Offseason rule changes are regularly dictated by which way the league office leans on a particular issue. The 2026 offseason may bring legitimate momentum to changing the onside kick.
NFL executive VP Troy Vincent said it may be time for a true discussion about altering the play, with CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones noting the onside kick’s increasingly anticlimactic status has disappointed the league. This language once applied to the extra point, and it was then moved back to the 15-yard line. That has brought far more compelling sequences compared to the setup still used at the college level.
Vincent indicated it may be time to revisit a fourth-and-15 alternative here. A frequent offseason topic, the fourth-and-15 alternative has not gained serious traction in the recent past. The league tabled the matter this offseason. Back in 2020, however, some support for the fourth-and-15 play existed. Vincent’s comments are certainly notable from that angle, and the onside kick recovery data has shifted toward the play being a near-foregone conclusion since the seminal rule change banned running starts from kickoff coverage units.
Only one onside kick (out of 21 tries) produced a recovery this season. In 2024, teams trying them were 3-for-50. Prior to the dynamic kickoff’s 2024 implementation — which removed surprise onside efforts and limited declared onside tries to fourth quarters — success rate fell below 8% four times from 2018-23 (per Odds Shark). The NFL banned running starts on kickoffs, as a safety measure, in 2018. From 2010-17, non-surprise onside kicks were recovered by kicking teams 13.2% of the time.
The league will be highly unlikely to reintroduce running starts on onside plays, and the dynamic kickoff looks here to stay. Kick returns are up significantly, thanks to the league moving the touchback line from the 30 to the 35 this offseason, so the fourth-and-15 alternative — or something comparable — will be a storyline to monitor going into the spring meetings, where rule changes launch.
It can be argued teams should not have a play that gives them a reasonable chance of stealing a possession, but the running-start era did provide better odds at recoveries. Fourth-and-15 plays would favor those with high-end passing attacks, but they would undoubtedly inject more drama into late-game sequences.
From changing the extra point to adding a seventh playoff team per conference to adjusting the late-season schedule to ensure Christmas Day games occur, the league acts frequently to make viewer-friendly changes. It appears momentum exists for a significant change on special teams, one that will make the quarterback position slightly more valuable than it already is.
Onside kicks needs to be changed, but how? I think that the onside kick should be moved down field by 10-15 yards. Then, the teams would know that doing it would not be as big a problem if not made. More of them would happen. The teams would work on that play if it was undertaken more.
Agreed, plus 4th and 15 is too short in today’s game. Make it 4th and 20-25 from your own 20, and it’ll happen as rarely as it did under the previous rules.
Or just revoke the announcement requirement and go back to occasional surprise onside kicks. Outside of the player safety argument, I never understood this latest change.
How? The dynamic kickoff makes it pretty much impossible.
Remove the declaration requirement, and the time/lead restrictions. Everyone (but the NFL, apparently) knew that those would kill the onside kick. The argument I suppose is that it would affect the difficulty too much, but having insides available at any time makes them something that teams have to defend against. It makes it more compelling, and makes the onside an actual factor again.
With the current setup, teams are pretty much just hoping for the opposing hands team to botch a recovery to have a chance at getting the ball back for themselves.
There’s no surprise because the two plays have completely different setups.
Anyone remember XFL’s first go around their version of the coin toss was putting the ball on the 50 and one guy from each team would line up on opposite 30’s. Whoever got the ball won.
The onside kick is 100% bush league so I would just ban it completely. I cringe every time I see one because they all look like a badly orchestrated Chinese fire drill.
The problem with making an onside kick easier is it gives crappy teams more opportunities to score when they don’t deserve to win, which will encourage good teams to play harder to get a larger lead. Both actions increase the risk of player injuries
With the defense Dallas has, teams would just take the 4th and 15 every time.
I’m dissatisfied with the new kickoff format, the cheesy PI calls that favor the offense, inconsistent roughing the passer calls, Denver winning games, Jerry Kones being interviewed, non winning lottery tickets and being charged to withdraw my money at various atms.
But doesn’t mean any corrective action will be implemented to placate my complaints!!!
Stupidest rule change since the ghost runner on 2nd in the 10th inning.
I love the ghost runner. One of the only good things Manfred has actually done in my opinion. Only change I would do is runner on first in the 10th, and then second the rest of the way.
The ghost runner is gross and should be repealed for sure. Shows how much MLB doesn’t care about the regular season.
Xmas Day games are not viewer-friendly when they fall on Tuesday, Wednesday, maybe even Thursday.
Radically altering the kickoff rules so onside kicks are seldom successful? Not viewer-friendly as well.
I’m thinking the same people that came up with this idea, are the same one that were heading the Super Bowl halftime show? Pathetic!
Your name is ironic for the comment you made.
Your ignorance is astounding
Don’t the old way we’re atheist you can load up more guys to 1 side
If the league botkins want to do something meaningful, they should change the stars in the NFL logo to $.
Wow, I can’t believe they want something changed after they ruined it.
No way in Hades do I want to see 4-15 when pass interference and holding are randomly, inconsistently called. Ripe for abuse with all the rules slanted towards the offense.
…which might be positives in the eyes of the league office.