It does not sound as if the Dolphins and defensive tackle Christian Wilkins have made much progress on an extension. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald says that while both sides remain motivated to get a deal done, an agreement remains elusive.
Notably, Jackson does not suggest that player and team are any closer to an accord now than they were when negotiations commenced several months ago. Jackson has noted previously that guaranteed money could prove to be a sticking point in contract talks, which is often the case when the player in question plays a highly-compensated position.
If the ‘Fins were to allow Wilkins to play out the 2023 season on the fifth-year option of his rookie deal — which will pay him $10.7MM — they could simply hit him with the franchise tag in 2024. Jackson writes that Wilkins, predictably, would be unhappy with that course of action, though the tag for DTs is estimated to be worth $20.8MM. A second tag in 2025 would check in at roughly $25MM, so Wilkins may be targeting guaranteed money at least equal to the sum of those two figures, or $45.8MM (though that is just my speculation).
To date, nine interior defenders are playing on contracts featuring $45MM in guarantees, and six of those players enjoy AAVs over $20MM. Spotrac suggests that Wilkins — whose importance to Miami’s defense was underscored by his career-high 84% snap share and his stellar 82.2 overall grade from Pro Football Focus in 2022 — merits a four-year deal with an annual average just shy of $20MM.
Whether the Dolphins are willing to go to those lengths to retain Wilkins, who does not offer as much in the pass rush department as some of his peers, remains to be seen. Further complicating the matter is the fact that Wilkins’ defensive line bookend, Zach Sieler, is also pushing for a new deal as he enters his platform year.
Sieler’s next contract will not be as valuable as Wilkins’, but he could still be in line for an eight-figure yearly average. GM Chris Grier will therefore need to decide how much he wants to invest in his D-line, which he did not supplement with any free agent signings or draft picks this year. He also has to contend with a less-than-rosy financial outlook, as the Dolphins are projected to be $31.7MM over the 2024 cap as of the time of this writing.
Both Wilkins and Sieler are Drew Rosenhaus clients, and as Jackson points out, the ‘Fins generally take care of talent that the super-agent represents. Rosenhaus recently said that he would not be making any public comments on the contractual situations of either player.