Texas quarterback and potential top 2026/2027 draft prospect Arch Manning has not lived up to the hype in his first season as the Longhorns’ starting quarterback.
Among qualified FBS quarterbacks, Manning ranks 42nd in yards per attempt (8.4), 62nd in yards per game (222), and 88th in completion percentage (61.3%). Those numbers fall far short of the expectations for the preseason Heisman favorite, and it is impacting his perception at the NFL level.
Manning’s particularly rough performance against Ohio State in the season opener has created “real concern about him within the scouting world,” per Bruce Feldman of The Athletic. The 21-year-old has been scrutinized for his entire playing career due to his family tree with much of the college football world talking about his potential for the last two years.
“He’s talented, but he needs to get rid of what’s going on with him,” said one of Feldman’s NFL sources. “I don’t know if it’s all mental, but I do know he’s dealing with a level of pressure that nobody else we’re talking about is dealing with.”
This is also Manning’s first year as a full-time starter, and that is not the only change to the Longhorns offense. They have several new starters, including four along the offensive line, so some early missteps are understandable, but NFL scouts will be looking for Manning to bounce back in a big way for the rest of the year.
Unsurprisingly, Feldman’s sources within the Texas program are more optimistic about Manning, particularly his athleticism and natural throwing ability. They may also be more confident that he will stay in college for four years. Many suspect that will be the case because his uncles Peyton and Eli Manning did the same thing on the advice of their father (Arch’s grandfather and namesake) Archie Manning. Sticking around in Austin in 2026 will give Arch Manning more time to develop in college and potentially recover from a disappointing 2025 season before entering the 2027 draft.
I have agree about Arch not looking good at all…
He’s got this side arm throwing motion he uses way too much and on crucial downs…it’s never accurate and I have no idea why he does it to be honest…
Anyway I’m sure most of it is mental and that side arm throwing motion can get fixed…
I do expect to see him improve as the year goes on and I also expect him to stay for his 2026 season in Texas…
He most definitely needs to stay for ’26.
Quinn Ewers didn’t end up being good either. Seems like Texas always has the fastest WRs at the combine, but none of them are studs at the next level. Probably because the don’t run a full route tree. Perhaps Austin just isn’t a good place for QBs to become NFL QBs.
All Ewers needs to do is lob the ball over the arms and hands of the DL and poof he’s got a completion.
Eventually, he might need to play like a 1st round pick to be one. Guy sat for a few years and then has since played badly. That’s not a 1st rounder.
There’s the state of the sports world in a microcosm… The guy is four games into his career as a college starter and half the universe is willing to write him off as a bust…
This is after he played 2 games and was anointed the clear cut #1 pick and teams were all tanking for him. Stop listening to the media. They just need shiz to talk about.
That’s because there’s very few actual analysts left in sports media these days.
This I agree with. Just talking heads. The View but for football.
Having a ‘name’ doesn’t make anyone a NFL quality player.
There many many examples of name failures to reach heights forecast by writers and reporters that place recognition of family as a ‘athletic attribute worthy of accolades’.
Hard efforts, intense study, time at position, acceptance of coaching and ignoring bs ‘pats on the back’ makes more ‘players’ than a recognizable name.
It’s almost like 21 year old college kids might feel/succumb to pressure a bit more than adults.
Anyone willing to write him off as a bust already is gonna have some serious egg face. Is he gonna be Peyton? No. Can he be Eli? I think so and regardless of what you think of him, that guy won 2 super bowls and is a borderline HOF guy.
It’s almost as if NIL only increased pressure and ruthlessness for a generation that already complains of increased social pressure in an internet age…
My opinion on that aside, the one positive of this is that the stars (or, rather, big names) don’t need necessarily to rush for the NFL for money. Arch has plenty of it to begin with, but he can stay comfortably in Austin or wherever if he wants to and improve his game. I’ve personally come to the conclusion that many others here have-that he can be much too indecisive and seems to try too hard to make the perfect play. In his case, perhaps the pressure simply from sitting was too much. Right now, I’d say I’m not concerned. The best chance that Manning could have to get comfortable would be for the media attention to die down.
The obvious concern for him now is whether the mental pressure of living up to expectations will conquer him, but the advantage of not being the savior that he was expected to be is that perhaps the media as a whole will drift to other players and give him a better chance to develop at his own pace. We’ll see if that’s all he needs, but my valuation is that it’s too early to come to a conclusion a year before the player will even be drafted.
For all of these reasons, maybe Texas was a poor choice. Eli got plenty of attention in college, but not nearly as much as he would have gotten if he had chosen a higher profile program. Maybe Arch would have been better off at Kentucky or Virginia, etc.
Very fair point. If everything is bigger in Texas, the spotlight doesn’t figure to be exempt.
With the NIL he can easily move to another college
With the hype around him (and his last name) I don’t think it really would matter where he plays.
He’ll be fine and he’s not coming out this year anyway.
I think that’s the most important thing. He’ll have two years of experience before even coming out.
From what I’ve seen of him this season, he looks like he just needs experience.
A bit hesitant with decision making. When he came in the game last season here and there, it appeared the plays were pre-designed. No decision making required. I think it’s unlikely he comes out in the next draft anyway.
Nussmeier and Klubnik were supposed to be the ones to watch this season and so far have both looked very average.
I think Penn State has a doozy in big 6-5 Drew Allar, Miami’s 6-4 Carson Beck, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, if he wants to come out from his junior year, 6-4 Sawyer Robertson from Baylor are all way ahead of Manning at this point.
Allar may not be, as he’s a pretty big disappointment himself, but we’ve seen some really good quarterback play from non-top schools. Looking at just the individual QB play, Southern Cal, Indiana, Virginia, Baylor, Illinois, Cincinatti, and Missouri have all gotten top tier play from their QBs and probably won’t make the playoffs. We can’t forget the underdogs of the year in Vanderbilt, either. Pavia isn’t perfect, and just lost a tight game that truly was hard fought for both teams, but he’s played much better than simply being an inspirational leader.
Amongst the teams with a chance, Ty Simpson from Alabama has been on fire lately. He looks great. John Mateer from Oklahoma looks good. You’ve mentioned Beck from Miami. Sayin from Ohio State looks fine, but he’s not really asked to do too much, so it’s hard to extrapolate. Stockton from Georgia probably needs another year, in my opinion. Moore from Oregon has been great. I’d put all of these guys, plus non-playoff schools above (and LSU’s Nussmeier, who I still think is promising), ahead of Allar and Manning.
There were plenty of scouts that said he was. 3 star and not a 5 star coming out. They said he got the extra stars because of his name.
The media does not know how to scout and they hype up names.
See last year’s draft for recent evidence.
The media’s job is to sell stories. You do that with names like Sanders or Manning. It is the job of teams to scout talent.
This has been going on for years.
The media is especially notorious for hyping up ACC and Pac12 players but they also fall in love with certain names.
Cam Ward is turning out to be a number one pick a big bust.
I said at draft time that he was clearly a project QB. The arm strength and scrambling ability is undeniable but this is his first real taste of playing against legit defenses on a consistent basis.
QBs need at least three years to see what they can be, and they need not just support but also to be held accountable.
He’s got the physical tools and of course got the best coaching/training money could buy, but so far he isn’t showing an aptitude for the game.
I’m going to risk a forum uprising by suggesting the NFL doesn’t need more Mannings, more international games or more Taylor Swifts 🙂
Give it a rest. He’s 21. Geez. 2 years from now he’ll have experience and a stronger body. As long as he doesn’t end up with the browns or jets he has a future in the nfl.
Browns won’t draft him….they should draft their QB next year
That certainly doesn’t mean they won’t draft one or two more QBs in the 2027 draft…
I think Dillon Gabriel is going to be a fine QB for the Browns.
This kid has a long way to go before he’s NFL ready
2027 first overall pick for the Jets
My guess….New Orleans takes him
Not 2027
This kid has had the spotlight since high school. Everything he does has been under a microscope.
If he didn’t start cracking even slightly he wouldn’t be human
Needs to transfer to a better football program. Texas is really bad at developing QBs
You know I can’t seem to remember when the Longhorns have ever developed a pure passer in its recent history. I think Bret Stafford for Texas in 1986/87 was the last, but you have to go way back to 1963 to find another in Tommy Wade who played professionally mainly as a backup in the NFL.
How quickly they forget Colt McCoy!
I am a big fan of McCoy, but to be fair to Coal tender, I wouldn’t consider him a pure passer. Same with Vince Young.
Of course he hasn’t looked amazing. He’s a first year starter on a team with high expectations that lost most of their most important offensive (and many defensive) players, and he’s been hyped as a surefire not just lottery pick but first overall pick for years for no reason.
Let these kids develop and grow and SHOW you what they are rather than anointing them so early.
He couldn’t beat St Charles Catholic. We knew he wasn’t good
Manning is not ready for prime time in the NFL. I hope he doesn’t come out in the 2026 draft. Something about his mechanics bothers me. I worry that Cowboys Jerry Jones is keeping an eye out on him as a future replacement for Prescott. There are a number of other top quality QB’s in this years college crop that could be an understudy to Prescott.
name the last great pro quarterback who started a season for Texas ?