This will be the third offseason for the tiered fifth-year option format. The NFL’s 2020 CBA changed the option structure for first-round picks, fully guaranteeing the options but doing so based on performance and usage rate. The 2011 CBA gave teams flexibility by making the options guaranteed for injury only, allowing franchises to cut players free of charge as long as they passed March physicals. The 2018, ’19 and ’20 draft classes have now gained access to fully guaranteed options.
Players who have been original invitees to two or more Pro Bowls reside on the top tier. Here is how those numbers will look in 2023, courtesy of SI.com’s Albert Breer (on Twitter):
- Quarterback: $32.42MM
- Running back: $10.09MM
- Wide receiver: $19.74MM
- Tight end: $11.35MM
- Offensive line: $18.24MM
- Defensive end: $19.73MM
- Defensive tackle: $18.94MM
- Linebacker: $20.93MM
- Cornerback: $18.14MM
- Safety: $14.46MM
- Kicker/punter: $5.39MM
If those numbers look familiar, they are equal to this year’s nonexclusive franchise tag figures. The second tier consists of one-time Pro Bowlers; those figures match the 2023 transition tag numbers.
- Quarterback: $29.5MM
- Running back: $8.43MM
- Wide receiver: $17.99MM
- Tight end: $9.72MM
- Offensive linemen: $16.66MM
- Defensive end: $17.45MM
- Defensive tackle: $16.1MM
- Linebacker: $17.48MM
- Cornerback: $15.79MM
- Safety: $11.87MM
- Kicker/punter: $4.87MM
Participation impacts the final two tiers. Players who achieve any of the following will get the average of the third-20th highest salaries at their position. Tier 3 consists of players who played at least 75% in two of their first three seasons, those who averaged at least a 75% snap share through three seasons or those who crossed the 50% snap barrier in each of their initial three slates.
- Quarterback: $23.17MM
- Running back: $5.99MM
- Wide receiver: $14.12MM
- Tight end: $7.23MM
- Offensive line: $14.18MM
- Defensive end: $13.12MM
- Defensive tackle: $11.67MM
- Linebacker: $12.72MM
- Cornerback: $12.34MM
- Safety: $8.37MM
- Kicker/punter: $3.98MM
The fourth and final tier consists of players who failed to reach those participation rates:
- Quarterback: $20.27MM
- Running back: $5.46MM
- Wide receiver: $12.99MM
- Tight end: $6.57MM
- Offensive line: $12.57MM
- Defensive end: $12.14MM
- Defensive tackle: $10.46MM
- Linebacker: $11.73MM
- Cornerback: $11.51MM
- Safety: $7.68MM
- Kicker/punter: $3.71MM
Teams have until May 1 to exercise or decline players’ fifth-year options. Option declines will make those players 2024 unrestricted free agents.
Only Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson and Buccaneers tackle Tristan Wirfs will be eligible for the first tier. Despite Justin Herbert being designated the AFC’s Pro Bowl starter last year and winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2020, the Chargers star only has received one original Pro Bowl invite. Ditto Joe Burrow, who received his first invite this season. The AFC’s deep Pro Bowl contingent did not include Burrow in 2021, while this year’s Patrick Mahomes-fronted group excluded Herbert.
While this will allow the Bengals and Chargers slight discounts for their centerpieces’ 2024 options, both teams should be expected to begin extension talks this offseason. The Cardinals did so with Kyler Murray last year, locking him down through 2028 and rendering his 2023 fifth-year option moot. The Giants did not discuss an extension with Daniel Jones, and the contract-year QB transformed his value this season.
Despite his 2021 and ’22 seasons being largely defined by injuries, Commanders defensive end Chase Young does as well. Cowboys wideout CeeDee Lamb is also on Tier 2, thanks to his 2022 Pro Bowl nod. Giants tackle Andrew Thomas and Falcons cornerback AJ Terrell have emerged as quality performers at their positions, each being named second-team All-Pros (Terrell in 2021, Thomas this season). Neither have received Pro Bowl invitations, however, dropping them down to Tier 3.
I’m wondering why there is a distinction between defensive line positions but all offensive line positions are treated the same. I also believe an all pro kicker has substantially more value than a top punter yet they are allocated the same value on the list.