Patrick Mahomes is rehabbing ACL and LCL tears, but Week 1 remains the superstar quarterback’s goal. The NFL schedule — which features Chiefs primetime games in Weeks 1, 2 and 6 — certainly points to an expectation Kansas City will have its top player available to open the season. For the long term, the Chiefs are expressing tremendous confidence in Mahomes as well.
Already having the all-time great signed through 2031 — via the 10-year extension reached in 2020 — the Chiefs added two seasons to the deal and signed off on a record AAV. Mahomes agreed to an eight-year, $504.75MM extension Wednesday, tying him to the Chiefs through 2033. This is the NFL’s first $500MM player contract, and this one looks better for the quarterback than his $450MM pact from 2020 did.
With Mahomes’ previous deal expiring after the 2031 season, it may not be a coincidence the Chiefs tacked on the additional two years months after agreeing to move across the Kansas state line beginning in 2031. But the key points of this agreement will come in the 2020s, even if the team now has a selling point to prospective season-ticket holders well into the 2030s now.
Although initial reports indicated the deal included four fully guaranteed years, a deeper look into the contract reveals that to be a slight exaggeration. The deal does include two fully guaranteed years and a sizable chunk of Year 3 guaranteed at signing, according to Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer, who adds the $63.1MM-AAV contract will bring a record $237.25MM over four years (Dak Prescott‘s $175.56MM three-year cash total bests Mahomes’ updated number — $174.75MM — according to Spotrac).
That entire four-year sum is guaranteed for injury. The $237.25MM brings an NFL record in total guarantees, surpassing Prescott’s $231MM number from 2024. Mahomes agreeing to add years to his historically long Chiefs deal will also help the AFC West franchise, which restructured his previous contract to create cap space on five occasions. It would not surprise to see that trend continue on the new through-2033 accord.
Restructures are almost certainly set to occur beginning next year. Mahomes is now tied to a $34.65MM cap number in 2026, according to OverTheCap, but will see his 2027 figure check in at $90.35MM. That number will be adjusted via a restructure, as it is an untenable cap hit at this point in time.
Mahomes’ 2028 and ’29 cap figures are beyond $82MM, and his 2030 number checks in above $74MM. While more manageable — especially as the cap will keep rising — cap hits are in place from 2031-33 ($65.8MM, $68MM, $70MM), Mahomes returning to his previous form will likely lead to another revised agreement by that point.
Mahomes will see $35.5MM of his 2028 compensation lock in next week, per Breer, who adds the remaining $24.75MM will vest in 2028. March 2028 also brings a key date, as Mahomes will see his 2029 roster bonus ($30MM) vest a year early. The Chiefs used a rolling guarantee structure in lieu of a monster at-signing guarantee in 2020, and they triggered a new batch of guarantees in September 2023 — after a host of less accomplished QBs passed the two-time MVP on the market.
The remainder of the three-time Super Bowl MVP’s 2029 compensation ($32.5MM) will shift from an injury guarantee to a full guarantee in March of that year, Breer notes. Mahomes will see a $30MM 2030 roster bonus vest in March 2029 as well, with the remaining $33.75MM of his Year 5 compensation vesting in March 2030. The same rolling bonus structure is in place for 2031 and 2032, per Breer, with $30MM bonuses for those years respectively due in March 2030 and March 2031.
No year-out guarantee exists for the final year of the contract, which carries $70MM in cash — the most of any year in this accord — though all $70MM does become guaranteed in March 2033. Mahomes will be 37 then, and it would be presumptuous to assume he will still be attached to this contract by then. Things certainly change in the NFL, and with the Chiefs redoing the QB’s 10-year extension twice by 2026, it would stand to reason they will be prepared to make more adjustments to it as other passers — on much shorter contracts — bring market updates.
Although the term length favors the Chiefs, this contract is much more player-friendly than Mahomes’ July 2020 extension. Mahomes was riding more momentum when he inked that deal, as the Chiefs had won Super Bowl LIV in comeback fashion and were powered by an explosive offense. The team’s firepower has waned over the past three seasons, with Travis Kelce‘s decline and failures in the run game and at wide receiver limiting Mahomes, who has not closely approached the heights he reached over his first five seasons as a starter.
The Chiefs have ranked 15th, 15th and 21st in scoring offense over the past three seasons. They were 6-8 in games Mahomes started last year, seeing the close-game mojo that powered them over the previous three seasons fade. That adds intrigue to this Chiefs commitment, as the franchise is understandably placing full faith in the 30-year-old passer recovering from his knee setback and returning to top form.
It will be interesting to see when or if Mahomes regains his elusiveness, as his historic improvisational skills depend on that component of his game. Superior pocket passers exist in the NFL, and the Chiefs have not done well — especially with Rashee Rice proving unreliable — in equipping Mahomes with consistent skill-position talent. Kansas City’s left tackle position has also been in flux since Orlando Brown Jr.‘s 2023 departure. Josh Simmons is in place to potentially fix that, and the Chiefs have two interior O-linemen — Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith — signed long term as well.
The Chiefs did not have to adjust Mahomes’ deal now, making it rather interesting — especially as the quarterback ceiling had not moved since Prescott’s September 2024 extension. No one else had topped $60MM per year between that Cowboys megadeal and Mahomes’ new Chiefs pact.
Kansas City, which built a dynasty after trading up for Mahomes in 2017, will bet on its mobile passer aging well. And, as the market has spiked in the 2020s, it took a more player-friendly guarantee structure to complete the latest agreement.