When the Patriots chose N’Keal Harry during the 2019 draft, it was the first time the organization had selected a first-round WR during Bill Belichick‘s reign. Fast forward three years, and the Patriots pawned off Harry for a seventh-round selection.
[RELATED: Bears To Acquire N’Keal Harry From Patriots]
Doug Kyed of Pro Football Focus recently explored Harry’s struggles in New England and what ultimately led to his trade to the Bears. This naturally led to another (and persistent) story of Belichick’s inability to find production from his receiver draft picks. Since Belichick took over in 2000, the Patriots have used 19 draft picks on the position. As Kyed notes, only three of those players (Deion Branch, David Givens, and Julian Edelman) started more than 20 games in the NFL. About half of those picks were selected in the fourth round or earlier, and many (like Harry) struggled to ever carve out a role in New England’s offense.
As sources told Kyed, part of this is on the Patriots’ strict offense and their unwillingness to tolerate rookie mistakes:
- “Just picking up the system that has been in place for 20 years and the type of routes and adjustments. Sometimes they just need to get the best damn players the ball and not be cute.”
- “It borders on impossibility for a guy fresh out of college.”
- “New England is a tough place for young players, not just because of the terminology, but it’s because if you mess up, you’re out. They’ll pull you out of the game.”
Now, Harry’s inability to stick in New England can’t be entirely put on the organization; sources also attributed Harry’s failures to a lack of maturity, work ethic, and commitment. Still, looking at Belichick’s list of WR draft picks is a bit damning:
- 2022: Tyquan Thornton, 2nd round
- 2021: Tre Nixon, 7th round
- 2020: N’Keal Harry, 1st round
- 2018: Braxton Berrios, 6th round
- 2016: Malcolm Mitchell, 4th round
- 2016: Devin Lucien, 7th round
- 2014: Jeremy Gallon, 7th round
- 2013: Aaron Dobson, 2nd round
- 2013: Josh Boyce, 4th round
- 2012: Jeremy Ebert, 7th round
- 2010: Taylor Price, 3rd round
- 2009: Brandon Tate, 3rd round
- 2009: Julian Edelman, 7th round
- 2008: Matthew Slater, 5th round
- 2006: Chad Jackson, 2nd round
- 2004: P.K. Sam, 5th round
- 2003: Bethel Johnson, 2nd round
- 2002: Deion Branch, 2nd round
- 2002: David Givens, 7th round
Branch and Edelman were both Super Bowl MVPs. Givens was one of Tom Brady‘s preferred targets for a bit, and Matthew Slater eventually became a ST ace. Otherwise, the team’s best picks at the position are probably Braxton Berrios and Brandon Tate, who both experienced NFL success outside of New England, and/or Malcolm Mitchell and Aaron Dobson, who combined for 1,099 career receiving yards.
Of course, even outside of Belichick’s Super Bowl rings, it’s hard to be too critical. While you could attribute much of the Patriots’ offensive success to Brady, it was still Belichick who brought in a revolving door of receivers via trade (highlighted by Randy Moss and Wes Welker) and free agency (including the likes of Danny Amendola and Brandon Lloyd). He also hit on his tight ends (led by Rob Gronkowski) and pass-catching backs (led by James White). Belichick even got some production from UDFAs, most recently Jakobi Meyers. Sure, he burned plenty of draft picks at the position, but it wasn’t like he completely compromised Brady’s receiving corps.
Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels are now out of the picture. It will be intersting to see how a young receiver like second-round rookie Tyquan Thornton will fare alongside quarterback Mac Jones and a revamped offensive coaching staff guided by former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and former special teams coordinator Joe Judge. As Kyed notes, Belichick has mentioned a desire to “streamline” the offense heading into the 2022 campaign, and that potential change in mentality could have an impact on young receivers going forward.
I said this in a prior article, but I am convinced that Harry was not Belichick’s preferred choice in the first. I do not believe that that has much to do with Harry personally, but I believe that Belichick both knows that his offense is notoriously technical and believes that receivers are expendable.
Edelman excelled in that offense in part because of his quarterbacking background (as limited as Kent State’s offense was, seeing the field as a quarterback does likely helped-and he was no instant success either). All of the players who have succeeded on offense in New England have been known as very aware players, especially when considering the receiving backs that come through (Woodhead, White, and Vereen come to mind). Outside of the TE group, Randy Moss, and LeGarrette Blount, very few players on that team excelled on pure athleticism.
Belichick, I believe, would rather see a player prove that he can handle the mental commitment necessary for the team consistently outscheme opposing defenses. He knows that, with his technical his offense is, he will likely have a hard time finding those players. Brady wanted the opposite-a team loaded with talented WRs to make his job easier as he aged (which he now has in Tampa). I am convinced that Harry was meant to address that problem. The only question I have is whether Belichick was pressured into going that direction due to Kraft weighing in, or if he wanted to try and mend bridges with Brady himself. Either way, Harry couldn’t adapt to the system, and now both he and Brady are gone.
I didn’t include this in the post, but for what it’s worth, Kyed’s sources really seem to think that Harry was in fact a Belichick pick:
Thanks for the clarification, Ben. This is an interesting insight and is much appreciated. I still do have one question, though, and that would be whether Belichick had predetermined that he would select a WR, or if Harry himself was worth going in with a first. Meaning, did he want a WR and ignored his staff as to which was best, or did he actually think that Harry was the best overall player available? The former is more forgivable than the latter, but in any case, Belichick should have seen that Harry was not going to be a fit in the Pats’ offense.
I think it’s also worth noting that prior to effectively emerging as Welker’s replacement, Edelman actually received some snaps on defense as a safety in addition to special teams. Undoubtedly this helped him diagnosis opposing units as he developed as a key piece in New England’s offense. Troy Brown also worked in the secondary and was able to stick in Belichick’s offense for many years
Depending on the schemes used, a GM could be trying to address as many as 15 positional needs (excluding special team positions that are generally filled by UDFAs). It’s not at all surprising that some teams are historically strong at drafting for some positions while being weak at some others.
Not that it matters too much but Givens was a solid target for them as well
In the long term, bad at drafting receivers but historically good for winning championships. F**k the picks! Their fools gold.
I think its becoming pretty clear Bill is a HoF coach only when he had Tom. His record in Cleveland was 36-44. The last 2 years weren’t special & most are thinking the same of this year’s Pats.
Bill was to a degree, a victim of his own success. Once the rest of the league decided to poach his top assistants the job became more difficult and the loss of Brady just accelerated the decline.
His top assistants never panned out and most went back to NE. McDaniels, Flores, Crennel, Mangingi, Judge…..And every single one of his proteges come across as jerks. They all burn bridges.
Andy Reid and Sean McVay w/ 1 ring each, both have a better coaching tree than Bill.
It’s not relevant that Belichicks assistants had limited success after leaving New England. Look at dynasties in any sport and you’ll find that those organizations had a high degree of continuity in the front office and coaching staffs. Once that continuity erodes, things begin to unravel pretty quickly and wins occur less frequently.
@crosseyes Bill took the Browns to the playoffs and won? It took 26 years until the Browns won another playoff game after that.
I would also humbly point out the contribution of the Patriots’ defenses over the years to Brady’s success. Every SuperBowl that they won saw the defense place in the top eight or higher in scoring defense. There have been a few years-like 2011 or 2018-where the defense was not elite and the Pats made the championship game. For the most part, though, Belichick put together great defenses and had some great coaching staffs strategizing on both sides of the ball in his early career.
I think we forget how effective Belichick was at finding unknown players, using them at a specific skill position for a short period of time, and then replacing them. In this day and age of widespread analytics (football being still the hardest sport to break down), more teams are better at this. Plus, it’s possible that Belichick may have lost some of his magic, as you’ve said. But there was a point in time-from the mid 2000s to the mid to late 2010s-where Belichick seemed to pluck players out of nowhere and use perfectly in very specific roles. That’s what earned him his reputation, and it was more than just offense.
I will also acknowledge that while we can’t attribute an accurate portion of blame to his more illicit methods, we cannot discount them either. It is unknown for sure what specific effect they had on the Patriots’ run. I think it’s safe to say that from what we can see for sure both Brady and Belichick did uniquely great things from different roles, even as those roles came more into opposition in the end. I would argue that, as architect of the team, strategy, and culture, that Belichick did more to engineer the long term success that New England had, but that having Brady made his job much easier overall. Brady had multiple moments where he stepped up to save the team in ways that only truly elite quarterbacks could, which combined with Belichick’s total devotion to detail and a large dose of longevity on both ends, made the Patriots what they were.
@Ak186 Amen brotha! I don’t think half the people commenting in this chat even watched Carolina v New England in 03’ where Brady was literally just handing the ball off the whole game and the defense came through for them.
People always put the Browns tenure in the same context as today. Back then you had to build your squad through the draft. Nobody wanted Plan B free agents. It’s like comparing QB stats pre 1983 with afterward, apples and oranges. You could argue he set the Browns/Ravens up for the 20 years of success they’ve had with what he left there and groomed Newsom to implement.
It’s the system. The Erherdt-Perkins system is tricky even for vets to learn. It’s why guys like Chad Johnson didn’t make it there, and Reggie Wayne quit rather than stay there. Pittsburgh used to have this same problem until they switched over under Arians. The bottom line is do you want to win or do you want to be cute? Because it works with the right players, and it values moving the chains without making mistakes rather than trying to be some high flying juggernaut on paper.
Little unfair to write off Malcolm Mitchell. He could play, his body just gave out. He had promise, wasn’t a bust.