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2016 Cap Outlook: Buffalo Bills

October 8th, 2015 at 10:25am CST by Luke Adams

Through the 2015 NFL season, Pro Football Rumors will be looking ahead to the 2016 offseason, gauging the salary cap situation for each of the league’s 32 teams. The cap for 2016 hasn’t been set yet, but we can still assess the salary commitments made by a club and determine whether or not that club will be in good financial shape going forward.

In addition to evaluating each team’s overall cap situation, we’ll focus in on a few key players who may be candidates to be extended, restructured, or released by their current teams. These lists aren’t comprehensive, and depending on a player’s 2015 performance and health, he could drop off one of these lists – or be added to one – as the season goes on. For now though, these are some players to watch.

Using data from Over The Cap, we’re making our way through the 32 NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. Today’s team is the Bills, who currently have the second-most money on their ’16 cap.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Mario Williams, DE: $19,900,000
  2. Marcell Dareus, DT: $14,550,000
  3. Charles Clay, TE: $13,500,000
  4. Stephon Gilmore, CB: $11,082,000
  5. Kyle Williams, DT: $8,000,000
  6. LeSean McCoy, RB: $7,675,000
  7. Jerry Hughes, DE: $7,575,000
  8. Aaron Williams, S: $6,100,000
  9. Eric Wood, C: $6,075,000
  10. Sammy Watkins, WR: $5,436,983
    Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $149,880,615

The Bills’ cap commitments are incredibly defense-heavy going forward, with all four of their defensive linemen ranking among their top seven cap hits for 2016. In addition to those four players, two defensive backs – Gilmore and Aaron Williams – are in the top eight.

Without a franchise quarterback to take up a huge chunk of cap space, the Bills can afford to invest significant money on the defensive side of the ball, as well as devoting cap room to traditionally less expensive offensive positions like tight end, running back, and center. But even without a pricey quarterback, Buffalo finds itself with nearly $150MM cap commitments for next season, meaning moves will need to be made for the team to function in free agency and in the draft.

Candidates for extension:

While left tackle Cordy Glenn is perhaps the most noteworthy extension candidate on the Bills’ roster, signing him to a new contract wouldn’t help the team’s cap situation, since he’s not currently under contract at all for 2016 — a new deal for Glenn would only add to the club’s cap commitments for next year, rather than reducing them.

That’s not the case for Gilmore, who is currently on the books next year for a fifth-year option that exceeds $11MM. Gilmore has been a solid player for the Bills, but it seems highly unlikely that the club will want to carry him at that price. The most logical solution would be a multiyear contract that gives the 25-year-old cornerback a little more long-term security while perhaps slicing his 2016 cap number in half.

As for McKelvin, his future in Buffalo relies on how he comes back from an ankle injury. McKelvin, who remains on the non-football injury list for now, is entering his early-30s, and his contract expires after the 2016 season. His $4.9MM cap charge for next year isn’t unwieldy, but if the Bills determine he won’t be the same player he was before the injury, he’s a candidate to be released — if he comes back strong, the Bills could reduce his ’16 cap number by adding a couple years to his contract.

Candidates for restructure:

  • Charles Clay, TE
  • LeSean McCoy, RB
  • Mario Williams, DE

A pair of these players just signed new contracts with the Bills this offseason, and Clay’s looks like it was practically designed to be restructured — his cap hit spikes to $13.5MM next season, but doesn’t exceed $6.5MM in any of the subsequent three years.. Of course, the sizable second-year cap charge was initially designed to prevent Miami from matching Buffalo’s offer sheet, but reducing that figure and smoothing out Clay’s cap hits a little should help out the Bills in 2016.

McCoy’s new extension doesn’t include a similar year-two spike, and at $7.675MM, his 2016 cap number is manageable. But he got off to a slow start in Buffalo, and is now sidelined with a hamstring injury. At age 27, McCoy should still have plenty of gas in the tank, but it’ll be interesting to see how the Bills move forward at the running back position if Karlos Williams continues to impress. Through four weeks, the rookie has averaged 5.4 yards per carry, compared to 3.4 for McCoy.

Elsewhere, Mario Williams remains a key contributor to the team’s pass rush and shouldn’t be in danger of losing his roster spot, despite the rising cost of the defensive line. But at $19.9MM, his cap number is one of the largest in the NFL, so the Bills may try to find a way to cut it down a little.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Manuel has already lost his starting job in Buffalo, and Carpenter could lose his soon. If Billy Cundiff assumes the team’s kicking duties within the next few weeks, Carpenter is unlikely to remain on the roster into the offseason, and even if he holds onto his job, the Bills could explore a cheaper alternative in 2016. Manuel, on the other hand, should still be with the team at season’s end, as he nears the final year of his rookie contract.

At this point, it’s a virtual certainty that the Bills won’t exercise their 2017 fifth-year option on Manuel, but would they keep him for 2016? At about $2.827MM, Manuel doesn’t cost a ton for a backup. Still, it’s not clear if Rex Ryan and the team’s new coaching staff has much confidence in the former first-rounder, even as the club’s No. 2 option, so he’s no lock to make the 2016 roster.

As for Williams and Wood, both players have been productive veterans over the years in Buffalo — particularly Williams, who has been a Pro Bowler in each of the last three seasons. It’s possible that the team will simply keep both players on its roster without adjusting their contracts, but at $8MM and $6MM respectively, neither player will be cheap. If they struggle at all down the stretch and the Bills have the opportunity to bring in inexpensive young talent at their positions next year, the veterans may be asked to rework their deals in order to stick around.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

PFR Originals: 9/27/15 – 10/4/15

October 4th, 2015 at 3:44pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past seven days:

  • Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
  • In our Community Tailgate series, we post topics for discussion and encourage readers to voice their thoughts in the comments section. This issues discussed by Luke Adams last week:
    • Which winless team will turn things around? (link)
    • Will the Bears keep trading away players? (link)

PFR Originals: 9/20/15 – 9/27/15

September 27th, 2015 at 2:37pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past seven days:

  • Luke Adams kicked off our 2016 Cap Outlook series by taking a look at the Saints, examining candidates for extensions, restructures, and release.
  • Slightly less than half the league has used its injured reserve/designated to return slot, and Luke went over which clubs have utilized the designation.
  • Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
  • In our Community Tailgate series, we post topics for discussion and encourage readers to relay their thoughts in the comments section. The issues covered by Luke last week:
    • How will the NFC East play out? (link)
    • How will the AFC South play out? (link)
    • Which underdogs will win in Week 3? (link)

2016 Cap Outlook: New Orleans Saints

September 25th, 2015 at 1:41pm CST by Luke Adams

Through the 2015 NFL season, Pro Football Rumors will be looking ahead to the 2016 offseason, gauging the salary cap situation for each of the league’s 32 teams. The cap for 2016 hasn’t been set yet, but we can still assess the salary commitments made by a club and determine whether or not that club will be in good financial shape going forward.

In addition to evaluating each team’s overall cap situation, we’ll focus in on a few key players who may be candidates to be extended, restructured, or released by their current teams. These lists aren’t comprehensive, and depending on a player’s 2015 performance and health, he could drop off one of these lists – or be added to one – as the season goes on. For now though, these are some players to watch.

Using data from Over The Cap, we’ll make our way through the 32 NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. As such, we’ll get underway today by examining the Saints, who have the most salary committed to ’16 for now.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Drew Brees, QB: $27,400,000
  2. Cameron Jordan, DE: $12,800,000
  3. Junior Galette, OLB: $12,100,000 (dead money)
  4. Jairus Byrd, S: $10,900,000
  5. Jahri Evans, G: $8,200,000
  6. Keenan Lewis, CB: $6,350,000
  7. Brandon Browner, CB: $6,300,000
  8. Max Unger, C: $6,000,000
  9. Marques Colston, WR: $5,900,000
  10. Dannell Ellerbe, LB: $5,900,000
    Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $151,532,625

Over the Cap’s data assumes that 2016’s cap will sit at exactly $150MM, which is a reasonable estimate for now, though I’d expect the actual number to be even higher. Using that figure, the Saints are the only team already projected to be over the cap, with an excess of about $1.532MM for just 41 players.

Part of the problem for the Saints is the amount of dead money on the 2016 cap — even before making next year’s cuts, the club is already carrying nearly $15MM in dead money, with the majority of that coming from Galette’s contract. New Orleans parted ways Galette so soon after he signed a new extension that he counts for $5.45MM in dead money against the team’s 2015 cap, plus another $12.1MM against the 2016 cap. That’s not good.

Candidates for extension:

While the Saints would probably love to lock up Armstead, a 2013 draft pick that has worked out splendidly for the team so far, doing so in 2016 as he enters the final year of his rookie contract could be tricky. Extensions can often reduce a player’s current-year cap number, pushing the larger cap hits to later years of the new contract, but Armstead’s 2016 cap hit will be just $859K. If he gets extended and gets any sort of signing bonus, his ’16 cap number will increase, not decrease.

That’s what makes it so important that the Saints figure something out for Brees. The veteran quarterback is already battling a shoulder injury this season and will turn 37 in January, but he has still led the league in passing yards in three of the last four seasons, and has earned seven consecutive Pro Bowl nods. Does the club intend to keep him as its starting quarterback beyond 2016? If so, he needs to be extended in order to reduce his massive cap hit.

Currently, Brees is set to earn a $19.75MM base salary in ’16, with a cap hit of $27.4MM. With, say, a two-year extension, those figures could be massively reduced, with Brees getting a decent chunk of guaranteed money and some longer-term security, giving him a chance to finish his career with the Saints.

Depending on how the 2015 season plays out, we might be talking about Brees as a release candidate rather than an extension candidate, or New Orleans simply may simply let his contract expire and move onto a younger, cheaper signal-caller for 2017. Whatever the team chooses, Brees represents a key figure in making sure the cap situation doesn’t get any messier moving forward.

Candidates for restructure:

Byrd and Evans had their contracts reworked this past offseason, and if the team intends to keep them beyond 2016, those deals may have to be tweaked again. Byrd’s cap hit jumps up to $10.9MM next year, and there’s still so much bonus money on it that it doesn’t really make sense for New Orleans to release him unless he’s designated as a post-June 1 cut.

As for Evans, he’s in a similar boat — the Saints are extremely unlikely to keep him at his current $8.2MM cap number for 2016, but dropping him would result in $7.1MM in dead money, so a restructure or a pay cut seems more likely at the moment.

Jordan’s contracts looked like a candidate to be restructured in 2016 from the moment it was signed, since he has a $6MM roster bonus due next year. It would be shocking if that isn’t turned into a signing bonus, prorating it over five years and creating $4.8MM in cap space for ’16.

Meanwhile, as effective as Morstead has been in New Orleans, no cap-strapped team should be carrying a punter with a cap charge of $4.45MM, so that will certainly be reduced in some way.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Colston and Hawthrone were viewed as release candidates for the Saints this past offseason before they agreed to take pay cuts. The same could be said for Ellerbe and Unger before they were traded by the Dolphins and Seahawks, respectively. All four players earned another year on their current contracts by taking a pay cut or getting traded, but the reprieve could be brief.

All four players are slated to count against the cap for at least $4.5MM next season, with Unger at $6MM, and Colston and Ellerbe not far behind. Once again, their 2015 performances will play a significant role in what the Saints decide to do with them in the offseason, but it’s unlikely that any of these veterans still has his best days ahead of him.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

17 NFL Teams Still Have IR-DTR Slot Available

September 24th, 2015 at 11:37am CST by Luke Adams

We’re about two and a half weeks into the NFL season, and 15 players have landed on the injured reserve list with the designation to return, including Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo and Jaguars receiver and return man Rashad Greene this week. Unlike the usual IR list, which keeps a player inactive all season or until he reaches an injury settlement with his team, this IR-DTR slot allows a player to begin practicing after six weeks and to begin playing in games after eight weeks.

Of course, whereas the standard injured reserve list can accommodate several players at once, NFL teams can only use the designation to return on one player, so teams must be cautious about how to fire that single bullet. Given the eight-week timetable for the IR-DTR slot, most clubs will use it during the season’s first few weeks if they need to use it at all.

Prior to the Week 3 games in 2014, 17 teams had used their IR-DTR designation, so the fact that 15 clubs have used it so far in 2015 sounds about right. By the end of the 2014 season, all but five NFL teams had used their short-term IR slot, meaning we should expect to continue seeing clubs make use of it in the next few weeks.

Here’s a breakdown of how teams have used the IR-DTR spot so far, and which teams still have it available:

Eligible to return after Week 8:

  1. Baltimore Ravens: DE Brent Urban
  2. Cleveland Browns: CB Charles Gaines
  3. Detroit Lions: CB Alex Carter
  4. Miami Dolphins: RB Jay Ajayi
  5. Minnesota Vikings: C John Sullivan
  6. New England Patriots: C Bryan Stork
  7. New York Jets: CB Dee Milliner
  8. Pittsburgh Steelers: C Maurkice Pouncey
  9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: T Demar Dotson
  10. Tennessee Titans: RB David Cobb

Eligible to return after Week 9:

  1. Houston Texans: TE Ryan Griffin
  2. Indianapolis Colts: CB D’Joun Smith
  3. Oakland Raiders: S Nate Allen

Eligible to return after Week 10:

  1. Dallas Cowboys: QB Tony Romo
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars: WR/KR Rashad Greene

Teams with unused IR-DTR slots:

  1. Arizona Cardinals
  2. Atlanta Falcons
  3. Buffalo Bills
  4. Carolina Panthers
  5. Chicago Bears
  6. Cincinnati Bengals
  7. Denver Broncos
  8. Green Bay Packers
  9. Kansas City Chiefs
  10. New Orleans Saints
  11. New York Giants
  12. Philadelphia Eagles
  13. San Diego Chargers
  14. San Francisco 49ers
  15. Seattle Seahawks
  16. St. Louis Rams
  17. Washington

2015 NFL Practice Squads

September 18th, 2015 at 1:16pm CST by Luke Adams

In addition to the 46 players active for regular season games and the seven additional roster players made inactive on game days, NFL teams are permitted to construct 10-man practice squads. The players on the squad work out and practice with the players on the active roster, but aren’t eligible to participate in games.

For the 2014 and 2015 seasons, changes were made to practice squad rules that allow teams to carry 10 players instead of eight, and the eligibility requirements for those extra two spots were also loosened. You can check out our glossary entry on practice squads to brush up on those changes, as well as all the other guidelines that govern the 10-man units.

Listed below are the current practice squad rosters for each NFL team. We’ll keep this list up to date throughout the year as players are shuttled on and off of these squads, so be sure to use the link in the sidebar on the right, under “PFR Features,” to keep tabs on the latest.

If you have any corrections, please contact us. Here are 2015′s NFL practice squads:

Read more

PFR Originals: 9/6/15 – 9/13/15

September 13th, 2015 at 2:38pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past seven days:

  • The PFR staff weighed in with our predictions for the 2015 NFL season, and we asked you to do the same.
  • Now that Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor‘s holdout has officially begun, how do you see the situation playing out? Post your thoughts here.
  • Luke Adams recapped all the players who have been placed on the injured reserve/designated to return list.

Pro Football Rumors’ 2015 NFL Predictions

September 10th, 2015 at 12:59pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2015 NFL season gets underway tonight, and the writers at Pro Football Rumors have weighed in with projections for the upcoming year. We’ve predicted which teams will earn playoff berths, which clubs will win their respective conferences, the Super Bowl champion, and the winners of the league’s major awards.

Despite Jordy Nelson‘s season-ending injury, the Packers are a popular choice among our writers, as three of us are forecasting a Super Bowl win for Green Bay. However, Andrew Luck received more votes for the regular season MVP than Aaron Rodgers did, with five of us predicting the Colts QB will earn the hardware. Elsewhere, many of us are bullish on J.J. Watt to win Defensive Player of the Year and Chip Kelly to win Coach of the Year.

Click on the link below to see forecasts from Luke Adams, Connor Byrne, Rob DiRe, Ben Levine, Zach Links, Rory Parks, Dallas Robinson, and Sam Robinson. And please head to the comments section to chime in with your own prognostications for the 2015 NFL season!

Pro Football Rumors’ 2015 Writer Predictions

Players On IR With Designation To Return

September 8th, 2015 at 8:15am CST by Luke Adams

As of 3:00pm central time this past Sunday, NFL teams could begin adding players to injured reserve lists with the designation to return. Unlike the usual IR list, which keeps a player inactive all season or until he reaches an injury settlement with his team, this shorter-term IR list allows a player to begin practicing after six weeks and to begin playing in games after eight weeks.

Of course, whereas the standard injured reserve list can accommodate several players at once, NFL teams can only use the designation to return on one player, so teams must be cautious about how to fire that single bullet. Given the eight-week time frame for the IR-DTR slot, most clubs will use it during the season’s first few weeks if they need to use it at all.

So far, a handful of clubs have taken advantage of the opportunity to use the IR-DTR spot — we’ll list all those players right here. If other clubs decide to use their openings at any point, we’ll note that below as well. This post can be found anytime on our right-hand sidebar under the PFR Features menu.

Here’s the full list so far:

AFC East:

AFC North:

AFC South:

  • Houston Texans: Used on TE Ryan Griffin (MCL) after Week 1
  • Indianapolis Colts: Used on CB D’Joun Smith (knee) after Week 1
  • Jacksonville Jaguars: Used on WR/KR Rashad Greene (thumb) after Week 2
  • Tennessee Titans: Used on RB David Cobb (calf)

AFC West:

  • Denver Broncos: Unused
  • Kansas City Chiefs: Unused
  • Oakland Raiders: Used on S Nate Allen (MCL) after Week 1
  • San Diego Chargers: Used on DT Darius Philon (hip/thigh) after Week 5

NFC East:

NFC North:

NFC South:

NFC West:

2015 NFL Offseason In Review Series

August 31st, 2015 at 12:56pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the last couple months, with the 2015 regular season fast approaching, Pro Football Rumors has been taking a look back at the offseason. Our writers have tackled all 32 NFL teams, examining free agent signings, trades, draft picks, and all the other moves made by clubs in 2015, breaking down what sort of impact those decisions will have going forward. If you missed any of our Offseason in Review posts, be sure to check them out below, where we’ve rounded them all up in one place:

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

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