It’s not often PFR has a deep catalogue of posts on a college player before they’re drafted. Usually a prospect has a few visits registered, maybe a Prospect Profile. Texas quarterback Arch Manning, though, has been heavily featured for over a year now, and he’s still just under a year away from maybe being drafted. Draft pundits over-anticipated Manning’s early potential a year ago, but some recent reports from Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer made an attempt to halt the hype.
By no means is anyone under the illusion that Manning is a bad quarterback, but a year after he was being prematurely heralded as a future No. 1 overall pick, Breer sought the opinions of NFL personnel professionals to gauge Manning’s outlook for next year. At the moment, Manning is widely viewed as a good (not great) NFL prospect at the quarterback position. It doesn’t mean he’ll stay that way, but NFL decision makers aren’t going to be blinded by the nameplate on the back of his jersey and forego evaluations.
Initial high expectations weren’t completely unwarranted after Manning displayed some strong performances in Austin as a backup to Quinn Ewers. As a redshirt freshman, Manning lived up to his last name in early garbage time snaps against Colorado State and UTSA. Over those two contests, he completed 14 of 18 pass attempts for 318 passing yards and five touchdown passes, adding 53 rushing yards and two more scores on the ground. His first two starts came due to a Ewers injury, and after a shaky starting debut against Louisiana-Monroe (15-for-19, 258 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions), he turned things around with an impressive SEC debut against Mississippi State (26-for-31, 325 yards, two passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown).
Starting the his 2025 campaign under the brightest of spotlights, Manning resembled the version of himself that struggled against the Warhawks. Over the first five games of the season, he completed under 60 percent of his passes in three contests, throwing 11 touchdowns to five interceptions and losing two of those games. Over the next eight games, Manning looked much more like the man that walked the Bulldogs. Even in two games over that stretch in which he completed less than 50 percent of his passes, Manning stayed mistake-free with no interceptions while pulling out wins in both games.
That seemed to be the key for Manning and the thing scouts were relieved to see. Despite his early struggles against subpar competition, Manning showed improvement from week to week. He continued to show more poise in the pocket, allowing plays to develop as designed and trusting the abilities of himself and his offensive line. That said, his consistency with accuracy could benefit from a big step forward, and his decision-making under pressure is still a concern. If he continues to improve week after week again this year, there’s no reason he can’t continue to brighten his future.
How bright can that future get, though? While Manning will have every opportunity to follow in the footsteps of his uncles, who were both No. 1 overall picks out of their respective SEC schools, he is far from being considered a sure thing. Breer’s NFL source compared Manning to a former No. 1 overall pick that replaced a Manning as the franchise QB in Indianapolis, Andrew Luck. Luck was considered to be “freaky smart, a freaky athlete” with an extremely high floor. While Manning’s floor isn’t considered to be necessarily low, it’s not as high as Luck’s, With his current abilities and knack for improving, though, there’s belief Manning’s ceiling could match those of Luck and his ancestors.
With the Manning-hype being lowered to a simmer, Breer offers that Oregon passer Dante Moore is currently viewed as “the top guy going into the 2026 college season.” As far as ceilings go, Moore’s may not reach those of Luck or even Manning, but last year, he showed far more consistency than Manning and was even considered a potential first-round option in this year’s draft before ultimately opting to return to school.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Arch broke out and was QB1. It wouldn’t surprise me if he stayed in school another year. He’s already got a national ad campaign and family money. His uncles both started more than two years in college.
Beyond that, if Dante Moore takes another step this year, it will be very hard for anyone to pass him. Also curious to see what Mestemaker looks like in a real conference.
I agree that anything could happen, There is no rush. I’m sure he is doing fine with NIL money. Waiting a year might be best. He certainly doesn’t have very far to go for advice.
I’m the most excited to see Mest awesome story really hoping he continues to ball out. I also think there’s a good possibility he ends up QB1 in 2028