Entering the 2022 college football season, it was widely understood that the top of this year’s draft class would be more highly-touted than the previous spring’s crop of prospects. The presumed No. 1 pick was Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. As the regular season winds down, however, that may no longer be the case. 
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. writes that there is “serious doubt creeping in” with respect to Anderson being the first to hear his name called. Expectations were high for the true junior in 2022, after his massive production from the year before. His 17.5 sacks led the country in 2021, and left him fifth in Heisman voting.
2022 has not been a large disappointment from a statistical standpoint. Anderson has racked up eight sacks and 14 tackles for loss for the Crimson Tide, and totaled 60 QB pressures. That figure was 82 during his sophomore campaign, though, so a slight regression could be held against him during the pre-draft process. Kiper notes, however, that a drop in Anderson’s stock is not so much a reflection of his performance but a combination of other factors.
Quarterbacks – in particular Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Anderson’s teammate Bryce Young – have been in the conversation for the top pick, especially within the context of which team will end up with the No. 1 slot. If the Texans or Panthers have the opportunity to find their next franchise signal-caller, it would come as little surprise if Anderson is passed up. Kentucky’s Will Levis has also been mentioned as a contender to be the top quarterback in the class, though he has had a far more inconsistent college career to date.
Even if the first pick or two ends up being a passer, it is hardly a guarantee that Anderson will be the first defender to hear his name called at the draft. Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter has been as advertised this season, leading another stout Bulldogs defense despite previously dealing with a knee injury. Even if Anderson enjoys a strong finish to the campaign, then, he will not necessarily be the lock for the top pick that he was once considered.
Shocking that a draft with high level QB prospects will probably have a QB go first overall even with a better prospect at another position.
I don’t know anybody who thought Anderson was going 1st
I have never understood the point of mock drafting anywhere near this early. At least wait for both the collegiate and professional seasons to conclude first. So much can change over the next six months that speculating is a waste of everyone’s time IMO
As a reader, I think it can be good as a way of seeing who’s on people’s radars and why. Not every rando, but I like seeing who guys like Dane Brugler or Mike Renner are eyeing. Not coincidentally, those guys aren’t cranking out mocks every couple of weeks for clicks.
I should rephrase; I like analyzing what prospects I should be looking out for at each position throughout the season.
It’s more the obsessiveness with draft order: we still don’t know who’s going to be drafting where, whose stock will rise/plummet in the coming weeks, and who’s even going to be healthy
I don’t mind the process, but your point follows as far as taking any real stock in the system.
W13- me too! Tbh the same applies to all the draft grades assigned to teams that come out the day after the NFL draft. Or same day articles on who “won a trade!”
I enjoy reading this type of content to get another person’s POV on their reasons behind the grading. What I don’t enjoy however is the fact that so many people take mock drafts and trade analysis so literal. The Whole notion of a team winning a draft before their players play one snap in the Pros or assigning a winner in a trade before they play one game is completely absurd to me!
I mean…kind of a “duh” statement. Houston seems likely to get that #1 and they’re not going linebacker. (Unless BoB shows up again)
They need a QB badly and will go with Stroud or Young. (My guess is Young.)
Don’t discount the possibility of the Bears trading up one spot so they can select a prospect that would still be available in the third round…lol.
That was the old regime (Pace). Poles seems more savvy. I expect the Bears will secure a top 5 pick in the next draft. Poles will trade down for more picks, and focus on surrounding Fields with protection and weapons. I think he’ll use free agency to upgrade the defense. They may well end up with a .500 team next year, and a strong Superbowl contender in ‘24.
There’s no way to evaluate Poles yet because he has just been filling in gaps with journeymen and low cost castoffs from other teams. At some point he will have to step up to the plate and put his reputation on the line. Hard to imagine him being worse than Pace but he might just be another GM passing through Chicago. I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve watched this same movie.
Huh? When did that or anything like that happen
I’m not a huge fan of Young or Stroud. I’d rather give the patriots a pick or 2 for Zappe and trade back or draft someone like Hendon Hooker later on. Pick up some help on offensive line and some receivers to go along with Cooks and Collins. Plus a complimentary RB to Pierce.
The only benefit of mock drafts, especially the 2 and 3 round mocks are to see which prospects that they have skated for the first three rounds now.
It is interesting to see the overall change of the mocks though as the combine takes place, and you see how it impacts the stock and projection of prospects..
It never fails that one or two prospects move from 2nd Round projections to middle first Rounders by having outstanding pro days and combines. Just like it never fails one or two prospects will fall from being early to mid first Rounders due to their 40 times.
Typically, these rash judgments rarely ever pay off in the early rounds, and teams are often rewarded for selecting good players with good tape.
The combine really tends to pay off more when you’re looking at smaller school prospects in the mid to later rounds with excellent combine results. Well, at least that’s the trend that I’ve been noticing lately.
Will was never a good player this year. The NIL and the projected #1 draft pick went to his head and was like rat poison.