It is looking increasingly likely that Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza will be the first college QB to hear his name called in the 2026 draft, and he bolstered his case on Saturday by leading the Hoosiers to a victory over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. Unsurprisingly, multiple sources have told Tony Pauline of EssentiallySports.com that Mendoza will declare for the draft.
In addition to the stellar season Mendoza is having, which has him firmly in the mix for the Heisman Trophy, several of the other top passers who are eligible for the draft appear headed back to campus in 2026. According to Pauline, there is an “overwhelming belief” that Oregon’s Dante Moore will return to the Ducks next season, where the 20-year-old has an eight-figure NIL package waiting for him. In addition to the money, Moore could use more time to continue developing and growing into the potential that his elite physical tools create.
Like Moore, Alabama’s Ty Simpson does not have a great deal of starting experience, and he could therefore stand to benefit from another year in college (where he will remain under the tutelage of renowned offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Ryan Grubb). Although much can obviously change in a year’s time, Moore and Simpson project as early frontrunners for the 2027 Heisman, and Pauline hears that Simpson is also likely to forego the NFL draft for another season.
However, as ESPN’s Rich Cimini observes, Mendoza, Moore, and Simpson are the consensus top QB prospects for 2026, and ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid says there is a substantial drop-off between that trio and the next tier of signal-callers. So if Moore and Simpson do not declare, then Mendoza will essentially comprise a one-man class, which will make his decision to turn pro even easier.
It will also drive up the price to acquire the right to draft him. As of the time of this writing, the Titans have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft, but they just selected Cam Ward with the top pick in 2025 and will continue to develop him in the hopes he can become their franchise QB. They could demand a hefty trade package for their top choice if teams like the Jets, Browns, Raiders, or Saints decide Mendoza is their guy.
We recently learned that evaluators are split on Mendoza’s professional ceiling, but the need to find a quality quarterback always leads to overvaluation of college passers. Plus, it’s not as if the California transfer has not earned the mantle of best QB in his class. He boasts a 71.5% completion percentage along with an FBS-leading 33 passing touchdowns (against just six interceptions) and 10.66 air yards per attempt. And while his stats in the Ohio State victory do not jump off the page (15/23, 222 yards, one TD, one interception), his mettle in leading the Hoosiers to victory in a championship game against an elite defense surely caught the attention of NFL front offices.
We know that Jets GM Darren Mougey has already scouted Mendoza in person – Mougey witnessed the 22-year-old engineer a dramatic comeback win over Penn State – and Mendoza will continue to be one of the most-discussed prospects in the run-up to the draft. The same could be true of South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, who is having a disappointing year but who is still viewed as a late first-round pick, per Pauline. Sources close to Sellers believe there is too much risk for him in returning to college and perhaps reducing his draft stock even further, so he may make the decision to declare.
Woahh this is kinda huge. They were the only other guys who are even in the first round discussion right now.
Part of the problem with the current sports media landscape is they talk about so many guys who had a very small chance of ever declaring this year. Manning, Moore, Simpson, all were going to return. I swear these journalists have goldfish memories where in one moment they talk about the trend towards lots of college starts and seasoning being the key to success in the NFL and in the next breath say how guys might declare after one year.
I’m a senior citizen and there are days I wish I had the memory of a goldfish 🙂
FM to the jets I can already see it
They have so much ammunition for a trade up. I wonder if the Browns could match them but the bidding could go up quickly if the Saints, Cards or Raiders start getting involved.
Tons of picks fo sure
If the Jets close out the season like they’re playing today, they may not need to move up much to get Mendoza.
Browns have their QB in Sanders…let the Jets overpay for Mendoza…..
He should go Eli on them and refuse to play for that morbid franchise.
Hahahah
Some team is going to be very disappointed after spending top pick on him.
Agreed! As long as it’s the Jets and NOT my Browns, I don’t care…there are better, sleeper QB’S in this draft for later rounds where it could be a huge bargain for a team looking to improve at QB…
I like Mendoza, but if the Jets have to trade another first to move up to take him, I’m not so sure.
Moore is super talented and has performed great, but another year in school would make sense. But his offensive coordinator is leaving for a HC job.
Simpson could use more experience, though he’d be playing college ball after graduating, which is always funny to me.
Sellers would be selling low to come out now, I think. He should transfer somewhere with more support around him.
One of Simpson or Moore will declare. I don’t buy that these guys would definitely prefer to stay in college another year & defer their potential for an early mega-deal in the NFL. It may be professionally the correct choice, to develop more etc.
Would you rather live in Alabama for another year or be a top 3 draft pick? Lol… Oregon, I could imagine that.
Well Moore is only 20 and if he declared, he would surely go to a team that will rush him to start, ruining his career…. vs staying at Oregon one more year and learning more before heading to the 2027 draft…his cash will be there regardless, but he has a bit better chance of a longer NFL career if he gains more experience IMO
Mendoza seems like a nice kid, but also comes off dorky. I hope he goes to a friendly fanbase.
Yeah, I was thinking after the post-game interview yesterday that I don’t need to hear this guy interviewed again… At least, not for a while.
He would be best in the south or the midwest. I’ve lived a lot of places in the US, and I have no issue with how he comes off, but that “awww shucks, thanks mom and dad and Jesus” personality won’t play well in NYC unless he’s good right off the bat.
Well isn’t that special 😅 please let the Jets overpay to draft Mendoza 🤞
“Sources close to Sellers believe there is too much risk for him in returning to college and perhaps reducing his draft stock even further, so he may make the decision to declare.”
So basically, “I’m probably not good enough and I won’t risk proving that by playing another year in college.” Smart business move, though!
I don’t get that. I think with another season at USC Sellers could be the top QB next year. They had a down year and a brutal schedule and if they could beef up that line some in the transfer portal I like him next year.
Fun fact: 9 QBs from Indiana have been drafted in the past and 4 of them were selected by Washington. The earliest any of those QBs was selected was the 168th pick (Babe Laufenberg 1983).
Good old Babe. I remember him as Aikman’s backup in Tecmo Super Bowl.
Wow
No chance Moore is getting 8 figures for one season in college.
There’s Cinderella stories then there’s the Indiana Hoosiers football program last 2 yrs. Amazing what buying talent will do in the NIL/Transfer portal era
remember when tanking for manning was all the rage ? how quickly fortunes change .. has anybody checked in on nussmeier lately ?