2015 Franchise Tag Candidates

2015 Franchise Tag Candidates: AFC South

January 29th, 2015 at 2:34pm CST by Luke Adams

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is less than five weeks away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. On Tuesday, we examined the AFC East, and yesterday, we turned our attention to the AFC North, where the Ravens and the Steelers look like the teams most likely to make use of a tag. Today, we’ll shift our focus south, breaking down the franchise and transition tag candidates for the Texans, Colts, Jaguars, and Titans….

Houston Texans:

Candidates: Kareem Jackson
Odds of being used: Unlikely
Jackson, who has been a starter at cornerback in Houston since being selected in the first round of the 2010 draft, is an underrated asset for the team. Still, a year ago, corners like Vontae Davis, Sam Shields, and Aqib Talib went untagged, so it’s hard to imagine the Texans franchising Jackson. Linebacker Brooks Reed and right tackle Derek Newton are among the other solid contributors Houston should look into re-signing, but like Jackson, neither player is worth an eight-digit salary for 2015.

Indianapolis Colts:

Candidates: None
Odds of being used: Zero
The Colts, like the Texans, have useful players eligible for unrestricted free agency — safety Mike Adams, defensive lineman Cory Redding, and longtime Indianapolis wideout Reggie Wayne will need to sign new contracts if they intend to continue their careers. But none of the team’s top impact players are free-agents-to-be, which is great news for a club with $30MM+ in projected cap room.

Jacksonville Jaguars:

Candidates: None
Odds of being used: Very unlikely
No team projects to have more cap space this offseason than the Jaguars, who could have upwards of $63MM in spending room. That’s one reason we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of a franchise tag — the team could easily afford it. However, for the tag to make sense, there needs to be a viable candidate, and it’s hard to find one on Jacksonville’s list of pending free agents. Linebacker Geno Hayes and defensive back Alan Ball are probably the Jags’ best UFA-eligible performers, but both players only appeared in about half the club’s defensive snaps, so it’s hard to make a case for them as franchise tag candidates. And it’s even harder to make a case for players like wideout Cecil Shorts and defensive end Tyson Alualu.

Tennessee Titans:

Candidates: Derrick Morgan, Brett Kern
Odds of being used: Possible, but unlikely
The Titans have a number of starters eligible for free agency, including Morgan, Kern, Michael Roos, and Ryan Succop. And like the Jaguars, they project to be among the top five teams this offseason in terms of cap space, giving them the flexibility to use the franchise tag if needed. Roos may be headed for retirement, and tagging either of the two special-teamers – punter Kern and kicker Succop – would likely be a last resort. That’s especially true of Succop, who had a down year in 2014. Morgan is the club’s strongest candidate. He has thrived in recent years as an edge rusher in 3-4 and 4-3 schemes, and despite modest sack totals, he recorded 49 total quarterback pressures last year and ranked among the league’s top 10 3-4 outside linebackers, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Those perennially average sack numbers, along with a perception that he hasn’t lived up to his first-round billing, should keep Morgan’s price down enough that the Titans won’t have to tag him, but he and Kern (a top-10 punter, per PFF) are the most viable options in Tennessee.

2015 Franchise Tag Candidates: AFC North

January 28th, 2015 at 8:57am CST by Luke Adams

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is less than five weeks away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. On Tuesday, we examined the AFC East, identifying the Patriots, with safety Devin McCourty and kicker Stephen Gostkowski eligible for free agency, as the most likely team to make use a tag. Today, we’ll shift our focus north, breaking down the franchise and transition tag candidates for the Ravens, Bengals, Browns, and Steelers….

Baltimore Ravens:

Candidates: Pernell McPhee, Torrey Smith
Odds of being used: Possible
McPhee and Smith are both solid contributors, with McPhee in particular providing plenty of value to the Ravens in 2014 — Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded him as the league’s second-best 3-4 outside linebacker, behind sack leader Justin Houston. Still, McPhee was only a part-time player, appearing in just 540 defensive snaps, barely over half of what Houston played. For that reason, he may not be the most viable candidate for a tag, but he shouldn’t be ruled out. Smith, on the other hand, can probably be dismissed as an option — his production took a step backward in 2014 after the arrival of Steve Smith, and his 49 receptions and 767 yards were career lows. Kicker Justin Tucker would be a strong candidate if he were eligible for unrestricted free agency rather than restricted.

Cincinnati Bengals:

Candidates: None
Odds of being used: Zero
A few recognizable names, such as Jermaine Gresham and Mike Nugent, are scheduled to hit the open market for the Bengals, but none of the club’s prospective free agents are core players that absolutely must be retained.

Cleveland Browns:

Candidates: Brian Hoyer, Jordan Cameron
Odds of being used: Unlikely
At different points in 2014, the idea of using a tag on Hoyer or Cameron looked entirely reasonable, but both players’ stocks dropped toward the end of the season. If Hoyer is brought back, it would likely be to compete for a starting job, which isn’t worth a franchise salary that could exceed $18MM. The tight end tag will be worth less than half that, but after an injury-plagued and ineffective 2014 campaign, Cameron will almost certainly have to settle for a more modest deal.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

Candidates: Jason Worilds
Odds of being used: Possible
The Steelers used the transition tag on Worilds a year ago, and in his first season as a full-time starter in 2014, he was arguably just as good or better, so it’s absolutely within the realm of reason that the team would do it again. Still, tagging a player for a second time means that his salary will increase by at least 20% (in Worilds’ case, that means a raise to at least $11.705MM), and the Steelers have a handful of other contracts to address this offseason, including a potential extension for Ben Roethlisberger. I do expect Pittsburgh to make every effort to retain Worilds, but the club may push a little harder for a long-term deal this time around, which would increase cap flexibility and the ability to spend elsewhere this winter.

2015 Franchise Tag Candidates: AFC East

January 27th, 2015 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

One game remains on the NFL’s calendar for the 2014/15 season, but for teams besides the Seahawks and Patriots, the offseason has already begun. And one of the first tasks on most clubs’ offseason to-do list involve the franchise and transition tags. As our list of important offseason dates shows, teams can assign their franchise or transition tag to a player beginning on February 16, and will have until March 2 to make use of one of those tags.

Franchise and transition tags are tools that allow teams to keep free-agents-to-be off the open market. Our glossary entry on the subject goes into greater detail, but essentially, a player receiving either tag can’t sign freely with a rival suitor — the exclusive franchise tag prohibits the player from even negotiating with another team, while the non-exclusive franchise and transition tags ensure that the player must sign an offer sheet, which his previous club would have the opportunity to match.

Franchising a player means tendering him a one-year contract offer — he can accept and sign that offer, or attempt to work out a longer-term arrangement with his club. The salary for the one-year offer is determined using a formula that looks at the highest-paid players at each position, and is often exorbitant. Because it can be tricky to accommodate a franchise or transition salary within the cap restraints, not all teams will make use of the tags this offseason. Last year, for instance, only six clubs took advantage of the opportunity, with four teams using the franchise tag while two others used the transition tag.

Still, most teams around the NFL have one or two players that warrant at least passing consideration for one of the tags. Over the next couple weeks, we’ll take a look around the league, division by division, identifying which players on each of the NFL’s 32 teams might be candidates for the franchise tag in 2015. We’ll start today with the AFC East — let’s dive in….

Buffalo Bills:

Candidates: Jerry Hughes
Odds of being used: Unlikely
Running back C.J. Spiller and safety Da’Norris Searcy are among the free-agents-to-be that the Bills might look to re-sign this winter, but only Hughes is truly a viable candidate for the tag. The pass-rushing specialist has been excellent for Buffalo, recording consecutive seasons of double-digit sacks, but the price for his tag may be simply too high — even if he were considered an outside linebacker rather than a defensive end, Hughes would still likely cost at least $12MM for 2015. That may not be doable for the Bills, considering how much money the team has already invested into its other standout defensive linemen.

Miami Dolphins:

Candidates: Charles Clay, Jared Odrick
Odds of being used: Unlikely
Clay and Odrick are solid players, and the franchise prices for tight ends and defensive tackles aren’t bad relative to many other positions. Still, the Dolphins don’t have a ton of cap space to work with, and committing big money to either Clay or Odrick on a one-year deal isn’t a prudent use of that space. If Miami wants to retain them, both players can probably be locked up for lower per-year salaries.

New England Patriots:

Candidates: Devin McCourty, Stephen Gostkowski
Odds of being used: Possible
The price for a franchised safety is less than $10MM, which certainly isn’t outrageous for McCourty, who has developed into one of the more consistently productive players at his position. Gostkowski, meanwhile, has been one of the league’s most reliable kickers for the last several years, and would cost about $4MM to franchise. Bill Belichick and the Pats are notoriously willing to let players go when their cost outweighs their benefit, but McCourty and Gostkowski are still effective enough that the team will likely at least consider tagging one or the other.

New York Jets:

Candidates: David Harris
Odds of being used: Unlikely
The Jets will certainly have plenty of cap room to work with this offseason, but without an ideal franchise candidate, the team will likely choose to pass on the tag. An inside linebacker, Harris is coming off a deal that paid him $9MM annually, but he just turned 31 and the ILB position has seen its value decrease a little in recent years. Dawan Landry, a top-10 safety in 2014, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), makes for an intriguing under-the-radar candidate, but not a very realistic one.