HEADLINES

PFR Originals News & Rumors

2015 Release Candidates: AFC North

July 7th, 2015 at 11:52am CST by Dallas Robinson

Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.

Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.

After looking at the AFC East and NFC East last week, let’s dive into the AFC North…

Baltimore Ravens:

  • Arthur Brown, LB: A rare draft whiff by general manager Ozzie Newsome, Brown has failed to live up to his second-round status during his two pro seasons. After playing 436 snaps during his rookie year, Brown saw action on just 51 plays in 2014, all of which came on special teams. The 25-year-old Brown could act as valuable depth behind starters C.J. Mosley and Daryl Smith if he could put it all together, but it’s hard to predict future success for a player who wasn’t trusted to see the field for even a single defensive snap. Baltimore would save less than $800K by waiving Brown at this point, but I’m guessing it’s a move that they’ll give due consideration. Brown did reportedly draw trade interest last fall, so perhaps the Ravens will try to deal him first. Prediction: waived.
  • Sam Koch, P: Koch has the 12th-highest 2015 cap charge on Baltimore’s roster, a financial oddity I would have thought rare around the league. However, six other clubs (Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Giants, Saints, and Buccaneers) also have a punter within their top dozen cap hits, meaning nearly a quarter of NFL clubs are paying punters quite well. Cutting Koch would leave just $600K in dead money on the Ravens’ ledger (against $2.5MM in savings), but given that Koch did lead the league in net punting average last season, I think Baltimore will keep him around rather than looking for a cheaper option. Prediction: not released.
  • The Ravens traded DT Haloti Ngata and restructured CB Lardarius Webb, both of whom would have been candidates for release otherwise.

Cincinnati Bengals:

  • Leon Hall, CB: Now on the wrong side of 30, Hall has torn each of his Achilles’ in the last four seasons, and (probably in large part due to those injuries) he’s not the same player he once was. That doesn’t mean he can’t still be effective — especially in the slot, where he’s expected to spend most of his time in 2015 — but it’s not clear that he’s worth his $9.6MM cap figure (second-highest on the Bengals roster). Cincinnati has not threatened Hall with release, or even asked him to take a paycut, despite the fact that his role as the club’s No. 1 corner has been usurped. I’d guess that 31 of 32 organizations would have at least asked Hall to restructure by now, but given that the Bengals haven’t, I expect Hall to stick around for 2015. Prediction: not released.
  • Domata Peko, DT: Much that can be said about Hall can be said about Peko, in that most clubs would have cut ties long ago. The difference with Peko is that he never achieved the heights that Hall had, and his current level of play (second-worst 4-3 DT in the league in 2014, per Pro Football Focus; subscription required) is far worse than any lows Hall ever sunk to. PFF has graded Peko as a bottom-20 defensive tackle in six of the past seven seasons, but his snap count never decreases, always hovering around the 700 mark. The Bengals even signed Peko to an extension last March, but all of his guarantees have been paid out, meaning the club could release him and clear his entire $3.7MM cap figure. But there’s no reason to think Cincinnati will do so now, even if Peko does begin to lose playing time to reserve Brandon Thompson. Prediction: not released.

Cleveland Browns:

  • Gary Barnidge/Jim Dray, TE: The Browns added ex-Cardinal Rob Housler during the offseason to replace Jordan Cameron as their receiving weapon at tight end, but the club might need to decide between Barnidge and Dray for its No. 2 role, especially if it decides to keep undrafted rookie free agent E.J. Bibbs — who has drawn rave reviews from coaches — on the final 53-man roster. Barnidge is cheaper and has been the better player as of late, meaning Cleveland could be forced to cut Dray, and save $1.6MM in the process. Prediction: Dray released.
  • Ishmaa’ily Kitchen, DT: Kitchen signed his restricted free agent tender near the end of May, meaning he’s scheduled to earn $1.542MM during the upcoming season. That money isn’t guaranteed, however, and given that Kitchen is now somewhat buried on the Browns’ depth chart following the additions of Danny Shelton, Xavier Cooper, and Randy Starks, I wonder if the club might try to lower his salary. As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap explains, once the RFA period has passed, the team — knowing the player has limited options — can use that leverage to reduce his salary, often offering a minimum salary and a few hundred thousand dollars in guarantees. I could see Cleveland using this strategy, but if Kitchen balks, he could just be cut. Prediction: released.
  • Craig Robertson, LB: The 27-year-old Robertson is entering the final season of his rookie contract, and having shown excellent improvement over the past year — he posted a -15.0 PFF grade in 2013 but moved up to +2.2 in 2014 — it’s unlikely that he’ll be cut, especially given his pass coverage skills. But he did lose snaps to rookie Chris Kirksey last season, and the Browns could save more than $2.3MM by parting ways with him. Prediction: not released.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

  • Cortez Allen, CB: After agreeing to four-year extension worth $26MM in September, Allen’s play became absolutely ghastly, and his snap counts gradually dwindled until he was benched mid-way through the season; he subsequently broke his thumb and was placed on injured reserve in early December. Allen is only 26 years old, is expected to regain his starting job in 2015, and was paid a $3MM roster bonus earlier this year — all of which means it’s highly unlikely that the Steelers sever ties. But the club could still save more than $5MM by doing so, and given Allen’s struggles, it’s probably a discussion management has had. Prediction: not released.
  • Cam Thomas, DT: Thomas did nothing in his first season in Pittsburgh to justify his two-year, $4MM deal, grading as the league’s worst 3-4 defensive end, according to PFF. Steelers coaches obviously noticed his subpar production, as during the last five weeks of the season, Thomas played on just 57 of a possible 319 snaps — even for a reserve, 17% playing time is low. The only impediment to his release is Pittsburgh’s lack of depth along the defensive line, but the club simply can’t justify Thomas’ $2.5MM cap charge. I think they’ll cut him, saving $2MM of that total in the process. Prediction: released.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Eagles

July 6th, 2015 at 9:32pm CST by Zachary Links

We’ve seen some teams shake things up in the offseason, but few teams have undergone the kind of overhaul that the Eagles have. Coach Chip Kelly secured complete control in the front office and we’re all waiting to see whether he’s crazy, a genius, or some mixture of both.

Notable signings:

Byron Maxwell was widely viewed as the best FA corner available and ranked as the No. 9 overall free agent on PFR’s Top 50 list. The 27-year-old enjoyed his first season as full-time starter for the Seahawks in 2014, starting 12 games as Seattle made it second consecutive Super Bowl appearance. The Eagles were long seen as the favorites to land Maxwell and they were able to go wire-to-wire to land him as the Jets, another possible suitor, were zeroed in on a reunion with Darrelle Revis. At $63MM over six years with $25MM fully guaranteed, it’s very possible that Maxwell was an overpay. However, the Eagles believe that he will be a significant upgrade over Cary Williams, who was cut loose. Interesting note on that front, however: Pro Football Focus (subscription required) didn’t see a big difference between Maxwell and Williams in 2014. Maxwell finished the year with a -0.2 overall grade, good for 45th amongst corners. Williams, meanwhile, finished with a -1.0 score, putting him 49th amongst all corners. In short, both players were painted as average corners by the advanced metrics. He’ll be joined in the secondary by Walter Thurmond, who apparently was not thrilled with the Giants’ medical care. Thurmond will be making the switch to safety, a transition he says he can make comfortably.

DeMarco Murray (vertical)

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Did DeMarco Murray put too many miles on his odometer during his brilliant 2014 campaign? Kelly certainly doesn’t think so. There were many teams who were linked to the former Cowboys star throughout the year, but no one expected the Eagles to get heavily into the mix and come away signing him. Murray, who has struggled with injuries in years past, put it all together in 2014 for his best campaign yet. The 27-year-old ran for 1,845 yards and 13 scores with 2,261 all-purpose yards. After a season in which he showed that he can stay healthy, produce (4.7 YPC), and work at a nearly unprecedented rate, Murray hit the open market as the top RB available. The advanced numbers also showed that Murray was also at the top of the heap last season. Pro Football Focus‘ numbers (subscription required) resulted in an overall score of 15.2, placing him fifth amongst all tailbacks in 2014. His lack of meaningful production in the passing game, fumbles, and below average blocking were his only real demerits. Can Murray repeat his ’14 performance? Or, at the very least, can he do better than the guy he’s replacing? (More on that later.)

Before the Murray signing, the Eagles added Ryan Mathews and, at the time, it appeared that he would be the new No. 1 back in Philadelphia. Once Murray was inked, many wonders if Mathews would wind up elsewhere or, at the very least, reworking the performance-based incentives in his contract. At the end of the day, Mathews stayed and he’s now slated to work in tandem with Murray and Darren Sproles. Considered an injury-prone player for the first three seasons of his career, Mathews finally stayed healthy and put it all together for the Chargers in 2013, rushing for a career-high 1,255 yards. He was unable to keep that run of good health going in 2014 though, playing just eight games for San Diego due to injuries. The former 12th overall pick can be one of the league’s best backs when he’s at 100% and he could help form a lethal three-headed backfield if he stays healthy.

Now, the question is, who will be handing the ball off to those backs? Well, one possibility is Mark Sanchez, who was re-signed to a two-year contract worth $9MM with $5.5MM guaranteed. Sanchez played nine games for the Eagles in 2014, with mixed results. He completed over 64% of his passes, averaging 268 yards per game with a 14 to 11 touchdown to interception ratio. Sanchez, a former No. 5 overall pick, will duke it out with a former No. 1 overall pick to be the team’s starting signal caller. Tim Tebow is also on the depth chart, though he is considered to be the fourth quarterback at this time.

If Murray ever finds himself homesick, he turn to Miles Austin for some familiarity. Austin, of course, isn’t the same sort of impact player Murray is at this stage of his career, but he had a decent bounce-back season in Cleveland last year. In 2014, Austin caught 47 balls for 568 yards and two touchdowns in 12 games. The 30-year-old has racked up 348 catches for more than 5,000 yards during his nine-year NFL career, earning a pair of Pro Bowl nods during his time with the Cowboys. Of course, he has also missed a ton of time due to injuries in recent years.

After some offseason deliberations between offers from the Eagles and Giants, linebacker Brandon Graham ultimately opted to remain in Philly. In February, Graham was said to be seeking a four-year deal in the neighborhood of $30MM, with $20MM in guaranteed money. Ultimately, he settled for less, but still got $14MM guaranteed on a $26MM pact. The 21-year-old recorded 5.5 sacks and 46 total tackles in 2014. The former first-round choice has moved around a bit in the front seven over the years, having seen time at defensive tackle, defensive end, and outside linebacker. Last season, he played the bulk of his snaps at outside linebacker and enjoyed his best season to date. The advanced metrics at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) placed him as the third best OLB in a 3-4 set last season. PFF was also high on Graham in 2013, ranking him as the 15th best outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme.

Notable losses:

The Eagles and Evan Mathis were wrestling over a contract dispute all offseason long until the situation reached a rather surprising conclusion. Many expected that Mathis and the Eagles would eventually reach a compromise or that the guard would find a suitable trade after he was given permission to seek one out. Instead, the Eagles simply decided to cut Mathis loose in June. Mathis, of course, is considered one of the league’s best guards. In 2014, despite playing just 608 offensive snaps, the former third-round pick ranked as the league’s best left guard, performing particularly well as a run blocker, according to Pro Football Focus’ data (subscription required). PFF had previously graded Mathis as the NFL’s No. 1 guard in 2011, 2012, and 2013. The veteran continues to look for his next NFL home.

We may never know the real inner workings of the negotiations between Jeremy Maclin and the Eagles, but it didn’t seem like Philly put up much of a fight to retain him in March. Maclin, coming off a breakout season in which he caught 85 passes for more than 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns, was quickly scooped up by the Chiefs, who gave him a five-year, $55MM deal with $22.5MM fully guaranteed.

Despite initially engaging in discussions to keep him around on a reworked contract, the Eagles opted to part ways with Trent Cole in early March. Cole, 32, was a fixture on the Eagles’ defense since being selected by the club in the fifth round of the 2005 draft. During his 10 years in Philadelphia, Cole played 155 games (145 starts), racking up 85.5 sacks, 569 tackles, and 19 forced fumbles. However, after posting six consecutive seasons with eight or more sacks from 2006 to 2011, Cole’s production fell off — he has recorded just 17.5 sacks since 2012. Cole eventually wound up hooking on with the Colts on a two-year, $16MM deal with $8MM guaranteed. Graham will now be counted on to supply the production in Cole’s absence.

Byron Maxwell came east to join the Eagles and Cary Williams switched places with him, joining the Legion of Boom in Seattle. The 30-year-old Williams started all 16 games in each of the past three seasons but he was probably miscast as a No. 1 corner with the Eagles. Williams can earn $18MM over three seasons on his new deal with the Seahawks and he won’t have to pay state income tax either.

Nate Allen started 15 games for the Eagles last season at safety, racking up 62 tackles, four interceptions, three fumble recoveries, five pass deflections, and a sack. Allen had a pretty solid year in 2014, finishing out with a 3.9 overall grade according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), good for 28th out of 87 qualified safeties. Still, as expected, the Eagles let him go in free agency.

Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rated Bradley Fletcher as the 92nd best cornerback last season out of 108 qualified players at the position. That doesn’t make Fletcher sound like much of a corner, but was much better in 2013 when he ranked 44th out of 110 players at the position. The Eagles didn’t have the patience to find out of he could get back to his old form, but the Pats decided to roll the dice.

Long before Mathis was shown the door, the Eagles did the same with fellow offensive lineman Todd Herremans. Over the course of the last decade, the 10-year veteran has appeared in 127 games for the Eagles, starting 124 of them at every spot besides center on the offensive line. In recent years, Herremans had served as Philadelphia’s right guard or right tackle, though his 2014 campaign came to an early end due to a biceps injury.

Extensions and restructures:

DeMeco Ryans’ 2014 season came to an early end when he suffered a torn Achilles and landed on the injured reserve list. In the eight games he played for the Eagles, he logged 45 tackles, recovered a fumble, and grabbed an interception. Ryans saw his deal extended by one season, even though the Eagles didn’t seem to necessarily need him in the wake of one of their biggest offseason moves. Ryans’ 2014 season came to an early end when he suffered a torn Achilles and landed on the injured reserve list. In the eight games he played for the Eagles, he logged 45 tackles, recovered a fumble, and grabbed an interception.

Trades:

  • Acquired LB Kiko Alonso from the Bills in exchange for RB LeSean McCoy.
  • Acquired QB Sam Bradford and a 2015 fifth-round pick from the Rams in exchange for QB Nick Foles, a 2015 fourth-round pick, and a 2016 second-round pick. Eagles will acquire a 2016 fourth-round pick if Bradford plays less than 50% of Philadelphia’s snaps in 2015, or a 2016 third-round pick if Bradford doesn’t play at all in 2015 due to injury.
  • Acquired a 2015 second-round pick (No. 47; DB Eric Rowe) and a 2015 sixth-round pick (No. 191; CB JaCorey Shepherd) from the Dolphins in exchange for a 2015 second-round pick (No. 52; DT Jordan Phillips), a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 145; CB Bobby McCain), and a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 156; CB Tony Lippett).
  • Acquired a 2016 third-round pick from the Lions in exchange for a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 113; DT Gabe Wright).

The trade of star running back LeSean McCoy to the Bills for linebacker Kiko Alonso will go down as one of the most surprising moves of the 2015 offseason and also as the trade that nearly broke PFR. There were rumblings of discord between Kelly and McCoy, but few saw a deal like this coming.

McCoy was not the electrifying playmaker in 2014 that he was in 2013 but he still had a very productive season in terms of traditional stats, with 1,319 rushing yards and a 4.2 YPC average. The advanced metrics, meanwhile, show a much sharper contrast between the two campaigns. In 2013, McCoy was rated as the very best tailback in football according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), racking up a 27.3 overall rating which was more than 8 points higher than the runner-up, Jamaal Charles. In 2014, however, McCoy was near the bottom of all qualified tailbacks with a fairly terrible -9.3 grade thanks in large part to his poor showing in the passing game.

Alonso, 25 in August, didn’t see the field in 2014 after tearing his ACL in July of 2014. After being selected in the second round of the 2013 draft, Alonso finished second in voting for Defensive Rookie of the Year after totaling 87 tackles, four interceptions, and two sacks. PFF (subscription required) rated Alonso as the ninth-best inside linebacker in the NFL in his rookie season. Because Alonso spent the year on the NFI (non-football injury) list, he’ll only be a restricted free agent after 2016. He’s also significantly cheaper than McCoy, which gave Kelly some additional breathing room this spring.

Right around the start of free agency, the Eagles shipped Nick Foles to the Rams in exchange for former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford. Surprisingly, it was the Eagles who gave up more in draft compensation to make the swap happen. Foles had his 2014 season ended prematurely by a collar bone injury, but he’s not that far removed from his impressive 2013 run. Bradford, of course, has battled injuries over the past two seasons, including an ACL injury that forced him to miss the entire 2014 season. In his last full season, the former first-overall pick threw for 3,702 yards, 21 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. During that 2012 campaign, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked Bradford 21st among 38 quarterback candidates. Soon after, it was rumored that the Eagles were dangling Bradford in an effort trade up to the No. 2 pick to grab Oregon star Marcus Mariota. Ultimately, the Titans stood pat and the Eagles are now set to roll with either Sanchez or Bradford as their No. 1 QB. The Eagles are reportedly considering an extension with Bradford as well.

Draft picks:

  • 1-20: Nelson Agholor, WR (USC): Signed
  • 2-47: Eric Rowe, CB (Utah): Signed
  • 3-84: Jordan Hicks, ILB (Texas): Signed
  • 6-191: JaCorey Shepherd, CB (Kansas): Signed
  • 6-196: Randall Evans, CB (Kansas State): Signed
  • 7-237: Brian Mihalik, DE (Boston College): Signed

Nelson Agholor was a fast riser in the draft and he found his way up to No. 20 where the Eagles were selecting. The 6’0″ USC product has drawn comparisons to Jeremy Maclin for his sharp route running and also has pretty advanced hands. Agholor could prove to be a major weapon for whomever is under center for the Eagles in 2015 and also figures to make an impact in the return game.

Other:

  • Announced new front office roles for Chip Kelly and Howie Roseman, with Kelly taking over the club’s personnel department.
  • Promoted Ed Marynowitz to vice president of player personnel.
  • Exercised 2016 fifth-year option for DE Fletcher Cox ($7.799MM).
  • Rescinded RFA tender to RB Chris Polk.
  • Signed nine players to reserve/futures contracts.
  • Signed 16 undrafted rookie free agents following the draft.

In January it was announced that Howie Roseman would be elevated to the role of executive vice president of football operations with Kelly now officially overseeing the player personnel department. Of course, the term “elevated” isn’t 100% accurate with Kelly having final say over everything regarding the roster. Ed Marynowitz was promoted from assistant director of player personnel to the team’s vice president of player personnel. For what it’s worth, he says that everyone’s roles are well defined.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Sam Bradford, QB: $12,985,000
  2. Jason Peters, LT: $9,050,000
  3. Byron Maxwell, CB: $8,700,000
  4. Connor Barwin, OLB: $7,000,000
  5. Brandon Graham, OLB: $6,000,000
  6. Malcolm Jenkins, S: $5,666,666
  7. Lane Johnson, RT: $5,225,974
  8. DeMarco Murray, RB: $5,000,000
  9. Brent Celek, TE: $4,800,000
  10. Riley Cooper, WR: $4,800,000

Crazy? Genius? Both? We can’t wait to find out.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

Community Tailgate: 7/6/2015

July 6th, 2015 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

We’re still more than two months away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Earlier this summer, we launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

The topic of the day in the NFL world has been the fallout from Jason Pierre-Paul‘s fireworks accident over the weekend, which resulted in a hand injury for the star defensive end. The severity of that injury isn’t yet known, though various reports have revealed a few details — JPP reportedly burned the flesh off his hand and fingertips, and has been in the hospital for two days. However, his injuries aren’t believed to be career-threatening, and he isn’t expected to lose any fingers.

The Giants know enough about the incident to have pulled a $60MM contract offer for Pierre-Paul off the table, according to a report today from NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport. While the injury clearly plays a significant part in that decision, the poor judgment Pierre-Paul showed in putting himself in such a position probably factored into the move as well.

With a long-term offer for JPP not currently on the table, it looks increasingly likely that he’ll have to accept his one-year franchise tender and play out the 2015 season on that deal. The 26-year-old may also forfeit some pay if he has to spend time on the non-football injury list. Earlier this afternoon, I laid out a few potential scenarios for Pierre-Paul and the Giants, with the July 15 deadline for a multiyear contract looming large.

Since we don’t have many definitive details on Pierre-Paul’s injury yet, it’s hard to definitively say one way or the other how the Giants should handle the situation. Still, let’s say what we’ve heard so far is accurate, and the injury isn’t career-threatening, but could force the pass rusher to miss some time this season.

How should the Giants handle Pierre-Paul’s contract situation? Do you think this is an opportunity for the team to buy low and pursue a multiyear extension at a reduced rate? Should they simply play it safe and let JPP sign his one-year tender? Or would you remove his $14.813MM franchise tag altogether, trying to re-sign him at a lesser rate while risking the possibility of losing him to another team?

Weigh in below with your thoughts and opinions in the comment section. We’re looking forward to hearing what you have to say!

Scenarios For Jason Pierre-Paul, Giants

July 6th, 2015 at 12:16pm CST by Luke Adams

The Giants have yet to release an official statement on the injuries sustained by Jason Pierre-Paul over the weekend due to a fireworks mishap. Reports so far have indicated that Pierre-Paul’s career shouldn’t be in jeopardy, and he may still play this season. However, as Jordan Raanan of NJ.com writes, the hand injury is serious enough that JPP still remains in the hospital about 36 hours or so after the accident occurred.

Raanan notes in his piece that Pierre-Paul’s long-term health trumps the football aspect of the injury at this point, and the Giants are concentrating on their player’s health and mental well-being for now. Still, considering Pierre-Paul isn’t technically under contract at this point, the injury has the potential to have a significant impact on his upcoming deal, so the situation is worth a closer look. If the injury is determined not to be as serious as initially feared, it shouldn’t hugely reduce JPP’s potential earnings, but he certainly has less leverage today than he did last week.

Here’s where the contract situation currently stands: Pierre-Paul received the franchise tag from the Giants earlier this offseason, meaning the team automatically offered him a one-year, $14.813MM contract for 2015. Because the standout defensive end didn’t immediately sign that tender, he remains a free agent, and could sign an offer sheet with another team at any time. However, any interested club would have to part with two first-round picks to land him, so that possibility is minuscule. The most likely scenarios for Pierre-Paul, prior to the injury, were either playing out the 2015 season on his one-year franchise tag or reaching a multiyear contract agreement with the Giants by the July 15 deadline.

Before word of Pierre-Paul’s injury broke, I expected the two sides to ramp up negotiations in the next week or so before ultimately agreeing to terms on a long-term extension by next Wednesday. That could still happen, but the hand injury clouds the situation a little. Here are the various scenarios that we could see play out in the coming weeks:

  1. Pierre-Paul, Giants reach long-term contract agreement: As noted above, this remains a possible outcome. Perhaps JPP would have to accept a minor discount, but if his recovery timetable ends up being measured in weeks or months rather than years, his overall value shouldn’t be too diminished.
  2. Pierre-Paul signs franchise tender: As long as the franchise tender remains on the table, Pierre-Paul can sign it and assure himself a $14MM+ salary for 2015, perhaps electing to revisit discussions on a longer-team deal after the season. Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk observes that, because of the injury, a clause in the CBA would allow the Giants to terminate JPP’s contract and avoid paying him any of that $14MM+ salary, but that would mean making him an unrestricted free agent, which the Giants likely won’t be eager to do.
  3. Giants withdraw franchise tender: If the Giants were to withdraw JPP’s franchise tender before he signed it, they could attempt to negotiate a new deal with him at a lesser rate. But withdrawing that franchise tag would also allow the 26-year-old the freedom to sign anywhere, so the Giants would be taking a huge risk. There are still plenty of teams with a healthy amount of cap room who would be very interested in pursuing this sort of player if he were an unrestricted free agent.
  4. Giants place Pierre-Paul on non-football injury list: Another scenario detailed by Florio, this looks to me like the most probable outcome, whether or not the veteran pass rusher and the team reach a multiyear agreement. Because JPP sustained the injury while he was away from the Giants, the club would have the option to place him on the non-football injury list and not pay him until he recovers. Pierre-Paul and the NFLPA could try to fight the move, but their case would require medical evidence to show that the former first-rounder is healthy, and based on what we’ve heard over the last couple days, it doesn’t sound like that hand will fully heal anytime soon.

We’ll have to wait for official word on Pierre-Paul’s injury to know exactly how important a factor it will be in contract negotiations between the Giants and their franchise-tagged player. But for now, it’s hard to imagine the team committing a huge chunk of guaranteed money to JPP.

Offseason In Review: Miami Dolphins

July 6th, 2015 at 8:57am CST by Rob DiRe

After being a staple in the playoffs for roughly the entire history of the franchise, the Dolphins have only one playoff appearance since 2001, including six consecutive seasons without a winning record. It finally feels like the Dolphins have the quarterback in place to make a run at the division – and it doesn’t hurt that their biggest competition might be missing theirs – and their offseason centered around winning the Ndamukong Suh sweepstakes. However, Miami did much more than just that to put itself in a position to make a run at the playoffs, and the team might not be finished just yet.

Notable signings:

The numbers speak for themselves: Six years, $114.375MM. $59.955MM guaranteed. LeBron James makes it hard to say that Suh is hand down the biggest free agent South Beach ever drew, and Giancarlo Stanton’s contract overshadows Suh’s, but the Dolphins made a very large move for a very large man. No matter which direction this team goes, Suh will get the lion’s share of the credit (or blame), at least on the defensive side of the ball. His detractors will note that he isn’t as good as J.J. Watt, but you could argue Suh is the best player to hit free agency in the prime of his career since Reggie White, and he got paid like it.

It’s a big gamble to devote that many precious cap dollars to one player, but Suh is a true difference maker on the defensive line. He’s a stout run defender, and he’s among the best in the league at rushing the passer from the interior — he has the talent to live up to that massive contract.

Suh wasn’t the only defensive tackle the Dolphins added. They also signed his former Lions’ teammate C.J. Mosley, who was thought by many to be a lock to return to Detroit in an increased role. Instead, Mosley should provide cheap insurance for the Dolphins in case Suh misses time, and he should also fit nicely in a rotation that can’t afford to be that deep with all the resources devoted to Suh. The team also spent a second-round pick on one of the top college nose tackles, but we’ll get to that later.

The Dolphins traded Mike Wallace and replaced him with veteran Greg Jennings. Charles Clay signed an offer sheet with the Bills and the Dolphins declined to match the offer, instead signing Jordan Cameron as a replacement. The club also took a flier on LaMichael James to complement Lamar Miller, in the role Knowshon Moreno was supposed to fill before going down with injury last year.

In addition to the holes they made sure to fill, the Dolphins also added J.D. Walton and Jason Fox along the offensive line. Both players are likely to provide depth, each bringing six years of NFL experience that could prove extremely helpful considering the recent struggles along the offensive line. Louis Delmas, Brice McCain, and Zackary Bowman should all provide similar depth along a thin defensive backfield, and if all goes right they should see the field plenty with a chance to have an impact.

One more notable name Miami brought in was Josh Freeman, who may have a chance to stick on the roster if he has a strong preseason and flashes the upside that made him a first-round pick to begin with. However, keeping Matt Moore in the fold was much more important, as he’s considered to be a high-end backup capable of steering the ship in the event of an unfortunate injury to Ryan Tannehill.

Notable losses:

A number of the Dolphins’ offseason losses were either expected or at least left the team indifferent, such as Philip Wheeler, Daniel Thomas, Shelley Smith, Brian Hartline, Brandon Gibson, Nate Garner, Cortland Finnegan, and Daryn Colledge, all of whom had struggled. Miami appeared happy to move on from them, and that’s a good thing, considering an 8-8 team that spent so much in free agency usually would have to part with much better players to stay under the cap.

Still, the team was forced to let go of a number of players who were still making an impact, and chief among them is Jared Odrick. Odrick was still playing at a high level, and was rewarded with a big contract of his own with the Jaguars. Suh is definitely an upgrade, but Odrick had played well in Miami for years and the decision not to re-sign him is the cost of doing business. Randy Starks is another defensive tackle who has been a staple of the Dolphins defense, but the team decided to go younger at the position behind Suh.

After that, Jimmy Wilson, R.J. Stanford, Jason Trusnik, and Jonathan Freeny are all usable players, but since they’re more or less replacement level, the Dolphins could afford to let them leave during the offseason in order to throw their resources elsewhere on the roster.

Extensions and restructures:

Tannehill is the spiritual brother to Suh on the Dolphins, in that the team’s success will be directly linked to how he plays as far as the public is concerned. He could complete 65% of his passes with 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, but if the Dolphins don’t make the postseason, Tannehill won’t get the respect as one of the rising stars in the league. Considering the blowback when he signed his deal, coming off a season where he completed 66% of his passes for 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, Dolphins’ fans are ready for a postseason berth.

Luckily for Tannehill, he should have the best offensive line in front of him he has had yet in his career, starting with the newly-extended Mike Pouncey, who signed a deal to keep him with the team through 2020. Pouncey will look to lead an offensive line that returns last year’s big free agent signing Branden Albert and last year’s first-round pick Ja’Wuan James, along with a pair of young guards, to keep Tannehill upright and run the ball effectively again.

Trades:

  • Acquired WR Kenny Stills from the Saints in exchange for LB Dannell Ellerbe and a 2015 third-round pick.
  • Acquired a 2015 fifth-round pick from the Vikings in exchange for WR Mike Wallace.
  • Acquired a 2015 second-round pick (No. 52; DT Jordan Phillips), a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 145; CB Bobby McCain), and a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 156; CB Tony Lippett) from the Eagles in exchange for a 2015 second-round pick (No. 47; DB Eric Rowe) and a 2015 sixth-round pick (No. 191; CB JaCorey Shepherd).

Trading Wallace isn’t going to hurt too much, as he was scapegoated for many of Tannehill’s struggles with the deep ball, and the team hedged against it by trading for Kenny Stills, who was one of the best in the league at hauling in deep passes during his time with Drew Brees. Getting rid of Ellerbe in the deal justifies the high price paid for Stills, and is the closest thing seen in the NFL to the NBA version of using draft picks to sweeten a salary dump.

Moving down five spots in the draft doesn’t seem like as big a move, but the two cornerbacks chosen with the fifth-round picks could go a long way to rebuilding a defensive backfield the team could have trouble filling out with all the money devoted to the defensive line and pass rushers.

Draft picks:

  • 1-14: DeVante Parker, WR (Louisville): Signed
  • 2-52: Jordan Phillips, DT (Oklahoma): Signed
  • 4-114: Jamil Douglas, G (Arizona State): Signed
  • 5-145: Bobby McCain, CB (Memphis): Signed
  • 5-149: Jay Ajayi, RB (Boise State): Signed
  • 5-150: Ced Thompson, S (Minnesota): Signed
  • 5-156: Tony Lippett, CB (Michigan State): Signed

DeVante Parker should quickly rise in the pecking order on offense, and if Stills comes through as a major deep threat but not much more, it shouldn’t be long before Parker emerges as the No. 1 wideout in Miami. Jennings may play that role early on, but he’s in the twilight of his career, and while he adds veteran value, it seems awfully optimistic to expect an 80-catch season at this stage of his career.

The more interesting selection came in round two, where the 6’5″, 329-pound Jordan Phillips comes in with an NFL-ready body who could plug in at nose tackle from day one and eat up blocks on the inside. He gives the Dolphins some flexibility with where to play Suh along the defensive line, allowing him to bump out in certain situations.

Jamil Douglas, a fourth-round pick, could be the starter at guard as a rookie, slotting in between Pro Bowlers Pouncey and Albert to ease his transition into the NFL. After that, the team was smart to take three depth pieces for the defensive backfield and an NFL-ready running back in Jay Ajayi, who was lauded for his abilities to run, catch, and block, even if his knees were red flag enough to drop him to the fifth round with the stigma that he may not survive until his second contract.

Other:

  • Hired Mike Tannenbaum as executive VP of football operations.
  • Learned DE Dion Jordan would be suspended for the entire 2015 season.
  • Claimed OL Donald Hawkins off waivers from the Cowboys.
  • Signed six players to reserve/futures contracts
  • Signed 16 undrafted rookie free agents following the draft.

The most disappointing part of the offseason was learning that Dion Jordan would be suspended for the entire year. The Dolphins may have already given up on Jordan before last season, as they’ve reportedly tried to trade him multiple times and have either come up with no suitors or asked for too high a return. The former third overall pick missed six games due to a suspension last year, and continues to disappoint the organization and fan base that invested so much in him.

The biggest indictment on Jordan is that with Chip Kelly making personnel decisions in Philadelphia, even he wouldn’t pony up a little something for the former Oregon Duck, when it seems like the Dolphins would have given him away at a bargain rate. Even off the field, Jordan continues to be a headache for the team, and it’s not as if he was producing at a high level the few times he was playing.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Branden Albert, LT: $10,725,000
  2. Cameron Wake, DE: $10,450,000
  3. Brent Grimes, CB: $10,000,000
  4. Reshad Jones, S: $7,712,942
  5. Mike Pouncey, C: $7,000,000
  6. Mike Wallace, WR: $6,600,000 (dead money)
  7. Dannell Ellerbe, LB: $6,400,000 (dead money)
  8. Ndamukong Suh, DT: $6,100,000
  9. Ryan Tannehill, QB: $4,873,364
  10. Dion Jordan, DE/OLB: $4,682,276

The running theme of the offseason ran through the two big contracts, one for Suh and one for Tannehill. With the commitments made to those two this offseason, the Dolphins have made them the faces of the defense and offense, respectively.

Around the two stars, the team’s plan has for the most part been throwing a lot of things at the wall and hoping they stick. They should be commended for recognizing weaknesses at offensive line and defensive back, and throwing a lot of assets at those spots. However, the dangers of giving big contracts to two players can be seen in that strategy. While the team added and added to both position groups, they did so mostly with middling free agents and low-round draft picks. Hoping that one or two of these players turns into something more than a replacement-level player is a gamble, especially if the coaching staff struggles with player development.

Miami added some high-upside players early in the draft, but even those guys will grab minimal headlines early in their career. Come December, the Dolphins will either be in the playoff hunt or they won’t, and whether they are or not will likely fall on the shoulders of their two big stars.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

PFR Originals: 6/29/15 – 7/5/15

July 5th, 2015 at 6:19pm CST by Rob DiRe

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • Pro Football Rumors’ Offseason in Review series kicked off this week starting with a pair of AFC East teams. Zach Links opened the series by digging through an exciting New York Jets’ offseason and Connor Byrne went on a deep dive with the Buffalo Bills, who made a few big moves of their own, chief among them in hiring former Jets head coach Rex Ryan.
  • The ongoing saga of Michael Bennett in Seattle peaked the interest of our own Dallas Robinson, who examined the back-and-forth nature of the situation. Bennett took less money a year ago when he signed a four-year contract to remain with the team, and curiously has been vocal about being underpaid throughout this offseason. Dallas comes to the same conclusion I did: Bennett is definitely underpaid but at this point, but it’s too late to do anything about it and it’s probably his own fault anyway.
  • After Andrew Quarless was arrested, it seemed like a countdown clock started ticking until when he was either suspended by the league or released outright by the Packers. I took a look at some possible replacements for the team at tight end, and there isn’t much out there, so I’m forecasting a much bigger role for second-year player Richard Rodgers.
  • Luke continued looking into the salary-cap numbers division-by-division, this time highlighting the largest 2015 cap numbers for the AFC North, NFC North, and NFC South.
  • Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson isn’t the only member of the team in line for a big payday, and Sam Robinson looks into the possibility of an extension for linebacker Bobby Wagner. Rory Parks examined the extension candidacy of another top-flight defender in Washington’s Ryan Kerrigan, predicting he could get a contract that will pay him more than what Pernell McPhee received in free agency this past offseason.
  • A number of veteran players will be released between now and the start of the NFL season, and Dallas continues his look at those candidates for release, this time focusing on the NFC East.
  • In the wake of the slew of suspensions handed down in the news dump before July 4th for substance-abuse violations, Luke posed the question of which suspension would be most impactful on the field in our latest PFR Poll. Antonio Gates just edged out Sheldon Richardson and Rolando McClain to take the ignominious title.
  • Our Community Tailgate series continued on with new topics this week and providing a forum for discussion. The subjects covered by Luke and Zach:
    • McClain’s chances at rebounding from his most recent suspension (link)
    • Brett Favre‘s hypothetical comeback (link)
    • Predicting the AFC East champion (link)
    • Eli Manning‘s next contract (link)

Potential Replacements For Andrew Quarless

July 5th, 2015 at 2:04pm CST by Rob DiRe

With starting tight end Andrew Quarless dealing with the aftermath of being arrested early on July 4th, the Packers could be missing a key member of their offense in 2015, either due to suspension or release.

Quarless was arrested after firing a weapon in public while in Miami yesterday morning. The team released a statement on their official website, noting they will not make any decisions until they have more information.

“We are aware of the matter involving Andrew Quarless and are in the process of gathering more information. We will withhold further comment.”

More information seems more likely to hurt Quarless than help him, and many fans and pundits expect his release. He is in the second year of a two-year deal that he signed last offseason, and is due a base salary of $1.3MM plus roster and workout bonuses.

Although he was a starter, he caught only 29 passes for 323 yards last season, and has career totals of only 85 catches and 909 yards in his four years with the team. Still, whether Aaron Rodgers needs big production from tight end or not, losing a starter is rarely a good thing, and he will need to be replaced.

If they choose to look to free agency, Jermaine Gresham remains available as one of the best overall players on the market. He should be easy to sign on a short-term deal, and has experience both as a pass catcher and blocker as a former first-round pick in Cincinnati.

The 6’6″ Gresham has had consistent production since coming out of Oklahoma has a big-time playmaker at the position. His numbers came in between 45 and 65 catches each of his professional seasons, catching between four and six touchdowns each year. While those numbers were underwhelming considering his hype coming out of college, he was a reliable option for Andy Dalton, and could thrive in the Green Bay offense.

Zach Miller, formerly of the Seahawks, could also be a relatively cheap option, but after Gresham the market is weak for tight ends. Miller is entering his age-30 season, and hasn’t produced much of anything since leaving Oakland for Seattle in 2011. He missed most of the 2014 season with an ankle injury, but is not the player he once was even if he gets healthy.

Besides Gresham and maybe Miller, the list of available players at the position (courtesy of Spotrac.com) is full of uninspiring choices who either have no history of producing on the field or a long gap since the last time they were effective players.

Signing or trading for an impact player at the position is out of character for the Packers and general manager Ted Thompson anyway. The most likely scenario is an upgrade in role for second-year tight end Richard Rodgers, who caught 20 passes for the team in 2014. They also drafted Kennard Backman in the sixth round, who could see some action in a backup role.

Either way, smart money says it will not be Quarless catching passes in Green Bay this coming season.

Extension Candidate: Bobby Wagner

July 4th, 2015 at 8:06pm CST by Sam Robinson

Compiling arguably the best collection of drafts throughout the decade, the Seahawks have been proactive in keeping their cornerstone players together. This offseason elevates the two-time reigning NFC champions’ investment stakes to another level, obviously, with Russell Wilson‘s contract now the centerpiece of the NFL financial dialogue.

But Seattle’s lurking decision rests on defense, with Bobby Wagner entering his walk year. The Seahawks have an incredibly rare contingent of All-Pros, Pro Bowlers and other upper-echelon contributors that weren’t selected in the first round, so they in a sense face expedited timelines on players like Wilson and Wagner, just as they did on Richard Sherman last summer without the luxury of the fifth-year option safety net. In Wilson’s case, the debate on whether he’s enabled the Seahawks or vice versa wages on, but Wagner’s been a similar boon for the Hawks’ defense and will command a contract that could eclipse all inside linebackers if he enters free agency next March.

Wagner, though, does not play a position that possesses the value that Sherman’s or, obviously, Wilson’s do, so his second contract will be a more reasonable accord than what Wilson’s reportedly seeking. But with a resume that now includes first-team All-Pro, for a 2014 regular season that featured Wagner playing only 11 games, the 2012 second-round pick will receive a massive contract from either the Seahawks or a suitor desperate to pry a top-flight Seattle defender away from the figurative factory in the pacific northwest.Feb 1, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Seattle Seahawks middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (54) celebrates after his interception against the New England Patriots during the third quarter in Super Bowl XLIX at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

In April, it was reported Wagner could command a deal north of $8MM per year, but that figure rose to around $10MM by June. The latter report from CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora indicates the Seahawks and Wagner are closer to an agreement than Wilson is with the team he piloted to two Super Bowls, so the odds of Wagner surpassing Brian Cushing, Lawrence Timmons (league-high $9.6MM per-year average for inside linebackers) and NaVorro Bowman to become the highest-paid inside backer have increased. Wagner’s pact would also be a breakthrough for 4-3 middle linebackers, with the bulk of the highest-paid second-level insiders coming from 3-4 defenses. James Laurinaitis‘ $8.3MM-per-year average with the Rams represents the only 4-3 backer currently in the top 5 among contract values, with Daryl Washington‘s potentially tenuous deal rounding out the quintet.

Entering his age-25 season, Wagner will undoubtedly ascend into this tax bracket soon, be it on an extension, the accepting of another team’s offer, or playing on the franchise tag — which treats all linebacking spots the same and paid $13.2MM to second-level cogs in 2015 — in an unlikely scenario.

The Seahawks’ defense molded back into an elite force once Wagner recovered from his turf toe injury last season, and the team slapped together a menacing eight-game win streak as a result en route to another NFC title. Wagner still cleared the 100-tackle plateau, helped elevate Seattle back to a top-2 perch in terms of DVOA for the third straight season and, in a strange show of respect considering Aaron Rodgers and J.J. Watt had seemingly more dominant slates, earned an MVP vote from Tony Dungy. Pro Football Focus has also bestowed two top-5 positional finishes (subscription required) on Wagner, for his 2012 (second) and ’14 work (fifth), respectively.

Barring a season-altering injury, Wagner’s value appears pretty clear. But the Seahawks keeping their latest defensive stalwart comes down to a few factors.

One being that while Seattle does a masterful job at keeping its own talent after extending Thomas, Sherman and Kam Chancellor in a span of 13 months, it may not be able to house that many highly paid players. Joining that trio as top-10 players in terms of overall contract value are Marshawn Lynch, who is not a homegrown performer but definitely a home-enhanced one, Jimmy Graham, left tackle Russell Okung and outside backer K.J. Wright, who quietly signed a $6.7MM-per-year extension last December.

That quartet is attached to contracts worth the second-, first-, 10th- and second-most money in terms of average per year at their respective positions, according to OverTheCap. And defensive ends Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett, PFF’s second-best 4-3 end last year and a player who is already displeased with the deal he signed in March 2014, are banking $7MM per year and in the top 15 highest-paid performers at their position.

Seattle’s currently able to get away with these allotments to its top athletes since it’s paying mostly rookie-deal money to its offensive front and after freeing itself from the Percy Harvin contract, doesn’t have a wideout making more than $4.5MM per year. Of course, the main reason the Seahawks have kept this core together and were able to take on the No. 1 tight end contract is because they don’t have an upper-echelon quarterback salary anchoring their payroll.

Might Wagner be the one who suffers from Wilson being paid his due? Seattle has the 10th-most salary cap room in 2016 at $38.01MM, but that figure includes the following starters with expired deals: Wilson, Wagner, Okung, Brandon Mebane, Tony McDaniel, Jermaine Kearse, Bruce Irvin, J.R. Sweezy and Alvin Bailey. Wilson and Wagner are the highest priorities among this group, but their deals could flood the aforementioned free agent fund and induce potential cuts to other starters, especially if the franchise tag is involved.

Beyond Wilson’s potentially historic demands overshadowing Wagner’s extension talks, do the Seahawks believe Wagner is irreplaceable, or can they get by without him as they believe they can after allowing Byron Maxwell to hit the market? Unlike at cornerback where the team churns out able bodies, the Seahawks don’t really have much depth behind Wagner, with only UDFA Brock Coyle present. This could strengthen Wagner’s bargaining position, but it’s not like a top-tier middle backer is a must-have for contenders, as nickel has become the new base. The Broncos managed to make the Super Bowl with former XFL cog Paris Lenon starting there, while the Patriots won the title mostly without Jerod Mayo‘s services.

Wagner is a three-down linebacker who does well in coverage, and those aren’t the easiest to replace, however. Of the 11 spots on the first-team All-Pro squads during the 2010s, former first-round talents occupied seven of them, and of PFF’s annual top-5 backers during the decade, 14 of those slots went to ex-first-rounders. So while teams shy away from spending prime draft capital on inside backers, affecting the position’s value, the franchises who have done this have largely reaped rewards in recent years.

The Seahawks have shown a sublime track record at drafting stars, and a future featuring a potential $20MM-per-year salary to Wilson and $10MM/AAV to Wagner will potentially force cuts to key players in the next couple of years and further place a premium on extracting supreme value from first-contract performers. Because if the Seahawks can somehow make that work without suffering mightily at their lesser-compensated positions, they’ve figured out a way to establish long-term success without earning a heartless reputation the Patriots have regarding paying their own talent.

Judging by the reports coming out of Seattle, there is enough to indicate the Seahawks are serious in their efforts to keep Wagner at their defensive forefront. That will affect the ancillary talents that also are up for new contracts, but with the Seahawks’ draft-and-develop track record, paying Wilson and Wagner while starting over at certain spots may be a worthy gamble.

Photo courtesy USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Buffalo Bills

July 4th, 2015 at 5:46pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Fresh off their first winning campaign since 2004, the Bills’ offseason began with unexpected departures at head coach and quarterback. New owners Terry and Kim Pegula reacted to those exits by flexing their financial muscle in upgrading both the coaching staff and the roster. Thanks to the myriad changes the Bills have undergone from the top down, enthusiasm is in no short supply for their success-starved fans – who purchased a franchise-record 57,500 season tickets in hopes of witnessing the team end its 15-year playoff drought (an NFL worst) in 2015.

Notable signings:

The Bills set out to improve their offense via free agency after finishing 26th in the league in yardage in 2014. Their first move was to to sign guard Richie Incognito in an attempt to repair a horrible offensive line. Incognito sat out the lion’s share of 2013 and all of ’14 because of unbecoming off-field conduct with the Dolphins. To his credit, the 31-year-old was a solid lineman prior to his short-term ouster from the sport, and he shouldn’t have much trouble serving as an upgrade over the dreadful guard play Buffalo received last season.

Accompanying Incognito are a couple more familiar faces from the AFC East: ex-Dolphins tight end Charles Clay (Incognito’s former and current teammate) and erstwhile Jets receiver Percy Harvin. The latter’s production hasn’t been much to write home about since his reign as a feared playmaker with the Vikings from 2009-12 ended. Still, the more options the better, and Harvin gives the Bills a field-stretching complement to go with young star Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods – not to mention a potentially dangerous gadget for new offensive coordinator Greg Roman.

As for Clay, the Bills succeeded in stealing him from Miami, which placed the transition tag on the 26-year-old before concluding that a five-year, $38MM offer sheet was too rich for its blood. Clay broke out in 2013 with career highs in receptions (69), yards (759) and touchdowns (six). He followed that with 58 catches last season and ranked as the 14th-best tight end in the league out of 67 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Elsewhere on offense, the Bills are hoping two less-heralded additions (fullback Jerome Felton and quarterback Tyrod Taylor) pay major dividends. The Bills’ questions along the offensive line don’t bode well for their desire to build a dominant running attack, but having another capable blocker in Felton – who contributed somewhat to Adrian Peterson‘s past success – should help. And while the chances of Taylor turning into a viable starting QB after signing for a relative pittance are quite low, his odds of winning the job aren’t bad. In terms of playing style, the 25-year-old is the closest thing the Bills have to the 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick – whom Roman coached in San Francisco. Moreover, the former Raven and Joe Flacco backup has a fan in new Bills coach Rex Ryan.

“I actually tried to trade for [Taylor] when I was with the Jets,” Ryan told Toronto’s SportsNet 590, per ESPN’s Mike Rodak. “I’m not gonna say he’s Russell Wilson, but he’s got a little of that in him, where he’s able to run zone reads and pull the ball down and be effective.”

The Bills don’t know what they’ll get from Taylor, but they’re confident Jerry Hughes will continue as a menacing pass rusher. Otherwise they wouldn’t have re-signed him for $45MM. Hughes, who struggled with the Colts from 2010-12, has flourished in Buffalo since joining the team in a 2013 trade. Hughes tallied 19.5 sacks the last two years while playing both defensive end and linebacker. He’ll work as a linebacker this season and should once again be a double-digit-sack threat in Ryan’s quarterback-attacking scheme.

Notable losses:

Even though he’s not the most talented player they lost during the offseason, the Bills could end up hit hardest by the departure of Kyle Orton, who retired after 10 seasons. The 32-year-old wasn’t exactly stellar last season, his only one with the Bills, but he did eclipse the 3,000-yard mark and toss 18 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. It’s not unreasonable to think those numbers will be superior to the ones the Bills’ QBs put up this year. It’s also not unreasonable to think the team would be in better hands right now with Orton entrenched as the starter entering training camp, as opposed to the oncoming three-man battle among Matt Cassel, EJ Manuel and Taylor. That’s less a statement of praise for Orton than an indictment of Cassel, Manuel and Taylor.

The Bills’ biggest loss as far as name recognition goes is running back C.J. Spiller, whom they let walk in free agency after he totaled just 425 yards (300 rushing, 125 receiving) and one touchdown in nine games last season. Spiller, Buffalo’s top pick in 2010, had moments of brilliance as a Bill but fell short of expectations overall. With LeSean McCoy in the fold, the Bills are unlikely to miss Spiller going forward.

Defensively, the Bills are hoping the losses of linebacker Brandon Spikes and safety Da’Norris Searcy aren’t felt. Spikes played in just 46 percent of snaps last season because of his unreliability in pass coverage, but he’s a fantastic run defender who helped the Bills go from 28th against opposing ground games in 2013 to 11th in his lone season with them. Searcy turned a breakout 2014 (65 tackles, three interceptions, two forced fumbles) into a $24MM deal with the Titans. Without Searcy, the Bills are betting they’ll be fine at safety with a duo of Aaron Williams and Corey Graham.

Extensions and restructures:

The Bills’ lone offseason extension went to longtime defensive stalwart Kyle Williams. The four-time Pro Bowler has been a member of the Bills since they drafted him in 2006 and, if he sees his extension through, will be with them for at least three more seasons. Williams is entering his age-33 season but hasn’t shown signs of decline, as Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rated him seventh out of 81 qualifying D-tackles in 2014. He’ll continue to be an integral part of a line that features fellow linchpins Marcell Dareus and Mario Williams.

Trades:

The Bills addressed their anemic ground game in a big way when they acquired McCoy, a three-time Pro Bowler who surpassed the 1,300-yard plateau three times in six years as an Eagle and proved to be one of the league’s premier workhorses during that time span. However, adding McCoy cost the Bills an outstanding linebacker in Kiko Alonso, who burst on the scene as a rookie in 2013 before missing all of last season with a torn ACL.

Obviously, given that Buffalo had an excellent defense last year without Alonso and has terrific, similarly aged LBs in Nigel Bradham and Preston Brown, the team felt losing Alonso permanently was worth what should be a marked upgrade to its offense. One has to wonder, though, if McCoy will be as effective as he was in Philadelphia. The soon-to-be 27-year-old has plenty of tread on his tires, having accrued 300-plus carries in back-to-back seasons and nearly 1,500 during his career, and won’t have the benefit of running behind a top-level offensive line (the Eagles had the best run-blocking O-line in the league last year, according to Pro Football Focus – which ranked the Bills last in the same category).

Distributing the ball to McCoy could be Cassel, an 11th-year man whose play has been woeful since 2010. As a member of the Chiefs that year, Cassel threw 27 touchdowns against a meager seven interceptions, helped lead Kansas City to the playoffs, and made the Pro Bowl. Aside from that season and 2008, when he played well for the Patriots in place of an injured Tom Brady, Cassel has fared poorly as a starter. He was the Vikings’ No. 1 quarterback going into 2014 and had a lousy three-game stretch before suffering a season-ending foot injury. But Buffalo’s hope – if Cassel wins the job – is that surrounding the 33-year-old with a talented cast of playmakers and a fearsome defense will help mask his deficiencies. That better prove true for Cassel’s sake, as Rodak reported last month that he’s not a lock to make the Bills’ roster. An uninspiring summer showing could send him looking for work elsewhere.

Draft picks:

  • 2-50: Ronald Darby, CB (Florida State): Signed
  • 3-81: John Miller, G (Louisville): Signed
  • 5-155: Karlos Williams, RB (Florida State): Signed
  • 6-188: Tony Steward, OLB (Clemson): Signed
  • 6-194: Nick O’Leary, TE (Florida State): Signed
  • 7-234: Dezmin Lewis, WR (Central Arkansas): Signed

Although the Bills had the third-ranked pass defense and sixth-most interceptions in the league last year, that didn’t stop them from using their top pick on Ronald Darby. The ex-Florida State Seminole will join Stephon Gilmore and Leodis McKelvin at the cornerback position and allow the Bills to move Graham to safety. Darby should reach his potential under Ryan, who is an advocate of fast, physical corners capable of handling one-on-one situations. Regarding Darby, Bills general manager Doug Whaley said (per Sal Maiorana of the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle), “He’s physical, not only with the ball carriers, but as a press guy and Rex is a big press guy.” 

Unlike Darby, third-rounder John Miller isn’t entering into an overly promising group of players at his position. Outside of signing Incognito, the Bills didn’t do anything prior to the draft to upgrade at guard. That’s good news for Miller, the leading candidate to start at whichever guard spot Incognito doesn’t occupy. Miller started 47 games at left guard during his career at Louisville and quickly won the favor of his new coach during offseason workouts. “He might be the opening guy there. He’s been very impressive,” Ryan said, according to WGR 550 (audio link).

Other:

Buffalo’s offseason got off to a peculiar start when Doug Marrone opted out of his contract after just two years as its head coach. Marrone went 15-17 during his tenure, including a 9-7 mark in 2014, and hoped to parlay that into another head coaching job elsewhere. His gambit backfired, though, as he ultimately had to settle for an assistant’s role in Jacksonville. The Bills interviewed at least a dozen candidates to succeed Marrone before giving $27.5MM to Ryan, who coached the division-rival Jets from 2009-14 and helped lead two smash-mouth squads to AFC championship games. Ryan is no stranger to less-than-ideal QB situations and he’s inheriting another in Buffalo, where he hopes to mimic his early success with the Jets and win with a team built on a prolific running game and a suffocating defense.

Ryan will attempt to execute his plan with an accomplished offensive coordinator in Roman. The former Niners O-coordinator should acquit himself better than Marrone’s protege, the in-over-his-head Nathaniel Hackett. On the other hand, defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman has a harder act to follow in replacing Jim Schwartz. The Bills finished last season fourth in both yards and points allowed and third in takeaways. They’ll try to match or better that while transitioning from Schwartz’s 4-3 scheme to the 3-4 of Ryan and Thurman. Bear in mind that the Bills operated under a scheme similar to Ryan’s when one of his disciples, Mike Pettine, ran their defense in 2013. That year, they were 10th in yardage surrendered and third in takeaways. So, given that and the talent the defense possesses, Schwartz’s exit shouldn’t prove deleterious.

One of the defenders at the disposal of Ryan and Thurman will be Gilmore. The Bills exercised his fifth-year option, ensuring he’ll be a pillar of their defensive backfield for at least two more seasons. The 2012 first-round pick intercepted a career-best three passes last season and finished an impressive 26th out of 108 qualifying corners in Pro Football Focus’ grading system (subscription required). That was a vast improvement from the previous two years, when he ranked in the 70s.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Mario Williams, DE/OLB: $19,400,000
  2. Marcell Dareus, DT: $8,060,000
  3. Kyle Williams, DL: $6,950,000
  4. Eric Wood, C: $6,650,000
  5. Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB: $6,175,000
  6. LeSean McCoy, RB: $5,500,000
  7. Charles Clay, TE: $5,000,000
  8. Leodis McKelvin, CB: $4,900,000
  9. Matt Cassel, QB: $4,750,000
  10. Sammy Watkins, WR: $4,530,819

On paper, this year’s Bills team is the most talent-rich squad the franchise has had in a long time. The problem is that the game’s foremost position, quarterback, looks primed to weigh them down yet again. They’ve missed the playoffs for the entire 21st century because they’ve gotten nothing from a slew of failed passers. Whether it’s Cassel, Manuel or Taylor, someone has to grab the reins and perform respectably in a game manager role. That would allow the Bills to finally break their playoff drought on the strength of a better coaching staff, a big-name running back and a loaded defense.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

Largest 2015 Cap Hits By Team: NFC South

July 3rd, 2015 at 4:21pm CST by Luke Adams

Before NFL training camps get underway next month, we’ll be taking a closer look at the top 2015 cap hits for teams around the league. We began our series last week by focusing on the NFC East and AFC East divisions, and earlier this week, we looked at the NFC North and AFC North. Today, we’ll head back to the NFC to examine the South division.

Listed below are the top 10 cap hits for the coming season for each of the four NFC South franchises, accompanied by some observations on the spending habits of those clubs. Let’s dive in….

Atlanta Falcons:

  1. Matt Ryan, QB: $19,500,000
  2. Julio Jones, WR: $10,176,000
  3. Roddy White, WR: $5,556,250
  4. William Moore, S: $5,368,750
  5. Paul Soliai, DT: $4,400,000
  6. Jon Asamoah, G: $4,268,750
  7. Justin Blalock, G: $4,120,000 (dead money)
  8. Joe Hawley, C: $4,000,000
  9. Tyson Jackson, DT: $3,850,000
  10. Jake Matthews, LT: $3,733,977
    Total: $64,973,727

Besides Ryan’s substantial cap hit and an eight-digit figure for Jones, which could be reduced if he signs a contract extension this year, the Falcons aren’t carrying a single cap number exceeding $5.56MM in 2015. Overall, Atlanta’s top 10 players account for less than $65MM of the team’s 2015 cap, a very club-friendly total.

Of course, the Falcons are somewhat lacking in star power outside of the players involved in their passing game, so it makes sense that they wouldn’t be too heavily invested at other positions. In recent years, offensive and defensive line play has been one of Atlanta’s shortcomings, and the club’s recent investments at those positions is reflected in this list — Soliai, Asamoah, Jackson, and Matthews have all been added to the roster within the last year and a half.

At $4.12MM, Blalock easily represents the largest dead-money charge on the Falcons’ books, but if he had been retained for the 2015 season, his cap number would have been $7.91MM, third on the team behind Ryan and Jones.

Carolina Panthers:

  1. Charles Johnson, DE: $20,020,000
  2. Cam Newton, QB: $13,000,000
  3. Ryan Kalil, C: $11,795,000
  4. Jonathan Stewart, RB: $8,300,000
  5. Greg Olsen, TE: $6,300,000
  6. Thomas Davis, LB: $5,900,000
  7. DeAngelo Williams, RB: $4,333,333 (dead money)
  8. Luke Kuechly, LB: $4,002,283
  9. Steve Smith, WR: $4,000,000 (dead money)
  10. Mike Tolbert, RB: $3,425,000
    Total: $81,075,616

With a $20.02MM cap hit for the 2015 season, Johnson has a cap charge that ranks first among defensive players, and is also one of just three figures over $20MM at any position — Lions receiver Calvin Johnson‘s cap number also exceeds $20MM, as does another player in the NFC South, whom we’ll discuss shortly.

Still, despite Johnson’s extravagant figure, it may not even be the most noteworthy feature of the Panthers’ list. Even more unusual is the fact that three running backs show up within Carolina’s top 10 cap hits. Combining for a total cap charge of nearly $12MM, Stewart and Tolbert alone would represent an overpayment at the position, and that doesn’t even take into account Williams’ $4MM+ dead-money charge. I imagine GM Dave Gettleman is looking forward to eventually getting those deals off the books and perhaps investing in younger, cheaper backs.

The rest of the Panthers’ top 10 is made up primarily of core players who either recently signed extensions or will do so soon. Newton, Olsen, and Davis all agreed to new contracts this offseason, and it’s just a matter of time before Kuechly does the same.

New Orleans Saints:

  1. Drew Brees, QB: $26,400,000
  2. Jimmy Graham, TE: $9,000,000 (dead money)
  3. Jahri Evans, G: $7,000,000
  4. Marques Colston, WR: $6,500,000
  5. Ben Grubbs, G: $6,000,000 (dead money)
  6. Jairus Byrd, S: $5,500,000
  7. Junior Galette, OLB: $5,450,000
  8. Curtis Lofton, LB: $5,000,000 (dead money)
  9. Keenan Lewis, CB: $4,500,000
  10. Max Unger, C: $4,500,000
    Total: $79,850,000

Heading into the offseason, no team had more cap maneuvering to do than the Saints, who were about $20MM over the cap prior to free agency. All the dead-money charges on the team’s top-10 list don’t look great, but they reflect the moves New Orleans had to make in order to create a little flexibility this spring. If the team had kept Graham, Grubbs, and Lofton rather than trading or releasing them, their cap figures would be even larger.

The Saints aren’t quite out of the woods yet. Contracts like Byrd’s, Galette’s, and Cameron Jordan‘s – which didn’t make the cut here – have relatively modest cap numbers in 2015 before jumping significantly in future seasons. Those three players will count for a total of about $32MM against the cap in 2016, representing the club’s top cap numbers besides Brees.

Speaking of Brees, his $26.4MM cap hit is by far the biggest one in the NFL this year. However, the Saints did well to avoid restructuring his contract and pushing more money onto future seasons. Brees’ cap number will increase to $27.4MM in 2016, but since that’s the last year of his contract, New Orleans should be able to reduce that figure by extending him.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

  1. Gerald McCoy, DT: $14,595,000
  2. Vincent Jackson, WR: $12,209,777
  3. Michael Johnson, DE: $7,000,000 (dead money)
  4. Logan Mankins, G: $7,000,000
  5. Carl Nicks, G: $4,714,000 (dead money)
  6. Jameis Winston, QB: $4,609,323
  7. Bruce Carter, LB: $4,250,000
  8. Alterraun Verner, CB: $4,250,000
  9. Dashon Goldson, S: $4,000,000 (dead money)
  10. Evan Smith, C: $3,750,000
    Total: $66,378,100

Like the Saints, the Buccaneers have three dead-money charges amongst their top 10 cap hits, which I was somewhat surprised to see — Tampa Bay often structures contracts to include larger base salaries and small signing bonuses, in order to make it easier to go year to year. That wasn’t the case for these three players, though, particularly Johnson, who epitomizes the team’s misguided 2014 spending spree.

One factor that could give the Bucs a leg up on their division rivals within the next three or four seasons is the small amount of cap room they’re dedicating to their quarterback. The NFC South’s other three starters have an average cap hit of more than $19MM for 2015, while Winston comes in below $5MM. If the No. 1 overall pick develops into a solid NFL starter, it will allow Tampa Bay to surround him with pricier impact players at other positions until he’s eligible for his second contract.

Information from Over the Cap was used in the creation of this post.

Load More Posts