Shad Khan addressed Doug Pederson‘s potential hot-seat status in a hypothetical manner this offseason. After an 0-3 start, the former Super Bowl-winning HC is losing the benefit of the doubt. As the Jaguars head toward their London stretch, Pederson may soon be coaching for his job.
Hired after Khan’s embarrassing Urban Meyer decision, Pederson had restored credibility to a downtrodden franchise by producing an AFC South title in 2022. Last season brought a disappointing finish, but the team doubled down on its core this offseason — while supplementing it via free agency — by authorizing the three most lucrative extensions (for Trevor Lawrence, Josh Hines-Allen and Tyson Campbell) in franchise history. A miserable Monday outing in Buffalo left Pederson’s team searching for answers, and Khan may be growing restless.
Pederson’s status will be one to monitor in the coming weeks, with SI.com’s Albert Breer indicating during a Dan Patrick Show appearance a lot is probably at stake for big names in this organization over the next few weeks. Adding to what may soon become a clear status, ESPN.com’s Dan Graziano labels Pederson a candidate for an in-season firing if the team cannot rebound quickly.
While fourth-year GM Trent Baalke‘s status should be one to monitor here as well, it appears he is safer than Pederson presently. Despite Pederson having coached the Jags to back-to-back winning seasons — the franchise’s first such instance since the 2004-05 seasons — Khan publicly labeled this the most talented roster in Jaguars history. Although that seems a bit extreme considering Jacksonville’s 1999 team went 14-2 and featured seven Pro Bowlers (including Hall of Famer Tony Boselli), Khan’s stance nevertheless turns up the head for his current HC.
After a promising close to the 2022 season and an 8-3 start last year, the Jags are 1-8. The win came in a game Lawrence missed due to injury. Lawrence dealt with several injuries last season, helping explain his tailspin. But the former No. 1 overall pick is healthy now. He has completed just 52.8% of his passes (at 6.3 yards per attempt) while ranking 25th in QBR. Injuries at other spots in Jacksonville’s lineup, particularly on defense, are hurting the team. But Lawrence’s struggles bring bigger-picture questions, considering the team recently matched Joe Burrow‘s then-record-setting AAV ($55MM) to extend him.
Neither Lawrence nor Jordan Love produced enough to earn extensions at that rate, but this is how the QB market functions right now. With the Packers paying for future performance, the Jags are eyeing a leap from the former Clemson prodigy. With guarantees stretching into 2027, the team has seen its centerpiece player submit a concerning start. Pederson and/or OC Press Taylor taking the fall for this should probably be considered in play, with the Jags’ London stretch (Weeks 6 and 7) — or maybe even the two upcoming games — potentially doubling as the do-or-die window.
The England games profile as a big spot for the Khan-led team, since it plays two games overseas — as Khan also owns a Premier League franchise (Fulham FC). The Jags heading to Europe at 0-5 or 1-4 will test the owner’s patience, and he has fired coaches in-season twice in the past decade. In addition’s to Khan canning Meyer during his disastrous season in charge, he axed Gus Bradley during a historically unsuccessful tenure. How Jags ownership went about replacing Bradley suddenly seems relevant.
When the Jags removed Doug Marrone’s interim tag in 2017, Breer notes that decision came largely on the recommendation of Bill Belichick. The legendary coach continues to have a strong relationship with Jags chief football strategy officer Tony Khan (Shad’s son), Breer adds. Dot connecting would point to the Jags considering the six-time Super Bowl-winning HC-turned-omnipresent media figure in 2025, if Pederson cannot turn this operation around.
Belichick’s age will be an issue for teams, as no franchise has hired a head coach older than 66. Belichick would be 73 before Week 1 of the 2025 season, but he obviously brings credentials that will lap everyone else on next year’s HC carousel. That did not matter much this year, as six of the seven non-Patriots HC-seeking teams ignored him, but Jacksonville would be an interesting spot for the coach Pederson beat in Super Bowl LII. Thus far, Belichick had only been closely tied to NFC East destinations. Jacksonville, which did not join Dallas and Philly in considering firing its current HC after last season, may also loom as a legitimate possibility.
As for Pederson, he is 1-for-8 in 10-win seasons; the exception — the Eagles’ dominant 2017 squad — has carried the former Andy Reid staffer. Carson Wentz also rose to an MVP frontrunner before declining over the course of Pederson’s tenure, and Taylor loomed as a factor in the HC’s Eagles ouster. Philadelphia brass was uninspired by Pederson’s aim of promoting Taylor to OC after the 2020 season, and Pederson then brought one of his Philly right-hand men with him as OC in 2022. Taylor received the play-calling reins on a full-time basis in 2023.
The Jags kept their play-calling plans close to the vest this offseason, but Khan seemed to voice a preference for Pederson taking back control. Taylor still plays a key role in play-calling, but at this point, it would be rather odd if Pederson — who called plays throughout his Eagles tenure and served as the Jags’ primary conductor during the 2022 divisional-round season — did not take the lead here.
This regime is running out of time. Even though the Jags have been one of the NFL’s worst franchises under Khan ahead of Pederson at least moving it to a mid-pack operation, it would not be difficult to see another reboot — albeit around some pricey contracts — come to pass if Lawrence and Co. cannot recover soon.
“It beats having Urban Meyer” can only keep you in a job for so long.
Good thing they were financially approved for the stadium renovations before the season! What a miserable franchise.
Trent Baalke should be the one on the hot seat.. how is he still running a team?
I think they should both be on the hot seat, but agree that Baalke’s should be hotter. The second it leaked he was thinking of taking Walker over Hutchinson he should have been on probation.
I completely agree. How Baalke continues to escape responsibility for so many failures is beyond me. He did it in San Francisco, too, until he was finally fired. He somehow managed to attach himself to Caldwell’s regime in time to weasel his way back in to leadership again, just to do his old tricks all over. Caldwell’s regime tanked on purpose for capitol to help the team in the future, possibly at ownership’s behest, and then Baalke exploited their losses when they were fired. I don’t think that Khan is a bad owner, necessarily, but the advice that he follows is highly suspect to me.
Baalke must spend a ton of time in Khan’s ear to give him an impression that he’s actually not to blame for these problems. He’s been on the job longer than Pederson, who has been outcoached for his part, but the lack of talent at many positions is directly and totally Baalke’s fault.
Belichick could actually give them credibility as a franchise.
Make him the defensive coordinator
Help Pederson keep his job
He’s not going to be the DC haha
I’m with you, Belichick is not going to be any ones DC. Unless he can call offensive plays too, and be in charge of personnel and drafting. That ego is so big it may not fit in Jacksonville proper.
Well, he should be lol Sam..!!!!
But why? He has the pedigree, why go be someone’s second in command? It makes no sense.
Forfun
It’s probably more fun being on TV and not having the stress while holding out for a head coaching opportunity with a better team next year.
Still solidarity among coaches would be nice to see
Does he have a personal relationship with Pederson that I’m unaware of?
I have no idea
If Belichick were going to take a DC job, he would have taken one with Shanahan or McVay this offseason. And the Jaguars’ offense has been a bigger problem anyway.
Any NFL club that hires Belichick risks a major fan revolt, no matter what the talking heads say. Such has become the legacy of the Foxboro Cheatriots.
A fan revolt in Jax for hiring Belichick? Lmfao.
Jaguars were on course for Super Bowl 52 until they blew a late lead in the 2017 AFC Championship game — to New England.
The peanut gallery has very short memories.
Soooo…they wouldn’t want to hire that guy?
The common denominator is Taylor. Is Reich employed? Supposedly, and you have to be careful with hearsay, the Super Bowl year was Reich doing the meat and potatoes of the game plan each week, with Pederson then taking it and calling excellent games himself with Reich up in the booth. And apparently that tandem and structure worked, if that is in fact true. Something to think about.
Everything that has happened in the organization since the Meyer fiasco has been green lighted by Shad, so if there are going to be some firings, perhaps he should start by looking in the mirror.
Shad has owned the team for well over a decade. Way before Urban’s time. Either the fastest or 2nd fastest owner to lose 100 games.
I think he relied heavily on advisors during the early stages of ownership but he’s been around long enough now to know what’s what. He has to accept full accountability instead of just throwing others under the bus.
While this is absolutely true, it seems Pederson has been completely outcoached this season. It was very apparent on Monday, that’s for sure.
Game Script has been horrendous.
Play calling laughable
You have a talent like ETN and you intentionally limit his carries (12/game avg) … and that’s just an example off the top of my head
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When teams are an underdog and they win,it builds team spirit and guys feed off of each other. If one guy does something (a sack, a TD) another guy will want to do that and do it better or more often. The press around the Jags is that they expect to win, they’re going to the Super Bowl, blah, blah blah. They aren’t the underdog anymore, there’s an expectation. Guys aren’t having friendly competition anymore, now they’re blaming each other for losing. Some guys think,” we’re going to win, I don’t have to play that hard,” and you can see it happening on the Jaguars. It’s happening on the Bengals also. Guys aren’t finishing plays, not tackling, just going through the motions. It’s sad, but true. If the coach can’t motivate the team anymore then he needs to go. Once it’s out you can’t put the genie back in the bottle.
Yep
Roasting nuts he’s on the HOT seat. Seems like team already peaked under Pederson cpl seasons ago. Sure seems like Lawrence peaked then, not only not taking gm to next level but he’s regressed.
I don’t see Pederson in charge much longer. His OC/DC choices have been weak and Lawrence hasn’t seemed like the savior you need a $50+ million player to be.
You can’t fire the QB you just gave $275 million to – thus Pederson is toast.