With a Week 16 loss to the Patriots effectively closing the door on the Broncos’ playoff hopes, the Russell Wilson watch has begun in Denver. As Sean Payton was not with the team when it acquired the longtime Seahawks star last year, the 2024 offseason has been viewed as a key point on the Broncos’ timeline.
It could also soon be a key chapter in NFL transaction history. Sitting at 7-8, the Broncos will bench Wilson. Payton informed the team Jarrett Stidham will start in Week 17, ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter reports. After the Broncos followed up a five-game win streak with a 1-3 stretch, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport reported the team was considering this move — one aimed at ensuring Wilson stays healthy before a pivotal offseason physical.
While Wilson has played much better this season, he has not justified the Broncos’ trade cost. The team sent an eight-asset package to Seattle, which included two first-round picks and two second-rounders. That decision came just after Aaron Rodgers — a multiyear Broncos target — agreed to a Packers extension. More importantly, the extension the Broncos gave Wilson just before last season creates a complex situation for the improved team.
The Broncos signed Wilson to a five-year, $245MM extension last summer; that deal came with $124MM fully guaranteed. The team had Wilson on a Seahawks-constructed contract ($35MM per year) through 2024, but it wanted to beat this year’s extension surge, leading to the $49MM-AAV re-up. Wilson waiving his no-trade clause for Denver always pointed to a new deal in 2022, but that turned out to be the wrong play. Even considering this year’s improvement, Wilson has not moved the needle for a Broncos team that has not found an upper-crust replacement for Peyton Manning since his 2016 retirement. Stidham will be the Broncos’ 14th starting QB post-Manning.
The Broncos can protect themselves against a $37MM guarantee (Wilson’s 2025 base salary) vesting in 2024, but the team cutting Wilson would create a staggering dead-money total. Even if the Broncos release Wilson with a post-June 1 designation — which would assuredly be the move if they are indeed cutting the cord — they would take on $35MM in dead money next year, according to OverTheCap. That would approach a record in itself, but this move would also bring a $49.6MM dead-money blow for 2025. Considering Matt Ryan‘s $40.5MM dead-money total from 2022 remains the single-player record, the Broncos would be sailing into uncharted waters — a two-offseason dead-cap total of $84.6MM associated with Wilson’s contract — if they cut their top quarterback next year.
On Day 5 of the 2024 league year, that $37MM guarantee vests if Wilson remains on the Broncos’ roster. That number is guaranteed for injury only until that March date, when it shifts to a full guarantee. But $68MM in bonus prorations from 2024-28 are also part of this equation, which stands to lead to the dead-money bloodbath.
Wilson’s contract containing a year-out guarantee, which is common among today’s high-profile deals, will force the Broncos’ hand early. If Wilson’s 2025 base salary locks in come March, the Broncos would still be tagged with $86.6MM in dead money (the $37MM base plus the $49.6MM in prorated bonuses from 2025-28) if they cut the decorated QB in 2025 rather than 2024. If Payton has deemed this a substandard fit, it behooves the Broncos to absorb this unprecedented financial blow early. Offset language does exist in Wilson’s deal, which would provide some relief once the 12th-year veteran lands elsewhere, OverTheCap’s Jason Fitzgerald adds.
This scenario is eerily similar to the one the Raiders encountered with Derek Carr. Once again, Stidham is the player who would move into the starting lineup in the event of a protection-based benching. Deciding early to bail on the Carr extension that included a February 2023 guarantee vesting date, the Raiders parked Carr on the bench — though, he left the team to avoid becoming a distraction — ahead of Week 17 last season.
Stidham started the Raiders’ final two games last season, creating a QB2 market. The Broncos gave the ex-Patriots draftee a two-year, $10MM deal to back up Wilson, beating out a Raiders offer. Unlike Carr, Wilson will not leave his team. He will dress as Denver’s QB2 against the Chargers, NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero tweets.
Wilson ranks seventh in passer rating, throwing 26 touchdown passes — after he tossed just 16 last season — compared to just eight interceptions. But the Broncos have not exactly deployed an explosive offense. It ranks 16th in points scored, though that is up from 32nd last year, and 16th in DVOA. Wilson’s relative bounce-back effort notwithstanding, the team remains limited through the air. Payton has restrained Wilson to a degree, and the Broncos have largely relied on short passes or deep shots to Courtland Sutton during their rebound from a 1-5 start. The 35-year-old passer ranks 21st in QBR, and new regimes are more willing to take on dead money associated with players brought in under previous staffs.
Technically, this is not a new regime. GM George Paton remains, but it is widely assumed Payton is calling the shots in Denver. Paton, who was in place for the Wilson extension and Nathaniel Hackett‘s one-and-done, has been linked to being on thin ice. A move to bench Wilson to protect against an injury affecting his contract status may well precede Paton exiting in 2024. The coach Paton traded for this offseason has not meshed especially well with Wilson, whose skillset differs from Drew Brees‘.
For Wilson, this obviously represents new territory. Although the two-time Super Bowl starter submitted a shockingly mediocre season under Hackett, the Broncos did not bench him last season. The nine-time Pro Bowler moving closer to his Seahawks form under Payton may keep the Hall of Fame in play — though, this Denver tenure does inject an interesting chapter — but this benching points to him being available in 2024. Considering this is not a tradeable contract, Wilson is moving toward becoming a free agent for the first time.
This imminent separation will put the Broncos in the market for a new quarterback soon. The team’s recovery from its 1-5 start will make that more difficult, as its draft slot has dropped to 14th. Should the Broncos follow through on their now-expected Wilson release in 2024, it will be interesting to see if a team would be willing to provide another starting opportunity for the ex-Seattle iron man. Wilson is the only player in NFL history with over 40,000 passing yards and 5,000 rushing yards. After being hesitant to run much under Hackett, Wilson has regularly helped the 2023 Broncos by scrambling (341 rushing yards).
While it is clear Wilson is past his prime, he has played a key role in the Broncos’ surprising playoff push — one that Stidham now controls. ESPN’s FPI gives the Broncos just a 5.6% chance to qualify. Against those long odds, the team will soon began a look toward the future.
too much is made of this dead money issue.. If it is not guaranteed do not worry about it… Sign one of the promising back up QB’s that have shined this year.
It is a serious issue. Fans don’t care about the owners’ money, nor should they, but it can significantly lower what they can spend on the players.
That money is a sunk cost, but it’s still news because it counts against a team’s salary cap. With that type of money being figured into a cap, Denver is going to struggle to sign anyone for more than a league minimum deal if they want to put any type of team around the guy. They could draft a QB, I suppose. You could roll with Wilson one more year and still do that, though.
Honestly. Trade Sutton, trade Jeudy, trade Williams. Roster needs a hard reset especially on offense. They’ve got nice pieces in Mims and McGlaughlin?
They desperately need a pass catching TE or 2.
I couldn’t disagree more. Everybody wants to just “blow it up” in every case of teams being bad, but the Broncos have proven that they have talent on the roster if it can just be utilized correctly. It’s easier for them to add the right the QB than it is to cross their fingers and hope that they can find a starting HB, two WRs, and TE, on top of whatever else they give away. They have a lot of pieces, and many are young. There’s no reason to give everything away for what will amount to peanuts if all the picks will go to replacing those players anyway.
This is a lot of the problem, this delusion that they have a lot of talent. Offensive roster has been awful for years. Sutton is a number three receiver on a good team. Judy is an outright bust. Those FA offensive linemen were mistakes. Now, that defense has aged out of its prime and a lot of it needs to be reset. Payton miscalculated what he was taking over. Hackett was a terrible coach, but some of it was the roster.
I agree Ak, but I would probably still trade Jeudy if I thought I could get something for him. I don’t think he’s ever going to be much of a receiver.
Sure, I can see Jeudy moving, since I believe that Mims can do some of that role. But I also don’t think that Wilson can utilize him correctly, either, since Wilson cannot attack the middle of the field well. If Denver could get a QB who is able to do that, Jeudy’s value goes up. Getting a pick for him wouldn’t be bad, though, if it’s used on an area of need (such as TE, or EDGE, or a second corner). I could be fine with either keeping him or trading him if I’m Payton.
As for Paton…well, he’s shown that, for his blunders in free agency, he can draft well. If I’m Denver, i’m considering that before letting him go. If Payton is running the show now, Paton could be of use as a draft resource if nothing else. If he is no solely longer in charge of free agency, it seems that they’re addressed his biggest deficiency there-though it’s hard to say for sure without knowing the specifics of Denver’s decision making process there.
They’ve had this skills position group together for 3+ years
It’s easier to find a franchise qb than rb wr te? No no it is not.
You can find starting caliber rbs in 3rd 4th 5th rounds even undrafted
You can find starting caliber wrs 1st-5th rounds
You can find decent tes rounds 1st -4th.
Finding a franchise qb is the most difficult thing to do in the nfl. And without it talent means nothing.
Broncos have gone through
Multiple head coaches
Multiple offensive schemes
Multiple qbs
With this skill position group
They need to blow it up and start fresh across the board.
This skill position with bad coaching and bad QB play…
Finding one WR is easy. Finding new starters at every position is not. What good does “blowing it up” do, exactly, other than making us feel better? At best, you’re hoping to just get the same production from your new starters. At worst, you just never find it. None of these players are prohibitively old. Sutton is closest, at age 28. There’s no reason to think that these players will be ineffective next season, or in the next two to three years. People always assume that complete rebuilds make things better, and forget that rebuilds get botched all the time.
You don’t have to find a new starters for every position. Mims replaces Jeudy. You’d need to find a Sutton replacement either draft or free agency- Evans, Higgins.
McGlaughlin replaces Williams and you find a complement either via draft or free agency. They also have perine on the roster
Their TE group isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. Trautman has 174 yards leading the way.
I agree that the TEs are bad-that’s why I’m saying that Denver needs a TE, in addition to the others. They already do.
Sutton is not a one for one replacement with those others. He’s a big bodied high point receiver who may be the best red zone wideout in the league, depending on who’s doing the arguing. Higgins is a great addition to any WR corps, and is tall himself, but he’s not a replacement for Sutton. Sutton just plays bigger (on top of having pretty good speed). I know that you’re not arguing for role replacement, but rather production replacement, but the Broncos still need that tough catch receiver, and that’s a harder receiver to find in today’s NFL. They already have one in Sutton, and he’s played as well as he can with the bad QB play that Denver has had. There’s no urgency to trade him, considering the difficulty in finding a comparable player.
Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin are also not one for one replacements. McLaughlin is a nice change of pace runner who has excellent quickness and motor, but he is extremely undersized. He’s not going to shoulder the lion’s share of carries for a team, even in a platoon. Williams is good sized, and has natural burst. Also, he’s still young-there’s no reason to trade him, either, just to use the return to hopefully pick a similar back. That’s my problem, here: The players that the Broncos are hoping to pick are already on the roster. Sutton, as I noted earlier, is proof that better QB play and better coaching can make a big difference in production. This is evident in watching most of Denver’s games this year, as opposed to last year. Even Wilson has tremendously improved in comparison to last year, and he still is ineffective. Wilson is what limits the scheme, not the skill players. Because of him, the playcalling must be simplified, and an entire third of the field is essentially unavailable for scheming (unless Wilson rolls out of the pocket). Any decent quarterback who can use the middle of the field will give Payton and the receiving corps more options.
Denver needs a new quarterback anyway-piling on these other needs just makes it harder. Finding a new QB is one thing, but it gets more difficult when you have to find a new QB, new HB, and two or three new receivers. Denver has left tackle who should have a few more years left, and a young center who has finally seemed to have gotten his feet under him, as well as a good guard in Meinerz. There’s more that’s set on this team than there is unset. Most of that also isn’t prohibitively old. Denver is going to have to get a QB anyway, and they may as well at least give him a good starting situation, rather than pulling a Carolina and leaving him with nothing to work with.
2021 they were in mid to late teens in yards a game and near bottom in points per game
Last year early 20s in yards a game and dead last in points
This year mid 20s in yards a game and mid teens in points.
These pieces aren’t meshing together. And haven’t for 3 years despite numerous changes and different offenses and different qbs.
Fixing the qb issue won’t make these pieces suddenly be able to play together. They’ve had 3+ years together and produced middling results.
Yes. Broncos should blow up offense and try to rebuild it with pieces that fit the scheme better. Cause the current pieces don’t work well together proven by lack of production.
It was man if only broncos had a qb
They went and got a qb
Then it was oh Hackett sucks we need a better offense for Wilson
Now it’s Payton sucks Wilson sucks
Reality is Sutton Jeudy Williams don’t mesh together. They had pieces on offense for years including hamler and others years before. Lack luster results.
Broncos need better pieces that fit Payton’s offense or whatever offense they’re running.
You can be tired with the narrative all you like, but Wilson does suck, as you put it. No amount of being frustrated with the argument will make it untrue. In 2021, Denver played 14 games with Teddy Bridgewater as QB, and 3 with Drew Lock. That’s not exactly a high output offense as is, even if they did manage to get a full season from just a single starter. Denver still managed to finish just a game below .500, with a 7-9 record. It’s really not hard to imagine a scenario where they get over .500 with Bridgewater not missing games. They’ve gotten 15 games out of Wilson in 2022 and 2023. So it’s hard to say that their WB issue was “solved” when they haven’t gotten 16 (or 17) games out of a quarterback since 2014 ( you can guess who that was).
As for the players themselves, Sutton is playing well. Jeudy is not. I fail to see what Williams has to do with either of them “meshing” as a running back. Payton was the one who decided to keep them, so he evidently does believe that they’ll fit. For the record, I do not believe that Payton sucks-please don’t assign that to me. Also for the record, I’ve enjoyed the discussion, and I still hold that you have an all time great forum name. I think I’ve said my piece on this, though. I think that Denver will lean more towards what you suggest than what I do, but I guess we’ll see what they decide to do.
Wilson gets traded to the pats with a more team friendly extension, broncos trade for Justin Fields. Everybody wins
Paying Wilson $10 million per year is too much and he’s not going to willingly take that haircut to play for the Patriots.
Pats are going to draft a QB and have no use for Russ.
Not that I would really care for it, but wouldn’t it be ironic if he got released and he resigned with Seattle at vet minimum?
Ironic, yes. Good, no.
Nothing about the scenario is plausible.
Yeah I agree. Pete Carroll has made up with former players in the past who have left on bad terms, so anything is possible. But definitely not probable. The way Wilson acted before and after he left, I don’t think anyone in Seattle wants him back
Martial Artisan: I know I sure don’t. I just think it would anger Broncos fans.
From my perspective, Wilson is getting what he deserves.
Totally agree. Wilson burned the bridges down in Seattle on the way out of town to Denver.
I don’t think RW would settle for a backup role and there’s zero chance he would sign for the vet minimum when guys like Mike White are making $8M AAV.
Biggest issue is Payton’s head. The real play here is probably to make sure Patton exits to stroke Payton’s ego and have him gain total control. Payton has always been a tool, and never won anything unless he cheated so Bronco’s fans have that going for them.
I’ve always felt that way about Payton too but typically get ridiculed for it. The dude’s only meaningful season they also had to place bounties on a 38 year old QB’s head because they couldn’t stop him. Joke of a coach and ran away as soon as things got tough (Brees leaving).
I’m not a Broncos fan and I don’t have strong feelings about Payton one way or another. But I will give credit where credit is due. If you had told me in September that the Broncos would win even seven games this year I would have laughed and said “ask the Dolphins about that”.
I think Payton inherited an even bigger dumpster fire than people realized. Patton deserves some heat for that. That Payton has been able to turn things around and win five in a row deserves praise.
wait what?
I think Wilson is toast. However, what does Stidham do for this team? He’s probably even worse.
Exactly the point. Tank for better draft position
Serves as protection against 2025 salary if he gets seriously injured in the final two games of the season.
that’s reasonable, fair enough
Pure financial play (guarantees). Maybe they think he’s tradable, which is a real stretch?
It’s for visibility. No decisions have been made yet, this is just a protective hedge move to keep Wilson from getting injured and to see what Stidham can do since the playoffs are pretty mythical proportions for the Broncos now.
They’re not going to be able to easily trade Wilson and need all their draft capital for other positions (OL/DL/WR/LB) as the Broncos are so weak on depth on both sides they’re one injury away every week from lacking scheme. Odds are they keep Wilson OR release him and plan to use Stidham for 2024. They could trade Wilson, Paton could get fired yadda yadda, but odds are that’s the discussion at this point.
^Odds are they keep Wilson or release him
I like those odds!
LOL
Broncos fans are all rushing to the gates…WHO ARE WE GOING TO DRAFT?!
…nobody, yet. Their pass rush sucks, their OL altho not injured is way too inconsistent for a rookie, and now the running game looks like it’s run out of steam.
I like the opinion Payton did it to scare the whole team. The first 3 quarters against NE they looked like they’d all rather be somewhere else. — That can be arranged.
LET’S RIDE!! BWAHAHAHAHA!!
Ride into the sunset. This last 1st half convinced me he’s gotta go.
Beat me to it I was thinking of a Wilson hype pregame with the bench players “BRONCOS BENCH LETS RIDE!!!” Said by Russell Wilson
Is it unreasonable to feel like Wilson could go to the NFLPA and fight about being sat for financial gains of a franchise over actively attempting to win games?
Not saying he’d win, or deserve to, but idk I see this getting ugly for both sides.
He gets paid either way, and that is the only thing the NFLPA will care about.
But Wilson doesn’t give them a better chance to win, he’s washed up.
Russell Wilson still gives them a better chance than Stidham. If not, they wouldn’t do this. They aren’t only trying to get around paying him, they want a higher draft pick. The way to do that is play a lame duck QB like Stidham, who’s own kids won’t care about his NFL career. Wilson may suck, but he wouldn’t play and try to throw this game away. Stidham doesn’t have to try to do so, just by seeing snaps he will contribute to losing. Russ has only missed what 6 games in his career, while there’s always an ‘injury risk’, and he’s only getting older, he’s avoided major injuries. He is being sacked more in DEN than SEA though so the chances to get hurt are still there.
IDK, I just don’t think any team in the NFL besides maybe the Jets are better off with a guy like Stidham at QB..
He is sacked so much because he holds the ball so long.
Payton is trying to lose to the Chargers in order to enhance Denver’s draft spot while bumping LA further towards the 10 spot……schemer is his methods
Why am I scared to death that Mark Davis will sign him?
About damn time
Raiders free agent signing. Unless Jayden Daniels is still available.
Btw, if Stidham isn’t the guy, and if the bears move on from the current #10 ranked qb Justin Fields, he makes only $3.2m in 2024. I could see that trade.
They Derek Carr’d him lmao
The major difference is that Carr wasn’t so much bad as the coaching staff was incompetent. Wilson is actively holding the offense back by not being able to comfortably execute the scheme.
Wilson also had a shotty o line had several game winning drives with subpar coaching lost his number 1 WRs several times and decreased his turnovers. He’s obviously a scapegoat just like how Carr was
When you take $50 million of your team’s cap space, you are expected to elevate the surrounding players. Blaming the line, or the wide receivers, or the coaching doesn’t really cut it at this point in his career. It was the line and the coaching in Seattle, and the line and the coaching last year, and then again this year with a HOF coach. At some point it is the player and not three different head coaches, two of which are going to be in the HOF.
I’ve got to agree with larkraxm. Wilson has his strengths, but he can only really run one system. That’s his system. The Seahawks could have adapted better in all of those years, sure, but Wilson also has several glaring weaknesses that affect his long term production. The issue was that Wilson never really accepted them fully. The major one that I’ve referenced several times-and many Seahawks fans and probably a few Broncos fans can attest to-is that he just cannot play the deep middle if the field, which is where a ton of complex passing patterns attack. Wilson can only really attack that by rolling out from behind his linemen, which requires a ton of discipline and good execution from them to hold their blocks and also not block downfield.
When Wilson was at his best in Seattle, they had a strong run game. Wilson’s best ability was the use of his own legs to complement that-somewhat as a runner, but really it was his ability to prolong plays as a passer. He’d run around until his receivers broke free and made a play. The length of time and instinctive “routes” of players like Doug Baldwin made these plays almost impossible to contain for defenses. Wilson’s legs, cannon arm, and the shared connections with his receivers back then made it all possible.
Needless to say, this is a lot of improvisation for most structured offensive systems, and the inability to attack the deep middle of the field as a pocket passer makes it even harder. The reluctance of Wilson to scramble and his losing a step make his own offense even harder to run, let alone other schemes. Wilson still has talent, but he’s had in his head that he’s a complete quarterback, and he’s not. He has limitations that make him a hard fit in most offenses, which what he had trouble accepting in Seattle and hopefully has learned from his time in Denver.
“I know it’s the number one team sport on the planet but because you make the most money you have to elevate poor coaching dismal playcalling and subpar weapons and inconsistent o line bro because you make a lot of money bro”
I never mentioned how much money anybody made. Wilson just has some very strong limitations that create immense difficulty in scheming plays for him. Good coach or bad coach, he has limitations.
Every player has limitations. Look at Mahomes. His improv is all on tape teams are figuring him out. I’m saying Russ is a scapegoat. I never said he was perfect
I get your argument. I do disagree though, because in this case, I do think that Wilson’s issues are the primary problem. Now, whether Denver will find the right guy to offer what Wilson does in other areas, as well as what he doesn’t in the critical places, is another gambit altogether. I guess we’ll see. I see why you say that, though. And of course, at the end of the day, none of us are in that room, so we could all be barking up the wrong tree pretty easily.
I’ve got no sympathy for anyone in this mess – as money and ego has messed up this team’s chance of competing for another 3 or 4 years.
man I am so thankful that me being the die-hard eagle fan that I am that I was one of the few Eagle fans that was begging the Eagles not to trade for Russell Wilson! I’m so glad we didn’t give up what Denver gave up for him and two years later they’re done with them all that draft capital, no offense Drew luck, and that massive dead cat they’re going to be taken. This falls down into the category the best trade we never pulled off
He had a no trade clause and was never considering the Eagles, so way to go on not making a trade that you were never even considered for.