In a recent article for The Washington Post, NFL insider and analyst Jason La Canfora provided his projection for how the first-round quarterbacks may play out in this year’s draft. After the seemingly obvious prediction of USC quarterback Caleb Williams to Chicago, La Canfora declared a somewhat more surprising projection: national championship-winning Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy going second overall to the Commanders. 
The first reasoning that La Canfora points to is the betting markets. Though betting odds are fickle and often change at the slightest whims, they can quite often predict the likeliest outcome, and right now, McCarthy’s odds of getting picked right after Williams are skyrocketing. Secondarily, La Canfora points to an evaluator who compared McCarthy to “another (Brock) Purdy.”
New Commanders general manager Adam Peters comes from the 49ers front office that selected Purdy as the last pick of the draft two years ago. If McCarthy is demonstrating the attributes that drew Peters and company to Purdy, that also helps the Michigan passer’s chances of heading to Washington. Unfortunately, that same brain trust in San Francisco was responsible for the trade to move up for Trey Lance, so Peters’ history with picking quarterbacks may be hit or miss.
La Canfora also claims that the Giants are highest on McCarthy over the other remaining quarterbacks after Williams is drafted, but if he goes to the Commanders, as La Canfora predicts, New York will have to settle for another option: LSU Heisman-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels.
La Canfora doesn’t take it as fact that Daniels is headed to New York, though. He reports that the Raiders, who currently hold the 13th overall pick of the first round, “badly want to move up” to land Daniels. This rumor makes a ton of sense when you consider that Las Vegas’ head coach Antonio Pierce got an up-close look at Daniels when the two were together at Arizona State for several years. The team isn’t very well-positioned to make the move, but according to two general managers in the league, the Raiders are making the effort, nonetheless.
Aside from those two bigger predictions, La Canfora’s projection is fairly in-line with what we’ve been seeing. He predicts that the first four picks will be quarterbacks (Williams to Chicago, McCarthy to Washington, Daniels to New York, and North Carolina passer Drake Maye to Minnesota [via trade]), he sees the Raiders settling for Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. if they can’t trade up, and he sees Oregon quarterback Bo Nix becoming the fifth first-round quarterback of the draft thanks to the Ravens trading down so that the Broncos can select him 30th overall.
This all continues a wild runup to what is certainly shaping up to be an unpredictable 2024 NFL Draft. A top-heavy quarterback draft class has provided pundits and analysts alike with myriad predictions for how everything will play out. With a little over three weeks until the all-important date, the sequence of events following the No. 1 overall pick is unclear as ever.
Blows my mind McCarthy is going to go top 6
I still have my doubts about this happening. This feels more like the usual media picking someone to overhype and trying to get more viewers through said hype. I don’t think many gm’s, certainly none of the smart ones, will have more than a 2nd round grade (more likely 3rd round grade) on any of McCarthy, Nix, or Pennix. Most I could see happening is something similar to Lamar Jackson getting drafted where someone likes a guy well enough to trade up into the end of the 1st round to get that extra option year down the road.
I agree. McCarthy was maybe a very low 1st rounder/high 2nd rounder in the pre-season mocks. Has he done that much at Michigan for folks to think he is top-three material?
I think writers and mockers are just reading and copying what other writers and mockers have said. I’d love to see Maye drop to 4th so that my Raiders can trade up without coughing up most of their draft, but I don’t see that happening.
Would not shock me at all if Harbaugh does something crazy like trade Justin Herbert and brings in McCarthy as his QB after their time together at Michigan.
99.99999999% will never happen but what a turn of events that would be and crazy turn of events.
Just send Herbert to commanders , they have the need and cap space . Make up for passing him up for Chase Young
Zero chance Patriots are trading pick number 3 away, if Maye/Daniels are there they are going to take him. Getting tired of mocks predicting they are going to trade with the vikings
Denver needs to trade back and pick up both Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr that would be great way to utilize the extra pick they’ll get for trading back
If the top 4 QB’s actually go 1-4, then there’s a good chance the other QB desperate teams will trade up & reach for one just to keep the competition from getting them. It’ll be just like 2011, when Jake Locker became a top 10 pick, and then Christian Ponder went 12th overall when some boards gave him a third round grade.
Jason LaCanfora: “My reputation and credibility as an NFL analyst is based on my ability to watch betting trends”. LOL.
JJ not going #2 to Skins
Seems like it’s almost certain the draft is going to start with a run on qb’s and a couple wideouts are probably going top 10. Teams picking 10-18 should have a lot of good corners and offensive tackles available.
I think 6 QB’s will go 1st round, 4 in top 10.
I think JJ McCarthy is going to start his career a lot like Trevor Lawrence that being said the broncos should trade back pick up Bo Nix and Michael Penix jr either the other pick they receive when they trade back