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The Panthers’ Week 15 win over the Falcons brought the Patriots and Cardinals, who each lost, one game closer to the No. 1 overall pick. New England’s weaker strength of schedule provides keeps Arizona in the No. 3 spot, while Washington — weeks away from a likely full-scale reboot — has lost five straight to move into position for its first top-five pick since 2020.

Early reports have the Bears more likely to draft Justin Fields‘ replacement than trading a top pick once again, but the Patriots and Cardinals are still in the running for what could well be the Caleb Williams draft slot. Much less drama would emerge if New England claimed the top pick, as the Patriots would be expected to draft the top QB prize. Arizona landing atop the draft for the second time in six years could produce a derby, with Kyler Murray‘s contract difficult (but not impossible) to move for new GM Monti Ossenfort. QB-needy teams may well be hoping the Cardinals land one of the top two spots, however, providing a potential gateway to a trade-up for Williams or Drake Maye.

The Raiders’ 63-21 demolition of the Chargers slid them down six spots compared to their position last week. The Packers also climbed eight spots from their slot going into Week 15. Green Bay has not held a top-11 draft choice since it drafted B.J. Raji in the 2009 first round; that came on the heels of Aaron Rodgers‘ first season at the helm. Jordan Love‘s QB1 debut season could still produce a playoff berth, however, and the rest of the NFC and AFC wild-card races remain tightly bunched.

Here is how the 2024 draft order looks with three regular-season games to play:

1. Chicago Bears (via Panthers)
2. New England Patriots: 3-11
3. Arizona Cardinals: 3-11
4. Washington Commanders: 4-10
5. Chicago Bears: 5-9
6. New York Giants: 5-9
7. New York Jets: 5-9
8. Los Angeles Chargers: 5-9
9. Tennessee Titans: 5-9
10. Atlanta Falcons: 6-8
11. Green Bay Packers: 6-8
12. Las Vegas Raiders: 6-8
13. New Orleans Saints: 7-7
14. Denver Broncos: 7-7
15. Seattle Seahawks: 7-7
16. Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-7
17. Arizona Cardinals (via Texans)
18. Buffalo Bills: 8-6
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-7
20. Minnesota Vikings: 7-7
21. Los Angeles Rams: 7-7
22. Indianapolis Colts: 8-6
23. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-6
24. Cincinnati Bengals: 8-6
25. Kansas City Chiefs: 9-5
26. Houston Texans (via Browns)
27. Detroit Lions: 10-4
28. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-4
29. Miami Dolphins: 10-4
30. Dallas Cowboys: 10-4
31. Baltimore Ravens: 11-3
32. San Francisco 49ers: 11-3