The Panthers’ Week 15 win over the Falcons brought the Patriots and Cardinals, who each lost, one game closer to the No. 1 overall pick. New England’s weaker strength of schedule provides keeps Arizona in the No. 3 spot, while Washington — weeks away from a likely full-scale reboot — has lost five straight to move into position for its first top-five pick since 2020.
Early reports have the Bears more likely to draft Justin Fields‘ replacement than trading a top pick once again, but the Patriots and Cardinals are still in the running for what could well be the Caleb Williams draft slot. Much less drama would emerge if New England claimed the top pick, as the Patriots would be expected to draft the top QB prize. Arizona landing atop the draft for the second time in six years could produce a derby, with Kyler Murray‘s contract difficult (but not impossible) to move for new GM Monti Ossenfort. QB-needy teams may well be hoping the Cardinals land one of the top two spots, however, providing a potential gateway to a trade-up for Williams or Drake Maye.
The Raiders’ 63-21 demolition of the Chargers slid them down six spots compared to their position last week. The Packers also climbed eight spots from their slot going into Week 15. Green Bay has not held a top-11 draft choice since it drafted B.J. Raji in the 2009 first round; that came on the heels of Aaron Rodgers‘ first season at the helm. Jordan Love‘s QB1 debut season could still produce a playoff berth, however, and the rest of the NFC and AFC wild-card races remain tightly bunched.
Here is how the 2024 draft order looks with three regular-season games to play:
- Chicago Bears (via Panthers)
- New England Patriots: 3-11
- Arizona Cardinals: 3-11
- Washington Commanders: 4-10
- Chicago Bears: 5-9
- New York Giants: 5-9
- New York Jets: 5-9
- Los Angeles Chargers: 5-9
- Tennessee Titans: 5-9
- Atlanta Falcons: 6-8
- Green Bay Packers: 6-8
- Las Vegas Raiders: 6-8
- New Orleans Saints: 7-7
- Denver Broncos: 7-7
- Seattle Seahawks: 7-7
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-7
- Arizona Cardinals (via Texans)
- Buffalo Bills: 8-6
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-7
- Minnesota Vikings: 7-7
- Los Angeles Rams: 7-7
- Indianapolis Colts: 8-6
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-6
- Cincinnati Bengals: 8-6
- Kansas City Chiefs: 9-5
- Houston Texans (via Browns)
- Detroit Lions: 10-4
- Philadelphia Eagles: 10-4
- Miami Dolphins: 10-4
- Dallas Cowboys: 10-4
- Baltimore Ravens: 11-3
- San Francisco 49ers: 11-3
steelers will move into top 10
Lots of assumptions in this article…. I’ll start by stating that Caleb Williams is not the #1 or # 2 QB in this draft… and its not a given that the Patriots even draft a QB when there is a generational WR on the board to be picked.
your opinion on the QB class does not matter. The industry’s opinion does. Right now the industry views Caleb Williams as the consensus top QB and #1 overall prospect.
No one’s opinion matters. They usually get it wrong too
Right? Because history shows that great WRs make great QBs, not the other way around!!
Oh wait….
Sadly, fans keep forgetting that history shows that without a good OL, you get neither great QBs or great WRs.
I would argue that Hurts is an average throwing QB at best, but his OL and receiving weapons (including TE and RB) make him look great. The number of amazing catches his receivers need to make to make up for his poor throws is stunning.
I don’t understand the draft order. Why does Tampa and Vikings pick ahead of Rams?
Strength of schedule is the first tiebreaker, with the weakest SoS drafting before the higher SoS.
Right now the Rams have a tougher strength of schedule.
SOS – strength of schedule breaks ties in team records…
It’s just a ‘filler’ article. Put something in the slot to get paid. With games to be played the order will change a bit as more players and coaches play for a job in the league for next season.
It’s an interesting article. Thanks for reading and commenting.
I’ll take this kind of filler article over the latest garbage about Travis Kelce and Taylor swift (or which of their players is whining about a penalty that was a penalty, being called a penalty), ANY of the Jets drama, or the absolute trash all the Packer fb pages post on which defensive players should be voted to the pro bowl.
This.
I don’t understand how this article is never correct. The Titans have a lower SOS than the Jets
So it’s only strength of schedule and not record or making the playoffs? Bills are 8-6, but not in playoffs, but draft ahead of the rams. Vikings have same record as rams but are ahead of them in playoffs due to tie breaker. Which is conference record. But draft ahead of them. You can’t write a filler article and be totally wrong on the subject. I get the concept, but that’s crazy.
Read about how it works and then explain why you think it’s wrong. Don’t just complain about it. First is non-playoff worst record with lowest SoS, in that order.
I looked it up. It’s first the 18 teams who are not in the playoff by record. Then goes to WC teams and assumes they all lose. If their records are then tied it is strength of schedule followed by a lot of other things. So this appears to be corrrect. Making the playoffs with a bad record is not a blessing for the draft.
Down 8th with their 2nd first round pick.
Looks like Arizona will pick 2nd overall, which doesn’t bode well for the Bears getting MHJ. They may have to draft him 1st overall if they want him. Once again with the Bears, winning irrelevant games against bad teams late in the season is costing them draft capital. Seen this before, and it never ends well.