Community Tailgate News & Rumors

Community Tailgate: NFL MVP Race

January 11th, 2025 at 10:49pm CST by Adam La Rose

The 2023 NFL season yielded a dearth of clear-cut MVP candidates, but that has not proven to be the case this year. Several players made a claim to receive consideration at various points in the campaign, and debate has continued through the conclusion of the season regarding which one will ultimately take home the award at NFL Honors.

As usual, quarterbacks have dominated the discussion. Eagles running back Saquon Barkley led the way for other positions in 2024, a year in which he became the NFL’s ninth ever 2,000-yard rusher. Especially given the team’s decision to rest him in Week 18 (which prevented him from being able to attempt breaking Eric Dickerson’s all-time record), though, it is extremely unlikely the run of QBs receiving the MVP nod will end this year.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ passing attack gave the team a chance to rally from 4-8 into the postseason, and a wild-card berth was still possible entering the final day of the regular season. Cincinnati fell short of the No. 7 seed, however, effectively ending Burrow’s chances of receiving votes at the top of the MVP ballot. The likes of Jared Goff (Lions) and Sam Darnold (Vikings) are likely to be popular names on the lower end of many MVP voters’ final five-player lists, but as far as most observers are considered the race for the award is down to two contenders.

Lamar Jackson has served as the Ravens’ full-time starter for six seasons. Twice in his previous five – including two of the past three where he has remained healthy through the full campaign – he has collected the Most Valuable Player award. That includes a unanimous nod in 2019 as well last year’s award, for which the only other first-place vote went to Josh Allen. Unsurprisingly, the Bills star once again finds himself as the other candidate to receive the honor this year.

Baltimore and Buffalo both saw several notable changes this past offseason, although continuity at a number of spots and with respect to the team’s offensive coordinators was also present. In the case of both division-winning teams, the play of their quarterbacks was the driving force of their overall success, and any number of angles can be taken when arguing in favor of Jackson or Allen. While the latter sat out the closing minutes of several blowouts this year and only logged one snap in Week 18, both passers offered a strong sample size for MVP evaluation.

Jackson and the Ravens needed a win in Week 18 to clinch the AFC North in part due to their 0-2 start to the year. At the end of the campaign in particular, though, the team’s offense showed signs of improvement with Jackson’s increased passing efficiency on full display. In all, the Louisville product finished with career highs in yards (4,172) and touchdowns (41) through the air coupled with four interceptions. No quarterback in league history has recorded more than 40 passing TDs while also managing fewer than five interceptions.

With those totals in mind, it comes as no surprise Jackson’s passer rating for the season (119.6) also checked in at a career high. That figure not only led the league, but it was the fourth-highest single-season total in NFL history. As usual, Jackson was also impactful in the run game; his 915 rushing yards topped the field amongst quarterbacks while his 6.6 yards per attempt average led the NFL. Shortly put, the raw statistics in most categories point toward a third MVP award.

Allen’s performance is highly impressive on many fronts as well, however. Transitioning to a new receiving corps in the offseason (and, in the case of Amari Cooper, midway through the campaign), he led the Bills to a comfortable AFC East title en route to the conference’s No. 2 seed. A pair of Buffalo’s 13 wins in particular understandably drew major attention around the league. The Bills are responsible for the Chiefs’ only regular season loss in which they played their full lineup as well as one of the Lions’ two defeats. Especially with the latter victory coming in Detroit, it helped Allen’s MVP case and highlighted his stellar campaign.

With 28 passing touchdowns and 12 rushing scores (second most in the league amongst QBs), Allen repeated an unprecedented feat in terms of prolific scoring through the air and on the ground in the same season. While ball security has been the source of criticism in past seasons, he committed only eight in 2024. The Wyoming product’s 14 sacks taken were also by far the fewest of his career. Coupling those numbers with individual moments like his fourth-and-2 touchdown run against Kansas City and the play in which he threw and caught the same TD pass against San Francisco make it easy to foresee Allen’s first MVP nod being a distinct possibility.

The Bills and Ravens met head-to-head in Week 4, with Baltimore earning a comfortable victory. Overall, Jackson’s numbers in games against playoff-caliber opponents outweigh Allen’s, although on the other hand the fact Buffalo finished with a superior record in what was viewed as a transitional year may balance the scales on that front. In any case, the 28-year-old draft classmates have each enjoyed the primes of their careers, and both signal-callers’ résumé’s have been significantly bolstered by the 2024 campaign.

There is precedent for the MVP award to be shared, as that has proven to be the case on two occasions (Brett Favre and Barry Sanders in 1997; Peyton Manning and Steve McNair in 2003). Unless that situation emerges again, though, voters will be met with a Jackson-or-Allen decision. Regarding AP first-team All-Pro nods, Jackson wound up with a 30-18 edge over Allen in terms of votes. That is generally an indication of how the MVP competition will shake out; indeed, as ESPN’s Alaina Getzenberg notes, every quarterback named first-team All-Pro since 2013 has also taken home MVP honors.

With all ballots submitted and the countdown on until NFL Honors, how do you see the MVP race ending? Have your say in the comments below.

Community Tailgate: WR Trade Market

October 13th, 2024 at 10:20pm CST by Adam La Rose

With less than one month remaining until the trade deadline, a number of players could soon be on the move. The receiver position in particular is set to see notable deals over the coming weeks.

Davante Adams’ name was mentioned in trade talk before the 2023 deadline with an Aaron Rodgers reunion being a possibility. Once again, the Jets are in the running and they represent the former Packers All-Pro’s preferred destination. The Saints also loom as a serious contender, though, and playing once again with Derek Carr would be a situation Adams is amenable to. New Orleans has aggressively pursued a trade agreement with the Raiders over the past several days.

The Raiders have remained consistent in their asking price of a second-round pick plus other compensation, however, and no suitor has come close to meeting it at this point. Vegas also prefers not to retain salary on the 31-year-old’s deal, one which runs through 2026. Without any guarantees remaining after the current campaign, Adams will either be a rental or a player who works out a restructure upon arrival with a new team.

Rehabbing a hamstring injury, he could of course remain with the Raiders if no trade agreement is worked out. The team sits at 2-3 on the year, and struggles on offense have resulted in Aidan O’Connell taking over at quarterback. Selling Adams or other veterans over the coming weeks would aid Vegas’ long-term goals while allowing him to aid a potential Super Bowl run elsewhere. The Fresno State product has five 1,100-yard seasons on his resume.

Aside from Adams, several wideouts could offer a considerable boost to a contending team down the stretch. Pending free agents are often the names to watch ahead of the deadline, but some receivers with term remaining on their deals may also get dealt soon.

One of those is Christian Kirk, whose availability will be tied to the Jaguars’ record over the coming weeks. At 1-5, Jacksonville does not have a clear path to the postseason and questions have been raised over the job security of head coach Doug Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke. Owner Shad Khan, for his part, remains confident in the team’s decision-makers.

The Jags are not currently interested in adopting a sellers’ standpoint, but Kirk has drawn interest from potential suitors. The 27-year-old is under contract through 2025, although he is not due any guarantees that season. Near the front of one of the receiver position’s recent financial waves, Kirk inked a four-year deal averaging $18MM per year; that figure has since been surpassed many times over, and his production to date in Jacksonville (which includes a career-year in 2021 and a 13.2 yards per catch average) has been notable. The former Cardinal could provide relatively cost-effective play at or near the top of a new WR depth chart.

DeAndre Hopkins represents a pure rental, as his contract will expire after the 2024 campaign. The three-time All-Pro had a strong debut Tennessee season (75-1,075-7 statline), but with the team facing a steep path to postseason contention he could be offloaded. The Titans made a big-money investment in Calvin Ridley this offseason, also adding Tyler Boyd on a one-year deal. If Hopkins is not in the organization’s long-term plans, adding draft capital could pave the way to a younger receiving option being added.

To little surprise, Tennessee has received calls about the 32-year-old’s availability. Any number of teams could stand to add him to their receiving corps, and the Chiefs could be a team to watch on this front. Kansas City – or any other contender – would need to take on a prorated portion of Hopkins’ $8.27MM salary, a figure which could fit into the cap structure of at least some playoff-bound teams.

Likewise, Diontae Johnson is attached to an expiring contract; his base salary sits at $7MM and the Panthers have paid a notable portion of that out through the first six weeks of the campaign. Acquired via trade from the Steelers (after he requested to be moved), the Pro Bowler did not immediately find himself on the extension radar for Carolina. Given the team’s struggles, moving on before a potential free agent departure would allow the Panthers to recoup draft capital.

At the age of 28, Johnson represents one of the younger wideouts who figures to be available at the deadline. Bills head coach Sean McDermott recently spoke about the inexperienced nature of their post-Stefon Diggs WR setup, with Johnson being named as a potential target. Buffalo ranks near the bottom of the league in cap space, though, which could complicate a deal for any pass-catching help.

Trade speculation is not new to the likes of Amari Cooper (Browns) or Darius Slayton (Giants). Neither veteran expects to be dealt in the near future, but both are on expiring deals. Cleveland and New York entered Sunday’s action with three combined wins, so either or both teams considering a sale of experienced players would not come as a surprise. If the top receivers on the market move soon, interest could pick up for at least one member of the Cooper-Slayton pair. Given their 1-4 record, meanwhile, the Bengals could (at a minimum) give thought to a Tee Higgins trade since the franchise-tagged wideout is widely expected to depart during the spring.

With respect to receivers on their rookie deals, Tyquan Thornton is known to be available. The 2022 second-rounder is being shopped by the Patriots, although his value is not particularly high with just 37 receptions to his name. Romeo Doubs is also playing on the third year of his initial pact, and questions about his future arose in the midst of his team-induced, one-game Packers suspension for Week 5. No trade is believed to have been contemplated by Green Bay, though, and Doubs, 24, is back with the team.

With a multitude of receivers to keep an eye on, several options exist for teams looking to make a splash for the second half of the campaign. How do you see things playing out? Which wideouts will ultimately be moved, and which contenders will pay the price to acquire them? Have your say in the comments section below.

Community Tailgate: Haason Reddick’s Jets Holdout

September 15th, 2024 at 10:08pm CST by Adam La Rose

Haason Reddick’s situation remains one surrounded by uncertainty. The Pro Bowl edge rusher has been away from the Jets throughout the offseason with the exception of his introductory press conference on April 1.

The past two seasons saw Reddick cement his status as one of the most productive players at his position, as he racked up 27 sacks in 34 games. That brought his total since 2020 to 50.5, fourth-most in the league during that span. Once it became clear no Philadelphia extension would be in play, though, the team allowed him to seek out a trade. Reddick preferred to remain with the Eagles, but he was dealt to the Jets for a conditional third-round pick.

That selection can become a second-rounder based on his playing time and production, but it would come as a surprise if he hit either threshold as things currently stand. The soon-to-be 30-year-old received an extension offer from the Jets prior to the trade taking place, but that was below market value.

Signs indicated team and player would be willing to continue negotiating after the introductory presser, with New York being particularly amenable to tacking on incentives to the 2024 portion of Reddick’s contract. No progress has been made on that front, however, and ESPN’s Adam Schefter and Rich Cimini note an agreement of any kind is not considered imminent at this time.

Reddick’s camp expected the Jets to circle back to extension talks during the summer, during which he remained away from the team. The matter of his absence has become a central sticking point in this situation; New York has insisted negotiations will only take place once the Temple product reports, while he continues to wait for discussions on a resolution to resume. With neither side willing to budge, this saga took another turn last month.

Again looking to find a suitor willing to meet his desired contract terms, Reddick asked for a trade from the Jets in August. To little surprise, general manager Joe Douglas immediately shot down the request, although the weeks following that move have not yielded any new developments. Reddick has still not attended the facility, leading to New York retaining him on the reserve/did not report list. Douglas has remained consistent in his messaging that contract talks can and will take place once the holdout ends.

In the meantime, Reddick’s financial penalties for his absence continue to accumulate. Mandatory daily training camp fines – which, since he is not attached to a rookie contract, cannot be waived – have reached $4.5MM at this point, while he has also lost a portion of his signing bonus. The former first-rounder lost out on a $792K game check last week, and that will remain the case today and for each contest moving forward until a resolution is found. Reddick’s original base salary for the year ($14.25MM) did not vest ahead of Week 1 since he is still not on the Jets’ active roster, and his earning power as a free agent has no doubt taken a hit this offseason.

Still, his return to the field – which may not take place in 2024 – would be welcomed on a Jets team which lost Bryce Huff (to the Eagles) in free agency and dealt John Franklin-Myers during the draft. Reddick is viewed as having a three-down skillset, something which differentiates him from Huff, so he could occupy a notable role for New York if he were to end his holdout. As the cases of Le’Veon Bell (2018) and Trent Williams (2019) demonstrate, however, players have been known to skip out entire campaigns in the past.

Chris Jones continued his efforts to land a new Chiefs accord into Week 1 last year. Kansas City lost the season opener, and a new agreement was in place before Week 2. Reddick has continued his holdout past that point, and while his agent has been in contact with Douglas, no direct communication with the team has taken place. No end is in sight as a result, although things could of course change rather quickly.

Reddick’s contract will toll in the event he skips out on the entire campaign. That would leave him under team control with the Jets and thus eliminate the possibility of landing a market-level free agent contract in 2025. As CBS Sports’ Joel Corry notes, no exact deadline is in place for him to report to accrue a season in 2024, although doing so before the trade deadline would help ensure he manages to hit the open market during the spring (unless, of course, a Jets extension comes to pass in the near future). Until any movement happens in on either side of this situation, speculation will continue.

How do you see the Reddick holdout proceeding? Will a resolution allowing him to play in New York this season take place, or will another outcome (specifically a trade to a new team or his absence spanning the entire campaign) come to bear? Give your thoughts in the comments section below.

Community Tailgate: Where Will Ryan Tannehill Sign?

July 21st, 2024 at 10:20pm CST by Rory Parks

Ryan Tannehill is easily the most accomplished quarterback remaining on the free agent market, though only the Steelers have been connected to him in any meaningful way this offseason. After Pittsburgh added Russell Wilson and Justin Fields as part of their QB overhaul, the only other report concerning Tannehill was one indicating the Broncos were not interested in him. The 2019 Pro Bowler has not suggested he has any plans to retire, and as training camps open up around the league, it is worth taking a look at some of his likeliest landing spots.

Tannehill, who will turn 36 in less than a week, revived his career in Tennessee after injuries torpedoed the final three years of his Miami tenure. The Dolphins traded him to the Titans in March 2019, and he took over for a struggling Marcus Mariota in Week 6 of the 2019 campaign. From that point through the end of the 2022 season, Tannehill compiled a 30-13 regular season record and led Tennessee to three consecutive playoff berths.

Unfortunately, that is when injuries once again began to take their toll. Tannehill was limited to 12 games in 2022, and after suffering an ankle sprain in Week 6 of the 2023 season, he lost his starting job to Will Levis. With Tennessee now looking to give Levis a chance to prove he can be the team’s franchise passer, Tannehill is looking for a new employer.

In Tannehill’s case, everything old could be new again, as the Dolphins profile as a logical fit for their former first-round pick. While the ‘Fins obviously have Tua Tagovailoa entrenched as their QB1, the southpaw comes with his own share of health concerns, and his current backups are Mike White and Skylar Thompson, who have nine career regular season starts between them. Tannehill would give an otherwise talented roster a legitimate chance to win in the event Tagovailoa is forced to miss time with injury, and he would be a natural fit in Mike McDaniel’s offense. Plus, he would not need to carry the team on his back; he would merely need to competently deliver the ball to the club’s bevy of skill position talent.

Like the Dolphins, the Chargers might have a playoff-worthy roster with starting quarterback Justin Herbert under center, but all of that talent would be wasted if Herbert is lost for a significant period of time. With all due apologies to Easton Stick and Max Duggan, Tannehill would represent a clear and obvious upgrade to the Bolts’ quarterback room, and the team’s presumptive run-heavy approach under new offensive coordinator Greg Roman would mimic the Derrick Henry-centered attack that allowed Tannehill to thrive in Nashville.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, were in something of a rebuilding/retooling phase at this time last year, and they were content to have Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask go into training camp in a battle for starting QB duties. But now that Mayfield has reestablished himself as a viable QB1 and is coming off a divisional round playoff appearance, Tampa Bay is eyeing another postseason run. Although the Bucs have always spoken highly of Trask since they selected him in the second round of the 2021 draft, they may prefer a more experienced option in the event Mayfield should get hurt or should experience the type of regression that ultimately ended his Cleveland tenure.

The Rams, a surprise entrant in the 2023 playoff field who were narrowly defeated by the Lions in the wildcard round, did sign a veteran passer this offseason to serve as a backup to starter Matthew Stafford. Free agent acquisition Jimmy Garoppolo, however, has an extensive injury history and will miss the first two games of the 2024 season due to a PED suspension. Behind him on the depth chart is Stetson Bennett, a 2023 fourth-rounder who saw no action in his rookie season. While Garoppolo’s presence likely precludes a Tannehill signing for now, that could change if Garoppolo should struggle in camp or if he sustains another injury.

Again, Tannehill has not been formally connected to any of the above-named teams, so it is difficult to guess where he might land. Let us know your thoughts in the comments.

Community Tailgate: The Cowboys’ Contract Dilemma

July 10th, 2024 at 10:34pm CST by Sam Robinson

The 2019 Cowboys offseason featured several extension candidates. The team ended up paying most of them, giving extensions to Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, La’el Collins and Jaylon Smith. Dallas eventually re-signed Amari Cooper, though he hit free agency before that deal was finalized. Byron Jones departed for Miami shortly before the Cooper agreement.

Although one of the extensions — Prescott’s — affects where the Cowboys are now, this offseason’s dilemma dwarfs where Dallas stood five years ago. Three players — Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Micah Parsons — are either in contract years or eligible for an extension. Each member of the trio can make a case to become the highest-paid player at his position. For Lamb and Parsons, that means the highest-paid non-QB. Prescott has unique leverage to force the issue into not only becoming the NFL’s highest-paid player but creating a gap between himself and No. 2 on that list.

The Cowboys are not believed to want to set markets, but they may not have a choice. This qualifies as a good problem, given the talent Parsons and Lamb have displayed on their rookie deals. Prescott has not proven himself to be as good at his position compared to the younger Cowboys stars, but as an upper-echelon quarterback, he would carry significant leverage even if his contract situation veered toward a standard place.

But Dak’s circumstances are far from standard. The former Day 3 sensation bucked the trend by playing out his fourth season, for fourth-round money, and waiting on an extension. This meant a year on the franchise tag. Despite that 2020 season being cut short by an ankle injury that still impacts him today, Prescott secured a four-year, $160MM deal just before the March 2021 deadline to apply franchise tags. Prescott became the outlier Cowboy standout, signing for less than five years, and his leverage-maximization tactics led to a procedural franchise tag and a no-trade clause. Part one of that effort looms large years later.

It is hard to overstate how much leverage the Cowboys have given their ninth-year quarterback. Not only can Prescott not be tagged or traded, an offseason restructure placed a $40.13MM dead money figure in play for 2025. That penalty would hit Dallas’ 2025 cap sheet if Prescott is not re-signed before the start of the 2025 league year. The Vikings are taking this medicine after Kirk Cousins departed in March, though Minnesota’s dead cap hit from that defection is $28.5MM.

Prescott is also tied to what would be a record-setting 2024 cap number ($55.13MM) — Dak, Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones would each set that record barring changes to their contracts — but the void years on his contract threaten a future penalty. A Zack Martin restructure would also give Dallas a $26.5MM dead cap hit if he is not re-signed before the ’25 league year. Prescott, 30, securing a deal in the $60MM-per-year ballpark should be considered in play based on the ammo he carries.

While the 49ers have seen their Brandon Aiyuk talks impacted by another receiver market boom, the Cowboys are more directly affected by what took place in Minnesota last month. The Vikings gave Justin Jefferson a $35MM-per-year deal that includes record-smashing guarantees ($110MM in total, $88.7MM at signing). The latter figure hovers a staggering $36MM north of the next-closest wideout. Aiyuk has been tied to wanting a guarantee north of $80MM; Lamb — a two-time Pro Bowler and 2023 first-team All-Pro — has proven more and can make a stronger case for Jefferson-level terms.

As they prepare to make a strong Prescott offer, the Cowboys may well have their QB in place as a higher priority compared to their top pass catcher. Lamb can be tagged in 2025, and while the team has used its franchise tag in six of the past seven years, a cap hold near $25MM would be an issue. Though, the Cowboys — albeit without Prescott, Martin and Lamb signed for 2025 — are projected to hold more than $64MM in cap space next year. They would have an easier time tagging Lamb than the 49ers would cuffing Aiyuk. For 2024, a Lamb holdout looms. Martin succeeded down this path last year, but Lamb’s matter is different due to the WR seeking a monster extension instead of more security on an existing contract.

Expecting to become the NFL’s highest-paid non-QB, Parsons has said waiting until 2025 for his payday would be acceptable. Another cap jump and another dominant season would put him on track to command close to $40MM per year, though the Cowboys do not expect next year’s cap spike to match this year’s $30.6MM jump. If the Cowboys do finalize extensions for Prescott and Lamb this year, will three top-market contracts be a workable scenario?

Of the three, Parsons is probably the best overall player. The three-time All-Pro is tied to a 2025 fifth-year option and could be tagged in 2026, separating this matter from the near-future Prescott and Lamb deadlines. But the Cowboys will certainly need to factor in a Parsons payday as they navigate talks for their QB-WR combo.

The team would have saved money by extending Prescott or Lamb last year, but the team checked off other boxes — re-ups for Trevon Diggs and Terence Steele — as these expensive matters lingered. Time is running out for Jerry Jones and Co. to begin enacting solutions before training camp.

How will the team end up resolving this quandary? As costs rise, will trade rumors emerge surrounding one of the standouts? Weigh in with your thoughts on the Cowboys’ situation in PFR’s latest Community Tailgate.

Community Tailgate: Broncos, Raiders’ Quarterback Plans

April 17th, 2024 at 10:25pm CST by Sam Robinson

With the Broncos and Raiders‘ most recent quarterback plans not working out, the AFC West presents a stark have/have-not disparity at the game’s glamour position. Going into the draft, Denver and Las Vegas have uphill climbs to find passers who could provide hope of matching up with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.

Yes, the Broncos and Raiders have enjoyed some success against the Chiefs and Chargers (more so the Bolts) during these two Pro Bowlers’ stays. But this era of roster building has mandated either a franchise QB or a stacked roster is necessary to be a true contender. Denver and Las Vegas meet neither criteria, and the rivals’ current draft real estate does not leave clear paths to acquiring such help.

Holding the No. 12 pick, the Broncos did not match the Raiders’ urgency to add a bridge-type starter. The Raiders (No. 13) have Gardner Minshew signed to a two-year, $25MM deal ($15MM guaranteed). If they are unable to piece together a trade or do not see good value in picking one of the draft’s second-tier options, the Minshew bridge merely extends.

The Broncos, conversely, have only Jarrett Stidham — a player best known as the emergency starter as Derek Carr and then Russell Wilson were parked largely for contractual reasons — as a realistic starter option. While rumors about the Broncos being fine with Stidham beginning the season as the starter have emerged, it is difficult to envision Sean Payton entrusting the career backup/third-stringer to that role without a better option being acquired.

The Broncos are planning to add another arm via free agency or through a trade, but options are scarce at this point. As far as the draft goes, the team has been tied to Bo Nix and J.J. McCarthy. A recent report suggested a “heavy expectation” exists the Broncos will leave the first round with a QB, and while Denver has been viewed as wanting to trade up, the Payton and Wilson trades make this a dicey proposition.

Denver has not held a first-round pick since 2021 (Patrick Surtain). Unless the Broncos want to entertain trading their best player to help acquire draft assets, they would need to return to the treacherous road of trading first-round picks. Denver unloaded two in the Wilson swap and sent the Bradley Chubb-obtained choice to New Orleans for Payton’s rights. That Saints swap also stripped the Broncos of their 2024 second-rounder, creating a daunting task for the again-QB-needy club. Eating a record-smashing $85MM in dead money over the next two years on Wilson’s contract, the Broncos obviously would best benefit from a cost-controlled passer.

The Raiders do hold their second-round pick, but the player they have not made a great secret of coveting is viewed as unavailable. Reuniting Antonio Pierce and Jayden Daniels became a Raiders goal early this offseason, but ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter said this week a climb from No. 13 into Daniels territory is likely impossible. Michael Penix Jr. consolation-prize rumors have surfaced, and while the Washington product is seen by some coaches as having skills in line with this draft’s top QBs, scouts have seen some mechanical issues that could pose a problem for the deep-ball maestro’s NFL acclimation.

It also will be worth monitoring how serious the Raiders’ trade-up efforts will become in the days leading up to the draft. A recent report suggested Pierce was in favor of doing what it takes to move up the board for a long-term answer while GM Tom Telesco was OK with hanging onto draft assets and using Minshew as a full-season starter if need be. That will create an interesting backdrop ahead of the duo’s first draft together.

Trade routes for the Raiders and Broncos also stand to be complicated by the fact the Chargers sit in one of the spots that could be used to move up. At No. 4, the Cardinals hold prime real estate to collect a major haul from a QB-needy team. If the Cardinals opt to stay at 4 and draft a wide receiver, the Chargers suddenly become the gateway team. L.A. will probably not be inclined to help one of its two division rivals climb to 5 for a franchise-QB hopeful — at least, not without increasing the price tag. The Giants and Vikings also have the AFC West clubs outflanked in terms of draft assets, with New York sitting at No. 6 and Minnesota holding two first-rounders (Nos. 11 and 23).

With the 2025 draft class not viewed — as of now, at least — as rivaling this QB crop, the stakes could soon rise for the Broncos and Raiders. The teams have done their homework on this class, meeting with passers that will be difficult to impossible to obtain (Daniels, McCarthy). Nix, who profiles as a player the AFC West teams would not need to craft a monster trade haul for, also visited the Raiders. These teams coming out of Round 1 without a QB raises major questions about each’s viability.

Neither of these franchises has enjoyed much luck drafting QBs in Round 1. The Raiders made one of the biggest mistakes in draft history by selecting JaMarcus Russell first overall in 2007 (16 years after drafting quick bust Todd Marinovich). Like the Broncos, the best QBs in team history (Ken Stabler, Rich Gannon, Daryle Lamonica, Carr) were either outside additions or a second-round pick.

Denver’s history here is also checkered, with the franchise having traded 2006 first-rounder Jay Cutler after three years and made the strange moves of drafting a first-round QB ahead of John Elway‘s age-32 season (Tommy Maddox) and then trading up 18 spots to draft Tim Tebow in 2010. These decisions both provided more value than the 2016 Paxton Lynch whiff. Lynch is among the 12 QBs/Phillip Lindsay (the 2020 COVID-19 game against Payton’s Saints) to start for the Broncos since Peyton Manning‘s retirement.

Appearing to reside in the backseat among teams with chances of acquiring draft real estate necessary to acquire one of the class’ top arms, the Broncos and Raiders’ QB situations double as two of the top storylines going into the draft. How will the rival teams navigate their complex tasks of upgrading early in the draft? Weigh in with your thoughts on these situations in PFR’s latest Community Tailgate.

Community Tailgate: Jets’ Future

December 29th, 2023 at 9:43pm CST by Sam Robinson

After Aaron Rodgers spent months attempting to come back from an Achilles tear earlier than anyone before him, the lofty goal of returning this season proved unreachable. The Jets activated their preferred starter from IR, and while Rodgers can keep practicing to close out the season, his next game opportunity will come in 2024.

Rodgers said following his darkness-retreat excursion this winter he was “90% retired,” but the future Hall of Fame quarterback has changed his tune since joining the Jets. Turning 40 earlier this month, Rodgers now hopes to play two more seasons. Having planned a two-year run with the Jets, the four-time MVP is planning to start that clock in 2024 — after this lost season ended four plays in. The Jets’ outlook changed at that point as well.

Pivoting back to Zach Wilson, the Jets saw their season resemble a 2022 campaign that became defined by a losing streak. The Jets tumbled out of playoff contention, partially contributing to the call to shut down Rodgers, and have now started four quarterbacks in at least two games. The team’s playoff drought doubles the longest current regular-season-only streak in the NFL, NBA, MLB or NHL.

Robert Saleh will soon become the rare coach to receive a fourth season after starting his tenure with three consecutive sub-.500 showings, with Woody Johnson confirming he and fifth-year GM Joe Douglas will be given a mulligan and return in 2024. With Rodgers given significant say in organizational decisions, his recent endorsement — and rumors leading up to it — pointed to Johnson sticking with the embattled HC-GM duo. While Johnson did not mention OC Nathaniel Hackett last week, Rodgers being a long-running supporter of the struggling coordinator — after a three-year Packers partnership — looks to count for the most at this point.

Saleh still will be joining a select few in being retained after three consecutive sub-.500 seasons. Not counting interim coaches, 152 HCs have been hired since 2000. Only five have managed to last into Year 4 without a .500 season in their first three years. Here is that short list:

Dom Capers, Houston Texans (2002-05)
Mike Nolan, San Francisco 49ers (2005-08)
Jeff Fisher, St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams (2012-16)
Gus Bradley, Jacksonville Jaguars (2013-16)
Jon Gruden, Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders (2018-21)

Even going back to the start of the free agency era in 1993, which seems like a decent line of demarcation for modern hiring practices, only one other HC qualifies for this exclusive club. The Bengals gave ex-Jets HC Bruce Coslet a fourth season in charge in 2000, but his three straight losing slates came after a 7-2 mark as a 1996 interim hire. No other coaches hired from 1993-99 meet the criteria, putting Saleh (and the Falcons’ Arthur Smith, should the 7-8 Falcons lose once more and he survives) in rare territory.

For all the Wilson drama to take place during Saleh’s tenure, the former 49ers DC has turned around the Jets’ defense. The team ranked last nearly across the board on that side of the ball in Saleh’s first year. By 2022, the unit had rocketed to fourth place in scoring and total defense. This season’s group has not been quite as good, sitting 16th in points allowed and seventh in total defense (but third in DVOA entering Week 17). Saleh’s defensive chops and Douglas’ ability to provide sufficient pieces — though, predecessor Mike Maccagnan brought in top front-seven pieces C.J. Mosley and Quinnen Williams — have been on display over the past two seasons.

Still, this year has brought a new chapter of Jets drama. Rodgers’ weekly spot on the Pat McAfee Show featured countless updates on a rehab effort that fell short, with the future Hall of Famer’s comments continually forcing Saleh to address various remarks. Rodgers also criticized the team’s culture after The Athletic’s report that indicated Wilson was hesitant to reclaim the starting role. Saleh pushed back on Rodgers’ criticism but also said he always believed Wilson was the team’s best QB option, even as he turned to the since-cut Tim Boyle for two games.

Wilson’s presence has largely defined Saleh’s tenure. The bust-in-progress is 12-21 as a starter and has been benched regularly since November 2022. The Jets handing the former No. 2 overall pick the backup job, while attempting an unusual redevelopment effort, turned out to be a mistake. But the team compounded the error by refusing to bring in a quarterback capable of unseating Wilson once Rodgers went down. Months later, the Jets rank last in offensive DVOA.

A September report pegged ownership as being behind the failure to seek a true Wilson upgrade, which led to the Trevor Siemian practice squad addition. Another report indicated the Jets did not want to add a starter-caliber veteran due to the effect it would have on Wilson. While Wilson is not expected to be part of the 2024 Jets, his three-season tenure — one Douglas greenlit despite the BYU alum’s unusual prospect profile — has been a low point in franchise history.

After another round of ongoing drama and offensive woes, the Jets will bank on a 40-year-old Rodgers bailing them out on the heels of the most significant injury of his career. Considering the ex-Packers (Hackett included) the team brought in this year, it should again be expected Rodgers will have significant personnel sway. Will that be a wise move for the Jets? Weigh in with your thoughts on Jets ownership’s decision to retain its current setup in PFR’s latest Community Tailgate.

Community Tailgate: Patriots’ Post-Tom Brady Struggles

October 13th, 2023 at 8:30pm CST by Adam La Rose

2023 has seen the Patriots continue to struggle in the years following Tom Brady’s free agent departure in 2020. Offensive shortcomings were foreshadowed in the waning years of the legendary quarterback’s time in New England, but they have dragged the franchise down as the search for a long-term successor is still ongoing.

That effort saw Mac Jones selected in the first round of the 2021 draft, and his rookie performance offered optimism he could deliver consistent play under center. Since then, however, the Alabama product has not met expectations and his status as the team’s undisputed starter remained in question through this past offseason. Tensions between he and head coach Bill Belichick went public, and 2023 was viewed as a potential make-or-break-year for both parties.

The Patriots’ bizarre setup with respect to guiding the offense last season – which saw Matt Patricia and Joe Judge share duties on a less-than-familiar side of the ball – was done away with this spring. The return of OC Bill O’Brien brought about optimism for a rebound from Jones and the rest of the unit, but New England ranks last in the league in points per game and 28th in total offense. Over the past two weeks, their struggles have manifested in undeniable fashion: a 38-3 loss to the Cowboys, followed by a 34-0 defeat at home against the Saints.

At no point during Robert Kraft’s ownership tenure had the Patriots lost two games by 30 or more points in a season, a feat which has now been seen in consecutive weeks. Jones has not been on the field by the end of either contest, but he has received a vote of confidence as the starting signal-caller moving forward. How long of a leash he receives will be a storyline to follow, but the same will hold true for the play of the pass-catching corps around him.

Belichick and the Patriots do not have a stellar record when it comes to identifying high-end receivers in the draft, something which has been made painfully clear without Brady under center. The occasional free agent spending spree – such as the one which produced lucrative deals for tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry in 2021 – has not proved to be a useful solution. Mike Gesicki represents the latest investment at the TE spot, albeit on a one-year deal, which has yet to yield notable production.

Whispers about Belichick’s job security started to pick up when Kraft essentially delivered a playoffs-or-bust ultimatum in March. While the latter walked back that sentiment to an extent, it very much remains to be seen if the former will be able to dig New England out of its 1-4 hole. Failure to do so will no doubt lead to plenty of attention aimed at Belichick’s intentions; the 71-year-old is reportedly expected to step aside (voluntarily or otherwise) if the current campaign ends in another lack of postseason success.

Defensive consistency has, to no surprise, been a mainstay for the Patriots across Belichick’s tenure. That unit is in danger of suffering a notable step back in effectiveness this year, however, with both Pro Bowl edge rusher Matt Judon and first-round rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez expected to miss the rest of the campaign. Their losses will be acutely felt as the team is set to rely on its defense given the inability of the offense to consistently put up points.

Gaining ground in a division which features the Dolphins and Bills will be a daunting task given the advantage those teams have in the standings and the issues which threaten to consign the Patriots to what would be a third year out of the four since Brady left without a playoff appearance (the lone exception coming in 2021 which included a 30-point loss in the wild-card round). While that era has seen a continuation of the organization’s brain drain on the sidelines and in the front office, the current situation has led to renewed calls for a large-scale reset.

What do you make of the Patriots’ 2023 performances and the overall trends they underscore? Should Jones and/or Belichick remain in place as the key determinants in future success (or perhaps a lack thereof)? Or would the organization be better suited to move in a fundamentally different direction and begin a new era? Have your say in the comments section below.

Community Tailgate: Lamar Jackson

February 26th, 2023 at 10:58pm CST by Adam La Rose

Ozzie Newsome’s final draft as Ravens general manager in 2018 saw the team secure a succession plan for Joe Flacco at the quarterback position. With the Super Bowl XLVII MVP aging and approaching an important financial point in his contract, Lamar Jackson was selected to one day take over the reins of a transitioning offense.

That time came midway through Jackson’s rookie season, when the Louisville product took over for an injured Flacco. He helped lead the Ravens to a 6-1 record and a playoff berth, cementing his status as the starter moving forward. The 2019 season saw Jackson deliver one of the most unique and historic performances in NFL history, which culminated in the league’s second ever unanimous MVP vote. Expectations have been through the roof ever since, but the situation between Jackson and the Ravens has soured recently with contract talks netting little progress over the past two years.

The 26-year-old was thought to be next in line for a mega-extension similar to the ones signed by Patrick Mahomes and 2018 classmate Josh Allen. The Ravens have been prepared to pay Jackson in a similar fashion to those two in terms of annual compensation in the neighborhood of $45MM per season. As time wore on without much traction being gained during negotiations, though, the events of last offseason marked an important turning point.

After being the subject of a bidding war, Deshaun Watson was ultimately traded to the Browns and signed to a five-year, $230MM deal. The surprise from Cleveland’s willingness to part with three first-round picks for him was surpassed only by the fully guaranteed nature of his pact. Many around the league – including Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti – lamented the historic investment the Browns made in Watson, acutely aware of how it would likely affect Jackson’s leverage in extension talks.

The previous season had seen Baltimore find itself atop the AFC standings before a reaching a tipping point on the injury front. That included Jackson missing time due to injury for the first time in his career. He was sidelined for the final five games of the year, and the Ravens narrowly missed the playoffs while struggling mightily on offense. Reports then emerged during the summer of 2022 that the two-time Pro Bowler turned down an offer including $133MM in guaranteed money.

That figure would have ranked second in the league, but nowhere near the level of Watson’s deal. New contracts signed by Russell Wilson ($124MM fully guaranteed) and Kyler Murray ($103MM) suggested teams were willing to ignore the Watson accord in terms of precedent on the guarantee front, something GM Eric DeCosta and the Ravens’ front office is holding firm on. Jackson made it clear he would pause negotiations during the 2022 season, one which was expected to provide clarity on his financial future.

Playing on the fifth-year option, Jackson and the Ravens instead followed a similar script this year. The former Heisman winner suffered a knee injury in Week 13, something which was not initially expected to cost him the remainder of the season. That did end up being the case, however, and much was made about his absence extending into the team’s postseason loss. Jackson’s decision to take to social media to elaborate on the extent of his PCL sprain, and later to issue a thinly-veiled directive to the team regarding his impending free agency has likewise not sat well.

Having missed 10 of the past 22 games, injuries have become a talking point with so much at stake in contract talks. That figure could give the Ravens (or any other interested team) perceived leverage, but Jackson has plenty as well. The Ravens are 46-19 in his starts, and 4-9 without him since 2019. The team’s offense has averaged 10 fewer points per game without Jackson during that span compared to the games in which he does play.

A new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken is expected to produce schematic changes compared to Greg Roman, the OC during each of Jackson’s four full seasons as a starter. Regardless of what takes place on that front, the Ravens’ pass-catching corps (which lacks established playmakers outside of tight end Mark Andrews) will be a key area of focus. Additions – such as a long-term replacement for Marquise Brown, whose trade request was quietly granted last spring – will be hard to come by when Jackson takes up a substantially higher portion of the Ravens’ cap, either through a mega-deal or a one-year charge brought on by the franchise tag.

The difficulty in acquiring and retaining pass-catchers increasingly became a point of contention after Flacco turned his 2012 playoff success into a franchise-record extension. Trepidation on the team’s part in terms of looking to avoid a repeat of that scenario would be understandable up to a point, as the Ravens look to keep Jackson in the fold while not compromising an otherwise strong roster.

With the franchise tag being all-but certain in Jackson’s case, this saga could continue for months to come. An offer sheet or tag-and-trade could come into play, depending on which tag the Ravens use and Jackson’s perceived market around the league. Whether he signs his tag is another matter altogether, and sitting out the offseason could lead to a holdout situation similar to Le’Veon Bell in 2018. The then-Steeler skipped the entire campaign, forfeiting millions in compensation (albeit far less than what Jackson would be giving up if he followed suit). Bell still landed a big-ticket deal from the Jets in 2019, so the tactic could prove useful if a repeat were to be attempted.

In the summer, PFR’s readers were split on how they felt this situation would unfold. No option is off the table at this point, from a franchise-record deal to the league’s first ever trade involving an MVP under the age of 30. How do you see things playing out? Which side will concede during negotiations? Where will Jackson play in 2023 and beyond? Have your say in the comments section.

Community Tailgate: State Of The Broncos

October 7th, 2022 at 10:58pm CST by Sam Robinson

Injuries are hitting the Broncos harder than most teams. Starters continue to be moved to IR, with Garett Bolles‘ leg fracture the latest significant issue to emerge. But this is standard in-season fare. Ditto close losses. The Broncos’ bigger-picture problems are not.

The team’s hire of Nathaniel Hackett and trade for Russell Wilson have not produced offensive success; the Broncos’ defense has been largely responsible for their two wins and the team being in position for two more. Hackett and Wilson’s performances keyed both the upset losses to the Seahawks and Colts. Considering what these two figures mean for the franchise’s future, the early returns warrant scrutiny.

Denver cycled through 11 starting quarterbacks between Peyton Manning‘s retirement and the Wilson trade. First-round picks (Paxton Lynch), second-round picks (Drew Lock), free agent signings (Case Keenum) and trades (Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater) did not produce worthwhile solutions, leading the franchise to pony up for Wilson. The Broncos’ eight-asset trade haul — headlined by 2022 and 2023 first-round picks — for Wilson doubled as one of the most expensive in NFL history, and the team committed to the perennial Pro Bowler via the five-year, $245MM ($124MM fully guaranteed) extension in August.

Through five games, the Broncos rank 31st in points per game and 28th in EPA per drive. While the team has mounted productive drives, it is consistently crashlanding in the red zone. This continued Thursday night, when the Broncos were 0-for-4 on touchdowns after reaching the red area. The only two instances of a team going 0-for-4 on TDs in the red zone this season, as ESPN.com’s Field Yates points out (on Twitter), came Thursday and in the Broncos’ bizarre Week 1 loss to the Seahawks. The Broncos have scored touchdowns at a ghastly 21.4% clip in the red zone. That is in last place by a wide margin; the 49ers rank 31st at 40%.

A star quarterback suddenly losing his form at 33 would be one of the more interesting on-field storylines to develop in recent memory, so it is worth speculating whether these rampant issues are Wilson-based or if they are more closely tied to the shift to a new offense. The nine-time Pro Bowler ranks 22nd in QBR, and the latter of Wilson’s two interceptions Thursday helped the Colts tie the game in the final minute. Wilson has rarely opted to use his legs this season; the likely Hall of Famer has 73 rushing yards through five games. That is in line with the new pace he set in 2021 (43 carries, 183 yards), when he missed three games. The Seahawks, who derived considerable value from Wilson’s rushing ability during his 10-year stay, believed Wilson’s run-game reluctancy would increase as he aged. Wilson sits fourth in QB history (behind Michael Vick, Cam Newton and Randall Cunningham) with 4,762 rushing yards.

Wilson’s accomplishments and success leading diminishing Seahawks rosters, at least compared to the franchise’s dominant mid-2010s squads, to the playoffs from 2018-20 point to Hackett being the bigger variable here. The 11th-year passer’s acclimation period to this offense — one that entered Thursday without starting running back Javonte Williams and has played without No. 3 wideout Tim Patrick all season — has been shaky at best. The Broncos’ final offensive play — a fourth-and-1 shotgun set in which Wilson missed an open K.J. Hamler, leading to extensive Hamler post-play frustration — effectively epitomizing the Hackett-Wilson partnership’s first month. Wilson is 2-for-18 on end zone passes this season, per ESPN Stats and Info.

This season has brought Hackett’s first play-calling role since he was fired from his Jaguars OC post during the 2018 season. The dual role of play-caller and game manager proved daunting for Hackett, whose 64-yard field goal attempt decision did well to foreshadow the Broncos’ eventful first month, and a game management assistant (the unretired Jerry Rosburg) is now in place. Situational struggles, as the brutal red zone numbers illustrate, have plagued Hackett since Rosburg’s arrival as well. The last of those produced a notable reaction from ex-Wilson teammate-turned-Amazon analyst Richard Sherman. Hackett rebuilt his career in Green Bay, having a hand in Aaron Rodgers‘ back-to-back MVP awards — and receiving steady endorsements from the future Hall of Famer — and interviewed for four HC jobs this offseason. But his Denver tenure is skidding off track early.

The Broncos rebounded from a 2-3 start in Manning’s first season, shifting quickly to some of Manning’s former Colts concepts to close out that 2012 campaign — a 13-3 season. But that team lost to three division champions, whereas none of this Broncos iteration’s blemishes have come against over-.500 competition. With the Broncos’ new ownership group not having signed off on Hackett, the prospect of a one-and-done HC tenure may be greater.

While these decisions are rare, five coaches (Urban Meyer, Freddie Kitchens, Steve Wilks, Chip Kelly and Jim Tomsula) have been fired during or after their first season. Meyer, Wilks, Kelly and Tomsula all lost 11-plus games; Kitchens’ firing came more as a result of dysfunction. Following Thursday’s result, BetOnline.ag moved Hackett to the top of its first-coach-fired prop odds. With the Broncos tied to Wilson through at least 2025 (due to guarantees), Hackett’s job security will shift to the forefront if his offense continues to produce at this level.

Can the Broncos re-emerge as a more stable operation after their mini-bye? Or have Hackett’s early-season missteps become too big of a concern? How much of the Denver offense’s issues are Wilson-driven compared to the system in which he now finds himself? What does this all mean for the franchise’s long-term outlook? Weigh in on the Broncos’ strange start in PFR’s latest Community Tailgate installment.

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