The Dolphins demoted Tua Tagovailoa to the third-string spot on their depth chart this week, potentially signaling an end to the inconsistent passer’s six-year Miami tenure. As for the coach that pulled the trigger on this move, no change is expected.
Although the Dolphins lost to the Steelers and are now eliminated from the playoffs, Mike McDaniel being allowed to make the Tagovailoa-for-Quinn Ewers switch may be telling. The belief in Miami is that McDaniel will stay for a fifth season, CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones notes.
Prospective HC and GM candidates informed Jones their expectation is McDaniel will be retained and have a chance to spark a turnaround. One source told Jones a belief in the building is McDaniel was given a “tough hand” this year, and unlike the since-ousted Chris Grier, the sideline leader will be given a chance to bounce back in 2026. This is not the first time we have heard McDaniel was likely to be kept, but this coming after the Tua news certainly carries more weight.
It may be tough to see McDaniel’s job being easier next year, assuming he stays. If the team follows through with a Tagovailoa release, it would bring a staggering $99.2MM dead money hit. That dead cap number would be split between 2026 and ’27, continuing a line of pricey Dolphins post-June 1 moves, but will significantly hinder Miami’s roster-building capabilities regardless of where the 2026 salary cap settles.
Only the Broncos have incurred a dead money hit north of $60MM, via their $84.6MM Russell Wilson release. The Dolphins have cut Byron Jones and Xavien Howard using the post-June 1 transaction (2023, 2024), and they needed to wait until after June 1 this year to trade Jalen Ramsey. Even in doing that, Ramsey set a defender record by accounting for $35.86MM in dead cap (spread between 2025 and ’26).
With Ramsey dead money at nearly $21MM next year, having Tagovailoa’s seismic sum hit the cap will make for a difficult task as McDaniel and a to-be-determined GM attempt to recover. Tagovailoa played the lead on-field role in the Dolphins securing back-to-back playoff berths for the first time since its 1997-2001 run of postseason appearances, but McDaniel appears set to outlast the QB in South Beach.
As we look set to see plenty of defense-based coaches generate HC interest on the upcoming carousel, keeping McDaniel makes sense due to his offensive acumen. McDaniel played the lead role in turning Tagovailoa around, with Tyreek Hill being a rather notable part of that effort, and did memorably test the Bills — in a three-point wild-card loss — with third-stringer Skylar Thompson at the helm. It appears McDaniel will be given a chance to see if he can develop another quarterback. It remains a mystery, barring a surprising Ewers stretch-run effort that convinces the Dolphins to stand down at the position, who that player will be if Tua is indeed jettisoned.
No team will be willing to pay the full Tagovailoa freight in a trade, per Jones. If Miami is to move on, it will need to eat a sizable portion of the QB’s $54MM 2026 guarantee in a trade. If Tagovailoa is on the Dolphins’ roster by March 13, a $3MM 2027 guarantee vests as well. Any action on the contract should naturally be expected before that date.
The prospect of McDaniel being paired with a new GM injects risk regarding timelines. Teams have begun to steer their operations toward HC-GM alignment in recent years, though the Bears are having success despite Ryan Poles and Ben Johnson arriving at different points. The Jaguars and Raiders fired their GMs (Trent Baalke, Tom Telesco) for alignment purposes. It will be interesting to see how the Dolphins’ GM search unfolds with the to-be-determined exec being tied to McDaniel.
It will be considered likely the Dolphins hire an outside GM, but Jones adds interim boss Champ Kelly will receive an interview. Kelly was close to earning the Raiders’ GM job in 2024, only to be kept in the assistant GM role once Telesco was hired, and is respected around the league. Kelly interviewed for the Jags’ job this past offseason and met about the Panthers’ vacancy in 2024. He has been the Dolphins’ interim leader since Grier’s Halloween exit. Kelly oversaw the trade of Jaelan Phillips for a third-round pick; the veteran exec also kept Jaylen Waddle at the deadline, hiking up the Bills’ price due to their AFC East status.
The Dolphins are also considering splitting up their GM role in a sense. They have given SVP of football and business administration Brandon Shore more responsibility post-Grier, SI.com’s Albert Breer notes. Both Breer and Jones point to a potential setup in which McDaniel, Shore and a GM report to Stephen Ross, with Breer going as far as to say there is a “good chance” this setup will be in place in Miami come 2026.
Serving as the Dolphins’ cap chief, Shore has been with the franchise for 16 years. He has been in his current role since 2021. Being a key part of the Tagovailoa extension (four years, $212.4MM) the team now appears interested in escaping, Shore making a move up the ladder after that development certainly shows his sturdy organizational standing. Shore’s presence could well be a factor in the Dolphins’ GM pursuit as well, should the Dolphins truly be interested in an arrangement in which two or three staffers report directly to ownership.
I realize passer rating doesn’t mean everything but I find it funny that Tua’s passer rating is 0.3 points less than Caleb Williams’ and Tua has been benched and the team is contemplating eating $99 million in dead money to get rid of him. And people are acting like Caleb Williams is the comeback player of the year. And Tua has a better passer rating than Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young, two more QB’s people are claiming have turned things around.
The Bears’ success has been in spite of some lukewarm play from Williams. Caleb is much younger though, so I understand the optimism. Tua is trending in the wrong direction and is running out of time to become a “complete quarterback.”
I think a lot of these teams don’t realize that the trend in the modern game is for quarterbacks to develop until they’re around 27-28. That’s why we’re seeing so many QBs have more success with their second/third team than the one that drafted them.
Caleb Williams also comes with a rookies salary…Tua is eating up cap while killing the offense. Meanwhile, their GM couldn’t figure out how to pay for a serviceable defense.
Sure, why not tank another year so they clear off some of that Tua money from the cap?
May as well just keep Kelly for a year or two if you’re going to keep McDaniel. What GM worth his salt is going to take the job if he’s forced to keep the coach AND has $3.50 to spend in terms of salary cap space? Kelly better hire some great new scouts who can evaluate talent. Grier and his team couldn’t for his reign of error. The Dolphins need every, single one of their draft picks to make the team the next two years and the ones who don’t will be replaced by undrafted free agents. Ah, good times……..
I’d say this is an extremely attractive position for a GM. The owner knows it’s going to be a full teardown, so the GM hired will get the leash to choose what assets he keeps or moves on from, pick his QB this offseason or next, and then pick his own head coach in a season or two after firing McDaniel.
About mid season next year when the Dolphins are again under achieving the same scenario will play itself out in Miami. The problem for McDaniel is he won’t have a QB to throw under the bus to save his job on that occasion.