With nearly a third of the 2018 regular season in the books, it’s fair to start looking ahead to the 2019 draft, especially if you’re a fan of a team that’s not looking like a playoff team this year. Using Football Outsiders’ DVOA On the Clock report, let’s take a look at a few teams who could secure the No. 1 overall selection in 2019:
Arizona Cardinals (19.6% chance of No. 1 pick, 61.5% chance of top-five pick)
The Cardinals allowed the Sam Bradford experiment to last for the better part of three games before turning things over to rookie quarterback Josh Rosen, who has appeared competent thus far. David Johnson is an All-Pro talent at running back, but Arizona hasn’t been very creative in its use of him, and he’s faced eight or more defenders in the box on 33.78% of his attempts, 10th-most in the league. The Cardinals are still as a top-10 defense in terms of DVOA (meaning they’re efficient) despite ranking as a bottom-10 unit in both yards allowed and scoring, so continued success on that side of the ball could move Arizona away from the top overall pick.
San Francisco 49ers (18.6%, 59.8%)
The 49ers’ top quarterback (Jimmy Garoppolo), running back (Jerick McKinnon) and wide receiver (Marquise Goodwin) have all been injured this year, and each health issue helped push the 49ers’ chances of earning the No. 1 pick upward. With C.J. Beathard now leading San Francisco’s offense, and Alfred Morris taking over in the backfield for the time being while Matt Breida deals with an ankle injury, it’s unclear how many points the 49ers will be able to muster the rest of the way. Pair those offensive problems with a defense that ranks just 26th in adjusted sack rate, and San Francisco could be in the market for a top-five selection in 2019.
Buffalo Bills (13.2%, 56%)
While rookie signal-caller Josh Allen perhaps hasn’t looked as poor as many believed he would, he still ranks second-to-last among quarterbacks in adjusted net yards per attempt. His performance, as well as that of Buffalo’s porous offensive line, has contributed to the Bills ranking dead last in both yards per drive and points per drive. A surprisingly strong defense (and a full-effort approach that speaks well of head coach Sean McDermott) could help push the Bills towards the end of the top-10 picks, but their offense is going to hold them back.
Oakland Raiders (9.3%, 41.7%)
It’s a good thing Jon Gruden landed a 10-year contract because his first season with the Raiders isn’t going as planned. Oakland’s defense is the slowest in the NFL (which perhaps isn’t a surprise given that the Raiders are fielding the league’s oldest roster), and the club’s offense has been hit-or-miss. After trading superstar Khalil Mack, Oakland ranks dead last in sacks and second-to-last in adjusted sack rate. And, as a bonus, the Raiders get to face Patrick Mahomes twice a year for the next decade.
New York Giants (8.1%, 37.1%)
The Giants are the only team in the NFL that has at least a 5% chance of securing the No. 1 overall pick and at least a 10% chance of making the postseason, per Football Outsiders. That’s largely due to the lackluster quality of the NFC East, where no team is over the .500 mark, and New York’s remaining schedule, which ranks as the easiest in the league. On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight currently projects the Giants to finish with the NFL’s worst record, so until the NFC East clarifies itself, New York’s outlook is ¯_(ツ)_/¯.
Atlanta Falcons (8%, 35.3%)
The one team on this list that would have been a complete surprise coming into 2018, the Falcons have been decimated on the defensive side of the ball. Starting safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen, plus linebacker Deion Jones, are all out for the season after suffering injuries, and Atlanta’s defense has responded in kind, giving up the second-most points in the league on a per-game basis. Matt Ryan and the rest of the Falcons’ offense can still win shootouts, but Atlanta could be in line to pick within the top-five for the first time since 2008.
So, what do you think? Will one of these teams land the No. 1 overall pick in 2019? Vote below!
Can you please add the link for app users?
49ers but only because the Cardinals will beat them twice. Both awful teams
Last season the Niners closed out the season with 5 meaningless wins to cost themselves higher ranking on the draft board. Is there any evidence the front office has gotten smarter since then?
100% Tampa Buccaneers. They won’t win another game this season.
Couldn’t vote… too early
Bills
Patriots.
For once it won’t be my Browns.
Lets hope so Hue Jackson still has a good amount of OT to make bad descions
For the first time in 3 years the Brown fans are removing the paper bags from their heads and trying to recognize old faces.
I agree but I still don’t want to guarantee it until it actually happens lol
eli should restructure his contract to veteran min
Colts
With all the coaches available you have to wonder why anyone would choose Frank Reich.
What’s worse for Gruden is he thought the pick from Bears would be top 5. He turned down better deals thinking picks would be lower. He also F up throwing in a 2nd rounder. That Bears pick might be from 24-32.
What better deals did the Raiders turn down?
As much I like to lol at Gruden, the only other offer we know of for sure that he turned down was from the Rams
Dolphins are top 5
The team with the worst record won’t necessarily be picking first. The Steeler’s with Bell as a bargaining chip definitely have to be given some consideration.
Steelers can’t trade Bell until he signs his franchise tender. the acquiring team wouldn’t be able to negotiate a contract with him until the end of the season. For a team picking that high to trade the pick, the Steelers would most likely have to offer a franchise crippling amount of players and picks. TL:DR, no
History has taught us that anything can happen in the business of sports. I don’t expect Bell will ever take another snap for the Steelers but I could be wrong.