Sam Darnold promises to be one of the most interesting free agents in recent memory. Regarding quarterback UFAs, he may become one of the most captivating commodities since full-fledged free agency launched in 1993.
Coming off an original-ballot Pro Bowl nod, Darnold transformed his free agency stock during the regular season but offered a startling update to his value to close the campaign. Duds in the Vikings’ two biggest games — blowout road losses to the Lions and Rams — did the most to drop the only 14-win team in wild-card history to being a one-and-done. Questions already lingered about Minnesota’s 2025 QB situation; Darnold’s big-stage struggles will amplify them.
The team will have the option to retain Darnold via the franchise tag, but that scenario was more plausible before the former top-three pick’s concerning finish. Still, Darnold put together a stunning season. The Vikings do not have a decision on the free agent-to-be, however, but their fourth-year GM referred to the full picture when assessing Darnold’s suddenly curious standing.
“We got to see Sam play some incredible football for us,” Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said (via Pro Football Talk). “Won a lot of big games — at Seattle, at Lambeau. The production he was able to do, we’re talking bout games where he won games for us. There were a lot of games where he was a ‘win because of’ type player. And you also have to net that with all of [it] in totality.”
Errant throws and sacks sank Darnold during the Vikings’ final two games, but he still stayed healthy throughout a season for the first time (discounting his year as the 49ers’ backup) and piloted Minnesota to three wins in games against playoff-bound opposition, beating everyone on the schedule except for the Lions and Rams.
The sector in which Minnesota resided in the NFC bracket made the Detroit and Los Angeles issues a problem, but Darnold tallied a career-high (by a wide margin) 35 touchdown passes and tossed just 12 INTs. His 7.9 yards per attempt ranked sixth in the NFL, and his 4,319 passing yards slotted fifth. QBR was a lukewarm on the ex-Jets draftee’s breakout before the Lions rematch, and the modern metric placed him 14th.
It would cost the Vikings more than $40MM to tag Darnold. That rumored scenario may have seemed more palatable before Week 18, but it perhaps still should not be entirely ruled out. An iffy draft pool and a free agency class featuring aging options, disappointing 2020s draftees and backup types would stand to help Darnold, who would be the top option if he reaches the market. Minnesota could opt to take its chances and work out a lower-cost deal without the tag coming into play, but doing a long-term deal after having drafted J.J. McCarthy 10th overall would be complicated. And Darnold may not be especially interested due to McCarthy’s presence, despite the advantages Kevin O’Connell‘s offense can provide.
“We’re going to approach this offseason — I don’t want to give you the stock answer, but it really is — everything we do is about, OK, what’s the team around him going to look like? What does this piece fit into our whole championship equation? And we’ll do those exercises like we did last offseason, came out with a plan that we came up with,” Adofo-Mensah said.
“At the end of the day, you’re making decisions under uncertainty. But what happens is, once you find a course of action, it’s how you implement your plan — how you show up every day and get the best version of whoever you decide to go with at quarterback. How does that fit into your long-term picture? The contract structure, all those different things will go under our plan. And I’m excited to have those conversations because I think we’ve got a lot of good options. And at the most important position in the sport, I think that’s a great thing.”
McCarthy has undergone two knee surgeries, repairing a torn meniscus that knocked him out for the season. The former national championship-winning passer, however, is back on the field doing QB drills, Adofo-Mensah said (via ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert), with the GM indicating the 2024 No. 10 overall pick is on schedule.
Adofo-Mensah, who joins O’Connell on the Vikings’ extension radar, still said it is “way too early” to know the team’s 2025 plan at the position. The Vikings will have some options, though this situation does look a bit different after the team devoted its 2024 offseason to replacing Kirk Cousins with a rookie. Teams will be expected to ask the Vikings about McCarthy’s availability, but Darnold’s shaky conclusion will affect the NFC North club’s answer. No trade should be considered likely in 2025.
McCarthy’s rookie deal runs through 2027, with a fifth-year option in place for the ’28 season. Darnold will be going into his age-28 season in 2025, and a substantial raise — despite the ugly finish — appears certain. QB-needy teams who lack certain access to the top arms in the draft stand to be interested. The franchise tag window opens February 18 and closes March 4; the Vikes will have until March 10 — when the legal tampering period begins — to negotiate exclusively with Darnold.
Is Indy about to go all in on another iffy QB?
The issue is not that Darnold lost those four games to the Lions and the Rams. The issue is how he lost those games. Darnold was completely disoriented under pressure and disintegrated. The play calling was also suspect. When the offensive line is crumbling and your QB looks like a deer in the headlights, it’s time to switch to the quick slant. O’Connell believed in Darnold and they both failed one another, Darnold with his play, O’Connell with his playcalling.
The recipe on how to wreck Sam Darnold (the new and improved version) has been published. Darnold isn’t worth more than $15 million to Minnesota (part-time starter, glorified backup) and is only worth $20 million to the truly desperate.
The truly desperate inevitably have terrible offensive lines and shaky WR. They would get the worst Sam Darnold (the one who played for the NYJ).
The only team who should want Sam Darnold is Minnesota, and they should not pay him more than $15 million. If Brock Purdy’s demands in SF were impossible, then SF might want Darnold and would be able to make use of him. But Purdy has another year under contract in SF and SF would make him play it out (if no extension).
Whatever Darnold’s agent says the Darnold market is almost non-existent. Same thing happened for similar reasons to Case Keenum after his 13 win season, again with the Vikings.
“Whatever Darnold’s agent says the Darnold market is almost non-existent.”
You have no evidence of that other than your opinion.
Case Keenum is not a good comp. He was an UDFA. Darnold is a former #3 overall pick and is 2 years younger. Darnold probably has a lot more in common with Alex Smith than Case Keenum.
I presented fairly detailed arguments above for the poor Sam Darnold market. Darnold is fool’s gold. He’s fortunate to have Kevin O’Connell covering his back. Quite a few other coaches would have shown a lot less patience after those two season-wrecking performances. O’Connell is desperately trying to keep Humpty-Dumpty together to try another season. O’Connell also knows he needs most of Darnold’s would-have-been 2025 salary to bring in one of the top free agent OT, if he wants to see anything like decent performance out of Darnold in 2025.
Viking fans have seen enough not quite good enough QB’s (Bridgewater, Keenum, Cousins, Darnold), there’s no reason to keep an overpriced one for another season. Unless the price is right, O’Connell can and should send Darnold packing.
There’s a reason he was drafted third overall. There’s a reason he started for USC. There’s a reason Minny did well this year. Say it with me. Sam. Darnold.
Darnold played some good games. I was rooting for the guy. But those meltdowns against LA and Detroit showed the same old Sam Darnold the human punching bag, whose weekly beatings on the NYJ turned all of our stomachs for years.
For Darnold, there’s no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Not for the team, not for him. Darnold’s best play is to stay in Minnesota at whatever price the Vikings offer and try to do better next year.
The analogy QB Case Keenum (see below). It turns out Keenum was traded to the Redskins. The deal was contingent on Keenum taking a $14 million pay cut ($21 million to $7.5 million). Even then the Broncos has to pay half of Keenum’s 2019 salary ($3.5 million).
If Darnold goes elsewhere, he’s unlikely to keep his new job for more than season. If Sam wants to go this way, he should focus entirely on guaranteed money and signing bonus. He’s unlikely to see any non-guaranteed second season money.
Darnold is like Purdy in that they are system QBs. The Ram’s DC completely disrupted the Viking’s “system” and O’Connell couldn’t adjust. Darnold should not wear the failure tag on that one. Yes, he should’ve thrown the ball away a number of times, but I think the system worked so well most of the season that he was kind of shell shocked.
Swap Darnold with Gardner Minshew this year. The Raiders still would have been awful, and we would be talking about paying Minshew. Say it with me. System. Guy.
this is all your opinion. You are not a NFL GM. So you do not know anything more than the rube that posts.
Darnold is benefitting from the system he is in. It also helps to have the weapons the Vikings have. I don’t think it would translate if you stick him on the Raiders or Jets. Conversely, many QBs, could have had similar results in that system.
You have provided opinion. I will provide mine. You seem to think KO showed patience with Darnold. I say he deceived him the entire season. Talked him up so that Sam would show up in regular season. Then, to support his and GM position all along that they would revert right back to JJ, they “sunk” him in the post season. Everyone with a brain knew that Detroit would blitz. No game plan change (and yes, some throws missed by Sam). Then Rams, with a younger more athletic D compared to the Lions, and no game plan changes (e.g., slants, screens). I know who would have faired better with this O-line against the Rams pressure – Tom Brady and Peyton Manning – two HOF QBs.
You think the Vikings intentionally tanked the post season to undermine Sam Darnold and justify going back to McCarthy next season, even though they could have won it all if they only wanted to. I think that is the stupidest opinion I have heard in a long time. No football team is intentionally tanking postseason games in order to make roster moves that are more PR friendly next season.
I unequivocally do think that. Not sure why you feel it is ok to state “that is the stupidest opinion I have heard in a long time.” Not too respectful. However, having been driven out of a job where co-workers chimed in to jam me up, and it not having nearly the importance of the NFL, I learned the hard way to “never say never”. How did the Vikes match up against Washington, Philly, or the Lions if they got past the Rams. Better to make the “scrub” QB (their words not mine) the scapegoat vs the GM/Head Coach, who both, by the way, need contract extensions.
Not trying to be disrespectful, but wouldn’t the coach and GM prove their competency by winning the Super Bowl with an NFL cast off that no other team wanted? Winning games with a QB drafted in the top 10 is an expectation. Securing the #1 seed and advancing to the Super Bowl with a “scrub” at QB would be an amazing accomplishment for any organization. Just because the Eagles won it all with Nick Foles, it didn’t stop them for going back to Carson Wentz, and he was the starter again the next season. The Vikings had an amazing season any way you slice it and were playing with house money at the end of the year. The GM and coach had already done enough to get their bags before the playoffs started. Winning playoff games would have only increased the bag size. I can’t see any way that they improved their lot by “throwing” the Rams game.
There will absolutely be a Darnold market. The only way there is no market is if no team signs him which will not happen. Either MN brings him back on a one year deal or another team signs him.
100% agreed. Somebody will give Darnold a contract that they later regret. If it is the Vikings, then he will enjoy the success that comes from playing in that system with those weapons. If it is the Raiders, the Jets, the Colts, etc… he will not have a 14-2 record and also be a pro-bowler. I do not have a crystal ball or know how to read tarot cards. It is an opinion. This is a comment section on a rumors website. You will find many opinions here.
Correction on Case Keenum. There was a market of the truly desperate after the 13 win Vikings season in 2017, salary $2 million. In 2018, the Broncos coughed up $36 million to sign Keenum for two years, okay it’s $18 million/year pretty much what I wrote above.
The Broncos cut Keenum after a single season and Keenum went to the Redskins at $7.5 million, where he was promptly canned half way through his first season. Keenum never smelled another starting job with journeyman stints in Cleveland, Buffalo and Houston.
Such will be the fate of Sam Darnold if he flies his Minnesota nest and leave behind the warm wing of Kevin O’Connell.
The recipe on how to wreck Darnold was published years ago. If you’ve watched him, he has great vision, accuracy, and a strong arm, but he cracks under pressure. Now we see why Kyle Shanahan preferred Purdy over Darnold. The Lions and Rams have average defenses and he looked bad. Vikings had very good WRs, a good TE, and a very good D for Darnold to win those games. If he leaves he won’t find a better situation. With McCarthy and D Jones also in the QB room, Darnold should be the odd man out. Some desperate team will grab Darnold.
He was a 1st round pick for a reason a few years ago because he has talent!! The Vikings will be far worse in ‘25 going to McCarthy who is essentially a rookie
McCarthy is probably not the answer in 2025 either. Darnold would be well-advised to do a rerun of last season in the $15 million in Minnesota with Kevin O’Connell. Practice makes perfect, perhaps they’ll do better (a playoff win) in 2025.
Review some of the catches made by the assortment of quality receivers.
In many instances, they made Darnold look better than he actually was.
I can’t imagine titans or jets offering Vikings a decent package for McCarthy an unproven rookie who just did two surgeries and didn’t play one snap of regular season. I also don’t see Minnesota keeping both Darnold and McCarthy at the same time
The draft doesn’t have many QBs ranked high, and not much else in the QB market, unless you want Cousins or Rodgers. McCarthy does have one season under his belt to learn NFL offenses and watch tape. Some team will try to get him.
Exactly what season does McCarthy have under his belt…..somebody willl try and get him, but he’s pimple faced kid who’s never thrown a NFL pass in a game that counted…..
Pimples lmao
There’s very few viable first round QB’s in the 2025 draft. McCarthy is definitely still worth a first if he was worth one last year. Contingent on physical of course.
Possibly Alec. Possibly. I just read a report that some QBs stock are slowly rising including Ewers and Dart from ole miss. Anything is possible this offseason.
Have you watched Ewers sink a very talented Texas team in key moments in key games this season?
Why do you think Ewers will not sink to the occasion in the NFL as well…Ewers is a QB, of whom GM’s should stay well clear.
I haven’t seen Dart play.
Dart isn’t bad his final bowl game he put up huge numbers. His main gripe is slight inconsistency and arm power issues
Unfair to think he gets the Geno smith contract?
Three years for $81 million? No way. It’s in both Darnold’s and his signing club’s interest to keep the next contract short (one or two years). If Darnold outperforms the next contract, he gets paid very well. If he folds like an old deck chair from HMS NYJ, then to backup status and backup money goes Sam.
I would think it’s in Darold’s best interest to sign for as much as he can because of the possibility of not living up to his contract. He knows what its like to not live up to his draft status already.
The winning hand for Darnold would be to run it back again in Minnesota on a one-year contract and win at least one playoff game. At that point, Darnold would be able to sign a four year $160 million mostly guaranteed contract.
But sure, four years for $80 million with $50 million guaranteed is another good option. It would get Darnold a long term home, a solid amount of guaranteed cash and the risk would be manageable for a team. If he plays well on the four year contract, Darnold would still have another prime contract after that one’s done.
Don’t forget that when a team has a competent QB on an affordable long term deal, that team can spend the extra money on a couple of extra upper mid-tier offensive linemen. More time to throw, better running lanes. Everyone looks better, including the QB.
Don’t be surprised if Daniel Jones and JJ are the QBs battling it out next year. 8 months with KOC could be just what Jones needed and weapons.
@Alec Kinnear, why are you & i the only ones talking slants to kill a blitz, why isn’t the paid professional familiar with that pass play or the wr screen ARod used so effectively in Green Bay. Darnold held the ball too long for the last 6 games and his coaches FAILED him. The play calling was TERRIBLE. Why no rollout, moving pockets, max protects, jumbo formation to pick up 3 yards or less. Very POOR coaching on both sides of the ball. How do you not adjust to Gibbs coming out of the backfired after his 1st to? TERRIBLE ALL THE WAY AROUND!
I agree completely. The offense was designed to ensure that Jets got his stats up (e.g., focus entirely on vertical game). Don’t get me wrong, as a fan, that is really exciting. But, once teams have film on you, it’s best to mix it up a little bit. I never saw that. I think it hurt Darnold’s development and future prospects.
The major question is … Can O’Connell with only one year on his deal, hope that McCarthy can take them to the playoffs? Darnold peaked but had the Lions not won 15 games, the Vikings would have had the bye. Winning 14 games could still get him the tag.
KOC will get his extension this offseason.
I wanted Minnesota to keep him, being that I am a Vikings fan it seemed like a gem fell in our lap and perhaps it had. Dude played some incredible football until it really mattered and that reminds me of. Cousins…
I don’t think the cost warrants that potential risk and I’d rather improve the roster and see what JJ has.