MARCH 16: Smith has a $16MM roster bonus that is due today, per The Athletic’s Tashan Reed. The Raiders will pay him that money, but for accounting purposes, it can be incorporated into an extension as a signing bonus. That would also allow the Raiders to reduce his $31MM 2025 cap hit.
MARCH 14: The Raiders do not appear to be planning to hold Geno Smith to his Seahawks-constructed contract going into the season. An extension is considered likely, and it could be coming soon.
Smith is expected to agree to a new deal this week, The Athletic’s Tashan Reed reports. Smith negotiated with the Seahawks this offseason, but the sides were far apart on terms. As Smith’s camp pushed for a deal north of $40MM per year, the Seahawks offered him a similar contract to the one they gave Sam Darnold (three years, $100.5MM). The value gap led Seattle to trade Smith to Las Vegas, which will now be tasked with pinpointing the middling quarterback’s price.
Proving more valuable than his current contract suggests, Smith is coming off a season where he eclipsed his 2022 Comeback Player of the Year campaign in passing yards (4,320) and completion percentage (70.4) while matching his yards-per-attempt number (7.5) from that breakout season. He is tied to a deal in QB no-man’s land (three years, $75MM). No quarterback is within $5MM AAV of Smith either way, with Justin Fields (two years, $40MM) and the Darnold/Baker Mayfield range being the closest to the new Raiders starter.
The Seahawks not moving close to $40MM per year for Smith illustrates their view of the ex-Russell Wilson backup. While Smith has not been connected to approaching the $50MM-per-year club, that ballooning contract tier has raised the market as a whole. Smith exited last season as the NFL’s 18th-highest-paid QB; Darnold’s deal bumped him to 19th.
Smith is going into his age-35 season, which offers another complication. The Raiders, however, are likely to authorize an extension that covers at least three years in length, Reed adds. Smith is joining a Las Vegas team that had slogged through two grim years at quarterback following the team’s December 2022 Derek Carr benching, one that led to a release weeks later. Carr had kept the Raiders’ QB1 reins longer than anyone in team history, and the Josh McDaniels regime did not effectively replace him, as Jimmy Garoppolo did not play well despite being given a three-year deal that nearly matched Smith’s Seattle numbers.
The Raiders aggressively pursued Matthew Stafford, though Smith’s age and familiarity with Pete Carroll probably makes him a better fit. Stafford is heading into an age-37 season. With the Raiders finishing 4-13 after Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell operated as the primary passers and playing in a division that sent three teams to the playoffs and one to Super Bowl LIX, identifying a starter who could be in place for a few seasons probably lined up better than trading for a year-to-year QB who would have still drawn a guarantee in the $100MM range.
Smith secured only $27.3MM at signing from the Seahawks, who had paid him just $3.5MM in 2022 and lower rates before that. Mayfield received $50MM guaranteed in total ($40MM at signing), while Darnold’s locked-in number likely rivals that. If the Raiders give Smith a deal in the $40MM-per-year range, the guarantee will need to come in higher than where Mayfield’s settled last year. Regardless of where that number comes in, the Raiders will soon be back in the franchise-QB contract game.
Smith ok stop – gap. But they really need to draft a good young QB who will play on the cheap so they can build their roster.
I agree. Just hoping Geno coming to the Raiders at age 34 works Out the same way it did when the Raiders brought Rich Gannon in at 34.
When will teams start realizing you need a top 5 QB or the leagues best defense to even have a snowballs chance in hell at a SB? I can typically understand doing this if youre a GM and you need to save your job otherwise we’ll look back on this deal like any other deal for QBs who aren’t elite – what a waste. Why bother paying the Genos, Darnolds’, Daks, Tannehills, Cousins’, Jones’ and on and on and on? I dont get it.
Neither Super Bowl qb was a top 5 qb. Try again.
Please bless us with your top five
Mr Bob – Only QBs that could win in 2026 assuming nothing except they don’t have a world beating D:
Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Hurts and maybe Stroud, Daniels and Stafford as a 2nd tier. The rest aren’t worth a 2nd contract because you’re just paying 20+% of your cap to blow out in the playoffs as a ceiling. Show me the QB who breaks this mold?
Cincinnati has one of your top 5 QBs but can’t even make the playoffs. Eagles have a QB who probably not anyone outside of the Eagles would consider a top 5 QB had a 1st round exit 2 years ago and then turned around and won the SB the following year. Every team wants to win the SB but only 1 team does. Doesnt mean the rest of the NFL should just say screw it and not try. So your logic is if you have a decent but not great QB you are being dumb but paying that QB decent not great money just to make the playoffs and lose in first or second round because if you can’t win it all you shouldn’t pay a QB in order to suck just to suck.
No I don’t think paying a top 5 is the same as paying a lesser talent purely because of results. That’s a false equivalency and so stupid you have to be a moron to even think somebody would believe that.
And youre always better off with an upside QB that keeps your draft capital as high as possible than any of the QBs or their ilk like I said in OP.
Why cant yall name a single example where I’m wrong? Much less in the modern era. Because it doesn’t happen and unless you accept that youre ignorantly hoping against hope. Just like most front offices do.
Still dont know what you’re trying to say. It sounds like you are saying teams should only pay top 5 QBs and if you dont have a top 5 QB you shouldnt pay anything for a QB. The example for what this post is about is Geno Smith who makes the 18th most in NFL for QBs so he’s paid as a bottom half QB in NFL. He’s about to get a raise to be probably more like 15th which seems perfectly fine and will make the Raiders better than they were last year. Or they could decide not go get a QB like Geno and also don’t have the ability to get a top 5 QB since none are available and just continue to suck which get them no where and makes it less of a spot for players wanting to play there.
You’re wrong.
Goff could easily break that mold considering their talent and believable expectations. They were so many people’s pick going into the season/playoffs and choked to a much less talented team. People seemed to think Herbert and LA were a legitimate dark horse going into the playoffs, but he’s also possibly a top 6-7 QB and could win one if he starts showing up in the big games. Nix has a chance given the Denver arrow is pointing up and could break that mold. Love and Green Bay could, too, especially if Kupp signs there.
Stafford was not a top 5 QB when he won and his D was 15th in PF and 17th in yards allowed.
Stafford was the MVP that year. What are you even talking about?
Statistically Mahomes isn’t even close to a top 5 QB
Darn sure not Hurts and Mahomes was rated barely in the top 10 last year.
Pat Mahomes isn’t a top 5 QB? Insane.
Not last year he wasn’t.
only 5 teams have top 5 QBs. You can’t just say we dont have a top 5 QB so lets not even try to compete. Geno is paid as the 18th highest and is better than 18th. Its not like they are overpaying him. With a raise he might move into top 15 territory which seems right.
Sure they’re overpaying him. How much is 5 draft slots worth in the first round? 10? That’s the part GMs and armchair fans can’t seem to account for.
You’re the armchair fan lol
Touche. But my point remains.
What none of yall are understanding is that no matter how you slice it the guy’s I named and the guys youre advocsting for have NEVER won a super bowl. If youre a fan of playing for 2nd round eliminations I’m not sure what to say. That’s lame.
I think what Dijota is trying to say is why pay a QB that will keep you in mid-success limbo aka 8-10 wins per yr that both keep you out of the playoffs and also keep you out of picking in the top 5 picks of the draft. Geno is this type of player. And any Raider fan who looks further back than last season will see this type of QB in Derek Carr. Geno is a good player. Derek is a good player. But both keep their teams in limbo.
Yeah which is ridiculously flawed take. There are only 5 too 5 QB’s you realize right? So with that logic what exactly are you suggesting the other 25+ teams do each season?
dejota • 18 hours ago
When will teams start realizing you need a top 5 QB
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But here’s the thing-you can’t get top-5 QBs. So you get whatever you can get. It’s beyond silly to think that because a top-5 QB is not available, that you can pack up and go home.
Almost there. That’s why in my valuations those draft slots are so important. So you focus on long term flexibility and pounce when you can. Take lottery picks at QB in the interim on day 2 or 3.
Also not one person named a QB who’s done it. Weird.
So are you saying that drafting a QB on day 2/3 is the route to a top-5 QB?
No, top 5 QBs pretty much only get drafted in the first round that’s why if you don’t have one you shouldn’t pay a QB that’s has no historical chance of taking you to the promised land. However there is a history of later round QBs becoming top 5 and drafting and starting those guys over the Geno Smiths of the world is smarter. I dont think this is as hard as yall are making it.
There’s actually plenty of examples of non top 5 QBs winning championships.
I couldn’t disagree more, Dejota. You only need an elite QB to win a championship if you expect him to put the team on his back and do it himself. That shouldn’t be the expectation.
If you scheme to a quality Quarterback’s strengths, surround him with talent at skill positions and on the line, you can win a championship.
You pay those QBs because you have to try to win, otherwise the league wouldn’t be much fun to watch.
When you look at this QB 2025 cash list link to spotrac.com it’s shocking to me that a team wouldn’t burn a 3rd or 4th round pick every single draft in hopes of hitting on a solid QB regardless who their current starter is…hitting on a young Dak, Brady, Russell type in a rookie contract for 4 yrs is so massive to be able to build up the rest of the positions is massive. And if you have a sensitive/paranoid starting QB, it’s easy to play it off as just wanting a good backup for them
…and Tom is endorsing this? I think we have Jordan v2.0.
Tom isn’t the final say. He’s one of many “minority “ owners to go along with MD as the majority owner. I’m sure there was a discussion with all including Pete and the GM Spytek
Let’s see him play and then give him an extension.
Kirk Cousins 2.0?
2yr/$75mm TOPS
I love this for the Raiders
I love this for the Seahawks
I hope the Raiders see what we Seahawk fan saw well except the ones that think he is a great QB.
Guy was horrible under pressure and is an immature joke. Watch the Bills game this last season. Acting like that is no way to act toward your teammates.
They used to say that about Rich Gannon when he came over. Same thing. Not well under pressure. Yells at his teammates etc. “not sure why they sign an aging back up from KC”” etc etc. both came over at 34 to the raiders. Worked out well for Rich. So well intact people forget that part.
Give him the Darnold deal with two years guaranteed. With the mediocre Smith locked up, perhaps we can draft a project. at QB.
Let Smith play out his contract. Add some performance bonuses. Adding a bunch of guaranteed money is not going to make anything better. This year as a contract year and next year as a franchise tag would be better (Smith would be playing for his supper both years).
Maybe Smith bombs this year in Vegas. Then goodbye, no harm done. Big guarantees up front, medium-term harm done. I do not love this signing for the Raiders. Better-than-nothing type signing.
This is Geno Smith we are talking about and I don’t know what you all have been watching but Geno still S-U-C-K-S like when he was with the J-E-T-S
He is was better then when he was with the Jets. It’s become pretty clear no matter who the QB is for the Jets they’re going to suck.