This week’s edition of the PFR mailbag covers questions relating to Tua Tagovailoa‘s future in Miami, the chances of playoff-bound coaches being fired, George Pickens‘ contract outlook and the Browns’ quarterback setup.
Rick asks:
Is this the end of Tua time in Miami? He padded his stats at the end of [Monday] night’s game, but that was bizarre to watch. As Aikman said repeatedly, there was zero urgency even though the team was playing for the postseason. Could something else be going on to lead to such an odd performance on the big stage?
This question came amidst the report Tagovailoa would be benched for Week 16, which has since been confirmed. Head coach Mike McDaniel opened the door to such a move in his postgame remarks.
I wouldn’t have predicted a benching heading into Monday’s game, but based on McDaniel’s comments it didn’t entirely come as a surprise. I don’t think anything specific was a major factor in the way Miami’s offense and Tagovailoa himself played. He is healthy, after all, and it’s well documented how the Dolphins struggle in cold conditions. The Steelers have also not lost at home on Monday night since well before the start of the Mike Tomlin era.
This week's edition of the PFR mailbag covers questions relating to Tua Tagovailoa's future in Miami, the chances of playoff-bound coaches being fired, George Pickens' contract outlook and the Browns' quarterback setup.
Rick asks:
Is this the end of Tua time in Miami? He padded his stats at the end of [Monday] night's game, but that was bizarre to watch. As Aikman said repeatedly, there was zero urgency even though the team was playing for the postseason. Could something else be going on to lead to such an odd performance on the big stage?
This question came amidst the report Tagovailoa would be benched for Week 16, which has since been confirmed. Head coach Mike McDaniel opened the door to such a move in his postgame remarks.
I wouldn’t have predicted a benching heading into Monday’s game, but based on McDaniel’s comments it didn’t entirely come as a surprise. I don’t think anything specific was a major factor in the way Miami’s offense and Tagovailoa himself played. He is healthy, after all, and it’s well documented how the Dolphins struggle in cold conditions. The Steelers have also not lost at home on Monday night since well before the start of the Mike Tomlin era.
Given what we know now, though, it is fair to wonder if the threat of losing the QB1 gig (at least for a brief period) has played a role in Tua’s overall performances in 2025. Miami’s GM firing has been followed by questions about further changes being on tap. That could very well include replacing McDaniel, whose fate is – understandably – thought to be directly tied to the passer he once found success with.
On that note, I think the possibility of Tagovailoa having played his last Dolphins snap has increased substantially over the course of the season. He leads the NFL in interceptions, and even a resurgence in Miami’s rushing attack hasn’t helped the team sustain consistent success in the passing game. Add in a lack of playoff success during the Tagovailoa era (since 2020) – though, Tua is the first QB to guide the Dolphins to two playoff berths since Jay Fiedler (2000-01), even if Tua missed the 2022 wild-card game – and it’s easy to see the appeal of starting over at the position this spring.
Zach Wilson shouldn’t be seen as a franchise passer, and as much as Quinn Ewers slid further than he should have in last year’s draft, it would be unwise to assume he can become one at the NFL level. Trading away Tagovailoa would create the need for a new No. 1 under center, but even when evaluated in a vacuum his play has not been good enough for a strong market to emerge.
Of course, there’s also the financial element to consider in this case. Tua is already owed $54MM guaranteed for next year, a figure no team is going to take on in a trade. Even if the Dolphins retain a large portion of that figure, the market of suitors will no doubt be limited. Teams in need of a new starter (or at least competition) for 2026 but not in line for a top-five draft pick – such as the Steelers and Vikings – may show interest under the right circumstances. Otherwise, I’d agree cutting Tagovailoa will be something to watch for in Miami’s case this spring.
Jason asks:
Of the teams positioned to make the playoffs, do you see a scenario where a coach firing could take place should the team underperform in January?
Let’s start by listing the coaches who should be presumed safe no matter how their teams fare in the postseason. Most from each conference fit the bill, in my mind.
In the NFC, Sean McVay (Rams), Kyle Shanahan (49ers) and Mike Macdonald (Seahawks) have each done well in 2025, to say the least. Shanahan in particular navigating his team’s injuries has been quite impressive. I’d add Ben Johnson and – if applicable – Dave Canales (Panthers) along with Dan Campbell (Lions) to the list of coaches who should not be on the hot seat even in the event of a one-and-done come the playoffs.
In the AFC, Sean Payton (Broncos), Mike Vrabel (Patriots), Jim Harbaugh (Chargers), Liam Coen (Jaguars) and DeMeco Ryans (Texans) have each met or exceeded my expectations for the year. Coen – based on Jacksonville’s previous shortcomings – and Harbaugh – with the Bolts suffering so many key injuries on offense – in particular have boosted their stock. That still leaves several candidates for a firing in my mind, though.
The top of the list may very well be Todd Bowles. The Buccaneers are going to either miss the playoffs (which will leave his seat even hotter) or barely win the NFC South and thus set up a difficult matchup against a favored wild-card team. Going out in short order wouldn’t come as a major surprise at that point, and that will lead to reasonable questions about a change. I’m not sure if Bowles signing an extension this past offseason would be enough to save his job depending on how the next month goes.
The Eagles have been rife with controversy once again in 2025, so that should leave Nick Sirianni on the list of candidates to be replaced. Philadelphia moved on from Doug Pederson three seasons after his Super Bowl title. It would be different to fire Sirianni just one year removed from his own, but his job security was a talking point last year and many of the internal issues which seem to be commonplace on his watch have continued through 2025. As much as it would surprise me to an extent (especially with Micah Parsons done for the year), Matt LaFleur could also potentially be in danger if the Packers bow out early again. 
As for the AFC, Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh find themselves in familiar situations. They have done enough to keep the Steelers and Ravens, respectively, in contention for top spot in the AFC North while also leaving plenty to be desired this season. Tomlin’s contract will become the subject of speculation this offseason, but he and Harbaugh essentially have lifetime agreements from ownership. Stepping aside – rather than being fired – would likely be needed in either case for a change to be made, something which both fanbases would (reasonably, in my view) welcome.
The Bills are still in contention for the division, but I do wonder if another poor defensive outing in the playoffs could leave Sean McDermott an uncertain position. This is Josh Allen’s seventh full season as a starter, and Buffalo has yet to reach a Super Bowl. If that remains the case through this year, it could be fair to wonder if making a change with Allen still in his prime would be worthwhile.
Joseph asks:
What are the George Pickens contract expectations considering his poor recent performances?
The franchise tag has been mentioned several times already as a distinct possibility for Pickens. The Cowboys don’t seem to have an issue with using it in this case, which makes sense on a number of fronts.
Dallas has found success with tagging a number of high-profile players over the years, and it hasn’t stopped long-term deals from being worked out down the road. For Pickens in particular, a dip in production – should it continue over the next three games – would also lend credence to the thought of tagging him and waiting to see how that plays out in 2026 before making a longer commitment. Of course, Pickens wouldn’t be thrilled about a situation like that, but I don’t see a tag-and-trade move being feasible.
Pickens has recorded 37 or fewer receiving yards three times this season: Week 1 and each of the past two games. Considering this is still a career year across the board for him, I feel safe in saying Pickens is capable of remaining a legitimate difference-maker for Dallas for 2026 and beyond. On the other hand, I also feel safe in assuming a franchise tag would lead to a lengthy, potentially contentious series of extension talks (seeing as this is the Cowboys we’re talking about).
The tag is projected to cost around $28MM next season. There are currently 12 receivers attached to an AAV above that figure, although four of them are on their third NFL contract. Pickens’ next deal will be his second, which probably puts his range above Tee Higgins ($28.75MM per year) but below Justin Jefferson ($35MM) or at least Ja’Marr Chase ($40.25MM). CeeDee Lamb is currently No. 3 in the league in terms of receiver compensation ($34MM AAV), but I don’t think Jerry Jones will have much of an issue paying two wideouts near the top of the market.
Pickens will only be 25 by the start of the 2026 season. If the goal is to maximize Dallas’ offensive potential through the remainder of Dak Prescott’s career – which makes sense, especially after trading away Micah Parsons – working out a four-year deal worth something like $30MM annually will probably be necessary. At lot can change over the next few months, but I could definitely see that happening (as much as Dallas will probably push for one year spent on the tag first).
Larry asks:
Does Shedeur Sanders have an actual shot of keeping the Cleveland starting job going into next season, or will the Browns having two first-round picks make this opportunity too appealing for them to risk not adding a first-round talent?
At this point, we’re four games in to Sanders’ run atop the depth chart. He’ll continue in that role for the final three weeks of the season. 
I think that should wind up being a large enough sample size to point the Browns in one direction or another regarding their QB plan. Long before the draft takes place, though, the team will need to decide on its GM-HC setup. Keeping both Kevin Stefanski and Andrew Berry would come as a surprise, in my mind, based on how the past two years have gone. Obviously, it’s too early to guess what kind of difference a regime change would make with respect to the plan under center.
Even so, any new coach and/or GM would be different from the one which drafted Sanders (putting aside whatever influence one believes owner Jimmy Haslam had on that selection to begin with). There are tons of examples around the NFL of that fact alone leading to sweeping changes in the lineup, so it can’t be ruled out in Cleveland’s case if that becomes applicable. Before seeing what happens, however, I’ll say Sanders does indeed have a chance at spending 2026 as Cleveland’s starter.
Of course, the draft could present an opportunity too good to pass up. The Browns will probably wind up with one pick in the top five or six, and Jacksonville’s selection will give them the capital needed to move up the order. If the team feels Fernando Mendoza or (if he declares) Dante Moore can be a franchise passer, it will be a misstep to pass and look elsewhere. Adding a quarterback capable of being a starter over the long term is always the path worth going down in a situation like the one Cleveland is in.
At a minimum, Sanders will probably wind up doing enough to start the 2026 season ahead of Dillon Gabriel on the depth chart (regardless of Stefanski retention). I could see that translating to a full season as QB1, but depending on how things shake out over the final three weeks of the season Cleveland’s draft situation could set up a first-round replacement selection. That would obviously change the equation.