As a back-to-back AFC South champion, Houston entered the 2025 season as the odds-on favorite to rule the division again. While few expected either the Jaguars or Colts to seriously contend, they’re ahead of the Texans entering Week 14. With the exception of the 1-11 Titans, who may be on their way to a second straight No. 1 overall pick, the AFC South is anyone’s to win with five games remaining.
Jacksonville and Indianapolis, both 8-4, will meet on Sunday with first place on the line. They’ll also square off in Week 17. The Texans (7-5) will go on the road to face the Chiefs (6-6) in something resembling a do-or-die game for the reigning conference champions. Having already beaten the Colts in Indianapolis last Sunday, the Texans will host them in a game that could decide the division or a playoff berth in Week 18. The Texans and Jaguars split their season series. They won’t see each other again unless they match up in the postseason.
The Colts have been atop the division for most of 2025, but they dropped to second place in Week 13. Thanks in part to an unexpected resurgence from quarterback Daniel Jones, a free agent addition who previously flamed out with the Giants, the Colts stormed to a 7-1 start. They held the No. 1 seed in the AFC at that point.
Acquiring star cornerback Sauce Gardner from the Jets before the Nov. 4 deadline was supposed to bolster the Colts’ chances of at least winning the division. They’ve now lost three of four, though, and Gardner could miss multiple weeks with a calf strain. Jones is playing through a fibula injury, meanwhile, and league-leading rusher Jonathan Taylor is coming off back-to-back mediocre showings.
While the shine has come off the Colts in recent weeks, the Jaguars and Texans have surged. Despite losing prized first-round rookie wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter to a season-ending knee injury in early November, the Jaguars have won three in a row. They’ve succeeded despite underwhelming numbers from quarterback Trevor Lawrence and a major downturn in production from second-year receiver Brian Thomas.
The Texans have survived despite a significant injury to C.J. Stroud, who returned last week. The third-year signal-caller missed three full games with a concussion. The Texans went undefeated in that span under backup Davis Mills, who led a dramatic fourth-quarter comeback over the Jags in Week 10.
Mills’ heroics proved crucial against Jacksonville, but the Texans’ top-ranked defense is the main reason they’re still in the race. Winners of seven of nine and four straight, the Texans have a legitimate chance to become the latest team to rally for a playoff berth after starting 0-3. Only six, including the 2018 Texans, have done so since 1979.
Although Indianapolis is reeling while Jacksonville and Houston are trending up, the Colts are still slight favorites to conquer the South, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. At 41%, they’re narrowly edging out the Jaguars (40%) ahead of Sunday’s showdown. The Texans (19%) are a distant third.
How do you expect this three-team battle to play out over the final month of the season? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
tlaw is such a roller coaster
3rd in the nfl in INTs, and 30th in QB rating
1 day he’s getting his @ss handed to him, the next he’s leading a game winning drive.
shocked jags are where they currently are, but still plenty of time for them to collapse and disappoint as they’ve done for 30 years
We can only hope so.
i hope houston onky because that means they probly beat the chiefs this weekend and kept mahomes out of playoffs
Good thing the NFLPA care so much about player safety that Dimes gets to play on a broken leg.
NFL and NFLPA are both laughing stocks.
I think jaguars come out on top. Their defense is just as good as Houston now except jaguars have a way cleaner run game
Speaking of Jax, if you’re in Orlando or most anywhere in central Florida you’ll be seeing the Jaguars on Sunday. CBS had assigned the Saints-Buccaneers game to Orlando but the local station asked for (and is getting) Colts-Jaguars.
This is fascinating stuff but I’m worried that Chucky might have a TV guide addiction that rivals Frank Costanza’s 🙂
I’m down to watch it. If my falcons croak on Sunday we’re out of the playoffs lmao
I don’t think I agree with your statement about the Jaguars’ defense. That Houston defense is pretty stacked.
I do agree, however, that the Jags have the upper hand on the division. They already have a one game advantage in the division and the tiebreaker over Houston. Additionally, their schedule is much easier than that of the Colts. If the Jags win over the Titans and Jets (which you would hope happens) and just split with Indy, they’re in a pretty good position
Look at jaguars last few games their defense is playing very well. They’re stacked too, Hines Allen, Devin Lloyd, etc. they seem more ready. Texans are good too but lack of run game they get exploited too much.
The Texans have only allowed the 4th most rushing yards and have the 7th best rushing defense DVOA. Jags are 1st and 9th in those categories, respectively, so I don’t think the difference is significant.
Whereas in the secondary, the Texans have allowed the fewest passing yards and have the top ranked pass defense by DVOA, whereas the Jags are middle of the pack in both respects. Furthermore, the Jaguars have allowed 50 more points than the Texans all season (for perspective, 50 is 1/4 of the points Houston has allowed)
So you agree lol
No, I don’t. You said the Jags’ defense is “…just as good as Houston”, and I just clarified why I don’t believe that to be true
Hmmmm
Watch them lose to the Jets.
Jags, but I wouldn’t be surprised about any of the three. I expect it to come down to week 18.
Jags got it imo. Colts always choke closer they get to playoffs.
Jags can’t get of their own way. One of the most penalized teams in the league.
I think there’s still time for the Jets to manage a 3-peat as the most penalized team 🙂
Jets aren’t even close to having the most penalties.
That penalty Membou took that resulted in Folk having to attempt a 56 yard FG rather than a 51 yard effort was classic Jets. Lots of football to be played yet so never under estimate the Jets ability to self destruct.
Colts choke in December and Texans have a horrible run game. Jags are primed for a better finish. Maybe I’m crazy
Chandlerbing is such an awful commenter.
Let me guess…you have a reasonably priced online course that is going to make us all better commenters right?
I read his posts like he’s 12, and it helps me.
I think every 12 year old is probably better at trouble shooting cyber related issues than I am…lol.
Texans schedule is tuffff
defense is tuff. U can’t lose if u don’t give up points