Latest On Patrick Mahomes’ Record Extension

The Chiefs have their quarterback signed to an unprecedented contract, with the 10-year, $450MM deal — which could be worth up to $503MM — tying him to the team through the 2031 season. Mahomes is the only current NFLer signed beyond 2026. Here is the latest on the deal:

  • Although Patrick Mahomes‘ contract contains just $63MM fully guaranteed — fifth among quarterbacks, and more than $30MM behind Matt Ryan‘s record number — that number will bump up to $106MM by March, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport tweets. By March 2022, that number spikes to $141MM. By March 2023, it rises to $180MM (Twitter links via ex-GM Mike Tannenbaum and veteran NFL reporter Jason Cole).
  • Beginning in 2022, Mahomes has incentives tied to MVPs and AFC titles. Although those are quite difficult to come by, the 24-year-old superstar already has two such accomplishments. Every Mahomes MVP or Super Bowl appearance will trigger a $1.25MM bonus, Adam Schefter of ESPN.com tweets. That totals $25MM and vaults the contract to the $503MM figure.
  • Mahomes’ camp gave in a bit on signing bonus money but secured massive roster bonus payouts, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com tweets. The “guarantee mechanisms” will generate roster bonuses north of $30MM from 2023-28. This structure peaks with a monster $49MM bonus payout in 2027, according to OverTheCap. As for cap hits, Mahomes’ numbers do not become gigantic until 2022. This year, Mahomes will count barely $5MM toward the Chiefs’ cap; in 2021, that number jumps to $24.8MM. After a $31MM hit in 2022, the quarterback will count at least $39MM toward Kansas City’s cap in the deal’s final nine seasons. This peaks with two $50MM-plus cap years in 2030-31, though the sides could naturally be expected to have a new deal in place by then.
  • Citing the shocking number of years Mahomes gave up to get to a $45MM-AAV number, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk writes the quarterback would have done better by waiting and securing a shorter-term deal. “It’s like he had no leverage,” an NFL source indicated to Florio regarding Mahomes’ deal. Mahomes will have security amid an uncertain financial time for the NFL, which could see its projected growth fail to materialize for a while. But if Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson opt for extensions that allow them the chance to re-sign while still in their 20s, both can be expected to surpass Mahomes’ $45MM number midway through the Chief’s deal.
  • Watson and Jackson can be expected to top $40MM per year, Michael Lombardi of The Athletic writes (subscription required), adding that Dak Prescott‘s agent (Todd France) will argue his client should be paid $40MM annually. The Cowboys are not believed to have offered their franchise-tagged quarterback more than $33MM per year. The Texans, however, were linked to a $40MM-plus-AAV Watson deal before Mahomes signed.
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