Uncategorized News & Rumors

Lions CB Ennis Rakestraw Moving Outside After Rookie Struggles

The Lions added cornerback Ennis Rakestraw in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft last year, but a look into the rookie’s first full season brings about questions concerning whether or not he was worth the draft stock used on him. A bit of position change and some new competition should give him a chance at redemption in 2025, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.

As a rookie, Rakestraw’s primary focus was playing as a slot cornerback. The 23-year-old claims that he was even in line to start the team’s Week 2 contest before suffering a pulled hamstring in pregame warmups. After a sports hernia from his days at Missouri limited him in training camp and the pulled hamstring forced him to miss two games early, the injuries compounded, and an eventual strained hamstring sent him to injured reserve for the last seven games of the season.

Even when he was healthy, though, Rakestraw struggled to get on the field as a rookie. Through eight game appearances, Rakestraw only saw 46 defensive snaps. He did see more than double that number of snaps on special teams, but a second-round pick is an expensive price to pay for a special teamer.

So far, in summer activities this year, Rakestraw has been working exclusively as an outside cornerback. Per Birkett, “he took first-team reps at left cornerback last week and should compete for the top backup” role behind returning starter Terrion Arnold and free agent addition D.J. Reed. The slot should be perfectly fine without Rakestraw as Amik Robertson returns as the primary nickelback and another free agent addition, Avonte Maddox, should back him up.

Cornerbacks coach Deshea Townsend adds that he thinks Rakestraw should benefit from being able to solely focus on playing outside cornerback. His competition for the CB3 job will be Khalil Dorsey and Rock Ya-Sin. Dorsey has been in Detroit the last two seasons. He’s started three games in that span, but outside of those three games, he’s hardly seen the field. Still, the Lions signed him to a new two-year deal this offseason.

Ya-Sin, another free agent addition this offseason, hasn’t seen significant playing time since 2022. Also a former second-round pick, Ya-Sin was traded from the Colts to the Raiders for the final year of his rookie contract, starting 38 games in his first four years. In the two years since, Ya-Sin has spent a year each with the Ravens and 49ers coming off the bench and playing mostly on special teams.

Rakestraw will have a lot to prove in his sophomore season in order to quiet the critics. Some renewed health, a move to the outside, and some real competition should help push him to improve in his second year.

NFC West Notes: Rams, Kittle, Hawks, Cards

Tyler Higbee has been the Rams‘ top tight end for many years, dating back to the team’s separation from Gerald Everett in 2021. Higbee, however, is now in Year 10 and coming off a three-game season. The Rams have attempted to install an heir apparent on multiple occasions, most notably failing in an attempt to trade up for Brock Bowers last year. Los Angeles then was tied to an effort to move up for Colston Loveland last month, and ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler indicates the team did discuss trades with teams holding top-10 picks.

Once Loveland went to the Bears at 10, the Rams regrouped and traded down, picking up a 2026 first-rounder (from the Falcons) to do so. Upon leaving Round 1, however, the Rams eyed the next wave of tight ends in this draft. Both Mason Taylor (LSU) and Terrance Ferguson (Oregon) were on the team’s radar, per Fowler, who notes Ferguson was rated higher despite Taylor going to the Jets four spots earlier. The Rams have Ferguson (591 receiving yards in 2024) readying to become the Higbee heir apparent.

Here is the latest from the NFC West:

  • Ferguson is unlikely to unseat George Kittle as the NFC West’s top tight end anytime soon, as the 49ers extended their All-Pro dynamo recently. San Francisco’s four-year, $76.4MM deal includes $35MM guaranteed at signing. Beyond fully guaranteed money in 2025 and ’26, Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio notes $2MM of Kittle’s 2027 pay ($17.15MM) is locked in at signing. The 49ers have also dived into the option bonus game, which will help keep Kittle’s cap hits under $19MM until 2029. Kittle can unlock $5MM more in 2027 guarantees by being a 2026 Pro Bowler or landing on the All-Pro first or second team that year; reaching a number of statistical benchmarks that year also could allow Kittle to cash in on that $5MM 2027 bump, Florio adds.
  • Sam Darnold‘s three-year, $100.5MM Seahawks contract became classified as a pay-as-you-go pact, and ESPN’s Brady Henderson provided an important detail here. Seattle gave Darnold a $15MM roster bonus, but it is not due until February 13 — five days after Super Bowl LX. The Seahawks can cut bait during that window, reminding of the Raiders’ 2023 Derek Carr divorce, if the Darnold partnership does not pan out. Seattle would still pick up a $25.6MM dead money hit (due to signing bonus proration) by cutting Darnold after one season.
  • DC Aden Durde pushed for Rylie Mills in Round 5 (via the pick obtained in the Sam Howell trade), but the Seahawks will wait a bit to see the Day 3 D-lineman in action. A torn ACL sustained in December is expected to keep the Notre Dame product out until at least midseason, John Schneider said (via Henderson). A late-season return is also in play for a player who will be more of a long-term option in Seattle.
  • Not rostering a fullback in many years, the Seahawks had planned to add one to work in Klint Kubiak‘s offense. They did so in the draft, as Schneider confirmed (via Henderson) Alabama tight end Robbie Ouzts — a fifth-round pick — will begin his career at fullback. The 274-pound SEC product will compete with Brady Russell, who has played 26 Seahawks games (zero starts) since arriving in September 2023.
  • A former South Carolina defensive back, Landon Grier made an early foray into the NFL scouting ranks. The Cardinals hired him straight out of college to be a scouting assistant. The son of Dolphins GM Chris Grier, Landon is not expected back with the Cards in 2025, with InsidetheLeague.com’s Neil Stratton noting the younger Grier is on track to return to the college ranks for a personnel role.
  • The 49ers are also parting ways with a scouting staffer, with Stratton adding Michael Zyskowski is moving on after three years with the franchise. Late spring regularly serves as a point teams reshuffle scouting staffs, as contracts usually run through the draft in an effort to ensure continuity ahead of the event.

NFC South Notes: Falcons, Clowney, Renfrow

The NFL will attempt to put the Shedeur Sanders prank-call storyline in the past, levying fines against the Falcons and new DC Jeff Ulbrich. The veteran coordinator’s son, Jax, made a prank call to Sanders as he fell during the draft. Jax Ulbrich, who pretended to be Saints GM Mickey Loomis when calling the Colorado QB during his draft freefall, apologized to Sanders (after taking the QB’s number off his father’s iPad), but Jeff Ulbrich will lose a chunk of his salary as a result of the act. The league fined Jeff Ulbrich $100K, according to NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero, who adds the Falcons will be fined $250K for Sanders’ number being leaked. Jeff Ulbrich said (via The Athletic’s Josh Kendall) he and his son take “full responsibility” for the prank. The veteran assistant said he also apologized to Deion Sanders.

Unlike the Falcons’ Kirk Cousins tampering penalty last year, no draft picks will be taken away for the incident involving the Ulbrichs. The Falcons hired Ulbrich to replace Jimmy Lake, whom Raheem Morris fired after one season on the job. This has certainly not been a smooth ride for Falcons DCs. Ulbrich is the team’s fourth in four years (Ulbrich, Lake, Ryan Nielsen, Dean Pees), and the former Jets interim HC’s tenure is not off to a good start thanks to this development. The Falcons have now been fined $575K over the past three years (h/t Yahoo’s Nate Tice), thanks to this coming after the 2024 tampering issue and 2023 Bijan Robinson injury report matter.

Here is the latest from the NFC South:

  • Jadeveon Clowney has become available in trades, and the Panthers had thrown his name around before drafting two edge rushers (Nic Scourton, Princely Umanmielen on Day 2. Carolina’s pre-draft discussions on Clowney with multiple teams, per ESPN.com’s David Newton. As Ejiro Evero will begin molding the two rookie edge players, Clowney could be on the move yet again. The Panthers would save $9.78MM by trading Clowney, who is on his sixth NFL team.
  • The Panthers are pulling Hunter Renfrow back into the NFL, after the former 1,000-yard Raiders wide receiver did not play in 2024. Renfrow, 29, took last year off in part because he was battling an autoimmune disorder (ulcerative colitis) that caused fatigue and weight loss, according to Panthers.com’s Darin Gantt. The Clemson alum said the weight loss caused him to drop to around 150 pounds. Renfrow viewed himself as ready to make a comeback by January, and he is now back to 187 pounds. The Panthers’ receiving setup will not guarantee Renfrow a roster spot, as he fell out of favor with the Raiders following his 1,038-yard 2021 season. But the South Carolina native will have a shot to make an impact in his native region.
  • One of Ulbrich’s new pieces to arrive in the draft, fourth-round pick Billy Bowman, enters the league as a safety. But that will not be his primary role in Atlanta. The Falcons will shift Bowman into the slot to start his career, Ulbrich said (via the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s D. Orlando Ledbetter). The Falcons took Bowman with the No. 118 overall pick. He will head to Georgia after earning first-team All-Big 12 (2023) and third-team All-SEC (2024) acclaim. The Falcons addressed their safety position in the third round (Xavier Watts) and in free agency, bringing in Jordan Fuller as another option to start alongside Jessie Bates. Justin Simmons remains a free agent.
  • The Saints added some edge-rushing depth this week, agreeing to bring in veteran Chris Rumph. This came shortly after New Orleans agreed to terms with 11 UDFAs.

Rams, Saints, Steelers Showing Interest In Jaxson Dart

The Brian DabollJaxson Dart connections preceding a report that pegged Shedeur Sanders as the QB2 on the Giants’ big board illustrates where we are on the NFL calendar effectively. This is peak smokescreen season.

Dart, though, was among the QBs to gain momentum as the pre-draft process wore on. The chance he becomes this draft’s second QB chosen, over Sanders, is squarely on the radar, according to The Athletic’s Jeff Howe. While Ely Allen’s PFR mock placed Dart ahead of Sanders, the latter falling to the QB3 slot in this draft — after being viewed as close to Cam Ward late last year — would be a blow for the second-generation NFL prospect. Daniel Jeremiah’s final NFL.com big board places Sanders 20th and Dart 36th.

A Malik Willis-like fall seems unlikely for Sanders, given the number of teams looking for quarterbacks, but his stock has undeniably taken a hit during the pre-draft process. Dart would stand to benefit, with Howe adding the Saints, Steelers and Rams are showing interest in the Ole Miss product. All three hosted Dart on “30” visits.

A Rams-Tyler Shough connection also emerged this week, and while it seemed then like the team would not use its first-round pick (No. 26) on a Matthew Stafford successor (as opposed to arming the roster to help the aging QB), this Dart rumor gives such a decision some legs. Stafford is under contract for two more seasons, but his contract adjustment still has not been revealed.

The Saints were tied to Dart a few weeks ago, and they have certainly done plenty of work on the QB. PFR’s mock sent Dart to New Orleans, but the team is not expected to want to use its No. 9 overall pick for a passer. Of course, if the Saints balk, they run the risk of missing out on their preferred second-tier QB option in this draft. And they still do not have Derek Carr clarity.

If the Saints do delay their QB need at 9, the Steelers will become the team to watch. Clubs already look to be closely monitoring Pittsburgh for a QB pick, as Denver’s No. 20 selection has come up in trade rumors. The Steelers (No. 21) appear to be sending signals in all directions, as Mike Tomlin is believed to back Sanders. Dart has come up on multiple occasions here as well, and a trade-down rumor — as the Steelers initially did not expect Sanders to fall out of the top 10 — also emerged.

As Aaron Rodgers has continued to leave the Steelers hanging, they have a decision to make soon. If Carr is able to play in 2025, the Saints and Rams have starter-caliber options to deploy. The Steelers would have a basement-level option in Mason Rudolph, highlighting their high-stakes draft.

Giants To Target CB In Free Agency

Free agency is just around the corner, and after four years with Joe Schoen at the helm as general manager, the Giants are still looking for additions to their roster that can take them to the next level. ESPN’s Jordan Raanan did a deep dive yesterday on some of the players and positions New York will be focusing on in the coming weeks.

Internally, Raanan identified the Giants’ top free agents as wide receiver Darius Slayton, outside linebacker Azeez Ojulari, safety Jason Pinnock, and right guard Greg Van Roten. Of the four, Raanan notes that it looks likely that most, if not all, will hit the open market.

Slayton is looking to join a contender on his next deal. While he hasn’t caught more than five touchdowns in a season since his rookie year, Slayton has surpassed 700 receiving yards in four his six seasons. Receiver-hungry teams like the Chargers and Steelers are likely to seek services like his.

Ojulari has never quite broken out, only averaging 5.5 sacks per year and missing notable time in each of the past three seasons. That could hurt his market, especially with several notable veterans (including the likes of recent cuts Joey Bosa and Harold Landry) available in free agency. Still, while teams which are unable to make a notable addition in the coming days could look to a highly regarded draft class in the pass-rush department, the 24-year-old Ojuari could be an attractive option on a short-term deal.

Pinnock and/or Van Roten departing would create vacancies in the secondary and offensive line, areas which are already in need of help for the Giants. Raanan notes a starting-caliber addition will be sought out at the guard spot, even if Evan Neal (who has not developed as hoped at right tackle) is moved inside. A modest investment at safety can also be expected, whether that consists of retaining Pinnock or signing one of the middle class free agent options.

With respect to priorities for outside addition, cornerback will be a position to monitor. Raanan reports the Giants are looking to make a free agent move at the top of the market. Adding a cover man like D.J. ReedPaulson Adebo, Charvarius Ward or Byron Murphy – names listed by Raanan as targets New York has looked into (or likely will) – will be expensive. Bringing in any of those veterans to lead a depth chart featuring Deonte Banks and Dru Phillips would, though, go a long way in helping a defense which ranked 31st in the NFL in interceptions last year.

Another potential target could be Isaiah Rodgers. Pat Leonard of the New York Daily News reports the 2024 Eagles pickup is worth watching as free agency approaches. Rodgers, 27, only logged a 36% snap share on defense for the Super Bowl winners but he played a key role on special teams and could secure a larger workload on a new deal. Philadelphia has moved on from Darius Slay and James Bradberry, creating the opportunity for Rodgers to work as a starter if he re-signs.

The Giants currently find themselves with $45.62MM in cap space, a figure which will drop slightly once the new deal for punter Jamie Gillan becomes official, but plenty of funds will be available to make a notable splash at the cornerback position. It will be interesting to see who the team targets at the onset of the negotiating window.

Adam La Rose contributed to this post. 

2025 RFA Tender Numbers

In addition to recent salary cap, franchise tag, and transition tag numbers for 2025, Tom Pelissero of NFL Network reported today on the numbers for restricted free agent tenders.

Restricted free agent tenders apply to players who are entering free agency with only three years of accrued NFL experience. While unrestricted free agents (players entering free agency with four or more years of experience) are able to determine their new contracts off of market demands, restricted free agents are limited to different tender categorizations. If a team doesn’t tender a restricted free agent by the start of the new league year, they’ll immediately become unrestricted free agents who can sign anywhere with no market limitations.

If a team does tender a restricted free agent, they can place first-round, second-round, original-round, or right-of-first-refusal tenders on the player. Other teams can submit offer sheets for the tendered player if they wish to acquire him, but the team that tendered him can match the offer sheet to keep the player if they choose. If a first-, second-, or original-round tender is placed on the player, the tendering team can receive draft compensation if it allows the player to walk for the offer sheet.

Like the franchise and transition tag, the restricted free agent tender is a one-year contract. The value of that contract is limited and determined by what tender is placed on the player.

For 2025, if a team places a simple, right-of-first-refusal tender on a player, he will earn a salary of $3.26MM for the year, should he sign that tender. If the team places a right-of-first-refusal tender with compensation set at the player’s original draft round, he will earn the higher of $3.41MM or 110% of the 2024 Paragraph 5 salary for the year, should he sign. The same tender with a designated second-round compensation will result in that player earning the higher of $5.35MM or 110% of the 2024 Paragraph 5 salary for the year, should he sign. The same tender with a designated first-round compensation will result in that player earning the higher of $7.46MM or 110% of the 2024 Paragraph 5 salary for the year, should he sign.

Lastly, should a player with a first-round tender receive an offer sheet from another team that waives or limits the new team’s ability to place the franchise/transition tag on that player and that provision is not matched by the tendering team, the player can earn the higher of $7.96MM or 110% of the 2024 Paragraph 5 salary for the year, should he sign.

Steelers To Prioritize 2025 T.J. Watt Deal

Although Myles Garrett and Trey Hendrickson have generated far more headlines this offseason, T.J. Watt is a central part of what promises to be a transformative edge rusher year. As expected, the Steelers are readying a second extension.

Fourth-year GM Omar Khan said (via the Pat McAfee Show‘s Mark Kaboly) extending Watt will be a priority. Watt, who said he wants to remain with the Steelers beyond 2025, joins Hendrickson and Micah Parsons as All-Pro edge defenders entering contract years.

It took the Steelers until days before Week 1 to complete a Watt deal in 2021, as the Pennsylvania pass-rushing icon scored three fully guaranteed years — breaking a Steelers non-QB precedent — at that point. With other standouts (Garrett included) on the radar for big-ticket extensions, more complications may be afoot for the Steelers this time around.

Watt’s four-year, $112MM extension held the title for most lucrative EDGE contract for two years, as it took until Nick Bosa‘s holdout produced a $34MM-per-year deal. It took until March 2024 for another player (Brian Burns) to surpass Watt’s $28MM-AAV pact. Bosa remains the only edge player earning more than $29MM per annum. That will almost definitely change this offseason.

Early word about a Watt number has produced a price between $35-$37MM per year, Sportskeeda.com’s Tony Pauline notes. The cap has ballooned by a staggering amount since Watt signed his deal. The COVID-19 pandemic had dropped the 2021 cap $182.5MM. Projections for the 2025 cap have it checking in nearly $100MM north of that place. Some of the league’s best players are in contract years, and their extensions should reflect where the cap has gone.

Garrett, Hendrickson and Parsons’ situations will naturally impact Watt’s. The Pittsburgh superstar is the most decorated player from this contingent, and he is going into an age-31 season. Watt will glide to the Hall of Fame one day, but he remains in his prime. A deal that approaches $40MM per year would not be out of step with a market that could produce some eye-popping numbers before Week 1. As the Bengals are prepared to make Ja’Marr Chase the league’s highest-paid non-QB, the superstar wide receiver will have competition beyond his own position for that title. Justin Jefferson is currently the NFL’s highest-paid non-QB, at $35MM per year. It will probably take more for the Steelers to extend Watt.

One of Watt’s practice opponents is again in position-change rumors, as Kaboly adds the Steelers are planning to slide Broderick Jones to the left side. The Steelers’ starter at RT for the past 1 1/2 seasons, Jones was rumored to be heading to LT to challenge Dan Moore Jr. for the past two years. No stiff challenges emerged, as Moore continued to fend off first-round picks.

With Moore expected to depart in free agency and Troy Fautanu returning after missing most of his rookie season, a Pittsburgh line featuring their 2023 and ’24 first-round picks at left and right tackle will be the plan.

Jones has not yet justified the Steelers’ No. 14 overall investment. Pro Football Focus rated the Georgia alum as the 65th overall tackle. He allowed 10 sacks — the third-most in the NFL — in his second season. While the Steelers employing sack-prone QBs in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields did not help either Jones or Moore (NFL-high 12 sacks allowed), the team is counting on Jones to step up. Jones moving to LT, where he has only played 129 snaps, will be his next step, as the 2025 season will largely determine how the Steelers proceed with the Jones’ fifth-year option come 2026.

Panthers, C Austin Corbett Push Back Void Date

The Panthers have bought themselves a bit more time to determine whether center Austin Corbett will continue his playing career in Charlotte. Per OverTheCap.com, via Mike Kaye of the Charlotte Observer, player and team have agreed to push the void date on Corbett’s contract to March 11, one day before the start of the 2025 league year.

Corbett, 29, just completed the final season of the three-year, $29.25MM deal he signed with the Panthers in March 2022. He suited up for a full complement of games in his debut Carolina campaign, and his play was mostly in line with his platform-year performance with the Rams in 2021, which is what convinced the Panthers to authorize a notable free agent contract in the first place. 

Unfortunately, Corbett suffered an ACL tear during the 17th and final contest of the 2022 season, which led to missed time the following year. The former Browns draftee briefly returned to action in 2023, but an MCL injury limited him to only four games. Then, in Week 5 of the 2024 slate, Corbett sustained a season-ending biceps tear.

Having played just nine games due to significant injuries in each of the past two seasons, Corbett would not be hitting the open market with any kind of positive momentum if he were to leave the Panthers. And a new contract with Carolina would likely be a modest one, although his familiarity with the offense may be attractive to him as he seeks to rebuild his value. 

From the club’s perspective, a new contract would allow the Panthers to reduce the nearly $8MM dead cap charge they would incur if Corbett’s current deal simply voids. It would also allow them to retain a player who has proven to be a capable blocker when healthy, a player to whom they entrusted the starting center job last spring in the critical second year of QB Bryce Young’s development (Corbett had operated exclusively at right guard in each of his four prior seasons and had never played the pivot at the professional level).

As Kaye notes, the delay of the void date does not guarantee that the two sides will strike a new agreement, though there is clearly at least some interest in a reunion. Even if Corbett does return, however, it would be fair to expect the Panthers to further bolster the center position in the draft and/or free agency. 

Poll: Who Will Secure AFC’s Third Wild-Card Spot?

Late-season collapses certainly occur, with injuries obviously playing key roles in contenders’ blueprints. As it stands now, however, the AFC playoff picture is top-heavy. It is quite possible the stretch run will feature division leaders jockeying for seeding and two wild-card teams hovering over the race for the bottom bracket slot.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Chargers a 94.7% chance to make the playoffs, with the AFC North holding a strong likelihood of producing a wild-card squad as well. Both the Steelers and Ravens’ chances sit north of 95%. Although the volume of sub-.500 AFC teams could drain drama from this year’s fight to wear white in Round 1, the conference does have a handful of teams on the fringe who appear poised for a battle to claim the No. 7 seed.

Six AFC teams have eight or nine losses entering Week 12. While the 2008 Chargers started 5-8 and erased a three-game division deficit with three to play, the odds are stacked against the conference’s bottom tier (Patriots, Jets, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Raiders). This leaves four teams in between.

The Broncos have not made a postseason appearance since winning Super Bowl 50. Considering the Russell Wilson release brought a two-offseason dead money number unlike anything the NFL has seen, Denver snapping that drought this year was not expected. Wilson counts for $53MM on Denver’s 2024 payroll, with the club taking on the larger portion of the dead money this year ($30MM-plus is on the books for next year, as a small cap credit from the QB’s Steelers pact awaits). But Sean Payton‘s team is 6-5 and holds a, per FPI, 50.3% chance of making the playoffs.

Although the Broncos kept costs low and also moved on from Justin Simmons and Jerry Jeudy, they resisted Courtland Sutton trade offers — including a third-rounder from the 49ers in August — and assembled an interesting roster around No. 12 overall pick Bo Nix. The Oregon alum’s progress defines Denver’s season, as the team appears close to identifying a surefire long-term quarterback. The franchise has not seen a QB start more than four seasons since John Elway, amplifying the interest in Nix’s sudden entrance into the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, but Vance Joseph‘s defense has proven better than expected.

Extending Patrick Surtain in September and paying Jonathon Cooper just before trading Baron Browning, Denver sits third in scoring defense and third in yardage. The team leads the NFL with 39 sacks. This has given Nix important support during his maiden NFL voyage.

Defense has conversely burned the 4-7 Bengals, who are squandering MVP-caliber work from Joe Burrow. Back from a season-ending wrist injury, Burrow has thrown an NFL-most 27 touchdown passes (compared to four interceptions) and has done so despite franchise-tagged wideout Tee Higgins missing five games. The Bengals are not expected to pay Higgins, with a 2025 tag-and-trade perhaps all that is left on the contract front between the parties after no substantial talks have taken place since early 2023, but Ja’Marr Chase‘s extension price — a matter tabled to 2025 — will rise coming out of this season.

Chase’s 1,056 yards pace the NFL by more than 100. A defense that had been solid during the team’s 2021 and ’22 seasons has fallen off. Cincinnati augmented its defense by adding Sheldon Rankins and Geno Stone while reacquiring Vonn Bell, but Lou Anarumo‘s unit ranks 28th. FPI gives the Bengals a 14.8% chance to make the playoffs. While this is almost definitely the highest-ceiling team left on the AFC’s fringe, a team that entered the year with Super Bowl aspirations in the expected Burrow-Chase-Higgins trio’s final act together runs the risk of missing the postseason entirely.

Sitting at 4-6, the Dolphins carry a 13.6% qualification chance, per FPI. Mike McDaniel‘s team is here largely due to Tua Tagovailoa‘s concussion-driven IR stay; the Dolphins went 1-3 without their recently extended starter. Tagovailoa’s absence reduced an offense that had led the NFL in yardage last season to one of the league’s worst.

Even as Tagovailoa has returned, neither Tyreek Hill nor Jaylen Waddle has taken off. The Dolphins paid both this offseason, reworking Hill’s contract and extending Waddle in a deal that delivered the younger WR a better guarantee than Hill received via his 2022 extension. Through 10 games, Waddle is at 404 yards. Hill, who topped 1,700 in each of his two full Dolphins slates, has accumulated just 523.

As Miami’s elite wideout tandem will need to heat up soon for the team to have a chance at a third straight playoff berth — something the club has not accomplished since a five-year run from 1997-2001 — its defense is again without Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. Phillips suffered a season-ending knee injury, while Chubb has not recovered from the ACL tear that ended his 2023 season on New Year’s Eve. No Dolphin has more than four sacks or eight QB hits, with 38-year-old Calais Campbell — whom the Dolphins nearly traded back to the Ravens at the deadline — proving valuable in a four-sack start in his Miami return.

The Colts are 5-6, and FPI gives them the second-best odds (34.2%) of this bunch. Quarterback play, of course, has defined Indianapolis’ season. The team’s about-face with Anthony Richardson reminds came after a historically early benching involving a top-five pick, as the 2023 fourth overall choice had started only 10 games when benched.

Still, Richardson’s accuracy problems threaten to derail the Colts, who had gone to Joe Flacco in an attempt to better position themselves for a playoff push. After Flacco lost the ensuing two starts, Richardson is back. While the raw prospect looked better in his return start, he still carries a 48.5% completion rate. Only six QBs who have attempted at least 200 passes have finished south of 50% in a season this century.

GM Chris Ballard mostly just paid to keep his core together this offseason, though waiver claim Samuel Womack has helped a depleted boundary cornerback group. The Colts rank both 19th in scoring and points allowed, and while other components on this roster obviously matter, Richardson’s development still overshadows their season’s second half. That represents perhaps the biggest X-factor among this middle-class AFC glut.

Assuming the Chargers stay afloat and the Steelers and Ravens do not collapse, who do you think will claim the conference’s final spot in the seven-team field? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the race in the comments section.