drafting his heir apparent. The Vikings brought in Sam Darnold, who has never spent a full season as a starter, so they may be interested in a young passer to mold. Las Vegas brought in Gardner Minshew to compete with Aidan O’Connell but may be interested in a passer with more potential upside. Also keep an eye on teams like the Seahawks and Rams, who have aging veterans and may want to bring in a rookie to compete with their other young, developing backups.

There’s no limit of possibilities for where we may see Penix go in late-April. He may be the league’s first left-handed quarterback taken in the first round since Tua Tagovailoa, or he could free fall into the second or third round. There are plenty more mock drafts to come between now and then around the internet, so keep an eye on the consistent rise and fall of Penix’s draft stock in the weeks between now and the draft.

2024 Top 50 NFL Free Agents

March 7th, 2024 at 11:03pm CST by Sam Robinson

With the franchise tag application deadline in the rearview mirror, we have a clearer picture of who will be available in free agency. Barring 11th-hour deals, starting quarterbacks and a future Hall of Fame defensive tackle will drive the class in the 32nd year of full-fledged free agency in the NFL.

In addition to the Kirk Cousins–Baker Mayfield–Chris Jones trio, interior offensive linemen will cash in as part of this year’s crop. Last year’s tackle class was a bit deeper; this year, O-line dollars figure to be funneled inside.

The NFL’s legal tampering period, which gives players a window to speak with other teams and reach unofficial agreements, begins at 11am CT on March 11. The new league year opens two days later, though much of the frenzy will take place during the tampering period.

This list ranks free agents by earning potential, with guaranteed money serving as the general measuring stick. This is one of the great running back classes in free agency annals, but even though some of the RBs’ accomplishments far eclipse many of the players ranked above them, the position’s market has absorbed numerous hits. Older standouts, including potential Hall of Famers, not having the earning power they once did also factors into this equation.

Here is this year’s PFR top 50 free agents list, along with potential landing spots for each player.

1. Kirk Cousins, QB. Age in Week 1: 36

Cousins hitting free agency in his prime six years ago brought countless rumors about his value and future. Quarterback movement was less common then. Cousins made that foray count, scoring a landmark deal from the Vikings – a fully guaranteed three-year, $84MM pact. We are back here again because Cousins and the Vikings could not agree on a fourth extension, with the sides’ 2023 talks breaking down in part because Minnesota refused to provide guarantees into a third year. Cousins is coming off an Achilles tear, but given the need here, the 13th-year veteran is back atop a free agent value list.

Thanks to Cousins’ two-franchise tag path out of Washington in the late 2010s, the Vikings could not realistically tag their quarterback. No one has been tagged a third time since the 2006 CBA made doing so prohibitive. While the Vikings and Cousins have each expressed interest in a reunion, time is running out due to the structure of Cousins’ third Vikings contract. And a clear threat has emerged.

If Minnesota cannot re-sign Cousins before the start of the 2024 league year, $28.5MM in dead money will move onto the team’s 2024 cap sheet. Considering the dead cap awaiting and the Vikings holding the No. 11 overall draft slot, the team is in crunch time at quarterback. Minnesota will need to decide on perhaps one final contract with one of the NFL’s all-time financial mavens, and with Justin Jefferson interested in the team’s decision with the quarterback that helped him to a historic start, the NFC North club is navigating a layered process.

Never confused with a top-tier quarterback, Cousins has been in the league’s upper third for much of his career. The former Washington fourth-rounder had thrown 18 TD passes compared to five INTs before the Week 8 Achilles tear shut him down, finishing this productive stretch with Jefferson sidelined three games. QBR slotted Cousins seventh last season but rehabbing this injury in his mid-30s certainly will not make teams feel great about the offers required to win this derby. Still, this is the cost of doing business with above-average QBs.

Cousins has all of one Pro Bowl as a non-alternate, coming in 2022. Illustrating the value this position brings and Cousins having the upper hand on the Vikings in negotiations thanks to the fully guaranteed deal he landed in 2018, the Michigan State alum has made more than $231MM in his career. That number will almost definitely balloon past $300MM by 2025. Cousins has signed deals worth $28MM, $33MM and $35MM per year. Although Derek Carr scored a $37.5MM-AAV Saints pact and a practical guarantee of $70MM, Cousins’ consistency and financial shrewdness may still top that even near the end of his mid-30s.

Only Fran Tarkenton and Tommy Kramer have served as Vikings QB1s longer than Cousins, but Minnesota also must begin planning for the future. The team has seen Cousins and Jefferson form a dominant connection; Minnesota has also won just one playoff game since signing Cousins, failing to reach the postseason in three of his healthy years. If the Vikings pass and set their sights on the draft, who will make the payment?

Facing incomprehensible dead money due to the Russell Wilson extension going bust, the Broncos could certainly use Cousins as a bridge. Denver’s dead cap — $85MM over the next two years once Wilson is designated a post-June 1 cut — will make this signing difficult. The Broncos bowed out of the Cousins sweepstakes six years ago, signing Case Keenum; they may not have the resources to make a competitive bid now.

Cousins-to-Atlanta is producing enough smoke it is time to closely monitor this relocation; this reality would put Terry Fontenot’s skill-position draftees in better position to thrive, after Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder held them back. While Justin Fields odds pointed the Bears QB to Atlanta last week, it looks like the Falcons prefer a proving passing option. Hiring ex-Rams QBs coach Zac Robinson as OC, the Falcons appear the Vikings’ top threat if Cousins hits the tampering period unsigned.

Best fits: Falcons, Vikings, Broncos

2. Baker Mayfield, QB. Age in Week 1: 29

Were this an accomplishments-based ranking, Mayfield would not sniff this tier. Starting QBs in their primes get paid, as they rarely reach the market. Mayfield is not exactly a set-it-and-forget-it option, as this era has featured less QB patience than previous NFL periods. But he is being linked in the $35MM-per-year range. That marks a staggering transformation from 2023, when one team was willing to make the former No. 1 pick its starter favorite.

Mayfield turned down slightly more lucrative offers to vie against only Kyle Trask — after the Bucs passed on Will Levis, whom they brought in for a “30” visit — last year. The bet on a return to form in Dave Canales’ system paid off, though it is important to note how far the ex-Browns QB1 fell over the previous two seasons. Rumblings of a franchise-level extension — in the $30MM-plus-AAV range, when that number meant more — surrounded Mayfield’s 2021 offseason, which followed the ’20 Browns nearly upsetting the Chiefs in the divisional round. That remains Cleveland’s lone Round 2 playoff run since 1989. Had Mayfield built on the progress he showed in 2020, an alternate NFL reality — in which the Falcons have Deshaun Watson and the Bucs pursue a different post-Tom Brady stopgap — probably ensues. But the ’21 season tanked Mayfield’s stock, which had farther to fall in 2022.

An early-season injury to Mayfield’s non-throwing shoulder plagued him in 2021, and after the Browns’ unrefusable Watson offer led Mayfield to Carolina, horrid form keyed a last-place QBR finish in 2022. Mayfield’s 2023 QBR (54.3) trails his 2020 number (65.5), and the Bucs went from 3-0 to 4-7 to the divisional round. This rollercoaster ride provided a nice microcosm of Mayfield’s pro career, which also involved a steep 2019 dip due largely to Freddie Kitchens being overmatched as a head coach. But the inconsistency should matter here, to a degree.

If the Bucs let Mayfield hit the market, the statuses of Cousins and Justin Fields will be intertwined with his as teams without top-three draft real estate determine their options. It is not out of the question clubs could view Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew or Ryan Tannehill at a far lower price as a more cost-effective option than Mayfield. The Giants faced same question last year; was there a team willing to go to the $40MM-per-year place had Big Blue let Daniel Jones hit free agency? The Jones contract has likely come up in Mayfield negotiations, complicating the Bucs’ decision.

Mayfield established new career-high marks in TD passes (28) and yards (4,044). He also limited his INTs to 10 in Canales’ offense. The Bucs gave Mayfield input in their OC search, which produced ex-Rams OC Liam Coen, providing an obvious signal they do not intend to let him get away. The Bucs just made the playoffs with Brady’s $35.1MM void years-driven dead money on their payroll. While Mayfield’s deal would be backloaded, Tampa Bay would not see too much change here with Mayfield set to go from a $4MM base salary to likely beyond $30MM.

Geno Smith’s three-year, $75MM deal should serve as Mayfield’s floor, as it is the veteran-QB1 basement presently. But Smith agreed to Seahawks-friendly terms. A pay-as-you-go contract is unlikely here, with the Jones and Derek Carr deals respectively producing practical guarantees of $81MM and $70MM. Mayfield is also four years younger than Smith. Mayfield might not match Jones and Carr for AAV, but the Bucs will need to pay him more per year than they did Brady ($25MM).

Passing would make the Bucs start over from a poor draft slot to do so (No. 25), arming Mayfield’s camp with more leverage. The Vikings being unable to complete a deal with Cousins could make them a Mayfield suitor, and while the Patriots have quite a few connections to the former Heisman winner — including Eliot Wolf and OC Alex Van Pelt — it does not make too much sense for the Pats taking this route given the shape of their roster. With Fields and Cousins in the mix and the Steelers setting their sights lower, Mayfield’s options are still somewhat limited. That will play into the Bucs’ hands; both sides need to be careful here.

Best fits: Buccaneers, Falcons, Vikings

3. Chris Jones, IDL. Age in Week 1: 30

The Chiefs secured dynasty status after trading Tyreek Hill and, barring some playoff surges, missing on the Frank Clark contract. They have not paid cornerbacks during this stretch, highlighting the importance of Steve Spagnuolo’s centerpiece defender. (L’Jarius Sneed’s franchise tag, coming with heavy trade rumors, points to the Chiefs going in this direction again.) Patrick Mahomes and, especially over the past year, Travis Kelce receive most of the attention. Jones has been the clear third Chiefs pillar during this period, racking up five All-Pro honors and being the only pure defensive tackle in the sack era (1982-present) to record two 15-sack seasons.

Jones has also been durable, missing more than two games in a season just twice and suiting up for all but one contest during Kansas City’s back-to-back Super Bowl-winning campaigns. That makes the Chiefs’ defensive struggles in Week 1, during Jones’ holdout, notable. Rightfully asking for money in the Aaron Donald neighborhood, Jones bet on himself rather than accept a Chiefs offer that placed him on the same plane as less proven DTs — in the second tier that formed thanks to 2023’s Jeffery Simmons, Quinnen Williams, Daron Payne and Dexter Lawrence extensions. With Nick Bosa raising the defender ceiling to $34MM per year in September, Jones reaching $30MM AAV is in play on the open market. The Chiefs’ top priority is preventing Jones reaching free agency.

Kansas City franchise-tagged Jones in 2020, which always made a 2024 tag – at 120% of his pre-restructure 2023 salary, pushing the total past $32MM — unrealistic. Although Jones has said on multiple occasions he wants to stay in Missouri, the Chiefs’ negotiations last year created the risk of losing one of the best players in franchise history. From a pass-rushing standpoint, Jones has surpassed Donald (the current Donald version, that is) during the Chiefs’ back-to-back Super Bowl-winning years. He is three years younger than the Rams all-time great. Donald needed to threaten retirement to secure his landmark raise at 31; Jones reaching the open market healthy — in a year when a record cap spike occurred — effectively maximizes his leverage.

Javon Hargrave scored a $21MM-per-year pact; it took only $40MM fully guaranteed for the 49ers to land him. From an accomplishments and impact standpoint, Jones’ free agency is closer to Reggie White’s than Hargrave. White was 31 when his 1993 free agency tour commenced. Albert Haynesworth (2009) and Ndamukong Suh (2015) scored record-setting deals when they hit the market. Jones probably will not top Bosa’s AAV, but eclipsing the current DT guarantee high (Williams’ $66MM) seems likely.

The Chiefs have shown they can get by after losing corners; they have not shown they can win without Jones, who has made countless pivotal plays while rushing from inside and outside. The most recent led to a 49ers overtime field goal, which set up a championship-cementing Chiefs drive. Kansas City will need to make a monster offer to keep Jones off the market, but at this point, the champs must prepare to outbid other teams as their future Hall of Fame DT is less than a week away from testing the market.

Bears GM Ryan Poles was in Kansas City when the Chiefs drafted Jones in the 2016 second round, and Chicago is likely to restart its QB contract clock via a Caleb Williams pick soon. The Texans also have a rookie-QB contract (and Will Anderson on a rookie pact) around which Jones’ guaranteed years could be structured. With budgets increasing as of the recent cap news, teams could enter this bidding for one of the best defenders to ever hit free agency.

Best fits: Chiefs, Texans, Bears

4. Christian Wilkins, IDL. Age in Week 1: 28

The stars have aligned for Wilkins. From the Dolphins’ cap status to Justin Madubuike being franchise-tagged and the rest of the high-level D-tackles from Wilkins’ draft class being extended last year, the charismatic Clemson alum is about to reap the rewards of hitting free agency at this point. Excelling against the run and coming off his best pass-rushing season, the five-year veteran is likely to land a deal in the ballpark of those given to the rest of the 2019 first-round DT contingent. If the Chiefs re-sign Chris Jones, suddenly the player the Dolphins shied away from extending is the market’s top D-tackle prize.

Negotiations dragged on last summer, and other deals set the market. The Commanders extended Daron Payne in March, while the Titans reached an agreement with Jeffery Simmons in April. Dexter Lawrence followed in May, and the Jets hammered out their Quinnen Williams re-up just before training camp. Each pact was worth between $22.5-$24MM per year, creating a new second tier behind Aaron Donald’s outlier accord, and brought between $46-$47.9MM guaranteed at signing. This is a narrow range, making it a bit odd nothing was finalized. The Dolphins offered a top-10 DT salary, but that falls short of the Payne-Simmons-Lawrence-Williams range. It is possible the Dolphins also used 2019 first-round DT Ed Oliver’s deal, which came in lower ($17MM AAV, $24.5MM guaranteed at signing) as a comp in these talks. That would naturally introduce a complication.

A September rumor suggested the Dolphins were hesitant to go into the above-referenced price range due to Wilkins’ low sack output (11.5 sacks from 2019-22). He responded with a career year, tallying nine sacks — twice as many as his previous best — and 23 QB hits (10 more than his prior best). Wilkins finished 13th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate metric. This came after ESPN’s run stop win rate metric viewed Wilkins as a dominant presence, ranking him first in 2022 and second in 2021. Wilkins, who also deflected 15 passes from 2020-22, adding a pass rush piece will be valuable soon.

Residing in poor cap shape, the Dolphins already released Jerome Baker and Emmanuel Ogbah and are set to cut Xavien Howard. They have also paid two D-line pieces — DE Bradley Chubb, DT Zach Sieler — eight figures per year and have Jaelan Phillips presumably on the extension radar. Will Wilkins, acquired during Brian Flores’ first year, need to find his money elsewhere? Flores’ Vikings could be waiting.

Best fits: Texans, Vikings, Patriots

5. Jonathan Greenard, Edge. Age in Week 1: 27

Already a lower-profile franchise, the Texans saw their on-field work drift off the radar as their Bill O’Brien-run operation cratered and produced two subsequent HC one-and-dones. One of the players who was worth monitoring during this bleak period broke through to help Houston re-emerge under DeMeco Ryans. Greenard delivered a 12.5-sack season, leading the Texans in sacks by a wide margin and providing Will Anderson with a quality bookend.

A fringe tag candidate entering the offseason, Greenard had already tallied an eight-sack season (in 2021) before an injury-plagued 2022 stalled his early-career momentum. But last season brought new territory. Ranking 20th with 33 quarterback pressures, Greenard smashed his career-high with 22 QB hits. He ranked sixth among edge rushers in ESPN’s pass rush win rate metric in 2023. Reinvigorated in Ryans’ scheme, Greenard profiles as a player the Texans want to re-sign. But rumblings about his price will put Houston to the test. An AAV in the $22MM neighborhood could be in the offing for a player whose best work should still be ahead. Teams look eager to land Greenard.

Sitting in the top five in cap space and having Anderson and C.J. Stroud tied to rookie deals through at least 2025, the Texans can afford to make some investments elsewhere. They have begun doing so via the Dalton Schultz re-signing. Beyond its O-line, Houston’s cap sheet is light on big payments. Regularly stocking the roster with two-year deals at lower-middle-class rates, GM Nick Caserio has not gone to this financial territory to retain a player just yet. The Patriots would regularly let this type of player walk, as the Trey Flowers 2019 Detroit defection illustrates. The Texans’ Stroud and Anderson situations, however, support a re-signing.

Best fits: Texans, Commanders, Bears

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NFL Franchise Tag Recipients Since 2013

March 5th, 2024 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

The franchise tag is now past the 30-year mark. Implemented in 1993 to protect teams against losing top free agents, the tag brings key chapters each offseason. Over the past 10 years, 31 of the 32 teams have used it to keep a player off the market. This strategy peaked in 2020, with 14 teams bringing out the franchise tag and one using the lesser-deployed transition tag amid the market uncertainty the COVID-19 pandemic caused.

Some teams have used the tag as a bridge to an extension by the July deadline; others have cuffed players to effectively rent them for a year. Tag-and-trade sequences have become more prevalent as of late; the 2019 Chiefs were on both ends of tag-and-trade maneuvers. And a handful of teams have tagged the same player twice in recent years. The Steelers tagged Le’Veon Bell twice; in the second year (2018), the All-Pro running back became the first player in 21 years to sit out a season after being tagged.

Early in the tag’s fourth decade, here is how teams proceeded with it over the past 10 years.

2013

2014

2015

Given transition tag: TE Charles Clay; Dolphins did not match Bills‘ five-year, $38MM offer sheet

2016

Given transition tag: DE Olivier Vernon; Dolphins rescinded tag, leading to five-year, $85MM Giants deal

2017

2018

Given transition tag: CB Kyle Fuller (Bears); Chicago matched four-year, $56MM Packers offer sheet

2019

2020

Given transition tag: RB Kenyan Drake (Cardinals); signed with Raiders in 2021

2021

2022

2023

2024

Given transition tag: S Kyle Dugger (Patriots); agreed to four-year, $58MM extension

5 Key Stories: 2/18/24 – 2/25/24

February 25th, 2024 at 4:40pm CST by Adam La Rose

The opening of the franchise tag window began an important period on the NFL calendar in advance of free agency. It has already resulted in one notable move, with more sure to follow. In case you missed any of the top stories from this past week, here is a quick recap:

  • Bengals Tag Higgins: The two-week franchise tag window opened on February 20, and the Bengals quickly elected to place the one-year tender on wideout Tee Higgins. The 25-year-old would have headlined the free agent class at his position, and both he and the team have expressed a desire to continue their relationship. As a result, it comes as no surprise he will remain in Cincinnati for at least one more season. The Bengals will soon need to work out a monster extension for Ja’Marr Chase to pair with Joe Burrow’s $55MM-per-year contract, however, leading to questions of a tag-and-trade with Higgins or the chances he departs in 2025. The latter can continue negotiating a multi-year Bengals deal as late as July 15.
  • Salary Cap Sees Historic Increase: The NFL unveiled the salary cap ceiling for 2024, and it checked in at $255.4MM. Annual eight-figure increases have been commonplace in non-pandemic years, but the jump of roughly $30MM compared to 2023 is the largest in league history. Teams were preparing offseason strategies with a cap projection approximately $10MM lower than the actual figure, so it will be interesting to see how the found money will be allocated. As always, a number of teams still have work to do simply to achieve cap compliance in time for the new league year. Efforts on that front will be somewhat easier, though, and teams with considerable spending power will have even more flexibility. Notably, franchise tag and 2025 fifth-year option values are also in place, so much-needed clarity has emerged with respect to financial decisions around the league.
  • Bears Nearing QB Decision? Just like last year, the Bears hold the No. 1 pick in the draft and therefore have the means of selecting a Justin Fields successor. A decision on whether to take that route or (once again) retain Fields is expected to be in place by the upcoming NFL Combine. Teams have inquired about Fields’ availability, and the market Chicago can generate for the 24-year-old will no doubt be a crucial factor in the direction the rebuilding outfit takes. Numerous Bears coaches and executives have publicly praised Fields, who has one season remaining on his rookie contract (with the potential for one more via the fifth-year option). He would offer an intriguing option under center for any number of teams – and a trade would pave the way for a Caleb Williams selection – but it is unknown at this point if the Ohio State product will become available (as likely as that seems to be). Clarity on that front should be coming soon.
  • Raiders Interested In Top Pick: If the Bears do elect to commit to Fields, they could trade out of the No. 1 slot as they did last offseason. In that event, the Raiders would be among the teams eyeing a move up the board. Vegas is currently set to select 13th overall, so a trade-up of that magnitude would come at a massive cost. With Jimmy Garoppolo‘s time in Sin City thought to be over, though, the team is in the market for an addition at the QB spot. Three passers could very well come off the board with the first three selections, so Vegas is among the potential suitors which would need to get aggressive to acquire one of the top 2024 prospects under center. Interestingly, a recent reported noted the Raiders should not be considered a landing spot for Fields in the event he finds himself outside of Chicago this offseason.
  • Evans Likely To Reach Free Agency: The Buccaneers are a team to watch in the build-up to free agency, with Mike Evans set to see his contract expire. The perennial 1,000-yard wideout is not believed to be close on extension talks, which could lead to him heading elsewhere on the open market. Evans, 30, has spent his entire career in Tampa Bay but negotiations this past summer did not yield much traction on a third contract. He would be one of the most sought-after receivers in this year’s free agent class on a short-term arrangement in particular, and the Bucs have a new deal to work out with franchise tag candidate Antoine Winfield Jr. as well as quarterback Baker Mayfield. Talks with the latter have begun, and the team is eyeing an agreement before the new league year. Regardless of that effort, the chance of Evans departing this spring remains.

Examining Statuses Of 2023 RB Franchise Tag Recipients

February 23rd, 2024 at 9:02pm CST by Adam La Rose

One of the key talking points during the 2023 offseason was the continued downward slide of the running back market. High-profile players at the position met to discuss the matter, but to little surprise those efforts did not yield a firm plan for the future.

Three backs were hit with the franchise tag last spring: Saquon Barkley (Giants), Josh Jacobs (Raiders) and Tony Pollard (Cowboys). The latter quickly decided to sign his one-year tender, but the other two took until well past the deadline for extensions to be worked out for their immediate futures to become clear. Both Barkley, and later Jacobs, agreed to one-year pacts worth a higher maximum value than those of the tags. Now, all three face the prospect of a second tag or – far more likely – a trip to free agency.

With the RB market set to feature a longer list of names in 2024 than it did last offseason, teams will have a number of experienced options to choose from. An evaluation of each ’23 tag recipient’s performance this past year will no doubt be a key factor in determining the value for Barkley, Jacobs and Pollard. Here is a side-by-side look at each back’s production in 2022 compared to their totals while playing on the tag (or one-year equivalent):

Saquon Barkley (Age in Week 1: 27)

2022 (16 games): 18.4 carries per game, 1,312 yards, 10 touchdowns (57-338 receiving statline)
2023 (14 games): 17.6 carries per game, 962 yards, six touchdowns (41-280-4 receiving)

The Giants ran up against the 2023 tag deadline needing to find a way forward with both Barkley and quarterback Daniel Jones. The four-year, $160MM commitment made to the latter allowed the tag to be used on the former, despite his track record as the focal point of New York’s offense when healthy. Barkley missed time in 2023 due to an ankle injury, and the Giants underperformed with and without him during a forgettable campaign. Still, New York’s offense will be lacking in playmakers even if Barkley is retained for 2024.

A trip to free agency is now expected, though, something the former No. 2 pick has publicly welcomed. No doors have been shut with respect to a Giants agreement being reached, but few circumstances (if any) have tangibly changed compared to last year. New York made a series of offers with an inversely proportional relationship between AAV and guaranteed figures during last offseason’s negotiations and a different approach this time around would come as a surprise.

Barkley out-rushed backup Matt Breida by 811 yards, so his departure would create a massive void at the RB spot. The Giants are likely to use the No. 6 pick in April’s draft on a much-needed offensive playmaker or a Jones successor, and either move will help their outlook in the passing game. The ground attack would face serious questions without Barkley in the fold or an impactful replacement, although one could be acquired in a more cost-effective manner through the draft or a short-term veteran addition. Barkley’s pedigree could make him the most attractive free agent running back option in 2024, and it would be interesting to see how willing New York would be to win a bidding war.

Josh Jacobs (Age in Week 1: 26)

2022 (17 games): 20 carries per game, 1,653 yards, 12 touchdowns (53-400 receiving)
2023 (13 games): 17.9 carries per game, 805 yards, six touchdowns (37-296 receiving)

Jacobs led the NFL in touches during the only full season with Josh McDaniels at the helm. That resulted in league-leading rushing and scrimmage yard totals, but the Alabama product saw a downturn in usage on the ground and in the air when on the field in 2023. His missed the final four games of the campaign, a span during which McDaniels’ replacement (Antonio Pierce) helped his case to have the interim head coach label removed.

Pierce is indeed in place on a full-time basis, something Jacobs and a number of other players endorsed. Vegas is willing to explore a deal with the two-time Pro Bowler, but the price point will be worth watching with respect to new general manager Tom Telesco. The latter was in charge of a Chargers regime which allowed Austin Ekeler to seek out a trade in lieu of extending him. Ekeler joined Barkley and Jacobs in agreeing to a re-worked pact last offseason which has him in line for free agency this March. Telesco could be inclined to repeat his aversion to a long-term RB commitment in Jacobs’ case.

The Raiders have a potential Jacobs replacement in the form of Zamir White. The 2022 fourth-rounder averaged 4.1 yards per carry this season, and he eclipsed 100 rushing yards in two of the four games Jacobs missed to finish the campaign. White has two years remaining on his rookie contract, so placing him atop the depth chart and drafting another member of the backfield would be a more cost-effective direction to take. Vegas is expected to pursue a quarterback addition, something which could require cap resources otherwise available to Jacobs if it takes the form of a free agent signing or trade acquisition.

Tony Pollard (Age in Week 1: 27)

2022 (16 games): 12.2 carries per game, 1,007 yards, nine touchdowns (39-371-3 receiving)
2023 (17 games): 14.8 carries per game, 1,005 yards, six touchdowns (55-311 receiving)

As expected, the Cowboys moved on from Ezekiel Elliott once no guaranteed salary remained on his deal. That paved the way for Pollard to take on an undisputed No. 1 role in 2023, as showcased by his increased touches. The Memphis alum’s efficiency suffered a notable drop, though; his 4.0 yards per carry in 2023 represented the lowest of his career. With questions in place regarding Pollard’s production as a full-time starter, a lucrative deal would increase expectations in his production further while complicating an already unenviable cap situation.

Dallas’ offseason will be defined in large part by the team’s ability to work out a Dak Prescott extension. The veteran quarterback possess extraordinary leverage in advance of negotiations on a pact both sides are eager to hammer out. The Cowboys will likely also need to prepare market-setting extensions for wideout CeeDee Lamb and edge rusher Micah Parsons over the next two years, and re-signing Pollard would hinder those efforts. Allowing him to depart would create a major vacancy in the backfield, though.

Pollard and second-leading rusher Rico Dowdle (361 yards) are both pending free agents. The leading Cowboys rusher amongst RBs who are under contract for next season is Deuce Vaughn, who received only 23 carries as a rookie. Pollard has considerably more tread left on his tires than Barkley, Jacobs and a number of other free agent backs due to his time as Elliott’s backup. That (coupled with the lack of an obvious successor) could help his value and his effort to secure longer term on his next contact, albeit something which will come off the back of a relatively underwhelming year. At any rate, a tag for Pollard or any other Cowboy would come as a surprise.

The 2023 franchise tag cost $10.1MM at the running back position. In the case of Pollard and Barkley (whose one-year deal contained incentives paired with an identical base value), a second tag would cost $12.1MM. For Jacobs – who landed a slightly higher salary on his contract – a 2024 tag would check in at a price of $13.67MM.

Considering the performances of each member of the trio, their respective teams could aim to take another route this offseason and likely save considerable cap space in the process. Given the nature of their statistical showings, hesitancy on the part of interested teams with respect to a new agreement after another season of wear and tear would also be understandable. Further hurting the market for Barkley, Jacobs and Pollard is the depth of other veteran rushers set to be available.

Ekeler, along with two-time rushing champion Derrick Henry, is a pending free agent. The same is also true of 25-year-olds J.K. Dobbins and D’Andre Swift, who have each played out their rookie contracts and could profile as having higher upside given their age. While this year’s draft class is not viewed as having a plethora of impact prospects, recent history has shown teams can find production after Day 1 when looking to avoid expensive commitments at the position. For Barkley, Jacobs and Pollard, those factors will likely make it a challenge to secure multiple years of guaranteed money on their next pacts, regardless of where they come from.

2024 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates

February 20th, 2024 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

A valuable tool for teams to keep top free agents off the market, the franchise tag has been in existence since 1993. This week brought the opening of the 2024 tag window. Clubs have until 3pm CT on March 5 to apply tags. As the Giants’ situation showed last year, most of the tag-related business comes near the close of this window. Teams will continue to work toward re-signing their respective tag candidates, thus preventing a lofty franchise tender from hitting their cap sheet.

The legal tampering period opens March 11, with the new league year (and official free agency) starting March 13. Once a player is tagged, he has until July 15 to sign an extension with his respective team. Absent an extension agreement by that date, the player must play the 2023 season on the tag (or go the Le’Veon Bell/Dan Williams/Sean Gilbert route, passing on guaranteed money and skipping the season).

High-profile free agents remain weeks away from hitting the market. As PFR’s tag recipients list shows, a handful of players are prevented from taking their services to free agency each year. This year looks to present a few more tag candidates compared to 2023. With a handful of teams determining if they will need to use the tag to prevent a free agency path, here are the players who figure to be tagged or at least generate conversations about being franchised ahead of the March 5 deadline:

Locks

Josh Allen, OLB (Jaguars)
Tag cost: $24MM

GM Trent Baalke did not leave much suspense when he addressed Allen’s future last month. The veteran exec said the 2019 first-round pick will be a Jaguar in 2024, indicating the team would use its franchise tag if necessary. The Jaguars do have Calvin Ridley as a free agent, but the team would owe the Falcons a 2024 second-round pick if it extended the wide receiver’s contract before the start of the league year. The second pick sent to Atlanta will only be a third-rounder if Jacksonville lets Ridley hit free agency. It makes more sense for Jacksonville to circle back to Ridley after allowing him to test the market. An Allen tag effectively ensures that will happen.

Timing his sack breakthrough well, Allen registered a Jags-record 17.5 during his contract year. The five-year Jaguar has combined for 55 QB hits over the past two seasons and ranks top 10 in pressures over the past three. The tag regularly keeps top edge rushers from hitting free agency, and the 26-year-old pass rusher — while obviously wanting to be paid what he’s worth — expressed a desire to stay in Jacksonville long term.

The Jags have regularly unholstered their tag during the 2020s, cuffing Yannick Ngakoue in 2020 and then keeping Cam Robinson off the 2021 and ’22 markets. The team kept Evan Engram out of free agency last year. Robinson signed an extension in 2022, and the Jags re-upped Engram last July. The Ngakoue situation could be notable, as the edge rusher became disgruntled with the Jags and was eventually traded to the Vikings that summer. No signs of that level of trouble are brewing with Allen yet.

Jaylon Johnson, CB (Bears)
Tag cost: $19.8MM

Johnson is likely to become the first franchise-tagged cornerback since the Rams kept Trumaine Johnson off the 2017 market. The Bears are the most recent team to tag a corner, using the transition tag to cuff Kyle Fuller in 2018. They will almost definitely follow suit with Johnson, who has been rumored to be tagged for several weeks. A Ryan Pace-era draftee, Johnson expressed his desire to stay with the Bears ahead of his contract year. With that platform campaign producing some twists and turns, that price has gone up significantly.

After unsuccessful in-season extension talks, the Bears gave Johnson an 11th-hour opportunity to gauge his trade value. The Bears did not alert teams Johnson, 24, was available until the night before the Oct. 31 deadline. Although the Bills and 49ers engaged in talks about a trade, the Bears held out for a first- or second-round pick. Nothing materialized, which will likely come up during the team’s talks with Johnson. The Bears then extended trade pickup Montez Sweat, leaving Johnson in limbo. But the former second-round pick stuck the landing on an impact season. He is firmly in the Bears’ plans, and the team holds more than $66MM in cap space — plenty to squeeze in a tag onto the payroll.

Pro Football Focus’ top-graded corner in 2023, Johnson displayed a new gear that has made him worthy of a tag. Finishing with four interceptions and allowing just a 50.9 passer rating as the closest defender, the Utah alum soared to second-team All-Pro status. The Bears, who last used the tag on Allen Robinson in 2021, made no secret of their interest in retaining Johnson and will have a few more months to negotiate with him as a result of the tag.

Likely tag recipients

Brian Burns, OLB (Panthers)
Projected tag cost: $24MM

The Panthers hiring a new GM and head coach classifies this as just short of a lock, but familiar faces remain. Carolina promoted assistant general manager Dan Morgan to GM and blocked DC Ejiro Evero from departing. Burns has been viewed as a likely tag recipient since last season, after negotiations broke down. The Panthers have not offered a negotiating masterclass here, as Burns has been extension-eligible since the 2022 offseason. Since-fired GM Scott Fitterer had viewed Burns as a re-up candidate for two offseasons, but multiple rounds of trade talks boosted the 2019 first-rounder’s leverage.

In what looks like a mistake, the Panthers passed on a Rams offer that included two first-rounders and a third for Burns at the 2022 trade deadline. Carolina then kept Burns out of 2023 trade talks with Chicago about the No. 1 pick, ultimately sending D.J. Moore to the Windy City for the Bryce Young draft slot. Carolina also kept Burns at the 2023 deadline, as teams looked into the top pass rusher on the NFL’s worst team. Burns also saw his position’s market change via Nick Bosa‘s record-setting extension ($34MM per year). The 49ers’ landmark accord came to pass after Burns had set a $30MM-AAV price point, complicating Morgan’s upcoming assignment.

Burns, 25, has registered at least 7.5 sacks in each of his five seasons. While he has only topped nine in a season once (2022), the two-time Pro Bowler is one of the league’s better edge rushers. Given the Panthers’ history with Burns, it would be borderline shocking to see the team allow the Florida State alum to leave in exchange for merely a third-round compensatory pick.

Burns has said he wants to stay with the Panthers; he is unlikely to have a choice this year. The Panthers last used the tag to keep right tackle Taylor Moton off the market in 2021; the sides agreed to an extension that offseason.

Tee Higgins, WR (Bengals)
Tag cost: $21.82MM

Seeing their hopes of capitalizing on the final year of Higgins’ rookie contract dashed due to Joe Burrow‘s season-ending injury, the Bengals look to be giving strong consideration to keeping the Burrow-Higgins-Ja’Marr Chase trio together for one last ride of sorts. The Bengals hold $59.4MM in cap space — fifth-most currently — and structured Burrow’s extension in a way that makes a Higgins tag palatable. Burrow’s deal does not spike into historic cap territory until 2025.

While a future in which Chase and Higgins are signed long term is more difficult to foresee, the Bengals still carry one of the AFC’s best rosters. It is likely Burrow’s top two weapons remain in the fold for at least one more year. Higgins, 25, did not come close to posting a third straight 1,000-yard season. Burrow’s injury had plenty to do with that, though the former second-round pick started slowly. A Bengals 2023 extension offer underwhelmed Higgins, but the Bengals kept him out of trades. A tag will give Cincinnati the option to rent him for 2024. A tag-and-trade transaction is viewed as unlikely, as the Bengals load up again.

How the organization proceeds beyond 2024 will be a key storyline, but the Bengals — who kept Jessie Bates in similar fashion in 2022 — are positioned well to run back perhaps the NFL’s best receiving tandem. While director of player personnel Duke Tobin stopped short of guaranteeing Higgins will be a Bengal in 2024, signs point to it.

Justin Madubuike, DL (Ravens)
Tag cost: $22.1MM

Seeing their defensive coordinator depart and once again facing questions at outside linebacker, the Ravens have the option of keeping their top 2023 pass rusher off the market. They are probably going to take that route. Madubuike raised his price considerably during an impact contract year, leading the Ravens with 13 sacks. While Mike Macdonald was able to coax surprising seasons from late additions Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy, Madubuike drove Baltimore’s defensive engine and will likely be guaranteed a high salary by signing his franchise tender.

Perennially interested in hoarding compensatory picks, the Ravens have regularly let breakthrough pass rushers walk in free agency. This dates back to the likes of Paul Kruger and Pernell McPhee and subsequently included Za’Darius Smith and Matt Judon. The Ravens have only been able to replace Judon with stopgap options — from Clowney to Van Noy to Justin Houston — and again must figure out a solution alongside Odafe Oweh on the edge. Madubuike, 26, proved too good to let walk; the former third-round pick will once again be expected to anchor Baltimore’s pass rush in 2024.

Antoine Winfield Jr., S (Buccaneers)
Tag cost: $17.12MM

We mentioned Winfield as the Bucs’ most likely tag recipient around the midseason point, and signs now point to that reality coming to pass. The Bucs want to re-sign Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans. The bounce-back quarterback’s tender price would check in at nearly $36MM, and because Evans was attached to a veteran contract, his tag number would come in well north of Higgins’ — at beyond $28MM. As such, the Bucs cuffing Winfield has always made the most sense, and after the second-generation NFL DB’s dominant contract year, it would be stunning to see the team let him walk.

The Bucs have let their recent top free agents test free agency, only to re-sign Shaquil Barrett (2021), Carlton Davis (2022) and Jamel Dean (2023). Winfield may be on a higher plane, having secured first-team All-Pro acclaim last season. Davis and Dean have never made a Pro Bowl; Winfield’s productive and well-regarded 2023 stands to separate him. Winfield, 25, tallied six sacks and three interceptions while forcing an NFL-leading six fumbles. This included a pivotal strip of DJ Chark in the Bucs’ Week 18 win over the Panthers, which clinched them the NFC South title.

Winfield will undoubtedly be eyeing a top-market safety extension. Derwin James established the current standard, $19MM per year, just before the 2022 season. Last year’s safety market did not feature big-ticket prices, for the most part, but the Falcons made Jessie Bates (four years, $64MM) an exception. If Winfield were to reach free agency, he would be expected to eclipse that.

The Bucs, who have used the tag three times in the 2020s, should not be considered likely to let Winfield follow Davis and Dean’s path by speaking with other teams. Tampa Bay has used the tag three times in the 2020s, cuffing Barrett in 2020 and tagging Chris Godwin twice. The team eventually re-signed both, and while the statuses of Mayfield and Evans (and All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs) create a crowded contract queue, the Bucs will certainly be interested in re-upping Winfield.

On tag radar

Saquon Barkley, RB (Giants)
Tag cost: $12MM

Barkley has said he wants to finish his career with the Giants, and the team will meet with the Pro Bowl running back’s camp at the Combine. But a recent report indicated the team is highly unlikely to tag the six-year veteran a second time. The Giants should not be ruled out from reversing course and keeping Barkley, given his importance to an otherwise low-octane offense, but it appears they are prepared to move on if the talented RB does not accept their extension offer this time around. A host of talented backs await in free agency, though Barkley would likely be the top prize were he to reach the market.

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