From the Giants choosing the 2019 draft to tab Eli Manning's successor -- as opposed to the stronger 2018 or 2020 quarterback classes -- to the Broncos drifting down a bad path with their 2016 Paxton Lynch investment, timing a quarterback bet is rather important. Picking the wrong year to dive in can set a franchise back significantly.
Acquiring a quarterback with a first-round pick requires an organizational commitment that effectively barricades a franchise from reinvesting in the position early in the following draft. Even a second-round investment serves as such a commitment, as there are not many examples of teams making a Round 2 QB choice in one draft and then going back to the table with a first- or second-round move at the position the following year. For the most part, if you pick a year to analyze a QB class and make a selection, you are pot-committed.
This makes advanced scouting vital. However, the reports going into the 2025 draft suggested 2026 would be a much better year for quarterback prospects. While the Raiders are set to benefit, the thin 2026 class shows the risks in anticipating a QB crop a year out.
That brings us to Ty Simpson. The consensus QB2 in this year's draft, as our Ely Allen outlined to launch our 2026 Prospect Profile series, has drawn varying opinions. His mock destinations have ranged from the middle of the first round to following Drew Lock, Malik Willis and Will Levis as a player with recent first-round connections falling to Day 2. Unlike the extreme Shedeur Sanders example, Round 2 appears Simpson's floor. That will bring organizations to a decision. Is he worth sacrificing an early investment in the 2027 QB class?
“Acquiring a quarterback with a first-round pick requires an organizational commitment that effectively barricades a franchise from reinvesting in the position early in the following draft.”
Not true. The Cardinals went Josh Rosen and Kyler Murray in back-to-back years. It’s not a terrible strategy either. A team needs to devote all available resources to finding a franchise quarterback until they actually have one.
There is absolutely no way that I would choose a Quarterback in the First Round.