According to ESPN’s Brady Henderson, it is not certain that quarterback Geno Smith will be back with the Seahawks in 2024. After all, longtime head coach Pete Carroll — who was one of Smith’s biggest champions and who frequently deflected blame away from the veteran passer — has been shifted to an advisory role. GM John Schneider now holds final say over personnel matters, and his evaluation of Smith’s performance is not as glowing as Carroll’s was.
“I think Geno had a good season,” Schneider said last month. “It was a little bit opposite of [2022]. He started out real strong last year and things dipped a little bit the second half. And then I thought this year he started out not quite as strong as last year and then finished in a real strong manner.”
Henderson, whose piece was published before Seattle hired Mike Macdonald as its new head coach, noted that Schneider would of course discuss Smith’s future with his new HC. At his introductory press conference, Macdonald offered praise for Smith, saying that he has “great respect” for him.
“We’ve played against Geno,” Macdonald added (via the team’s official website). “He’s a really good player. I’m pretty sure he’s at the Pro Bowl right now. We’re going to build around the quarterback. You’ve got to.”
At the risk of inferring meaning where there is none, Macdonald did not explicitly commit to Smith as the quarterback around whom the Seahawks would be building, and the team is still in search of a new offensive coordinator, who will also have input into the matter. That said, Henderson suggests Smith has a good chance to return as Seattle’s QB1.
If the team chooses to go in a different direction, Henderson believes a trade is more likely than a release. Smith’s $12.7MM salary for 2024, currently guaranteed for injury only, converts to a full guarantee on February 16. That is effectively the deadline to cut Smith, but not necessarily to trade him. He is not due his $9.6MM roster bonus until March 17 — the fifth day of the new league year — and by that time, the team will have had the chance to explore the quarterback options it might have in this year’s draft (to say nothing of getting some sort of trade compensation from an acquiring club).
As Schneider observed, Smith performed well down the stretch of the 2023 season, although he was unable to match the overall production of his breakout 2022 performance. In 2022, Smith led the league in completion percentage (69.8) and threw for 30 TDs against 11 interceptions, which amounted to a 100.9 quarterback rating and 62.8 QBR. In two fewer games in 2023, the former second-round pick of the Jets completed 64.7% of his passes for 20 touchdowns and nine picks, leading to a quarterback rating of 92.1 and a QBR of 59.5. If Macdonald & Co. can help Smith marry the first half of his 2022 campaign with the second half of his 2023 season, they may be on to something.
Although he is due to hit free agency in March, Drew Lock would be the most likely candidate to assume the QB1 job — at least in the short-term — if the Seahawks were to part ways with Smith. Schneider has long been high on the 27-year-old, who was a key part of the return in the 2022 blockbuster that sent Russell Wilson from Seattle to the Broncos, but as Henderson writes, Lock being retained as the starter would indicate that the ‘Hawks view 2024 as a retooling year, which is inconsistent with Schneider’s belief that his club is “on the cusp” of serious championship contention.
As Armando Salguero of Outkick.com wrote at the end of December, Lock views himself as a starter and will seek such an opportunity if he hits the open market. In two starts in relief of an injured Smith in 2023, Lock completed 68.8% of his passes for three TDs and two interceptions. He went 1-1 in those contests, with the one victory coming on an impressive late-game drive against the Eagles in Week 15.
Smith is under club control through 2025 and is due to carry a $31.2MM cap charge this year. Henderson suggests that, if the Seahawks move forward with Smith, they could look to convert some of his salary and/or roster bonus into a signing bonus to reduce that number.
What extra value do the Seahawks think they will get from someone else? Geno is the best option they have
Agree. Even if they draft another QB, it’s typically a good idea to work them in slowly. Most rookies are not as ready to start as Stroud and, even if they were, some team will likely be willing to trade for Geno before the deadline.
He had a better ‘22 than ‘23 but he’s still a solid QB he’s a way way better option than Lock for the Seahawks
He’s not a solid qb bottom half of the league at best bottom 8 if we’re being honest especially considering what he’s making
He has been better than guys like Russell Wilson!
Yeah, Wilson is a bottom 3 QB, while Smith is a bottom 10. Yeah, he is marginally better than Wilson.
Smith wasn’t a bottom ten QB this year, even with significant injury troubles on the offensive line. A lot of the QB situations in the NFL ended up being committees this year because of injuries, but Smith was certainly better than: the Jets QBs, the Patriots QBs, the Giants QBs, Sam Howell, the Titans QBs, the Colts QBs, the Steelers QBs, the Falcons’ QBs, Bryce Young, Russell Wilson, and the Raiders’ QBs.
That’s eleven without counting the Cardinals most of the year (if not all of it), the Browns most of the year before Flacco came in, and the Vikings after Cousins went down.
You’d have to include Locke in that group. Does being unavailable not make geno worse? After the first half of the year he was bad when he wasn’t unavailable due to injuries. I’ll take Aiden McConnell and half of those other guys over geno especially when you consider the cap hit
lol
Bottom 10 is a laughable assessment of Geno Smiths last couple years as a starter.
We may be nitpicking, but Wilson’s 26 TD/8 INT and 98 passer rating all significantly outclassed Smith’s in 2023. The gap is fairly large.
We are probably nitpicking for sure, but Geno threw for nearly 600 more yards, only threw one more pick (9), and had a QBR almost 10 points higher than Wilson. And also, he did it without being a complete tool bag.
Tool bag aside, I don’t think that the gap is nearly as big as it’s been discussed. Wilson produced, but he should have produced much more. Smith settled in this year about at expectations. The real advantage is the minuscule amount of money Smith is making compared to Wilson. I don’t think Smith is better, but the fact that Wilson is even being compared to Smith should be disappointing to begin with, especially at that cap figure.
With Smith, you can at least try to throw across the middle, and play from the pocket better. That’s the real advantage, which is the reason that Wilson is so limiting. Smith might not give you the big plays or athletic talent, but he’s also cheaper and more adaptable than the very limited and expensive Wilson. I think that I’d say is that Smith is about ended up about where I expected, but that Wilson disappointed (though he was better than last year by a lot…that says how bad he was last year). Which one is better I guess is up for interpretation.
His QB Rating & QBR state otherwise. Those put him in the top 1/2. Certainly better than Luck or a QB FA.
He is nowhere close to bottom 8 no matter what metrics you want to use.
Seems like a perfect team to take a shot on one of the second/third tier QBs in this draft, whoever they like that lasts to the third or fourth round among guys like McCarthy, Rattler, or Pratt. Develop them behind Geno and you can always take another shot next year if you don’t like what you see. I don’t see a clear path to them doing better than Smith this year.
I agree. Go defense or O line in first and see what is their in 3rd round. Maybe they can do some trading and get a 2nd round. This looks like a good and deep QB draft.
Don’t forget Penix & Nix. One or both will be drafted after McCarthy.
I’m not sure if any of those will be there in the third round.
Michael Pratt from Tulane is the only QB that may still be available in the 3rd round for SEA. The first 6 QB’s will be off the board by pick 45 or sooner.
DEN has to get a QB on a rookie deal thanks to that Wilson contract imo. I think McCarthy could go at #12 to DEN.
Depending on what the Falcons do I have them taking Bo Nix in the 2nd round at #43.
Michael Penix Jr. to the Raiders at #44.
The Vikings could take a QB at #11 or #42.
I wouldn’t be shocked if the NYG took Nix or Penix at #39.
LAR could draft a guy to take over for Stafford when that time comes, LAR could surprised a lot of teams and select a QB at pick #19.
Still think TEN could make a move but it depends on how they feel about Levis.
It is a QB rich draft, who is going to work out long-term is to be determined.
Seattle is the team that trades for Justin Fields.
Seattle already has two really good young running backs. Why would they want Fields? Seattle needs to improve on defense, not spend draft capital on a QB that is so bad the freaking Bears don’t want him.