First-round quarterbacks almost never sit throughout their rookie seasons. The Packers have, of course, executed two such plans since 2005; select other teams have also kept Round 1 QB prospects on the bench — just not many.
The Chiefs did not turn to Patrick Mahomes until Week 17 of his rookie year, and that came in a meaningless season-ender while Alex Smith prepared for a wild-card game. In the rookie-scale contract era (2011-present), some of the other players not to be called upon as non-injury-driven starters as rookies — Trey Lance, Paxton Lynch, Jake Locker — did not pan out. Teams, though, regularly pay lip service to the old-school watch-and-learn method — one that benefited Mahomes in the 2010s and Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer and Chad Pennington in the aughts.
Selecting Jaxson Dart 25th overall (via trade-up with the Texans), the Giants are in an interesting spot. Their refusal to draft Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix — after a Drake Maye-based trade-up effort failed — last year preceded a 3-14 season and a dire QB need forming. The team settled on Russell Wilson as its bridge option, as plans to draft one of the scrutinized 2025 passers — after a Cam Ward-based trade-up failed — were well known. The Giants landed on Dart, the second QB drafted, thanks to a push from Brian Daboll.
Daboll has proclaimed Wilson as his starter at multiple junctures, but the potential Hall of Fame quarterback is now on his fourth team in five years. The 36-year-old option also readies to face what is, based on last year’s win totals at least, the NFL’s toughest schedule. The Giants would buck a well-established trend by letting Wilson play ahead of Dart all season, but Fox Sports’ Ralph Vacchiano indicates the team would be “completely fine” if this happened.
Of course, this reality would likely require Wilson to keep the Giants in the playoff hunt. It would be a bit of a stretch to expect the Giants, whose regime is on the hot seat thanks to backing Dave Gettleman‘s preferred QB option (Daniel Jones), to keep Dart benched for too long if it becomes clear they are not a viable playoff contender. How the team handles Wilson and Jameis Winston at the trade deadline in this scenario would be worth monitoring closely as well. Currently, Dart is stationed behind both on New York’s depth chart.
Gettleman had said in 2019 the Giants were OK with the Chiefs model, but the team benched Eli Manning for Jones two games in. Given Wilson’s journey since a 2022 blockbuster trade ended his Seattle stay, it will be a tough ask to prevent Daboll from promoting a player he essentially handpicked.
As detailed in our Giants Offseason In Review piece, the Daboll-Joe Schoen duo not making their own QB investment from 2022-24 would stand to influence Dart’s timeline — especially if Wilson struggles against a tough schedule early. Though, it will be on the Giants’ staff to determine how close the Ole Miss prospect is to game-ready.
Wilson played effectively for the Steelers last season, following a 26-touchdown pass/eight-interception 2023 bounce-back year in Denver. But neither team wanted him back. The Broncos paid a record-smashing dead money sum to ditch Wilson, and the Steelers preferred a few options — Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Justin Fields — over their primary 2024 starter.
This came after a difficult finish to Pittsburgh’s schedule brought five straight losses to close a season that began 10-3. Wilson ranked 21st in QBR in Pittsburgh and 22nd in Denver over the past two seasons; that would be an upgrade for New York, but calls for Dart figure to be loud if the Giants start slowly.
Weird to take a first round quarterback who definitely needs to sit and develop when the coach developing him is so likely to be fired before the player’s second season, but planning on Dart sitting is the correct move. He’s coming from an offense that doesn’t translate to the NFL at all. He’s going to need to learn a different way of operating.
Say what you want about Brian Daboll as a HC, but he’s a smart football man. People will say the right move here is to start Dart, but I’m Mara, last thing I want is a HC to panic and potentially mess up the development of my long-term QB. Suffice to say, if Daboll is the man for the job THIS year, this is a good mark in his favor for the sake of keeping the job.
Why would players want to go out and give it their all when the coach clearly isn’t cutting it? There are more folks to be concerned with than just Jaxson Dart.
The Giants drafted Dart only because he went to the same school as Eli. They would’ve been better off building around the ground game and defense while finding a QB on the scrap heap.
And all because they paid Daniel Jones instead of Barkley.
They’re saying this, but given their roster’s talent level and their brutal schedule, Dart should get plenty of playing time this season. I suspect it’ll be something similar to Kurt Warner and Eli (though the Giants actually won a few games under Warner), where Russell Wilson will play 5+ games before Dart takes over. Giants could very well be winless in their first handful of games, so the pressure to play Dart will be high.
I could be way off though. I am also of the opinion that Daboll and Schoen’s seats are not as hot as people think. If they win 6+ games and at least are competitive in their losses, I think both will be back next year.
I can’t see Dart playing at all with Wilson and Winston around.
Dart was taken in such a bad spot long-term. He’s either going to sit (likely) for the majority of the season and be expected to ball out enough over a small sample size to prevent a (likely) new GM/HC combo from taking a QB high in the draft next year … or he needs Russell Wilson to play well enough to save Dabbol’s job. Yikes.
If Russ wets bed first few games dart is in.
There are only 2 likely scenarios:
1. Schoen and Daboll take a flyer on Dart hoping he can perform a miracle and save their jobs
Or
2. They try to out tank the Browns and hope they can get hired elsewhere by another needy team.
Or dart shines in preseason and Russ starts 1-3 or 0-4 and he loses his job to dart the second QB taken in the draft who giants moved into first to get?
I don’t think he even has to play particularly bad (and just slinging it in Nabers’s direction might puff up his numbers). I think the pressure will just get ratcheted up as the losses pile up.
Their schedule starts: at Washington, at Dallas, Kansas City, Chargers, at New Orleans, Philly, at Denver, at Philly. They could so easily be 2-6 or worse. Doubt Daboll will keep running Wilson out there at that point. If you look at their full season schedule, there’s maybe two or three games where they’d be the favorite. Going to be a brutal year.
But if Russ wins 4/6 he’s safe. I think it’s basically this is literally Russ’s job to lose. Dart is projected QB2 and Winston is a fail safe/emergency lever in case both wet the bed
Very true. If Russ can win some games, he’ll be sitting pretty. But I’m a Giants fan and the last decade or so has me negative about their chances, lol.
Hoping Wilson-to-Nabers can be exciting but the offensive line has to be good, so the running game can help them. Skattebo will be fun for the fans.
willing to?
They better. This young man has a high ceiling but at this time is seriously unrefined and not ready for the NFL. Thrusting him into a starting gig in year one would only risk injury. The learning will be done from the sideline and the film room for this season.