A sixth QB has come off the board, and the Broncos are indeed among the teams which have added a new signal-caller. Denver has drafted Oregon passer Bo Nix.
The recent Ducks standout had the murkiest outlook of all the top QB prospects. He ultimately fell in order behind the projected top-five at the position, but it’s a bit of a surprise that he landed as early as No. 12.
No less, the selection was made by Sean Payton, who had never taken a first-round QB in his long NFL career. The Broncos, however, emerged as the team most closely connected to the ex-Auburn recruit, being tied to him in early February. That turned out to be telling, as the Vikings traded up to No. 10 to ensure they landed the other QB the Broncos were closely tied to (J.J. McCarthy).
Nix put up less-than-impressive numbers during his time at Auburn, but a transfer to Oregon ahead of the 2022 campaign paved the way for his draft stock rising considerably. He totaled 94 touchdowns (74 passing, 20 rushing) in his two seasons with the Ducks, remaining efficient as a passer. Nix completed 74.9% of his attempts at Oregon, throwing only 10 interceptions along the way.
While Nix may lack the upside of some of his draft counterparts, the Broncos are confident he can be a steady presence on their offense for years to come. The organization held a private workout with the Oregon product the day before his pro day; that intel only came out this week. The night before that private workout, the Broncos sent the prospect “three packets of offensive play installation,” and Nix proceeded to “crush it,” according to ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter. As a result, the Broncos felt comfortable taking him much earlier than many draft pundits expected.
Of course, it’s not a huge surprise that the Broncos were seeking a quarterback…it was just a question of which signal-caller they’d land on. The team moved on from Russell Wilson this offseason and did not do a whole lot to replace him. The organization recently acquired Zach Wilson from the Jets, adding the former second-overall pick to a depth chart that also features Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci. Considering that underwhelming trio, there’s a chance Nix runs with the starting job right away, although that depth could also afford the rookie some time on the bench.
There have now been six QBs selected within the first 12 picks. This matches the record-setting total that came off the board in the famous 1983 NFL Draft. The Broncos acquired a 16-year starter (via the Colts) in that draft, but while John Elway proved a revelation, the first-round arms Denver has chosen have not panned out since.
Tommy Maddox (1992), Jay Cutler (2006), Tim Tebow (2010) and Paxton Lynch (2016), did not become long-term QBs in Denver. The Broncos’ struggles post-Peyton Manning have been well documented, with Wilson being the most expensive failure. The Broncos will take on a record-setting $85MM in dead money ($53MM this year, which is a single-player record by itself) as a result of cutting Wilson. Nix will now come in as a cost-controlled option, one that could certainly define the Payton era in Denver.
Sam Robinson contributed to this post.
Media and the league acting like defense does not win championships.
It used to, but the rule changes have eliminated that certainty.
Did you watch the Super Bowl? Chief defense definitely won them that game.
True, but their offense won them the last one. That defense was 16th in points per game, which is one of the worst PPG rankings since the merger. Defense carries better than offense for sure in the playoffs and late in the year, but the rule isn’t so solid anymore.
Every Superbowl winner since 2017, excluding this year’s Chiefs, had a higher offensive PPG ranking than their respective defensive PPG ranking. That hasn’t been the case for most of the NFL’s existence, excluding a period in the 90s.
Bruins Sports Analytics has an interesting article regarding offensive and defensive trends in Superbowl winners, and others have done similar analysis. What used to be true (other than in the 1990s, where there was a solid eight year run of stronger offenses winning the big one), the last few years have seen a great boost in better offensive teams winning the title. Other than the Giants’ pair of wins, no team has completely been mediocre rankings-wise on BOTH sides of the ball, of course.
There is one interesting thing, though. Excluding this year’s playoffs, which I did not find data for, more offensive teams make the playoffs than defensive teams (as of 2022, the ratio I read was 85% for higher ranked offenses by PPG making the playoffs versus 79% for defensive teams). As the playoffs expand more and more and the rules continue to change, I expect that gap to widen. I’d guess that for most of the NFL’s existence, this trend was a but more in favor of defense, and the odds of reaching the championship itself showed a much higher favoritism towards a higher ranked defense. Since the NFL started its pro-offensive changes the last decade plus, I’d wager that the increased number of playoff admissions that accompanied that helped to skew the numbers in favor of offense.
Believe it or not, I’m a defensive guy by preference. I actually believe more strongly in having a consistent and solid defense (especially paired with a good run game) than I have belief in the reliability of having a good offense. But the way that the rules have changed the game have made that a much less sure bet than before, and have neutered the defenses when going up against flashy passing attacks like the Chiefs’ of today or the Patriots of old.
You can get by with 1 edge and a corner these days.
Six QBs in the top 12 and no defensive players. What a draft.
I was wrong usually the QB talk is always overhyped. This year we actually had all the QBs talked about picked by 12.
Yeah man it’s crazy lmao what are the odds
It’s because there was a run on them. Every draft, when there is a run on a position, you have to be prepared.
Oops no QB’s left for the Raiders…
Shocker! Said nobody ever
Amazingly it wasn’t the raiders that broke the draft this year
I can see Nix and Payton being a great fit, but this still feels rich.
Agreed. Payton will probably mitigate some of Nix’s concerns, but taking the 6th quarterback in the draft instead of the best defender or one of the best linemen or receivers, or even trading down to add to a sparse pick pool, seems like a less than optimal decision.
I was absolutely certain that this pick was coming. I’m much less certain of its success..
Nothing to see here. The Broncos have no real QB on their roster and thus just threw a pick against the wall to see if it would stick.
That’s what it feels like. If they stink next year, he’ll draft another QB or will already have been fired. He had to do something after that terrible FA class and the debacle with Wilson’s contract.
Enough with people saying this pick was a reach. It will be judged by how Nix plays, not where he was drafted.
If he’s a bust he at least has the fallback option of starting a U2 cover band.
guess we’ll see if it was Brees or payton
He’s compared to Tony Romo, who was the last QB Payton developed, but I don’t see it at all.