As a back-to-back AFC South champion, Houston entered the 2025 season as the odds-on favorite to rule the division again. While few expected either the Jaguars or Colts to seriously contend, they’re ahead of the Texans entering Week 14. With the exception of the 1-11 Titans, who may be on their way to a second straight No. 1 overall pick, the AFC South is anyone’s to win with five games remaining.
Jacksonville and Indianapolis, both 8-4, will meet on Sunday with first place on the line. They’ll also square off in Week 17. The Texans (7-5) will go on the road to face the Chiefs (6-6) in something resembling a do-or-die game for the reigning conference champions. Having already beaten the Colts in Indianapolis last Sunday, the Texans will host them in a game that could decide the division or a playoff berth in Week 18. The Texans and Jaguars split their season series. They won’t see each other again unless they match up in the postseason.
The Colts have been atop the division for most of 2025, but they dropped to second place in Week 13. Thanks in part to an unexpected resurgence from quarterback Daniel Jones, a free agent addition who previously flamed out with the Giants, the Colts stormed to a 7-1 start. They held the No. 1 seed in the AFC at that point.
Acquiring star cornerback Sauce Gardner from the Jets before the Nov. 4 deadline was supposed to bolster the Colts’ chances of at least winning the division. They’ve now lost three of four, though, and Gardner could miss multiple weeks with a calf strain. Jones is playing through a fibula injury, meanwhile, and league-leading rusher Jonathan Tayloris coming off back-to-back mediocre showings.
While the shine has come off the Colts in recent weeks, the Jaguars and Texans have surged. Despite losing prized first-round rookie wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter to a season-ending knee injury in early November, the Jaguars have won three in a row. They’ve succeeded despite underwhelming numbers from quarterback Trevor Lawrence and a major downturn in production from second-year receiver Brian Thomas.
The Texans have survived despite a significant injury to C.J. Stroud, who returned last week. The third-year signal-caller missed three full games with a concussion. The Texans went undefeated in that span under backup Davis Mills, who led a dramatic fourth-quarter comeback over the Jags in Week 10.
Mills’ heroics proved crucial against Jacksonville, but the Texans’ top-ranked defense is the main reason they’re still in the race. Winners of seven of nine and four straight, the Texans have a legitimate chance to become the latest team to rally for a playoff berth after starting 0-3. Only six, including the 2018 Texans, have done so since 1979.
Although Indianapolis is reeling while Jacksonville and Houston are trending up, the Colts are still slight favorites to conquer the South, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. At 41%, they’re narrowly edging out the Jaguars (40%) ahead of Sunday’s showdown. The Texans (19%) are a distant third.
How do you expect this three-team battle to play out over the final month of the season? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
It would have been hard to fathom entering the 2025 campaign, but the Chiefs are on the outside of the AFC playoff bracket heading into Week 14. Owners of a mediocre 6-6 record, the perennial Super Bowl contenders are in 10th place in the conference with five games left in the regular season.
The Chiefs are in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014, the second year of head coach Andy Reid‘s brilliant run with the franchise. Patrick Mahomes, now one of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the sport, was a freshman at Texas Tech then.
The Chiefs haven’t won fewer than 11 games in a season since Mahomes took the reins in 2018. One more loss would be a career-worst total for Mahomes, and it could be a near-knockout punch for the Chiefs.
Kansas City will enter this Sunday’s game against Houston (7-5, eighth in the AFC) with a 35% chance to rally for a postseason berth, per Next Gen Stats (via Ali Bhanpuri of NFL.com). A win would increase the odds to 49%, while that figure would plummet to 11% with a loss.
The good news for the Chiefs is that they’ll play at home, where they’ve gone a dominant 63-14 in the Mahomes era. On the negative side, they’ll battle the league’s No. 1 defense with what could be a patchwork offensive line. Left tackle Josh Simmons will miss the game with a wrist injury. Meanwhile, right tackle Jawaan Taylor (triceps/knee) and right guard Trey Smith (ankle) haven’t practiced this week. Going without as many as three starting linemen may prove too much to overcome against a pair of superb pass rushers in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
Looking beyond their showdown with the Texans, the Chiefs’ remaining schedule includes games against the bottom-feeding Titans (Week 16) and Raiders (Week 18). However, they’ll also face formidable opponents in the Chargers (Week 15) and Broncos (Week 17), both division rivals.
The Chiefs already lost to the Chargers (8-4) in Week 1 and the Broncos (10-2) in Week 11. It’s hard to imagine Kansas City making up enough ground on Denver to rally for its 10th division title in a row. A wild-card spot, something the Chiefs have never settled for with Mahomes at the helm, presents the more realistic path to a playoff berth.
While the Chiefs rank near the top of the league in offense (fifth), point differential (seventh), and defense (10th), coming out on the wrong end of one-score games has left them in an unenviable position. After finishing a stunning 11-0 in one-score affairs last year, regression in that department has haunted the Chiefs this season. Kansas City is 1-6 in one-score games, which isn’t lost on future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce.
“I’m sure everyone is sick of us saying it, but we’re a few plays away from being a one seed in my mind,” Kelce said this week on his “New Heights” podcast with brother Jason Kelce (via Jaclyn Hendricks of the New York Post). He added that “all of the losses are within one score, and there’s a handful of plays within those games that are determining the outcome.”
The 36-year-old Kelce has been one of the faces of the Chiefs’ dynasty, joining Reid and Mahomes to win three Super Bowls and five AFC titles. Kelce, who could retire after 2025, will decide his future in the offseason. In the meantime, he and the Chiefs have little margin for error as they seek their 11th straight playoff berth.
Do you expect the Chiefs to reach the postseason? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
The Patriots’ win Monday night gave the AFC two two-loss teams (and zero three-loss squads) exiting Week 13, forming a mid-2010s-like duel for the No. 1 seed with the Broncos. In the NFC’s race for the bye slot, the picture is much cloudier.
As it stands, the NFC has a host of teams in contention for that No. 1 spot. The Bears currently hold it, but a fierce challenge appears ahead for Ben Johnson‘s resurgent team. Chicago sits at 9-3, but so do the Rams and Seahawks. Because of their tie in Dallas, the Packers are 8-3-1. The Eagles’ Week 13 loss to the Bears hurts their cause, but the defending Super Bowl champions are 8-4. The 49ers are 9-4, creating an interesting race with five weeks left.
The Bears have not earned a top seed since 2006, though their second-seeded squad advanced to the 2010 NFC title game. The Bears have not managed a playoff win since. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the current NFC leader a 12% chance of holding the top spot. That figure sits fifth in the conference.
Chicago, however, closes with four games against over-.500 teams; the Bears draw the Packers twice and have games against the 49ers and Lions. In addition to the two Bears tilts, the Packers have a Denver trip to make along with a Week 17 Ravens matchup. ESPN’s FPI gives Green Bay a 17% chance to hold the No. 1 seed. The Packers earned back-to-back No. 1 seeds — in 2020 and ’21 — but have not come especially close to such real estate during Jordan Love‘s starter run.
Love has shown more growth in 2025, ranking third in QBR despite the team battling major issues in its pass-catching corps. Tucker Kraft is out for the season, and the team has not had Jayden Reed — its leading receiver in 2023 and ’24 — available since Week 2. Reed is in the IR-return window, and the Packers have seen Christian Watson — who returned midseason from an ACL tear — step forward along with Romeo Doubs. The Pack have not seen too much from first-round pick Matthew Golden, however, and the Kraft-to-Luke Musgrave gap appears wide despite the latter being drafted earlier in 2023.
The Packers did not exactly ride defense to those bye slots earlier this decade, with that unit being unreliable for most of Aaron Rodgers‘ stay. But Jeff Hafley‘s unit ranks sixth in scoring and fourth in yardage. EPA is a bit more skeptical, slotting the Pack 14th defensively. The team’s Micah Parsonsblockbuster trade/extension sequence has made an impact. Parsons’ 36 pressures trail only Myles Garrett (39) this season; the ex-Cowboy dynamo has 12.5 sacks — already just 1.5 shy of a career high.
Concerns about Matthew Stafford‘s summer back injury were overblown, and the 17th-year quarterback is pushing for an MVP — an accomplishment that would strengthen a Hall of Fame case light on accolades. The one-time original-ballot Pro Bowler’s 32:4 TD-INT ratio has powered the Rams, who have benefited from their Cooper Kupp-to-Davante Adams upgrade. The NFL’s active touchdown reception leader (117) has a league-high 14 this season.
L.A. has also benefited from good injury fortune this season. Until Rob Havenstein‘s setback, the Rams’ O-line has rebounded from injury-plagued campaigns, with Puka Nacua also avoiding IR. Chris Shula‘s defense ranks second in points, putting him on the radar to become the third Shula appointed an NFL HC. FPI gives the Rams, who have not held the No. 1 seed since 2001, a 30% chance to do so — tops in the conference. The Rams have three games against sub-.500 teams, though they do face the Lions and Seahawks as well.
Seattle limited Stafford in a Week 11 loss, but Sam Darnold‘s four-INT day impeded a road win. The Seahawks have otherwise seen Darnold reward them for another offseason QB gamble, as they gave the nomadic QB a three-year, $100.5MM deal days after trading Geno Smith. Darnold is all but certain to collect the additional $17.5MM due in February. While Kupp has stayed healthy, he only has 438 receiving yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has rendered that a minor concern, as his NFL-most 1,336 have him gunning for Calvin Johnson‘s single-season record (1,964), setting up the 2023 first-rounder for a monster extension; he is eligible for a new deal in January.
Mike Macdonald‘s defense has surpassed expectations, ranking third in points allowed and EPA per play. Byron Murphy has taken a major step forward, going from a half-sack as a rookie to seven this season, while the DeMarcus Lawrence and Ernest Jones signings have paid off as well. The Hawks will need to upend the Rams to have a realistic shot at the 1 seed, and they also have games against the 49ers, Colts and Panthers. FPI gives Seattle a 16% chance at what would be its first 1 seed since 2014.
San Francisco is somehow 8-4 despite losing Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Mykel Williams for the season — along with Brock Purdy for much of it. The recently extended starter has not played especially well, but he is not expected to be 100% after a turf toe injury until the offseason. Mac Jones‘ two-year, $7MM contract has proven to be a bargain, as the once-maligned QB has gone 5-3 as a starter this season. Jones ranks 10th in QBR. Robert Saleh‘s return has also aided the 49ers, who rank eighth defensively (though, EPA is far more skeptical, slotting Saleh’s crew 24th).
Given a 15% chance at claiming what would be their third No. 1 seed of the Kyle Shanahan era, the 49ers follow their Titans matchup with games against the Colts, Bears and Seahawks. Only one road game (Indianapolis) remains on San Francisco’s docket.
FPI gives the Eagles only an 8% chance at the top seed, despite the team’s head-to-head Rams tiebreaker. Philly’s latest OC change, installing longtime Nick Sirianni coworker Kevin Patullo in the play-calling role, has keyed an uneven Super Bowl title defense. Saquon Barkley has not come close to matching his stratospheric 2024 form, and QBR ranks Jalen Hurts 19th. Top O-lineman Lane Johnson has a Lisfranc injury, though he is not on IR, while more A.J. Brown drama has unfolded ahead of likely 2026 trade rumors.
While Vic Fangio‘s defense looked better following some deadline trades (most notably the Jaelan Phillips move), it surrendered 281 rushing yards to the Bears after a collapse in Dallas. The Eagles’ schedule does cooperate for a potential third No. 1 seed since 2017. After a game against a potentially Justin Herbert-less Chargers team, two Commanders tilts await. Philly does have a Buffalo trip in Week 17, however.
Who will end up claiming the NFC’s top seed? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
The NFL’s latest trade deadline featured eight Tuesday trades, but a total of 22 in-season swaps occurred this year. Some teams made multiple trades; several others stood pat. Two of the biggest trades in deadline history went down this week.
As we detailed Wednesday in the latest Trade Rumors Front Office post, the Jets’ perspective brought strong value for young players toiling on a downtrodden team. The three first-rounders plus the 2026 second will give New York’s new decision-makers a chance to retool while having assets to either find a quarterback in the draft or trade for a veteran. While it will be difficult to replace Gardner and Williams, the Jets’ Darren Mougey-Aaron Glenn regime made the decision to cash in their top assets to launch a true rebuild — one that suddenly features plenty of QB ammo.
From the Colts’ perspective, Gardner brings an accomplished starter at a young age. Indianapolis received a player signed through 2030, though New York’s contract structure on the July extension limited the Gardner dead money to $19.75MM — far less than the Dolphins just took on for Ramsey or what the Saints absorbed upon trading Marshon Lattimore last year.
The Colts, after building from within for years, now have three high-cost DB contracts added this year in the Gardner accord and those given to Charvarius Ward and Camryn Bynum. Tied for the best record in the AFC (at 7-2), the Colts made a move and watched the Patriots, Broncos, Bills and Chiefs hold off on buyer’s trades.
Dallas’ stance is a bit more complicated. The Cowboys went from trading Micah Parsons for two first-rounders ahead of his age-26 season to acquiring Williams, who will turn 28 in December. The team still has three first-round picks between 2026 and ’27, but sending the higher-value ’27 first to the Jets strips away a prime asset for a player not on Parsons’ level.
Jerry Jones harped on the team’s run defense upon acquiring Kenny Clark in the Parsons trade, but that unit has faceplanted this season. Williams joins Clark and Osa Odighizuwa in a suddenly pricey Dallas D-tackle corps, and the longtime Jet had angled for a contract rework — something the Cowboys may now have to navigate.
The Cowboys also addedLogan Wilson, after trying to grabQuincy Williams from the Jets in a two-brother trade, but the younger Williams brother represents the obvious talking point here. Dallas’ interior D-line is well stocked. Will Quinnen Williams help transform a sub-.500 Cowboys team in the way Amari Cooper did after the team surrendered a first at the 2018 deadline?
Meyers will help the Jags replace Travis Hunter and provide some stability in a receiving corps also dealing with a Brian Thomas Jr. injury. Shaheed joins a surging Seattle squad, reuniting with 2024 New Orleans OC Klint Kubiak, and will be an interesting complementary piece for All-Pro candidate Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With Smith-Njigba, Shaheed, Cooper Kupp and rookie Tory Horton, the Seahawks look to have one of the NFL’s best receiving cadres.
Jacksonville also engaged in a cornerback swap, prying contract-year cover man Greg Newsomefrom the Browns in October. Newsome has started two games with the Jags and has incentive to perform well this season, as he is uncontracted for 2026. Tyson Campbell is signed through 2028, giving the Browns some cost certainty — albeit now carrying two upper-crust CB contracts, along with Denzel Ward‘s — at a premium position.
Cleveland did not aggressively sell, keeping its guards, David Njoku and other rumored trade assets, though they did do Joe Flacco a solid — to Mike Tomlin‘s chagrin — by trading the demoted QB within the division. Flacco immediately became the Bengals’ starter and has rejuvenated Cincy’s offense.
The Rams quietly bolstered their CB contingent by obtaining Titans contract-year slot playerRoger McCreary, while Tennessee also sent Dre’Mont Jones to Baltimore. The Ravens added Jones and Alohi Gilman, the latter becoming an immediate starter and helping maximize All-Pro Kyle Hamilton. Jones, who has 4.5 sacks this season, replaces Odafe Oweh — traded to the Chargers in the Gilman swap — in Baltimore’s OLB rotation. A former 3-4 defensive end, Jones gives Baltimore some pass rush options after Gilman supplied them with a deep safety. Gilman is also in a contract year.
While the Dolphins did not dive into full sales mode, retaining Jaylen Waddle and Bradley Chubb, after parting with longtime GM Chris Grier, they did obtain a third-round pick for Phillips — who is in his fifth-year option season. The Chargers also added two more trades before the 3pm buzzer Tuesday, most notably addingTrevor Penning — a three-position starter for the Saints — for a late 2027 draft choice. A contract-year blocker, Penning will be an option for a battered Bolts’ tackle corps.
The Steelers’ long-rumored wide receiver quest did not lead to a deal, but the team did add veteran safetyKyle Dugger, who had fallen out of favor with the Patriots despite signing an eight-figure-per-year extension as a transition-tagged player in 2024.
Who do you think did the best job at this year’s deadline? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
September 25th, 2025 at 10:49pm CST by Adam La Rose
Six teams currently find themselves at 0-3 to begin the year. Managing to rebound from that mark and reach the playoffs has proven to be an extremely difficult task over the years.
Only four times has a team reached the postseason after starting 0-3 since 1990. Crucially, none have achieved the feat since the playoffs were expanded from six to seven teams in each conference in 2021. Whether or not that continues this season will be interesting to see.
Chances are slim for any of the league’s winless teams to rally into the postseason, but there is of course variance with respect to their prospects of doing so. There is an argument to be made the Texans represent the likeliest candidate to pull off such a comeback, based largely on their defensive success to date. Houston ranks fifth in the NFL in points allowed (17 per game on average) and the team’s losses have come by a combined margin of 13 points.
Improvement on offense could thus help turn things around in short order, but the Texans’ offseason renovations up front have not gone as planned so far. Third-year quarterback C.J. Stroudhas not been able to return to the form shown during his stellar rookie campaign, and a number of new pass-catchers are in the process of acclimating to an offense lacking a strong ground game. Catching the undefeated Colts for top spot in the AFC South would be a surprise at this point, but a wild-card berth could very much still be within reach if Nick Caley‘s unit can turn things around.
Houston will take on the Titans in Week 4 in a clash of teams seeking their first win. Tennessee entered the year with far lower expectations, but the team’s performance to date has still left plenty to be desired. The Titans lead the league in penalties (31) and rookie quarterback Cam Wardhas been sacked an NFL-high 15 times. Second-year head coach Brian Callahan sports a record of 3-17 at this point, and it remains to be seen if he will be entrusted with overseeing Ward’s development over the long term.
Callahan relinquished offensive play-calling duties this week, and he will now look to increase his involvement in other aspects of the team. Finding success in that regard would no doubt help his job security. It would also, presumably, allow for Tennessee to improve on last season’s 3-14 showing and offer signs of progress from Ward and a supporting cast in need of improvements moving forward.
Another intra-divisional Week 4 game will see the Dolphins take on the Jets. The first half of the upcoming Monday Night Football doubleheader will be key in determining both teams’ immediate futures. Miami was seen as a disappointment given how the 2024 campaign played out. Head coach Mike McDaniel has certainly not helped his standing in the organization so far this season, although a concerted effort to improve the Dolphins’ culture could help stave off a firing for he and general manager Chris Grier.
Finding a rhythm on offense has proven to be highly challenging in 2025, even with quarterback Tua Tagovailoamanaging to avoid any injuries to date. Stronger play on both sides of the ball will be needed if Miami is to reach the playoffs for the third time in McDaniel’s fourth season at the helm. Winning a postseason contest will become a major objective in that event, but for now quieting the rumors about major organizational changes will be the goal.
By contrast, 2025 marks another new beginning for the Jets. Rookie head coach Aaron Glennand first-year general manager Darren Mougey are seeking to provide the team with long-term stability in addition to ending a playoff drought which dates back to 2010. That effort has not gone according to plan so far, but a key element will be the evaluation of new quarterback Justin Fields. The former first-rounder is back at practice, and he will return to starting duties upon being cleared from concussion protocol.
Fields is under contract through 2026, but helping lead the Jets to the playoffs would greatly increase his chances of landing a long-term accord. It would also help Glenn and Mougey’s standing, although at this point their job securities are of course not in question. Still, a strong first campaign in New York (something which could be attained without a postseason berth, at least in theory) would be welcomed by the duo; a quick rebound from the way things have started would suffice, and it would be less surprising than one from some of the league’s other winless outfits.
New York’s NFC squad is in a state of flux in no small part due to another unwanted beginning to a campaign. Giants head coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen managed to remain in place this offseason, but aside from a high-scoring output against the Cowboys things have not gone according to plan. The decision has been made to replace quarterback Russell Wilsonwith first-round rookieJaxson Dart, and the outcome of that move (beginning with a debut against the 3-0 Chargers) will be critical on a number of fronts.
Daboll and Schoen are known to be on the hot seat, and showing potential for a turnaround with Dart in place would go a long way in helping ensure they remain in place. Owner John Mara made clear his mandate for a step forward compared to 2024 (3-14), and plenty of work remains given how things have gone early in the current campaign. If the Giants are to at least contend for a wild-card spot this season, Dart will no doubt be a key figure in the process.
Joining the Jets as a team led by a rookie head coach encountering early struggles are the Saints. New Orleans underwent a number of offseason changes, with Kellen Moore‘s hire being the most noteworthy. The longtime NFL OC was a central figure in the decision to draft Tyler Shough, but instead of the second-rounder handling starting duties it has been Spencer Rattlerat the helm so far.
The Saints’ QB setup raised eyebrows amongst some of their players, but Rattler has improved upon his output from last season’s late spell in the starter’s role. Two of New Orleans’ losses, meanwhile, came about in one-score games. A postseason berth was not expected from the team, with many pointing to the 2026 draft as the point where a new franchise quarterback would arrive. Rattler (or potentially Shough, depending on how things play out) could earn an extended look in the QB1 role, however. A quick recovery toward postseason contention would come as a surprise, but at a minimum a bounce-back from last week’s lopsided loss in Seattle will be sought out. Doing so against the undefeated Bills will of course be a tall task.
Only once since 1990 has a team started 0-4 but managed to reach the playoffs. By contrast, moving to 1-3 has been more beneficial (with 35 teams doing so in that same span). The success of this year’s group in recording a first win this weekend and generating momentum beyond that point will make for an interesting storyline.
Out of this group of winless teams, which do you feel will have the best chance of rebounding and qualifying for the postseason in 2025? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and have your say in the comments section below.
Speculation about Derek Carr’s Saints future came to an end when he elected to retire in lieu of undergoing shoulder surgery. The procedure would have kept him from playing in New Orleans (or elsewhere) in 2025, so the four-time Pro Bowler brought his career to an end and began the team’s next era under center.
Carr handled starting duties for a pair of campaigns with the Saints after his Raiders tenure came to a close. The arrival of new head coach Kellen Moore brought about questions regarding a departure, but that is of course a moot point now. This year’s training camp will see Moore and his staff evaluate New Orleans’ four remaining signal-callers to determine the pecking order.
That quartet includes undrafted free agent Hunter Dekkers. Like in essentially any case regarding UDFAs, he profiles as a practice squad candidate once roster cuts are made at the end of the summer. The Saints’ other three quarterbacks – Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattlerand Jake Haener– are positioned to battle for the starting gig.
In the wake of the Carr retirement, Moore left the door open to a veteran addition under center. None came about during the late stages of free agency, though, so the Shough-Rattler-Haener trio is set to take part in an open competition. New Orleans has drafted a quarterback during each of the past three years, leaving each contender short on experience.
Shough emerged as a name to watch for the Saints during the pre-draft process as the team sought out a Carr successor capable of playing as early as this year. Entering the league as a 25-year-old, he certainly profiles as a candidate to see the field early at the NFL level. Over the course of his seven years in college, however, Shough only had one full campaign as a starter.
The Oregon/Texas Tech/Louisville product dealt with a number of injuries before managing to remain healthy for a full campaign in 2024. Shough’s size and arm strength made him an intriguing option in this year’s quarterback class, one which is not held in high regard compared to next year’s. Nevertheless, New Orleans could turn to him right away in a bid to evaluate his candidacy as a long-term answer under center.
2025 has seen a notable uptick in guaranteed compensation for second-round rookies. Shough, taken 40th overall, was a figure to watch as he joined the players selected around him in seeking a fully guaranteed pact. He recently succeeded in doing so, securing a favorable structure in terms of the payment schedule. That commitment does not ensure Shough will begin his career atop the depth chart, of course, but it illustrates how he will be a member of New Orleans’ QB setup for years to come.
Rattler fell to the fifth round of his draft class despite being the first signal-caller selected after the six first-rounders in 2024 came off the board. The Oklahoma and South Carolina product saw time after Carr was injured, recording a total of six starts. The Saints lost each of those contests while dealing with a number of other absences and ultimately finishing out the campaign under interim head coach Darren Rizzi. Rattler reached 240 passing yards only twice during his time as a starter, and he threw more interceptions (five) than touchdowns (four).
Expectations are certainly muted entering Year 2 as a result, although Rattler, 24, represents at least an affordable backup option for the remainder of his rookie contract. The arrival of Moore as head coach will offer him a fresh start after last year’s poor showing. A stretch with better health up front and at the receiver position could allow for a better evaluation of Rattler’s ceiling in the NFL. Whether or not he is capable of handling starting duties will be determined to a large extent in 2025, and training camp and the preseason will be key in Rattler’s assessment.
Haener did not see the field during his rookie campaign, one which included a PED suspension. The 26-year-old made one start after Carr’s injury last season, a one-point loss despite his 49 passing yards on four completions. If Moore and Co. keep Haener behind Rattler in the pecking order, the QB2 spot is the best-case scenario for the Washington/Fresno State alum.
Winning the starting gig is certainly a possibility entering camp, but Haener is also candidate to operate as the Saints’ emergency third quarterback if Shough and Rattler are still healthy by Week 1. It will be interesting to see if he can alter the depth chart based on how it stood during his first two NFL seasons.
How do you think New Orleans’ competition will play out? Vote in PFR’s latest poll on who you think will emerge as the team’s Week 1 starter and have your say in the comments section below.
The 2025 offseason has seen a number of high-profile receivers change teams via free agency. The likes of Davante Adams, Cooper Kuppand DeAndre Hopkinshave undertaken a change of scenery so far. The same will also soon be true of Keenan Allenand Amari Cooper.
This spring has also provided notable moves at the position via trade, however. A total of four swaps including wideouts have taken place in 2025; in three of those cases, the player included in the deal changed teams for the first time in their career. For all squads involved, the outcome of the trades will be key in determining their success this season and beyond.
March began with the 49ers sending Deebo Samuelto the Commanders. That deal – which yielded a fifth-round pick in return – came when team and player mutually agreed a parting ways was in order. Samuel had previously requested a trade, but his 2022 extension allowed him to remain in San Francisco. The 29-year-old has been unable to duplicate the production from his All-Pro campaign in 2021 when he showcased his receiving and rushing abilities.
Between a downturn in output and the massive extension which was (eventually) worked out with Brandon Aiyuklast offseason, many expected 2024 would be Samuel’s final year in the Bay Area. Shortly after the season ended, it became clear the Commanders were among the teams pursuing the former Pro Bowler. For at least one year (since he is a pending 2026 free agent), Samuel will offer the Commanders a veteran secondary WR option to complement perennial 1,000-yard performer Terry McLaurin.
Samuel saw his base salary for this year guaranteed via a restructure upon arrival in Washington. $3MM in incentives are present as well, adding to his earning potential on a Commanders team looking to replicate its surprising offensive success from 2024. The 49ers, meanwhile, will move forward with Aiyuk. Jauan Jenningsand a number of younger options capable of handling at least a depth receiver role.
Christian Kirkinitially appeared to be a cap casualty for the Jaguars this offseason. Instead of cutting the former Cardinal, however, the team’s new regime traded him inside the division to the Texans. A seventh-round pick in next year’s draft prevented Houston from having to win a bidding war for his services. Just like Samuel, Kirk restructured his contract shortly after being acquired.
The 28-year-old is also a pending free agent, so he too could prove to be a rental. Nico Collinswill remain WR1 for the Texans in 2025, but the loss of Stefon Diggsand the likelihood of Tank Dellmissing considerable time while recovering from multiple knee surgeries will give Kirk a notable role on his new team. Mentioned as a Steelers trade deadline target last fall, the former second-rounder saw his production decline over each of his three Jaguars seasons. Kirk should nevertheless be able to operate as a useful deep threat as the Texans transition to new offensive coordinator Nick Caley.
The skill positions have undergone many changes in Jacksonville this offseason. Kirk’s trade was accompanied by the decision to cut wideout/returner Devin Duvernay, along withGabe Davis. With Pro Bowl tight end Evan Engramalso no longer in the picture, first-year head coach Liam Coen will have a number of new pass catchers in place for 2025. The success of that new group will be a key talking point.
Even before March, D.K. Metcalf’s Seahawks future was uncertain. A desire to land a second extension (putting him near the top of the position’s market) paved the way for a trade request. General manager John Schneiderlater said finances were not at the heart of the decision to pull off a trade, noting the two-time Pro Bowler’s strong desire to move on. Seattle’s asking price originally included a first-round pick, but that was soon lowered.
In the end, a second-round selection (in addition to a swap of Day 3 selections) proved to be sufficient for the Steelers to acquire Metcalf. The trade was immediately followed by a four-year, $132MM extension agreement. As a result of that pact, Metcalf, 27, met his known goal of joining the list of receivers earning at least $30MM per season on average. His AAV of $33MM ranks fourth at the position.
As Seattle moves forward with a receiver group centered on Kupp (who was added on a homecoming deal following his Rams release) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Pittsburgh will rely heavily on Metcalf for 2025 and beyond. Questions loom about Pittsburgh’s 2025 quarterback starter and his upside, but expectations will be high for in Metcalf’s case as a player who has posted no fewer than 900 yards in each of his six NFL seasons.
At first, the Metcalf addition seemed to put the Steelers in place to pair him with George Pickensfor at least one campaign. The latter found himself on the move one month ago, however. Pickens was dealt to the Cowboys in exchange for a third-round pick in next year’s draft (with late-round selections in the 2027 event being exchanged as well).
Pickens – who did not request to be moved – has one year remaining on his rookie contract. The 24-year-old is not aiming to sign a Cowboys extension at this point, so much will depend on his performance with his new team. Of course, this situation will also contain plenty of scrutiny in terms of maturity and locker room fit in Dallas. Issues on those fronts led to an ambivalence among many Steelers with respect to Pickens’ departure.
The Cowboys did not draft a first-round receiver as many thought they would, but adding Pickens will provide the team with a high-potential CeeDee Lambcounterpart. A strong showing from that tandem will help Pickens’ market value on a re-signing or a long-term arrangement with a third team. For Pittsburgh, meanwhile, Metcalf’s supporting cast faces questions (although another pass-catching addition is being explored). The Steelers’ decision to make one lucrative investment at any given time in a receiver is common enough, but the impact of replacing Pickens with Metcalf will be felt in 2025 as well as future years.
Keeping in mind the prices paid in these trades and the other receiver-related moves made by the teams who parted ways with those involved in the swaps, which do you think will work out the best? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and have your say in the comments section below.
One of the main dominoes yet to fall amongst edge rushers this offseason is Trey Hendrickson. The 2024 sack leader remains on track for free agency next spring while the Bengals aim to keep him in the fold for years to come.
Efforts on Hendrickson’s part to land a long-term pact and a fresh round of guarantees did not produce traction toward a new deal last offseason. A trade request was issued just before the draft as a result, but Cincinnati made it clear to him no consideration on that front would be made by the team. In the end, no holdout took place during training camp and Hendrickson played on his existing pact.
Doing so certainly upped his leverage in contract talks, as the 30-year-old posted 17.5 sacks for the second straight season. Hendrickson could aim to land a new pact near the top of the EDGE market (which has already risen on two occasions this offseason and now sits at $40MM annually). The Bengals’ offseason intentions were clear with respect to keeping him in the fold along with wideouts Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
The latter two are indeed on the books, but their deals are worth a combined average of $61MM per year. Once Chase and Higgins inked their extensions, questions were again raised about the possibility of keeping Hendrickson in the fold beyond 2025. The four-time Pro Bowler will no doubt secure more than the $16MM he is owed for the coming campaign on his next pact, and making a lucrative commitment – having already made two at the WR spot to go along with quarterback Joe Burrow’s contract – would be challenging from a cap perspective in the Bengals’ case.
Unlike last offseason, the Bengals have been open to discussing a Hendrickson trade in recent months. Multiple offers have been rejected, a sign an extension could be within reach at some point this offseason. The negotiating process has not always gone smoothly, however, with public remarks from both team and player illustrating that point. At this point of the spring, plenty of time still remains for an agreement to be worked out.
Failing that, a trade will loom as an option for Cincinnati to consider before the 2025 deadline. A free agent departure would no doubt yield a compensatory pick, but dealing the All-Pro to an interested team ahead of the postseason could bring about a slightly better (or at least more immediate) return. Of course, if the Bengals are to return to the postseason in 2025, another year of strong play from Hendrickson – and an improved showing on defense under new DC Al Golden – will be critical. The team’s pass rush faces plenty of uncertainty elsewhere on the depth chart.
The Bengals used their top pick in this year’s draft on Shemar Stewart, banking on the Texas A&M product being able to translate his athleticism into NFL production (after he totaled just 4.5 sacks in college). Even if that proves to be the case, keeping Hendrickson in place will be crucial to Cincinnati’s efforts at finding a long-term tandem along the edge. Former first-rounder Myles Murphy– who was held without a sack in 13 games last year – is attached to his rookie contract through 2026 while Joseph Ossaire-signed on a one-year deal this spring.
Hendrickson remains a priority for the Bengals with the draft (a logical point at which a trade could have taken place) now in the books. It is still unclear, however, if a raise will be authorized by the team, one projected to have nearly $73MM in 2026 cap space (albeit with only 35 players currently under contract for next season). While there is still considerable runway for a resolution to emerge in this case, the threat of a training camp holdout looms.
How do you see this situation unfolding? Will Hendrickson play out a fifth season in Cincinnati and find himself elsewhere after that point (if not sooner)? Or will an arrangement past 2025 put an end to the questions surrounding his future? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and have your say in the comments section.
How will Trey Hendrickson's situation play out?
He will depart the Bengals after the 2025 season
36.11%
(611 votes)
He will be traded
33.22%
(562 votes)
He will sign a Bengals extension
30.67%
(519 votes)
As the Browns follow the Texans in constructing an extended departure ramp for Deshaun Watson, they have since added four quarterbacks. Each of the players would have a path to starting for a team that saw its highest-paid passer wildly disappoint before suffering two Achilles tears.
As Watson rehabs, the Browns are effectively moving on (though, a monumental dead money hit will loom if that happens in 2026). And the draft brought an unusual outcome. The Browns surprised most by taking Oregon’s Dillon Gabriellate in the third round. Gabriel came off the board 94th, shortly after Jalen Milroebut a full round before Shedeur Sanders. Widely anticipated to go in the first or second rounds, Sanders tumbled to 144th overall. The Browns stopped his skid hours after Andrew Berryhad deemed Gabriel a better fit.
Becoming the rare team to select two quarterbacks in the same draft, the Browns added the rookies to a position group housing Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco. (Flacco’s return and the ensuing draft moves will cut off a Kirk Cousins-to-Cleveland path.) The former arrived via trade in March, while the latter is back for a second tour of duty in Cleveland. Both veterans, Flacco especially, have extensive starting experience and could serve as placeholders. Though, we do not know yet who the bridge QBs will be setting up just yet.
Carrying the cheapest contract of the bunch, Sanders will undoubtedly bring by far the most attention. The Browns were once connected to potentially drafting the two-year Colorado starter second overall. A historic draft fall then commenced, allowing the team to trade up (via the Seahawks) for the polarizing prospect in the fifth round. Cleveland certainly did not plan to draft Sanders, but the value proved too enticing. A player viewed as a top-35 (or top-five, in Mel Kiper Jr.’s case) overall prospect will begin training for a potential starting role.
QBs chosen in Round 5 or later obviously have a low percentage shot of hitting, and the NFL effectively showed how it viewed Sanders this weekend. Sanders’ draft slide dwarfed Malik Willis‘ from 2022, as it appeared teams deemed Deion Sanders‘ son/pupil not worth the potential distractions he may bring. Shedeur’s attitude during pre-draft visits came up as one of the reasons he fell, and he is not going to a team that has done well at the quarterback position, for the most part, since rebooting in 1999. That said, Sanders could also make the highly unusual trek from fifth-round rookie to starter. Not too much is blocking him, should outside evaluators’ view be accurate (compared to a perception within the league).
The Browns saw Flacco deliver one of the most memorable QB stretches since they reemerged at the turn of the century, having seen the then-38-year-old join the practice squad and serve as a stunningly effective emergency replacement for Watson. Although Flacco earned Comeback Player of the Year acclaim for his five-game run that lifted an injury-plagued Browns offense to the playoffs, he is now 40 and coming off an unremarkable Colts cameo.
Indianapolis had benched Anthony Richardson in hopes Flacco could stabilize the offense, as a potential playoff berth was deemed a priority over Richardson development. After already subbing for an injured Richardson early last year, Flacco could not hold the job as an non-injury fill-in.
Shane Steichen benched Flacco after a three-INT game in Minnesota, and although he did return to replace Richardson late in the season (featuring a 330-yard loss to the Giants — in a game that cost the NFC East team Cam Ward), the Browns stand to have a diminished version of the former Super Bowl MVP compared to their 2023 edition. Still, Flacco has a path to the Week 1 gig as well.
Pickett could also lay claim to the role, but the Browns picking two quarterbacks by Round 5 also could lead him out of town. The former Steelers No. 20 overall pick has now been traded in back-to-back offseasons, with the second sending historically ineffective Browns backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson to Philly. Pickett did not impress in his second Steelers season, wrapping a 24-start tenure with 13 TD passes. Pittsburgh traded Pickett after he did not respond well to the Russell Wilson signing, as the Pitt alum sought a new team. Pickett’s struggles against the Commanders led to a late-season Eagles loss, and he left his lone Jalen Hurts relief start with a rib injury.
One season remains on Pickett’s rookie deal, which calls for a $2.62MM base salary. The Browns would take on that amount in dead money if they were to waive Pickett. That did not appear much of a possibility before the draft, as 2022’s top QB choice arrived before Flacco to at least compete for the starting job. But subsequent events complicate that route. Although, two-time Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski having a crack at Pickett — after embattled OC Matt Canada did not do much with him — at least represents an intriguing wild card here.
The first QB the Browns chose this year will step into the unusual spot of being overshadowed by a rookie in his own position group. Gabriel will come to Ohio having been Cleveland’s preference over Sanders, but he will now have to prove it in a way he may not have before the latter investment. Ranked 148th on Daniel Jeremiah‘s NFL.com big board (128 spots behind Sanders), Gabriel started throughout his college career — at Central Florida, Oklahoma and Oregon.
The Ducks’ Bo Nix successor played in a tougher conference, after Oregon’s Big Ten move, and won the league’s Offensive Player of the Year award. That did not result in draft gurus viewing the 5-foot-11 QB as anything but a Day 3 prospect, but the Browns disagreed and will give him a chance to start.
While one of these QBs could be sent to the practice squad, it would be unlikely if Sanders or Gabriel cleared waivers. Pickett would also need to clear waivers to be stashed. Though, it is now easier to imagine Pickett reaching free agency than one of Cleveland’s two recent QB draftees. This complicated situation will be the runaway lead Browns story moving forward, as the Myles Garrett matter is settled. The team’s QB future was supposed to loom large in the Browns regrouping with Garrett, but if this plan does not work out, Berry also secured an extra 2026 first-round pick by trading out of the Travis Hunterdraft slot.
Who will win the offseason competition? And, more importantly, who do you think will end the season as the team’s primary starter? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this swiftly evolving setup in the comments section.
Cam Wardhas long cemented himself as the top quarterback prospect in the eyes of almost all evaluators for the 2025 draft. As a result, he is in position to be selected first overall by the Titans.
Tennessee received interest in the top pick, but Ian Rapoport of NFL Network confirms the team is not prepared to trade down. As such, Ward remains on track to take over QB1 duties with the Titans as one of the passers added on the opening night of the draft. Whether or not he will be joined by other prospects at the position on Day 1 remains to be seen.
The 2025 QB class is known to lack in surefire prospects compared to previous years, and ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports at least one team has not assigned a first-round grade to any of this year’s passers. In spite of that, Ward is expected to come off the board first, and several other teams will have the opportunity to select a signal-caller. The Browns and Giants could very well use the second and third picks on Travis Hunterand Addul Carter and turn their attention to drafting a quarterback at the top of the second round. Trading back into the first-round order could also be in play, though, and a move on that front would be aimed at landing a long-term answer under center.
In addition to Cleveland and New York, New Orleans and Pittsburgh have been named as potential landing spots for a Day 1 passer. The Saints’ immediate situation at the position is uncertain due to Derek Carr‘s injury status, but using the No. 9 pick on a replacement is not expected. Instead, the team could use the second round to target an addition. The Saints have made calls about moving up early on the second day of the draft.
Many teams are likelier to prioritize moving down the order rather than up given the nature of this year’s draft class. The Steelers are believed to be among them, but the 21st selection could provide them with the chance to select a quarterback. Shedeur Sanders– who has a fan in the form of Mike Tomlin – could still be on the board when Pittsburgh is on the clock, a situation the team did not originally anticipate. Even if Aaron Rodgerswinds up signing with the Steelers, a long-term investment would come as no surprise.
Jaxson Darthas been mentioned as a candidate to be selected in the first round for quite some time, and the Steelers are among the teams which view the Ole Miss product as a Day 1 prospect. The Saints, meanwhile, have done extensive homework on Dart as well, and Giants head coach Brian Daboll is known to be high on him. The prospect of Dart being selected before Sanders has been raised on multiple occasions, and such a scenario could easily result in three QBs coming off the board Thursday.
A fourth signal-caller being drafted is not expected as things stand. With that said, multiple general managers and coaches informed Jason La Canfora of the Washington Post it would not be a shock if that were to take place. Alabama’s Jalen Milroeor Louisville’s Tyler Shoughwould be names to watch in that scenario. Despite his age, the latter is seen by more than one team as the top prospect at the position, and his stock has improved over the pre-draft process. Especially if one or more suitors pursued a move at the back of the first round, they could find themselves jockeying for position to add a passer.
With the countdown to the draft nearly over, how do you see things playing out? Will Ward have company as a Day 1 quarterback, or will the next tier of signal-callers experience a slide down the board? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and have your say in the comments section.
How many quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round?
