The first major surprise of the 2024 draft has arrived. With the eighth overall pick, the Falcons have drafted Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
This surprises on a number of levels, with Penix being ranked as the fifth- or sixth-best quarterback in the draft and after Atlanta signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180MM deal. But a Penix-to-Atlanta scenario emerged on the radar earlier this week. Still, this qualifies as a shock for an NFC South team that could have bolstered a now-Cousins-dependent roster with a best-player-available-type pick.
Still, Penix is a strong addition to the roster at No. 8 overall. Penix led the country in passing yards per game en route to becoming the Huskies’ all-time single-season passing leader with 4,641 yards while scoring 31 touchdowns through the air and four more on the ground in 2022. He followed that up with a 14-1 season that would take Washington to the National Championship game. Penix broke his own single-season record with 4,903 passing yards (thanks to two extra games) and passed for 36 touchdowns while rushing for three more. He led the FBS in passing yards, but even with his extra games, he also led the country in passing yards per game for the second season in a row.
This is one of the big shocks of the draft because many teams didn’t even have a first-round value on Penix. The consensus seems to be that Penix has first-round potential in his game, but he has to stay on the field in order to show it.
Penix would redshirt his freshman year with the Hoosiers, appearing in only three games before tearing his ACL. After returning from his injury, Penix entered his redshirt freshman year as the starter. Unfortunately, Penix’s season early after a sternoclavicular joint sprain and clavicle fracture on his non-throwing, right shoulder would keep him out for the back half of the season. Penix would return in 2020 as the starter once again before suffering a second torn ACL to end his third season. His time in Bloomington ended, once again, with his fourth season-ending injury, this one a dislocated joint in his throwing shoulder.
Instead of laying down to watch his football career die, Penix opted to hop into the transfer portal. Thanks to his utilized redshirt and the extra year of eligibility granted to players in school during the 2020 COVID-19 impacted season, the lefty passer still had two years of eligibility left, and finally, in Seattle, Penix was offered the opportunity to play for a contender. Penix became the starter at Washington and immediately led the Huskies to a winning season following their 4-8 2021 campaign.
The Falcons have decided to look past his extensive injury in favor of his 28 straight healthy games in Seattle. They also decided to look past the fact that he is about to turn 24 years old after six years in college.
The second shock of the situation comes from the fact that Cousins is set to run the Atlanta quarterbacks room for the next few years. Or, at least, it would appear that way. The Falcons gave the soon-to-be 36-year-old passer a $100MM practical guarantee, effectively tying the former Washington and Minnesota passer to the team through 2026. Other than the Packers, teams do not make a habit of extended QB developmental programs. The Falcons did not alert Cousins this pick was coming, per NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, setting up an interesting dynamic in their QB room to start the Raheem Morris era.
Atlanta dedicated significant cap space to acquiring Cousins just weeks before drafting his heir apparent in Penix. This will give Penix a good amount of time to grow and learn behind a veteran, a la Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love, but it seems like a wild swing to utilize such a high draft pick on a quarterback who was expected to be around a bit longer.
Also of note with the selection of Penix is that this now marks the first time since at least 1970 that no defensive players have been selected in the first eight picks. The closest was in 2021, when Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn was selected eighth overall.
Ely Allen contributed to this post.
Oh, Falcons… someday you’ll get it right. Maybe.
I’ve been paying attention to the draft for years, seen plenty of awful picks, I can’t remember the last time a pick shocked me like this, I like Penix as a prospect but he will be 28 when Cousins contract runs out, how could they waste a top ten pick when they should be turning a corner
Ha ha falcons friends!
What on earth? Aside from the fact that I don’t think he’s a top ten caliber prospect and the Falcons’ other needs, dude might be 27 before that starting job comes open.
I guess that Steve Bartkowski turned down their offer first…
One of the most head-scratching moves I’ve ever seen. Over-reaching for a QB when you are a mediocre team with myriad issues who just signed a super expensive free agent QB a few months ago. Just wow.
I double checked to see is this Atlanta picking now?
It’s not a mediocre team, and they signed a 35-year-old QB coming off an Achilles tear. People kill me saying QB is the most important player in sport but then neglecting the position until the bottom falls out and you’re backed into a corner.
I can’t argue this point, well said….I don’t like the pick at all specifically because of the draft spot but rather 2 QBs than no QBs like last 2 seasons I guess
If they had a QB this past year, they would have been one of the top teams in the NFC. Go back and see how many games bad QB play flat out lost for them week in, week out. Ritter was a human turnover machine.
You just have to wonder about all the damn injuries..
“It’s not a mediocre team”
I am basing this on the fact that they went 7-10 with the 18th ranked defense and the 26th ranked offense only because they had such bad QB play. They were not terrible last year and even a decent QB would have had them in the playoffs (because despite their low ppg, they do have offensive weapons).
I also get what you’re saying about Cousins and his injury, but Cousins was already an immobile pocket passer. An Achilles tear, while serious, is not as bad for him. I expect him to be his old self out there.
Go watch the games, not stats. Most of the season, it was a top ten defensive unit, and Ritter would throw or fumble games away weekly. Not to mention that that 50 points or whatever they gave up the last week when the players were making business decisions for the off-season skewed a lot of their counting stats. Signing Cousins was the right move, and making sure you have a contingency plan for the end of his career was the right move too. I thought in the back of my head this would be a great move, but I never thought they would do it.
They’ve made changes from a 7-10 team. Probably more like 10-7 now.
Roger Staubach was 29 when he first became the regular starter for the Cowboys in 1971. His career worked out ok.
Staubach was drafted in the 10th round 60 years ago. There wasn’t a salary cap or free agency when Staubach played either.
Weird move…You are going to pay him large top 10 money to not play for like 3 seasons. He will have the weapons though with London, Pitts, and Bijan but they could have moved back.
So you think you get good QBs on the cheap? That’s a good problem to have if he develops into a franchise QB behind a guy who can absolutely win them the division next year. They should have won it this year if not for historically bad QB play. At his cap number now, Cousins is a bargain in the $55 mil a year, soon to be $60 mil a year QB rooms in the NFL in the meantime.
Kirk Cousins calling Aaron Rodgers for advice how to handle your franchise taking a QB in the first round instead of help.
Idk how you take Penix at 8 instead of trading back. Should have taken defensive help. Division is wide open.
He can call Brett Favre too.
This is just very confusing
If BB went there, no way they would have taken this leap. What a waste of a top 10 pick
I don’t understand this move at all. It literally makes zero sense.
Amazing pick I’m such a happy falcons fan tonight!!!
It appears the fan base is just as backwards as the front office.
Smh….if the Falcons create a QB surplus in 2 years and cash in then this is a great move. Otherwise, how do we draft the oldest most injury prone QB of the bunch?! Granted none of these QBs were falling until the 2nd round this year, but man this is a reach.
He hasn’t missed a game the last 2 years. He also went H2H with Caleb Williams and Bo Nix 3 times. Penix won all 3 games.
Facts!! @TMQ
2 major knee injuries won’t go missed by NFL players. He has a huge target on his leg…I’m not against Pennix, but that’s a high pick for a backup. This will get the Jordan Love comparison to death over the next few years but the Packers traded back into the 1st to take him at what, #30 or something? Not the same.
This is either the dumbest waste of a top 10 pick or the biggest waste of $ ever in paying a qb. Lose lose type of feeling after the pick for falcons fans.
It’s both. I’m a Viking fan and Kirk can play and he can be deadly. Unfortunately he can also be deadly to his own team. Doesn’t take chances, needs plays to develop as they are designed, and never fails to fail when it matters.
So let’s get some insurance with a guy that will bust..
So he sits for at least 2 years and will be 26 by then. Interesting. Raiders calling the Falcons about Cousins
Aaron Rodgers was 26 when he took over Green Bay permanently. Hmm. Doesn’t sound like a bad idea from that context. Also, if he’s ready, they will absolutely cut bait with Cousins before the two years is up. Did we not just have teams needing a starting QB after all of those QB injuries last year? Not to mention is everyone forgetting the tampering charge? They very well could be docked a first round pick if Goodell is being petty.
If Cousins is only there for one season then they will have paid $100M for one year of Cousins. Pretty steep. Rodgers also say for 3 years, and the contract austen was different then, also the amount of money QBs are making these days is easy more than they were 15+ years ago
He’ll be there two years like his contract says. It’s a bargain at $45 mil the next two years in a league with $60 mil soon setting the market. No different from what the Lions have going on with Goff under his deal from the Rams that is half of todays’ market.
Drafting an older, injury prone prospect to back up your old QB coming off an Achilles with $90 mil guaranteed the next two years. Falcons gonna falcon
He isn’t that old and hasn’t missed a game in the last 2 seasons. He also beat all of the other too 5 QBs in this draft class he played against.
I like Penix, but…man, if Atlanta really wanted him, doesn’t it feel like they could have traded down and still nabbed him?
No. Minnesota and the Raiders were going to take him. I think Kiper said on the draft coverage that the Raiders were trying to trade into the Falcon pick when they got rebuffed, and the Falcons took him instead.
No it’s pretty clear there was no way. Vikings gave up 3 picks to move up in front of their own spot, then Broncos take Bo Nix….6 QBs were going high no matter what it seems
Smart move.
This is a HORRIBLE pick. No dig on Penix but who spends 100 mil on a QB then spends a top 10 pick on a QB.
yeah, makes more sense to let the bottom fall out after Cousins, finish 3-14, and get fired.
Cousins has given zero indication that he is falling off, quite the opposite honestly. If the team was worried about the injury they shouldn’t have signed him to begin with. The 8th pick probably could have brought back an additional 1st next year and picks this year to fall back and the Falcons could have stocked up on more talent.
QB is easily the most important and most valuable position in the NFL. I find it hilarious people are acting like having 2 good NFL QB’s is a negative. If he plays to his potential you could trade him for multiple 1st round picks. Or if Cousins has a good year they could easily trade him for a 1st and change.
Having two good QBs is a good thing. No one is debating that. But signing one to a four year, $180 million* contract and then using the #8 overall pick to draft another QB (after three others had been taken) is a very strange move. Especially since they have plenty of other holes to fill.
*$100 million guaranteed, can get out after year two with a $25 million cap hit or after year three with $12.5 million
Yep. Sam freaking Bradford got a team a first rounder once upon a time. People are like oh my God. They spent a pick on the most important position in the league. I’m sure Dallas Turner would have taken them to the next level instead, lol. If Penix is a stud like it seems like most coaches think he’s going to be, they’re going to look like geniuses. The funny thing is that the teams who do this rarely miss (Rodgers understudy to Favre, Love understudy to Rodgers, Mahomes understudy to Smith, even going back to Steve Young brought in as understudy to Montana), yet teams rarely do it. It’s mind boggling that with so many success stories, few teams do this for fear of hurting feelings. You know what is truly a 50:50 shot though (or probably less)? Bombing out and drafting a young guy and throwing him in the deep end on a bad team.
Penix was the guy flying under the radar who is going to be very good, probably better than the guys taken in the top three. Working in the Shanahan/McVay system with a guy who can flat out sling the ball and hits his guys in stride. It reminds me of how all of the QB gurus were in on Pat Mahomes, but the talking heads had no clue. The Vikings were going to take him too.
It’s a future play pick that was taken higher than normal due to the run on QBs. Trading down would’ve come with risks on not getting him or anyone. Like others have said, it rings familiar as it is similar to the GB move which has paid off.
Secondarily, the Falcons are going to lose draft picks in the Cousins tampering investigation. That will limit their ability to make a like move next year. The planets aligned for this move this year and they felt they had to take it. I don’t live it but I understand it.
2021- Kyle Pitts TE #4 overall
2022- Drake London WR #8 overall
2023- Bijon Robinson RB #8 overall
2024- Michael Penix QB #8 overall
2025- offensive skill player top ten pick
I genuinely like each of those guys but at some point someone in the draft room has to stand up and say “maybe we need lineman and a defense”.
good chance wont start a game till he’s 28
Guess the Falcons like the Penix.
The structure of the Cousins deal is that it is essence a two year deal with guaranteed money in the front end of the contract. There will be $32 million of cap savings if they cut him on 6/1/26. Then a prepared Penix steps in. Meanwhile Atlanta has a quality back up at an affordable price for a couple years then a qb on a rookie contract for three years