FEBRUARY 28: Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk writes one “theory” in league circles is that Willis will ultimately land between $20MM and $25MM per season on a two- or three-year contract. That would mark a major contrast to other notable QB deals given Willis’ lack of starting experience, but demand from a long list of suitors could of course produce an even more lucrative agreement.
FEBRUARY 24: Could Malik Willis be the NFL’s next successful quarterback reclamation project?
Teams are certainly interested in finding out. The 2022 third-round pick is set to hit free agency in March with considerable hype about his potential as a starter.
Projections for his market value have grown over the last few months, with NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport predicting that Willis could get anywhere from $30MM to $35MM per year in free agency during a recent appearance on NFL Daily. Host Gregg Rosenthal added that he could see Willis getting as much as $42MM per year. Veteran insider Jordan Schultz adds a $30MM-per-year deal, at least, appears to be a “foregone conclusion” for Willis.
That is a steep price for a quarterback with just six career starts, three of which were rough rookie performances in Tennessee. Willis has made huge strides since arriving in Green Bay in 2024, but those projections would pay him similarly to Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold after they had proven themselves as full-time starters. Willis may not have to take a lower one-year ‘prove it’ deal as Mayfield and Darnold did, but matching or exceeding their AAVs feels like a long shot.
Teams may still be willing to pony up for a young quarterback with exciting athletic traits and the ability to develop under the right coaching. Willis’ lack of starting experience may work in his favor, too. Justin Fields‘ known limitations capped his market last offseason, but teams have only seen Willis thrive in Green Bay in the last two years.
The Dolphins have emerged as an obvious landing spot for Willis after hiring Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley and vice president of player personnel Jon-Eric Sullivan as their next head coach/general manager duo. However, they have a tight cap situation and will already be paying Tua Tagovailoa $54MM in 2026, per OverTheCap.
“I don’t know that Miami has the money,” Rapoport said. But don’t just take it from him.
In response to a question about Willis at the Combine, Sullivan himself acknowledged that the Dolphins have “a bit of an uphill climb” when it comes to their finances.
“Have we had conversations about Malik? I think anybody that is potentially in the quarterback market would be lying if they said they have not,” Sullivan said (via C. Isaiah Smalls of the Miami Herald). “The reality of the situation is we have 30-plus unrestricted and restricted free agents. And we got eight picks as we sit here today and not a ton of money to do stuff in free agency.”
The Dolphins could certainly find a way to get Willis to Miami, but doing so will take a combination of cuts, restructures, and a creative contract structure. Even then, as Sullivan notes, the team has more areas to address, and concentrating $90MM at quarterback will limit their ability to invest in other positions.
But Hafley and Sullivan should also know how team leadership can be defined by their ability (or inability) to acquire quarterback talent. 26-year-olds with starting potential rarely hit unrestricted free agency, so the Dolphins may be best served by prioritizing Willis now and building the roster around him over the next two offseasons in the hopes of getting back to playoff contention by 2027.
A career of:
105 completions and 6 TDs = $30,000,000 AAV?
I doubt he gets that kind of deal. $15M per??? Maybe something like Fields got last year is closer to reality in my mind.
That contract was also horrible before the ink dried. Kinda makes my point. What’s really the difference between Fields and Willis? A couple of inches?
Too much for a guy that’s played less than Richardson has. No way $30mil aav.
Yeah, those three games were really, really impactful in raising Willis’ profile, but I think people need to slow down and remember that they were just three games.
“Really impactful”?….in 2025 in played against the Jags early before they played well, the Giants in week 11 whose defense sucked up until they fired their DC and then was passable, and the Vikings I believe in week 12 whose whole season pretty much sucked…his only “impactful game was against the Ravens where he did a very good job……do those 3 games add up to a $30-35 million a year average salary?….which team is going to be the sucker who pays that ridiculous money?
Yeah, they were impactful. Look at the demand that Willis is in now versus when he was acquired. I’m not using the word “impactful” in the sense that you are reading it; I am saying that they were impactful in creating demand, which I believe is premature.
A league where Malik Willis is worth 30 mil a year is a league that’s reached insanity. That contract will be bad before the ink dries.
That’s a result of the brainless M.O. that screams “It’s All About The Quarterback”.
And since Rocky muted me, his recap is totally fake. Packers beat Giants in the Meadowlands when Shane Bowen was still defensive coordinator (Bowen sacked the following week). “Impactful” in a shootout loss to Baltimore when Derrick Henry ran the ball at will. Plus Green Bay didn’t play Jax last term.
Again, just to clarify, I’m saying “impactful” just in regards to creating demand. I’m not referring to my evaluation of how much Willis impacted the outcome of each game. That’s a separate discussion.
That makes sense, he had 35 pass attempts last year. Let’s pay him $1m for each one.
Someone is about to get fired in 10-11 months for making that deal.
A team will probably sign him on a one year prove it deal? Could that team be the Cards or Raiders, if they can dump Murray and Smith? Would the Vikings pay that price?
2×24 or 3×20 maybe? Question is, would he forego guaranteed money for a better situation?
That’s fair in my (very unprofessional) eyes; however, it seems like Willis will surpass that. The cap will be rising soon, though, in all likelihood. That might influence what some teams will offer, and maybe mitigate the pain if it doesn’t end up as a good deal later. We’ll see if that happens.
It’s gonna be more than just a one year, prove it deal. There’s gonna be so many teams fighting over him, that’s what’s gonna drive the price up so high. When you’ve got the Dolphins, Jets, Browns, Steelers, Vikings, & Cardinals all fighting over one guy, he might get paid like Baker & Darnold.
Translation: PFT stating something is a league feeling is more like PFT making crap up.
Perfect timing to become a free agent