Former Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart was not a surefire first-round pick entering last year’s draft, though he ultimately came off the board in Round 1. The Giants, who had previously selected Abdul Carter third overall, traded back into the first round to grab Dart at No. 25. A team could do something similar this year with Alabama QB Ty Simpson, but he has less momentum going into this draft than Dart had in 2025, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN hears.

[RELATED: PFR’s 2026 Mock Draft]

While the Jets, Cardinals and Steelers have been connected to Simpson more than anyone else, it would be a surprise to see any of them use their initial pick on him. New York has Nos. 2 and 16, both of which are likely too high to take Simpson. The team may just wait until what could be a deeper 2027 class to draft a signal-caller, though perhaps the Jets will strongly consider Simpson if he is still available when they are on the clock again at No. 33.

There is indeed a possibility Simpson will fall out of the top 32, though the Cardinals may trade back into the round for him. They would mimic last year’s Giants in that regard. Otherwise, unless the Cardinals reach for Simpson with the third overall choice, their next opportunity to bring him in will come at 34. That happens to be where the Giants sat last year before going for Dart. Along with surrendering that pick, the Giants dealt a 2025 and ’26 third-rounder to move up nine spots.

The Cardinals’ Monti Ossenfort has only picked one QB – fifth-rounder Clayton Tune in 2023 – in three drafts as their general manager. But as PFR’s Sam Robinson noted, there may be more urgency to gamble on the position this year if Ossenfort is on the hot seat. The Cardinals have gone 15-36 with Ossenfort at the controls. If the team is a bottom feeder again next season, Ossenfort may be out of a job when the 2027 draft rolls around. Picking Simpson could be his last chance for a bold QB move in Arizona.

One of the main concerns regarding Simpson is a lack of experience. He made just 15 starts in college, which is reportedly a deterrent for the Steelers. As the reigning AFC North champions await a decision on 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers future, they are down to career backup Mason Rudolph and untested 2025 seventh-round pick Will Howard as their top options at the game’s most important position. It does not appear they are going to tab Simpson at No. 21 overall, though. They have not even given Simpson a first-round grade, Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. In the Steelers’ opinion, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is the lone member of this class with franchise QB potential, per Dulac.

Mendoza going to the Raiders at No. 1 overall is a lock, but this could end up a one-QB first round. Simpson’s odds of coming off the board in Round 1 remain iffy as the draft draws closer.

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