As usual, those “way too early” mock drafts and prospect rankings are looking drastically different six months later. Many of those players projected to take huge leaps to first-round stardom have been humbled at the college level, while relative unknowns have begun to make their case for being selected in the top 32. 
Our first look into the 2026 QB options focused mostly on existing tape, though a few inexperienced options were expected to shine. The one everyone will recognize is Longhorns passer Arch Manning. The NFL legacy got off to a rough start in his first season as a full-time starter, completing 55.29 percent of his passes for six touchdowns and three interceptions against Ohio State, San Jose State, and UTEP. He’s since put up some impressive performances against Sam Houston, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt but not without a few duds at Florida and Kentucky peppered in. As a result, scouting opinions on Manning as the potential QB1 of the class have seemingly cooled.
Scouts hoped LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier would continue to put up big numbers while, preferably, lowering his propensity for throwing interceptions; he had a touchdown:interception ratio of 11:7 before becoming a starter and a ratio of 29:12 last year. Nussmeier has failed to fulfill such hopes, going 2-4 in SEC play while throwing seven touchdowns and four interceptions in those games. This past weekend, Nussmeier was benched against the rival Crimson Tide in hopes that Mississippi State transfer Michael Van Buren Jr. could breathe new life into a struggling offense.
In Happy Valley, once promising five-star recruit Drew Allar has also faced a brutal 2025 campaign that could really harm his draft stock. Once lauded as the second quarterback in FBS history to throw for 25 or more touchdowns and two or fewer interceptions, albeit while only completing 59.9 percent of his passes, scouts hoped Allar would finally be able to put it all together with accuracy, production, and strong performances against difficult competition. Allar unfortunately wasn’t able to deliver on these hopes before suffering a season-ending ankle injury.
Of the other college QBs that we mentioned back then, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik has similarly regressed along with his struggling Tigers. South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers has looked like a shell of himself since sustaining an injury in a home loss to Vanderbilt. Nico Iamaleava‘s transfer to UCLA has not resulted in dividends equal to his NIL deal. At Ole Miss, Jaxson Dart‘s successor Austin Simmons lost the starting job to Ferris State transfer Trinidad Chambliss. Lastly, Oklahoma’s John Mateer hasn’t quite captured the magic his fellow Washington State transfer Cam Ward did last year at Miami.
The quarterbacks who have mostly delivered on the expectations placed on them thus far have been the Big 12 trio of Sam Leavitt at Arizona State, Sawyer Robinson at Baylor, and Avery Johnson at Kansas State and Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. In fact, Mendoza hasn’t just met expectations under Curt Cignetti, he’s exceeded them.
According to ESPN’s Matt Miller, Mendoza has “clearly established himself as the top quarterback in the 2026 class.” Miller cites the redshirt junior’s pocket poise, arm talent, and ability to make big plays in crucial moments. Jordan Reid, Miller’s peer at ESPN, tried to temper Miller’s praise based on competition that could still push Mendoza for QB1 honors, but he also lauded the Hoosier’s ideal size and experience as a starter.
The two prospects with potential to unseat Mendoza are redshirt sophomore Dante Moore at Oregon and redshirt junior Ty Simpson at Alabama. Both passers are shorter and lighter than Mendoza. Moore is getting his first starting opportunity since getting benched as a true freshman starter at UCLA in 2023. Simpson’s only starts have come in the nine games he’s played this season. 
Simpson’s inexperience as a starter doesn’t show in his gameplay, though. Completing 66.9 percent of his passes for over 273 yards per game and 21 touchdowns to only one interception, Simpson has shown impressive processing and decision-making abilities in an extremely small sample size. Moore’s play isn’t quite so clean, as his inexperience still shows here and there, but he’s made significant leaps since his days as a Bruin.
Dane Brugler of The Athletic released some midseason draft rankings yesterday, listing only four quarterbacks in his top 50 prospects: Simpson at No. 2, Mendoza at No. 7, Moore at No. 12, and Sellers at No. 15. The lack of starting experience of Simpson and the continued need for development of Moore and Sellers have many believing an additional year of college could be best for all three.
Brugler’s analysis of Mendoza seems to mirror the ambivalence of the ESPN duo as he claims “NFL teams are split on (Mendoza’s) ceiling as a pro.” The 22-year-old has made a significant leap in his move from Berkeley to Bloomington, but some believe he may not develop much further than he already has under Cignetti. That being said, those scouts are still “very encouraged by his floor,” as Brugler puts it, thanks to a high football IQ, strong accuracy, and an even-keeled demeanor.
There is still a month left of college football before bowls and playoff games begin, so there’s still plenty of time for several of the above-mentioned passers to stake their claim as the most-deserving arm. At the moment, though, there are at least some teams who have Mendoza at the top of a currently muddy QB board.
Mendoza is a mixed bag and it is understandable why there is a split. When playing for what on paper is viewed as the better team his yardage is down but TDs up. His INTs are about the same so he dis not throw many. But is he just a good college QB and a middling pro?
Agreed, by a ton. Mendoza could be great, but also could be bad. Most of the QBs this year are so up and down-in increasingly simplistic offenses due to the transfer free for all-that it’s hard to evaluate them in a system. Even if the QB stays and is a pocket passer, like Nussmeier, the pieces around him can change fluidly. It makes it hard to evaluate these guys’ potential in pro offenses today, even with how simplified the pro offenses are getting (in comparison to years’ past) to match the college game.
That said, it feels like Mendoza’s ceiling is going to depend on where he goes. Of course, that’s true overall for most players, but you can see a lot of talent on Mendoza’s throws and patience on many plays. There is certainly talent present, but how much that translates to the pro game is going to depend on where he goes. It’s early to say now-the college playoffs have to even to be seeded-but Mendoza’s future is going to heavily depend on which team picks him. I can totally understand the uncertainty in that regard, and I don’t see the majority of Mendoza’s college competition being that much ahead of him-if ahead of him at all to begin with.
2026 QB class is stacked with flame throwers, could one of the best we’ve seen in decades.
I think OCs will trip over themselves in a race for a cerebral field general like Mendoza. In the age of Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, Will Levis etc. I think offensive coordinators want QBs who will step up in the pocket and run the offense as instructed. These fast big arm QBs are not getting the job done.
None of the college QBs are day 1 starters, but many can be very good.
A ceiling discussion? No QB from Indiana has been drafted before the 6th round…lol.
The noticeable decline in NFL QB quality seems to trace exactly with colleges all moving to gimmick offenses.
Agreed. It’s hard, though, for a coordinator/coach who wants to do more today with players who will transfer after a year (or less). Those gimmicky, athletic offenses are quick and easy, and recruiting players comes down to spotlight offered and NIL. It’s really hard to keep a guy long enough to teach him a good offense, and even if you have him that long, you’ll need his teammates to be there long enough to do the same.
This isn’t a defense of the gimmick offense, by the way. I agree with you entirely.I hate the trend, personally, and it makes for players even worse when (if) they go to the draft.
It’s not just the colleges. Bears been running some dopey gimmick plays sending Williams out as a receiver. Ridiculous, but every OC wants to prove he can be a genius…lol.
I see a good player in Mendoza, but I don’t see him as dominant.
Anyone that tells you they are good at evaluating QB is full of it. So I take zero stock in this article and future ones like it. QB is the worst coached position in any sport an with that being said, these kids are at the mercy of what team they get drafted by as far as if they pan out right away or need some time to develop. To use Mendoza as an example, his career will be very different based on if he is drafted by the Rams than if he’s drafted by the Jets (I am a Jet fan for the record lol)
Allar has the tools and physical markers you want. Steelers should look for him late 1 or early 2.
Except for he was not productive and is very inaccurate. By all means, take him as a project but definitely not earlier than round 4 if he declares
What was Josh Allen’s completion % at Wyoming?
Will he be Josh Allen? Who knows. He is the same height and weight that Josh was listed at in college.
He also has a lower INT rate and a similar TD rate.