Dolphins Likely To Retain Tua Tagovailoa For 2026?

Joining Trevor Lawrence as a summer 2024 extension recipient yet to justify his contract, Tua Tagovailoa has gone through an up-and-down stretch since the ink dried on his megadeal. The high-priced Dolphins quarterback remains in place as the team’s starter, but rumors about his future have created some uncertainty.

Rumblings about the southpaw being benched surfaced after GM Chris Grier‘s exit, and that report indicated uncertainty about whether the polarizing quarterback would be back in Miami for 2026. The guarantees the Dolphins authorized in the July 2024 deal may ensure the former top-five pick receives one more chance.

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Tagovailoa “doesn’t have the best reputation around the league,” per CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones, who points to the Dolphins needing to pay down a significant amount of the QB’s 2026 compensation to facilitate a viable trade. Two anonymous personnel staffers point to Tagovailoa receiving one more chance in Miami, via Jones, with one noting Mike McDaniel remaining in place would give the QB a better shot to stick around.

Like Lawrence, Tagovailoa’s 2026 compensation is fully guaranteed. The Dolphins owe him $54MM next year, complicating a deal. That payment came after back-to-back seasons with Tua finishing in the top five in passer rating and top 10 in QBR. Concussion issues marred Tagovailoa’s breakout 2022 slate and resurfaced soon after he signed his four-year, $212.4MM extension. The Dolphins losing Tyreek Hill to a severe knee injury hurt their offense this season, and Tagovailoa ranks 24th in QBR.

Tua also took heat for criticizing teammates for meeting attendance this season, and although the QB apologized for making that public, Jones notes that contributed to his perception around the NFL. The Dolphins responded to Grier’s firing with a convincing win over the Bills, buying McDaniel more time. They have cleaned house in the front office, however, moving on from two top Grier lieutenants (in co-player personnel directors Adam Engroff and Anthony Hunt). This further muddies the situation for the McDaniel-Tagovailoa partnership, though the QB’s injury history and perception within the league would limit his trade value.

Some QB-needy teams would undoubtedly look into Tagovailoa due to the sample quality play when healthy under McDaniel, but his series of concussions and struggles over the past two seasons would complicate a trade. If the Dolphins do retain the 2020 draftee in 2026 and fire McDaniel, some candidates could certainly express hesitation about the job.

Stephen Ross keeping McDaniel for another season is probably contingent on a strong finish, but it would also mean tying the Grier hire to another GM. As we discussed in a recent Trade Rumors Front Office post, incongruent timelines for HCs and GMs have proven to be a shaky recipe in recent years. But a 2027 Tua separation would be easier for Miami. No guaranteed money is in place for the Alabama alum beyond 2026, and the Dolphins would take on a relatively manageable $31.8MM dead money hit with a 2027 trade or release.

Tagovailoa became the centerpiece of Grier’s rebuild, and the Dolphins have enjoyed some success during his tenure. McDaniel oversaw the first instance of back-to-back playoff berths for the franchise since the team made five straight berths from 1997-2001. But the team has hit a wall. It remains uncertain if McDaniel can do anything to save his job this season, though the Buffalo upset moving the team to 3-7 assuredly helped the talented play-caller’s cause.