Odds Against Dak Prescott Extension?

4:46pm, July 12: The latest news coming out of the endless Prescott-Cowboys saga points to the quarterback playing 2020 on the tag as well. Prescott and the Cowboys are not close to reaching an extension agreement by the Wednesday deadline, Calvin Watkins of the Dallas Morning News tweets.

5:42pm, July 11: The Cowboys began extension talks with Dak Prescott in mid-April 2019. Fifteen months later, they have four days to finalize a deal to avoid their quarterback playing the 2020 season on the franchise tag.

While the Cowboys are not worried, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com notes several league sources do not expect a deal to be finalized (video link). Prescott has signed his $31.4MM franchise tender, and the Cowboys are prepared (if necessary) for their fifth-year quarterback to play the season on the tag.

Prescott has held firm on his goal of a four-year deal, as opposed to the Cowboys’ five-year preference, and nothing has transpired on this front in months. The process is expected to go to the deadline, per Fowler. This reminds of Dallas’ standoff with Dez Bryant, which ended minutes before the 2015 July deadline. Only Prescott’s position brings higher stakes for the Cowboys.

The 27-year-old passer has aimed for a deal that exceeds Russell Wilson‘s $35MM-per-year pact. While Patrick Mahomes is now attached to a $45MM-AAV deal, the Chiefs quarterback’s 10-year agreement may not have too much bearing on Prescott’s situation because of his preference for a short-term deal. That stance will limit the Cowboys’ desire to up his price, and John Clayton of the Washington Post notes Jerry Jones would still like Prescott’s price to come in below the $35MM-AAV mark.

The Cowboys have signed several members of their current core to extensions over the past two years. Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, DeMarcus Lawrence, Jaylon Smith and Zack Martin all signed for more than four years. Their last known offer to Prescott was worth just more than $33MM annually, putting Prescott in the neighborhood of fellow 2016 draftees Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. Prescott turned down a $33MM-per-year proposal last season.

Dallas managed to re-sign Cooper and add several defensive pieces this year, despite Prescott’s tag price going on its books in March. Prescott playing this season on the tag, however, would remind of Kirk Cousins‘ situation in Washington. The current Vikings quarterback played 2016 and ’17 on the tag before leaving Washington as a free agent in 2018. A second Prescott tag would cost the Cowboys $37.7MM next year, when the cap may either decline or remain at $198MM due to the COVID-19 pandemic’s imminent attendance impact. A third tag in 2022 would be at an untenable $54MM-plus.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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41 comments on “Odds Against Dak Prescott Extension?

  1. JJB0811

    Dallas should have cut the cord and signed Cam for $1m (whatever the pats got him for). Bu I admire Dak for sticking to his guns. He’s confident in his value and holding firm.

    • crosseyedlemon

      I think Tony Romo would be a better investment than a QB with one working shoulder.

    • harden-westbrook-mvps

      Maybe not even that long. It will cost a fortune to franchise him again.

  2. DTD_ATL

    I’d bet money they already have a deal done. Jerry loves the spotlight so he wants as much attention on this as possible. They’ll announce right at the cut off time.

    • harden-westbrook-mvps

      If they already had a deal done it would have been announced long before Mahomes mega-deal which will only make things that much harder for Dallas.

      • DTD_ATL

        Dak and his agents know they aren’t gonna get Mahomes money, not even close to it. Dak’s deal will be based on his and the team’s situation, nothing more.

        • Roll

          he originally wanted 40M which is what Mahomes was expected to get. We all know the game of start high but do you think he will come down with Mahomes getting even more than expected? Im thinking closer to 40 if not 40 is what he wants now.

  3. Jimmy Johnson’s Ghost

    “The 27-year-old passer has aimed for a deal that exceeds Russell Wilson‘s $35MM-per-year pact. While Patrick Mahomes is now attached to a $45MM-AAV deal”

    Russell Wilson, Pat Mahomes, Dak Prescott…. which name of those 3 doesn’t belong with the other 2?

    • Mikel Grady

      Jimmy Johnson ghost , agree but doesn’t Prescott belong in Goff, Wentz group ? Don’t understand Cowboys . Agree to the 4 years if he doesn’t lead you to the promised land you win , if he does you win and if he walks go get the next qb of future . What’s 1 year ? I think most teams if they had Dak would only want a 4 year deal

      • Jimmy Johnson’s Ghost

        Goff is overpriced and doesn’t elevate his team, so I guess you can put him and Prescott in the same class. Those 2 are very similar in my opinion, 2 QBs that benefit immensely from playing on teams with talent all over the field. Just because Goff is overpriced doesn’t make it right. Do you think Goff is worth that kind of $ Mikel?
        As for Wentz I know people like to bash him but 2 years ago (before his knee injury) he was on his way to be the NFL MVP, and last season with a playoff spot on the line he slapped Prescott and the Cowboys with a bunch of practice squad WRs. I thought it was an example of a QB elevating the players around him.
        I’m on board for 1 more season of Prescott but if the team finishes 8-8, 9-7 I’m out. 4 more years? Not interested. I need to see this team take the next step first. Im of the opinion that Prescott needs pieces to be successful and once he gets paid Dallas will not be able to keep this roster intact.

        • DTD_ATL

          Is there a QB that doesn’t need pieces around him to be successful? I’ve yet to find one. This offense is going to be successful simply because the offensive minds on the coaching staff finally match the talent. The defense still has a ton of question marks. Is there enough talent there to help the offense? I don’t see it unless Nolan and his multiple looks is the saving grace. Unless injuries decimate them, anything less than 10 wins and a playoff victory is a bad yr.

      • justinkm19

        Since 18-19 look at Brady’s, Daks, and Aaron Rodgers’ numbers side by side. You’ll be surprised. Dak is near the top in a lot of statistical categories since coming into the league.

        If Aikman was still the Qb there would be people that say he sucks, just because he’s the QB of the Cowboys.

        • Roll

          @justinkm19

          Look at the talent around Brady and Rodgers vs the talent thats been around Dak. If you were to put Brady or Rodgers on the Cowboys last year they would have probably moonwalked to the Super Bowl. I mean it was tough for Dak to get to the super …. oh thats right he couldnt even make the playoffs.

          The only team that he beat last year with a winning record was the Eagles which handed him a defeat when it mattered and the Rams which the 2 RBs had more yds on the ground than Prescott did passing.

          He simply can not compete with decent teams, with the team he has had. Now talent will be leaving due to salary issues and you expect him to do better with less talent when nothing shows that he has been able to do that?

          • Jimmy Johnson’s Ghost

            Roll. This guy gets it. Take away the NFC East from his record and Prescott is a .500 QB.

            • Roll

              @jimmy

              actually take out the nfc east games and he is 3-7 including a loss to the Jets who were pretty pitiful at that time of the year. This makes him a .300 QB with an elite offense around him. Could you imagine what it would be like anywhere else?

  4. Tazza

    It’s really a case of Dak wanting his market value (not his actual worth) and the cowboys wanting to pay him what he is actually worth.

    Dak knows 25% of NFL teams will probably give him 35mil next offseason whereas the cowboys know they don’t need a top 5 paid QB to be great they have an o line, they have a RB, they have WRers, they have a decent defence and simply can’t afford that.

    It makes sense that they will simply part ways and both parties will be better off.

    My Prediction Dak has offers from Steelers, Saints, Colts, Raiders, Buccs and possibly more. Cowboys could look into Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Jacoby Brissett and Jameis Winston via Free Agency or Derek Carr via a trade.

    Derek Carr for Dak Prescott could be a solid start to a trade. Carr is cheaper and reliable while still young ish and Prescott would be a sign of a fresh start in Las Vegas for the Raiders. would be exciting times with a new QB, a young exciting RB and a young quick WR in Jacobs and Ruggs

      • Tazza

        Why? Carr is underappreciated.

        Last year Carr threw the ball more accurately (5% better completion percentage). Carr didn’t end up with a bunch of yards like Dak did but he also didn’t throw the ball for 560+ attempts he only had 487 attempts.

        Dak with one of the best o lines and help such as Zeke and Amari Cooper had 26 TDs and 11 INTS. Carr had 20 TDs and 8 INTS and that’s with almost 100 less passing attempts without elite help.

        I think Jerry Jones would happily take Carr whos getting paid about 20mil per season. Carr in the Cowboys offence with that line and those weapons puts up better numbers than Dak and has a better record than 8-8. have to remember Carr finished third in MVP voting in 2016 and is a three-time pro bowler who has been on some bad Raiders teams, Dak has always had a great line protecting him and always had an elite RB.

    • Natergater77

      So your prediction is that he ends up with one of 25% of the teams in the league and that Dallas makes a move for one of 5 QBs (one already on their team)

      Man you go out a limb with your hot takes

  5. Jordan

    Ya don’t understand why the cowboys are balking on the 1 year. I don’t think he’s worth the money to begin with but they are in a tough spot because there is no one else to replace him.

  6. bigeasye

    I’m assuming he and his agent have surveyed the market and know what he can make on the open market next year. What jobs will be open? Also factoring Lawrence and fields will be drafted next year.
    Possibilities:
    Jaguars (no chance they spend 35 mill)
    Raiders potentially
    Patriots
    Colts
    Bears
    Am I missing someone?

    • Roll

      The teams he should be looking at and hope he gets a shot is the

      Jaguars
      Patriots
      Saints

      Raiders have Carr Marriota and for whatever reason Gruden has a hardon for Peterman. If Carr is gone i expect Marriota to be top guy because Gruden likes him too with Peterman backing him up

      Colts have Eason they drafted and i think they bring back one of Rivers or Brissett as Dak would be too expensive.

      At that price he is looking i think he knocks the Bears off the list with Foles making as much as he is. If he drops to the mid 20s or high 20s maybe but that would open the list up more as well.

      You also have to remember that you will have Brissett/Rivers Dalton Winston Newton and to a lesser degree Fitzpatrick Trubisky Muellens (49ers backup who did Solid in his short stint as starter in 18) along with those draft picks.

  7. Dorothy_Mantooth

    No way Dak gets $35M from ANY other team besides Dallas. He should have happily signed for $33M with 3 years fully guaranteed. I could see Jerry signing Jameis Winston or Cam Newton next year and sending Dak on his way. Dak will be lucky to get an offer of $30M from any other team next year should that happen. He has yet to prove he can win big games consistently, which is much more important than video game stats.

    • crosseyedlemon

      Winston hasn’t even been able to win small games consistently and if Newton is available next year it means he has regressed so badly that Brian Hoyer would be a better option.

      • Natergater77

        I agree, Cam is only on the market is 1- Bill is ready to start Stidham or 2-Cam was just awful. Neither leave Newton in good light to get a big multi year contract.

        Winston will need to go the Bridgewater route and spend at least 2 years in New Orleans showing he can be the man.

        All that said, Dax will get over $38 a year because the market demands it. And if he makes FA it is always a bidding war. Someone like Jax who is desperate for a QB will bid and then a team that thinks they have the answer only not to will be involved. Does, Washington have a QB or will they move on from Haskins? Too many opportunities for Dax not to get a big contratc

  8. posers2015

    Andy Dalton, with a year of experience in the Cowboys system, is the insurance policy Jerry needs in case he has to go back to the draft to replace Dak.

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