In recent NFL annals, the list of HCs to go 0-for-3 in playoff berths to start a tenure and then be brought back for a fourth year is not long. While Robert Saleh is on track to buck this trend and be brought back after (in all likelihood) three non-playoff seasons in New York, the Falcons are also not expected to shake up their staff.
Although Atlanta is tied for the NFC South lead, the team may not need to make the playoffs for Arthur Smith to keep his job. The Falcons are not expected to, barring a collapse, fire Smith in 2024, ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler notes. This differs from a status report on this job last month, which indicated Smith was more likely to go than stay in 2024.
After their loss to the Buccaneers, the Falcons are 6-7. The team finished 7-10 in each of Smith’s first two seasons. The Falcons launched a bit of a rebuild under Smith and GM Terry Fontenot, taking on considerable dead money to move the Julio Jones, Matt Ryan and Deion Jones contracts. But the team is looking likely to exit Year 3 without the quarterback position being solved. Desmond Ridder has submitted an inconsistent season, being benched for Taylor Heinicke at one point, after the Falcons backed the 2022 third-round pick throughout the offseason.
Ridder ranks 24th in QBR and, despite the Falcons choosing pass catchers in the top 10 in 2021 (Kyle Pitts) and 2022 (Drake London), has thrown just nine touchdown passes (compared to nine INTs) this season. The Falcons, who were in position to trade for Deshaun Watson had the Browns not come through with the astonishing $230MM guarantee offer last year, joined the rest of the NFL in not pursuing Lamar Jackson this offseason. Arthur Blank expressed an interest in building around Ridder’s rookie contract, but the Falcons may need to explore an upgrade in 2024.
The Falcons ranked third in rushing last season but struggled mightily through the air in the largely Marcus Mariota-quarterbacked campaign. After ranking 15th in points scored last season, Atlanta sits 24th in Ridder’s first full year as a starter. Active in adding defenders this offseason, the team has improved from 23rd to 12th under new DC Ryan Nielsen. But Smith was hired to jumpstart Atlanta’s offense. For the most part, that has not happened.
The NFC South has produced one of the worst two-year periods of any division in NFL history, as it could potentially send a second straight sub-.500 team to the playoffs once again. Every coach in the division has either ventured to a hot seat or already been fired (Frank Reich). The Falcons close the season with only one team (the 7-6 Colts) left on their schedule with a winning record. This could give Smith a final platform to convince ownership he deserves a fourth season. Should the Falcons retain Smith for 2024, he will certainly enter the season on a scorching seat.
My god. I cannot understand how this man gets to keep a job
Simple. From his Wikipedia page: “Smith’s father is FedEx founder and former CEO Frederick W. Smith.”
CEO Frederick W. Smith — I believe was also a partner in the payout of Dan Snyder and the Washington Football Team. Bet he also has a shipping deal with Home Depo as well.
What a repugnant waste of the talents of Potts, Robinson, & London. I’m not a fan of ATL but ffs see the forest for the trees
Pitts*
As a falcons fan not sure how I feel about this. The issues is more than smith
If true, they’ll be sub .500 next year as well. That easy to say.
And still competing for the division…
Wow! One and done this year and next gets you excited?
I said there was an agreement that year 4 was the year. Tight end, wr, rb next year is quarterback time and probably Justin fields for a 2. If not maybe a strong push for Kirk cousins