Texas QB Arch Manning Not QB1 For 2027?
It’s not often PFR has a deep catalogue of posts on a college player before they’re drafted. Usually a prospect has a few visits registered, maybe a Prospect Profile. Texas quarterback Arch Manning, though, has been heavily featured for over a year now, and he’s still just under a year away from maybe being drafted. Draft pundits over-anticipated Manning’s early potential a year ago, but some recent reports from Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer made an attempt to halt the hype.
By no means is anyone under the illusion that Manning is a bad quarterback, but a year after he was being prematurely heralded as a future No. 1 overall pick, Breer sought the opinions of NFL personnel professionals to gauge Manning’s outlook for next year. At the moment, Manning is widely viewed as a good (not great) NFL prospect at the quarterback position. It doesn’t mean he’ll stay that way, but NFL decision makers aren’t going to be blinded by the nameplate on the back of his jersey and forego evaluations.
Initial high expectations weren’t completely unwarranted after Manning displayed some strong performances in Austin as a backup to Quinn Ewers. As a redshirt freshman, Manning lived up to his last name in early garbage time snaps against Colorado State and UTSA. Over those two contests, he completed 14 of 18 pass attempts for 318 passing yards and five touchdown passes, adding 53 rushing yards and two more scores on the ground. His first two starts came due to a Ewers injury, and after a shaky starting debut against Louisiana-Monroe (15-for-19, 258 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions), he turned things around with an impressive SEC debut against Mississippi State (26-for-31, 325 yards, two passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown).
Starting the his 2025 campaign under the brightest of spotlights, Manning resembled the version of himself that struggled against the Warhawks. Over the first five games of the season, he completed under 60 percent of his passes in three contests, throwing 11 touchdowns to five interceptions and losing two of those games. Over the next eight games, Manning looked much more like the man that walked the Bulldogs. Even in two games over that stretch in which he completed less than 50 percent of his passes, Manning stayed mistake-free with no interceptions while pulling out wins in both games.
That seemed to be the key for Manning and the thing scouts were relieved to see. Despite his early struggles against subpar competition, Manning showed improvement from week to week. He continued to show more poise in the pocket, allowing plays to develop as designed and trusting the abilities of himself and his offensive line. That said, his consistency with accuracy could benefit from a big step forward, and his decision-making under pressure is still a concern. If he continues to improve week after week again this year, there’s no reason he can’t continue to brighten his future.
How bright can that future get, though? While Manning will have every opportunity to follow in the footsteps of his uncles, who were both No. 1 overall picks out of their respective SEC schools, he is far from being considered a sure thing. Breer’s NFL source compared Manning to a former No. 1 overall pick that replaced a Manning as the franchise QB in Indianapolis, Andrew Luck. Luck was considered to be “freaky smart, a freaky athlete” with an extremely high floor. While Manning’s floor isn’t considered to be necessarily low, it’s not as high as Luck’s, With his current abilities and knack for improving, though, there’s belief Manning’s ceiling could match those of Luck and his ancestors.
With the Manning-hype being lowered to a simmer, Breer offers that Oregon passer Dante Moore is currently viewed as “the top guy going into the 2026 college season.” As far as ceilings go, Moore’s may not reach those of Luck or even Manning, but last year, he showed far more consistency than Manning and was even considered a potential first-round option in this year’s draft before ultimately opting to return to school.
Coveted 2027 Draft Picks May Complicate Draft Day Trades
We’re days away from the 2026 NFL Draft, and rumors indicate that the first round of the event has the potential to be wild with several teams eager to trade up, according to NFL insider Jordan Schultz, and multiple teams willing to move back. Schultz goes on to say, though, that trade agreements may be difficult to reach as teams appear to be overly attached to their top 2027 NFL Draft picks.
Now, this far out, any trade conversations are mostly going to be preliminary; unless an organization is trading up to Nos. 2 or 3, an element of surprise is crucial in making sure the teams they’re trading past don’t have an opportunity to get back in front of them. Once Thursday rolls around, tunes may change as the intensity of the moment drives up adrenaline, but right now, there’s a serious lack of interest in relinquishing a first-round pick for next year. Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post posits that an elite upcoming draft class is the cause for hesitation.
Similar claims were made in the run up to and aftermath of the 2025 NFL Draft, when QB-needy teams stayed conservative, trusting that the talent of the 2026 class would be much improved from the group that produced only two first-round rookie passers. A year later, after disappointing campaigns for LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Texas’ Arch Manning, and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, the 2026 class will likely only produce one Day 1 QB. If Alabama’s Ty Simpson is able to sneak into the first round, then this year’s class will match the class it was meant to outperform.
The entire 2026 draft class (not just quarterbacks) has been largely viewed as thin, so Dunleavy’s assertion that teams are looking to hold out for a potentially deeper class next year is starting to sound like an eerily similar song. Dunleavy specifically noted 13 players expected to lead this talented group. One of them is a player that was supposed to be leading this year’s prospect pool, so highlighting them again here shows an impressive lack of superstition.
Once again, Manning is the first name mentioned. After initially exciting with flashes of potential playing alongside starter Quinn Ewers, Manning’s first year as the starter got off to a rough start. He turned things around as the season ground on, and he carries strong momentum into next year. Dunleavy also mentioned Oregon’s Dante Moore and Ole Miss sensation Trinidad Chambliss. Both passers were initially expected to give Simpson a run for QB2 honors in this year’s draft before opting to return for another year of college.The last quarterback mentioned was Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, who will be newly eligible for the draft after the completion of his redshirt sophomore season.
The wide receivers of the 2027 class will also generate enormous expectations leading up to their potential final seasons of college ball. Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has been the expected WR1 of this class since his first game in Columbus. Though the Buckeyes produced first-round pass catcher Emeka Egbuka in 2025, and Carnell Tate is currently projected to be WR1 of this year’s crop, Smith has been the dominant WR1 of the Ohio State receiving corps both years. His receiving stats of the past two seasons, totaling 163 receptions, 2,558 yards, and 27 touchdowns, dwarfed the contributions that made his teammates first-rounders.
Smith is joined by Alabama’s Ryan Williams and new Longhorns wide receiver Cam Coleman. Williams showed brilliance in his true freshman year with the Crimson Tide but suffered a sophomore slump no one saw coming. If he can regain his dominance from 2024, he’ll easily work himself into first-round consideration. Coleman has shown increasing potential in two years at Auburn. A final season in Austin with Manning will give him a chance to enter Day 1 talks, as well.
Oregon tight end Jamari Johnson is already being touted as a potentially better prospect than this year’s expected first-round tight end out of Eugene, Kenyon Sadiq. The transfer from Louisville is looking to help enter the Ducks into TEU conversations. Lastly for the offense, Dunleavy highlighted Texas offensive tackle Trevor Goolsby, who has played on both sides of the line and allowed just one sack in 2025.
On defense, Dunleavy has listed edge rushers Colin Simmons from Texas and Dylan Stewart from South Carolina, defensive tackle David Stone out of Oklahoma, and cornerback Leonard Moore from Notre Dame. Simmons has led the Longhorns defense in sacks in each of his two years in Austin, totaling 21.0. Stewart hasn’t been as dominant for the Gamecocks, but his 11.0 career sacks and 22.5 tackles for loss in two seasons show just how disruptive he can be.
Stone exploded onto the scene for the Sooners in 2025, recording 8.5 tackles for loss to go along with 1.5 sacks. Moore impressed as a freshman for the Fighting Irish with 11 passes defensed, two interceptions, and two forced fumbles then kept going with five interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), seven passes defensed, and another forced fumble en route to All-American honors in Year 2.
Based on our crystal clear hindsight, let’s promise not to anoint anyone too early. Most of the 13 incredibly talented student athletes above were underclassmen this past year. If they continue their meteoric trajectory, they’ll get their flowers throughout the pre-draft process next year. If they fail to live up to the loftiest of expectations, though, they are still young, and should have the grace of every year of their amateur eligibility before final judgements are placed on them. Regardless, it appears teams will think twice before giving up the ability to be in position to draft one of these names next year.
Oregon QB Dante Moore Will Not Enter 2026 NFL Draft
Quarterback Dante Moore will not enter the 2026 NFL Draft. Moore announced on Wednesday that he will return to Oregon for his junior season.
This is a major blow to teams aiming to use a high pick on a quarterback in this year’s draft. Before Moore decided to stay in school, he and Indiana’s Heisman Trophy-winning signal-caller, Fernando Mendoza, were considered locks to go near the top of the draft. With Moore out of the picture, Mendoza is undoubtedly the No. 1 option heading into the proceedings. It seems likely the Raiders will take him first overall.
The Jets (second), Cardinals (third) and Browns (sixth) are other clubs that could conceivably choose a QB in the top 10, but the likelihood of that has decreased with Moore remaining at Oregon. Moore’s NIL valuation checks in at approximately $2.3MM, per On3. That surely made it easier for Moore to delay his NFL career, though he may be leaving a substantial amount of money on the table for the time being. Regardless, the 20-year-old could benefit from further seasoning at the college level.
Before jumping to the pros in 2027, Moore will aim to build on a breakout campaign in which he completed 71.8% of passes and threw for 3,565 yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Moore guided Oregon to a 13-2 record, but Mendoza’s Hoosiers ended the Ducks’ season with a 56-22 blowout in the College Football Playoff semifinal.
Moore, whom ESPN’s Mel Kiper ranked as the second-best prospect in this year’s class, may end up as part of a deeper group of draft-eligible QBs next year. Texas’ Arch Manning and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers represent other potential high picks in 2027. Meanwhile, it’s unknown if any QBs other than Mendoza will come off the board in the first round this year. Alabama’s Ty Simpson and Mississippi’s Trinidad Chambliss, who now round out Kiper’s top three prospects at the position, are among names to watch. Unfortunately for teams in dire need of a franchise QB, neither looks like a slam-dunk first-rounder right now.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza Expected To Declare For 2026 NFL Draft; Dante Moore, Ty Simpson Likely To Return To School
It is looking increasingly likely that Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza will be the first college QB to hear his name called in the 2026 draft, and he bolstered his case on Saturday by leading the Hoosiers to a victory over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. Unsurprisingly, multiple sources have told Tony Pauline of EssentiallySports.com that Mendoza will declare for the draft.
In addition to the stellar season Mendoza is having, which has him firmly in the mix for the Heisman Trophy, several of the other top passers who are eligible for the draft appear headed back to campus in 2026. According to Pauline, there is an “overwhelming belief” that Oregon’s Dante Moore will return to the Ducks next season, where the 20-year-old has an eight-figure NIL package waiting for him. In addition to the money, Moore could use more time to continue developing and growing into the potential that his elite physical tools create.
Like Moore, Alabama’s Ty Simpson does not have a great deal of starting experience, and he could therefore stand to benefit from another year in college (where he will remain under the tutelage of renowned offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Ryan Grubb). Although much can obviously change in a year’s time, Moore and Simpson project as early frontrunners for the 2027 Heisman, and Pauline hears that Simpson is also likely to forego the NFL draft for another season.
However, as ESPN’s Rich Cimini observes, Mendoza, Moore, and Simpson are the consensus top QB prospects for 2026, and ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid says there is a substantial drop-off between that trio and the next tier of signal-callers. So if Moore and Simpson do not declare, then Mendoza will essentially comprise a one-man class, which will make his decision to turn pro even easier.
It will also drive up the price to acquire the right to draft him. As of the time of this writing, the Titans have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft, but they just selected Cam Ward with the top pick in 2025 and will continue to develop him in the hopes he can become their franchise QB. They could demand a hefty trade package for their top choice if teams like the Jets, Browns, Raiders, or Saints decide Mendoza is their guy.
We recently learned that evaluators are split on Mendoza’s professional ceiling, but the need to find a quality quarterback always leads to overvaluation of college passers. Plus, it’s not as if the California transfer has not earned the mantle of best QB in his class. He boasts a 71.5% completion percentage along with an FBS-leading 33 passing touchdowns (against just six interceptions) and 10.66 air yards per attempt. And while his stats in the Ohio State victory do not jump off the page (15/23, 222 yards, one TD, one interception), his mettle in leading the Hoosiers to victory in a championship game against an elite defense surely caught the attention of NFL front offices.
We know that Jets GM Darren Mougey has already scouted Mendoza in person – Mougey witnessed the 22-year-old engineer a dramatic comeback win over Penn State – and Mendoza will continue to be one of the most-discussed prospects in the run-up to the draft. The same could be true of South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, who is having a disappointing year but who is still viewed as a late first-round pick, per Pauline. Sources close to Sellers believe there is too much risk for him in returning to college and perhaps reducing his draft stock even further, so he may make the decision to declare.
Jets GM Darren Mougey Has Scouted QBs Fernando Mendoza, Dante Moore In Person; Latest On Team’s 2026 QB Plans
If the season ended today, the 2-9 Jets would hold the No. 3 overall pick in the 2026 draft. Even if they do not end up with that pick – and it is certainly feasible they lose enough games down the stretch to find themselves even higher on the draft board – they should be in prime position to select one of next year’s top quarterback prospects.
To that end, GM Darren Mougey has scouted Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore in person, as ESPN’s Rich Cimini writes. Unfortunately for Mougey, the 2026 class of signal-callers, once viewed as a promising one, has seen its stock drop over the course of the 2025 season.
Mendoza has been among the most impressive collegiate QBs and is viewed by many as the top prospect likely to declare for the 2026 draft. Although the game that Mougey attended featured Mendoza leading a dramatic, game-winning drive against Penn State, opinions are split on his ceiling at the NFL level. Moore, meanwhile, is only 20 and could benefit from another year of development in the college ranks.
If players like Moore, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, and Texas’ Arch Manning decide to stay in school for one more season, that will strengthen a 2027 class that is already set to include Florida’s DJ Lagway and Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola. We had heard one of the reasons Mougey was willing to accept a 2027 first-round pick from the Cowboys in this month’s Quinnen Williams trade was because of his belief that the ‘27 draft class offers more promise than its ‘26 counterpart. So, while the first-year GM is obviously doing his due diligence, he may wait another year to make a high-end draft investment in a QB (though Cimini says in a separate piece that there is “growing buzz” in league circles connecting Mendoza to the Jets).
Whether it is Mendoza or someone else, Cimini thinks the Jets will add a rookie QB in the 2026 draft, and he also believes Mougey will acquire a veteran passer. Despite the fact that Justin Fields’ 2026 salary includes $10MM in guaranteed money, Cimini indicates Mougey will likely release the recently-demoted signal-caller – which jibes with previous reports on the matter – and will not try to re-sign his replacement, Tyrod Taylor.
As per usual, the 2026 crop of free agents offers little by way of starting-caliber quarterbacks, and the one that does qualify as such, Daniel Jones, may not make it to free agency. Mougey could therefore look to the trade market to acquire a bridge passer, and Cimini names Kyler Murray, Mac Jones, and Kirk Cousins as potential targets (Murray and Jones, at least, could also be in the Vikings’ crosshairs).
UDFA rookie Brady Cook has spent most of the year on the Jets’ practice squad, though he has been elevated on several occasions to operate as a backup (he has not, however, seen any regular season game action). In response to a question about whether Cook would get into a game in 2025, head coach Aaron Glenn conceded it was a possibility, but he offered no guarantees.