As the Lions prepare to face a 49ers team flooded with high-end investments on its defensive line, they will do so with a suddenly banged-up offensive front.
Jonah Jackson has undergone surgery for the meniscus tear he sustained in the Lions’ divisional-round win over the Buccaneers, and Frank Ragnow will not head into the San Francisco matchup healthy. The veteran center plans to play, but NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport notes he sustained a sprained knee and a sprained ankle against the Bucs.
Ragnow’s matchups with the likes of Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw will be a key factor as the Lions attempt to keep Jared Goff clean in their first NFC championship game since 1991. Jackson, however, may still have a chance to return this season. If the Lions pull the upset and advance to the first Super Bowl in team history, ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler indicates the team’s left guard could return for that game. Dan Campbell confirmed that possibility for Jackson, who is playing out his rookie contract.
The Lions have dealt with injuries up front this season, but the unit had been healthy for much of this wildly successful stretch run. Four of the Lions’ five original O-line starters this season have missed at least two games this season; Jackson has missed five. Only All-Pro right tackle Penei Sewell has lasted 19 games. Halapoulivaati Vaitai remains on IR, and it does not appear the right guard is coming back this season. Coming back after a three-year Denver stay, Graham Glasgow usurped Vaitai after starting the season as a backup.
Detroit will have four of its front five available against San Francisco, and were the team to come back and allow Jackson to return for a Super Bowl start, it would represent a nice conclusion to a spotty contract year. Jackson, who said last year he is seeking a Lions extension, has been a Lions starting guard since the team drafted him in the 2020 third round. The Bob Quinn regime drafted Jackson, and the Lions have Ragnow and LT Taylor Decker tied to big-ticket deals. Sewell will also be in line for one, joining Amon-Ra St. Brown in that regard.
A 2024 Goff extension is also likely on tap for the Lions, who have let the 2021 trade acquisition play on his Rams contract for three years. These factors will make it difficult for the Lions to retain Jackson, and we have not heard extension rumors since early September.
Javon Hargrave could have a big game.
No point in the Lions even making the flight, just stay home and forfeit now.
Except that the Lions will probably benefit from the bad officiating this time around as the league was embarrassed by what happened in Dallas.
There’s always a first time.
And to think I used to like the 49er’s..yeech
He won’t have to worry about kinlaw, might be built like a mutant, but gets thrown around so easily
I think the Lions can do it. When you never been to the top you play extra hard. It is like the 2020 Bucs, only a handful of players Brady, Gronk, JPP, Barrett, and Suh were in SBs and playoffs in general.
The 2020 Bucs had a much more complete team, especially on defense. The Lions’ one advantage was their elite offensive line. Hargrave is a monster pass rusher inside, and having a hurt center and a backup at your formerly elite guard spot will mean that he either has a big game or extra resources will be needed to contain him, which would help Bosa and Young outside. I think Young actually benefits the most pound for pound, as you’d have to figure that Hargrave and Bosa will be the two top priorities for Detroit to contain. Detroit can’t afford to play from behind, though, because you figure that they can’t contain that line the whole game. Rushers like that feed off each others’ success, anyway.
Goff is a much, much better QB than he gets credit for, but he is especially affected by pressure. The Lions’ secondary is also very bad, and Purdy isn’t averaging about 9 yards an attempt for nothing. I feel that a lot if that is also YAC, which the Lions’ secondary will struggle to contain. They’ll need to score to have a shot. Losing that strong middle of the line will limit their ability to run play action by limiting the run, which coincidentally is also important to San Fran’s offense. Limiting the running backs also limits Detroit’s other X factor in Gibbs. Detroit will probably have to throw to him to get him involved. Warner’s coverage ability will test that strategy on checkdown style plays.
I’m not predicting that this is all for sure the Gospel truth, but on paper, it seems like these two injuries impact Detroit’s capabilities in a big way. Amon-Ra St. Brown is still a great weapon that needs to have a big day if the Lions are to win, but having a decent play-action will really boost his chances. This is mostly from my gut feeling as an outside observer, though, so it’s not empirically derived.
As a Bucs fan the 2020 team was not complete, they somehow clicked on defense in the playoffs.
The regular season they only beat 1 winning team that was GB in week 4. Vikings ended season with winning record but didn’t have one when Bucs played.
The secondary was a huge question mark, Murphy-Bunting caught fire by making ints. He wasn’t very good and they got beat a lot as a unit. Devin White balled but when he needed too.
They lost Cappa on the oline in the 2nd game vs Saints in the playoffs. Stinnie who never played had to step in and played well.
Lions have a lot of offensive weapons and speed. Gibbs, Laporta, Amon-Ra, Williams, Reynolds someone will get open.
Aaron Jones ran well on SF. Gibbs and Montgomery can with the better oline despite injury if everyone knows their assignment blocking is fine like how Stinne stepped in for Tampa.
I don’t want to go off topic, but I don’t see how the 2020 Bucs don’t have a better defense than the 2023 Lions. Those Bucs were ranked 6th overall in total defense, and first in rushing defense. Their 48 sacks ranked fourth in the league, and they had a horde of former All-Pros (not Pro Bowlers, mind you, but All-Pros) at almost every position across the board. Some of these, like Jason Pierre-Paul or Ndamukong Suh, were well past their primes, but still contributors. Others, like Shaq Barrett, were only a year removed from their selections. In any case, those Buccaneers had a stout defense that excelled at attacking the passer and stopping the run. Suh had 6 sacks that year, his most in several seasons. Devin White had 9 as a middle linebacker. I agree that Murphy-Bunting wasn’t great, but he still ended up with interveptions in three straight playoff games. We saw both ends of the defense succeed in the playoffs, and in the regular season, especially when Vita Vea was available.
The Lions, on the other hand, ranked 19th in overall defense this past year. They have actually been worse in the playoffs, as opposed to the 2020 Bucs, who excelled (partially after Vea’s return, and partially because they faced three teams that were all missing their starting tackles) in the playoff bracket. The Lions gave up an average of 336 yards a game in the regular season. That has swollen to 416 a game in the playoffs. I’m not aware of a single former All-Pro on the Lions’ starting defensive roster. Detroit finished second in rushing defense (a spot ahead if San Francisco) with 86 yards given up a game, fueled by Alim McNeill’s stout presence in the middle, and supported by John Cominsky and Akex Anzalone. They finished second worst in passing yards yielded a game, with 256 a game. They finished fifth to last in sacks as well, with 41. This might not seem like a big gap from Tampa’s 2020 number, but we must remember that Tampa also only played 16 games in 2020. Detroit’s 19th ranked defense is driven by its poor pass defense, which in turn is fueled by the Lions’ porous secondary and ineffective pass rush. Hutchinson is the only pass rusher of any high profile, and their defensive backs don’t have an effective history, aside from perhaps Chauncey Gardner-Johnson.
All in all, the Bucs certainly had a much more complete team. Their offense was third best in scoring, and fourth in yards, and their defense featured many proven veterans paired with Pro Bowl level talent at many positions. The Lions’ impressive offense far exceeds its middling overall defense, who has only had consistent success in stopping the run. These Lions cannot sustain losses to their best players (Ragnow may be the best center in the league, and Jonah Jackson is considered by many to be a top five guard) because their defense gives up more yards in the air than any other unit outside of Washington. Remember, Aaron Jones ran on San Francisco with his starting guards in the game. There is no guarantee that Detroit will replicate that success, though it would be the most important factor in winning the game if they could. The 2023 Lions are not as complete a team as the 2020 Bucs, as much I would like to see them overcome their injuries.
I want them to do well. It’s a great story but the CB play is horrible. Vildor (who was dumped by the Bears) gets beaten like a red headed stepchild. Shanahan will exploit that weakness.
I agree.
Is there still time for the Lions to sign Robbie Gould? If he won the game for them with a late FG the irony would be rather significant.
Jared Goff has played in this big game before & has won. Brock Purdy has shown that he can be rattled & throw interceptions. Deebo isn’t healthy so forcing Purdy to throw will be the reasons SF loses to the Lions. Lions 31- San Francisco 30
Detroit will rush for 250 yards. The best rushing attack against the worst run defense means just as much or more as the best passing anttack against the worst pass defense.