Sunday’s action provided more clarity on a number of fronts relating to the playoff pushes in each conference. The list of teams still in contention for the top pick in the 2026 draft remains long, however.
Week 15 saw the Broncos and Rams clinch a postseason berth. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, Bengals and Vikings have each officially been eliminated from the playoffs. They will join the group of teams turning their attention to offseason planning. That of course includes extensive evaluation of the top prospects in this year’s class; several have already turned pro (with some exceptions).
Sunday’s results mean there are nine teams with two, three or four wins. Each of them remain candidates to secure the No. 1 selection, although victories by the Saints and Commanders yesterday will greatly hinder their chances of moving to the top of the order. Jockeying amongst teams like the Raiders, Jets and Cardinals (each on track to pursue a new quarterback this spring) will be a storyline worth following closely down the stretch.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order is determined by the inverted 2025 standings plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule. Playoff squads are slotted by their postseason outcome and the reverse order of their regular season record.
Here is an updated look at the first-round order:
- New York Giants (2-12)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
- Tennessee Titans (2-12)
- Cleveland Browns (3-11)
- New York Jets (3-11)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-11)
- New Orleans Saints (4-10)
- Washington Commanders (4-10)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-10)
- Los Angeles Rams (via Falcons)
- Miami Dolphins (6-8)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
- Minnesota Vikings (6-8)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)
- Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
- Carolina Panthers (7-7)
- Detroit Lions (8-6)
- New York Jets (via Colts)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
- Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)
- Houston Texans (9-5)
- Dallas Cowboys (via Packers)
- Buffalo Bills (10-4)
- Chicago Bears (10-4)
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
- San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
- Cleveland Browns (via Jaguars)
- New England Patriots (11-3)
- Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-3)
- Denver Broncos (12-2)
So the Giants-Raiders game in two weeks won’t be meaningless after all.
Two coaches trying to pull a Lovie Smith and blow the number one overall pick for the team about to fire them.
Raiders better pray they lose cuz boy do they need a QB
The Giants most likely would not draft a QB, so they should be fine regardless.
Schoen: “We’re fine at QB so I was thinking of using our first pick on a kicker”.
I don’t think Schoen will be making any decisions. At least for the sake of Giants fans he shouldn’t be
If a team that doesn’t need a quarterback has the number one overall pick, they can get a haul by trading down, especially in a year when three teams that could want a quarterback have two first rounders.
How confident are the Giants with Dart? Would they consider Mendoza and trade Dart to Vegas?
Giants are not confident about Dart — he had to come out of the Skins game for 2 plays for a concussion test — they’ll need a new QB1 if Dart keeps getting concussions.
they would trade the pick, not necessarily to the Raiders.
The Raiders need to draft lineman (and a lot of them before they worry about a QB). A QB does you no good if he is on his back before a 3 step drop. I saw some stat recently that Jeanty has been his behind the line of scrimmage more than any player in 40 years (or something to that extent). They can pass block and they sure as hell can’t run block. So draft 7 O-line and few D Line and see who can stick.
The Dolphins are officially out now. I’m not sure how the tiebreaker works with the Chiefs, the Vikings and them.
Strength of schedule is the first tie-breaker for determining Draft position. Coming out of Monday night, Miami has the worst SoS of those 3 teams.
The league hasn’t has so little parity in a long time. And this has been one of the best seasons in recent memory. We know who’s good, why they’re good and what their weakness is. No Goliaths either. And inversely if you’re team is bad you don’t have false hope and know a lot of work needs to be done. Even middle of the pack teams have a clear identity and path forward. Some of them are going to make the post-season and they legit have reasons to think themselves a David. Am I the only one who’s loving this?